Group 1 - The mayor of Guangzhou, Sun Zhiyang, visited Guangdong Tobacco Industrial Co., Ltd. and Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group to understand their production operations and digital transformation efforts [1][2] - Sun expressed gratitude for Guangdong Tobacco's support of Guangzhou's economic and social development and encouraged the company to integrate into national strategies such as the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the cultivation of an international consumption center [1] - The city will enhance strategic cooperation with central enterprises in Guangzhou to achieve mutual empowerment and win-win development [1][2] Group 2 - At Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group, Sun emphasized the importance of aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" and leveraging comparative advantages to build core competitiveness [2] - The company is encouraged to focus on cost reduction, market expansion, and resource optimization to address external uncertainties [2] - There is a call for increased emphasis on independent research and development in the biopharmaceutical sector, utilizing various resources to promote technological innovation and create new growth points [2]

Group 1 - The tourism market is releasing significant consumption potential due to the deep integration of cultural and tourism industries and the upgrading of consumer demand [1] - The tobacco industry is actively exploring innovative marketing services in the tourism market by optimizing terminal ecosystems, upgrading consumer experiences, and enhancing operational capabilities [1][3] - The industry focuses on scenario-based upgrades in retail terminal construction, integrating local cultural characteristics with terminal images to create distinctive retail environments [1] Group 2 - Digitalization is a key breakthrough in consumer experience innovation, with the industry leveraging big data and smart terminals to build an integrated online and offline service system [2] - Offline promotion of smart guide devices allows tourists to quickly access product information and consumption guides, while online platforms support product queries and orders, creating a seamless shopping experience [2] - Professional service teams are established to provide comprehensive guidance to retail operators in tourist areas, enhancing their operational capabilities and driving performance growth [2] Group 3 - The tobacco industry's innovative practices in tourism marketing not only enhance the shopping experience for consumers but also expand the operational space for retailers [3] - As the cultural tourism market continues to prosper, the tobacco industry will deepen its innovative exploration to create value while meeting tourism consumption demands [3]

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 23,793, down 0.48% for the day but up 18.61% year-to-date[3] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 0.63% to 8,630, with a year-to-date increase of 18.38%[3] - The Hang Seng Tech Index also decreased by 0.63% to 5,287, maintaining an 18.32% rise for the year[3] US Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05% to 42,763, with a year-to-date gain of 0.51%[3] - The S&P 500 increased by 1.03% to 6,000, reflecting a 2.02% rise year-to-date[3] - The Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.20% to 19,530, with a year-to-date increase of 1.13%[3] Sector Performance - Major tech stocks in Hong Kong saw declines, with Xiaomi dropping over 2% and Alibaba down more than 1%[8] - Gold stocks surged, with China Silver Group rising over 26% and Tongguan Gold increasing by more than 5%[8] - The semiconductor sector faced significant losses, with SMIC and BeiKe both falling over 4%[8] Capital Flows - Southbound capital recorded a net inflow of HKD 6.766 billion on June 6[8] - Meituan was the top net bought stock with HKD 8.613 billion, while Tencent saw a net outflow of HKD 5.884 billion[23] Economic Indicators - The US non-farm payrolls data for May showed an increase of 139,000 jobs, exceeding market expectations[11] - The unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2%, indicating a resilient labor market despite economic slowdown concerns[11] Investment Insights - Circle, dubbed the "first stablecoin stock," saw a significant rise of over 29% on its second day of trading, accumulating a total increase of over 247% in two days[8] - Morgan Stanley revised its year-end target for the S&P 500 from 5,200 to 6,000, reflecting a bullish outlook[11]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform" [6] Core Insights - British American Tobacco focuses on expanding the Glo product line in the second half of the year, with expectations for revenue growth driven by innovative products [1] - For the fiscal year 2025, British American Tobacco anticipates revenue growth of 1-2% and adjusted operating profit growth of 1.5%-2.5%, indicating strong resilience [1] - The U.S. market is expected to recover revenue and profit growth due to enhanced delivery capabilities of combustible tobacco products and the Velo Plus brand [1] - Despite a 9% year-on-year decline in industry sales, British American Tobacco has solidified its market share in the U.S. [1] - The electronic cigarette export value from China remained stable in April 2025, with a total export value of $8.77 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.84% [4] Summary by Sections Emerging Tobacco Products - Velo is the fastest-growing product in the oral tobacco category, with a market share increase of 270 basis points to 14.3% and a modern oral tobacco share increase of 350 basis points to 29.7% [2] - The U.S. market saw a total volume share increase of 550 basis points to 11.9%, driven by high trial and retention rates [2] - Glo's market share decreased by 90 basis points due to intense competition in Japan, but the launch of Glo Hilo in Serbia showed promising results [2] E-Cigarettes - Vuse maintains its global value share leadership, but the U.S. and Canadian markets are affected by illegal products [3] - The company expects a double-digit revenue decline in the first half of the year, with improvements anticipated in the second half due to the phased launch of the Vuse Ultra product [3] - Long-term goals include revenue growth of 3-5% and adjusted operating profit growth of 4-6% by 2026 [3] Market Performance - The top five export destinations for Chinese e-cigarettes accounted for 65.96% of total exports, with the U.S. being the largest market at $3.34 billion [4] - The UAE market has shown significant growth, surpassing Malaysia to become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese e-cigarette exports [4] Investment Opportunities - Suggested companies to focus on include Smoore International, Yinghe