Core Viewpoints - The A-share market experienced a collective decline on Thursday, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 1.39%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 2.02%, and the ChiNext Index by 1.11%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 21,107.59 billion yuan [2][9] - In terms of industry performance, coal, oil and petrochemicals, and public utilities led the gains, while non-ferrous metals, steel, and basic chemicals lagged behind. Concept sectors such as state-owned cloud, shale gas, and natural gas saw significant increases, while metals like lead, zinc, and copper faced declines [2][9] - The report highlights a positive outlook for the lithium battery industry, indicating a recovery in profitability and a new growth cycle driven by demand from both power storage and electric vehicles [12][14] Market Review - The A-share market indices collectively declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,006.55, down 1.39%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 13,901.57, down 2.02%. The total trading volume was 21,107.59 billion yuan [2][6] - The Hong Kong market also saw declines, with the Hang Seng Index down 2.02% and the Hang Seng Tech Index down 2.19%. In the overseas markets, the Dow Jones fell by 0.44%, the S&P 500 by 0.27%, and the Nasdaq by 0.28% [2][6] Important News - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to maintain stability in financial markets, including stocks, bonds, and foreign exchange, while managing financial risks in key areas. The central bank aims to support the smooth operation of financial markets and address risks in small financial institutions [3][10] - A new policy was released regarding the extension of rural land contracts for an additional 30 years, which is expected to benefit millions of farmers and ensure stability in rural areas [4][11] Industry Insights - The lithium battery industry is entering a new growth cycle, with demand driven by both power storage and electric vehicles. The report suggests focusing on the recovery of the industry cycle and breakthroughs in solid-state battery technology [12][14] - In 2025, the overall revenue of the lithium battery industry reached 636.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.12%, with net profit rising by 40.37% [14] - The global demand for lithium batteries is expected to grow significantly, with shipments projected to reach 2,280.5 GWh in 2025, marking a 47.6% year-on-year increase [15] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply-demand landscape is improving, with a focus on the materials segment benefiting from this trend. The report notes that the market share of leading battery manufacturers is increasing, and profitability is expected to remain stable [16] - The report highlights that the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is experiencing significant fluctuations, indicating a tight supply-demand balance in the electrolyte materials segment [16] Technological Advancements - Solid-state battery technology is identified as a key area for industry upgrade, with manufacturers entering the technical verification phase and pilot lines being established [17][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of advancements in equipment, electrolyte materials, and key auxiliary materials in the solid-state battery sector, which are expected to drive further growth [17][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand is marginally improving and inventory is gradually being depleted, there is no strong trend - driving force yet. Attention should be paid to the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - Due to negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts, iron ore prices are fluctuating widely. There is a need to pay attention to subsequent negotiation progress and geopolitical situation development [5]. - In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate before the Iran - US situation eases significantly. It is advisable to look for short - term rebound opportunities in undervalued and highly elastic varieties [9][15]. - For manganese silicon, factors such as supply - demand pattern, high inventory, and weak downstream demand are mostly priced in. Future market trends are mainly influenced by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) of ferrosilicon [10]. - In the short term, coking coal prices may have upward pulses due to market sentiment spillover, but in the medium - to - long term, coking coal prices are expected to be optimistic from June to October [15]. - Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly under cost support, while polysilicon is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [18][20]. - Float glass is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and soda ash is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term. Attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in major production areas [23][25]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 41,676 tons, a net increase of 27 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.4492 million lots, a net decrease of 65,665 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3302 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 473,996 tons, a net decrease of 292 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.1432 million lots, a net decrease of 28,781 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong was 3280 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The real - estate data from January to February was still weak. The real - estate investment repair momentum was insufficient, and the terminal demand was likely to remain weak. The hot - rolled coil demand recovered quickly, the output increased slightly, and the inventory entered the depletion stage. The rebar supply and demand both increased, and the inventory decreased slightly, showing a neutral performance overall [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 807.50 yuan/ton, with a change of -0.43% (-3.50). The position changed by -8625 lots to 446,900 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 