1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The correlation between the fundamental and capital aspects and long - term bonds has weakened this year. The correlation between commercial bonds, exchange - rate bonds has weakened, while the correlation between stocks and bonds has significantly increased. This is due to the decline in the risk - return ratio of bonds, leading institutions to rebalance their stock - bond portfolios. The behavior of institutions has an increasingly large impact on the bond market. Next year, banks still face significant pressure to realize floating profits, and insurance companies will continue to rebalance their stock - bond portfolios supported by premium growth [1][9]. - The bond market is expected to remain volatile. It is recommended to adopt a barbell strategy, appropriately control the duration level in trading, seize trading opportunities from oversold rebounds, and pay attention to reverse operations [2][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the equity market showed resilience, and news of the fund fee - rate new regulations disturbed the bond market, causing it to fluctuate weakly. The yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds both increased by 2bp. The market situation varied from day to day, with factors such as the restart of treasury bond trading, Sino - US meetings, equity market performance, and fund fee - rate news affecting the bond market [8]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Capital Situation - The central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds, and the capital situation was generally balanced. From November 3rd to November 7th, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 157.22 billion yuan. R007 and DR007 decreased by 2bp and 4bp respectively compared to October 31st. The 3M certificate of deposit (CD) issuance rate first decreased, then increased, and finally decreased again. The FR007 - 1Y swap rate fluctuated upwards [17][18]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields fluctuated upwards this week. The yields of key - term treasury bonds all increased, and most of the key - term treasury bond spreads narrowed. As of November 7th, the yields of 10Y and 30Y treasury bonds increased by 2bp compared to October 31st, reaching 1.81% and 2.16% respectively, and their spread narrowed by 0.4bp to 34bp [27]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - The 30Y treasury bond weekly turnover rate slightly decreased, the 30Y - 10Y treasury bond spread narrowed, the inter - bank leverage ratio slightly increased to 107.2%, the exchange leverage ratio increased to 122.8%, the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds slightly decreased, and the implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds first narrowed and then widened [35]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - The net financing of interest - rate bonds slightly decreased this week. From November 3rd to November 7th, the net financing of interest - rate bonds was 318.8 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 5.4 billion yuan compared to last week. The net financing of treasury bonds increased, while that of local government bonds and policy - based financial bonds decreased. Next week, the issuance scale of local government bonds will increase, and new 10Y treasury bonds will be issued, and 30Y treasury bonds will be re - issued. The net financing of inter - bank certificates of deposit slightly decreased, and the average issuance rate decreased to 1.63% [50][55][56]. 3.3 Economic Data - In October, the year - on - year export turned negative. Since November, automobile consumption and port throughput have strengthened, while real - estate transactions remain weak. In terms of high - frequency economic data, real - estate transactions show mixed trends, consumption in the automobile sector has improved, movie consumption has marginally improved but is still weaker than the seasonal average, export - related port throughput has improved, and industrial production improvement has slowed down [62]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The direction of the Fed's interest - rate cut in December is unclear. The US non - farm payrolls data was not released on time due to the government shutdown. Fed officials have increasing differences on whether to continue cutting interest rates in December. US bonds rose, while the bond markets in the UK and Germany fell [70][71][72]. 3.5 Performance of Major Asset Classes - The CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Nanhua Crude Oil Index increased, while the Nanhua Rebar Index weakened, and both Shanghai copper and Shanghai gold adjusted. This week, the performance of major asset classes was: convertible bonds > crude oil > CSI 300 > CSI 1000 > live pigs > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > China bonds > US dollar > Shanghai gold > Shanghai copper > rebar [78]. 3.6 Policy Review - Multiple policies were released this week, including the "China's Actions for Carbon Peak and Carbon Neutrality" white paper, the "Report on the Implementation of China's Fiscal Policy in the First Half of 2025", the revised "Administrative Measures for the Securities Settlement Risk Fund", the "Analysis Report on Inclusive Finance Indicators (2024 - 2025)", etc. Attention should be paid to the implementation of these policies in related fields [81][83][85]

