Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 3318.25 with no change [2] - London Silver's latest price is 35.77 with no change [2] - London Platinum's latest price is 1304.00 with no change [2] - London Palladium's latest price is 1049.00, down 22.00 [2] - WTI Crude's latest price is 64.92 with no change [2] - LME Copper's latest price is 9761.00, up 35.50 [2] - The latest Dollar Index is 97.70 with no change [2] - The latest Euro to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with no change [2] - The latest British Pound to US Dollar exchange rate is 1.37 with no change [2] - The latest US Dollar to Japanese Yen exchange rate is 145.27 with no change [2] - The latest US 10 - year TIPS is 2.01 with no change [2] Trading Data - COMEX Silver's latest inventory is 15561.77 with no change [3] - SHFE Silver's latest inventory is 1270.83, down 5.97 [3] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 953.39 with no change [3] - Silver ETF's latest holding is 14866.19, down 50.88 [3] - SGE Silver's latest inventory is 1378.88 with no change [3] - SGE Gold's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3] - SGE Silver's latest deferred fee payment direction is 1 with no change [3] Data Source - The data in the report is sourced from Bloomberg, Yong'an Yuandian Information, and Wind [10]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The medium - to long - term trend of precious metals may be bullish, while in the short - term, they are expected to remain in a high - level oscillation under the circumstances of eased geopolitical risks and non - sensitive trade tariff negotiations. Short - term corrections are regarded as medium - to long - term buying opportunities. The key support for London gold is at 3300, and for London silver is in the 34.8 - 35 area [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Thursday, the precious metals market showed a pattern of strong silver and volatile gold. Bitcoin maintained an oscillation, the US dollar index fell below 98, crude oil oscillated, and the strong US stock market also suppressed the safe - haven demand for precious metals. The abnormal copper price drove the relatively strong trend of silver. COMEX gold 2508 contract closed at $3341.6 per ounce, down 0.04%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $36.885 per ounce, up 1.22%. SHFE gold 2508 main contract closed at 775.28 yuan per gram, up 0.69%; SHFE silver 2508 contract closed at 8796 yuan per kilogram, up 1.7% [2]. - US economic data strengthened the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The final value of US GDP in 25Q1 was revised down to - 0.5%, and personal consumption showed the weakest performance since the pandemic. Although the number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was lower than expected, the number of continued jobless claims jumped to the highest level since November 2021. The preliminary value of the month - on - month change in US durable goods orders in May was 16.4%, the largest increase since July 2014 [2]. 3.2 Interest Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - According to CME's "FedWatch" data, the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in July is 79.3%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 20.7%. In September, the probability of unchanged rates is 6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 74.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 19.1%. In October, the probability of unchanged rates is 1.8%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 26.3%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 58.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 13.5% [3]. - In terms of long - term funds, the holdings of SPDR Gold ETF remained at 953.39 tons; the holdings of iShares Silver ETF decreased by 50.88 tons to 14866.19 tons. SHFE silver inventory decreased by 6 tons to 1270.8 tons daily, and SGX silver inventory decreased by 21 tons to 1357.8 tons in the week ending June 20 [3]. 3.3 This Week's Focus - This week, the main data to focus on is the US PCE data on Friday night. In terms of events, attention should be paid to changes in the Middle East geopolitical situation, progress in trade tariff negotiations, and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. At 19:30 on Friday, FOMC permanent voter and New York Fed President Williams will chair a meeting at the 24th BIS Annual Meeting [4]. 3.4 Precious Metals Price and Inventory Data - **Precious Metals Price Table**: The table shows the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and SGX gold and silver futures, as well as the CME gold - silver ratio [6]. - **Inventory and Holdings Table**: It includes the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of SHFE and CME gold and silver inventories, as well as the holdings of gold and silver ETFs [17][18]. - **Stock, Bond, and Commodity Summary**: It presents the latest values, daily changes, and daily change rates of the US dollar index, US dollar - RMB exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average, WTI crude oil spot price, LmeS copper 03 price, 10 - year US Treasury yield, 10 - year US real interest rate, and 10 - 2 year US Treasury yield spread [24].

