Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Polyolefins - PP and PE show a supply contraction trend, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations, leading to continuous inventory reduction. However, there is still overall inventory pressure. In the short term, pay attention to the support from inventory reduction. For PP in the medium term, consider short - selling when the price rebounds to the 7200 - 7300 range [2] Urea - The core driver of the urea market is the resonance of export policies and international events. The secondary drivers are short - term supply contraction and cost reduction. The market is expected to stabilize after a decline, and it is necessary to track factors such as Indian tender results, Chinese quota policy changes, and port shipping progress [4] Crude Oil - Recent oil prices have weakened due to the decline in risk premiums, and the market is weighing the potential OPEC+ production increase plan, the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation, and the uncertainty of US tariff conflicts. The supply is expected to be loose, and the oil price is likely to fluctuate widely in the next week. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [7] Chlor - alkali - For caustic soda, the short - term decline driver is insufficient, and the market may fluctuate repeatedly. In the medium term, there may be new production capacity, and the price upside is limited. For PVC, the short - term contradiction is not intensified, but the over - supply problem is prominent in the long - term. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities in the medium term [12] Methanol - The methanol market shows a differentiation between ports and the inland. The upside and downside of methanol prices are limited, and interval trading is recommended [29] Styrene - The pure benzene market is weak, and the styrene market is stable. There is pressure on the supply - demand margin of styrene, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities for styrene driven by raw material factors [34] Polyester - PX is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term. PTA is supported by raw materials but has limited self - driving force. Ethylene glycol supply is turning loose, and the price is expected to be weak. Short - fiber has weak supply - demand, and bottle - chip supply - demand may improve [39] Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2601, PP2601, and PP2509 prices decreased, while L2509 increased slightly. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 and PP2509 - 2601 increased [2] - **Supply and Demand**: PP and PE supply contracted, with increasing PP maintenance losses and low PE import expectations. The overall inventory decreased [2] Urea - **Price and Spread**: The prices of some futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The long - short positions of the top 20 traders and the long - short ratio also changed [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The daily and weekly production of urea decreased, and the plant and port inventories decreased. The production start - up rate decreased [4] Crude Oil - **Price and Spread**: Brent, WTI, and SC prices changed, and the spreads between different varieties and different months also changed [7] - **Supply and Demand**: OPEC+ may increase production in August, and the market is concerned about the progress of the Iran nuclear negotiation and US tariff conflicts [7] Chlor - alkali - **Price and Spread**: The prices of caustic soda and PVC products changed, and the spreads between contracts and the basis also changed [11] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC production increased, and the downstream start - up rate of caustic soda and PVC products changed. The inventory of caustic soda and PVC decreased or increased slightly [11][12] Methanol - **Price and Spread**: The prices of methanol futures contracts and the spread between contracts changed. The basis and regional spreads also changed [29] - **Supply and Demand**: The methanol market is differentiated between ports and the inland. The port may face inventory pressure, while the inland may see reduced supply pressure in July [29] Styrene - **Price and Spread**: The prices of styrene upstream raw materials, spot, and futures changed, and the basis and spread between contracts also changed [31][32] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the styrene industry chain changed, and the inventory of some products increased [34] Polyester - **Price and Spread**: The prices of upstream raw materials, downstream polyester products, and related spreads in the polyester industry chain changed [39] - **Supply and Demand**: The start - up rate of the polyester industry chain changed, and the supply - demand situation of PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, and bottle - chip is different [39]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - PVC: After the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East eases, the PVC market returns to fundamentals. The supply - demand situation remains weak, with supply in excess and cost - side support lacking. Although exports are stable, domestic demand is weak, and social inventory has stopped falling and started to rise [3]. - Caustic soda: The supply pressure is expected to increase, downstream procurement is not active, and the inventory of liquid caustic soda has risen. The caustic soda market lacks positive drivers, and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit still has room to compress [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4872 yuan/ton (+1). The East China basis is - 142 yuan/ton (-1), and the South China basis is - 42 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. Production Profit - Upstream: The semi - coke price is 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+0), and the calcium carbide profit is 130 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - PVC production: The gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC production is - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of ethylene - based PVC production is - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit is - 0.6 dollars/ton (+0.4) [1]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The in - plant PVC inventory is 40.2 tons (+0.5), and the social PVC inventory is 35.5 tons (+0.0) [1]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.43% (+0.81%), the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 67.38% (-1.85%), and the overall PVC operation rate is 76.81% (+0.07%) [1]. Downstream Orders - The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 64.8 tons (+1.0) [1]. Caustic Soda Market Price and Basis - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2311 yuan/ton (+32), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 127 yuan/ton (-32) [1]. - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. Production Profit - Single - product profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1446 yuan/ton (+0) [2]. - Comprehensive profit: The comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 823.3 yuan/ton (+40.0), the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 111.28 yuan/ton (+0.00), and the comprehensive chlor - alkali profit in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1233.53 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2]. Inventory and Operation Rate - Inventory: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories is 39.04 tons (+2.39), and the inventory of flake caustic soda factories is 2.58 tons (-0.27) [2]. - Operation rate: The operation rate of caustic soda is 82.50% (+1.30%) [2]. Downstream Operation Rate - Alumina operation rate is 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 60.38% (-0.35%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 78.57% (-2.23%) [2].

