Group 1 - The Japanese sovereign debt market is signaling caution to the central bank regarding the reduction of bond purchases, with investors avoiding government bond auctions and yields surging [1][2] - The 20-year Japanese government bond auction recorded the weakest demand in over a decade, highlighting the market's concerns about political instability and increasing fiscal pressures [1][2] - The Bank of Japan's aggressive bond-buying program has led to the central bank holding over half of Japan's outstanding government bonds, raising concerns about the sustainability of this approach [4] Group 2 - The upcoming policy decision by the Bank of Japan on June 17 may test the current stance on bond purchases, as the Ministry of Finance plans to issue 40-year bonds [2] - The net supply of bonds has reached its highest level since 2010, driven by bond redemptions and central bank purchases, which could lead to price declines if the Bank of Japan reduces its buying [2] - Rising yields are adding new concerns for Japanese equity investors, as the stock market has already shown signs of pressure due to the increasing bond yields [2][3] Group 3 - Prime Minister Kishida has expressed reluctance to issue more bonds for budget financing, indicating uncertainty in economic measures despite the rising yields [3] - Some analysts view the recent rise in long-term yields as a potential reflection of economic normalization, which could support corporate earnings, although the overall economic fundamentals remain weak [3] - The Bank of Japan plans to reduce its bond purchase scale by 400 billion yen (approximately 2.8 billion USD) each quarter, which could lower the monthly purchase volume to about 2.9 trillion yen by the first quarter of next year [3]

刚刚步入二季度，美国所谓"对等关税"便对全球经济环境和金融市场稳定带来挑战。在此背景下，国内 宏观政策加强超常规逆周期调节，打出一系列政策"组合拳"，叠加一季度经济数据向好，4月份，我国 金融市场在波动中展现较强韧性。 从银行间本币市场运行情况来看，中国外汇交易中心（以下简称"交易中心"）最新发布的数据显示， 2025年4月，央行月内净投放，货币市场资金面保持均衡偏松，日均成交及余额回升，回购利率下行； 债券发行总量增多，特别国债发行启动，地方债发行缩量，债券交易环比减少，收益率下行后横盘震 荡，曲线走平；利率互换曲线整体下移，成交环比减少。从成交量看，4月份，银行间市场成交183.6万 亿元，环比增长4.7%，同比减少2.6%。 4月25日召开的中共中央政治局会议强调，要加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，用好用足更加积极的 财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。适时降准降息，保持流动性充裕，加力支持实体经济。随后，在5月7 日举行的国新办新闻发布会上，中国人民银行行长潘功胜表示，进一步实施好适度宽松的货币政策，将 加大宏观调控强度，宣布推出三大类共10项货币政策措施。 资金利率中枢下行 4月份以来，在央行加力呵护之下 ...

交易量小，说明市场多空分歧大，互相不让价；而交易量大，说明多空双方在某一个阶段，对价格都非 常认可，多空能量也将集中释放。此后，必然要做休整，重新聚集能量。行情轮回一般可归纳为： 能量聚集 - 能量释放 - 中场休息 - 能量再聚集 - 再释放 - 再休息。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250520— "内卷"式的交易盘 PK"躺平"式的配置盘（-存款利率与LPR降息落地-股市小幅上涨 +资金面均衡偏松=小上)】 资金面均衡偏松，长债收益率小幅上行。 央行公开市场开展3570亿元7天期逆回购操作，今日有1800亿元逆回购到期，净投放1770亿元。 资金面均衡偏松，资金价格延续回落，DR001在1.52%附近，DR007在1.59%附近。 今日存款利率与LPR如期下调，股市上涨，债市出现止盈需求，利率小幅上行。 | | | | 银行间资金 | (2025. 05. 20) | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 回购代码 | 加权利率 | 变化 | 利率走势 | 最高利率 | 变化 | 成交量 | 变化量 | 成义 ...

5月20日，宜宾纸业上涨10.00%登上龙虎榜，连续三个交易日内,涨幅偏离值累计达20%，知名游资卖 出。 龙虎榜显示，买入前五合计买入1.54亿元，卖出前五合计卖出9170.91万元，净额6232.41万元。 其 中，中国银河证券股份有限公司沈阳大北关街证券营业部、开源证券股份有限公司西安太华路证券营业 部、国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部分别买入7086.80万元、2385.16万元、2379.30万元。 中国银河证券 股份有限公司沈阳大北关街证券营业部、华泰证券股份有限公司总部、国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部 分别卖出2949.01万元、2047.93万元、1640.22万元。 买入金额最大的前5名营业部 买入额/万 卖出额/万 净额/万 中国银河证券股份有限公司沈阳大北关街证券营业部 7086.80 0.00 7086.8 开源证券股份有限公 司西安太华路证券营业部 2385.16 0.00 2385.16 国泰海通证券股份有限公司总部 2379.30 0.00 2379.3 华泰 证券股份有限公司总部 2132.17 0.00 2132.17 瑞银证券有限责任公司上海浦东新区花园石桥路第二证券 营业部 1 ...

