1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Amid the "asset shortage" of credit bonds, with interest rates continuously fluctuating at low levels and increasing difficulty in capital gain speculation, it is advisable to focus on the stable income value of high - coupon assets [4][48] - The optimization of the science and innovation bond mechanism by the Dealer Association marks the transition of inter - bank market science and innovation bonds from pilot exploration to mature development, facilitating the precise flow of market funds into hard - tech sectors and promoting the in - depth integration of technology, capital, and industry [13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 This Week's Credit Hot Events - On March 2, 2026, the National Association of Financial Market Institutional Investors issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing the Mechanism of Science and Technology Innovation Bonds", which expands the scope of supported science and technology innovation - related titles, clarifies the standards for issuing science and technology innovation bonds based on the number of patents, manages the use of raised funds by science - and - technology enterprises in a hierarchical and classified manner, guides enterprises to issue medium - and long - term science and technology innovation bonds, enhances the convenience for equity investment institutions to issue such bonds, controls the risk of local government implicit debt, supports the development of "hard - tech" enterprises, encourages the improvement of the rating method system for the science and technology innovation industry, explores the introduction of information disclosure and liability agreement clauses based on agreements, and promotes the improvement of the investment - end mechanism [9][10][11] 3.2 Primary Market - This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 124.3 billion yuan, a 165.8 billion - yuan increase from last week. The net financing of asset - backed securities was - 3.7 billion yuan, a 46.9 billion - yuan increase from last week [14] - By product type, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 54.7 billion yuan, an increase of 78 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 63.8 billion yuan, an increase of 63.9 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 5.9 billion yuan, an increase of 23.9 billion yuan [14] - In terms of issuance and redemption quantity, the issuance quantity of urban investment bonds increased by 117, and the redemption quantity increased by 9; the issuance quantity of industrial bonds increased by 99, and the redemption quantity increased by 17; the issuance quantity of financial bonds increased by 14, and the redemption quantity increased by 1 [17] 3.3 Secondary Market 3.3.1 Transaction Situation - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 511.6 billion yuan compared with last week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 256.8 billion yuan, an increase of 116 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 364.9 billion yuan, an increase of 175.2 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 474.9 billion yuan, an increase of 220.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 16.2 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7 billion yuan [19] - The turnover rate of credit bonds increased overall compared with last week. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.64%, a 0.74 - percentage - point increase; that of industrial bonds was 1.84%, a 0.88 - percentage - point increase; that of financial bonds was 3.03%, a 1.41 - percentage - point increase; and that of asset - backed securities was 0.43%, a 0.23 - percentage - point increase [19] 3.3.2 Yield - The yields of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities decreased to varying degrees compared with last week, with the 10 - year yield showing a larger decline. For example, the 1 - year AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bond yields decreased by 3BP each; the 5 - year AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bond yields decreased by 4BP, 3BP, and 3BP respectively; and the 10 - year AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bond yields decreased by 6BP, 6BP, and 5BP respectively [24] - Taking the 5 - year AA + of each product type as an example, the yields of different products decreased to varying degrees. The yields of privately - issued industrial bonds and perpetual industrial bonds decreased by 3BP each; the yield of 5 - year AA + urban investment bonds decreased by 4BP; the yields of commercial bank ordinary bonds and secondary capital bonds decreased by 2BP and 1BP respectively; and the yield of 5 - year AA + asset - backed securities decreased by 3BP [26] 3.3.