Investment Rating - Investment recommendation: 1) Baijiu: Strengthen internal capabilities, accumulate power for improvement, medium to long-term allocation value highlighted, focus on "advantageous leaders, continued dividends, strong recovery" [3][4][19] Core Viewpoints - The Baijiu industry is characterized by "demand bottoming out, channel destocking, and stable wholesale prices" in 2025. Demand structure continues to differentiate, with better performance in mass price segments and some single products upgrading [4][17] - The beer and beverage sectors are expected to see a peak season, with a focus on alpha opportunities. The beer industry is transitioning from expectations to data verification, with positive growth anticipated in 2025 due to favorable weather, improved consumer confidence, and policy stimulation [4][25] - The consumer goods sector is experiencing a joint catalyst from product and channel innovations, with significant opportunities for iteration and innovation. The demand for health-conscious and cost-effective products is driving the expansion of the food industry [5][69] Summary by Sections Baijiu - The industry is experiencing a slowdown in growth, with companies focusing on long-term healthy growth. The demand is stabilizing, and leading companies are enhancing channel management to stabilize prices [4][13] - Major companies like Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye are setting conservative growth targets, emphasizing quality development and shareholder returns [18][19] Beer & Beverages - The beer sector is entering a peak season with low comparative bases, and there are expectations for positive sales growth driven by improved conditions [25][30] - The functional beverage market is expanding, with leading companies like Dongpeng Beverage showing significant growth rates [48][52] Consumer Goods - The food industry is witnessing rapid innovation driven by both supply and demand, with a focus on health and convenience. The demand for healthy ingredients is leading to the emergence of new product categories [69][73] - The channel landscape is evolving, with discount formats and supermarkets adapting to meet consumer needs, leading to the rapid expansion of specialized stores and e-commerce [79][80]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the white liquor sector is showing significant allocation value, with its commodity attributes being rapidly reshaped, enhancing its fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) characteristics, which will increasingly highlight the competitive advantages of companies that can adapt to FMCG operational logic [1][2] - The new consumption trend is fundamentally a structural dividend driven by channel and category resonance, with retail efficiency improving and younger demographics gradually generating income, leading to a clear new channel and new category-driven consumption [2] - The white liquor industry is currently in a bottoming cycle, with pricing pressure greater than volume pressure, and most companies' short-term performance increasingly reliant on market share gains in core markets [2][3] Group 2 - The white liquor sector shows significant allocation value from a stock price perspective, with potential for dividends as leading companies have dividend yields close to or greater than 3% [3] - Dynamic valuations have returned to historically low levels, with potential catalysts such as stabilization in housing prices and domestic demand policies [3] - The selection of stocks should prioritize companies with market share logic, as the industry is expected to continue evolving [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Increase" rating for the food and beverage industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for companies to strengthen their internal capabilities while actively seeking new growth avenues. It highlights three main investment themes in the liquor segment: leading brands, sustained dividends, and recovery beneficiaries [1]. - In the consumer goods sector, the focus is on identifying high-growth and strong recovery opportunities, with specific companies recommended for investment based on their growth potential and market positioning [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Liquor Segment - Leading brands such as Kweichow Moutai, Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu are expected to continue gaining market share [1]. - Companies like Yingjia Gongjiu and Jinshiyuan are highlighted for their high certainty in regional markets, while flexible stocks benefiting from recovery include Luzhou Laojiao and Shui Jing Fang [1]. Consumer Goods Segment - Companies like Salted Fish, Haoxiangni, and Dongpeng Beverage are noted for their high growth potential, while Qingdao Beer and Haitian Flavor Industry are expected to benefit from policy support and recovery improvements [1]. - The report mentions that companies are actively exploring new growth curves while maintaining their operational advantages [1]. Company-Specific Insights - Unified Enterprises China is launching new products in both beverages and food, indicating a stable operational performance [2]. - Haitian Flavor Industry is set to benefit from domestic demand stimulation and has clear overseas expansion goals, positioning it well for future growth [2]. - Good Idea is expanding its product categories while improving its core business, indicating a positive trend in operational performance [2]. - Zhou Hei Ya is focusing on enhancing store efficiency and exploring new markets, which may lead to a new growth trajectory [3]. - Hengshun Vinegar Industry is strengthening brand marketing and expanding distribution channels, which is expected to support steady growth [3]. - Qiaqia Food is under short-term cost pressure but is innovating in product categories to explore new opportunities [3]. - Guyue Longshan is increasing product prices and focusing on cross-industry innovations, aiming for sales growth of over 6% in 2025 [6].