866,600 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 791 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 32.78 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 3.90% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - The overseas ore shipments in the latest period rebounded month - on - month. The shipments from Australia increased, those from Brazil remained stable, and the shipments from non - mainstream countries increased slightly. The near - end arrivals decreased. The daily average pig iron output increased by 69,500 tons to 2.2815 million tons. The blast furnaces that resumed production were mainly in Hebei after the end of production restrictions. The pig iron output is expected to continue to rise. The steel mill profitability rate continued to rise slightly. The port inventory decreased slightly from the high level, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory increased. Overall, the overseas supply of iron ore fluctuated at a high level and declined marginally. The BHP negotiation issue intensified the expectation of resource structural tension. The iron ore price fluctuated widely due to negotiation issues and overseas geopolitical conflicts [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 19, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) rose 0.81% intraday and closed at 6188 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 6190 yuan/ton, a premium of 2 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) rose 0.48% intraday and closed at 5824 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, a premium of 176 yuan/ton to the futures price [8]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon was still not ideal, but these factors were mostly priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon were good. The future market trends of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon were mainly influenced by the overall market sentiment, cost push from manganese ore, and supply contraction (or contraction expectations) of ferrosilicon. Attention should be paid to possible restrictive measures on manganese ore exports in South Africa and Gabon and the progress of the "dual - carbon" policy [10]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 19, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) initially rose due to the influence of crude oil sentiment but then fell due to the market environment, and finally rose 0.26% intraday and closed at 1159.5 yuan/ton. The spot price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1464.9 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1272.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 113 yuan/ton to the futures price; the spot price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1300 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1284 yuan/ton, a premium of 124.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 cleaned coal in Wubulang Jinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, with a conversion to the futures price of 1215 yuan/ton, a premium of 55.5 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) fell 0.03% intraday and closed at 1721.0 yuan/ton. The spot price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a conversion to the futures price of 1725.5 yuan/ton, a premium of 4.5 yuan/ton to the futures price; the spot price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a conversion to the futures price of 1710.5 yuan/ton, a discount of 10.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [12]. Strategy Viewpoints - Last week, coking coal prices benefited from the energy sentiment premium brought by the high - level crude oil due to the continuous perturbation of the Middle - East situation, and coke prices mainly followed the cost - side coking coal price fluctuations. In the short term, short - selling operations may not be appropriate before the Iran - US situation eases significantly. The inventory structure will show that downstream steel mills and coking plants actively reduce inventory, and upstream mines accumulate inventory, which will restrict the demand for coking coal and coke in the short term. In the medium - to - long term, coking coal prices are expected to be optimistic from June to October [14][15]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8285 yuan/ton, a change of -1.07% (-90). The weighted contract position increased by 14,461 lots to 378,927 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - blown 553 in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a basis of 815 yuan/ton for the main contract; the spot price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a basis of 515 yuan/ton for the main contract after conversion to the futures price [17]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 38,550 yuan/ton, a change of -3.88% (-1555). The weighted contract position decreased by 3390 lots to 50,915 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon was 44 yuan/kg, unchanged from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 42 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1 yuan/kg from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 43.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 1.75 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 5200 yuan/ton [19]. Strategy Viewpoints - Industrial silicon: The supply - demand pattern was weak on both sides. Due to the influence of overseas geopolitical conflicts and energy price fluctuations, the cost support was relatively solid. It is expected to fluctuate weakly under cost support [18]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals were weak, and the price pressure remained. The inventory of the silicon wafer link was slowly depleted, and the downstream enterprise operating rate recovery was less than expected. The polysilicon inventory pressure increased, and the downstream restocking was only for rigid demand. The market new orders were few, and the price declined. The futures price is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate in the short term [20]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1066 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 2.56% (-28). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1090 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 74.436 million cases, a decrease of 1.413 million cases (-1.86%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 4218 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 17,285 short positions [22]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1211 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 2.57% (-32). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1201 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. On March 19, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8538 million tons, a decrease of 77,900 tons (-1.86%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 890,700 tons, a decrease of 27,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 963,100 tons, a decrease of 50,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced 6678 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 25,634 short positions [24]. Strategy Viewpoints - Glass: The Middle - East geopolitical situation led to an increase in fuel costs, providing cost support. The market demand improved slightly, and the overall trading activity increased. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in major production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1030 - 1110 yuan/ton [23]. - Soda ash: The Middle - East geopolitical situation led to an increase in international oil prices, driving up the prices of coal - chemical and soda ash. However, as the situation stagnated, the upward momentum of coal - chemical weakened. The supply was relatively abundant, and the demand for raw material restocking by glass enterprises was still strong. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short term, and attention should be paid to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and the inventory changes in main production areas. The reference range for the main contract is 1180 - 1250 yuan/ton [25].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoint - No information provided 3. Summary by Directory - The report presents the scrap steel prices in different regions (East China, North China, Central China, South China, Northeast China, and Southwest China) from March 13th to March 19th, 2026, along with the环比 (comparative change) data [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply and demand in the market are recovering, with both production and demand increasing. However, the market has relatively weak demand expectations for this year and a pessimistic outlook on the fundamentals. The sharp increase in crude oil prices has pushed up costs, providing some support for futures prices [2]. - The market is gradually entering the consumption peak season. With the end of the Two Sessions and the arrival of the consumption peak season, iron ore demand is expected to increase. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised production costs on both the supply and demand sides. The relaxation of restrictions on the port clearance of Newman powder and the improvement in weather conditions have led to an increase in shipments and arrivals, and port inventories have reached record highs [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Thread and Hot Roll - **Market Situation**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, the prices of black - series commodities are running strongly in the short term. The total output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills increased this week, inventories decreased, and apparent demand continued to rebound. The market may have entered the seasonal de - stocking state [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: After the futures price broke through the resistance of the middle track of the Bollinger Band, it stepped back to the support of the lower moving average. It is more likely to maintain a strong and volatile trend in the short term [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [2]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,135 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous day and up 0.48% from last week; the closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,302 yuan/ton, down 0.24% from the previous day and up 0.82% from last week [2]. - **Production and Inventory**: The national rebar production of building material steel mills was 2.0333 million tons, an increase of 4.11% from last week; the hot - roll production was 3.0021 million tons, an increase of 1.68% from last week. The social inventory of five major varieties decreased by 0.86% from last week, and the steel - mill inventory decreased by 2.97% from last week [2]. 3.2. Iron Ore - **Market Situation**: The market is entering the consumption peak season. The output of five major steel products from 247 sample steel mills rebounded last week, but the daily average hot - metal output decreased by 64,000 tons to 2.212 million tons. With the end of the Two Sessions and the arrival of the consumption peak season, hot - metal output is expected to gradually recover. The sharp rise in crude oil prices has raised production costs on both the supply and demand sides. Shipments have gradually recovered to a high level, arrivals have increased, and port inventories have reached record highs [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The futures price rebounded rapidly, breaking through the important resistance level above, and may start a medium - term upward trend [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions lightly and adopt a strong - volatile mindset [4]. - **Data Details**: - **Prices**: The settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract was 807.5 yuan/dry ton, down 0.43% from the previous day and up 1.51% from last week; the settlement price of the SGX iron ore continuous - one contract was 107.15 US dollars/dry ton, down 0.15% from the previous day and up 3.29% from last week [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Australian iron ore shipments were 16.288 million tons, an increase of 4.93% from last week; Brazilian iron ore shipments were 5.226 million tons, an increase of 11.29% from last week. The northern six - port arrivals were 12.302 million tons, a decrease of 16.00% from last week; the average daily port clearance volume (45 ports in total) was 3.3233 million tons, an increase of 1.64% from last week [4][9]. 