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, the credit spreads of the AA + electronics and textile and apparel industries widened significantly compared with last week, while the credit spreads of other industries and ratings fluctuated within 5BP. Specifically, the credit spreads of the AA + electronics and textile and apparel industries widened by 20BP and 13BP respectively [31] - For urban investment bonds, the short - term credit spreads within 3 years widened slightly, while the medium - and long - term credit spreads over 3 years compressed slightly. Regionally, most regions' urban investment spreads widened by no more than 6BP, with a few regions showing slight compression [35][37] - For industrial bonds, the long - term credit spreads compressed significantly, while the credit spreads of other maturities fluctuated within 3BP compared with last week [41] - For bank capital bonds, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds with different maturities fluctuated within 3BP compared with last week [44] 3.4 This Week's Bond Market Public Opinions - The implied ratings of "Xiaojingkaiyou" issued by Hangzhou Xiaoshan Economic and Technological Development Zone State - owned Assets Management Co., Ltd. and "25 Jingkaiyou" issued by Zhejiang Hangzhou Bay Information Port High - tech Construction and Development Co., Ltd. were downgraded [45] 3.5 Investment Suggestions - In the context of the "asset shortage" of credit bonds, it is recommended to focus on the stable income value of high - coupon assets. For urban investment bonds, pay attention to entities such as Tianjin Urban Construction, Hubei Lianfa, etc. For industrial bonds, consider entities like Jinneng Electric Power and Yunnan Energy. For bank secondary capital bonds, focus on banks such as China Guangfa Bank and China Minsheng Bank. For other financial bonds, pay attention to entities such as Ping An Life Insurance and Cinda Asset Management [48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Due to the continuous geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, international crude oil prices have soared again. The Strait of Hormuz, the world's most crucial oil chokepoint, has almost come to a standstill due to the US - Iran conflict, leading to a continuous rise in international oil prices. WTI and Brent crude oil have recorded their largest weekly increases since 1983 and 1991 respectively [1][11]. - A 10% increase in oil prices may push up the PPI by about 0.4 percentage points. Crude oil, as a basic production material, is widely used in the upstream, mid - stream, and downstream industrial chains. The relevant industries account for about 12.4% of the PPI [1][12]. - The actual impact of oil prices on China's inflation depends on how the conflict develops. Bloomberg Economics has made three scenario analyses: cease - fire (medium - high probability), continuous war (medium - high probability), and regime change in Iran (low probability). Different scenarios will have different impacts on China's PPI [2][18]. - The bond market may remain volatile. It is recommended to moderately extend the duration when there are adjustments. The bond supply shock trading may come to an end. The probability of interest rate decline is higher from the Two Sessions to the Politburo meeting in April. However, after the 10 - year Treasury bond rate breaks below 1.80%, the market is cautious, waiting for the increase in interest rate cut expectations [2][21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review Summary and Bond Market Outlook - This week, the bond market successively traded risk appetite and expectations of the Two Sessions. Yields remained volatile overall, with short - end performance stronger than long - end. The yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury bonds both rose by 1bp [10]. - International oil prices soared due to the Middle East geopolitical conflicts. As of Friday's close, WTI crude oil futures rose by more than 36% this week, and Brent crude oil futures rose by about 29% [11]. 3.2 Bond Market Review 3.2.1 Funding Situation - The central bank had a net withdrawal of funds, and funding rates declined. From March 2nd to March 6th, the central bank's open - market net withdrawal was 136.34 billion yuan. R007 and DR007 decreased by 2bp and 9bp respectively compared with February 28th [22][24]. 3.2.2 Secondary Market Trends - Yields remained volatile this week, with short - end performance being strong. Except for 10Y and 30Y, the yields of other key - term Treasury bonds declined. Except for the 50Y - 30Y spread, other key - term Treasury bond spreads widened [31]. 3.2.3 Bond Market Sentiment - As of March 6th, the weekly turnover rate of 30Y Treasury bonds rebounded to 31%, the 50Y - 30Y Treasury bond spread narrowed by 2bp compared with February 28th, and the 30Y - 10Y Treasury bond spread widened by 0.3bp to 50bp. The inter - bank leverage ratio rose to 107.7%, and the median duration of medium - and long - term pure bond funds increased by 0.03 years to 2.56 years. The implied tax rate of 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed [35][39]. 3.2.4 Bond Supply - This week, the net financing of interest - rate bonds decreased. The net financing of Treasury bonds changed from net financing to net repayment, the net financing of local government bonds increased, and the net repayment of policy - financial bonds decreased. Next week, the issuance scale of Treasury bonds will increase, while the issuance scale of local government bonds will decrease. This week, inter - bank certificates of deposit changed from net repayment to net financing, and the average issuance rate continued to decline [49][53]. 3.3 Economic Data - In February, the manufacturing PMI declined seasonally, and the export sector was under pressure. Since March, travel has been stronger than the Spring Festival seasonality, and industrial production has improved marginally. Real - estate transactions, consumption, export, and industrial production indicators have shown different trends [57]. 