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Report's Core View - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal this week reached the highest level since February 2024, but the liquidity remained generally loose at the beginning of the month. After the large - scale maturity of the 3M repurchase on Friday, the liquidity tightened marginally, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3%. The central bank may increase hedging after such a tightening, and the liquidity is expected to return to stability [3][7]. - The government bond net payment scale will rise to a new high since mid - July next week. The central bank's possible increase in the scale of buying treasury bonds in the open market to replace repurchase operations to supplement medium - and long - term liquidity is worthy of attention [3][18]. - It is estimated that the government bond issuance scale in November will be about 1.84 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 1.15 trillion yuan, an increase of about 620 billion yuan compared with October. The government bond issuance in December is expected to be about 2.37 trillion yuan, with a net financing of about 77 billion yuan [3][30]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs I. Money Market 1.1 This Week's Liquidity Review - The central bank's 7D OMO net withdrawal was 1.5722 trillion yuan this week, reaching the highest level since February 2024. The 3M repurchase operation on Wednesday offset the maturity on Friday. The liquidity remained loose at the beginning of the month and tightened marginally on Friday after the 3M repurchase maturity, but the DR001 remained stable at slightly above 1.3% [3][7]. - After the cross - month period, the repurchase market activity increased. The average daily trading volume of pledged repurchase rose by 1.27 trillion yuan to 7.97 trillion yuan compared with last week. The overall scale of pledged repurchase returned above 12 trillion yuan but decreased significantly on Friday [3][14]. - The new - caliber liquidity gap index fluctuated downward to - 838.3 billion on Thursday and rebounded to - 488.7 billion on Friday, still lower than last Friday. The weekly excess reserve ratio dropped to 0.9%, a new low since mid - September [3][14][18]. 1.2 Next Week's Liquidity Outlook - The treasury bond payment scale next week is expected to be 315.9 billion yuan, and the local bond issuance scale in 12 regions is 285.1 billion yuan, with an actual payment scale of 230.5 billion yuan. The government bond net payment scale will rise from 36.8 billion yuan this week to 424.2 billion yuan, a new high since mid - July [20][22]. - The 7 - day reverse repurchase maturity scale next week will decrease from 2.07 trillion yuan to 495.8 billion yuan. The new stock issuance of Nante Technology on the Beijing Stock Exchange may bring some disturbances to the exchange liquidity price from Tuesday to Wednesday. The central bank is expected to increase liquidity injection to stabilize the market [3][38]. II. Inter - bank Certificates of Deposit - The 1Y Shibor rate dropped 1.7BP to 1.65% this week, and the secondary rate of 1 - year AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit rose 0.2BP to 1.63% [3][39]. - The net financing scale of inter - bank certificates of deposit rose by 1.01 billion yuan to 163.8 billion yuan this week. The net financing scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 23.9 billion yuan, - 57.5 billion yuan, 170.6 billion yuan, and 33.1 billion yuan respectively. The issuance proportion of 1Y certificates of deposit decreased to 24%, and the 6M certificates of deposit had the highest issuance proportion at 38% [3][42]. - The issuance success rates of state - owned banks and joint - stock banks decreased this week, while those of city commercial banks and rural commercial banks increased. The issuance spread between city commercial banks and joint - stock banks for 1Y certificates of deposit widened [43]. - The supply - demand relative strength index of certificates of deposit first decreased and then increased this week. The 3M supply - demand index rose, while the other maturity varieties decreased slightly [54]. III. Bill Market - The bill rates rebounded significantly this week but remained at a low level overall. The 3M and 6M national bill rates rose 36BP and 41BP respectively compared with October 31, reaching 0.37% and 0.61% [59]. IV. Bond Trading Sentiment Tracking - The bond market adjusted slightly this week, and the credit spread narrowed slightly. The willingness of large banks to increase bond holdings weakened, while the willingness of trading - type institutions to increase bond holdings decreased significantly, and the willingness of allocation - type institutions to increase bond holdings increased [62].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significant challenges facing the US dollar's credibility in the long term, highlighting a potential restructuring of the international monetary system if allied nations collectively lose confidence in the dollar [1][6][7]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Decisions - In September, the Federal Reserve restarted interest rate cuts, lowering rates by 25 basis points, which is not directly indicative of a weakening dollar credit [3][4]. - The Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment is under pressure, particularly with deteriorating employment data and inflation concerns stemming from Trump's tariffs [3][4]. - The Fed's decision to cut rates was made despite external pressures for larger cuts, indicating a commitment to its established policy path [4]. Group 2: Challenges Facing the Dollar - The Federal Reserve is facing a triple dilemma: policy indecision, confusion in monetary policy expectations, and threats to its independence [1][5]. - Trump's interventions in Fed policy and potential changes in leadership could further undermine the Fed's independence and the dollar's credibility [5][6]. - The ongoing trade policies and tariffs under Trump's administration are eroding the dollar's international standing and could lead to a reconfiguration of the global monetary order [6][7]. Group 3: Global Monetary System Dynamics - The article notes a significant increase in gold prices, reflecting a shift towards a multipolar international monetary system, with emerging markets increasing their gold reserves [6][12]. - The decline in the dollar's share of global reserves does not automatically benefit other non-dollar currencies, as they face their own structural challenges [12][13]. - The potential for a "de-dollarization" trend is highlighted, particularly if allied nations lose faith in the dollar due to ongoing US economic policies [6][7]. Group 4: Implications for China - China is encouraged to recognize the opportunity presented by the US's declining global economic leadership and to enhance the international status of the renminbi [13][14]. - Strengthening the domestic economy and improving the financial market system are crucial for increasing the attractiveness of renminbi assets [14][15]. - Historical lessons from the euro and yen's internationalization processes emphasize the importance of economic strength and the establishment of a robust currency settlement function [16][17].