股指日报 股指期货日报 2025年6月26日 王梦颖（Z0015429）、廖臣悦 (F03120676) 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 小幅缩量调整，等待新的驱动出现 市场回顾 今日股指震荡偏弱，以沪深300指数为例，收盘下跌0.35%。从资金面来看，两市成交额回落195.89亿元。期 指均缩量下跌。 重要资讯 1. 国家发改委：将于今年7月份下达今年第三批消费品以旧换新资金，同时，将协调有关方面，坚持更加注重 持续性和均衡性原则，分领域制定落实到每个月、每一周的国补资金使用计划，保障消费品以旧换新政策全 年有序实施。 核心观点 今日股指小幅缩量回调，调整幅度不大，从盘面指标来看，市场情绪没有明显变化，因此我们认为今日股指 偏弱运行是基于连续多日放量上涨的阶段性调整。由于目前经济基本面仍处于弱复苏状态，信贷、通胀等数 据表现疲软，托底政策预期有所升温，对股指形成支撑。不过短期政策面预计难以出现新的增量信号，需要 等待7月政治局会议的政策指引。当前操作建议多头可持仓观望。 策略推荐 多头持仓观望 股指日报期指市场观察 | | IF | IH | IC | IM | | --- | --- | ...

国债期货日报 2025年6月26日 行情企稳，继续观望 盘面点评： 国债期货早盘小幅高开后震荡下行，盘中翻绿，午后低位窄幅震荡，尾盘回升跌幅有所收窄。公开市场方 面，到期逆回购2035亿，央行新做5093亿，当日净投放3058亿，市场情绪得到明显呵护。 日内消息： 1.商务部：中国一贯高度重视维护全球产供链的稳定与安全，依法依规不断加快对稀土相关出口许可申请的 审查，已经依法批准一定数量的合规申请，并将持续加强合规申请的审批工作。中方愿就此进一步加强与相 关国家的出口管制沟通对话，积极促进便利合规贸易 。 行情研判： 当前债市（特别是长端）跟A股跷跷板效应依旧明显，早盘A股震荡上行期间T从日内高点回落。但总体来看A 股表现较昨日明显降温，在没有基本面利好驱动，单纯靠地缘缓和以及稳定币概念支撑的行情，其持续性也 有待观望。而债市在本轮A股大涨中其实本来表现得就比较有韧性，跌幅并不算大，A股情绪降温的同时，长 端合约价格也有企稳迹象。 | 数据一览 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

智通财经6月26日电，南华期货(603093.SH)公告称，公司股票连续三个交易日内收盘价格涨幅偏离值累 计达到20%，属于股票交易异常波动情形。经自查，公司目前日常经营活动正常，主营业务未发生变 化，无影响股价的重大经营事项。此外，公司不存在应披露而未披露的重大信息，包括重大资产重组、 发行股份、上市公司收购等事项。公司提醒投资者注意二级市场交易风险，理性决策，审慎投资。 南华期货：生产经营正常 无重大未披露事项 ...

沪银期货主力涨近2%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 铜冠金源期货 金银价格大概率还会继续调整 宁证期货 白银震荡偏多 瑞达期货（002961） 贵金属市场短期或维持震荡格局 6月26日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至8805.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合约 报8796.00元，涨幅1.70%。 宁证期货：白银震荡偏多 虽然目前市场预期7月降息的概率依然不高，但是鲍威尔讲话已经有所松动，表明如果通胀可控，不排 除提前降息，美联储降息预期增加，中东战争结束，白银上涨动能将增加。白银震荡偏多，关注降息预 期是否进一步强化。 瑞达期货：贵金属市场短期或维持震荡格局 受避险需求降温与鲍威尔偏鹰立场影响，贵金属市场短期或维持震荡格局，后续走势仍取决于美联储的 政策立场表态以及通胀就业数据的实际表现，近期投资者对于黄金作为避险对冲工具的吸引力边际走 弱，金价上行或仍受到阻力，但中长期来看，美国大型减税法案导致的财政赤字抬高以及美元信用边际 受损仍利多金价。沪金2508合约关注区间：750-780元/克；沪银2508合约关注区间：8600-8900元/千 克。 铜冠金源期货：金银价 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Nanhua Futures Tin Risk Management Daily Report - Date: June 26, 2025 - Research Team: Nanhua Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core View - The fundamentals of tin remain stable. There are both利多 factors such as the easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector being in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations, and利空 factors including the recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [3][4][5][6] Key Points by Category 1. Tin Price Volatility and Risk Management - The latest closing price of tin is 263,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 245,000 - 263,000 yuan/ton. The current volatility is 21.40%, and the historical percentile of the current volatility is 56.9% [2] - For inventory management with high finished - product inventory and concerns about price drops, it is recommended to sell short the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 290,000 yuan/ton with a 100% hedging ratio and sell the call option SN2508C275000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] - For raw material management with low raw - material inventory and concerns about price increases, it is recommended to buy long the main Shanghai tin futures contract at around 230,000 yuan/ton with a 50% hedging ratio and sell the put option SN2508P245000 with a 25% hedging ratio when the volatility is appropriate [2] 2. News and Factors - The fundamentals of tin remain stable [3] -利多 factors: easing of Sino - US tariff policies, the semiconductor sector in an expansion cycle, and Myanmar's production resumption falling short of expectations [4] -利空 factors: recurrence of tariff policies, Myanmar's production resumption, and the semiconductor sector's slowdown in expansion and transition to a contraction cycle [5][6] 3. Tin Futures and Spot Data Futures Data (Daily) - The latest price of the main Shanghai tin futures contract is 263,000 yuan/ton, with no daily change. The price of Shanghai tin continuous - one is 263,140 yuan/ton, and Shanghai tin continuous - three is 262,950 yuan/ton, both with no daily change. The price of LME tin 3M is 32,460 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars (- 0.34%). The Shanghai - London ratio is 8.04, down 0.01 (- 0.12%) [6] Spot Data (Weekly) - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous tin ingots is 262,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.83%). The 1 tin premium is 700 yuan/ton with no change. The price of 40% tin concentrate is 250,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.87%), and the