2025 年 5 月 20 日，中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布最新贷款市场报价利率（LPR）， 1 年期 LPR、5 年期以上 LPR 均下调 10 个基点，分别由 3.10%、3.60% 调整为 3.00%、3.50%。这是继 5 月 7 日央行宣布降准 0.5 个百分点、下调政策利率 0.1 个百分点，以及 5 月 8 日降低个人住房公积金 贷款利率 0.25 个百分点后的又一重磅举措，标志着年内货币政策宽松周期全面开启。 政策组合拳：降息降准的多维逻辑 此次降息并非孤立事件，而是一揽子政策的延续。5 月 7 日央行行长潘功胜宣布的 "降准 + 降息 + 调降 公积金利率" 组合拳，旨在通过释放长期流动性、降低融资成本、刺激住房消费三重路径稳定经济。从 背景看，尽管中美 "对等关税" 阶段性缓和，但外部不稳定因素依然较多，4 月制造业 PMI 重回收缩区 间至 49%，居民贷款减少 5216 亿元，显示内需不足压力仍存。在此背景下，央行通过政策利率引导 LPR 下行，直接降低企业和居民的实际融资成本，成为扩投资、促消费的关键发力点。 叠加 5 月 8 日公积金贷款利率下调 0.25 个百分点（ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The attitude towards the bond market remains relatively positive. It is recommended to maintain a medium - to - high duration in the portfolio, appropriately increase leverage to boost short - bond holdings, and seize buying opportunities for long - end bonds during adjustments [3][49]. - Although short - term interest rates are currently weak, as technical factors wane and with the potential for deposit rate cuts and a stable monetary policy, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [2][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Constraints on Short - Term Interest Rates from Some Technical Factors May Weaken in the Future - The weak performance of the 2 - year Treasury bond futures (TS) has restricted short - term interest rates. After the basis repair, the IRR of the CTD bond of the TS2506 contract has dropped, reducing the suppression on futures prices and potentially boosting confidence in short - term bonds [7][12]. - The decline in the central bank's claims on the government in the balance sheet may be due to the maturity of short - term bonds previously purchased or the closing of the previous short - selling long - buying operation. Currently, the impact of this factor is gradually weakening, and large banks have resumed net buying of 1 - 3 - year Treasury bonds [12][15][16]. 3.2 In the Short Term, the Probability of the Funding Rate Remaining Loose but Lower than the Policy Rate is Low, but the Decline in Deposit Rates is Still Expected to Benefit the Short - End - After the RRR cut, the tightening of the funding market was a temporary shock. The average - method assessment of the RRR and the large - scale net payment of government bonds and net withdrawal of reverse repurchase and MLF were the main reasons [17][18][19]. - Although the excess reserve ratio in April was at a low level, the central bank may tolerate a decline in banks' net lending, indicating that it hopes to maintain a loose environment but may not want the funding rate to fall significantly below the policy rate. The decline in deposit rates is conducive to compressing short - and medium - term spreads [25][30]. 3.3 The Weakening of Economic Data in April Indicates Insufficient Demand, and the Fundamental Environment is Still Favorable for the Bond Market - In April, new credit and social financing were both lower than expected. New credit mainly came from government bond issuance, and the decline in new credit may be due to the lack of bank reserve projects after the early - year impulse [34][35][39]. - Despite the slowdown in credit growth, the M2 growth rate increased due to the rise in banks' net lending and bond investment. However, the M1 growth rate declined, indicating limited currency activation [39][42]. - In April, domestic demand declined. Retail sales, investment, and production all showed signs of weakness, indicating that the fundamental environment is favorable for the bond market [44][45][47]. 3.4 The Bond Market is Expected to Continue a Relatively Strong and Volatile Trend - Although the recent Sino - US negotiation has made progress, the impact of short - term export rush is short - term. External demand still faces uncertainties, and domestic demand is insufficient. - The monetary policy is expected to remain in a loose range. If the funding expectation stabilizes, short - and medium - term interest rates are expected to decline, which will support long - term bonds [49].

作者：招商银行研究院 零售客群部 私人银行部 | | 本期要点摘要 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回顾 | 近1月 | 2025 年以来 | | 固收产品 | 含权债基>短债基金>高等级同业存单指基金 | 含权债基 > 高等级同业存单指基 > 短债基金 | | 收益回顾 | >中长期债基> 现金管理 | >现金管理>中长期债基 | | | 近一个月资金面进一步转松,中美关税大幅 | 1月偏强震荡，2月-3月中旬债市大幅回 | | 债市回顾 | 缓和、提升市场风险偏好,长债利率有所回 | 调，4月初债市快速走强后转为偏强震荡，5 | | | 升,短端利率相对稳定。 | 月中旬以来转为偏弱震荡。 | | 行业事件 | 1、中国证监会近日公开印发《推动公募基金高质量发展行动方案》。 | | | 跟踪 | | | | 展空 | 短期(1个月维度) | 中期(3-6个月维度) | | | -同业存单:预计利率偏强震荡。 | | | | 明显,私人部门融资需求偏弱;宏观政策兼 | 近期经济金融数据显示国内低通胀特征依然 | | | 顾积极有为和定力,"超预期"政策出台必 | | | 债市展望 | - ...