Group 1 - In October, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, reversing from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month, driven by effective domestic demand policies and the impact of the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival holidays [1] - Food prices decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in October, with the decline narrowing by 1.5 percentage points compared to the previous month. Pork prices fell by 16%, with a reduction of 1.0 percentage point, while fresh vegetable prices dropped by 7.3%, a significant narrowing of 6.4 percentage points [1] - Non-food prices increased by 0.9% in October, with service prices rising by 0.8%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [2] Group 2 - The core CPI, excluding food and energy prices, rose by 1.2% year-on-year in October, marking the highest increase since March 2024 and expanding for six consecutive months [4] - The "old-for-new" policy has positively impacted the prices of automobiles and home appliances, contributing to the recent increase in core CPI [4] - Looking ahead, it is expected that the year-on-year decline in food CPI will significantly narrow in November due to a high base effect from the previous year [4] Group 3 - The chief economist at China Minsheng Bank indicated that as domestic demand and consumption policies take effect, the market supply-demand relationship is gradually improving, leading to a stable increase in consumer goods and service prices [5] - Key factors to monitor include the progress of pig production capacity reduction, the challenges posed by supply surplus and weak demand, and the impact of increased regulation on low-price competition among enterprises [5]

Core Viewpoint - The issuance of $4 billion sovereign bonds by the Ministry of Finance of the People's Republic of China in Hong Kong was met with strong market demand, reflecting high international investor confidence in China's sovereign credit and long-term economic stability [1][2]. Group 1: Bond Issuance Details - The issuance included $2 billion in 3-year bonds at an interest rate of 3.646% and $2 billion in 5-year bonds at an interest rate of 3.787% [1]. - The total subscription amount reached $118.2 billion, which is 30 times the issuance amount, marking the highest subscription level in previous dollar sovereign bond issuances [1]. - The 5-year bonds had an impressive subscription multiple of 33 times [1]. Group 2: Market Impact and Investor Confidence - The diverse range of investors included 53% from Asia, 25% from Europe, 16% from the Middle East, and 6% from the United States, indicating broad geographical interest [2]. - The types of investors were varied, with sovereign entities, banks and insurance companies, fund management, and dealers making up 42%, 24%, 32%, and 2% respectively [2]. - The high subscription rates demonstrate China's strong appeal in the international financial market, transcending regional boundaries [2]. Group 3: Strategic Importance - The issuance of these bonds helps to optimize China's debt structure and enhances the diversity of its foreign debt currency, making it more rational [3]. - Continuous issuance of dollar sovereign bonds and positive market responses increase China's influence in international financial markets and provide it with greater voice in financial rule-making [3]. - Since 2009, the Ministry of Finance has regularly issued sovereign bonds abroad, including RMB, dollar, and euro-denominated bonds, improving the issuance mechanism [2].

