农产品期货

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【环球财经】芝加哥农产品期价1日全线上涨
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-02 03:04
乌克兰将2026年冬小麦播种面积预估上调9%,至至少1280万英亩。新增小麦播种面积将使乌克兰2026 年冬小麦产量达到2500万吨,出口供应增加200万吨。 美国能源信息署1日发布的数据显示,美国上周乙醇产量为2.93亿加仑,较前一周减少800万加仑;乙醇 库存减少3000万加仑至9.86亿加仑;上周美国原油日消费量为852万加仑,与去年持平。 (文章来源:新华财经) 当天,芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.17美元,比前一交易日上涨1 美分,涨幅为0.24%;小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.09美元,比前一交易日上涨1.25美分,涨幅为 0.25%;大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.13美元,比前一交易日上涨11.25美分,涨幅为1.12%。 经过几天下跌,芝加哥期货交易所农产品期价当天反弹上涨。 随着价格逐渐下跌,农产品期价基本面比市场反应的更为悲观。全球小麦期货价格已远超季节性低点形 成的时间,预计玉米、大豆季节性低点将出现在收获季的后半段。除非南美出现严重天气问题,否则收 获季后的任何反弹都将较为温和。 随着收割工作向北部和西部推进,美国玉米、大豆单产在提高。市场分析机构预计 ...
ICE农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌,原糖期货跌2.71%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-10-01 23:01
每经AI快讯,当地时间10月1日,洲际交易所(ICE)农产品期货主力合约收盘多数下跌,原糖期货跌 2.71%报16.15美分/磅,棉花期货跌0.24%报65.61美分/磅,可可期货跌0.87%报6690.00美元/吨,咖啡期 货涨2.57%报384.50美分/磅。 (文章来源:每日经济新闻) ...
【环球财经】芝加哥农产品期价9月30日全线下跌
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 01:36
新华财经纽约9月30日电(记者徐静)芝加哥期货交易所玉米、小麦和大豆期价9月30日全线下跌。 当天,芝加哥期货交易所玉米市场交投最活跃的12月合约收于每蒲式耳4.16美元,比前一交易日下跌6 美分,跌幅为1.42%;小麦12月合约收于每蒲式耳5.08美元,比前一交易日下跌11.5美分,跌幅为 2.21%;大豆11月合约收于每蒲式耳10.02美元,比前一交易日下跌8.75美分,跌幅为0.87%。 美国农业部发布的库存报告显示玉米、小麦供应增加,利空农产品期价。 报告显示,2024-2025年度美国玉米期末库存为15.32亿蒲式耳,较9月预测高出2.07亿蒲式耳。 报告预计美国小麦库存为21.20亿蒲式耳,比之前预测高1.30亿蒲式耳;2025年美国小麦产量为19.85亿 蒲式耳,比之前预测高5800万蒲式耳。 报告将2024-2025年度美国大豆期末库存下调至3.16亿蒲式耳,比之前预测减少了1400万蒲式耳;将 2024年美国大豆产量预测上调800万蒲式耳至43.74亿蒲式耳。报告预计2024-2025年度美国大豆总需求 量为43.31亿蒲式耳,2024-2025年度美国大豆最终出口量为18.83亿蒲式耳。 ...
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌,小麦期货跌2.31%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-30 23:09
(文章来源:每日经济新闻) 每经AI快讯,当地时间9月30日,芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌,大 豆期货跌0.96%报1000.75美分/蒲式耳,玉米期货跌1.30%报416.00美分/蒲式耳,小麦期货跌2.31%报 507.50美分/蒲式耳。 ...
