Valuation of Hong Kong Stock Market - The Hang Seng Composite Index (HSCI) and Hang Seng Index (HSI) are key indicators of market valuation[8][12] - The Hang Seng Technology Index (HSTECH) reflects the valuation trends in the tech sector[16][18] Industry Valuation Levels - The PE (TTM) valuation shows that the utilities sector is undervalued, with a percentile below 20%[23] - Consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare, information technology, and utilities are below the 50th percentile in PE valuation[23] - High valuation sectors (above 50%) include energy, materials, industrials, financials, and telecommunications[23] - No sectors are currently undervalued based on PB (LF) valuation, with consumer staples, information technology, utilities, and real estate below the 50th percentile[27] - Energy, materials, industrials, consumer discretionary, healthcare, financials, and telecommunications are above the 50th percentile in PB valuation[27] AH Share Premium/Discount Levels - The Hang Seng AH Share Premium Index shows fluctuations in premium levels over time, with historical averages and standard deviations noted[33]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend sectors currently possess strong allocation value due to improved liquidity and foreign capital inflow, with a projected net inflow of 1.3 trillion yuan by 2025 [1] - High dividend stocks generally exhibit robust cash flow and sustainable dividend capabilities, with major tech companies like Tencent and Alibaba offering shareholder returns exceeding 5% through dividends and buybacks, while some companies have dividend yields supported by free cash flow reaching 4%-6% [1] - The internet healthcare and OTA sectors maintain growth rates above 15%, with ongoing policy benefits such as the opening of online medical insurance payments in 18 cities and an increase in online drug sales, currently at 16% [1] Group 2 - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF (159331) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect high dividend index (930914), which selects 30 high dividend yield securities from listed companies that meet Stock Connect criteria, focusing on those with good liquidity and consistent dividends [1] - The index's constituent stocks are primarily distributed across banking, transportation, coal, and public utilities sectors, showcasing stable returns and low volatility characteristics [1] - The Hong Kong Dividend ETF has consistently distributed dividends for 16 months, making it noteworthy for investors [2]

Core Insights - The low-volatility dividend index demonstrates strong risk resistance, leading to increased market demand for related index products, particularly from long-term investors and financial institutions [2][8][9] Group 1: Characteristics of Low-Volatility Dividend Index - The low-volatility dividend index is based on high dividend and low volatility factors, with its first iteration launched in China in December 2013 [3] - The number of indices and related products has increased significantly, with 11 pure stock low-volatility dividend indices launched by the China Securities Index Company by Q1 2025 [4] - Investment scale in related products has surged, with passive index fund investments in major low-volatility dividend indices reaching 47.09 billion yuan in 2024, a 20-fold increase from 2022 [5] Group 2: Performance and Stability - The low-volatility dividend index has outperformed broad market indices and government bonds over the past three years, with a total return index nearly doubling in five years [5][6] - The index's volatility is lower than that of major market indices, with a significantly higher Sharpe ratio, indicating better risk-adjusted returns [6] - In extreme market conditions, the low-volatility dividend index has consistently outperformed the CSI 300 index, demonstrating its defensive characteristics [6] Group 3: Institutional Investor Engagement - Institutional investors hold a significant portion of low-volatility dividend products, with 85.53% of holdings attributed to them by the end of 2024 [7] - The introduction of new financial accounting standards has made it easier for insurance and brokerage firms to invest in low-volatility dividend equities [7] Group 4: Market Demand and Future Outlook - There is an anticipated increase in market demand for low-volatility dividend indices as long-term capital seeks stable investment options amid a low-interest-rate environment [9][10] - Financial institutions are increasingly viewing low-volatility dividend indices as a means to optimize asset allocation and enhance risk-adjusted returns [10] - Ordinary investors are also shifting towards more stable and long-term value investments, aligning with the characteristics of low-volatility dividend indices [10] Group 5: Limitations and Challenges - The sustainability of dividend yields and future performance is under scrutiny, particularly due to reliance on traditional cyclical industries [11] - There is a notable disparity in fund product performance, with smaller funds facing operational challenges and potential liquidation risks [12] - The index's reliance on short historical data may hinder its ability to adapt to market changes, affecting its long-term performance [12] Group 6: Recommendations for Development - It is recommended to encourage the creation and investment in low-volatility dividend indices and products, enhancing their market presence [13] - Increasing investor education and transparency regarding the benefits of low-volatility dividend indices is essential for broader adoption [14] - Optimizing the index compilation methodology to better reflect market trends and enhance its attractiveness is advised [15] - Improving the quality and governance of listed companies to ensure sustainable dividend practices is crucial for the long-term success of low-volatility dividend strategies [16]

（编辑 任世碧） 证券日报网讯 12月15日晚间，陕天然气发布公告称，公司于2025年12月15日召开第六届董事会第二十 四次会议，审议通过了《关于拟续聘会计师事务所的议案》，同意续聘信永中和会计师事务所（特殊普 通合伙）为公司2025年度审计机构，本次续聘会计师事务所事项尚需提交公司股东会审议。 ...