Group 1 - The conference titled "Stable Enterprises and Safe Agriculture: Empowering the Chlor-Alkali Industry through Green Sustainable Development" was successfully held, gathering over 80 experts and representatives from the chlor-alkali industry to discuss new trends, opportunities, and challenges in the sector [1][2] - The importance of the chlor-alkali industry as a crucial part of the basic chemical sector was emphasized, highlighting its stability as vital for the real economy [1][2] - The use of futures as a risk management tool was discussed, with a focus on how it can help companies effectively respond to market price fluctuations and enhance operational stability [1][2] Group 2 - The Secretary-General of the Futures Association highlighted the irreplaceable role of the futures market in serving the real economy and promoting industrial upgrades, noting the significant achievements of chlor-alkali companies in Shandong Province through practical experience in the futures market [2] - The Executive Vice President of the Chlor-Alkali Industry Association provided an analysis of the current operational status of the chlor-alkali industry’s upstream and downstream product chains, emphasizing the importance of futures tools for future development [2] - A detailed presentation on how futures tools can empower caustic soda companies for innovation and breakthroughs was given, showcasing new development ideas for companies in a complex market environment [2] Group 3 - A roundtable forum was held, featuring discussions among industry leaders on current market conditions, issues and experiences in the practice of futures and spot combination, and future development trends in the chlor-alkali industry [3] - The successful hosting of the conference provided a valuable platform for communication and cooperation within the chlor-alkali industry, promoting the in-depth application of the futures-spot combination concept [3] - Future collaboration among various stakeholders was emphasized to contribute to the prosperous development of the chlor-alkali industry [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral [4] 2. Core Views - The PVC market remains in a weak supply - demand situation, with the supply surplus unchanged and cost - side support weak, while the caustic soda market faces increasing supply pressure and lack of positive drivers [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,871 yuan/ton (+27), the East China basis was - 141 yuan/ton (-27), and the South China basis was - 41 yuan/ton (-17) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (+0), and the South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4,830 yuan/ton (+10) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the gross profit of PVC calcium carbide - based production was - 494 yuan/ton (+18), the gross profit of PVC ethylene - based production was - 640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was - 1.0 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [1] - Inventory and开工: PVC factory inventory was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), social inventory was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the calcium carbide - based PVC开工 rate was 79.62% (-0.83%), the ethylene - based PVC开工 rate was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall PVC开工 rate was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,279 yuan/ton (+5), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 159 yuan/ton (-5) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 111.28 yuan/ton (+20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,233.53 yuan/ton (-50.51) [2] - Inventory and开工: The liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the caustic soda开工 rate was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Downstream开工: The alumina开工 rate was 80.74% (-0.13%), the dyeing and printing East China开工 rate was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the viscose staple fiber开工 rate was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The supply - demand pattern remains weak, with the supply surplus unchanged due to high production and expected new capacity in 6 - 7 months, and the cost - side support is weak. The downstream demand is weak domestically, while the export is increasing, but the sustainability of exports is uncertain [3] Caustic Soda - The supply pressure is expected to increase due to planned new capacity, the market trading is weak, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali is shrinking. The demand of the main downstream alumina is increasing, but the non - aluminum downstream demand is weak. The factory inventory is still high, and the caustic soda market lacks positive drivers [3] Strategy - PVC: Adopt a cautiously bearish approach and continue to monitor macro - export policies and downstream demand recovery [4] - Caustic Soda: The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress, with the market remaining under pressure [4]

