（本文作者付一夫为苏商银行特约研究员） 刚刚过去的2025年，可谓是A股市场历史性的"跃升之年"，在制度改革与产业趋势的双重驱动下，实现 了一系列标志性突破。 从指数层面看，市场走出了一轮特征鲜明的"慢牛"行情，上证指数中枢从年初的3200点左右稳步上行， 并一度成功站上4000点，创下近十年新高。至年末，沪指更是走出了"11连阳"，展现出极为强劲的韧 性。不仅如此，A股市场的活跃度与体量达到全新水平，全年累计成交额首次突破400万亿元，日均成 交达1.72万亿元。此外，A股总市值在年内首次跨越100万亿元大关，成为全球第二大股票市场。而在结 构层面，大科技成为无可争议的最强主线，人工智能、半导体、算力、人形机器人等硬科技板块贯穿全 年行情，催生了多只翻倍牛股。 那么在2026年，A股又将如何表现？驱动逻辑是否会发生变化？收益预期是否需要调整？针对这些问 题，本文将尝试给出答案。 一、2026年宏观环境：内修外稳，质效并举 就基本面而言，2025年我国经济社会发展主要目标顺利实现，前三季度GDP同比增长5.2%，在全球主 要经济体中保持前列，为"十五五"开局奠定坚实基础。面对2026年复杂的内外环境，中央明确 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transportation sector faces significant challenges in information connectivity and data sharing, prompting the government to accelerate the efficient development and utilization of public data resources to enhance industry governance and service levels, ultimately driving quality improvement and transformation in the sector [1] Group 1: Implementation Opinions - The "Implementation Opinions" aim to eliminate institutional and technical barriers, continuously improve the development and utilization of public data resources in transportation, and support the growth of the transportation data industry [1][2] - By 2030, the management and technical systems for public data resource development and utilization in transportation are expected to mature, with a comprehensive high-quality data resource system established, significantly enhancing data integration and innovative application levels [1] Group 2: Data Resource Directory and Open Policies - A multi-level, multi-transportation mode public data resource directory system will be established, along with a collaborative data collection mechanism among provinces to efficiently aggregate key industry data on a national platform [2] - Policies for the open access of public data resources will be formulated, prioritizing the release of data closely related to public welfare and urgent social needs, thereby improving the timeliness, completeness, and accuracy of open data [2] Group 3: Application Innovation and Integration - The focus will be on promoting data integration and application innovation in areas such as infrastructure smart expansion, safety enhancement, passenger intermodal transport, and logistics cost reduction [2] - Typical demonstration scenarios will be created to integrate transportation data with resources from public security, energy, tourism, satellite remote sensing, meteorology, and financial insurance, supporting the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries [2] Group 4: Data Infrastructure and Security - The national comprehensive transportation information platform will serve as the foundation for data circulation and utilization facilities, providing unified directory identification, identity registration, and interface requirements to promote a trusted data space in the industry [4] - High-quality data sets will be constructed in areas such as operational monitoring, safety emergencies, and comprehensive law enforcement to support the application of "artificial intelligence + transportation" [4] Group 5: Regional Initiatives and Funding Support - Local initiatives, such as those in Zhejiang Province, have begun to authorize the operation and development of public transportation data, establishing a unified data operation platform to promote data sharing and integrated services [4] - The "Implementation Opinions" emphasize increasing financial support for data infrastructure construction, high-quality data set development, and data security capabilities, encouraging social capital participation in public data resource development [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the recovery of service consumption driven by the resurgence of travel during the New Year holiday, which has become the main force for domestic demand recovery [1] - The report highlights the optimistic outlook for the development of overseas business in the consumer sector by 2026, alongside a focus on high-dividend quality companies during market style shifts [1] - The report notes that the 2026 policy direction will significantly boost consumption, with a particular emphasis on experiential service consumption as a key growth area [1] Group 2 - During the New Year holiday, transportation data indicates a total of 590 million people traveled across regions, with an average of 198 million daily, marking a 19.5% year-on-year increase [1] - Railway passenger volume is expected to reach 48.22 million, a 53.1% increase year-on-year, while road travel is projected at 540 million, up 15.5% [1] - The report mentions that inbound tourism is continuing to grow, with ticket bookings for inbound travel during the New Year holiday increasing by 110% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - The first batch of national subsidies for 2026 has been issued, with 62.5 billion yuan allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, benefiting categories such as air conditioners and refrigerators [3] - Midea has initiated a price increase for air conditioners, implementing a tiered pricing strategy with a 2% increase on January 3 and an additional 4% on January 5 [3] - The report indicates that Midea's price increase is a response to rising copper costs and aims to improve the competitive landscape in the air conditioning industry [3] Group 4 - CES 2026 is set to take place from January 6 to 9, 2026, in Las Vegas, showcasing Chinese technology consumer products transitioning from innovative to mainstream [4] - The focus will be on smart home devices, electric vehicles, and various consumer electronics, with particular attention to stair-climbing vacuum cleaners for the European and American markets [4]