Group 1 - The overall performance growth has turned positive, with technology and certain cyclical sectors showing strong results, particularly in emerging technologies and the "two new" sectors driving growth in automotive, home appliances, and engineering machinery [1][2] - In Q1 2025, the net profit growth of the entire A-share non-financial sector improved to +4.7% year-on-year, driven by a significant reduction in expense ratios and stabilization of gross margins [2][4] - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware, continues to show strong growth, while cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals and chemicals also reported high growth rates [3][4] Group 2 - The real estate sector has seen some financial indicators improve, with a notable increase in dividend yields, indicating potential investment value [6][7] - In 2024, the revenue growth of key property companies was +4.2%, while profits continued to decline by -28.3%, highlighting a divergence in performance among different companies [7][8] - The average dividend yield for key property companies reached 5.04%, with three companies exceeding 10% [7][9] Group 3 - The food and beverage sector experienced a slowdown, with overall revenue growth of +2% and net profit growth of +4% in 2024, while Q1 2025 showed minimal growth [10][11] - The liquor segment remains stable, with high-end brands showing strong performance, while the consumer goods segment is seeing structural growth opportunities, particularly in snacks and beverages [11][12] - The dairy segment faced challenges, with a significant decline in revenue and profit in 2024, but showed signs of recovery in Q1 2025 [12][13] Group 4 - The beauty and personal care sector reported a revenue increase of 13% and a slight net profit increase of 0.2% in 2024, with individual segments like personal care showing significant growth [14][15] - The medical aesthetics segment is led by collagen products, while the cosmetics segment showed mixed performance, particularly in the Hong Kong market [15][16] - The sector is expected to benefit from product innovation and the rise of domestic brands, with a focus on long-term growth potential [14][16] Group 5 - The apparel and luxury goods sectors are facing mixed performance, with overseas sports brands showing strong revenue growth while luxury brands are under pressure [18][19] - The U.S. apparel retail market grew by 2.6% in 2024, with outdoor and high-end sports segments performing well [18][19] - The luxury goods sector is cautious about 2025, with many brands indicating limited price increases due to rising costs rather than for revenue generation [21][22] Group 6 - The semiconductor equipment and materials sectors are expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures in advanced processes, with significant growth projected for 2025 [30][31] - The semiconductor equipment sector reported a revenue increase of 27.01% in 2024, while the materials sector also showed robust growth [31][32] - The valuation of the semiconductor sector remains reasonable, with a focus on growth potential and the performance of leading companies [33] Group 7 - The optical industry is experiencing varied performance, with strong growth in the Apple supply chain while Android-related products face challenges [35][36] - Companies like Crystal Optoelectronics and Lantech Optical reported significant revenue growth in Q1 2025, driven by increased demand for specific products [35][36] - The automotive optical segment showed stable performance, with some companies reporting growth despite seasonal challenges [36] Group 8 - The computer industry is showing signs of recovery, with an increase in the number of companies reporting positive revenue and profit growth in Q1 2025 [38][39] - The overall revenue for the computer sector in 2024 was 12,693.99 billion, with a notable recovery in Q1 2025 [39][40] - Large-cap companies are performing more steadily compared to mid and small-cap companies, with AI and energy IT sectors showing significant recovery [40][41]

Core Viewpoint - The liquor industry is entering a phase of bottoming out, with signs of pressure relief expected in the second quarter of 2025, leading to potential recovery in the second half of the year [1][3] Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is showing signs of bottoming out, with significant structural differentiation among companies, particularly the resilience of leading brands [1][2] - In 2024, the overall demand for liquor is expected to weaken, leading to a decline in cash flow and profit for most listed liquor companies, except for Moutai [1][2] - For Q1 2025, major liquor companies have adopted a more pragmatic approach, with revenue growth of 1.6% and profit growth of 0.3% compared to the previous year [2] Leading Brands - Moutai's revenue grew by 11.7% and profit by 13.8%, significantly outperforming the industry, while Wuliangye achieved positive growth in the thousand-yuan price segment [2] - Regional leaders like Gujing and Jinshiyuan have also shown stronger performance compared to their competitors [2][4] Capital Market - Major liquor companies are enhancing shareholder returns through high dividends and significant buybacks, which helps to bolster market confidence [2] Consumer Goods Sector - The dairy and beer sectors have emerged from their bottoming phase, while snacks and beverages are performing well [2][3] - The overall revenue and profit for the consumer goods sector increased by 2.4% and 8.4% respectively in Q4 2024 and Q1 2025 [2] New Opportunities - New channels and product categories are driving growth in the snack and beverage sectors, with significant expansion in snack retail and innovative beverage offerings [3][4] - The food and beverage industry is expected to gradually recover, with potential for both fundamental and valuation improvements in the second half of the year [3][4]

2025 年 05 月 06 日 年报季顺利收官，五一白酒需求符合预期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：张倩 S1050124070037 zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | -1.5 | 8.1 | -9.2 | | 沪深 300 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩密集 披露期，整体反馈符合预期》2025- 04-28 2、《食品饮料行业周报：社零数据 超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻》2025- 04-21 3、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）河南盛林年销售 ...