3.3. Industry News - The UK government announced that a 50% tariff will be imposed on imported steel exceeding the quota level, and the overall quota level will be reduced by 60% starting from July 1 [11]. - This week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous week. The daily average production of raw coal was 1.969 million tons, a 33,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the raw coal inventory was 5.367 million tons, a 75,000 - ton decrease from the previous week; the daily average production of clean coal was 798,000 tons, a 21,000 - ton increase from the previous week; the clean coal inventory was 2.541 million tons, a 236,000 - ton decrease from the previous week [11]. - As of the week of March 19, rebar production increased for three consecutive weeks, factory and social inventories changed from increasing to decreasing, and apparent demand increased for four consecutive weeks. Rebar production was 2.0333 million tons, an increase of 4.11% from last week; rebar apparent demand was 2.0809 million tons, an increase of 17.69% from last week [11]. - Due to the chaos in the global energy market caused by the Iranian war, coal prices have risen sharply. Indonesia will allow miners to increase coal production and is studying an export tax on coal [11]. - This week, the average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants across the country was 38 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was 57 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 97 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 11 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 87 yuan/ton [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weakening expectation of Fed rate cuts and the strong atmosphere of stagflation trading. Although steel inventories have peaked and declined, the expectation for the peak season is cautious, and there is still inventory pressure in the industrial chain. The fundamentals have limited highlights, and the upward driving force for the market is insufficient. However, due to intensified geopolitical risks, the prices of coking coal and coke fluctuate more in line with crude oil, there are continuous disturbances on the supply side of iron ore, the liquidity of some spot varieties is expected to tighten, and there is still an upward expectation for hot metal production, so the cost side still has support. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the disturbances from the geopolitical end and the iron ore supply side [1] - Overall, the expectation for the peak season is cautious, and the upward driving force from the real - end remains to be verified. Currently, there are still uncertainties in domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical disturbances. If geopolitical conflicts continue, price support will be strong; if they ease, prices may face a correction [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: In the short term, it is difficult to price the fundamentals of iron ore due to continuous supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, and it is expected to oscillate. In the medium to long term, the high - inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to ease, and the overall pattern remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the medium term [1] - **Scrap Steel**: In the short term, the recovery rhythm of short - process demand is slightly faster than that of supply, and the fundamentals support the price. Recently, the spot performance of finished products has been relatively good, and it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term. In the future, it is necessary to focus on the actual recovery progress of terminal demand [9] 3.2 Carbon Element - **Coke**: In the short term, both supply and demand of coke are increasing, the resumption speed of hot metal may be faster, and the cost - side price of the spot has increased, so the spot support for coke is strong. The market is expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [2] - **Coking Coal**: The resumption of coal mines is still restricted, but there is still real - world pressure on the fundamentals of coking coal due to high imports from Mongolia. It is less likely for the spot price to rise sharply. The current market price is more affected by domestic and overseas macro - expectations and geopolitical conflicts. If the geopolitical conflicts continue, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if they ease, it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [2] 3.3 Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The supply - demand relaxation state of the silicomanganese market is difficult to reverse, the upstream inventory remains high, there is resistance to cost downward transmission, and there is obvious selling - hedging pressure above the market. The current market valuation is still at a relatively high level, and the futures price is at risk of correction [2][16] - **Ferrosilicon**: Although the market inventory pressure is limited and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, the continuous repair of profits may accelerate the resumption progress of manufacturers, making the supply - demand relationship gradually turn to relaxation and suppressing the upward space of prices. The current market valuation of ferrosilicon is still much higher than the comprehensive cost, and the futures price is at risk of a high - level correction [2][17] 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expectations of supply disturbances, but the inventories of the mid - and downstream are moderately high. From the perspective of fundamentals, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If the production and sales cannot improve continuously, the high inventory will always suppress the price [2] - **Soda Ash**: The supply is stable at a high level in the short term, and the overall supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to mainly oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, the price center will continue to decline, and capacity reduction will be promoted [2] 3.5 Specific Product Analysis - **Steel**: The inventory has peaked and declined, but there are few highlights. The cost side still has some support, but the current steel inventory is high, and the expectation for the peak season is still cautious, so the upward driving force for prices is limited [7] - **Iron Ore**: The hot metal has recovered month - on - month, and port inventories have declined. In the short term, it is expected to oscillate; in the medium term, it is expected to oscillate weakly [7] - **Scrap Steel**: The daily consumption continues to rise, and the spot price has increased slightly. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term [9] - **Coke**: Both supply and demand have increased, and coke enterprises have slightly reduced their inventories. The market is expected to follow coking coal [10][11] - **Coking Coal**: Downstream procurement is strong, and coal mines continue to reduce their inventories. The spot price is less likely to rise sharply. If the geopolitical conflict continues, it may follow the strong performance of crude oil prices; if it eases, it is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner [12] - **Glass**: Supply cuts continue, and the upstream has slightly reduced its inventory. It is expected to operate in an oscillatory manner in the short term [13] - **Soda Ash**: Maintenance has affected production decline, and the supply - demand is still in surplus. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the supply - surplus pattern will intensify in the long term [15] - **Silicomanganese**: The cost is operating firmly, and the market is under pressure above. The market is in a supply - demand relaxation state, and the futures price is at risk of correction [16] - **Ferrosilicon**: There is insufficient supply - demand driving force, and the market valuation is high. The supply - demand relationship may turn to relaxation, and the futures price is at risk of a high - level correction [17] 3.6 Index Information - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity index was 2569.19, down 0.50%; the commodity 20 index was 2885.41, down 1.06%; the industrial products index was 2567.44, up 0.39% [101] - **Steel Industry Chain Index**: On March 19, 2026, the daily decline was 0.47%, the decline in the past 5 days was 0.58%, the increase in the past month was 3.85%, and the increase since the beginning of the year was 1.32% [103]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral, maintained [11] Core Insights - The recent surge in iron ore prices has opened up cost advantages for short-process steel production, while the medium-term direction towards carbon neutrality is clear, benefiting the graphite electrode sector [2][8] - The recovery pace of steel production post-holiday is slower than last year, with a notable increase in steel prices due to low inventory levels and rising iron ore costs [5][6] - The supply of graphite electrodes is expected to remain rigid in the short term, with a significant supply cycle of over six months, leading to potential supply-demand gaps if demand increases [2][8] Summary by Sections Iron Ore Price Dynamics - Iron ore prices have risen significantly due to restrictions on BHP Newman fines, which are crucial for Chinese buyers, leading to tightened liquidity and price increases [6][7] - The ongoing trade disputes between China and BHP may result in a short-term impact, but the long-term price increase of iron ore lacks fundamental support due to high port inventories and expected supply increases from major miners [8] Steel Production and Demand - The recovery in steel production is lagging behind last year, with a 3.65% increase in production week-on-week but a 4.41% decrease year-on-year [5] - The apparent consumption of major steel products has increased by 18.55% week-on-week but decreased by 10.58% year-on-year, indicating a mixed demand recovery [5] Graphite Electrode Market - Graphite electrodes are essential for short-process steel production, and their demand is expected to grow as steel prices rise and production costs are optimized [2][8] - The current inventory levels in the graphite electrode industry are low, and any increase in demand could lead to a supply shortage due to the lengthy production cycle [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The global financial and commodity markets are significantly affected by the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, with increased market volatility and uncertainty [1][2][3] - In the financial market, the stock market is under pressure, the bond market is in a state of entanglement, and the US dollar index is oscillating at a high level. In the commodity market, prices of energy and some agricultural products are rising, while prices of precious metals are falling [12][13][18] - Different investment strategies are recommended for various asset classes, such as low - position hedging for equity assets, short - term short - selling for bonds, and waiting for opportunities in other assets [24][28] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The Fed is considering reducing the capital adequacy ratio requirements for banks, and the European Central Bank maintains key interest rates. The Bank of England is ready to take action to curb inflation [11][12][13] - Precious metal prices have dropped significantly, but in the long - term, the upward logic of gold remains unchanged. In the short - term, gold prices are in a weak and volatile state [13][14] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Six countries jointly declare to ensure the safety of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Netanyahu says Israel will assist the US in reopening the strait, and Trump promises Israel will not attack Iranian oil and gas facilities [15][16][17] - Market risk appetite