Group 1: Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Development - The city aims to optimize the layout of charging infrastructure during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period to meet the growing demand for electric vehicle charging and support the development of the electric vehicle industry [1] - The number of charging piles in the city increased from 230,000 to 479,000, and the number of battery swap stations rose from 158 to 360 [1] - The total charging volume for electric vehicles increased from 1.5 billion kWh to 3.5 billion kWh [1] Group 2: Coal Consumption and Energy Transition - By 2025, the city plans to reduce coal consumption by approximately 12.33 million tons, bringing the total coal consumption down to around 250,000 tons [2] - The "coal-to-electricity" program aims to upgrade the distribution network, with 1.37 million households participating [2] - The city has completed a transaction of 1.526 billion kWh for green electricity to replace reduced electricity from gas-fired power plants [2] Group 3: Green Transportation Initiatives - By 2025, the proportion of green travel in the central urban area is expected to reach 76.5%, an increase of 2.5 percentage points from 2020 [3] - The electrification rate of operational vehicles in the transportation sector is projected to exceed 46% by the end of 2025, with 100% of taxi vehicles being electric [3] - The city is focusing on building a green freight transport system, with a goal of achieving a 12% green transport ratio for goods by 2025 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The focus of observation has shifted to the government bond issuance in January 2026. The government bond issuance in January 2026 is in line with expectations. The long - end bonds are at the upper limit of the expected range and are worth participating in. For equities, the style is generally balanced with growth slightly dominant before the significant increase in government bond issuance. The report recommends a portfolio of the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), the China Securities 1000 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [2][8][21] - In the deleveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The report recommends an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][55] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Asset Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In November 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - economy sector was 8.6% (previous value: 8.7%), in line with expectations. It is expected to decline to around 8.3% in December 2025, lower than the 8.8% at the end of 2024, consistent with the goal of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio. The government debt growth rate is expected to decline to around 12.4% in December 2025 from 13.1% at the end of November 2025. The central bank's stance on stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio remains unchanged, and the quantitative fiscal targets are awaited from the Two Sessions in 2026 [2][16][17] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield rose to 1.34% at the weekend. It is estimated that the lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, with a central value around 1.4%, and a 10 - basis - point interest rate cut is expected in 2026. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 51 basis points. The spreads between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds and between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds are expected to be in the range of 20 - 50 basis points, and the future yield ranges of the ten - year and thirty - year Treasury bonds are expected to be around 1.6% - 1.9% and 1.8% - 2.3% respectively [3][17] - **Asset Side**: In November 2025, the physical volume data showed signs of stabilizing at a low level compared to October. The full - year real economic growth target for 2025 was set at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target was around 4.9%. It remains to be seen whether a nominal economic growth rate of around 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [4][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - **Macroeconomic Background**: Since 2011, China has entered a