Technology, and others in the vaping supply chain [5]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Hold" [1] Core Insights - British American Tobacco (BAT) forecasts a revenue growth of 1-2% for H1 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to increase by 1.5%-2.5% [3][18] - The Glo Hilo product has shown positive market response, with a significant increase in conversion rates in Serbia and expected revenue acceleration in the second half of the year [3][19] - The heated tobacco market is projected to reach approximately $34.463 billion in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 12.22% [3][23] Summary by Sections Weekly Topic - BAT's H1 2025 performance forecast indicates a slight decline in market share in key markets, but a recovery in the US market with a 10 basis point increase in sales volume and revenue share [3][18] - The Velo product line has seen a market share increase to 29.7%, with double-digit revenue growth, while the Glo Hilo's innovative launch is expected to boost performance in the latter half of the year [3][18] Weekly Market Review - From June 2 to June 6, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.13%, with the light industry manufacturing sector increasing by 2.18%, ranking 8th among 31 sectors [4][28] - The textile and apparel sector saw a 1.89% increase, ranking 11th among the same sectors [4][28] Key Data Tracking Home Furnishing - In the week of May 25 to June 1, 2025, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities was 2.1262 million square meters, a 3.25% increase month-on-month [7][36] - The sales area of commercial housing for the first four months of 2025 was 28.3 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [7][36] Packaging and Paper - As of June 6, 2025, the prices for various paper products showed slight fluctuations, with needle pulp priced at 5977.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% [8][48] - The price of waste paper products remained stable, with waste yellow board paper priced at 1478 yuan/ton [8][48] Textile and Apparel - As of June 6, 2025, the cotton price index in China was 14561 yuan/ton, showing a slight decrease of 0.12% [10][10] - In April 2025, the retail sales of clothing and textiles reached 108.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2% [10][10]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Insights - British American Tobacco focuses on expanding the Glo product line in the second half of the year, with expectations for revenue growth driven by innovative products [1] - The company anticipates a revenue increase of 1-2% for the fiscal year 2025, with adjusted operating profit expected to rise by 1.5%-2.5% [1] - Despite a 9% year-on-year decline in industry sales, British American Tobacco has solidified its market share in the U.S. [1] - The electronic cigarette export value from China remained stable in April 2025, with a total export amount of $8.77 billion, showing a year-on-year decline of 1.84% [4] Summary by Sections Emerging Industry - British American Tobacco's revenue for the first half of 2025 is better than expected, with strong performance in the Americas, Middle East, and Europe regions [1] - The modern oral tobacco product Velo is experiencing rapid growth, increasing its market share by 270 basis points to 14.3% [2] - Glo's market share has decreased by 90 basis points, primarily due to competition in Japan, but Glo Hilo's launch in Serbia shows promising results [2] Electronic Cigarettes - Vuse maintains its global value share leadership, but faces challenges from illegal products in the U.S. and Canada [3] - The company expects a double-digit revenue decline in the first half of the year, with improvements anticipated in the second half due to the launch of Vuse Ultra [3] - Long-term goals include a revenue growth target of 3-5% and adjusted operating profit growth of 4-6% by 2026 [3] Export Data - In the first four months of 2025, China's electronic cigarette exports totaled $3.242 billion, with the U.S. being the largest market, accounting for $334 million [4] - The UAE market has shown significant growth, surpassing Malaysia to become the fifth-largest destination for Chinese electronic cigarette exports [4] Investment Opportunities - Suggested companies to focus on include Smoore International, Yinghe Technology, and others in the vaping supply chain [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article explores the concept of contrarian investing, emphasizing its complexity beyond the simplistic notion of "buy low, sell high." It introduces a quantitative approach to measure contrarian investment capabilities through the concept of emotional beta, demonstrating that fund managers who achieve excess returns when investor opinions converge tend to perform better in the future [1][5][12]. Emotional Beta and Asset Returns - Contrarian investing is defined as taking positions contrary to the majority of investors. Turnover rate is used to represent the degree of investor disagreement, with lower turnover indicating greater consensus. Empirical results show that assets with low emotional beta often exhibit better future performance across various asset classes [2][6]. Quantitative Expression of Contrarian Investment Capability - The article constructs a contrarian investment capability factor based on fund holdings and fund returns. The average RankIC for the fund holding-based factor is -7.30%, with an annualized RankICIR of -0.92 and a win rate of 67.21%. The fund return-based factor shows an average RankIC of -8.92%, an annualized RankICIR of -1.04, and a win rate of 75.41%. The combined contrarian investment capability factor has an average RankIC of -10.85%, an annualized RankICIR of -1.39, and a win rate of 78.69% [3][66]. Characteristics of the Contrarian Investment Capability Factor - The contrarian investment capability factor exhibits low correlation with nine previously constructed selection factors, with absolute correlation values below 0.1. The introduction of this factor enhances the predictive power of a composite selection factor, increasing its average RankIC from 11.51% to 13.57% [4][73]. Market Adaptability and Predictive Power - Since 2015, the contrarian investment capability factor has shown high predictive power, with an average RankIC of -10.85% and an annualized RankICIR of -1.39. It has maintained strong performance even as other previously successful factors have experienced significant volatility [6][73]. Historical Examples of Contrarian Investors - Notable investors like Warren Buffett and John Templeton exemplify successful contrarian investing. Buffett's strategy involves buying undervalued stocks during market downturns, while Templeton capitalized on extreme pessimism during the Great Depression by investing in undervalued stocks [8][9][12].

