据国家税务总局消息，自去年9月26日中央政治局会议部署实施一揽子增量政策以来，叠加存量政策显 效，发票销售和税收收入增速双双稳步回升，特别是主要行业和税种均实现平稳增长，反映我国经济向 好态势不断稳固。 中央财经大学副校长陈斌开认为，发票数据增速稳步回升，反映经济运行稳中向好、企业盈利逐步改 善、消费活力持续释放，加之今年资本市场交易活跃等因素，有力带动税收收入稳中有升。 （文章来源：经济日报） 主要行业、税种收入增长平稳，反映企业经营及利润状况不断改善。从主要行业看，制造业税收同比增 长5.4%，占全部税收比重31%，增收额占全部增收额的48%，"压舱石"作用明显。其中，部分高端制造 业税收增长较快，如铁路、船舶、航空航天和其他运输设备制造业税收同比增长31.5%；信息传输、软 件和信息技术服务业，科学研究和技术服务业税收同比分别增长15.3%和13.2%，反映新兴行业发展向 好；钢铁、有色金属行业税收同比分别增长7.5%和24.2%，大宗商品价格也呈现企稳回升态势。从主要 税种看，国内增值税同比增长3.2%，反映企业经营向好；企业所得税同比增长4.1%，反映部分行业企 业盈利状况不断改善。 房地产业相关税 ...

| | 绝树(亿元) | | 比上年同期增长(%) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 三季度 | 前三季度 | 三季度 | 前三季度 | | GDP | 354500 | 1015036 | 4.8 | 5.2 | | 第一批 | 26889 | 58061 | 4.0 | 3.8 | | 第二抖 | 124970 | 364020 | 4.2 | 4.9 | | 第三科 | 202641 | 592955 | 5.4 | 5.4 | | 灰林牧渔 | 28401 | 61626 | 4.1 | 4.0 | | Tik | 103453 | 306004 | 5.8 | 6.1 | | #制造业 | 84866 | 254751 | 6.3 | 6.5 | | 建筑化 | 22473 | ୧୦୧୫3 | -2.3 | -0.5 | | 批发和零售 | 36389 | 104615 | 4 0 | 5.6 | | 交通运输、仓储和邮政业 | 16754 | 46266 | 4.8 | 5.8 | | 住宿和餐饮 r | ୧୦:୧ | 18370 | 3.6 | 4. ...

根据有关基础资料和国内生产总值（GDP）核算方法，经初步核算，我国2025年三季度GDP核算结果 如下。 表1 2025年三季度GDP初步核算数据 1.绝对额按现价计算，增长速度按不变价计算； 2.三次产业分类依据国家统计局2018年修订的《三次产业划分规定》； 3.行业分类采用《国民经济行业分类（GB/T 4754－2017）》； 4.本表GDP总量数据中，有的不等于各产业（行业）之和，是由于数值修约误差所致，未作 机械调整。 点击下载：相关数据表 表2 GDP同比增长速度 单位：% | 年份 | 1季度 | 2季度 | 3季度 | 4季度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2020 | -6.8 | 3.2 | 4.9 | 6.5 | | 2021 | 18.9 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 4.5 | | 2022 | 4.8 | 0.8 | 4.0 | 3.0 | | 2023 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 5.3 | | 2024 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | | 2025 | 5.4 | 5.2 | 4.8 | | 注：同比增长速 ...

Group 1 - The implementation of a package of incremental policies since September 26 last year has led to a steady recovery in both invoice sales and tax revenue, indicating a positive trend in the economy [1] - The quarterly sales revenue growth for enterprises has shown a steady increase from 0.4% to 4.4% over the past year, reflecting improved business conditions [1] - Tax revenue related to the capital market has increased significantly, with a year-on-year growth of 56.8%, and securities transaction stamp duty rising by 110.5%, indicating active stock market trading [2] Group 2 - The manufacturing sector has seen a year-on-year tax revenue growth of 5.4%, contributing significantly to overall tax revenue, with high-end manufacturing sectors like aerospace and transportation equipment growing by 31.5% [2] - The real estate sector has experienced a narrowing decline in tax revenue, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.8%, reflecting the effectiveness of policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market [3] - The consumption of durable goods has increased, with retail sales of home appliances like refrigerators and televisions growing by 55.4% and 35.3% respectively, indicating a boost in consumer spending [3]

房地产业相关税收降幅收窄，反映房地产市场系列政策显效。一年来，党中央、国务院部署出台稳定房 地产市场系列政策，税务部门认真落实去年底出台的稳定房地产市场相关税收优惠政策，今年以来累计 新增减税近800亿元，居民住房交易成本明显下降，助力房地产市场企稳。一年来，房地产业相关税收 (包括二手房)同比下降9.8%，剔除房地产税收优惠政策减税因素后下降5%左右，降幅比2024年前三季 度收窄超过10个百分点。 全国企业设备更新加快推进，消费品以旧换新政策持续释放消费活力。增值税发票数据显示，一年来， 全国企业采购机械设备类金额同比增长9.7%，其中高技术制造业采购机械设备类金额同比增长11.8%， 保持良好增长势头；冰箱等日用家电零售业、电视机等家用视听设备零售业销售收入同比分别增长 55.4%和35.3%。 据国家税务总局消息，自去年9月26日中央政治局会议部署实施一揽子增量政策以来，叠加存量政策显 效，发票销售和税收收入增速双双稳步回升，特别是主要行业和税种均实现平稳增长，反映我国经济向 好态势不断稳固。 国家发改委经济研究所学术委员会委员、研究员许生表示，去年9月26日中央政治局会议部署实施的一 揽子增量政策， ...

