1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Macro & RMB Exchange Rate**: The criminal investigation of Fed Chair Powell reveals the core dilemma of global macro - policies and the risk of stagflation. The Fed's policy space is narrowing and its independence is being eroded, which has led to a re - balance of global capital. The recent strengthening of the RMB is driven by both external and internal factors, and it is an early signal of global capital's re - allocation. The future trends of the Powell event and the RMB will be intertwined [1][2]. - **Equity Index**: The previous trading day's equity index continued to rise with heavy volume, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high. However, the sustainability of the trading volume is limited, and the index may face a technical adjustment. The spring rally may continue in February, and any potential correction is expected to be temporary [4]. - **Treasury Bonds**: The bond market showed resilience on Monday. Although the bond market lacks bullish drivers and the overnight interest rate has risen, if the A - share market cools down, the bond market may rebound further. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [5]. - **Container Shipping (European Routes)**: The container shipping futures on European routes are expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Near - term contracts are supported by high spot indices and the expectation of PV cargo rush, but their upside is limited. Long - term contracts are more affected by the resumption of shipping expectations [7][9][11]. - **New Energy (Carbonate Lithium)**: The downstream of carbonate lithium is in the process of restocking. The futures price of carbonate lithium rose, and the spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain performed well. The demand for carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the long - term value support is still solid [13]. - **New Energy (Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon)**: In the short - term, the rush to export PV products will drive the demand for industrial silicon and polysilicon, but the high inventory of polysilicon restricts the demand transmission. In the medium - term, the demand for polysilicon may decline significantly after the rush - export period. It is recommended to focus on the production resumption of polysilicon enterprises and consider long positions at low prices in the long - term [14][15]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper)**: Affected by the overall strength of the metal sector, the center of gravity of copper futures has shifted upwards. The second - quarter contracts have higher valuations, and the forward contracts show a BACK structure. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different price ranges [16][17][18]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Aluminum Industry Chain)**: For aluminum, the medium - to long - term price is bullish, but short - term tariff issues may put pressure on the price. For alumina, the medium - term trend is weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices. For cast aluminum alloy, it is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [19][20]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc)**: Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term [20]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Tin)**: Tin prices may continue to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. - **Non - ferrous Metals (Lead)**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [22]. - **Oils & Fats (Oilseeds)**: The external soybean market is expected to be weak, while the domestic soybean meal market will be near - term strong and long - term weak. Rapeseed meal is in a state of weak supply and demand, and attention should be paid to the progress of Australian rapeseed crushing and China - Canada negotiations [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Palm Oil)**: Palm oil is expected to be relatively strong in the short - term within the sector [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Soybean Oil)**: The global soybean supply is abundant, and the domestic soybean oil market should pay attention to the supply increment from reserve sales [24]. - **Oils & Fats (Rapeseed Oil)**: The global rapeseed supply is abundant, and attention should be paid to the results of the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister to China [24]. - **Energy & Oil & Gas (Fuel Oil)**: High - sulfur fuel oil supply is tight due to sanctions, and the high - sulfur crack spread is falling. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is improving, and its upward drive is limited [27][28]. - **Energy & Oil & Gas (Asphalt)**: The asphalt market is affected by cost fluctuations. The winter storage policy provides some support, and it is recommended to pay attention to positive spreads, 03 basis, and crack long - allocation opportunities [29]. - **Precious Metals (Platinum & Palladium)**: Platinum and palladium are expected to oscillate strongly in the medium - to long - term. However, short - term risks of correction should be noted due to index parameter adjustments [30][31]. - **Precious Metals (Gold & Silver)**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The precious metals market is in a pattern of being easy to rise and hard to fall. It is recommended to pay attention to support levels and use dips as opportunities to add long positions [32][33]. - **Chemicals (Pulp - Offset Paper)**: The pulp futures price fell as expected, and the current market is slightly bearish. The offset paper futures price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies in the short - term [34][35]. - **Chemicals (LPG)**: The LPG market is affected by geopolitical factors. The supply is relatively tight, and attention should be paid to the maintenance situation of PDH plants [35][36]. - **Chemicals (PTA - PX)**: The PTA - PX supply - demand structure has improved, but the upward drive of PTA is weakened by downstream negative feedback. PX is expected to be in a tight supply - demand situation in the first half of 2026. It is not recommended to chase high prices [36][37][39]. - **Chemicals (MEG - Bottle Chips)**: The demand for ethylene glycol is under negative feedback, and the supply - demand situation is difficult to reverse without macro - policy support. It is recommended to wait and see [39][40][41]. - **Chemicals (Methanol)**: The geopolitical logic in the methanol market continues. Although the MTO shutdown weakens the fundamentals of the 05 contract, shorting is not recommended [41][42]. - **Chemicals (PP)**: The PP market is expected to show a pattern of supply and demand reduction. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of plant maintenance [43][44]. - **Chemicals (PE)**: The PE market is shifting to a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, and its upward space is limited [45][46]. - **Chemicals (Pure Benzene - Styrene)**: Pure benzene is in an oversupply situation in the short - term and follows the strength of styrene. Styrene is running strongly, but caution should be exercised when chasing high prices [47][48][50]. - **Chemicals (Rubber)**: Natural rubber is under supply pressure, and synthetic rubber is affected by cost and demand factors. Rubber is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation [50][52][53]. - **Chemicals (Urea)**: The price of urea is expected to rise in the 05 contract, but a short - term correction may occur. It is recommended to hold long positions [54][55]. - **Chemicals (Soda Ash & Caustic Soda)**: Soda ash is facing over - supply expectations, and glass has high inventory pressure. Caustic soda is expected to oscillate widely with weak fundamental drivers [55][57][58]. - **Chemicals (Propylene)**: Propylene prices are mainly affected by cost. The supply is relatively loose, and attention should be paid to the impact of cost changes [58][59]. - **Black Metals (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Rebar demand is seasonally weakening, and the supply of steel products is increasing. However, the downside space is limited due to support from raw materials. Steel prices are expected to oscillate [60][61]. - **Black Metals (Iron Ore)**: The iron ore price is deviating from its fundamentals. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is not recommended to chase high prices [61][62]. - **Black Metals (Coking Coal & Coke)**: Some coking enterprises have initiated a price increase. The supply of coking coal and coke is stable, and the demand is expected to increase. However, the macro - sentiment is the key factor affecting the price [63][64]. - **Black Metals (Ferrosilicon & Ferromanganese)**: The supply of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese is under pressure, but they are supported by cost. They are expected to oscillate at the bottom after a correction [64]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Hogs)**: The hog market is in a situation of both decreasing supply and demand. The price is expected to oscillate narrowly with limited upside [65][66]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Cotton)**: The price of cotton has risen, but there are risks of short - term correction due to factors such as squeezed spinning profits and the price advantage of imported yarns [67][68]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Sugar)**: The sugar price is oscillating under pressure. Attention should be paid to the trend of raw sugar [68][69]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Eggs)**: The egg price is rising during the pre - holiday peak season and is expected to remain strong until the Spring Festival [70]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Apples)**: The apple futures price is under pressure at high levels. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday stocking situation [74][75]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Jujubes)**: The jujube price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term and will be under pressure in the long - term due to loose supply - demand [76]. - **Agricultural and Soft Commodities (Logs)**: The spot price of some log specifications has increased, but the futures market is dull. The inventory may have reached a turning point, and the upside of the price is limited [77][78][79]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro and Exchange Rate - **Market Information**: Trump announced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran; the Fed's investigation of Powell has caused market turmoil; Trump may interview a BlackRock executive for the Fed chair position [1]. - **Core Logic**: The criminal investigation of Powell reflects the core dilemma of global macro - policies and the risk of stagflation. The Fed's policy independence is being challenged, which has led to a re - balance of global capital. The RMB's appreciation is driven by both external and internal factors [1][2]. - **Exchange Rate Performance**: The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose in the previous trading day, and the RMB central parity rate was also adjusted upwards [1]. 3.2 Equity Index - **Market Review**: The previous trading day's equity index continued to rise with heavy volume, and the trading volume of the two markets reached a record high. The futures index also showed different trends [4]. - **Important Information**: The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into the Fed chair [4]. - **Market Outlook**: The sustainability of the trading volume is limited, and the index may face a technical adjustment. The spring rally may continue in February, and any potential correction is expected to be temporary [4]. 