Group 1: Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.11% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1,117.4 billion yuan, an increase of 13.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day, with over 3,900 stocks rising [1] Group 2: Beer Sector Performance - The beer sector saw significant gains, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit [3] - The rise in the beer sector is attributed to the ongoing popularity of "new consumption" trends and the "micro-drunk economy," where younger consumers prefer low-alcohol beverages for relaxed social experiences [3] - Qingdao Beer has been recommended by 15 brokerage firms in the last three months, indicating strong investment value, with reasons including resource optimization and market expansion [3] Group 3: Tobacco Sector Activity - The tobacco sector showed active performance, with companies like Jinjia Co. and Huabao Co. hitting the daily limit [4] - Recent regulatory updates from the National Tobacco Monopoly Administration aim to enhance the electronic cigarette regulatory framework, impacting production and market standards [4] - The stock of Hong Kong Tobacco surged over 7%, reaching a historical high, further fueling market enthusiasm for tobacco-related concepts [5] Group 4: Market Outlook - Positive factors for the market include favorable views from foreign investment banks and potential tariff benefits, which may boost market sentiment [5] - Analysts suggest that the market adjustment space is limited due to supportive policies, with a focus on structural opportunities [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are expected to remain key investment themes, with high-growth industries such as AI infrastructure and robotics being highlighted [6]

Core Viewpoint - The consumer sector experienced a significant surge, with major A-share indices closing higher and over 3,900 stocks in the market showing gains [1][10]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.42%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.11% [1]. - The total market turnover reached approximately 1.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 136 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1]. Group 2: Sector Highlights - Key sectors that saw notable gains included beauty care, beer, copper cable high-speed connections, and clothing and home textiles [3][10]. - Specific stocks such as Wanbangde in the innovative drug concept and Huabao Co. showed strong performance, with Huabao Co. hitting a new high since October 9, 2024 [5][10]. Group 3: Company Insights - Huabao Co. focuses on the flavor and ingredient industry, providing solutions centered on natural technology, with main products including tobacco and food flavors [7]. - The company is set to participate as a cornerstone investor in the IPO of "Hushang Auntie" in 2025, showcasing a model of "capital empowerment + industrial synergy" [8]. - Huabao Co. has established stable partnerships across various sectors, including food, beverages, catering, and dairy [8]. Group 4: Consumer Trends - New consumption concept stocks in Hong Kong, such as Mao Ge Ping and Zhongyan Hong Kong, reached historical highs, indicating a robust market sentiment [14]. - Analysts are optimistic about the long-term opportunities in the consumer sector, particularly in areas like trendy toys, gold jewelry, and new tea beverages [14]. - The beer sector is entering a peak consumption season, with expectations for revenue growth and improved profitability due to product upgrades and cost advantages [14].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a strong rally on the 4th, with the ChiNext Index rising over 1% and the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.6% [1] - The three major indices showed fluctuations during the day, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.42% to 3376.2 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.87% to 10144.58 points, and the ChiNext Index up 1.11% to 2024.93 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 11,776 billion [1] Consumer Sector Performance - The consumer sector saw a collective surge, particularly in tourism and food and beverage stocks, with several stocks hitting the daily limit [1][3] - Notable performers included Youyou Foods, which hit the daily limit for two consecutive days, and other companies like Xiangpiaopiao and Ximai Foods also reached their daily limit [1][3] - The food and beverage sector showed strong performance, with Pinwa Foods rising nearly 13% and Yanjinpuzi approaching a historical high of 100 yuan [3] Tobacco Sector Activity - The tobacco sector experienced significant gains, with stocks like Huabao International and Simoer International rising approximately 13% [6][10] - The recent regulatory changes regarding e-cigarettes are expected to benefit compliant companies, enhancing their market share and profitability [6] Solid-State Battery Sector Growth - The solid-state battery concept saw a strong rise, with Kexin Co. hitting the daily limit with a 20% increase [8] - The demand for solid-state batteries is expected to grow due to applications in electric vehicles, low-altitude economy, and robotics [11] - The market for solid-state batteries is projected to exceed 250 billion yuan by 2030, with significant penetration in the overall lithium battery market [11] Investment Trends - Analysts suggest a shift in investment logic towards consumer sectors, emphasizing rational consumption, quality upgrades, and new consumption opportunities driven by technological advancements [5] - The traditional consumer sectors are showing signs of recovery, with many sub-industries expected to see a bottoming out in the second quarter [5]