据国家税务总局消息，自去年9月26日中央政治局会议部署实施一揽子增量政策以来，叠加存量政策显 效，发票销售和税收收入增速双双稳步回升，特别是主要行业和税种均实现平稳增长，反映我国经济向 好态势不断稳固。 全国企业设备更新加快推进，消费品以旧换新政策持续释放消费活力。增值税发票数据显示，一年来， 全国企业采购机械设备类金额同比增长9.7%，其中高技术制造业采购机械设备类金额同比增长11.8%， 保持良好增长势头；冰箱等日用家电零售业、电视机等家用视听设备零售业销售收入同比分别增长 55.4%和35.3%。 中央财经大学副校长陈斌开认为，发票数据增速稳步回升，反映经济运行稳中向好、企业盈利逐步改 善、消费活力持续释放，加之今年资本市场交易活跃等因素，有力带动税收收入稳中有升。（经济日报 记者 董碧娟） 资本市场相关税收保持较高增速，反映股市交易活跃。一年来，资本市场服务业税收同比增长56.8%， 其中证券交易印花税同比增长110.5%；与资本市场相关的行业、税种收入增长较快，如保险业税收同 比增长13.3%；同时，股权转让以及上市公司分红增加。 主要行业、税种收入增长平稳，反映企业经营及利润状况不断改善。从主要行 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic growth in the third quarter is supported by short-term factors and medium-term resilience, maintaining reasonable growth [2][8][42] GDP - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter is 4.8%, matching expectations, with contributions from service consumption, improved external demand, and strong construction activity [2][44] - Service consumption remains resilient, contributing 2.7 percentage points to GDP [2][8] - External demand has improved, with net exports contributing 1.2 percentage points to GDP [2][8] - Construction activity surged in September, with a 22.9% increase, boosting property sales and supporting capital formation in GDP [2][8] Production - Industrial value-added growth increased to 6.5% in September, driven by specific industries like automotive production [2][13] - The automotive sector saw a 7.6% increase in value-added, contributing to an overall production growth of 0.4% [2][13] - Downstream production showed significant improvement, while upstream production remained weak due to declining investments [2][14] Retail Sales - Retail sales below the quota showed a decline, but service consumption continued to grow at a rate of 5.2% [3][20] - Retail sales of automobiles improved due to anticipated adjustments in subsidy policies, while home appliances saw a decline [3][20] - The overall retail sales growth in September was 3.0%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month [3][20] Real Estate - The "guarantee delivery" and "existing home sales policy" have been implemented, leading to a significant increase in construction activity [3][24] - Property prices in 70 cities showed a slight year-on-year increase, but still negative on a month-on-month basis [3][24] - The construction growth rate surged to 1.5% in September, driven by policy support [3][24] Investment - Fixed asset investment growth remains low, with a year-on-year decline of 6.5% in September [4][33] - Other expenses saw a significant increase, while construction and installation investment dropped sharply [4][33] - The acceleration of debt repayment has occupied funds for fixed investment, contributing to the ongoing decline in investment growth [4][33] Summary - Economic pressures are increasing, but policies are actively countering these effects, with expectations for resilience in the fourth quarter [4][42] - Short-term factors like "production rush" may fade, leading to potential downward pressure on industrial production [4][42] - The implementation of 500 billion yuan in local special bond quotas is expected to alleviate the impact of debt repayment on fixed asset investment [4][43]