3.3 Treasury Bonds - **Market Review**: The bond market showed resilience on Monday, with most bond prices rising. The money market tightened slightly, and the yield of some bonds declined [5]. - **Important Information**: Relevant departments announced plans to focus on technological research and development in certain fields during the "14th Five - Year Plan" period [5]. - **Market Outlook**: Although the bond market lacks bullish drivers and the overnight interest rate has risen, if the A - share market cools down, the bond market may rebound further. It is recommended to hold medium - term long positions and gradually take profits on short - term long positions [5]. 3.4 Container Shipping (European Routes) - **Market Review**: The container shipping futures on European routes rose across the board on the previous trading day, with near - term contracts performing strongly. The spot index also increased significantly [7][8]. - **Market Information**: The market is affected by multiple factors, including the expected PV cargo rush, the resumption of shipping by Maersk, and the approaching Spring Festival [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: The container shipping futures on European routes are expected to show a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. Near - term contracts are supported by high spot indices and the expectation of PV cargo rush, but their upside is limited. Long - term contracts are more affected by the resumption of shipping expectations [7][9][11]. 3.5 New Energy 3.5.1 Carbonate Lithium - **Market Review**: The futures price of carbonate lithium rose, and the trading volume decreased. The inventory of carbonate lithium futures increased [13]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain performed well, with prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and cathode materials rising [13]. - **Market Outlook**: The downstream of carbonate lithium is in the process of restocking. The demand for carbonate lithium is expected to be strong in the short - term, and the long - term value support is still solid [13]. 3.5.2 Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The futures prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon showed different trends. The trading volume and inventory of both also changed [14]. - **Industry Performance**: The spot market of the industrial silicon and PV industries performed generally. The prices of some products remained stable, while others increased slightly [14][15]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the rush to export PV products will drive the demand for industrial silicon and polysilicon, but the high inventory of polysilicon restricts the demand transmission. In the medium - term, the demand for polysilicon may decline significantly after the rush - export period. It is recommended to focus on the production resumption of polysilicon enterprises and consider long positions at low prices in the long - term [14][15]. 3.6 Non - ferrous Metals 3.6.1 Copper - **Market Review**: The futures prices of copper in different markets rose. The basis and the ratio of Shanghai and London copper also changed [16]. - **Industry Information**: The inventory of copper in different exchanges showed different trends, and the spot price of copper increased. Morgan Stanley changed its forecast for the Fed's interest rate policy [16][17]. - **Market Outlook**: Affected by the overall strength of the metal sector, the center of gravity of copper futures has shifted upwards. The second - quarter contracts have higher valuations, and the forward contracts show a BACK structure. Different trading strategies are recommended according to different price ranges [16][17][18]. 3.6.2 Aluminum Industry Chain - **Market Review**: The futures prices of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy rose. The trading volume and inventory of each also changed [19]. - **Core Logic**: For aluminum, Trump's tariff decision and the change in the PV export tax policy may affect the price. For alumina, it is affected by the performance of related varieties and is in an over - supply situation. For cast aluminum alloy, it follows the trend of aluminum and has certain support [19][20]. - **Market Outlook**: The medium - to long - term price of aluminum is bullish, but short - term tariff issues may put pressure on the price. Alumina is expected to be weak in the medium - term, and it is recommended to short at high prices. Cast aluminum alloy is recommended to pay attention to the price difference with aluminum [19][20]. 3.6.3 Zinc - **Market Review**: The futures price of zinc rose. The trading volume and inventory also changed [20]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of zinc is relatively loose in the long - term, but the short - term supply is affected by the tightness of raw materials. The demand is weak, and the inventory situation is different at home and abroad [20][21]. - **Market Outlook**: Zinc is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation in the short - term [20]. 3.6.4 Tin - **Market Review**: The futures price of tin rose strongly. The trading volume and inventory also changed [21]. - **Market Outlook**: Tin prices may continue to rise in the short - term, and it is recommended to go long on dips [21]. 3.6.5 Lead - **Market Review**: The futures price of lead oscillated narrowly. The spot price also remained stable [22]. - **Core Logic**: The supply of lead is affected by the tightness of raw materials, and the demand is weak. The inventory situation is different at home and abroad [22]. - **Market Outlook**: Lead prices are expected to oscillate in a narrow range [22]. 3.7 Oils & Fats 3.7.1 Oilseeds - **Market Review**: The report data of oilseeds were bearish, and the domestic粕类 is expected to open lower. The market will be near - term strong and long - term weak [24]. - **Supply - Demand Analysis**: For imported soybeans, the supply pressure from Brazil in the second quarter of