3.4 Overseas Bond Market - The US non - farm payrolls data in February was disappointing. The 2Y and 10Y US Treasury bond rates both rose by 18bp. The 10Y - 2Y US Treasury bond spread remained flat at 59bp. European bond markets declined, the Chinese bond market rose, and the South Korean bond market declined. Emerging - market bond markets also declined [65][66]. 3.5 Major Asset Classes - The CSI 300 index adjusted this week. The Nanhua Crude Oil Index rose significantly by 31%, the US dollar index rose, while the Nanhua Live Pig Index and Shanghai Copper declined. The performance of major asset classes this week was: crude oil > US dollar > rebar > Chinese bonds > Shanghai gold > Chinese - funded US dollar bonds > CSI 300 > convertible bonds > Shanghai copper > live pigs > CSI 1000 [70]. 3.6 Bond Market Calendar - The calendar from March 9th to March 13th, 2026, includes information on liquidity投放 and maturity, government bond supply, fundamental data, and important domestic and international events [76].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing technology financial services to support innovation and drive economic growth, particularly in the context of China's 14th Five-Year Plan and the upcoming 15th Five-Year Plan [1] Policy Guidance - Technology finance is identified as a key driver for industrial upgrading and achieving high-level technological self-reliance [2] - The People's Bank of China has mandated the construction of a multi-tiered financial service system to support key areas such as domestic demand, technological innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [2] - By the end of Q4 2025, 275,000 technology SMEs received loan support, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [2] Financial Support Mechanisms - A series of policies have been implemented since 2025 to guide long-term credit funds towards technology innovation, significantly boosting new productivity [3] - The implementation plan for high-quality development in technology finance aims to create a financial service system that aligns with technological innovation [3] - The People's Bank of China has reduced various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, increasing the re-lending quota for technology innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan, totaling 1.2 trillion yuan [4] Challenges and Solutions - Despite policy advancements, technology enterprises still face financing challenges, necessitating innovative financial products and services [6] - Financial institutions are encouraged to move beyond traditional collateral requirements and assess companies based on their operational strengths and market potential [7] - Collaborative efforts between banks and enterprises are being established to facilitate financing through intellectual property pledges and other innovative mechanisms [8] Introduction of Patient Capital - The Financial Regulatory Authority has highlighted the need to cultivate patient capital to support the development of new productivity [9] - Financial Asset Investment Companies (AICs) are emerging as a significant source of patient capital, providing long-term funding solutions for technology innovation [9] - The establishment of AICs by major banks is expected to enhance the financial support for technology enterprises, particularly in the context of long-term investments [10]

Macro and Financial - The People's Bank of China will flexibly and efficiently use various monetary policy tools, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, to support capital markets [2][9] - The government work report sets a target for economic growth at 4.5%-5% for the year, with a focus on urban unemployment around 5.5% and a consumer price increase of about 2% [4][5] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines 20 major indicators, including 8 binding indicators related to green and low-carbon development [7] Capital Market - The Chairman of the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) emphasized the need to improve the "Chinese-style market stabilization mechanism" and outlined five key areas for enhancement during the "14th Five-Year Plan" [15][16] - The CSRC aims to strengthen the market's resilience and stability, improve the quality of listed companies, and enhance investor protection [16][17] - The central government will support the Central Huijin Investment Company in playing a role similar to a "stabilization fund" to enhance market stability [17][19] Business and Industry - The 2026 Hurun Global Rich List shows that the number of billionaires has surpassed 4,000 for the first time, with China leading at 1,110 billionaires [26] - OpenAI launched its new flagship model GPT-5.4, which supports native computer operations and is considered the most capable model to date [29][30] - The first Shanghai Commercial Space Conference will be held from March 12 to 14, showcasing commercial launch services and satellite technologies [32][33]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing financial services for technology innovation to support the development of new productive forces in China, particularly through policy guidance and financial support mechanisms [2][4]. Policy Guidance - Technology finance is identified as a key driver for industrial upgrading and achieving high-level technological self-reliance [2]. - The People's Bank of China has called for a multi-tiered financial service system to support key areas such as domestic demand, technology innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [2]. - By the end of Q4 2025, 275,000 technology-based SMEs received loan support, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Financial Support Mechanisms - A series of policies have been implemented since 2025 to guide medium- and long-term credit funds towards technology innovation, significantly boosting the development of new productive forces [3]. - The total loan balance for technology-based SMEs reached 3.