盘后数据出炉。 2.沪深300今日主力资金净流入63.21亿元 沪深300今日主力资金净流入63.21亿元，创业板净流入9.22亿元，科创板净流出45.54亿元。 | | 各板块最近五个交易日主力资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 沪深300 | 创业板 | 科创板 | | 2025-9-29 | 63. 21 | 9.22 | -45. 54 | | 2025-9-26 | -197. 33 | -326.76 | -30. 57 | | 2025-9-25 | -6. 27 | -89.27 | -33. 46 | | 2025-9-24 | 80. 87 | 44. 33 | -32. 71 | | 2025-9-23 | -195.08 | -249.03 | -6. 85 | | | 尾盘资金净流入数据(亿元) | | | | 2025-9-29 | 1.62 | 1. 39 | 0. 86 | | 2025-9-26 | -32. 26 | -58. 32 | -7.76 | | 2025-9-25 | -6. 43 | -18. ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3882.78 points, up 0.52%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13526.51 points, up 0.35%. The STAR 50 Index showed strong performance, rising by 1.69% [1] - Total trading volume in the A-share market reached 21,975.53 billion, an increase of 191.59 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital in the A-share market saw a net outflow of 327.9 billion, with an opening net outflow of 52.47 billion and a closing net outflow of 28.73 billion [2][3] - The CSI 300 index recorded a net outflow of 167.79 billion, while the ChiNext saw a net outflow of 119.67 billion, and the STAR Market had a net outflow of 27.9 billion [4][5] Sector Performance - Among the 9 sectors that experienced capital inflow, the defense and military industry led with a net inflow of 69.18 billion, followed by non-ferrous metals with 66.34 billion [6][7] - The top five sectors with net inflows included: - Defense and Military: 69.18 billion, up 2.34% - Non-ferrous Metals: 66.34 billion, up 2.45% - Biopharmaceuticals: 35.69 billion, up 0.68% - Power Equipment: 29.38 billion, up 1.00% - Real Estate: 21.70 billion, up 0.96% [7] Institutional Activity - The institutional buying activity was noted in several stocks, with Huahong Semiconductor seeing a net institutional purchase of 68.43 million [9][10] - The stocks with significant institutional interest included: - Huahong Semiconductor: 68.43 million - Duofu Du: 33.24 million - Huijin Co.: 22.31 million [10] Stock Recommendations - Recent institutional focus on stocks includes: - Xiaoshangcheng with a target price of 23.75, current price 18.55, indicating a potential upside of 28.03% - Tianan New Materials with a target price of 14.00, current price 9.75, indicating a potential upside of 43.59% - China National Aviation with a target price of 13.52, current price 7.91, indicating a potential upside of 70.92% [11]

Group 1 - A-shares indices collectively rose on September 30, with most industry sectors experiencing gains, particularly in energy metals, storage chips, lithium mining, semiconductors, and battery sectors [1] - The main funds saw a net outflow of 32.79 billion yuan across the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, with only the retail trade and defense industries showing net inflows of 1.52 billion yuan and 1.01 billion yuan, respectively [1] - Among the 29 industries with net outflows, non-bank financial and telecommunications sectors had the largest outflows, each exceeding 5 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - Nine stocks saw net inflows exceeding 500 million yuan, with GoerTek leading at 970 million yuan, attributed to advancements in AI glasses technology [2][3] - Shanzi Gaoke followed with a net inflow of 755 million yuan, as the company announced progress in debt restructuring involving a payment of 33 million euros to a banking syndicate [2] - A total of 51 stocks experienced net outflows exceeding 200 million yuan, with Lingyi Technology, New Yisheng, and Dongfang Wealth among those with outflows exceeding 1.1 billion yuan [4][5] Group 3 - Tail-end trading saw a net outflow of 2.873 billion yuan, with electronic and environmental sectors attracting over 200 million yuan in net inflows [6] - GoerTek and Guoguang Electric were among the stocks with significant tail-end net inflows, each exceeding 100 million yuan [6][7] - Conversely, Tianqi Materials and Sunshine Power experienced net outflows exceeding 200 million yuan during the tail-end trading [8]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets have shown synchronized gains, driven by technology growth sectors and resource products, reflecting a clear characteristic of "policy dividend release and industrial trend resonance" [1] Market Performance - A-share indices achieved five consecutive monthly gains, with the ChiNext Index rising over 12% this month, reaching a three-year high, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increasing over 11%, marking a nearly four-year high [1] - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Technology Index surged 2.24%, hitting a nearly four-year high, with a monthly increase of 13.95%, indicating strong capital allocation towards technology [1] - A-share trading volume reached 2.2 trillion yuan, while Hong Kong's trading volume was 314.9 billion HKD, reflecting active market trading and increased risk appetite [1] Sector Highlights and Driving Logic - In the A-share market, technology and resource sectors led the gains, with the non-ferrous metals sector rising 3.22% and storage chip concepts experiencing a significant surge due to price increases from major players like Samsung and Micron [3] - The lithium battery electrolyte index rose 5.15%, supported by policy backing and technological advancements in the new energy industry [3] - In the Hong Kong market, the semiconductor and consumer electronics sectors performed well, with the semiconductor sector increasing by 4.73% due to rising storage prices and domestic substitution trends [3] Underperforming Sectors and Driving Logic - Traditional defensive sectors in the A-share market, such as banking and non-bank financials, experienced declines, with the banking sector down 0.74% amid doubts about profit recovery before interest rate changes [4] - In the Hong Kong market, cyclical and defensive sectors faced pressure, with energy stocks dropping 1.25% due to OPEC+ plans to increase oil production, leading to a decline in international oil prices [4] Investment Strategy Recommendations - The current market is at a critical juncture of "intensive policy implementation and accelerated industrial trends," with short-term focus on technology growth sectors showing significant profit potential [5] - Recommended short-term investment directions include storage chips and semiconductor equipment benefiting from price cycle reversals, non-ferrous metals supported by global liquidity and policy tools, and new energy sectors like lithium battery electrolytes [5] - For the medium to long term, the market focus will revolve around "artificial intelligence+" and high-end manufacturing, with suggestions to preemptively invest in the semiconductor supply chain, new energy, and defense industries [6]