现货供应超预期,豆粕维持震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 05:28
粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面,昨日收盘豆粕2601合约2933元/吨,较前日变动-4元/吨,幅度-0.14%;菜粕2601合约2416元/吨,较前日 变动+11元/吨,幅度+0.46%。现货方面,天津地区豆粕现货价格2970元/吨,较前日变动+0元/吨,现货基差M01+37, 较前日变动+4;江苏地区豆粕现货2880元/吨,较前日变动+0元/吨,现货基差M01-53,较前日变动+4;广东地区 豆粕现货价格2900元/吨,较前日变动跌+0元/吨,现货基差M01-33,较前日变动+4。福建地区菜粕现货价格2580 元/吨,较前日变动+0元/吨,现货基差RM01+164,较前日变动-11。 近期市场资讯,9月26日,马托格罗索州农业经济所发布的一份调查显示,截至本周五,巴西马托格罗索州2025/26 年度大豆播种进度触及5.97%,速度远快于去年同期。美国农业部周四公布的出口销售报告显示,9月18日止当周, 美国当前市场年度大豆出口销售净增72.45万吨,市场预估为净增60-160万吨。 市场分析 整体来看,当前新季美豆收割正在进行中,近期优良率略有下滑,伴随着本年度种植面积的下降,整体产量同比 预计有所 ...
蛋白数据日报-20250930
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 03:19
国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询号: Z0021658 从业资格号: F03110419 2025/9/30 | 指标 | | 9月29日 | 涨跌 | | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 日照 | 87 -3 | -26 -26 | 1600 1200 400 | こここで 18/19 ----- 22/23 | ====== 19/20 == | == - 24/25 | == - 25/26 | | | 天津 | 67 | | | | | | | | | | | | 800 | | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 (对主力合约) | 张家港 | 7 | | -400 | | | | | | | | | | 01/21 | 02/21 03/24 04/24 | 05/25 06/25 07/26 08/26 09/26 | | 10/27 11/27 12/28 | | | 东莞 | -3 | -6 | | | M1-M5 | | | | | | ...
国泰君安期货商品研究晨报:农产品-20250930
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:48
Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Views - Palm oil: Short - term rebound height is limited, recommend light - position trading during the holiday [2][4]. - Soybean oil: US soybeans are in a weak oscillation, and the upside space for soybean oil is difficult to open [2][4]. - Soybean meal: Oscillating, recommend avoiding risks during the long holiday [2][13]. - Soybean: Oscillating [2][12]. - Corn: Pay attention to the listing of new grain [2][15]. - Sugar: Narrow - range consolidation [2][20]. - Cotton: Both domestic and international cotton futures are weak [2][25]. - Eggs: Light - position trading during the holiday [2][29]. - Pigs: The bottom of the spot market has not appeared [2][31]. - Peanuts: Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas [2][36]. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamental Data**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 9,234 yuan/ton (-0.02%), and night - session was 9,214 yuan/ton (-0.22%); soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 8,150 yuan/ton (-0.15%), and night - session was 8,120 yuan/ton (-0.37%) [5]. - **News**: Malaysian palm oil inventory is expected to decline to about 1.7 million tons by the end of the year due to seasonal production slowdown and increased exports. MPOB urges the government to increase the 2026 appropriation for oil palm replanting to 280 million ringgit [6]. - **Trend Intensity**: Palm oil and soybean oil trend intensities are both - 1 [10]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - **Fundamental Data**: DCE Soybean 2511's daily - session closing price was 3938 yuan/ton (-0.05%), and night - session was 3926 yuan/ton (-0.13%); DCE Soybean Meal 2601's daily - session closing price was 2933 yuan/ton (-0.54%), and night - session was 2931 yuan/ton (-0.20%) [12]. - **News**: On September 29, CBOT soybean futures closed slightly lower due to expected high yields in the US and insufficient Chinese demand [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Soybean and soybean meal trend intensities are both 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamental Data**: C2511's daily - session closing price was 2,159 yuan/ton (-0.78%), and night - session was 2,151 yuan/ton (-0.37%); C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,135 yuan/ton (-0.09%), and night - session was 2,128 yuan/ton (-0.33%) [15]. - **News**: Northern corn port - collection prices are 2220 - 2240 yuan/ton, and container port - collection prices for new grain are 2240 - 2260 yuan/ton [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn trend intensity is 0 [19]. Sugar - **Fundamental Data**: Raw sugar price is 15.92 cents/pound (0.09), mainstream spot price is 5830 yuan/ton (-10), and futures main - contract price is 5479 yuan/ton (1) [20]. - **News**: Brazilian sugar production in the second half of August increased by 18% year - on - year. Conab lowered