缓。盘面来看，前期走强后，近日玉米期价略有回落，短期观望。 | 观点总结（ | 随着新季玉米上市量逐步增加，原料玉米供应较为充裕，行业开机率持续回升，供应端压力增加。不过，当前供需结构良好，下游 | | --- | --- | | 淀粉） | 需求尚可，企业走货顺畅。截至11月19日，全国玉米淀粉企业淀粉库存总量110.9万吨，较上周下降2.40万吨，周降幅2.12%，月 | | 重点关注 | 周四、周五mysteel玉米周度消耗以及淀粉企业开机、库存情况 | 玉米系产业日报 2025-11-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | -7 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 吨) 玉米月间价差(1-5):(日,元/吨) 1 玉米淀粉月间价差(1-3):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -13588 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2168 -69 932364 | | 2473 0 219992 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for each specific variety, it gives the following outlooks: - Oils and fats: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. - Protein meal: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, and CBOT soybeans are expected to fluctuate, with an expected upward - trending range - bound movement for soybean and rapeseed meal [10]. - Corn and starch: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [12]. - Hogs: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend [15]. - Natural rubber: Expected to fluctuate [16]. - Synthetic rubber: Expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to short at high prices [20]. - Cotton: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend [21]. - Sugar: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term [22]. - Pulp: Expected to fluctuate [24]. - Offset paper: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. - Logs: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various agricultural products, including oils and fats, protein meal, corn, hogs, rubber, cotton, sugar, pulp, offset paper, and logs. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, international trade, weather, and policies to provide short - term and medium - to - long - term outlooks for each product [9][10][12]. 3. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Logic**: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans declined due to technical resistance, while CBOT soybean oil rose. The domestic oil market showed a differentiated trend, with palm oil and soybean oil being stronger. The market is waiting for US economic data, and there are uncertainties in the Fed's monetary policy and Russian oil supply. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the planting progress in Brazil and Argentina is normal. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is relatively high, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil increased in November, while exports decreased. The consumption of palm oil for biodiesel in Indonesia increased, and its inventory remained low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of domestic rapeseed is currently tight, but it is expected to increase later [2][9]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil and palm oil are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, while rapeseed oil is expected to fluctuate [9]. Protein Meal - **Logic**: The USDA's supply - demand report lowered the export forecast for US soybeans. The premium of US soybeans over South American soybeans is high, but Chinese purchases have returned. The crushing volume of US soybeans in October reached a new high. South American soybean sowing is progressing smoothly. In China, the import profit of soybeans has recovered, and there are expectations of soybean auctions. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in recent years, and the sales and pick - up volume of soybean meal have increased. The soybean inventory of oil mills is high, and the soybean meal inventory is seasonally decreasing but still high year - on - year [10]. - **Outlook**: CBOT soybeans and Dalian soybean meal are expected to fluctuate. Soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate within a range with a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 3000 [10]. Corn and Starch - **Logic**: The domestic corn spot price has a narrow fluctuation range, with a "strong in the south, weak in the north" pattern in ports. On the supply side, cold weather has led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. In the demand side, the demand for feed grains in the sales area is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the China National Grain and Oil Information Center continues [12][13]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, as the bullish factors have not been fully digested, and the spot price is expected to remain strong [13]. Hogs - **Logic**: The supply of hogs is abundant, and there is sporadic bacon - curing in the south. In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days is slow. In the medium term, the supply of hogs in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the sow production capacity is showing signs of reduction [14]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend. The near - term contracts face high - capacity realization and post - poned inventory from secondary fattening, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction [15]. Natural Rubber - **Logic**: The market sentiment is currently strong, but there are no new marginal bullish factors from the fundamental perspective. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, which supports the market to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the past two weeks, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is still okay after the price decline [16][17]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have limited variables, and the rubber price is expected to continue to fluctuate in a wide range with high elasticity. There is no obvious trend in the short term [17]. Synthetic Rubber - **Logic**: The BR futures showed a volatile trend and rose rapidly before the close, which was affected by overseas device news. The main reason for the support of the futures is the relatively stable trading of the raw material butadiene. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. Some downstream enterprises have made low - price replenishments, and the market has received short - term bottom support [20]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and the raw material side are under great pressure. It is recommended to short at high prices before there are obvious supply - demand contradictions in butadiene [20]. Cotton - **Logic**: In October, the Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded due to the downward adjustment of production expectations and the firm purchase price of Xinjiang cotton seeds. In November, the driving force for the rebound weakened, and the supply pressure increased as the production expectation was raised again and the listing peak season arrived. The downstream demand also weakened seasonally [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term, there is a risk of correction but limited space; long - term, it is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend. It is advisable to buy at low prices [21]. Sugar - **Logic**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures fell again this week. In the medium - to - long term, both domestic and international sugar prices have downward drivers. The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season. The new sugar pressing in the Northern Hemisphere has started, and the supply pressure will gradually increase [22]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a downward trend in the medium - to - long term. It is recommended to short at high prices, and the short - term price range is expected to be between 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton [22]. Pulp - **Logic**: The pulp futures continued to decline, mainly because the long - side funds left after the price reached above 5500. There is an obvious position - shifting behavior this week, which has accelerated the exit of funds from the 01 contract. The supply - demand relationship has no serious contradictions, and both supply and demand are high [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the pulp futures are expected to fluctuate widely [24]. Offset Paper - **Logic**: The tender for offset paper has limited support. The offset paper futures have followed the pulp to weaken, but the overall fundamentals are still at the bottom in November. In the short term, factors such as paper mills' price - holding intention, downstream printing factories' rigid demand, and the limited driving force of tender prices affect the price. In December, the "volume - boosting price - cutting" by dealers may drag down the market, and in the first quarter of 2026, the market is expected to enter a sideways - consolidation phase [24]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend following pulp [24]. Logs - **Logic**: The log futures rebounded slightly in the first half of the week and then weakened again. The supply pressure is expected to ease seasonally in the first quarter of next year, but there is still long - term supply pressure. The demand is expected to be weak and stable in 2026, with a seasonal decline in the first quarter. The inventory is expected to decline slowly in the short term and then increase seasonally [27]. - **Outlook**: Expected to fluctuate at a low level [28]. Commodity Index - The comprehensive index, characteristic index, and sector index of CITICS Futures showed different degrees of increase on November 19, 2025. The agricultural product index increased by 0.07% on that day, decreased by 1.18% in the past five days, increased by 0.52% in the past month, and decreased by 2.70% since the beginning of the year [186][187].