格隆汇1月12日丨湖南白银(002716.SZ)公布，2025年12月9日起，湖南白银股份有限公司对铅冶炼系统 及配套环保、安全装置等进行年度检修及必要的升级改造，预计停产改造时间约为27天，详见公司于 2025年12月9日披露的《关于公司年度计划检修的公告》（公告编号：2025-090）。检修期间，公司对 生产系统进行了全面检修、升级改造，为后续安全、连续、高效生产奠定了坚实基础。截至本公告披露 日，公司已完成全部检修计划，并于2026年1月12日全面恢复生产运行状态。 ...

湖南白银（002716）(002716.SZ)发布公告，2025年12月9日起，公司对铅冶炼系统及配套环保、安全装 置等进行年度检修及必要的升级改造，预计停产改造时间约为27天。截至本公告披露日，公司已完成全 部检修计划，并于2026年1月12日全面恢复生产运行状态。 ...

智通财经APP讯，湖南白银(002716.SZ)发布公告，2025年12月9日起，公司对铅冶炼系统及配套环保、 安全装置等进行年度检修及必要的升级改造，预计停产改造时间约为27天。截至本公告披露日，公司已 完成全部检修计划，并于2026年1月12日全面恢复生产运行状态。 ...

人民财讯1月12日电，湖南白银（002716）1月12日公告，2025年12月9日起，公司对铅冶炼系统及配套 环保、安全装置等进行年度检修及必要的升级改造。截至目前，公司已完成全部检修计划，并于2026年 1月12日全面恢复生产运行状态。 ...

今日沪期锌走势：今日沪期锌高开走强；沪锌2602主力合约开盘价24070元/吨，最高价24140元/吨，最 低价23895元/吨，昨日结算价23880元/吨，今日收盘价24125元/吨，张245元，涨幅1.03%。今日沪锌 2602主力合约成交量104562手减少38665手，持仓量73033手减少3574手。伦锌北京时间14：55最新价报 3179美元，涨30美元。 国内政策基调依旧乐观。税务总局发布公告，自2026年4月1日起取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。鉴于 我国对西北欧五国的光伏组件出口量占欧线整体货量的4% - 5%，该政策预计将引发光伏企业集中抢出 口，短期或支撑锌价走强。 基本面变化有限。供应端，国内锌矿供应偏紧局面持续，锌精矿现货加工费处于低位，国产矿供应短 缺。月初，国内各地区1月锌精矿加工费陆续确定，呈下行态势。随着炼厂逐步复产，1月现货市场货源 预计增多。1月9日当周上期所库存数据显示，锌锭社会库存累积，环比增加5.82%至7.39万吨，反映出 高锌价下下游采购意愿降低，锌市供需矛盾依旧存在。需求端，进入1月，终端企业忙于年末订单交 付，且部分下游有春节前备货计划，对锌的需求预计增加。不 ...