大盘指数 4000 14000 3000 8000 7000 策略观点 以时间换空间 投资要点 9月主要股指表现分化,成长风格独领风骚。截至9月26日,上 证指数下跌 0.77%,深证成指上涨 4.04%,创业板指上涨 9.04%,沪深 300 上涨 1.19%,上证 50下跌 1.19%,科创 50 上涨 8.16%。按风格来 看,稳定风格下跌 1.67%,金融风格下跌 6.13%,消费风格下跌 2.60%, 周期风格上涨2.24%,成长风格上涨4.06%。大盘指数上涨1.31%,中 盘指数上涨 3.62%,小盘指数下跌 0.30%,茅指数上涨 3.25%,宁组合 上涨 9.44%。 节奏上,外部扰动较少,A股节奏先抑后扬。A 股在 9.3 阅兵后 一度出现较大跌幅,但又很快在创业板的带动下收复失地继续上行。 从整月来看,A股在9月并没有面临什么重大的外部扰动,内部经济 数据保持平稳,美联储降息也符合市场预期,节奏更多由市场自身博 弈决定。 资料来源:聚源,中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:黄子签 SAC 登记编号:S1340523090002 Email : huangziyin@cnpsec. com 近 ...

沪指9月30日上涨0.52%，申万所属行业中，今日上涨的有19个，涨幅居前的行业为有色金属、国防军 工，涨幅分别为3.22%、2.59%。跌幅居前的行业为通信、非银金融，跌幅分别为1.83%、1.14%。非银 金融行业位居今日跌幅榜第二。 资金面上看，两市主力资金全天净流出323.03亿元，今日有4个行业主力资金净流入，国防军工行业主 力资金净流入规模居首，该行业今日上涨2.59%，全天净流入资金20.78亿元，其次是有色金属行业，日 涨幅为3.22%，净流入资金为19.84亿元。 主力资金净流出的行业有27个，非银金融行业主力资金净流出规模居首，全天净流出资金114.05亿元， 其次是通信行业，净流出资金为59.36亿元，净流出资金较多的还有机械设备、银行、电力设备等行 业。 | 代码 | 简称 | 今日涨跌幅（%） | 今日换手率（%） | 主力资金流量（万元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 300059 | 东方财富 | -1.67 | 4.28 | -157354.35 | | 601211 | 国泰海通 | -1.10 | 1.73 | -127595.94 ...