农产品团队 | 作者： | 王亮亮 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F03096306 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0017427 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578697 | | 作者： | 侯芝芳 | | 从业资格证号： | F3042058 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0014216 | | 联系方式： | 010-68578922 | | 作者： | 宋从志 | | 从业资格证号： | F03095512 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0020712 | | 联系方式： | 18001936153 | | 作者： | 辛旋 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064981 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0016876 | | 联系方式： | -- | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年11月19日星期三 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 期货研究院 养殖油脂产业链日度策略报告 摘要 豆油：周三，豆油主力01合约继续上涨，午后收于8356（日变动3 6或0.43%）。国际柴油价格拉涨，叠加美豆压榨消费强劲，带动国 内油脂价格拉涨。目前国 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-11-20 郑棉期价小幅反弹，糖价走势依旧偏弱 棉花观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘棉花2601合约13485元/吨，较前一日变动+90元/吨，幅度+0.67%。现货方面，3128B棉新疆到 厂价14557元/吨，较前一日变动-1元/吨，现货基差CF01+1072，较前一日变动-91；3128B棉全国均价14779元/吨， 较前一日变动-10元/吨，现货基差CF01+1294，较前一日变动-100。 近期市场资讯，据巴基斯坦棉花种植者协会(PCGA)2025/26年度最新数据，截至11月15日，新年度籽棉累计上市量 折皮棉约为75.3万吨，较前两周增加6.5万吨，同比（75.9万吨）减少0.8%。其中，信德省籽棉上市量折皮棉约为41.7 万吨，同比（41.1万吨）增加1.5%；旁遮普省籽棉上市量折皮棉约为33.6万吨，同比（34.8万吨）减少3.4%。从已 上市棉花流向来看，巴基斯坦国内纱厂皮棉采购量约61.9万吨，出口约2.6万吨，剩余轧花厂未售出库存约10.8万吨。 市场分析 昨日郑棉期价震荡反弹。国际方面，USDA11月月报重启发布，此次报告大幅上调美棉产量，202 ...