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.8%, outpacing the growth of all loans by 13.6 percentage points [2]. Challenges and Innovations - Despite policy advancements, technology enterprises still face financing challenges, necessitating innovative financial products and services to address both enterprise financing difficulties and the transformation of financial institutions [7]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to move beyond traditional collateral requirements, focusing on evaluating the "hard strengths" of companies, such as current orders and stable supply chains [7]. Multi-Dimensional Policy Tools - The implementation of a comprehensive policy tool system is essential for supporting technology finance, including venture capital, bank credit, capital markets, and technology insurance [3]. - The introduction of technology insurance products aims to provide risk coverage for key areas such as R&D losses and patent protection, creating a multi-layered risk-sharing mechanism for technology innovation [8]. Introduction of Patient Capital - The Financial Regulatory Authority's 2026 meeting highlighted the need to cultivate patient capital to support the development of new productive forces [9]. - Financial Asset Investment Companies (AICs) are recognized as a significant source of patient capital, facilitating long-term funding for technology enterprises [9][10]. - AICs are expected to expand, providing a foundation for early, small, long-term investments in hard technology sectors [9]. Future Outlook - The expansion of AICs is likely to mobilize more funds for technology innovation, with commercial banks increasingly participating in this initiative [11]. - AICs are positioned as a core platform for integrated financial services, combining equity investment with credit support to meet the operational needs of technology enterprises [10][11].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of enhancing financial services for technology innovation to support the development of new productive forces in China, particularly through policy guidance and financial support mechanisms [2][4]. Policy Guidance - Technology finance is identified as a key driver for industrial upgrading and achieving high-level technological self-reliance [2]. - The People's Bank of China has called for a multi-tiered financial service system to support key areas such as domestic demand, technology innovation, and small and medium-sized enterprises [2]. - By the end of Q4 2025, 275,000 technology-oriented SMEs received loan support, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [2]. Financial Support Mechanisms - A series of policies have been implemented since 2025 to guide medium- and long-term credit funds towards technology innovation, significantly boosting the development of new productive forces [3]. - The total loan balance for technology-oriented SMEs reached 3.63 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 19.8%, outpacing the growth of other loan categories by 13.6 percentage points [2]. Structural Adjustments - The implementation of the "High-Quality Development Implementation Plan for Technology Finance" aims to create a financial service system that aligns with technology innovation [3]. - The People's Bank of China has reduced various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, and increased the quota for re-loans for technology innovation and technological transformation by 400 billion yuan, totaling 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. Challenges and Innovations - Despite policy advancements, technology enterprises still face financing challenges, necessitating innovative financial products and services to address both enterprise financing difficulties and the transformation of financial institutions [6][7]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to move beyond traditional collateral requirements and assess companies based on their operational strengths and potential [7]. Collaborative Efforts - Banks are forming partnerships with local governments to facilitate connections between financial institutions and technology enterprises, utilizing methods like intellectual property pledge financing [7]. - The establishment of specialized financial institutions, such as technology banks and innovation financial departments, aims to provide comprehensive services tailored to the needs of technology-oriented enterprises [8]. Introduction of Patient Capital - The Financial Regulatory Authority has highlighted the importance of cultivating patient capital to support the development of new productive forces [9]. - Financial Asset Investment Companies (AICs) are recognized as a significant source of patient capital, facilitating long-term investments in technology innovation [9][10]. - The expansion of AICs is expected to enhance financial support for technology innovation, with several major banks already establishing their own AICs [9][10].