Group 1: US Treasury and Labor Market - The US Treasury's financing strategy is expected to become more flexible and proactive, considering market structure factors, which may not lead to a significant rise in yields from refinancing announcements [1] - The US labor market showed weakness with over 150,000 layoffs in October, the largest since 2003, leading to market overreactions regarding labor market signals [2] - Analysts suggest that if expectations for significant Fed rate cuts persist, the 10-year US Treasury yield could drop to 3.8%-3.9% in the next three to six months [2] Group 2: UK and Eurozone Monetary Policy - Nomura Securities has adjusted its forecast for the Bank of England's rate cuts, now expecting the current cycle to end in April next year, with a potential cut in December [2] - Societe Generale's analysts believe that for German 10-year bond yields to exceed 3%, the European Central Bank would need to raise rates further and accumulate term premiums [3] Group 3: Economic Forecasts - Barclays raised its GDP growth forecast for South Korea in 2026 from 1.7% to 2.1%, attributing this to a recovery in the semiconductor industry and increased foreign investment [3] - The current account surplus forecast for South Korea was also increased from $8.4 billion to $11 billion for 2026 [3]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the "Analysis Report on China's Inclusive Finance Indicators (2024-2025)", highlighting the ongoing positive development of inclusive finance in 2024, with new characteristics emerging [1][4] Group 1: Financial Support and Development - Financial support for rural revitalization is becoming more robust, with financial resources accelerating towards agricultural sectors, and the balance of operating and consumption loans for farmers continuing to grow [4] - Credit support for private and small micro enterprises is increasing, with the scale of loans to the private economy continuing to rise, and inclusive small micro loans maintaining growth in volume, reduction in price, and improvement in quality [4] - The balance of loans for technology-based small and medium enterprises is growing rapidly, with an increasing loan approval rate [4] Group 2: Financial Services and Digital Currency - The number of bank settlement accounts continues to increase, and the efficiency of account services is improving [4] - The pilot application of digital RMB has expanded to 26 regions across 17 provinces and cities, with a steady increase in the scale of digital payments [4] Group 3: Financial Mechanisms and Market Development - The financing support mechanism is being continuously improved, with the launch of a national credit information sharing platform for small and micro enterprises, and an increasing coverage rate of the financial credit information database [4] - The inclusiveness and accessibility of multi-level capital markets are enhancing, with ongoing pilot programs for inclusive finance on the Beijing Stock Exchange and New Third Board [4] Group 4: Insurance and Risk Management - The supply system for inclusive insurance products is further improving, with ongoing optimization of insurance policies for key grain crops, and increases in both insurance density and depth [4]

Core Insights - In 2024, inclusive finance in China continues to show strong development momentum while presenting new characteristics [1] Group 1: Financial Support for Rural Revitalization - Financial resources are increasingly directed towards rural revitalization, with growth in agricultural operating loans and consumer loans, and a steady expansion in loan coverage for impoverished populations [1] Group 2: Support for Private and Small Enterprises - Continuous increase in credit support for private and small enterprises, with a growing scale of loans to the private economy and a favorable trend in inclusive small and micro loans, characterized by volume growth, price reduction, and quality improvement [1] - Rapid growth in loans to technology-based small and medium-sized enterprises, with an increasing loan approval rate [1] Group 3: Optimized Loan Policies for Key Groups - Further optimization of entrepreneurship guarantee loans and student loan policies for key groups, with improved accessibility of banking services for the elderly and disabled [1] - A richer product system to meet the financial service needs in the livelihood sector [1] Group 4: Increase in Bank Account Services - Continuous increase in the number of bank settlement accounts and improved service efficiency [1] - Expansion of digital RMB application trials to 26 regions across 17 provinces (municipalities), with a steady increase in digital payment scale [1] Group 5: Enhanced Financing Mechanisms - Continuous improvement of financing support mechanisms, including the launch of a national credit information sharing platform for small and micro enterprises [1] - Increasing coverage of financial credit information databases for enterprises and organizations, with rapid growth in local credit platform services [1] - Expansion of government financing guarantee business scale [1] Group 6: Inclusive Capital Markets - Enhanced inclusiveness and accessibility of multi-level capital markets, with in-depth promotion of inclusive finance pilots on the Beijing Stock Exchange and New Third Board [1] - Increasing variety of agricultural product futures and options, with a sustained increase in "insurance + futures" projects to manage agricultural risks [1] - Stable issuance and existence scale of rural revitalization bonds and asset-backed securities [1] Group 7: Improvement in Inclusive Insurance Products - Further improvement in the supply system of inclusive insurance products, with ongoing optimization of key grain crop insurance policies [1] - Increase in both insurance density and depth, along with growth in the scale of agricultural insurance risk coverage and claims payments [1]