| | 1、S&P Global Energy在向客户发布的一份报告中表示，预计2026年美国大豆种植面积将扩大4% | | --- | --- | | | 。2、咨询公司Safras & Mercado的一份报告显示，由于一些地区降雨不规律，最新预估巴西 | | 行业 | 2025/26年度大豆产量为1.7876亿吨，较9月份的预测下调了200多万吨。 | | 信息 | | | | 蛋白粕：夜盘豆菜粕偏弱运行，usda供需报告下调25/26年度美豆单产预估至53蒲式耳/蒲,由此美 | | | 豆产量下降至42.53亿蒲，最终美豆期末库存预估为2.9亿蒲，9月报告预估为3亿蒲，产量和库存 | | | 均下降从数据上看为利多。但由于此前市场对于报告调整力度预期偏高，而实际报告数据利多不 | | | 足。但近期公布的数据来看，美豆压榨需求强劲，根据NOPA数据显示10月压榨大豆2.27亿蒲式 | | | 耳，较9月增长15.1%，较去年同期增长13.9%；但由于近期美豆期价上涨较多因此出现一定回调。 | | | 国内豆粕仍维持宽松格局，库存处于高位，预计连粕短期跟随美豆调整为主。 | | 评论 | | | 及策 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 11 月 20 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：由于市场已经提前消化利好且美豆出口数据持续偏弱，尤其是对华销售远未达预期，导致 美豆价格止步不前，国内豆粕市场的成本支撑仍在，但不具备持续驱动。国内基本面呈现供应宽松态 势，港口大豆库存维持高位，油厂开机率提升使豆粕库存接近百万吨水平。此外，近期有消息称前期 采购的阿根廷豆粕已到港并顺利通关，进一步拓展了国内豆粕供给来源，加剧了市场对供应压力的担 忧。随着成本驱动切换至产业链压力，豆粕期价明显转弱。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周 ...

生猪产业期现日报 朱迪 Z0015979 | 期货指标 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 现值 240 | 前值 | 张跌 75 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 主力合约基差 | | 165 | | 45.45% | | | 生猪2605 | 11995 | 12040 | -45 | -0.37% | 元/吨 | | 生猪2601 | 11560 | 11535 | 25 | 0.22% | | | 生猪1-5价差 | -435 | -505 | 70 | 13.86% | | | 主力合约持仓 | 138334 | 142417 | -4083 | -2.87% | | | 仓单 | 90 | 90 | 0 | 0.00% | 主 | | 现货价格 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 张跌 | 当地升贴水 | 单位 | | 河南 | 11800 | 11700 | 100.0 | 0 | | | 山东 | 11800 | 11750 | 50.0 | 200 | | | 四川 | 11350 | 11350 ...

美国能源信息署19日发布数据显示，美国上周乙醇产量为3.21亿加仑，比前一周增加500万加仑，但同 比下降2%；美国乙醇库存为9.37亿加仑，增加600万加仑；上周美国日汽油消费量增长1%，达到853万 桶。 （文章来源：新华财经） 美国环保署消息称美国总统特朗普可能将进口RIN（可再生能源识别码）的决定推迟数年，芝加哥期货 交易所农产品期价下跌。 此外，市场预计从9月到12月中旬，美国损失了3.5亿至4亿蒲式耳大豆的中国进口需求，且这些损失的 销售额无法弥补。这将导致2025-2026年度美国大豆出口量低于15亿蒲式耳，甚至可能低至14.5亿蒲式 耳。 新华财经纽约11月19日电（记者徐静）芝加哥期货交易所（CBOT）玉米、小麦和大豆期价19日全线下 跌。 当天，芝加哥期货交易所玉米2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳4.4150美元，比前一交易日下跌8.00美分，跌 幅为1.78%；小麦2026年3月合约收于每蒲式耳5.4975美元，比前一交易日下跌9.25美分，跌幅为 1.65%；大豆2026年1月合约收于每蒲式耳11.3525美元，比前一交易日下跌18.25美分，跌幅为1.58%。 ...

周三（11月19日）纽约尾盘，彭博谷物分类指数跌1.68%，报30.4683点，北京时间22:30美股开盘之前 维持微幅下跌状态，之后持续加速下跌。CBOT玉米期货跌1.72%，报4.4175美元/蒲式耳。CBOT小麦期 货跌1.60%，报5.4975美元/蒲式耳。CBOT大豆期货跌1.58%，报11.3525美元/蒲式耳，豆粕期货跌 2.30%，豆油期货跌1.98%。CBOT瘦肉猪期货涨1.19%，活牛期货跌1.68%，饲牛期货跌1.44%。 ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 粕类日报 2025 年 11 月 19 日 【粕类日报】利多体现明显 美豆逐步回落 研究员：陈界正 期货从业证号： F3045719 投资咨询证号： Z0015458 联系方式： chenjiezheng_qh@chinastock.c om.cn | 粕类价格日报 | | | | | | 2025/11/19 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | | | | | | 现货基差 | | | 品 种 | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 涨 跌 | 地 区 | 今 日 | 昨 日 | 涨 跌 | | 豆粕 | 0 1 | 3022 | -19 | 天津 | 3 0 | 2 0 | 1 0 | | 0 5 | | 2824 | - 8 | 东莞 | -40 | -40 | 0 | | 0 9 | | 2937 | -10 | 张家港 | -50 | -50 | 0 | | | | | | 日照 | -20 | -30 | 1 0 | | 0 1 | | 2419 | -12 | 南通 | 2 1 | 1 9 | 2 ...