证券日报网讯 12月15日晚间，广州发展（600098）发布公告称，公司将于2025年12月30日召开2025年 第二次临时股东大会。 ...

Company Overview - Guangzhou Development (SH 600098) announced its 20th meeting of the 9th board of directors to be held on December 15, 2025, via a combination of in-person and video conference [1] - As of the report, Guangzhou Development has a market capitalization of 23.8 billion yuan [1] Revenue Composition - For the first half of 2025, the revenue composition of Guangzhou Development is as follows: - Coal accounts for 44.2% - Pipeline gas accounts for 21.39% - Oil products account for 11.75% - Coal power accounts for 7.91% - Gas power accounts for 5.35% - Wind power accounts for 5.25% [1]

Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than October and 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, and was below market expectations[12] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with private fixed asset investment down by 5.3%[21] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to November saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% and real estate investment fell by 15.9%[23] - High-tech industries maintained strong performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in industrial added value from January to November[2] - Real estate new construction area decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% and sales revenue down by 11.1%[28] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was particularly pronounced in post-real estate consumption categories such as furniture and home appliances, which saw significant drops[15] - Online retail accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%[14] Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should consider early implementation to address potential uncertainties in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the late timing of the Spring Festival[32] - Short-term focus on monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is recommended[32] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[32]

Choice统计显示，12月15日，沪深两市可交易A股中，上涨个股有2192只，下跌个股有2810只，平盘个 股有155只。不含当日上市新股，共有64只个股涨停，27只个股跌停。从所属行业来看，涨停个股主要 集中在商贸零售、食品饮料、电力设备、化工、公用事业等行业。 （文章来源：证券时报网） ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Market Outlook**: The Chinese market is expected to enter a transformation bull market, with a forecasted peak before the Spring Festival, driven by improved market liquidity due to reallocation and institutional fund inflows [1][3] - **Fiscal Policy**: Anticipated fiscal deficit rate for next year is around 4%, with a total scale of approximately 5.9 trillion RMB, including local government special bonds estimated at 4.6-4.8 trillion RMB [1][6] - **Monetary Policy**: The People's Bank of China is likely to cut interest rates early next year to stabilize the economy and support price recovery [1][7] Key Sectors and Investment Recommendations - **Technology and Growth Sectors**: Strong recommendations for emerging technology sectors, including internet, media, computing, and AI-related fields, as well as financial sectors like brokerage and insurance [1][10] - **Cyclical Industries**: Positive outlook on cyclical products such as non-ferrous metals, chemicals, steel, and building materials [1][11] - **Aviation Industry**: Recovery in demand for the aviation sector with rising ticket prices; expected continued growth in demand next year, with low fleet growth on the supply side [1][13] - **Shipping Industry**: The oil shipping sector is projected to reach a ten-year high in Q4, driven by unexpected demand growth from increased crude oil production [2][14] Specific Company Insights - **Aviation Companies**: Positive outlook on companies like Air China, Juneyao Airlines, and China Eastern Airlines due to expected demand growth and improved profitability [1][13] - **Shipping Companies**: Recommendations for COSCO Shipping Energy, China Merchants Energy Shipping, and China Ship Leasing based on favorable market conditions [2][14] - **Chemical Sector**: Companies with cost advantages and improving bottom-line performance, such as Hualu Hengsheng and Huafon Chemical, are recommended [2][19] Additional Insights - **Consumer Behavior**: The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to stimulate durable goods consumption, with an increase in the budget from 300 billion to 350 billion RMB [1][6] - **Market Dynamics**: Historical data suggests that early adjustments in December can lead to an earlier start for the spring market rally [1][8] - **Investment Strategy**: Focus on sectors with strong fundamentals and potential for valuation shifts, particularly in export, global manufacturing expansion, and AI [1][9] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is optimistic for the Chinese market in 2026, with a focus on technology and cyclical sectors as key investment opportunities. The anticipated policy changes and market dynamics are expected to support growth across various industries, particularly aviation and shipping.

（张宇生/郭磊）2025-12-14 您可点击今日推送内容的第1条查看 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 今 日 聚 焦 【策略】新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期——策略周专题（2025年12月第2期） 新一轮政策部署护航，A股跨年行情可期。一方面，未来国内经济政策有望持续发力，经济增长有望保持在合 理区间，进一步夯实资本市场繁荣发展的基础；另一方面，政策红利释放，有望提振市场信心，进一步吸引各 类资金积极流入；此外，历史来看，"十三五"和"十四五"开局之年A股市场均有不错的表现，历史上开局之年 的积极表现有望在2026年得到延续。 您可点击今日推送内容的第3条查看 【房地产】11月核心15城二手房成交面积环比+15%——光大核心城市房地产销售跟踪（2025年11月 ...