1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. Near the delivery, the September contract reduced positions and adjusted, with the futures price dropping significantly, and the 9 - 1 spread narrowing. After the November contract became the main contract, the price led the decline, and the January contract followed suit. The price range shifted downward. The price of Northeast corn has been weakly adjusted recently, and the market trading activity is poor. Traders have less remaining inventory, and the trading is also relatively light. Traders and deep - processing enterprises are mostly waiting for the new grain to be listed. The price of corn in North China has fluctuated, with an adjustment range of 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The arrival volume of deep - processing enterprises in Shandong remains low, but the continuous arrival of spring corn in some deep - processing enterprises supplements the supply, and enterprises adjust the price slightly according to their own situation. The price of corn in the sales area has been slightly adjusted and generally runs stably. The port pick - up speed is average, and downstream enterprises mainly execute previous orders or use inventory. The market trading atmosphere is a bit light, and the new grain in the northwest has been sporadically listed, attracting high attention. Technically, with the November contract as the main contract, the supply pressure of the new grain listing continues to affect the market, and the corn futures price is expected to continue the oscillatory weak trend. However, it should be noted that the January contract should pay short - term attention to the price performance at the 2150 integer mark and be vigilant against the rebound after a sharp decline [1]. - The price of soybean meal is expected to rise. On Wednesday, CBOT soybeans rose, supported by the increase in soybean meal futures. The market is also paying attention to the results of the Midwest crop inspection. The second - day survey by Pro Farmer showed that the number of soybean pods in Indiana was slightly lower than the 2024 level, while the number of soybean pods in Nebraska reached the highest level in at least 22 years. The market is looking forward to the results of the export sales report on Thursday, with an expected net increase in soybean sales of 10 - 130 tons. In the domestic market, soybean meal oscillates. The spot market provides little guidance, and the supply remains in a relatively loose pattern. Currently, the market is waiting for further guidance on China's soybean procurement in the fourth quarter. The repeated fluctuations in Brazilian premiums and US soybean prices have led to a slightly stronger import cost. The market is still worried about the long - term supply, resulting in a relatively strong futures price. The strategy is to maintain a unilateral long - position thinking and participate in the monthly positive spread [1]. - The price of oils is expected to rise. On Wednesday, BMD palm oil fell due to profit - taking and the weakness of related markets, but the strong export data of Malaysian palm oil limited the decline. Shipping data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil from August 1 - 20 increased by 13.6% - 17.5% month - on - month. The US soybean oil is waiting for the EPA's ruling on exempting some small refineries from the blending obligation. The market is worried that this may affect future vegetable oil demand. In the domestic market, the overall inventory pressure of the three major oils has increased, and the demand is still relatively weak, with the pre - school stocking demand not yet started. If the spot demand starts later, the supply - demand situation of oils is expected to improve, and the basis is expected to strengthen. The oil market is in a bullish trend. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - The price of eggs is expected to show an oscillatory downward trend. On Wednesday, the main egg contract 2510 oscillated higher after opening and then declined. As of the close, it rose 0.23% to 3072 yuan/500 kilograms, and the near - month 2509 contract rose 0.57% to 3000 yuan/500 kilograms. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the national egg price yesterday was 3.21 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month. Among the production areas, the price of Ningjin pink - shell eggs was 3.05 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Heishan brown - shell eggs was 2.9 yuan/jin, down 0.1 yuan/jin month - on - month. Among the sales areas, the price of Puxi brown - shell eggs was 3.31 yuan/jin, remaining flat month - on - month, and the price of Guangzhou brown - shell eggs was 3.33 yuan/jin, down 0.05 yuan/jin month - on - month. The terminal digestion is average, and most traders purchase according to sales. The egg prices in most sales areas are stable, with a few showing a slight decline. In the future, egg demand will enter the peak season, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in egg prices. Considering the supply - side pressure, the peak is likely to be lower than that of last year. In the short term, the futures will continue to decline, and the intraday rally yesterday followed by a decline shows that the rebound momentum is insufficient, and the market sentiment is bearish [1]. - The price of live pigs is expected to oscillate. On Wednesday, the live pig futures oscillated, and the main 2511 contract fell 0.9% to 13775 yuan/ton. In terms of spot prices, according to Zhuochuang data, the daily average price of live pigs in China yesterday was 13.78 yuan/kg, up 0.08 yuan/kg month - on - month. The average price of live pigs in the standard delivery area of Henan remained flat month - on - month, while the prices in Guangdong, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Shandong increased to varying degrees. In the northern region, the breeding side continued to reduce supply and hold back sales, and downstream enterprises increased the purchase price. Affected by the north, the breeding side in the south has a mentality of driving up prices and mostly holds back sales, supporting the rise in pig prices. According to the seasonal pattern, as the high - temperature weather subsides in various places in the future, demand will recover. Coupled with the main theme of anti - involution, there is support for pig prices. However, the abundant supply still exerts pressure on pig prices. The live pig spot price has rebounded slightly at a low level, and the futures will continue to oscillate weakly. In the future, continuous attention should be paid to the impact of policies and market sentiment on the live pig futures price [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information - The direct impact of US market restrictions on the Malaysian palm oil industry is expected to be relatively limited. In 2024, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US were 191,231 tons, accounting for only 1.1% of the annual export volume. The Malaysian government will continue to provide assistance through measures such as the oil palm small - farmer replanting financing incentive plan, including providing special subsidy products for preventing Ganoderma disease [3]. - In July, the rapeseed crushing volume of the 27 EU countries and the UK was 134.0 million tons, up from 123.7 million tons in June but down from 156.9 million tons in July 2024. The soybean crushing volume was 104.6 million tons, down from 115.1 million tons in June and 112.6 million tons in July 2024. The total oilseed crushing volume in Europe in July was 259.3 million tons, lower than 275.4 million tons in June and 313.6 million tons in July 2024 [3]. - US private exporters reported sales of 125,741 tons of corn to Mexico and 100,000 tons of corn to Colombia for delivery in the 2025/2026 marketing year [4]. - Malaysian independent inspection机构 Amspec showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 869,780 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.5%. Shipping survey机构 ITS data showed that Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 were 929,051 tons, a 13.61% increase from the same period last month [4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and contract basis data for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybean, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and live pigs, but no specific analysis of these data is provided [5][13]

1 交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 8 月 21 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-8-21） | | | | 铁矿：短期制造业复苏被打断，ZZJ 会议不及预期，国内供给政策预期被 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 阶段性证伪，资金层面博弈加剧，预期偏差带来行情修复。产业层面，铁 | | | | | 矿全球发运环比大幅回升，港口库存小幅回升，但目前在高疏港的情况下 | | | 铁矿石 | 震荡偏弱 | 亦无明显累库压力。终端需求偏弱，高炉铁水小幅攀升，钢厂盈利比例处 | | | | | 于高位，现阶段钢厂主动减产动力不足。8 月下旬北方地区也有减产预期， | | | | | 但限产力度不及预期，短期铁矿石基本面矛盾有限，预计震荡偏弱运行。 | | | | | 煤焦：大商所调整焦煤期货主力合约交易限额，房地产和基建需求弱，焦 | | | | | 煤高位调整。产地煤矿整体恢复依然缓慢，上周煤矿精煤库存创 2024 年 | | | | | 3 月以来最低。