仓廪实，民心安。国家统计局近日发布的数据显示，2025年全国夏粮产量2994.8亿斤，总体保持稳定。 国家统计局农村司副司长魏锋华在解读数据时表示，2025年我国夏粮实现稳产丰收，为稳定全年粮食生 产奠定了坚实基础，为应对复杂严峻的国际形势、推动经济持续回升向好提供了有力支撑。 粮食丰收的背后，与金融机构从农田建设、粮食收购等全链条支持分不开。特别是在夏粮主产区的中国 人民银行分支机构落实总行政策，引导辖内金融机构优化金融服务，积极对接融资需求，为夏粮稳产丰 收注入金融动能。 保障颗粒归仓 今年以来，各地金融机构以有力的举措、优质的服务，持续为夏粮收购工作提供坚实的金融保障，助力 粮食收购工作顺利进行，确保颗粒归仓。 在河南，中国人民银行河南省分行今年以来累计投放支农支小再贷款377.4亿元，降低金融机构资金成 本，引导其向夏粮收购等领域投放优惠利率贷款，降低新型农业经营主体信贷资金成本。 在河北，中国人民银行河北省分行组织金融机构深入摸排、科学测算。农业发展银行河北省分行提前开 展企业评级授信调查工作，今年夏收以来，已投放小麦收购贷款44.54亿元，支持收购小麦32.3亿斤， 以"钱等粮"推动"粮归仓"。 ...

美联储迎来了一位"不速之客"。 这个人，不是别人，而是现任总统特朗普。这可是时隔多年，在位总统第一次主动跑到美联储"联络感情"。 要知道，因为特殊国情，联邦政府和美联储之间是相互独立的。井水不犯河水！ 到底什么事情，值得让七十九岁的总统，顶着大太阳，带着一大批随从和亲信，亲自跑到美联储"嘘寒问暖"？ 一个字，钱！ 作为一个国家的"中央银行"，美联储可以说是全国最有钱的地方。一百年才迎来一次大修，不算过分吧？ 马上，这位年近八十的总统，就带着一大批官员，风尘仆仆地"杀"到了美联储建设现场。 迎接他的是跟他相爱相杀的美联储主席。 但是，就有人将美联储告上了法庭。这位官员就说了，你美联储报上来的预算说翻修大概要花十九亿美元，但是房子 还没修好，现在就花费了二十五亿美元。这花的可都是政府的真金白银啊！ 美联储大楼（资料图） 这位官员还说了，你美联储说的是翻新，但是你们报上来的装修方案显示，你们要装的都是豪华家具、豪华办公用 品、豪华建材。 明知道现在政府正在严控开支，你们这是往枪口上撞啊！ 值得玩味的是，这位官员还是特朗普所在的共和党党羽。所以，这话立马传到了特朗普耳边。 美联储主席（资料图） 一见面，就有好事的记者 ...