供应端，东海期货指出，云南江西两地冶炼开工率高位持稳，开工率为69.39%，较节前的69.75%环比 下降0.36%，仍处于今年以来高位，缅甸佤邦复产节奏加快，供应整体边际改善，12月自缅甸进口量级 仍将达到8000吨。 需求端，瑞达期货（002961）分析称，近日锡价高位调整，下游采购意愿较积极，库存下降好于预期， 现货升水500元/吨；LME库存持稳，现货升水上涨。 1月12日，国内期市有色金属板块全线飘红。其中，沪锡期货主力合约封住涨停板，涨幅8%，报 376920.00元/吨。 宏观面，据广州期货介绍，美国12月非农数据细节冷热参差，1月降息预期并未有太多调整，联储大概 率维持观望立场，短期宏观影响偏中性。 综合来看，中辉期货表示，海外印尼锡出口回升，国内冶炼厂生产保持平稳，今年终端电子产品新国补 政策利多锡中长期消费，锡价短期延续偏强走势。 ...

中辉有色观点 | T | | | --- | --- | | 7 | T | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | | 美国意欲对染指多国，地缘问题升级。近期公布的数据喜忧参半影响抵消。国际局 | | | 长线持有 | 势紧张，地缘溢价交易继续，流动性风险偏好尚可。中长期来看，地缘秩序重塑， | | ★★ | | 不确定性持续存在，央行继续买黄金，长期战略配置价值不变。【990-1020】 | | 白银 | | 尽管短期 COMEX 白银有较大仓位持仓抛压，但是避险、交割逻辑、资源品紧张预期 | | | 长期持有 | 持续。长期降息、供需缺口连续 5 年，全球大财政均对白银长期有利，长期滚动做 | | ★★ | | 多逻辑不变【18200-20000】。继续关注海外市场调仓风险。 | | | | 美非农数据不及预期，1 月美联储大概率不降息，特朗普关税政策和全球地缘冲突加 | | 铜 | | | | ★ | 长线持有 | 剧的预期下，美元和铜齐涨，短期铜震荡偏强，建议多单持有，回调逢低试多。中 | | | | 长期对铜依旧看好。沪铜关注区间【99500 ...

2026 年 01 月 12 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 逢高做空 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 谨慎持多 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 偏强运行 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 区间震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 低多思路 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆红枣： | 触底返弹 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 近月逢高滚动空思路，远月谨慎看涨 | | ...

2、英伟达将 AI4S 与大语言模型、具身智能并列为 AI 三大方向，利用 AI 从海量科学数据中发现新规律、 加速科学发现； 3、两部门：光伏相关产品出口退税率自 26 年 4 月 1 日起，从 9%下调到 0%。锂电产品出口退税率 26 年 4 月 1 日从 9%下调到 6%，27 年 1 月 1 日下调到 0%。 4、据央视新闻报道，多位知情美国官员透露，美国总统特朗普近日听取了关于对伊朗进行军事打击方 案的简报，正在认真考虑是否对伊朗发动打击。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.12%/-0.12%/-0.32%/-1.20%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.39%/0.02%/-0.23%/-2.37%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.38%/-0.37%/-0.99%/-3.75%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.04%/-0.05%/0.02%/-0.35%。 【策略观点】 文字早评 2026/01/12 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、商业航天：中国新增 20 万颗卫星申请，其中超 19 万颗卫星来自近期刚刚成立的无线电创新院； 年初增量资金入场，融资 ...