stabilizes, and the US dollar index oscillates at a high level [18][19] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Israel suspends air strikes on Iranian energy facilities, and Iran attacks Israeli refineries and US military bases [20][21] - The situation in the Middle East is still uncertain, and the US stock market is under pressure. It is expected to operate weakly in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21][22] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's general public budget revenue and expenditure in the first two months show certain growth, and the central bank is committed to maintaining the stability of the financial market [23][24] - Due to the escalating conflict between the US and Iran and the expectation of interest rate hikes, equity assets face short - term headwinds, and it is recommended to hedge with a low position [24][25] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 13 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.15 billion yuan on the day [26] - The bond market is in a state of entanglement. It is risky to chase the rise, and the cost - performance of short - selling in the short - term is slightly higher than that of buying [26][27][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The imported Mongolian coking coal market shows mixed price movements. The supply is increasing, and the demand is expected to improve [29] - The short - term fundamentals of coking coal are in a state of supply - demand balance. The price fluctuations are mainly affected by the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East [29][30] 2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's household appliance exports in February show growth, and the production of key steel enterprises in February decreases year - on - year. The inventory of five major steel products decreases slightly [31][32][33] - The inventory of steel products is decreasing, but the de - stocking amplitude in the future is not optimistic [33] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysia's palm oil exports from March 1 to 20 are expected to reach 1.17 million tons [34] - The upward trend of the oil market has paused. The market is cautious due to policy uncertainties, and it needs to wait for policy implementation and pay attention to oil prices [34][35] 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - China's corn imports from January to February increase by 207.9% year - on - year. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand has support [36] - The corn price is supported in the short - term, but the market has more long - short games. In the long - term, the price is expected to stabilize and rise [36][37] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US farmers plan to increase soybean planting in 2026, and the USDA weekly export sales report is lower than expected [38][39] - The soybean meal futures price is oscillating. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to the situation in the Middle East, Sino - US relations, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China [39][40][41] 2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The US imposes a 109.10% preliminary counter - subsidy tax on Russian palladium [42] - Platinum and palladium prices have dropped. The short - term strategy is to wait and see, and pay attention to long - platinum and short - palladium opportunities in the medium - term [43][44] 2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a discount, and the social inventory of lead ingots increases [45] - The lead price is affected by the macro environment. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [45][46] 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a discount, and the domestic zinc inventory decreases [47] - The zinc price is falling, but the fundamentals provide support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider buying on dips [48] 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - The US's net import dependence on key minerals reaches a 30 - year high, and China's refined copper production in the first two months increases by 9% year - on - year [49][51] - The copper price is expected to continue to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the positive spread between domestic and foreign markets [50][51] 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The auction price of Albemarle's lithium spodumene is CIF SC62018 dollars per ton, and the Zimbabwean government restricts the export of lithium ore [52][53] - The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand has support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a significant decline [55][56] 2.11 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreases [57] - Due to geopolitical risks, the price of fuel oil has an upward risk [57][58] 2.12 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rates of terminals in Jiangsu and Zhejiang remain stable or increase slightly. The PTA price shows different trends in different contracts [61] - The PTA price is in a short - term high - level oscillation, and there is an upward risk under the continuous geopolitical conflict [62][63] 2.13 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of styrene production enterprises decreases [64] - The absolute price of styrene has a high - volatility trend. It is recommended to trade with a light position and be vigilant against potential squeeze risks [65][66]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a shift in the steel industry towards "reduction development and stock optimization," emphasizing high-end, intelligent, and green development [2][4]. Core Insights - The steel industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, facing challenges such as demand structure changes and green low-carbon transformation, with policies aimed at capacity control, green transformation, and structural optimization [4][10]. - Supply-side policies focus on controlling crude steel output, prohibiting new capacity, and promoting the exit of inefficient production, while enhancing high-end capacity supply [5][6]. - Demand-side