period of declining potential economic growth, which seems to have ended in Q4 2024. Subsequently, China's profit cycle has entered a state of narrow - range oscillation at a low level. The government's policy goals of stabilizing the macro - leverage ratio, having the financial sector benefit the real economy, and ensuring that housing is for living in rather than speculation are still in effect, and the deleveraging on the liability side has limited room for further contraction. If the valuation of the technology sector in the US is re - evaluated, global funds may flow from the US to China, and attention should be paid to whether the RMB exchange rate will enter an appreciation channel. The risk appetite may also oscillate within a certain range [6][19] - **Market Performance**: Last week, the capital market tightened marginally, resulting in a double - kill of stocks and bonds, with the growth style still dominant. The yields of both long - and short - term bonds rose, and the stock - bond cost - effectiveness favored stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield rose by 1 basis point to 1.85%, the one - year Treasury bond yield rose by 5 basis points to 1.34%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield rose by 4 basis points to 2.27%. The broad - based rotation strategy outperformed the CSI 300 Index by 0.03 pct last week but has underperformed the CSI 300 Index by - 5.34 pct since its establishment in July 2024, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300 Index) [7][20] 3.3 Industry Recommendations - **Industry Performance Review**: This week, the A - share market rose with increased trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.58% and the ChiNext Index fell 1.25%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, automobiles, and machinery and equipment had the largest increases, with weekly changes of 3.9%, 3.1%, 2.1%, 1.4%, and 1.3% respectively. Public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines, with weekly changes of - 2.7%, - 2.3%, - 2.2%, - 2.1%, and - 1.8% respectively [26][27] - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume**: As of December 31, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, power equipment, machinery and equipment, national defense and military industry, and computers, with values of 15.5%, 9.4%, 8.9%, 8%, and 6.8% respectively. The bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, steel, and petroleum and petrochemicals. The top five industries with increased crowding this week were media, machinery and equipment, household appliances, computers, and national defense and military industry. The trading volume of the entire A - share market rebounded this week. Media, petroleum and petrochemicals, computers, beauty care, and national defense and military industry had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [28][30] - **Industry Valuation and Earnings**: This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of petroleum and petrochemicals, national defense and military industry, media, machinery and equipment, and automobiles had the largest increases, while public utilities, food and beverages, power equipment, pharmaceuticals, and non - bank finance had the largest declines. Industries with high full - year 2024 profit forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to historical levels include banking, insurance, coal, public utilities, transportation, pharmaceuticals, beauty care, new energy, and consumer electronics [34][35] - **Industry Prosperity**: Externally, there was a marginal decline in demand. The global manufacturing PMI decreased from 50.5 to 50.4 in December. Internally, the second - hand housing price remained flat in the latest week, and the quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries showed a fluctuating upward trend from May to December 2025 [39] - **Public Fund Market Review**: In the fifth week of December (December 29 - 31), most actively managed public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300 Index. As of December 31, the net asset value of actively managed public equity funds was 3.95 trillion yuan, slightly up from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [52] - **Industry Recommendations**: In the deleveraging cycle, an A + H dividend portfolio of 13 stocks and an A - share portfolio of 20 stocks are recommended, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [55]

来源：光大证券 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2025年12月A股先跌后涨，整体窄幅震荡。但月中，中长期 资金开始逐步入市，其再次成为了市场的稳定器，叠加居民资金的持续流入，十二月下旬市场持续上 行，春季行情表现值得期待。 核心观点三：春季行情的风格与方向。历史上春季行情通常以成长与顺周期两条主线为主。从往年春季 行情中各板块的表现来看，成长板块在大多数时候均有不错的表现，此外，顺周期板块成为主线的次数 也较高，而成长+周期双主线的情景在过去13次春季行情中共出现过6次。相关行业的行情短期有较强 持续性，不过春季行情中的强势行业未必会成为年度主线。对于今年而言，我们认为消费与成长有望成 为春季行情的两条主线。 核心观点一：从震荡的四季度到春季行情。2025年12月A股先跌后涨，整体窄幅震荡。但月中，中长期 资金开始逐步入市，其再次成为了市场的稳定器，叠加居民资金的持续流入，十二月下旬市场持续上 行，春季行情表现值得期待。 核心观点二：对春季行情保持耐心。春季行情多数年份都存在，不过表现有明显差异，当前来看，12月 下旬的上涨或许就是本轮春季行情的起点。不过需要注意的是，从历史规律来看，上证指数当年1月 ...