与此同时，下游焦钢企业开工维持高位，线下部分煤矿受 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - For the粕类market, the strategy is neutral [3] - For the corn market, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The downstream demand for粕类is good, and the soybean meal market maintains a volatile trend. The results of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the price of粕类. The Brazilian premium is still strong, providing cost - side support. Attention should be paid to the situation of US soybeans and macro - policies [1][2] - For the corn market, the upward momentum of prices is insufficient, and demand is relatively stable. The market is focusing on the dynamics of new grain listings [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **粕类Market** - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2509 contract was 3160 yuan/ton, a change of - 1 yuan/ton (- 0.03%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2509 contract was 2627 yuan/ton, a change of + 23 yuan/ton (+ 0.88%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3090 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 10 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2650 yuan/ton, a decrease of - 70 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: ProFarmer's on - the - spot inspection showed that the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota was the highest since 2020, and the USDA estimated that the state's soybean yield per acre in 2025 would be higher than last year [1] - **Market Analysis** - The domestic soybean supply is still relatively loose, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly. The results of the anti - dumping investigation on rapeseed at the policy level have a significant impact on the price of粕类. The Sino - US trade policy still has uncertainties. The Brazilian premium is strong, providing cost - side support [2] **Corn Market** - **Market News and Important Data** - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2509 contract was 2170 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the corn starch 2509 contract was 2489 yuan/ton, a change of - 74 yuan/ton (- 2.89%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: ProFarmer's preliminary inspection showed that the corn yield prospects in Ohio and South Dakota were higher than last year and the three - year average. As of August 17, the corn good - to - excellent rate was 71%, the highest since 2016 [3] - **Market Analysis** - On the supply side in China, the channel inventories in Northeast and North China are relatively low, and traders are more active in selling. On the demand side, the start - up of deep - processing enterprises is consolidating, and inventories continue to decline. Feed enterprises' corn positions have decreased, and they mainly make sporadic replenishments. The use of new wheat is stable. Overall, the upward momentum of prices is insufficient, and the market is concerned about new grain listings [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Pro Farmer's crop tour indicates that the expected corn yields in Nebraska and Indiana in 2025 are higher than in 2024, and the average soybean pod numbers in Nebraska are higher while those in Indiana are lower than in 2024 [2] - Night trading of soybean and palm oil closed up, while rapeseed oil showed weak performance. The increase in August exports of Malaysian palm oil and concerns about Indonesia's production recovery and stricter DMO policy support palm oil prices, but short - term decline risks exist due to US biodiesel news [2] - Night trading of soybean and rapeseed meal closed down. Although the good growth of US soybeans strengthens the expectation of high yields, the significant reduction of US soybean planting area in the August supply - demand report provides strong support to US soybeans, and the price of domestic soybean meal is expected to remain firm [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Domestic Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut futures were 8414, 9554, 9828, 3160, 2667, and 8844 respectively, with changes of - 112, - 86, - 22, - 1, - 11, and 26, and percentage changes of - 1.31%, - 0.89%, - 3.15%, - 0.03%, - 0.41%, and 0.29% [1] - **International Futures**: The previous day's closing prices of BMD palm oil, CBOT soybeans, CBOT US soybean oil, and CBOT US soybean meal were 4448 (Ringgit/ton), 1033 (cents/bu), 52 (cents/lb), and 296 (dollars/ton) respectively, with changes of - 25, 2, - 0, and 1, and percentage changes of - 0.56%, 0.22%, - 0.83%, and 0.44% [1] Spot Market - **Domestic Spot Prices**: The current prices of Tianjin and Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil are 8580 and 8680 respectively, with percentage changes of - 1.72% and - 1.70%; the current prices of Zhangjiagang and Guangzhou 24° palm oil are 9540 and 9510 respectively, with percentage changes of - 2.05% and - 2.06%; the current prices of Zhangjiagang and Fangchenggang third - grade rapeseed oil are 9950 and 9880 respectively, with percentage changes of - 0.90% and - 0.60% [1] - **Spot Basis and Spreads**: For example, the spot basis of Tianjin first - grade soybean oil is 166, and the spot spread between Guangzhou first - grade soybean oil and 24° palm oil is - 900 [1] Import and Crushing Profit - The current import and crushing profits of near - month Malaysian palm oil, near - month US Gulf soybeans, near - month Brazilian soybeans, near - month US West soybeans, near - month Canadian crude rapeseed oil, and near - month Canadian rapeseed are - 242, - 178, - 