price of 60% tin concentrate is 254,100 yuan/ton, down 2,200 yuan (- 0.86%). The price of solder bar (60A) is 170,750 yuan/ton, down 1,000 yuan (- 0.58%), the price of solder bar (63A) is 177,750 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan (- 0.84%), and the price of lead - free solder is 268,250 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan (- 0.74%) [10][13] 4. Tin Import and Processing - The tin import profit and loss is - 12,717.24 yuan/ton, up 25.63% compared to the previous day. The 40% tin ore processing fee is 12,200 yuan/ton with no change, and the 60% tin ore processing fee is 10,550 yuan/ton with no change [15] 5. Tin Inventory - The total warehouse receipt quantity of tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 6,472 tons, up 10 tons (0.15%). The warehouse receipt quantity in Guangdong is 4,117 tons, up 8 tons (0.19%), and in Shanghai is 1,430 tons, up 2 tons (0.14%). The total LME tin inventory is 2,155 tons, down 25 tons (- 1.15%) [20]

南华期货铜风险管理日报 2025年6月26日 南华有色金属研究团队 肖宇非 投资咨询证号：Z0018441 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 铜价格波动率（日度） | 最新价格 | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率 | 当前波动率历史百分位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 78810 | 73000-80000 | 8.58% | 6.7% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 铜风险管理建议（日度） | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例 | 建议入场区间 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 库存管理 | 产成品库存偏高，担心价格下跌 | 多 | 做空沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力期货合约 | 卖出 | 75% | 82000附近 | | | | | 卖出看涨期权 | CU2508C80000 | 卖出 | 25% | 波动率相对稳定时 | | 原料管理 | 原料库存较低，担心价格上涨 | 空 | 做多沪铜主力期货合约 | 沪铜主力 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Iron Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [1] - Analysts: Zhou Fuhan (Z0020173), Chen Mintao (F03118345) [1] - Investment Consulting Business Qualification: China Securities Regulatory Commission License [2011] No. 1290 [1] Group 2: Price Forecast and Hedging Price Forecast - Silicon Ferrosilicon Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 16.28%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 38.0% [2] - Silicon Manganese Price Range (Monthly): 5,300 - 6,000 yuan/ton; Current Volatility (20-day Rolling): 14.87%; Current Volatility Historical Percentile (3 years): 25.0% [2] Hedging - Inventory Management: For high finished product inventory, short iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 15% hedging ratio at SF: 6,200 - 6,250, SM: 6,400 - 6,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs [2] - Procurement Management: For low procurement inventory, buy iron alloy futures (SF2509, SM2509) with a 25% hedging ratio at SF: 5,100 - 5,200, SM: 5,300 - 5,400 to lock in procurement costs [2] Group 3: Core Contradiction - Iron alloys have a certain rebound sentiment due to technical buying, but the spot market is dragged down by steel mill price pressure and weakening costs. In the context of the terminal steel demand entering the off-season, the long-term trend of iron alloys remains relatively weak. The previous high inventory and high supply of iron alloys are gradually weakening, and the supply side maintains low supply pressure. Iron alloys will continue the de-stocking trend, but the de-stocking speed has slowed down. There is an expectation of lower electricity prices for iron alloys and the arrival of the wet season in the south, so the cost side still has a downward expectation. The July quotation of manganese ore has been lowered, and the black market is facing the expectation of negative feedback in the off-season demand trading. It is expected that iron alloys will still operate weakly. However, the trading volume of iron alloys has decreased, and some funds have left the market. When the valuation is too low, it is vulnerable to news disturbances. In the short term, there is a rebound, but the rebound space is limited. Wait for the rebound to short [3] Group 4: Bullish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - High steel mill profitability will maintain high hot metal production, which supports the demand for silicon ferrosilicon [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [4] - Silicon ferrosilicon profits are at the bottom of the profit range, with production cut drivers, and the futures market may rebound due to production cut disturbances [4] - This week, the silicon ferrosilicon enterprise inventory was 68,100 