dynamics show a shift from traditional real estate and infrastructure investments to high-end manufacturing and green energy, leading to a structural change in steel demand [9][11]. Supply-side Policy Summary - Continuous implementation of crude steel output control and prohibition of illegal new capacity, with a focus on guiding capacity towards advantageous enterprises [5]. - Emphasis on quality upgrades and optimization of product structure, promoting technological innovation and digital transformation in the steel industry [5]. - Policies are set to enforce carbon emission controls, with a target to reduce carbon emissions per unit of GDP by 3.8% in 2026, pushing the industry towards green transformation [6][10]. Demand-side Policy Summary - In the real estate sector, demand is expected to stabilize but remain on a long-term downward trend [8]. - Infrastructure projects provide rigid support for steel demand, with traditional construction steel demand slowing while high-end steel demand is expected to grow [8][9]. - The manufacturing sector is projected to become a new engine for demand, benefiting from investments in high-end manufacturing and equipment updates [9][11]. Overall Industry Outlook - The steel industry is transitioning from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvement, with a notable trend of credit differentiation [10][11]. - Large modern steel enterprises are expected to strengthen their competitive position due to advantages in technology, capital, and industry chain collaboration, while smaller enterprises face increased credit risk [11].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread steel: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Iron ore: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coke: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Coking coal: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Silicomanganese: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★★★, indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] Core View - The steel market is affected by factors such as demand recovery, production restrictions, and cost support, with short - term fluctuations and the need to focus on the Iranian situation and peak - season demand [2] - The iron ore market has an expected marginal improvement in fundamentals but an overall loose supply pattern, with the market expected to fluctuate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by geopolitical conflicts and have the characteristic of prices being prone to rise and hard to fall, with attention needed on relevant geopolitical news [4][6] - The silicomanganese market is affected by international conflicts on the cost side, while demand is affected by the decline in pig iron production [7] - The ferrosilicon market has a certain demand resilience, with supply and inventory changes, and attention needed on geopolitical news [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Today's steel futures market was weakly volatile. This week, the apparent demand for thread steel continued to warm up, production increased synchronously, and inventory began to decline after reaching a turning point. The demand for hot - rolled coil gradually improved, production increased, and inventory declined from a high level, but pressure still needed to be alleviated. During the conference, blast furnace production was restricted, and pig iron production dropped significantly. After the conference, production would resume quickly, but poor steel mill profits still restricted the recovery space. From January - February data, the decline in real estate investment narrowed, and the investment growth rates of infrastructure and manufacturing increased. Domestic demand improved marginally, but its sustainability needed to be observed. Steel exports declined from a high level. Macro sentiment weakened, putting downward pressure on the futures market, but cost support was still strong under inflation expectations. In the short term, there would still be fluctuations [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market weakened today. On the supply side, the global shipping volume increased month - on - month and was stronger than the same period last year. The domestic arrival volume declined in stages, and port inventory would gradually enter the seasonal destocking stage. On the demand side, with the arrival of the "Golden March and Silver April", terminal demand continued to warm up. Steel mills had production profits, and production resumption might be obvious after the end of phased production restrictions. External geopolitical conflicts were still ongoing, and the rise in oil prices provided phased cost support. Attention should be paid to changes in the overall market trend. The fundamentals of iron ore had an expected marginal improvement, but the overall loose supply pattern was difficult to change, and the futures market was expected to fluctuate [3] Coke - The intra - day price of coke rose first and then fell. Coking profits were average, and daily production remained almost unchanged. Coke inventory changed little, and the purchasing willingness of traders improved slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and downstream pig iron production continued to decline significantly. The profit level of steel improved slightly. The coke futures market was at a premium, and the coking coal futures market was at a premium to Mongolian coal. The Mongolian coal customs clearance data remained at a high level, but the suppression effect was slightly weak. Geopolitical conflicts might make coking coal prices prone to rise and hard to fall, and attention should be paid to relevant geopolitical news [4] Coking Coal - The intra - day price of coking coal rose first and then fell. Yesterday, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 1,230 vehicles. The resumption of coal mine work was good, and the weekly production level continued to rise slightly. The spot auction transactions within the week were good, and the transaction price increased. This was mainly due to market concerns about energy rather than the abundant