Core Viewpoint - The credit rating agency has assigned a stable outlook to Zhejiang Zhenyang Development Co., Ltd. (stock code: 603213.SH), considering its competitive cost structure due to location advantages and energy consumption control, despite facing challenges such as declining profitability and increasing leverage [3][4]. Company Overview - Zhejiang Zhenyang is the only chlor-alkali enterprise in the Ningbo Petrochemical Economic and Technological Development Zone, benefiting from rich customer resources and convenient transportation [3][4]. - The company has a total asset value of 33.48 billion yuan as of March 2025, with total debt at 4.64 billion yuan and equity attributable to shareholders at 19.60 billion yuan [3]. Financial Performance - The company reported a significant increase in operating income, reaching 28.99 billion yuan in 2023, but net profit decreased by 23.42% year-on-year due to declining sales margins [3][4]. - The EBITDA interest coverage ratio was 13.77 in 2023, indicating strong ability to cover interest expenses [3]. Industry Environment - The chlor-alkali industry is experiencing a mixed demand scenario, with the production of caustic soda expected to grow, but prices may remain volatile due to supply and demand dynamics [7][8]. - The overall production capacity of caustic soda in China is projected to increase by approximately 447,000 tons in 2025, with a growth rate of about 8.9% [8][9]. Market Dynamics - The company faces pressure from increased competition in the PVC market, with a projected decline in profitability due to high inventory levels and weak downstream demand [10][11]. - The price of liquid chlorine has been fluctuating, and the market for PVC remains under pressure due to low demand from the real estate sector [10][11]. Operational Challenges - The company is under pressure from rising capital expenditure due to ongoing projects, including a 939 million yuan investment in a new caustic soda production line [4][5]. - Environmental regulations are tightening, increasing the company's operational risks related to safety and compliance [4][10]. Sales and Distribution - The company maintains a strong regional sales presence, with a significant portion of its products sold in the East China region, benefiting from lower transportation costs [13][14]. - The sales model combines direct sales and distribution, with a focus on maintaining strong relationships with key customers [17][18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Cautiously bearish [4] - Caustic soda: Neutral [4] Core Viewpoints - PVC market is weak with ample supply and sluggish demand, and the decline in social inventory has slowed down. The caustic soda market is also weak, with expected increased supply pressure and lack of positive drivers in the short term [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 4,844 yuan/ton (-52), the East China basis was -114 yuan/ton (+2), and the South China basis was -24 yuan/ton (+2) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton (-50), and the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton (-50) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price was 575 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2,880 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 130 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide method production gross profit was -494 yuan/ton (+18), the PVC ethylene method production gross profit was -640 yuan/ton (-80), and the PVC export profit was -11.4 US dollars/ton (+0.6) [1] - PVC inventory and operation: The in - factory inventory of PVC was 40.2 million tons (+0.5), the social inventory of PVC was 35.5 million tons (+0.0), the operation rate of the PVC calcium carbide method was 79.62% (-0.83%), the operation rate of the PVC ethylene method was 69.23% (+1.87%), and the overall operation rate of PVC was 76.74% (-0.09%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 64.8 million tons (+1.0) [1] Caustic Soda - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,274 yuan/ton (+2), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 164 yuan/ton (-2) [1] - Spot price: The quotation of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton (+0), and the quotation of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 1,300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong was 1,446 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 783.3 yuan/ton (+39.2), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 91.28 yuan/ton (-20.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) was 1,284.03 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - Caustic soda inventory and operation: The inventory of liquid caustic soda factories was 36.65 million tons (-3.88), the inventory of flake caustic soda factories was 2.85 million tons (+0.00), and the operation rate of caustic soda was 81.20% (+0.30%) [2] - Caustic soda downstream operation: The operation rate of alumina was 80.74% (-0.13%), the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China was 60.73% (-0.63%), and the operation rate of viscose staple fiber was 80.80% (+0.24%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The easing of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East and the weak macro - sentiment have dragged down the PVC price. The supply - demand situation has not improved significantly. The supply is abundant, the cost support is weak, the domestic demand is sluggish, and the export is increasing but has uncertainties [3] Caustic Soda - The operation rate of caustic soda has increased slightly, and the supply pressure is expected to intensify. The market transaction is weak, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong has declined, and the demand side is also weak. The factory inventory is still at a high level [3] Strategy - PVC: Cautiously bearish, pay attention to macro - export policies and the recovery of downstream demand [4] - Caustic Soda: Neutral, the price has limited downward space in the short term, and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali still has room to compress [4]