（文章来源：第一财经） 光大证券研报表示，当前来看，2025年12月下旬的上涨或许是本轮春季行情起点。对于1月份指数的行 情，投资者或许应该保持耐心。消费与成长有望成为今年春季行情的两条主线。1月行业配置方面，关 注电子、电力设备、有色金属、汽车等。若市场风格为成长，五维行业比较框架打分靠前的行业分别为 电子、电力设备、通信、有色金属、汽车、国防军工；若1月份市场风格为防御，五维行业比较框架打 分靠前的行业分别为非银金融、电子、有色金属、电力设备、汽车、交通运输等。 ...

自市商务局获悉，元旦三天假期中，全市仅10大重点商贸监测企业就实现销售额2亿元，较去年同期增 长8.3%。据市 交通运输公共服务中心统计数据显示，三天假期，全市火车站、汽车站和 机场等主要对 外运输枢纽客流总量达到93.32万人次，日均31.11万人次，同比增长42.94%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Transport has issued implementation opinions to accelerate the development and utilization of public data resources in the transportation sector, aiming to enhance industry governance and service levels while supporting the growth of emerging industries such as artificial intelligence and smart driving [1][3]. Group 1: Overall Requirements - The initiative is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims to promote the compliant and efficient circulation of public data in transportation, breaking down institutional and technical barriers to enhance data resource development [4]. - By 2030, the goal is to establish a mature management and technical system for public data resources, significantly improving data integration and innovation application levels [4]. Group 2: Establishing a High-Quality Data Resource System - A comprehensive public data resource directory will be developed, covering various transportation modes and ensuring dynamic updates [5]. - The collection and aggregation of public data will be enhanced through digital transformation and IoT technologies, ensuring efficient data gathering at the national level [5]. - Efforts will be made to improve public data quality through source governance and multi-source verification [5]. Group 3: Strengthening Public Data Resource Supply - The sharing of government data will be deepened, with revised management measures to enhance data sharing mechanisms [6]. - Public data will be opened in an orderly manner, prioritizing data that is closely related to public welfare and social needs [6][7]. Group 4: Promoting Data Application Innovation - The initiative will enhance data collaboration across sectors, focusing on areas such as infrastructure safety and logistics efficiency [8]. - Cross-industry data integration will be promoted to support traditional industry upgrades and new emerging sectors [8]. Group 5: Strengthening Data Security Assurance - A comprehensive data security management system will be established to identify and assess risks associated with public data utilization [10]. - The capability for data security will be enhanced through various technical measures to prevent privacy breaches and misuse [10]. Group 6: Strengthening Policy Support - Increased financial support will be coordinated for data infrastructure and security capabilities, encouraging social capital participation [11]. - Policies and standards for data management will be improved to ensure effective governance and resource utilization [11][12]. Group 7: Organizational Implementation - The Ministry of Transport will lead the efforts, ensuring collaboration among various departments to enhance the effectiveness of public data resource development [12].

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Transport has issued an implementation opinion aimed at accelerating the development and utilization of public data resources in the transportation sector, with a goal to establish a mature management and technical system by 2030 [1] Group 1 - By 2030, the public data resource development and utilization management and technical system in the transportation sector is expected to be more mature [1] - A comprehensive high-quality data resource system for the industry will be fully established [1] - The level of data integration and innovative application is anticipated to significantly improve [1] Group 2 - Public data is projected to become an important driving force for promoting high-quality development in transportation [1]