Group 1 - The copper industry in Yingtan, Jiangxi Province, is referred to as the "World Copper Capital," with an annual output value exceeding 100 billion yuan, accounting for one-tenth of the national copper processing total, and housing over 500 upstream and downstream enterprises [1] - Postal Savings Bank of China Jiangxi Branch has tailored diversified financial service solutions for the copper industry, focusing on key technology research and green upgrades, thus becoming a significant force in promoting industrial development [1][5] Group 2 - Jiangxi Xinboli Technology Co., Ltd. is a leader in the production of high-end lithium battery copper foil, with a team of over 30 people led by four full-time doctors, showcasing strong technological capabilities [2] - The company has established a customer base that includes several leading domestic new energy enterprises, enhancing its influence in the industry [2] - Xinboli Technology requires stable long-term funding support for its technology research and capacity expansion, with annual R&D investments amounting to several million yuan [2] Group 3 - In 2021, Xinboli Technology faced funding challenges due to insufficient collateral, but Postal Savings Bank provided a 5 million yuan credit loan based on the founder's credit and development potential, facilitating the purchase of initial equipment [3] - To date, the bank has provided over 37.5 million yuan in loans to Xinboli Technology, establishing a solid financial foundation for the company's growth [3] Group 4 - Postal Savings Bank aims to be a "think tank" for enterprise development, offering customized financial solutions based on the specific needs of different stages of the business [4] - The bank's comprehensive financial services have helped Xinboli Technology reduce financial costs and improve operational efficiency, contributing to its rapid development [4] Group 5 - The deep integration of finance and the real economy is continuously activating new momentum for the upgrade of the "World Copper Capital" industrial chain [5] - Postal Savings Bank has provided over 10 billion yuan in credit support to the Yingtan copper industry, covering more than 100 enterprises across the industrial chain [5][6] - The bank is committed to supporting key technology research, green transformation, and intelligent manufacturing, fostering a collaborative development model among large, medium, and small enterprises [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads. Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term, and only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrowing [2][5]. - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by about 4BP [2][11]. - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP [2][17]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual (two - type) bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads - Domestic commodity prices rise sharply due to the expected "anti - involution" policy, and the A - share market hits a new high this year. The adjustment of interest - rate bonds intensifies, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds rising by 4BP, 8BP, and 10BP respectively, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds rising by 9BP [5]. - Some institutional liabilities are affected, leading to large - scale selling of credit bonds and a significant rise in yields. The yields of 1Y credit bonds of all grades rise by 10 - 11BP; the yields of 3Y AA and above - grade credit bonds rise by 10 - 11BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 7BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 11BP, and those of other grades rise by 6 - 8BP; the yields of 7Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 5 - 6BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 3BP; the yields of 10Y AA + and above - grade bonds rise by 10 - 12BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 8BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term. Only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrow. Rating spreads and term spreads show obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Spreads of all grades of urban investment bonds rise by about 4BP - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by 4BP. For AAA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Hainan rising by 5BP, and Tianjin and Liaoning rising by 2BP; for AA + - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Jilin rising by 5BP, Yunnan and Tianjin rising by 2BP, and Qinghai remaining flat; for AA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 2 - 5BP, with Gansu and Henan rising by 6BP, Hebei rising by 1BP, and Guizhou falling by 1BP [2][11]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP. The spreads of Longfor rise by 3BP, those of Midea Real Estate rise by 4BP, those of CIFI rise by 160BP, those of Gemdale rise by 1BP, and those of Vanke fall by 4BP. Spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades rise by 4BP respectively; spreads of chemical bonds of all grades rise by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry rise by 6BP, those of HBIS Group rise by 5BP, and those of Jinkong Coal Industry rise by 4BP [2][17]. 4. Spreads of 3 - to 5 - year two - type bonds rise significantly - This week, the yields of two - type bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Specifically, the yields of 1Y secondary capital bonds of all grades rise by 7 - 8BP, and spreads rise by 2 - 3BP; the yields of 1Y perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 9BP, and spreads rise by 5BP. The yields of 3Y two - type bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 4 - 6BP. The yield of 5Y AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rises by 14BP, the yields of other grades rise by 17BP, and spreads rise by 7BP; the yields of perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 3 - 5BP [2][27][29]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly - This week, the excess spreads of AAA - grade industrial perpetual bonds remain flat. The spreads of 3Y industrial bonds remain at 3.82BP, at the 1.69% quantile since 2015, and the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds remain at 7.65BP, at the 4.55% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.12BP to 3.63BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.41BP to 9.80BP, at the 9.10% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank two - type spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - Industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads = individual bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - yield to maturity of same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by arithmetic mean method [38]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term bank ordinary bonds; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term medium - term notes [38]. - Both industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and guarantee bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [38].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the enthusiasm for savings among the public is increasing due to economic uncertainties and rising investment risks, leading to a significant increase in household deposits [1] - In the first half of 2025, household deposits increased by 10.77 trillion yuan, averaging 1.79 trillion yuan in new deposits each month [1] - The continuous decline in deposit interest rates is expected, with the three-year deposit rate dropping from 3.05% to 1.55%, resulting in a decrease of 1,500 yuan in annual interest for a 100,000 yuan deposit [5] Group 2 - The reasons for the decline in deposit interest rates include the central bank's intention to encourage spending and investment, the synchronization of loan interest rate reductions, and the expansion of the interest rate spread for banks [5] - Investors are advised to adopt a laddered deposit strategy to balance interest income and liquidity, while aggressive investors should diversify their investments across various low-risk and higher-risk assets [8] - The increasing number of bankruptcies and dissolutions among small and medium-sized banks, with 195 banks announcing dissolution in 2024, raises concerns about the stability of these institutions [10] Group 3 - The real estate market is facing significant bubbles, with price-to-income ratios in first-tier cities reaching 40, indicating a potential correction in housing prices [12] - The stock market is also at risk of valuation corrections, with new stock issuance maintaining high price-to-earnings ratios, leading to potential declines in stock prices [12][13] - Investors with fixed-term deposits should prepare for the possibility of asset bubbles bursting in both real estate and stock markets [13]

一旦美联储开启降息通道，新一轮美元潮汐将正式上演。当美国利率降低，美元资本在本土的吸引力减 弱，它们便会迫不及待地流向全球，为各国市场带来大量资金。股市将迎来一波牛市行情，美股纳斯达 克指数近期再创历史新高，日本日经225指数、中国港股、A股、印度股市均持续走强，这便是资本提 前布局的信号。企业的融资变得更加容易，投资活动也会愈发活跃，推动实体经济的发展。房地产市场 也会在这股资金潮的推动下迎来繁荣，房价可能会出现大幅上涨。 但这仅仅是潮汐的涨潮阶段，当美国经济在降息的刺激下逐渐企稳向好，加息周期也将随之而来。那 时，美元资本会毫不犹豫地从各国市场抽身，回流美国。曾经被推高的资产价格将如泡沫般破裂，股市 暴跌，企业融资困难，资金链断裂风险大增，大量企业可能面临破产倒闭。房地产市场也会陷入寒冬， 房价暴跌，许多购房者将面临资产缩水的困境。那些依赖外资的新兴市场国家，更是会遭受沉重打击， 货币贬值、债务违约、金融市场动荡等问题将接踵而至，经济陷入衰退的泥沼。 面对这全新的美元潮汐，中国早已未雨绸缪，前瞻性地做出了一系列布局。在货币政策方面，中国人民 银行紧盯美联储且先于其行动。今年5月率先降准降息，这一举措既有效 ...