Liquidity Overview - In the first week of March, the liquidity environment turned loose, with a net withdrawal of 1.56 trillion yuan, including a net withdrawal of 1.36 trillion yuan from reverse repos[1] - The overnight rate (R001) decreased to 1.36% and the 7-day rate (R007) to 1.51%, but R001 rebounded to 1.39% by Friday due to cumulative liquidity pressure[1][14] Certificate of Deposit (CD) Trends - The issuance rate for 1-year CDs has dropped to 1.55-1.56%, the lowest since January 2025, down from a range of 1.58%-1.60% over the past month[1][14] - The net issuance of CDs in the first week of March was 133.4 billion yuan, indicating a shift in supply dynamics as banks prepare for the upcoming quarter-end[2][15] Market Outlook - The liquidity is expected to remain loose in the coming week (March 9-13), with R001 projected to stay around 1.35% and R007 slightly above the OMO by 5-10 basis points[3][20] - The upcoming tax period is anticipated to have a limited impact on liquidity, with historical average tax payments around 1.1 trillion yuan[3][21] Government Debt and Payments - The government debt net payment is projected to be -202.1 billion yuan for March 9-13, indicating a negative net payment scenario[5][20] - The total amount of government debt due during this period is expected to be 4.975 trillion yuan, with a significant portion being rolled over[5][32] Interbank Market and Bill Rates - The 1-month bill rate increased by 8 basis points to 1.53%, while the 3-month and 6-month rates decreased to 1.38% and 1.17%, respectively[6][37] - Major banks have shifted to net selling in the bill market, with a net sell of 13.1 billion yuan during the first week of March[6][40] Pressure on Certificates of Deposit - The upcoming maturity of CDs is set to reach 992.4 billion yuan, significantly higher than the previous week's 583 billion yuan, indicating increased maturity pressure[7][44] - The average issuance term for CDs has lengthened to 8.7 months, up from 7.0 months the previous week, suggesting banks are preparing for the quarter-end[7][48]

Group 1 - The report indicates that credit bonds are following the downward trend of interest rates, with short-end spreads widening and mid to long-end spreads narrowing. The yield on 1Y, 3Y, 5Y, and 7Y government bonds decreased by 6BP, 4BP, 2BP, and 2BP respectively, while the 10Y yield remained flat. Credit bond yields decreased more significantly in the mid to long term, with 1Y credit bond yields down by 3BP across all ratings [10][3] - The report highlights that the credit spreads for urban investment bonds mostly increased by 0-2BP. External ratings for AAA, AA+, and AA platforms saw an overall increase of 1BP compared to the previous week, with specific increases noted in Hainan and other regions [14][19] - The report notes that the industrial bond spreads mostly experienced slight widening, particularly in mixed-ownership real estate bonds, which saw a significant increase of 31BP. Notable increases were observed in the spreads of Longfor and Vanke [24][4] Group 2 - The report states that the curve for perpetual bonds is showing a steepening trend, with short-end performance being stronger. The overall spread for perpetual bonds has slightly increased, with 1Y and 3Y yields decreasing by 3-5BP and 2BP respectively, while 10Y yields increased by 1BP [29][29] - The report suggests that the 3Y industrial perpetual bond excess spread has narrowed to 9.63BP, while the 5Y excess spread remained flat at 13.21BP. The urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bond excess spread narrowed to 7.46BP, while the 5Y spread widened to 10.98BP [31][31] - The report recommends that investors consider building a base with credit bonds maturing within 3Y and look for trading opportunities in perpetual bonds. The overall bond market remains stable, with a preference for credit arbitrage strategies among investors [34][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant increase in foreign currency reserves and gold holdings, indicating a strong position in international financial stability and asset diversification. Group 1: Foreign Currency Reserves - As of February 2026, foreign currency reserves reached USD 34,278.07 billion, up from USD 33,990.78 billion in January, reflecting a growth of approximately 0.85% [1] - The total reserves, including other assets, increased from USD 38,362.81 billion in January to USD 38,826.93 billion in February, marking a rise of about 1.22% [1] Group 2: Gold Reserves - The gold reserves stood at 74.22 million ounces by the end of February 2026, an increase of 30,000 ounces from 74.19 million ounces at the end of January, representing a continuous increase for 16 months [2]

Core Viewpoint - The weak February jobs report, showing a drop of 92,000 in nonfarm payrolls, supports the rationale for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates further, focusing on labor market support rather than inflation concerns [1]. Group 1: Interest Rate Policy - Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran advocates for a more accommodative monetary policy to support the labor market, suggesting that the current interest rate range of 3.5% to 3.75% is not appropriate [2]. - Miran believes that the neutral interest rate should be about a full percentage point lower, around 3.1%, indicating the need for two more rate cuts [3]. Group 2: Inflation Measurement - Miran argues that high inflation numbers are more a result of measurement methods by the Commerce and Labor departments rather than true economic pressures [3]. - He cites portfolio management fees, which have increased due to a rising stock market, as a factor contributing to perceived inflation, despite the underlying rates remaining stable [4]. Group 3: Oil Prices and Core Inflation - Miran downplays the impact of rising oil prices on inflation, stating that such increases are typically one-off shocks that do not warrant a Federal Reserve response [5]. - He emphasizes that core inflation, excluding energy prices, is a better predictor of medium-term inflation trends than headline inflation [5]. Group 4: Governance and Future Outlook - Miran has consistently dissented at Federal Open Market Committee meetings, advocating for more aggressive rate cuts than those approved [5]. - He expresses hope for consensus on future rate cuts but acknowledges that the decision will depend on his colleagues [6].