spot supply. Terminal inventory increased slightly, and there were not many restocking actions. The total coking coal inventory decreased slightly, and the production - end inventory decreased slightly. Overall, the supply of carbon elements was abundant, and downstream pig iron production continued to decline significantly. The profit level of steel improved slightly. The coke futures market was at a premium, and the coking coal futures market was at a premium to Mongolian coal. The Mongolian coal customs clearance data remained at a high level, but the suppression effect was slightly weak. Geopolitical conflicts might make coking coal prices prone to rise and hard to fall, and attention should be paid to relevant geopolitical news [6] Silicomanganese - The intra - day price of silicomanganese fluctuated mainly. International conflicts had a positive impact on crude oil prices, which in turn affected the ocean freight of manganese ore, being relatively beneficial to the cost side of silicomanganese. The spot transaction price of manganese ore continued to rise, the manganese ore port inventory decreased slightly, and the mine - end shipping increased month - on - month. However, the mine cost had increased compared with previous years, and the price - concession space might be relatively limited. On the demand side, pig iron production continued to decline significantly. The weekly production of silicomanganese increased slightly, and the silicomanganese inventory increased slightly. Attention should be paid to relevant geopolitical news [7] Ferrosilicon - The intra - day price of ferrosilicon fluctuated mainly. As the spot price followed the rise of the futures price, the Inner Mongolia and Ningxia production areas in the main production areas turned from losses to profits, and the loss amplitude in other production areas decreased. On the demand side, pig iron production remained at the off - season level. The export demand remained above 30,000 tons, with little marginal impact. The metal magnesium production remained at a high level, and the secondary demand was relatively stable. The overall demand still had resilience. The weekly supply of ferrosilicon decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. Attention should be paid to relevant geopolitical news [8]

Group 1: Market Information - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian rebar is 3210 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye is 3170 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil is 3290 yuan (-), and Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil is 3220 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - Core view: The black metal market oscillated weakly today, and steel prices declined. This week, the output of the five major steel products continued to increase, with the growth rate of rebar output slowing down and hot-rolled coil turning to production increase. It is expected that the molten iron output will rebound this week. The resumption of work at downstream construction sites and the availability of funds continued to improve this week, leading to an increase in the apparent demand for building materials and a reduction in rebar inventory. However, the apparent demand is still declining year-on-year, and the recovery speed has slowed down. Recently, the export orders have been good, resulting in an improvement in the supply and demand of hot-rolled coils and an accelerated reduction in inventory, but the overall inventory level is still high, and there is pressure on supply and demand. However, the conflict between the US and Iran has intensified recently, and energy prices and shipping freight rates have continued to rise. If the friction intensifies in the future, it may drive up the raw material cost of steel. Recently, there has been a rumor that the import of Newman powder is blocked, and the iron ore price is supported. Therefore, the short-term steel price will maintain an oscillating and slightly stronger trend affected by overseas and raw materials. In the future, attention still needs to be paid to the molten iron production situation, downstream demand performance, and overseas geopolitical frictions [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral: Follow overseas sentiment and maintain an oscillating trend [6] - Arbitrage: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels, and continue to hold the short position of the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [7] Group 4: Important Information - National Bureau of Statistics data shows that from January to February 2026, China's air conditioner output was 40.118 million units, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. The national refrigerator output was 16.643 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The national washing machine output was 18.579 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%. The national color TV output was 24.678 million units, a year-on-year increase of 2.3% [8] - This week, the small-sample output of rebar was 2.0333 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 80,300 tons. The apparent demand was estimated to be 2.0809 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of 15.2% in the lunar calendar), a month-on-month increase of 312,800 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 34,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 13,400 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 47,600 tons. The output of hot-rolled coils this week was 3.0021 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 49,500 tons. The apparent demand was estimated to be 3.1051 million tons (a year-on-year decrease of 3.67% in the lunar calendar), a month-on-month increase of 151,500 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory decreased by 43,200 tons, and the social inventory decreased by 59,800 tons, with a total inventory decrease of 103,000 tons [8][9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The attachments include various charts such as the basis of rebar and hot-rolled coil contracts, price spreads, and profit margins [14][16][19]