the 25/26 Brazilian sugar production forecast to 44.5 million tons [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar trend intensity is 0 [23]. Cotton - **Fundamental Data**: CF2601's daily - session closing price was 13,350 yuan/ton (-0.41%), and night - session was 13245 yuan/ton (-0.79%); ICE US cotton 12 was 65.4 cents/pound (-1.40%) [25]. - **News**: The new - cotton pre - sale quotes in the domestic cotton spot market continue to increase, and the cotton yarn market's trading atmosphere is average [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton trend intensity is 0 [28]. Eggs - **Fundamental Data**: Egg 2510's closing price was 2,918 yuan/500 kg (-1.15%), and Egg 2601's closing price was 3,352 yuan/500 kg (-0.24%) [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Egg trend intensity is 0 [29]. Pigs - **Fundamental Data**: Henan's spot price is 12430 yuan/ton (-150), Sichuan's is 11900 yuan/ton (-200), and Guangdong's is 12710 yuan/ton (-200) [33]. - **Trend Intensity**: Pig trend intensity is - 1 [34]. Peanuts - **Fundamental Data**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts is 8,600 yuan/ton (+100), PK510's closing price is 7,800 yuan/ton (0.21%), and PK511's is 7,822 yuan/ton (0.49%) [36]. - **News**: In the spot market, peanut prices in different regions are generally stable, affected by weather and supply [37]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanut trend intensity is 0 [40].
广发期货《农产品》日报-20250930
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-09-30 01:34
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of Each Report Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - Argentina restarted export taxes, but China has purchased multiple shipments of Argentine soybeans. US soybeans lack substantial positive factors, with high yields and limited Chinese demand, expected to fluctuate in a low - range. Domestic soybean meal supply is abundant, with high soybean and oil - mill soybean meal inventories. The basis is difficult to improve under supply pressure. The increase in Argentine soybean purchases eases the year - end and Q1 2026 gap, and the 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal may continue to weaken [2]. Pork - The market supply rhythm is continuously recovering. Near the Double Festival, the demand for large - weight pig slaughter has increased, resulting in both supply and demand growth. Spot quotes are chaotic, and price drops have widened in some areas. In the medium term, demand is slowly recovering, but supply has clearly recovered, and demand is weak. Pay attention to the adjustment of retail farmers' pig weights after the National Day. The futures market is cautious about speculating on expectations, market confidence is weak, and long - term bullish funds have withdrawn. The market is expected to fluctuate sideways and follow the spot market with small fluctuations [4]. Edible Oils - For palm oil, due to the release of end - of - month fundamental data and concerns about year - end inventory growth, crude palm oil futures may fall below 4400 ringgit and continue to decline. There is a possibility of seeking support at 4200 ringgit after breaking through the annual support at 4350 ringgit. In the domestic market, there is a risk of domestic palm oil futures following the downward trend of Malaysian palm oil, especially a potential catch - up decline after the National Day holiday. For soybean oil, the concentrated harvest of US soybeans and weak exports may lead to a decline in CBOT soybeans, which will drag down CBOT soybean oil. Domestically, pre - holiday stocking has ended, and the market is quiet. Factory soybean oil production may accumulate during the holiday, and although downstream replenishment after the holiday may ease inventory pressure, soybean oil inventory remains high, which may drag down the spot basis [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - In the Northeast, the supply of new - season corn is increasing, and the opening price is slightly higher than last year, with farmers being more willing to sell. Prices may rebound slightly in the short term but are expected to decline as the harvest progresses. On the demand side, deep - processing and feed enterprises