瑞幸咖啡以实惠的产品为武器扩大店铺网络（5月，辽宁省沈阳市） 中国的消费者越来越倾向于寻求性价比，珠宝店和高价位餐厅面临困境，而打出实惠价格的咖啡店和连 锁酒店则表现良好。一些消费相关企业抓住了重视性价比的需求，这些企业崛起与过去的日本十分相 似…… 中国消费者重视性价比的倾向进一步增强。中国消费相关企业2025年第一季度（1～3月）的财报显示， 珠宝店和高价位餐饮店面临困境，而打出实惠价格的咖啡店和连锁酒店则表现良好。房地产低迷导致的 经济停滞正在改变消费行为，影响企业业绩。 消费者越来越倾向于寻求大众化且有性价比的店——高档北京烤鸭店全聚德的总经理周延龙如此看待当 前的餐饮行业消费趋势。 全聚德第一季度财报显示收入下降了7%。由于中国领导层持续加强整风肃纪，宴请需求呈缩减趋势。 这次加上经济低迷，加剧了这一情况的恶化。 中国国家统计局的数据显示，1～3月的社会消费品零售总额同比增长4.6%，达到12.467万亿元。而这一 数据曾保持10%左右的增长，现在显得乏力。 由于出现这样的消费变化，以价格低为卖点的店铺开始崛起。大型零售企业王府井集团的奥特莱斯门店 的营收增加了4%。居住在辽宁省大连市的李女士（26 ...

值得注意的是，星巴克亚太区近半年已有多位高管离职或调岗。新任CEO布莱恩·尼科尔（Brian Niccol）自2024年9月上任以来，持续推动管理层重组，包括 整合北美业务层级、任命中国区新负责人等。市场分析认为，尼科尔可能希望进一步集中决策权，优化区域运营效率，以应对中国本土咖啡品牌如瑞幸、霸 王茶姬的激烈竞争。 此外，星巴克在中国市场正面临增长放缓的挑战。2024财年财报显示，中国区同店销售额下滑明显，而竞争对手则通过低价策略和数字化运营抢占市场份 额。 目前，星巴克方面尚未公布祈思高的具体接替人选，但内部人士透露，星巴克可能会优先考虑具有本土市场经验的高管，以确保亚太区战略的连贯性。随着 管理层持续洗牌，星巴克能否在保持品牌调性的同时，灵活应对亚太市场的快速变化，仍有待观察。 星巴克亚太区管理层再现重大变动。近日，有媒体报道称星巴克亚太区门店发展与设计高级副总裁祈思高（Scott Keller）宣布离任。这是继今年2月亚太区 营销副总裁Samuel Fung离职、4月中国首席营销官Erin Silvoy调回总部后，星巴克亚太团队的又一次核心高管调整。 祈思高是星巴克亚太业务拓展的关键人物之一，拥有超过二 ...

"在菜市场卖咖啡？太魔性了！" 最近，成都一家10㎡的菜市场咖啡店火了。咖啡豆按克称重，现磨现冲，一杯8～30元，最高日销超百杯。 这并非个例。北京、武汉、杭州等地也冒出不少菜市场咖啡，甚至连瑞幸、库迪、Grid Coffee等连锁品牌也悄然布局。 菜市场，成咖啡新战场？ 成都"菜市场咖啡"火了，月租1000元，日销百余杯 最近，成都一家名为"饮豆是福·咖啡炒货铺"的10㎡小店，凭借"菜市场咖啡"的反差定位迅速走红。 开业仅一个月，小红书上相关笔记就突破3万篇，网友感叹"成都咖啡还是太超前了""又见大世面了"。成都发布、封面新闻等多家官方媒体也对其进行报 道。 这家店位于成都玉林综合市场，是夹在烤鸭铺和羊肉汤铺中间的一个开放式档口，网友调侃"十分割裂的存在"。 档口的陈设很简单，以卖豆子为主，咖啡都是基本款。数十种咖啡豆像市场其他摊位的瓜子、花生一样摆放，每种都标明产地和风味。 顾客自行挑选，店员现场称重制作，操作区后还摆着包装好的咖啡豆供零售。 一杯咖啡的计价方式也充满"菜场智慧"：美式价格=豆价×克数+手工+包材；奶咖价格=豆价×克数+手工+包材+牛奶/果汁价格。 以热销的"坚果盒子"为例，这款豆子售价0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The coffee and tea market is experiencing an unprecedented price war driven by aggressive subsidies from delivery platforms like JD and Taobao, leading to significant price reductions for various brands [1][2]. Group 1: Price War Dynamics - Delivery platforms have intensified their subsidy efforts, resulting in a surge in order volumes for brands like Kudi Coffee, which saw daily orders increase from approximately 100 to 600 after subsidy implementation [2]. - Kudi Coffee's product, originally priced at 7.9 yuan, is now available for as low as 1.68 yuan due to platform subsidies, with total costs remaining under 3 yuan [2]. - Luckin Coffee has also reduced prices on some drinks from 9.9 yuan to 6.9 yuan to strengthen its market position amid the price war [2]. Group 2: Market Impact and Brand Strategy - The subsidies are seen as a boon for coffee brands, with experts noting that coffee has become a necessity for the younger generation, making it an attractive target for delivery platforms [2][3]. - Tea brands like Mixue Ice City and Gu Ming are also benefiting from the subsidies, positioning themselves as long-term winners in this competitive landscape [2]. - Goldman Sachs has raised its profit forecasts and valuation multiples for Gu Ming and Mixue Ice City, increasing target prices significantly [2]. Group 3: Supply Chain Advantages - The construction of a robust supply chain is becoming a critical competitive factor in the price war, with companies that have optimized supply chains able to reduce costs and ensure product quality [4][5]. - Kudi Coffee has launched a new roasting facility in Anhui with an annual processing capacity of 75,000 tons, supporting daily sales of 10 million cups [4]. - Luckin Coffee has established multiple automated roasting facilities, achieving an annual roasting capacity exceeding 100,000 tons, creating a complete industry chain from cultivation to retail [4]. - Mixue Ice City leverages its five production bases across various regions to maintain control over raw material costs and quality, enhancing its competitive edge [4].