2025 年 7 月 26 日 总量研究 信用债发行环比增加，各行业信用利差整体上行 ——信用债周度观察（20250721-20250725） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 7 月 21 日至 7 月 25 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 414 只， 发行规模总计 5928.29 亿元，环比增加 47.80%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 202 只，发行规模达 2192.81 亿元，环比 增加 24.66%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 36.99%；城投债共发行 166 只， 发行规模达 1096.27 亿元，环比增加 2.90%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 18.49%；金融债共发行 46 只，发行规模达 2639.21 亿元，环比增加 122.44%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 44.52%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 3.35 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 3.38 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.75 年、金融债平均发行期限为 1.66 年。 ...

你有没有发现，美国的利息又一次没有降？在这么高的利率下，很多企业和投资者早已按捺不住，开始转移资产，纷纷抢滩美国。原本，降息就是为了刺激 经济增长，可美联储硬生生顶住了压力，不降反升。这背后的深层次原因，是什么让美联储选择这么做？ 先从大背景看，美联储的利率政策本身并不是一场单纯的经济调整，而是一种深刻的全球博弈。美国的利率水平，尤其是在2023年持续上升的情况下，吸引 了大量外资流入，尤其是来自中国、欧洲等地区的资本。这并非因为美国经济本身的韧性有多强，而是全球资本在面对不确定性时的避风港效应。美联储无 疑是在通过高利率吸引资本，为美国经济提供资金流动，同时借此进行全球资源的收割。 但这样的局面，也并非没有弊端。高利率带来的不仅仅是资金流入，更多的是资金成本的上升。美国国内的企业，尤其是中小型企业，将面临巨大的资金压 力。在这种高息环境下，不少企业不得不调整扩张计划，或者选择削减成本。而对于普通消费者来说，高利率意味着贷款成本增加，房贷、车贷、信用卡利 息的负担将进一步加重，这对于美国本土的消费市场无疑是一种沉重的打击。 但美联储并没有表现出降息的迹象，相反，还表现得很硬气。这背后不单单是对抗通胀那么简单， ...

新华财经济南7月26日电（记者贾云鹏）记者从中国人民银行山东省分行获悉，截至今年5月末，山东省 养老产业贷款余额139.4亿元，贷款余额同比增长21.4%，高于全部贷款增速12个百分点，贷款平均利率 3.93%，同比下降54BP，呈现"量增、价降"的态势。 中国人民银行山东省分行信贷政策管理处副处长刘妍说，山东建立起养老金融工作协调机制，完善养老 金融政策体系，10部门联合印发《山东省金融服务养老事业和银发经济工作方案》，推动全省金融机构 成立养老金融事业部2个，养老金融样板示范行13家，养老金融特色网点、特色分支行30家。 为促进银企精准对接，中国人民银行山东省分行会同发改、工信、民政、卫健等部门建立山东养老产业 项目库，通过"山东省银企对接服务平台"推送给金融机构，督促做好融资支持；组织金融机构分批分类 深入养老服务机构"一对一""多对一"走访，全面摸清养老服务领域金融需求。活动开展以来，各地市人 民银行组织金融机构累计走访对接企业1765个，向115家企业发放贷款，金额18.42亿元。 山东省投融资担保集团还发挥政府性融资担保作用，推出"鲁担养老服务贷"，为全省《养老产业统计分 类（2020）》中的小微 ...

固定收益 | 固定收益定期 流动性跟踪 证券研究报告 2025 年 07 月 26 日 资金"过山车"后，跨月压力如何？ 1、资金"过山车"后，跨月压力如何？ 本周资金面再起波澜，一方面是流动性需求仍较大，MLF 回笼、逆回购到 期规模较大、存单到期规模超万亿元、国债发行等，另一方面，上半周央 行连日回笼税期投放流动性，供需格局的边际变化或一定程度放大资金需 求，资金面从宽松逐渐转向中性偏紧状态，隔夜资金利率再度上台阶，运 行于 6 月以来的相对高位，大行净融出先升后降，后半周存单一二级价格 小幅上行。 资金面超预期收敛的背后或主要有两点因素，其一，上半周央行连日净回 笼或一定程度增加放大资金需求；其二，股市和部分商品上涨，或对债市 资金形成分流。 下周跨月将至，资金面压力或会再起波澜吗？首先，央行适时呵护的态度 仍在，资金面持续收紧的可能性相对偏低。其次，下周逆回购到期规模较 大，但政府债发行规模、存单到期规模均较本周边际回落，资金面压力边 际缓释，叠加月末财政支出可能提速，或对银行间流动性形成一定补充。 在此基础上，资金价格或呈现渐近修复的态势，但考虑到跨月时点，幅度 或也相对有限，而央行如何应对公开市场 ...