mainly meet their rigid needs and have seasonal replenishment needs. In the short term, the market supply is increasing, and the futures market is expected to fluctuate weakly at a low level. Pay attention to the new - grain purchase rhythm and farmers' selling attitudes [7]. Sugar - In the short term, raw sugar prices are dragged down by rapid Brazilian production and demand before the October contract expiration. There is an oversupply in the trade flow due to high sugar production and inventory during the Brazilian crushing peak. Pay attention to the pressure relief after the decrease in cane crushing volume, the reduction in sugar - making ratio, and the gradual end of the crushing season from September to October. Overall, there are limited positive factors for raw sugar, and it is expected to remain in a weak bottom - sideways pattern, with a reference range of 15 - 17 cents per pound. The new sugar - making season has started in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang, and new sugar is expected to be on the market this week, putting pressure on the spot market. Domestic market trading sentiment is cautious, and after the Double Festival stocking, the overall trading atmosphere is light. The market is expected to remain weak [11]. Cotton - On the supply side, the willingness to scramble for seed cotton is weak, and new cotton can be hedged at a reasonable price, so there is significant hedging pressure on cotton prices in the medium term. On the demand side, the downstream textile industry has little confidence in the peak season, and demand is weaker than the same period in previous years, providing limited support. Overall, domestic cotton prices may face pressure in the medium term [12]. Eggs - In recent days, traders' risk - aversion has increased, and their purchases in the origin have decreased. Weakening demand may drag down egg prices. Abundant egg supply will also have a negative impact on the egg market. After a slight decline in egg prices, traders may make small - batch replenishments, which may support egg prices. Egg prices are expected to remain sideways at the bottom in the short term but face pressure in the medium term [16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean, Meal, and Related Products - **Prices**: Jiangsu soybean meal spot price is 2940 yuan/ton, unchanged; M2601 futures price is 2933 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan or 0.14%. Jiangsu rapeseed meal spot price is 2500 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or 0.40%; RM2601 futures price is 2416 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.46%. Harbin soybean spot price is 3880 yuan/ton, unchanged; soybean No. 1 main - contract futures price is 3938 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.08% [2]. - **Spreads**: The basis of M2601 is 7 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 133.33%. The basis of RM2601 is 84 yuan/ton, down 21 yuan or 20%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean meal is 190 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan or 2.15%. The 01 - 05 spread of rapeseed meal is 93 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 19.23% [2]. Pork - **Futures Indicators**: The main - contract basis is 255, up 280 or 1120%. The price of Live Hogs 2511 is 12295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan or 2.23%. The price of Live Hogs 2601 is 12785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan or 2.40% [4]. - **Spot Prices**: Henan spot price is 12550 yuan/ton, unchanged; Shandong is 12850 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; Sichuan is 12050 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [4]. - **Industry Indicators**: The daily slaughter volume of sample points is 169930, up 4751 or 2.88%. The weekly white - strip price is 0, down 19.8 or 100%. The weekly self - breeding profit is - 74 yuan/head, down 49.7 or 203.23% [4]. Edible Oils - **Prices**: The spot price of Jiangsu first - grade soybean oil is 8400 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.83%; Y2601 futures price is 8150 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or 0.15%. The spot price of Guangdong 24 - degree palm oil is 9110 yuan/ton, down 