Group 1: Starbucks - Scott Keller, Senior Vice President of Store Development and Design for Starbucks Asia Pacific, has announced his departure after nearly nine years, during which the number of stores in the region doubled, averaging one new store opening per day [1] - Keller was responsible for leading the development strategy and design of Starbucks stores across major cities including Seoul, Bangkok, and Singapore [1] Group 2: Luckin Coffee - Luckin Coffee has expanded its self-operated stores in Hong Kong to 12 since entering the market in December 2024, with plans to further expand into core commercial areas like Central [2] - The company is also enhancing brand collaborations, with a SpongeBob-themed concept store opening from May 31 to June 29, featuring new co-branded beverages and a photo area [2] Group 3: Coffee Industry Growth - In April, 1,220 new coffee stores were opened across 27 tracked chain brands, representing a month-on-month increase of 3.74% and a year-on-year increase of 6.64%, bringing the total number of stores in the industry to 60,795 [3] - Luckin Coffee experienced a net decrease of 206 stores in April, indicating a network optimization strategy despite holding a 39.3% market share [3] - Starbucks opened 20 new stores in April, marking an 81.82% year-on-year increase, indicating a recovery trend [3] Group 4: Bawang Chaji - Bawang Chaji reported a net profit of 677 million yuan for Q1 2025, with a total GMV of 8.23 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 38% [4] - The company disclosed its overseas market performance for the first time, with overseas GMV reaching 178 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 85.3% [4] - The total number of Bawang Chaji stores globally reached 6,681 by the end of Q1 2025 [4]

瑞幸自创立之初，便凭借"补贴换规模"的策略，以低价咖啡迅速打开市场，掀起行业价格风暴，在咖啡市场中成功占据一席之地。但今年初，瑞幸悄悄上调 了多款产品原价，美式咖啡从23元涨至26元，拿铁从26元涨至29元，爆款生椰拿铁更是从29元涨到32元。但是，也有一些网友对比发现，瑞幸咖啡并非全国 统一价格，不同门店咖啡的原价有所不同。事实上，这并非瑞幸首次涨价，早在2020年，瑞幸就曾对全线产品进行过2至3元的价格上调。 业绩方面，瑞幸咖啡2025年一季度总净收入为88.65亿元，同比增长41.2%；GAAP营业利润达7.37亿元，营业利润率为8.3%。 5月30日午间，"瑞幸咖啡降价"话题登顶热搜，引发网友广泛热议。 有消费者向GPLP犀牛财经反映，瑞幸咖啡多款饮品价格骤降3元，迈入"6块9时代"。这一降价举措，在咖啡行业引发了广泛关注与讨论。不过，也有消费者 表示，其瑞幸小程序页面的产品售价仍显示为9.9元。 针对这一情况，瑞幸咖啡官方客服表示，瑞幸产品具体优惠情况以实际下单界面为准，平台不一样优惠券使用规则也不一样，消费者可以根据哪个最便宜使 用哪个平台。此外，瑞幸咖啡方面回应称，品牌为消费者推出端午节和儿童节 ...