63, 231, 905, and 882 respectively, showing different changes compared to the previous values [1] Warehouse Receipts - The current warehouse receipts of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and peanut are 15,310, 1,420, 3,487, 10,925, 8,633, and 0 respectively, with some unchanged compared to the previous values [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soft Commodity Sector - Sugar** - The import of sugar syrups and premixes in China increased month - on - month in July but decreased year - on - year, with the gap narrowing. The main import items have shifted, and the import volume under the 2106.906 item has hit new highs. - Due to factors such as reduced syrup imports and slow sugar imports in the first half of the year, although domestic sugar production increased in the 2024/25 season, the supply and demand of domestic sugar were strong, and enterprise inventory pressure was not significant. - Since the third quarter, the import of overseas raw sugar has accelerated, increasing the pressure on the supply side from processed sugar, and the import of syrups and premixes has also rebounded. However, concerns about the new Brazilian sugar season have supported the prices of raw sugar and Zhengzhou sugar futures. The market is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [3][4]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Pulp** - The spot pulp market has been weak recently, but the price of hardwood pulp has remained stable. Overseas pulp mill production cuts have provided some support, but the prices of downstream finished paper products have remained low. - The shipment volume of softwood pulp in June increased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline narrowed. The shipment volume of hardwood pulp remained at a high level, and exports to China were still strong. There have been some news of hardwood pulp production cuts, but the short - term impact is limited. - The pulp and paper industry lacks policy support, demand improvement is limited, and the supply pressure of hardwood pulp remains. However, the price of softwood pulp is below the cost of mainstream countries, and the price of hardwood pulp is close to the marginal cost, so the overall valuation is not high, which may support prices to some extent [5]. - **Soft Commodity Sector - Cotton** - In the international market, there is a multi - empty game. The steady listing of cotton in South America and Australia and the US tariff policy have put pressure on the market, but factors such as the decline in the US planting area, the slow progress of Indian cotton planting, and the temporary cancellation of Indian import tariffs have provided potential support. The new - season global cotton has changed from a slight inventory increase last month to a slight inventory decrease, narrowing the downward space for prices. - In the domestic market, there is a game between tight spot supply and weak downstream consumption. The extension of Sino - US tariffs has provided some support, but the suppression on the consumption side still exists, limiting the upward space for prices [6]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Apple** - The current focus is on the end of the old - season apples and the realization of the new - season production. The end of the old - season is in line with expectations, and there are some differences in the preliminary production estimates of the new - season, but the range is limited. The opening prices of early - maturing apples have increased year - on - year, providing some support to the market, but the sustainability needs to be monitored. The price of the Apple 10 contract is expected to fluctuate within a range [7]. - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Sector - Jujube** - On Wednesday, the agricultural product index fluctuated weakly, and the jujube futures price opened low and closed high. The price of the Jujube 2601 contract broke through the previous high and then fluctuated. Driven by the continuous reduction of spot inventory, the price of the 2509 contract also rose sharply, and the premium of futures over spot warehouse receipts increased. - In August, the inventory of jujubes decreased at an accelerated pace, the enthusiasm of terminal replenishment improved, and the dried fruit consumption is gradually entering the seasonal peak season. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the production of new - season jujubes in August [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - **Fresh Fruit and Nut Futures** - Apple 2510: Adopt an interval trading strategy. The fundamental changes are limited. The performance of early - maturing apples provides some support, but the strength is limited. The short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 7400 - 7500 (support) and 8300 - 8400 (resistance) [16]. - Jujube 2601: Reduce long positions. The overall market sentiment is strong, and the jujube enters the production - forming period in the third quarter, which is prone to price increases due to weather concerns. The support range is 11000 - 11200, and the resistance range is 11500 - 12000 [16]. - **Soft Commodity Futures** - Sugar 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. Concerns about Brazilian sugar supply are increasing, but the import pressure has been realized, and the upward movement of the futures price is under pressure. The support range is 5550 - 5570, and the resistance range is 5730 - 5750 [16]. - Pulp 2511: Temporarily wait and see. Softwood pulp prices are below the cost of mainstream producers, and there have been production cuts in hardwood pulp, which provides some short - term support. However, the weak finished paper market limits the upward space. The support range is 5100 - 5200, and the resistance range is 5400 - 5450 [16]. - Cotton 2601: Adopt an interval trading strategy. There is a game between tight spot supply and weak consumption expectations, and the short - term price is expected to continue to fluctuate within the range of 13500 - 13600 (support) and 14200 - 14300 (resistance) [16]. Second Part: Market News Changes - **Apple Market** - **Fundamental Information**: In June 2025, the export volume of fresh apples was about 37,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.55%. As of August 13, the inventory in apple cold storages in the main producing areas was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 75,800 tons. As of August 14, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 461,300 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 50,700 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 378,000 tons. Different institutions have different estimates of the new - season apple production, with a slight decrease estimated by Zhuochuang and a slight increase estimated by Mysteel [17]. - **Spot Market**: The mainstream transaction price in the Shandong production area was stable. Storage merchants were eager to sell, while buyers were cautious. The price of early - maturing apples was stable at high levels for good - quality products, with large price differences for poor - quality products. In the sales area, the overall arrival volume increased, demand was stable, and prices remained stable [18][19]. - **Jujube Market**: As of August 15, the physical inventory of 36 sample points was 9784 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.54%, and a year - on - year increase of 72.62%. The arrival volume in the sales area increased month - on - month. Driven by the downstream replenishment demand, the spot price showed a strong trend. The market trading atmosphere improved, and the purchasing enthusiasm for high - quality products increased [20]. - **Sugar Market**: In July 2025, China imported a total of 159,800 tons of sugar syrups and premixes, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons and a month - on - month increase of 44,000 tons. The import volume under the 210690 item reached 114,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of nearly 30% and a new high. As of noon, the spot market price of sugar in Guangxi was around 5950 yuan/ton, and the price in the Kunming market decreased slightly [22]. - **Pulp Market**: Although the domestic spot and futures prices of softwood pulp rebounded last week, the import price remained stable. Domestic pulp and paper integrated producers purchased a large amount of softwood and hardwood pulp, pushing up the prices of these two pulp types. Most buyers postponed their purchases of imported softwood pulp, waiting for the August quotes from major suppliers. Canadian and Nordic NBSK prices remained at 680 - 700 US dollars/ton, and Brazilian producers were seeking to increase the price of South American hardwood pulp by 20 US dollars/ton [25]. - **Cotton Market**: The cotton - picking progress in the main producing areas of Brazil continued to advance. As of August 15, the picking progress in Mato Grosso state reached 40.0%, a month - on - month increase of 13 percentage points but 17.0 percentage points behind the same period last year. As of August 19, the cumulative rainfall of the Indian southwest monsoon was 611.8, 1.8% higher than the long - term average. There was a high probability of heavy rainfall in many places. In July 2025, the export volume of cotton products increased year - on - year and month - on - month, but the export price decreased. The export volume and amount of cotton cloth also increased [26][27]. Third Part: Market Review - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of Apple 2510, Jujube 2601, Pulp 2511, and Cotton 2601 decreased, while the closing price of Sugar 2601 increased [28]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of apples remained unchanged month - on - month, the prices of jujubes and sugar decreased, the price of pulp remained stable, and the price of cotton decreased slightly [32]. Fourth Part: Basis Situation There is no specific text description of the basis situation, only references to relevant figures [40][41][45]. Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - The 10 - 1 spread of apples was 126, a week - on - week decrease of 34 and a year - on - year decrease of 2, and it is expected to fluctuate repeatedly. - The 9 - 1 spread of jujubes was - 1070, a week - on - week decrease of 1075 and a year - on - year decrease of 190, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 9 - 1 spread of sugar was 51, a week - on - week decrease of 4 and a year - on - year decrease of 280, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. - The 1 - 5 spread of cotton was 15, a week - on - week decrease of 5 and a year - on - year increase of 30, and it is expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see for all [47]. Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation There is no specific text description of the futures positioning situation, only references to relevant figures [54][57][61]. Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - The number of apple warehouse receipts was 0, with no change week - on - week and year - on - year. - The number of jujube warehouse receipts was 9832, a week - on - week increase of 337 and a year - on - year increase of 477. - The number of sugar warehouse receipts was 16244, a week - on - week decrease of 242 and a year - on - year increase of 889. - The number of pulp warehouse receipts was 252639, a week - on - week decrease of 1213 and a year - on - year decrease of 228502. - The number of cotton warehouse receipts was 7455, a week - on - week decrease of 141 and a year - on - year decrease of 2328 [76]. Eighth Part: Option - related Data There is no specific text description of the option - related data, only references to relevant figures [78][80][81].

行业 豆粕 日期 2025 年 8 月 21 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 前结算价 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 较 7 | 气候中性预期，美豆种植天气基本顺利。国内大豆及豆粕累库阶段，8 月累库速度 月预计有所放缓。中美贸易关税成为豆粕下档关键成本支撑。本周美农公布 8 | | 豆粕 | 短期偏多 | 月供需报告，意外大幅调低美豆种植面积，但调增了单产，导致最终美豆产量及期 末库存环比下调，产量环比调减 116 万吨，利多美豆及国内豆粕。本周 18 日-21 日 | | ★ | | 美民间机构开展美豆调研数据，截止目前，除印第安那州外，结荚数均高于去年同 | | | | 期。豆粕暂维持偏多震荡，但追多需谨慎。关注最终面积及产量数据能否给出新指 | | | 引。 | | | | | 全球菜籽产量同比恢复，但加籽新年单产存在调减风险，目前已经进入零星收割阶 | | | | 段。国内油厂菜籽环比去库菜粕环比去库，商业库存去库，但同比依然维持较高水 | | | | 平，对盘面存在压力。100%加菜粕进口关税，菜籽反倾销保证金，对菜粕价格构 | | 菜粕 | 短期偏多 | 成较强支持。现货市场方面，豆粕对菜粕消费替代较大，消费预期一般。高库 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: August 21, 2025 - Report Source: Guotai Junan Futures - Report Theme: Commodity Research Morning Report - Agricultural Products Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Strong fundamental support, consider going long on macro pullbacks [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: Insufficient driver from US soybeans, expected to trade in a high - level range [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Likely to trade in a range as overnight US soybeans edged up and rapeseed meal was weak [2][8] - **Soybean No.1**: Expected to trade weakly [2][8] - **Corn**: Expected to trend weakly [2][11] - **Sugar**: Expected to trade with a slight upward bias [2][14] - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the situation of new cotton listings [2][18] - **Eggs**: Focus on the rhythm of old hen culling [2][25] - **Hogs**: Wait for spot market confirmation at the end of the month [2][27] - **Peanuts**: Near - term contracts are stronger than long - term contracts [2][33] Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Tracking**: Palm oil futures prices showed a decline during the day and a rise at night, with a day - closing price of 9,486 yuan/ton (-1.06%) and a night - closing price of 9,560 yuan/ton (+0.78%). Soybean oil futures also declined during the day and at night, with a day - closing price of 8,442 yuan/ton (-1.31%) and a night - closing price of 8,418 yuan/ton (-0.28%) [4] - **Macro and Industry News**: US market restrictions have limited direct impact on the Malaysian palm oil industry. Malaysian palm oil exports from August 1 - 20 increased compared to the same period last month, with Amspec reporting a 17.5% increase and ITS reporting a 13.61% increase [5][6] - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 0 [7] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamental Tracking**: CBOT soybeans and soybean meal futures rose overnight. In the domestic market, soybean meal spot prices were stable to slightly up, and soybean No.1 futures showed a weak trend [8] - **Macro and Industry News**: On August 20, CBOT soybeans followed the rise of soybean meal. The