120 yuan or 1.30%; P2601 futures price is 9234 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.02% [6]. - **Spreads**: The basis of Y2601 is 250 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan or 18.83%. The basis of P2601 is - 124 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan or 1966.67%. The 01 - 05 spread of soybean oil is 238 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan or 0.85% [6]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Corn**: The price of Corn 2511 is 2159 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan or 0.87%. The basis is 121 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan or 18.63%. The 11 - 3 spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 62.96% [7]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of Corn Starch 2511 is 2483 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan or 0.12%. The basis is 17 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan or 3.75%. The 11 - 3 spread is 21 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan or 31.25% [7]. Sugar - **Futures Market**: The price of Sugar 2601 is 5479 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.02%. The price of Sugar 2605 is 5437 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.09%. The 1 - 5 spread is 42 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 16.67% [11]. - **Spot Market**: The Nanning spot price is 5780 yuan/ton, unchanged. The difference between imported Brazilian sugar (in - quota) and Nanning sugar is - 1326 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan or 2.14% [11]. - **Industry Situation**: The cumulative national sugar production is 1116.21 million tons, up 119.89 million tons or 12.03%. The cumulative national sugar sales are 1000 million tons, up 114 million tons or 12.87% [11]. Cotton - **Futures Market**: The price of Cotton 2605 is 13540 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.15%. The price of Cotton 2601 is 13555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.11%. The 5 - 1 spread is - 15 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan or 175% [12]. - **Spot Market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton is 15024 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.31%. The difference between CC Index: 3128B and FC Index: M: 1% is 1726 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 7.5% [12]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory is 117.59 million tons, down 30.58 million tons or 20.6%. Industrial inventory is 86.21 million tons, down 3.02 million tons or 3.4% [12]. Eggs - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The price of Egg 11 contract is 3016 yuan/500KG, down 20 yuan or 0.66%. The price of Egg 10 contract is 2918 yuan/500KG, down 22 yuan or 0.75%. The egg - producing area price is 3.44 yuan/jin, down 0.10 yuan or 2.76% [15]. - **Related Indicators**: The egg - to - feed ratio is 2.85, up 0.21 or 7.95%. The breeding profit is 3.20 yuan/feather, up 12.31 yuan or 135.13% [15].
CBOT农产品期货主力合约收盘全线下跌,大豆期货跌0.44%
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen· 2025-09-29 22:05
Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) agricultural futures contracts closed lower across the board on September 29, indicating a downward trend in the agricultural commodities market [1] Group 1: Soybean Futures - Soybean futures fell by 0.44%, closing at 1009.25 cents per bushel [1] Group 2: Corn Futures - Corn futures decreased by 0.12%, ending at 421.50 cents per bushel [1] Group 3: Wheat Futures - Wheat futures dropped by 0.19%, closing at 518.75 cents per bushel [1]
银河期货粕类日报-20250929
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-09-29 13:46
大宗商品研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 9 月 29 日 【粕类日报】市场变动有限 盘面窄幅震荡 研究员:陈界正 行情回顾:今日美豆盘面整体以震荡运行为主,市场短期缺乏新增题材,整体以震荡运 行为主,由于美豆前期跌幅已经相对较深,近期进一步下跌空间已经相对收窄,南美市场压 力影响好转,预计近期仍以震荡运行为主。国内豆粕同样以小幅震荡为主,阿根廷出口压力 有所好转,国内后续供应紧张情况好转,盘面整体仍有一定压力。菜粕今日同样以震荡运行 为主。豆菜粕价差较此前变动有限。豆粕盘面月间价差继续小幅回落,后续供应紧张情况好 转。菜粕盘面月间价差同样呈现小幅回落,整体影响有限。 基本面:美豆旧作平衡表结转库存小幅上调,旧作出口方面基本已经完成,同时压榨方 面完成情况也相对良好。新作产量方面对单产进行了小幅下调,但因种植面积进行了小幅上 调,整体供应端略有增加,库存较前期小幅上调。由于当前价格对于美豆库存体现并不明显, 因此盘面回落空间相对有限,后续仍然主要受出口方面影响,如果美豆出口继续缺乏明显提 振,则后续可能仍将表现出比较明显的下行压力,但在整体出口空间有限的背景下,预计盘 面反弹空间也相对受限。南美 ...