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% on September 30, with 19 industries experiencing gains, led by non-ferrous metals and defense industries, which increased by 3.22% and 2.59% respectively [1] - The communication and non-bank financial sectors saw the largest declines, with decreases of 1.83% and 1.14% respectively [1] Capital Flow - The main capital outflow from the two markets totaled 32.303 billion yuan, with only four industries seeing net inflows [1] - The defense industry had the highest net inflow of 2.59%, amounting to 2.078 billion yuan, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector with a net inflow of 1.984 billion yuan [1] Comprehensive Industry Analysis - The comprehensive industry fell by 1.06% with a net capital outflow of 20.8 million yuan, consisting of 16 stocks, of which 4 rose and 12 fell [2] - The stock with the highest net inflow in the comprehensive industry was Yuegui Co., with an inflow of 31.01 million yuan, followed by Taida Co. and Ningbo United, with inflows of 2.6215 million yuan and 1.3959 million yuan respectively [2] - The stocks with the largest net outflows included Dongyangguang, Tianchen Co., and Yatai Group, with outflows of 194 million yuan, 10.6867 million yuan, and 9.0284 million yuan respectively [2]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% on September 30, with 19 out of 28 sectors experiencing gains, led by the non-ferrous metals and defense industries, which increased by 3.22% and 2.59% respectively [1] - Conversely, the communication and non-bank financial sectors saw declines of 1.83% and 1.14% respectively [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The main capital flow showed a net outflow of 32.30 billion yuan across the two markets, with only four sectors experiencing net inflows [1] - The defense industry led the net inflow with 2.07 billion yuan, followed by the non-ferrous metals sector with a net inflow of 1.98 billion yuan [1] Mechanical Equipment Sector Performance - The mechanical equipment sector experienced a slight decline of 0.02%, with a net outflow of 3.43 billion yuan [2] - Out of 531 stocks in this sector, 189 rose while 330 fell, with three stocks hitting the daily limit up and one hitting the limit down [2] - The top three stocks with significant net inflows were Hezhuan Intelligent (4.27 billion yuan), Xinlai Materials (1.50 billion yuan), and Zhongkong Technology (1.30 billion yuan) [2] Mechanical Equipment Sector Outflow - The top stocks with the highest net outflows included Huagong Technology (-1.47 billion yuan), Yingweike (-589.68 million yuan), and Xinqi Microelectronics (-168.35 million yuan) [3] - The sector's overall performance reflected a mixed sentiment among investors, with notable volatility in individual stock movements [3]

Group 1 - The convertible bond market experienced a slight increase of 0.6% in September, following a 2% rise in the stock market, with high valuations suppressing performance and significant outflows from ETFs [3][5][10] - The semiconductor, optical communication, humanoid robots, and lithium battery sectors showed rapid rotation, indicating a highly structural market [3][5][10] - The convertible bond ETF scale decreased by 6.2% to 70 billion, reflecting a net outflow trend throughout the month [3][8][10] Group 2 - The outlook for the convertible bond market suggests that high-priced varieties still have potential elasticity, although there are risks of correction [3][40] - The strategy for October emphasizes a balanced approach, focusing on mid-cap and large-cap growth stocks, with a preference for convertible bonds that are mid to high-priced [3][40][43] - Recommended convertible bond combinations for October include Hengyi Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Hongfa Convertible Bond, and others [3][40] Group 3 - In September, the electronic and automotive sectors led the gains in convertible bonds, with increases of 6.5% and 6.4% respectively, while non-bank financials and banks saw declines [3][22][24] - The performance of high-priced convertible bonds was strong, with a year-to-date increase of 24.3%, while mid and low-priced bonds saw lower gains [3][31][32] - The convertible bond market showed a divergence in performance, with mid to low-rated bonds rising nearly 2%, while high-rated bonds fell by 2% [3][37]

Demand and Price Trends - Total demand remains stable with no significant slowdown observed, indicating a gradual narrowing of economic fluctuations[2] - Industrial enterprise profits in August increased by 20.4% year-on-year, a significant rebound of 21.9 percentage points from the previous month, marking three consecutive months of profit growth[4] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) year-on-year growth is expected to continue rising due to low base effects, supporting profit margins[4] Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook - The manufacturing PMI for September is at 49.8, a slight increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a broad-based economic recovery[6] - The service sector PMI stands at 50.1, down 0.4 percentage points but still within the expansion zone, reflecting overall stability in the service industry[7] - The upcoming Fourth Plenary Session in October is anticipated to provide investment guidance for related industries, particularly regarding the "14th Five-Year Plan"[11] Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is expected to face headwinds this year, influenced by stock market gains, tax adjustments, and potential inflationary pressures[14] - Long-term bond yields have recently risen, with the 30-year bond yield reaching its highest level this year, indicating ongoing adjustments in the bond market[13] - The overall sentiment suggests that the bond market is still in a phase of adjustment, with upward risks to yields outweighing downward possibilities[14] U.S. Economic Indicators - The U.S. PCE inflation rate for August is reported at 2.7%, with core PCE at 2.9%, indicating persistent inflationary pressures[16] - The U.S. manufacturing PMI for September is at 52.0, down 1 percentage point, while the services PMI is at 52.9, reflecting resilience in the U.S. economy despite slight declines[18] - Market expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have slightly decreased, with projections indicating two rate cuts in 2025, occurring in October and December[19]