Core Insights - The Chinese economy is showing resilience, attracting long-term capital into the A-share market, with net purchases exceeding 200 billion yuan this year [2][3] - There is a growing global consensus on the upward revaluation of Chinese assets, driven by strong GDP growth [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasizes the need to maintain stable growth in the manufacturing sector and expand employment capacity [4] Group 1: Market Trends - As of May 19, 2023, long-term funds such as social security and insurance have net bought over 200 billion yuan in A-shares, indicating a positive cycle of capital inflow and market stability [2] - In April, foreign investment in domestic stocks turned into net purchases, reflecting a favorable sentiment towards Chinese assets [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth in the first quarter outpaced that of other major economies, reinforcing the narrative of a stable and robust Chinese economy [3] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is implementing policies to support key industries and enhance employment through technological upgrades and new industry cultivation [4] Group 3: Foreign Investment - In April, non-bank sectors saw a net inflow of 17.3 billion USD, with significant contributions from resilient foreign trade and increased foreign investment in domestic bonds [5][8] - As of the end of April, foreign institutions held 4.44 trillion yuan in the interbank bond market, accounting for 2.7% of the total [8] Group 4: Corporate Developments - Huawei launched the world's first Harmony OS laptop, priced from 7,999 yuan, indicating a push into innovative technology products [9] - Several companies are undergoing significant changes, including acquisitions and stock repurchases, reflecting active corporate strategies in the current market environment [11]

在"人工智能时代下的数字金融"平行论坛上，中国证券监督管理委员会原主席肖钢发表主旨演讲，系统 分析了我国一季度数字经济和数字金融发展状况，并针对当前挑战提出破解路径，强调了人工智能技术 对金融生态的重塑作用。肖钢指出，下一步，应当坚持问题导向、系统谋划，从完善数字经济产业生 态、加快构建生成式AI金融应用的治理闭环、建设高质量金融数据市场三个方面入手，破解数字经济 发展存在的堵点。 5月17日至18日，2025清华五道口全球金融论坛在深圳举行。 一季度数字经济核心产业增速10%以上 肖钢表示，今年一季度，我国数字经济持续保持良好发展态势。数字经济核心产业增势良好，增长速度 保持在10%以上，显著高于同期GDP增长水平。数字制造业增加值同比增长11.5%，高于同期工业和高 技术制造业增速；数字服务业增加值增速连续多个季度保持两位数增长，比一季度整体服务业增加值增 速高出5个百分点。 肖钢表示，发展数字经济最终是为了提高实体经济效率，应进一步推动数字经济和实体经济的深度融 合，深化落实"人工智能+"战略。 同时，他认为，下一步，应当坚持问题导向、系统谋划，从三个方面入手，破解数字经济发展存在的堵 点： 一是要进一 ...

Core Viewpoint - Financial institutions are adjusting the performance benchmarks of wealth management products in response to the recent interest rate cuts by the People's Bank of China, although the adjustments do not fully reflect the actual decline in underlying asset yields [1][2][3]. Group 1: Adjustments in Performance Benchmarks - Institutions such as Xingyin Wealth Management and Minsheng Wealth Management have lowered the performance benchmarks of several wealth management products, with some upper limits reduced by up to 155 basis points and lower limits by up to 60 basis points [2]. - For instance, Xingyin Wealth Management's product benchmark was adjusted from 2.05%-2.75% to 2.00%-2.70%, effective from May 14 [2]. - Minsheng Wealth Management also reduced its product benchmark from 3.1%-4.0% to 2.6%-3.1%, effective from May 13 [2]. Group 2: Market Response and Asset Allocation - The decline in performance benchmarks is seen as a normal adjustment to align with the downward trend in market interest rates [2][3]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to optimize their asset allocation structures to cope with performance pressures resulting from the declining yields of underlying assets [3][4]. - The supply-demand gap for low-risk, high-yield quality assets may further widen, as banks control deposit rates and guide costs downwards [4]. Group 3: Market Trends and Predictions - The recent interest rate cuts are expected to lead to a new wave of collective rate reductions by banks, potentially increasing the scale of wealth management products to historical highs, possibly exceeding 33 trillion yuan [6]. - In April, the scale of wealth management products increased by 2.1 trillion yuan, reaching 31.3 trillion yuan, surpassing previous levels [6]. - There is a growing preference for "fixed income plus" wealth management products, which are expected to continue expanding in market share due to their risk diversification capabilities [7].