Group 1 - China State Construction won multiple major projects with a total amount of 21.53 billion yuan, accounting for 1.0% of the audited revenue for 2024 [1] - Zhongtai Chemical's subsidiary has fully launched a methanol upgrading demonstration project, which will further reduce production costs [1] - Wide Special Materials expects a net profit increase of approximately 367.51% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by improved demand and internal optimization [1][2] Group 2 - Longdi Group plans to exercise its preferential subscription rights to participate in the convertible bond issuance of its associate company, Yongqi Electronics, with an investment of no more than 89.249 million yuan [3] - Dayou Energy's subsidiary Mengjin Coal Mine has resumed production after a 38-day suspension due to an accident, with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tons [5] - Shanying International plans to repurchase shares worth between 500 million and 1 billion yuan, with a maximum repurchase price of 2.50 yuan per share [7] Group 3 - Huatai Securities has been approved to issue up to 10 billion yuan in technology innovation bonds to support investment in the technology innovation sector [9] - Weixin Kang's cooperative product, an injectable multivitamin, has passed the consistency evaluation, enhancing its market potential [10] - Jinpu Titanium's controlling shareholder will have 35 million shares auctioned, accounting for 3.55% of the company's total share capital [11] Group 4 - China Pharmaceutical plans to waive its preferential purchase rights for a 24% stake in Chongqing Medical Health Industry Co., with a base transfer price of 2.206 billion yuan [12] - Beijia Clean plans to reduce its shareholding by 1.99% due to funding needs [13] - Anpelon has obtained a design patent for a brake sensor, enhancing its technological capabilities [14] Group 5 - Zhongyue Holdings' subsidiary has received approval for a clinical trial application for a new drug, indicating progress in its pharmaceutical development [14] - Lijun Group's YJH-012 injection has been approved for clinical trials, showcasing its potential in treating gout [16] - Yageer has sold financial assets totaling 4.176 billion yuan, representing 10.13% of its audited net assets for 2024 [15] Group 6 - Tailing Micro expects a net profit increase of approximately 267% year-on-year for the first half of 2025, driven by customer demand and product sales [19] - Baotai plans to invest 287 million yuan to acquire a 51% stake in Shaanxi Wanhao Titanium Technology Co., enhancing its production capabilities [21] - Laime Pharmaceutical has received a drug registration certificate for azithromycin granules, expanding its product portfolio [23] Group 7 - KQ Bio has received approval for a new veterinary vaccine, marking a significant advancement in its product offerings [25] - Robotech signed a contract worth approximately 17.1 million euros, representing over 12.82% of its audited revenue for 2024 [26] - Alloy Investment is planning a control change, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [27] Group 8 - Huabang Health's subsidiary has received approval for two dermatological drugs, indicating growth in its pharmaceutical pipeline [28] - Lingxiao Pump Industry plans to invest 60 million yuan in wealth management products, optimizing its financial strategy [29] - Jinzhong Technology has won projects totaling 113 million yuan, accounting for 6.39% of its expected revenue for 2024 [31] Group 9 - Yifan Pharmaceutical's subsidiary has received approval for a clinical trial of a growth hormone injection, indicating progress in its research and development [32] - Guiguan Electric plans to invest 395 million yuan in a photovoltaic project, reflecting its commitment to renewable energy [33] - Rili Technology intends to repurchase shares worth between 10 million and 20 million yuan, supporting its stock performance [34] Group 10 - Xingye Securities' chairman has resigned, leading to a change in leadership [35] - Jinko Solar has achieved third-party certification for its high-efficiency solar cells, setting a new industry record [37] - Changan Automobile's controlling shareholder has changed its name, reflecting a rebranding effort [38]

氯碱日报 | 2025-06-24 山东现货继续走低，烧碱基差收敛 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4896元/吨（-7）；华东基差-116元/吨（-3）;华南基差-26元/吨（-3）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（-10）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格575元/吨（+0）；电石价格2880元/吨（+0）；电石利润130元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-494元/吨（+18）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-640元/吨（-80）；PVC出口利润-12.0美元/吨（-2.5）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存40.2万吨（+0.5）；PVC社会库存35.5万吨（+0.0）；PVC电石法开工率79.62%（-0.83%）； PVC乙烯法开工率69.23%（+1.87%）；PVC开工率76.74%（-0.09%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量64.8万吨（+1.0）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2272元/吨（+16）；山东32%液碱基差166元/吨（-110）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（-30）；山东50 ...