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of aggressive pricing strategies in the coffee market, particularly driven by delivery platforms like JD.com, has sparked a new wave of price wars among coffee brands, raising questions about the sustainability of such low prices and consumer behavior in the long term [1][6][11]. Pricing Strategies - A cup of coffee from Kudi Coffee can be as low as 1.68 yuan on JD.com, significantly lower than the 7.9 yuan price on Kudi's own app, indicating a drastic price reduction strategy [1][5]. - The order volume for Kudi Coffee has nearly doubled compared to mid-May, with over 600 orders recorded in a single afternoon, showcasing the impact of low pricing on consumer demand [3][4]. Market Dynamics - The entry of JD.com into the coffee delivery market has intensified competition, with coffee and tea beverages becoming key products for attracting users [3][6]. - The current price war is not initiated by coffee brands but rather by delivery platforms, which are heavily subsidizing prices to gain market share [5][6]. Consumer Behavior - Consumers have developed a "low-price inertia," leading to concerns about whether they will be willing to pay full price for coffee in the future [3][6]. - A consumer who previously spent 10 to 30 yuan on coffee has shifted to Kudi Coffee due to the significant price drop facilitated by delivery platform subsidies [4][6]. Industry Trends - The share of freshly brewed coffee in the overall coffee market is increasing, projected to reach 44.6% by 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 18.5% from 2024 to 2028 [7][8]. - The price war is reminiscent of past strategies employed by brands like Luckin Coffee, which used low prices to quickly capture market share [6][10]. Challenges and Future Outlook - While the current low prices are attracting customers, brands face challenges related to supply chain management, operational efficiency, and product quality due to increased demand [11]. - Experts suggest that the coffee industry will undergo a process of consolidation, with weaker brands potentially exiting the market as competition intensifies [11].

政策加码，高中教育扩容。 1 ）高中教育行业还有 7-8 年人口红利期。高中段适龄人口出生日期约为 2008-2010 年（ 15-17 岁）、义务教育阶段为 2014-2019 年（ 6-14 岁）、学龄前为 2020-2025 年（ 0-5 岁），预计高中段教育行业仍有近 7-8 年的稳定人口需求。 2 ）政策支持高中阶段教育扩 容，从职普分流到职普融合。中国高中教育普及率显著提升，但仍落后于发达国家。中国普通高中毕业生 数占适龄人口比例逐步提高，近年来已接近发达国家水平。 风险提示： 1 ）居民消费能力持续低迷； 2 ）企业差旅预算受限； 3 ）消费出海面临市场、监管、海外 国家和地区政策等多重风险和不确定性。 文章来源 | 本文摘自：2025年6月3日发布的 新消费持续高景气，强政策推动大机会——社会服务及商贸零售2025年中期投资策略 | | --- | | 刘越男 ，资格证书编号： S0880516030003 | | 李宏科 ，资格证书编号： S0880525040107 | | 于清泰 ，资格证书编 号： S0880519100001 | | 许樱之 ，资格证书编号： S08805250400 ...

2 • 投资建议及推荐标的：1）推荐高中扩容。推荐：天立国际控股、学大教育。情绪价值消费结构景气。推荐：老铺黄金、潮宏基，受益标的： 曼卡龙。2）AI＋主题推荐：AI眼镜（康耐特光学、博士眼镜）、AI电商（小商品城）、AI玩具（孩子王）。3）低估值个股推荐：行动教 育、重庆百货、大商股份、周大福、百胜中国等。 • 政策加码，高中教育扩容。1）高中教育行业还有7-8年人口红利期。高中段适龄人口出生日期约为2008-2010年（15-17岁）、义务教育阶段 为2014-2019年（6-14岁）、学龄前为2020-2025年（0-5岁），预计高中段教育行业仍有近7-8年的稳定人口需求。 2）政策支持高中阶段教 育扩容，从职普分流到职普融合。中国高中教育普及率显著提升，但仍落后于发达国家。中国普通高中毕业生数占适龄人口比例逐步提高， 近年来已接近发达国家水平。 • 情绪与体验消费产业发展加速，传统需求迎来新供给。1）情绪价值与体验消费切中需求痛点，正在快速兑现商业价值。以IP潮玩为代表的 产业本质消费的是符号与内容价值，核心驱动力是不同社会阶段下底层心里诉求的更迭。2）黄金品类工艺附加值提升，消费属性提升驱动 市场持 ...