Primary Market - A total of 21 offshore bonds were issued this week (October 13-17, 2025), including 5 RMB bonds, 14 USD bonds, and 2 HKD bonds, with issuance scales of 5.193 billion RMB, 2.565 billion USD, and 1.635 billion HKD respectively [2] - The largest single issuance in the offshore RMB bond market this month was 2.5 billion RMB by Bank of China Macau Branch, while the highest coupon rate for RMB bonds was 4.5% issued by Heze Railway Investment Development Group [2] - In the USD bond market, the largest single issuance was 1.2 billion USD by Wistron Corporation, with the highest coupon rate of 5.875% issued by China Water Affairs Group [2] Secondary Market Overview - The yield on Chinese USD bonds mostly increased this week, with the Markit iBoxx Chinese USD Bond Composite Index rising by 0.52% to 251.29, and the investment-grade USD bond index increasing by 0.59% to 243.79 [3] - The high-yield USD bond index decreased slightly by 0.04% to 245.65, while the real estate USD bond index rose by 0.08% to 187.42 [3] Benchmark Spread - As of October 17, 2025, the spread between the 10-year benchmark government bonds of China and the US narrowed to 222.2 basis points, a decrease of 5.82 basis points from the previous week [4] Rating Changes - On October 17, Fitch confirmed and withdrew the "BB+" long-term issuer rating for Jiangsu Jinzu due to commercial reasons [6] - On October 14, Fitch withdrew the "A" long-term issuer ratings for Beijing Guarantee Housing Center and Zhongguancun Development Group due to the issuers ceasing participation in the rating process [6] Defaults and Extensions - Baolong Industrial announced that the repayment funds for the bond "H21 Baolong 2/21 Baolong 02" were not fully in place, and they will complete the payment within a grace period of two months, ending on December 16, 2025 [7] Domestic News - The Ministry of Finance announced the allocation of 500 billion RMB from the local government debt balance limit to local governments to implement central government decisions [9] - Bank of China Macau successfully issued the first technology innovation bond for Chinese financial institutions in the offshore market, with a scale of approximately 1 billion USD [10] - The issuance of 1.3 trillion RMB of ultra-long-term special government bonds for 2025 has been completed, with the last issuance of 40 billion RMB on October 14 [11] Overseas News - Federal Reserve official Collins warned that a further rate cut of 25 basis points may be appropriate due to concerns over a weakening labor market [12] - Sunac China announced that the majority of creditors voted in favor of its offshore debt restructuring plan, with 98.5% approval from 1,492 creditors [12] - CIFI Holdings plans to issue 4.1 billion USD of mandatory convertible bonds, expecting to reduce 1.4 billion USD of offshore debt [14] - Jinke Properties announced a new board of directors, with Guo Wei appointed as chairman [15]

Core Insights - The report highlights a decline in the year-on-year growth rate of social financing (社融) to 8.7% in September 2025, down from 8.8% in August 2025, with new RMB loans amounting to 1.29 trillion yuan compared to 1.59 trillion yuan in September 2024 [3][4] - The report indicates that the demand for credit in the real economy remains weak, with government bonds continuing to support social financing growth, although the net financing scale of government bonds in September 2025 (1.17 trillion yuan) is lower than that in August 2024 (1.50 trillion yuan) [4][6] - The report notes a structural highlight in financial data for September, driven by base effects and short-term policy impacts, suggesting that the bond market may not return to a "fundamentals + liquidity" pricing model without significant interest rate cuts [4][6] Financial Data Analysis - In September 2025, the new social financing scale was 3.53 trillion yuan, lower than the seasonal level, indicating a decrease in financing activity [4][5] - The report mentions that the increase in M1 growth rate and the narrowing of the M1-M2 spread to historical lows since 2022 suggest a complex relationship between money supply and economic activity [4][36] - The report highlights that the weak performance in the equity market has led to a slowdown in the trend of household deposits entering the market, with non-bank deposits significantly dropping [4][10] Credit Demand Insights - The report identifies that the demand for credit from households is not strong, with improvements in medium and long-term loans being observed but still below seasonal levels [4][21][26] - It notes that corporate short-term loans have shown signs of recovery, while the demand for long-term loans remains weak [4][24][26] - The report emphasizes that the ticket discount rate has risen, which may suppress the demand for corporate bill financing [4][10] Government Bond Financing - The report indicates a slowdown in the issuance of government bonds and a decrease in loan demand, which together have dragged down the growth rate of social financing in September [4][6] - It highlights that the net financing pace of local government bonds has also slowed down, reflecting a cautious approach in fiscal policy [4][6] Market Trends - The report discusses the trend of household deposits remaining high, with a significant portion of deposits being held in demand accounts due to lower opportunity costs from deposit rates [4][35] - It also notes that the overall market for wealth management products has grown in line with seasonal expectations, indicating stable investor sentiment [4][43]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of the recent reduction in mortgage rates on homeowners who purchased properties at higher rates, specifically those who bought at 5.88%, and explores their potential responses to this situation [1][10]. Group 1: Mortgage Rate Context - The current mortgage rate has decreased to 4.25%, while many homeowners are still burdened by higher rates from previous years [1][7]. - China's mortgage scale is approximately 38.8 trillion, with 96% of families owning at least one property, indicating a strong reliance on real estate as a primary asset [3][5]. Group 2: Homeownership Sentiment - The preference for real estate among Chinese citizens is driven by various factors, including rapid price increases and the social significance of property ownership for issues like residency, marriage, and education [5][6]. - Real estate constitutes 77% of total household assets in China, highlighting the central role of property in wealth accumulation [3][5]. Group 3: Government Policies and Market Response - To cool down the overheated real estate market, the government implemented policies that included raising mortgage rates, which peaked at 5.88% [7]. - In response to market conditions, banks have begun to lower mortgage rates to stimulate demand and alleviate the financial burden on buyers [7][9]. Group 4: Homeowners' Strategies - Homeowners with a 5.88% mortgage should first review their loan contracts to determine if they have a floating or fixed rate, as this will affect their ability to benefit from lower rates in the future [9][10]. - Options for homeowners include considering early repayment of loans, although this requires significant funds and may incur penalties [9]. - A more aggressive strategy involves selling their current home to buy a new one at the lower rate, but this carries risks such as potential delays and the possibility of losing the first-time buyer rate [9][10].