annual Midwest crop inspection is ongoing, with varying soybean pod numbers in different states [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend intensity of 0 [10] Corn - **Fundamental Tracking**: Corn futures prices declined, with C2509 at 2,226 yuan/ton (-1.33%) and C2511 at 2,170 yuan/ton (-0.28%). Spot prices in various regions also showed a downward trend [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: Corn prices in the north and south showed different trends, with northern prices stable and southern prices weakening [12] - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [13] Sugar - **Fundamental Tracking**: The raw sugar price was 16.57 cents/pound, the mainstream spot price was 5,990 yuan/ton, and the futures main - contract price was 5,676 yuan/ton [14] - **Macro and Industry News**: Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - evaluated, and India's monsoon rainfall has weakened. China's sugar imports in July increased [14] - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of 1 [17] Cotton - **Fundamental Tracking**: Cotton futures prices declined slightly during the day and rose slightly at night. Spot prices were generally stable, with some regions showing minor declines [18] - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was light, and the cotton yarn and fabric markets had limited improvement [19] - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [23] Eggs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Egg futures prices showed mixed trends, with the 2509 contract at 3,000 yuan/500 kg (-0.76%) and the 2601 contract at 3,490 yuan/500 kg (+0.23%) [25] - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [25] Hogs - **Fundamental Tracking**: Hog spot and futures prices showed different trends. The market pressure is high due to increased supply and limited demand [29][31] - **Market Logic**: In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increased, and the demand growth was limited. The 9 - month contract is still at a premium to the warehouse - receipt cost [31] - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of - 1 [30] Peanuts - **Fundamental Tracking**: Peanut futures prices declined, with PK510 at 8,004 yuan/ton (-0.40%) and PK511 at 7,782 yuan/ton (-0.46%). Spot prices were stable [33] - **Spot Market Focus**: New peanuts in some regions are gradually being listed, with limited supply and stable prices [34] - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [35]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Variety | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Oscillating Bullish | | Protein Meal | Oscillating | | Corn and Starch | Oscillating Bearish | | Hogs | Oscillating | | Natural Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Synthetic Rubber | Oscillating Bullish | | Cotton | Oscillating Bullish | | Sugar | Oscillating Bearish in the long - term, Oscillating in the short - term | | Pulp | Oscillating | | Logs | Oscillating Bearish | [171] 2. Core Views The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs. It assesses the current market conditions, influencing factors, and offers mid - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Short - term focus on the effectiveness of the lower technical support. - **Logic**: Technical selling pressure led to drops in US soybeans and soybean oil on Tuesday. The market is waiting for the Fed Chair's speech, with the US dollar oscillating stronger and crude oil prices falling. US soybean growth is good, and the USDA August report anticipates a record - high yield. There are uncertainties in US soybean exports, and the demand for US soybean oil from biodiesel has decreased this year. Domestic soybean imports are expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory of domestic soybean oil may peak. Palm oil is in the production season, and there is a high probability of inventory accumulation. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bullish [5]. 3.1.2 Protein Meal - **View**: The price is oscillating narrowly at a high level, waiting for the results of the field inspection. - **Logic**: Internationally, US soybean is expected to oscillate around 1050 cents. Domestically, there is a consensus on near - month inventory pressure and far - month supply shortage. Some oil mills will reduce their operating rates, and the import profit is rising. - **Outlook**: The basis may bottom out and rebound. It is recommended that oil mills sell on rallies, and downstream enterprises buy basis contracts or price at low levels. Hold long positions at 2900 - 2910 and add positions on dips [6]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: The sentiment is bearish, and spot and near - month prices are falling rapidly. - **Logic**: Domestic corn prices are generally falling. The supply of old - crop corn is tight, but the purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The new - crop corn production is normal, and foreign supply is abundant. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearish in the short - term, with supply pressure easing after the new - crop harvest [7][8]. 3.1.4 Hogs - **View**: Stricter transportation policies have weakened the futures price. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned slaughter volume in August has increased. In the medium - term, the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase. In the long - term, anti - involution policies may lead to capacity reduction. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. There is inventory pressure in the short - term, and the far - month prices may be affected by capacity reduction expectations [9]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The weakening of commodity sentiment dragged down the rubber price. - **Logic**: Although the rubber price dropped due to weakening sentiment, it gradually recovered in the afternoon. The rubber is entering the seasonal rising period, and there are many speculative themes. The short - term supply may decrease, and the demand is rigid. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bullish in the short - term [11][12]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: Positive news supported the price rebound after the decline. - **Logic**: The BR price initially followed the market down but rebounded after the news of petrochemical industry reform. The price is mainly affected by natural rubber and the short - term tight supply of butadiene. - **Outlook**: The butadiene price may rise slightly, and the market may oscillate bullishly [13][14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: Supported by fundamentals, the cotton price corrected during the session but was relatively resistant to decline. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity atmosphere, the cotton price corrected at night but rebounded during the day. The commercial inventory is low, and the demand is improving, but there are also factors restricting the price increase. - **Outlook**: Oscillating between 13500 - 14300 yuan/ton [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The increasing supply has put pressure on the sugar price. - **Logic**: In the international market, Brazil's sugar production is increasing. In the domestic market, the import volume in July reached a high level. The supply is increasing, but the downward space is limited in the short - term. - **Outlook**: Oscillating bearish in the long - term, oscillating between 5600 - 5900 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The price change is small, moving within a range. - **Logic**: The pulp price continued to correct, and the spot price of softwood pulp declined. The supply and demand of wood pulp have both positive and negative factors. - **Outlook**: Oscillating. The price of hardwood pulp may drive the futures price, and the main contract is expected to move between 5100 - 5500 [18]. 3.1.10 Logs - **View**: Try to go long on far - month contracts at low prices. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of logs are marginally improving, with reduced arrival pressure and inventory depletion. However, there are also negative factors such as weak demand and delivery pressure. - **Outlook**: Oscillating between 790 - 840 [19][20]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring The report lists the data monitoring of various varieties including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, cotton, sugar, pulp, and logs, but no specific data analysis is provided in the given text [22][41][54]. 3.3 Rating Standards The report defines rating standards such as bullish, oscillating bullish, oscillating, oscillating bearish, and bearish, with a time - cycle of 2 - 12 weeks and a standard deviation calculation method [171]. 3.4 Commodity Index On August 20, 2025, the comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all declined. The agricultural product index also declined, with a year - to - date increase of 2.94% [172][173][175].

美国农业部20日报告向哥伦比亚出口10万吨美国玉米，向墨西哥出口12.57万吨玉米。 新华财经纽约8月20日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价20日全线上涨。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.04美元，比前一交易日上涨 0.75美分，涨幅为0.19%；小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.28美元，比前一交易日上涨7美分，涨幅为 1.34%；大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.36美元，比前一交易日上涨2.25美分，涨幅为0.22%。 芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）农产品期价当天小幅上涨，小麦期价在基金空头回补的带动下领涨，玉 米、大豆期货跟随小麦价格上涨。美国海湾小麦目前报价接近每吨225美元，为五年来最低。市场正在 等待Pro Farmer Crop Tour发布美国伊利诺伊州、艾奥瓦州单产数据。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国能源信息署20日发布的报告显示，美国上周生产3.15亿加仑乙醇，同比下降2%；乙醇库存上升至 9.53亿加仑，同比下降4%；当周美国原油日消耗量为884万桶，下降4%。 天气预报显示，一低压槽南移横跨美国中部，使美国中西部和三角洲地区气温大幅下降 ...