聚酯产业链日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 张晓珍 Z0003135 | 下游聚酯产品价格及现金流 | 上游价格 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 张跌 | 单位 | 品种 | 6月20日 | 6月23日 | 6月23日 | 胀跌 | 单位 | 张跌幅 | 旅跌幅 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | -7.2% | 77.01 | -5.53 | POY150/48价格 | 60 | 布伦特原油(8月) | 71.48 | 7225 | 7165 | 0.8% | 美元/桶 | -7.2% | 50 | WTI原油(8月) | 68.51 | 73.84 | -5.33 | FDY150/96价格 | 7515 | 0.7% | 7465 | | | 40 | CFR日本石脑油 | 646 | -4 | -0.6% | D ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic economic data in May still showed resilience, and the Fed continued to pause rate cuts in its June meeting. Attention should be paid to the situation in the Middle East and changes in US tariff policies. In the supply - demand aspect, the quantity of low - concentration caustic soda delivered to major downstream industries in Shandong Province is expected to remain high this week, with non - aluminum downstream industries and traders resistant to high prices. There are both newly - added maintenance enterprises and downstream enterprises in the province, which is expected to have limited impact on the market. After the new alumina production capacity is put into operation, the demand has increased. The market has an expectation of continued price cuts, but the expectation is not too bad. Overall, the supply - demand situation in the liquid caustic soda market has changed little, lacking new support, and the caustic soda 2509 contract may continue to operate at a low level. The upper reference pressure level is 2,500 yuan/ton, and the lower support level is 2,200 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **Spot Market**: The price of Shandong liquid caustic soda has declined, and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong has converged. The prices of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda, 50% ion - membrane caustic soda, 98% flake caustic soda, liquid chlorine, and alumina in Shandong have all decreased to varying degrees, with the price of liquid chlorine dropping by 98%. The prices of raw salt and viscose staple fiber remained unchanged [9][12][18]. - **Futures Market**: The report presents the price trends of caustic soda futures contracts compared with those of soda ash, alumina, PVC, and the change in caustic soda warehouse receipt quantity [15]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **Supply Side**: In the week from June 13 - 19, 2025, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 81.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3%. Some enterprises in Central China, North China, and Northeast China temporarily reduced production or were under maintenance, while those in the Northwest and East China increased their loads after equipment maintenance. It is estimated that the capacity utilization rate in North China will slightly increase to about 81.8% this week, with a weekly output of about 798,600 tons [20]. - **Downstream (Alumina)**: The supply of alumina has decreased. An alumina enterprise in the southern region reduced its production capacity due to ore issues, slightly intensifying the tight supply situation in the south. As of June 19, the built - in production capacity of Chinese alumina was 112.4 million tons, the operating production capacity was 87.55 million tons, and the operating rate was 77.89% [26]. - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 366,500 wet tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.57% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.63%. The storage capacity ratio of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises in the country was 22.52%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.76%. The storage capacity ratios in the Northwest, Central China, Northeast, and Southwest increased month - on - month, while those in North China, East China, and South China decreased [31]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: As of June 20, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong first decreased and then increased, with an average weekly price of 1 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month. The PVC capacity utilization rate in China was 78.62%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.63%. It is expected to further decline to 77.02% this week. The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 501 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 18.27% [35][36].