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.71% [4] Silicon Manganese - The government's control policies for high-energy-consuming industries remain strict, and the silicon manganese industry may undergo industrial structure adjustment and upgrading under policy regulations [5] - The total silicon manganese inventory shows a de-stocking trend [5] - Silicon manganese has been falling continuously, and the low valuation has the possibility of a rebound [5] - Silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 474,800 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.06%; the total silicon manganese inventory was 680,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.73% [5] Group 5: Bearish Factors Silicon Ferrosilicon - The weekly operating rate of silicon ferrosilicon production enterprises was 32.69%, a week-on-week increase of 1.34%. The weekly output of silicon ferrosilicon was 97,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 2.93% [6] - The coal sector continues to be weak, and there is an expectation of further decline in the electricity cost of iron alloys [6] Silicon Manganese - In the long term, the real estate market is sluggish, the black overall sector is declining, and the market has doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The demand for silicon manganese is relatively weak [7] - The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese production enterprises was 36.39%, a week-on-week increase of 1.09%. The weekly output of silicon manganese was 176,600 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.85%. The silicon manganese enterprise inventory was 205,900 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.1% [7] - The July quotation of Comilog Gabon lump ore is 4.25 US dollars/ton degree, a month-on-month decrease of 0.15 US dollars/ton degree [7] Group 6: Daily Data Silicon Ferrosilicon - On June 25, 2025, the silicon ferrosilicon basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 86 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 01 - 05 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 18 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 24 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 05 - 09 spread was -22 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 26 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 34 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon 09 - 01 spread was 44 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 8 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon spot price in Ningxia was 5,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day and a week-on-week increase of 50 yuan/ton [8] - The silicon ferrosilicon warehouse receipts were 6,415 tons, an increase of 6,415 tons from the previous day and a week-on-week decrease of 8,686 tons [8] Silicon Manganese - On June 25, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 196 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 98 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 78 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was -16 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 2 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 10 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 05 - 09 spread was 46 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 24 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 12 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese 09 - 01 spread was -30 yuan/ton, a day-on-day increase of 22 yuan/ton and a week-on-week increase of 2 yuan/ton [9] - The double-silicon spread was -280 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 12 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese spot price in Ningxia was 5,400 yuan/ton, a day-on-day decrease of 30 yuan/ton and a week-on-week decrease of 30 yuan/ton [9] - The silicon manganese warehouse receipts were 93,468 tons, a day-on-day decrease of 301 tons and a week-on-week decrease of 1,427 tons [10]

·西南期货：中长期上涨逻辑仍强考虑做多黄金期货 ·银河期货：短期内预计贵金属将延续高位震荡走势 ·广州期货：避险情绪降温美联储降息没有紧迫性贵金属价格或小幅承压 ·Zaner Metals：对停火能否持续的不确定性限制金价跌幅 ·FXStreet：美元走软金价整体仍保持积极偏向 ·银河期货表示，由于伊以双方在美国的介入下暂时实现停火，避险情绪回落。美国货币政策路径方 面，尽管昨日鲍威尔等人的发言稍显鹰派、总体维持观望态度，但市场对于下半年的降息预期有所提 升、并小幅抢跑，美元和美债收益率连续走低。往后看，尽管地缘因素的缓和为黄金带来溢价出清的压 力，但市场后续的焦点可能重新回美国宏观基本面和美联储的货币政策上来，当前关税冲击引起的风险 并未消除，美联储也仍处于降息通道之中，这些因素为贵金属下方提供了良好的支撑。因此短期内预计 贵金属将延续在高位震荡的走势。 ·广州期货表示，以色列和伊朗同意全面停火，地缘风险缓和。美联储主席鲍威尔在国会证词中表示， 美联储目前处于有利位置，能够耐心等待，待对经济走向有更清晰的判断后再考虑调整货币政策立场； 但他不排除关税对通胀的影响可能没有预期大，不排除提前降息的可能。世界大型 ...