1. Macroeconomic Data Overview - GDP growth rate in Q3 2025 was 4.8% year - on - year, down from 5.2% in the previous quarter but up from 4.6% in the same period last year [1] - Manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 49%, down from 49.8% in the previous month and 50.1% in the same period last year [1] - Non - manufacturing PMI in October 2025 was 50.1%, up from 50% in the previous month but down from 50.2% in the same period last year [1] - In September 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.5%, 7.2%, and 8.4% respectively [1] - In September 2025, CPI was - 0.3% year - on - year, and PPI was - 2.3% year - on - year [1] - In September 2025, exports and imports increased by 8.3% and 7.4% year - on - year respectively [1] 2. Commodity Investment Reference 2.1 Comprehensive - China conducts license reviews on rare earths and related items in accordance with laws and regulations, aiming to ensure the security and stability of the global industrial and supply chains [2] - After the gold tax policy adjustment on November 1st, the Shenzhen Shuibei gold market has experienced "pricing chaos", with the gap between purchase and recycling prices widening significantly [2] - On November 6th, 32 domestic commodity varieties had positive basis, and 36 had negative basis [3] 2.2 Metals - On November 6th, international precious metal futures generally closed lower due to the Fed's stance on inflation and monetary policy [4] - Many institutions believe that a new cycle of resource commodities may have begun [5] - On November 6th, LME nickel cancelled warehouse receipts decreased by 7,218 tons, the largest decline since May [6] 2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - Multiple provinces and cities have issued air pollution prevention and control action plans for the autumn and winter of 2025 - 2026, with some steel enterprises facing production restrictions [7] - The US has included copper in its 2025 list of critical minerals [7] - Indonesia has stopped approving applications for nickel ore processing plants producing certain intermediate products [7] 2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On November 6th, the main contract of US crude oil closed lower due to concerns about supply surplus and weak demand [8] - A new safety standard for chemical enterprises' flammable liquid atmospheric storage tank areas will be implemented on April 30, 2026 [8] - Saudi Aramco has lowered its crude oil selling prices to Asia for December [8] 2.5 Agricultural Products - Market regulatory authorities are soliciting public opinions on the "List of First - Time Non - Penalty for Administrative Violations in Market Supervision (II)" and the "List of Non - Penalty for Minor Administrative Violations in Market Supervision (II)" [10] - Malaysian enterprises will ensure the supply of raw materials for local sustainable aviation fuel plants [10] - Germany's grain corn production in 2025 is expected to decrease by 3.5% year - on - year [11] 3. Financial News Compilation 3.1 Open Market - On November 6th, the central bank conducted 928 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 249.8 billion yuan [12] 3.2 Important News - China aims to achieve the goals of Hainan Free Trade Port construction, expanding institutional opening - up and promoting the cross - border flow of production factors [13] - The Dutch government is responsible for the escalation of the global supply chain crisis regarding the Anshi Semiconductor issue [13] - Most multinational enterprises are confident in the Chinese market, with an increasing proportion optimistic about China's economic growth in the next 3 - 5 years [14] - A polysilicon industry consolidation may be on the way, with a planned fund of about 70 billion yuan [15] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to improve the central bank system and the "dual - pillar" regulatory framework of monetary and macro - prudential policies [16] - The US employment situation is severe, increasing the expectation of a Fed rate cut in December [20] - The UK central bank maintained its interest rate at 4%, with increased internal divergence [20] 3.3 Bond Market Summary - A - share strength put pressure on the bond market, with bond yields generally rising and some bond prices falling [22] - Convertible bond indices showed mixed performance, with some bonds rising and others falling [23] - US and European bond yields generally declined [26] 3.4 Foreign Exchange Market - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on November 6th, and the US dollar index fell [27] 3.5 Research Report Highlights - Huatai Securities warns of potential risks in overseas AI development, especially during the transition period [28] - CITIC Securities expects the real estate market to stabilize in 2026, and some enterprises may see the bottom of the profit cycle [28] - Shenwan Fixed Income believes that floating - rate bonds have advantages and the market may expand [29] - UBS Group analyzes the potential impact of a possible US Supreme Court ruling on Trump's tariff policy [29] 4. Stock Market News - A - shares rose unilaterally, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to 4000 points, and the computing power hardware industry chain booming [32] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and related indices rose, with some new stocks breaking their issue prices [32] - MSCI China Index added 26 stocks and removed 20 stocks in its November adjustment [32] - China Securities Index Company will release new indices on November 7th [33]

Core Insights - The Tianjin Green Finance Development Index has shown significant growth from 100.00 in 2020 to 163.60 in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 13.1%, indicating rapid development and potential in green finance in Tianjin [1][2] Group 1: Green Finance Development - The release of the green finance index marks a new phase of standardization and precision in Tianjin's green finance development [1] - Tianjin has established a green finance ecosystem characterized by "policy empowerment + standard guidance + product innovation" to support the "dual carbon" strategy and promote industrial upgrading [1][2] Group 2: Financial Standards and Innovations - Tianjin has introduced the first targeted financial standards for the chemical industry in the country and has been approved as a pilot city for steel industry transformation financial standards [2] - The city has launched the first information platform for standardized green leasing and has introduced various group standards for green financing and commercial factoring [2] Group 3: Financial Metrics - As of September this year, the balance of green loans in Tianjin reached 847.8 billion yuan, reflecting a 19% increase since the beginning of the year, significantly surpassing the average growth rate of other loans [2] - The local financial management bureau aims to enhance the quality and efficiency of green finance development by focusing on innovation, standard support, and collaborative efforts [2]