2025 年 05 月 06 日 年报季顺利收官，五一白酒需求符合预期 推荐(维持) 投资要点 分析师：孙山山 S1050521110005 sunss@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：肖燕南 S1050123060024 xiaoyn@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：张倩 S1050124070037 zhangqian@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 食品饮料(申万) | -1.5 | 8.1 | -9.2 | | 沪深 300 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 4.6 | 市场表现 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究 1、《食品饮料行业周报：业绩密集 披露期，整体反馈符合预期》2025- 04-28 2、《食品饮料行业周报：社零数据 超预期暨一季度业绩前瞻》2025- 04-21 3、《食品饮料行业点评报告：内需 持续释放，3 月社零数据超预期》 2025-04-18 ▌ 一周新闻速递 行业新闻：1）河南盛林年销售 ...

月度策略/A 股市场 2025 年 4 月 30 日 继续企稳修复 2025 年 5 月份投资策略报告 分析师：费小平 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340518010002 电话：0769-22111089 邮箱：fxp@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：尹炜祺 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340522120001 电话：0769-22118627 邮箱： yinweiqi@dgzq.com.cn 分析师：曾浩 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523110001 电话：0769-22119276 邮箱： zenghao@dgzq.com.cn | 市场主要指数 | 4 | 月份表现 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 收盘点位 | 涨跌幅 | | 上证指数 | 3279.03 | -1.70% | | 深证成指 | 9899.82 | -5.75% | | 沪深 300 | 3770.57 | -3.00% | | 创业板指 | 1948.03 | -7.40% | | 北证 50 | 1331.13 | 4.72% | | 科创 50 | 1012.42 | -1.01% | 资料来源：东莞 ...

PPPPAAAARRRRTTTT 1111 关税落地，料A股回暖 关税"风暴"落地后，预计A股回暖、港股休整、美股修复。 4月初关税"风暴"即将落地，中国可能受影响最大，但准备也最充分；控供给、保需求，二季度国内政策发 力方向越发清晰。关税"风暴"落地后，预计A股回暖、港股休整、美股修复。从业绩层面来看，核心资产已 体现出极强的经营韧性，左侧布局的契机已经成熟；从流动性层面来看，活跃资金明显退潮，产业主题需 要催化及时间来蓄势。配置上，延续科技点火、供给侧发力和消费补短板的思路。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复苏不及预期；海内外 宏观流动性超预期收紧；俄乌、中东地区冲突进一步升级；我国房地产库存消化不及预期。 点击查看全文 外部扰动加大，聚焦三大主题 秦培景 刘易 王冠然 侯苏洋 卿施典 任恒毅 白弘伟 田鹏 王涛 王子昂 随着A股进入业绩披露期，以及外部扰动加大，市场整固的同时主题风格高低切换，前期市场关注度较高的 主题退潮，业绩、关税等因素成为新催化，建议关注业绩超预期主题、化工原料涨价主题、中美博弈主 题。我们延续从3月份以来的配置观点，建议继续关注业绩确定性 ...

行业周报 研究所 [table_reportdate] 食品饮料 2025 年 02 月 24 日 行业研究 行业周报 投资评级：推荐 白酒控货挺价，短期或具补涨行情 核心观点 股价走势图 1）摘要 本周板块走势较平稳，主要原因为板块无较大基本面催化；白酒春节后 进入淡季，诸多企业开启停货挺价的动作，包括五粮液、今世缘、汾酒 及老窖等；市场反馈相对理性和平稳，其中今世缘和汾酒渠道反馈势能 仍向上，并且有增量；大众品板块延续回升，如中炬高新春节动销因基 数较高，同比或略有压力，但环比增长较优；整个板块从基本面维度看 短期或难有催化，延续相对弱势，其中白酒基本面预计仍为左侧；临近 两会，建议关注自上而下政策端的催化；全年维度看随着宏观调控发力， 有望逐步走出底部拐点；绝对估值整体处于底部区间，横向对比目前市 场其他板块龙头白马近期估值修复明显，短期板块或具补涨行情。 推荐白酒头部性企业以及泛餐饮链。推荐公司包括：贵州茅台、五粮液、 山西汾酒、泸州老窖、天味食品、安井食品、伊利股份、海天味业、千 味央厨、燕京啤酒等。 资料来源：国都证券，ifind 2）行业观点更新 白酒：近期白酒进入传统淡季，诸多厂家开启控货挺价 ...