[Table_Main] 有色月跟踪：纵观中外反内卷历史，有 色行情持续几何？ 报告要点 7 月市场行情围绕"反内卷"等展开，有色板块涨幅位居前列。2025 年 7 月 1 日，中央财经委员会第六次会议提出"纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，要聚 焦重点难点，依法依规治理企业低价无序竞争，引导企业提升产品品质，推动 落后产能有序退出。2025 年 7 月 18 日，工信部表示实施新一轮钢铁、有色 金属、石化、建材等十大重点行业稳增长工作方案。7 月周期板块涨幅位居前 列，其中有色指数涨幅位居全行业第 8 名，涨幅达 5.7%。其中在有色指数中， 小金属和能源金属表现优异。 复盘供给侧改革 1.0：有色指数涨跌幅卡位政策时间节点。"供给侧结构性改 革"于 2015 年 11 月 10 日提出，当月有色板块指数涨跌幅排名第五；2016 年 2 月国务院发布《关于钢铁行业化解过剩产能实现脱困发展的意见》及《关 于煤炭行业化解过剩产能实现脱困发展的意见》，当月有色指数涨跌幅排名 第一；2016 年 5 月国务院发布《关于促进建材工业稳增长调结构增效益的指 导意见》，有色指数涨幅第 5 名；2016 年 10 月发布《关于积 ...

文字早评 2025/08/25 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 消息面： 1、工信部：将有序引导算力设施建设 加快突破 GPU 芯片等关键核心技术； 2、《稀土开采和稀土冶炼分离总量调控管理暂行办法》发布，办法规定国家对稀土开采和冶炼分离实 行总量调控管理; 3、光伏行业协会倡议，坚决抵制以低于成本的价格开展恶性竞争，坚决抵制违反市场经济规律和法律 法规盲目扩产增产； 4、美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上表示，形势表明美国就业下行风险上升。风险平衡 的变化可能构成调整政策的理由。鲍威尔称，美联储对降息持开放态度。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.37%/0.22%/-0.07%/-0.61%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.18%/-0.77%/-1.96%/-3.74%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：-0.19%/-0.83%/-2.31%/-4.44%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.46%/0.32%/0.54%/0.63%。 交易逻辑：中央政治局会议强调增强国内资本市场的吸引力和包容性，巩固资本市场回稳向好的势头， 进一步确认了政策对资本市场的呵护态度。近期持续上涨后 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 鲍威尔暗示 9 月降息 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-25 宏观策略（黄金） 鲍威尔暗示 9 月降息 周五金价上涨约 1%，市场风险偏好受到美联储主席鲍威尔鸽派 讲话的明显提振，寻思完成了 9 月降息 25bp 和年内降息两次的 定价。鲍威尔表示就业市场下行风险增加。 国家领导人出席上合峰会相关活动 综 A 股气势如虹，成交额持续放量，短期内来看仍是多头格局。近 期需注意中报业绩的考验。 合 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 晨 美国副总统：对俄实施新制裁"并非不可能" 报 鲍威尔央行年会上的发言非常鸽派，美联储政策重心转向劳动 力市场，美元指数趋势走弱。 农产品（豆油/菜油/棕榈油） WTO 裁决支持印尼、生物柴油关税争端迎来转机 美国生物燃料 SRE 影响程度不及预期，美豆油触底反弹 有色金属（碳酸锂） "产能出清"网传文件获证实 磷酸铁锂行业闭门会在深圳召 宏观策略（股指期货） 短期去库的基本面有望提供底部支撑，回调后下游买盘集中释 放托底价格；而供应端不确定性有望带来上行驱动。 能源化工（烧碱） 8 月 22 日，山东地区液碱市场价格走势上行 9.3 阅兵或 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bearish [5] - Arbitrage: Neutral [5] 2) Core View of the Report - The overall non - ferrous commodities show signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with prices trending upward. Zinc prices follow this upward trend, but the spot market is weaker, and the spot discount has widened. Despite potential consumption growth, the supply pressure remains, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in China. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - **Spot**: The LME zinc spot premium is -$9.33 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,230 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan from the previous trading day, with a spot premium of -40 yuan per ton. The SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,200 yuan per ton, up 80 yuan, with a premium of -70 yuan per ton. The Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,210 yuan per ton, up 60 yuan, with a premium of -60 yuan per ton [1]. - **Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 22,300 yuan per ton, closed at 22,240 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 85,851 lots, and the open interest was 110,426 lots. The intraday high was 22,330 yuan per ton, and the low was 22,230 yuan per ton [2]. - **Inventory**: As of August 21, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 132,900 tons, a decrease of 2,600 tons from the previous period. The LME zinc inventory was 69,375 tons, a decrease of 1,875 tons from the previous trading day [3]. Market Analysis - **Trend**: Non - ferrous commodities are showing signs of transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, with prices trending upward. Zinc prices follow this upward trend, but the spot market is weaker, and the spot discount has widened [4]. - **Cost**: The imported TC is still rising, and smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, maintaining an upward trend [4]. - **Smelting**: The smelting profit, including by - product revenue, remains above 1,000 yuan per ton, so smelting enthusiasm persists, and the current and expected supply - side pressure remains unchanged [4]. - **Consumption**: Consumption was strong during the off - season and shows signs of transitioning to the peak season. However, even if the peak season is strong, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation in China, and the social inventory exceeds the historical average. If the peak - season consumption expectation fails, zinc prices will face significant pressure [4]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: Cautiously bearish. Even when other non - ferrous metals are strong, zinc prices are expected to be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be monitored [5]. - **Arbitrage**: Neutral [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The US economic data in August showed mixed results. The manufacturing and services PMIs rebounded unexpectedly, but the initial jobless claims increased more than expected. The inflation pressure rose, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [2][13]. - In the commodity market, different products had different trends. For example, the price of动力煤was expected to be stable in the short - term, while the price of豆粕was affected by the US harvest and China's purchase policy [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, higher than the expected 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8. The services PMI and the composite PMI also showed good performance [12]. - The Fed's Hammack indicated that the FOMC might not cut interest rates in September. The gold price fluctuated and closed down. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut cooled down [13]. - Investment advice: The gold price remained in a range - bound state [14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The total social electricity consumption in July reached 1.02 trillion kWh, with a year - on - year increase of 8.6%. The proportion of new energy increased significantly [15]. - A new policy - based financial instrument of 500 billion yuan might be launched, focusing on emerging industries and infrastructure [16]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to allocate long positions in various stock indexes evenly [17]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US and the EU took further measures to finalize the trade agreement, including plans to reduce US tariffs on European cars [19]. - The Atlanta Fed President still expected one interest rate cut this year and paid attention to the labor market [20]. - The US manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace since 2022, which supported the US dollar index [21]. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to rebound in the short - term [22]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a 39 - month high. The services PMI also performed well [23]. - The Fed's Collins said that if the labor market deteriorated, it might be appropriate to cut interest rates in the short - term. Hammack did not support an interest rate cut in September [24][25]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction, as the fundamental data remains resilient [26]. 3.1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 253 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on August 21, with a net injection of 124.3 billion yuan [27]. - Investment advice: If the short - term increase is high, it is recommended to pay attention to the short - hedging strategy [28]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - As of the week ending August 14, the net increase in US soybean export sales was 1.1369 million tons, in line with expectations [29]. - The Pro Farmer field inspection indicated a potential bumper harvest of US soybeans. The market focused on whether China would resume purchasing US soybeans [30]. - Investment advice: The price of soybean meal futures is expected to fluctuate. Pay attention to the US field inspection results and China's purchase policy [30]. 3.2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Indian importers started to buy palm oil from Colombia and Guatemala at a large discount [31]. - The Trump administration was expected to make a ruling on the exemption of small refineries [32]. - The palm oil export volume in Indonesia increased in June, and the inventory decreased slightly [33]. - Investment advice: After the adjustment, the US biodiesel policy might boost the price of the oil market. It is recommended to buy on dips, but pay attention to China's purchase of US soybeans [33]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Red Dates) - The main producing areas of red dates in Xinjiang were about to enter the sugar - increasing period. The futures price of the main contract CJ601 rose slightly [34][35]. - Investment advice: Due to the uncertainty of the new - season production, it is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the weather in the producing areas and the pre - festival stocking in the main sales areas [35]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch enterprises were affected by equipment maintenance, and the operating rate decreased. The inventory increased slightly [36]. - Investment advice: The CS11 - C11 spread was expected to strengthen when the new - season production was determined [37]. 3.2.5 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the five major steel products increased by 250,700 tons week - on - week as of August 21. The rebar inventory increased significantly [38]. - Investment advice: The steel price was expected to continue to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait for the market to correct [39]. 3.2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of deep - processed corn decreased, and the consumption also decreased [40]. - Investment advice: The 11 and 01 contracts of corn futures were expected to decline. Hold short positions and pay attention to the weather [41]. 3.2.7 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The total social electricity consumption in July increased by 8.6% year - on - year [42]. - Investment advice: The peak of the coal price was expected to have passed, and the price was expected to be stable in the short - term [43]. 3.2.8 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - The import of recycled steel raw materials in July was 21,700 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 12.10% and a year - on - year increase of 20.03% [44]. - Investment advice: The iron ore price was expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to pay attention to arbitrage opportunities [44]. 3.2.9 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - In July, China's cotton product export volume increased, but the export value decreased [45]. - India temporarily exempted cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30 [46]. - The Indian Cotton Association expected that the cotton production in 2025/26 would increase despite the decrease in the planting area [47]. - Investment advice: Before the new cotton was listed in China, the supply was tight, which supported the price in the short - term. However, the price was expected to be under pressure in the fourth quarter [49]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Trump reiterated that the US would not approve new photovoltaic or wind power projects [50]. - Investment advice: The futures price of polysilicon had strong support at 49,000 yuan/ton. It was recommended to take a bullish view on pull - backs and pay attention to the 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunity [51][52]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The export volume of primary polysiloxane in July decreased [53]. - Investment advice: The price of industrial silicon was expected to fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton. Pay attention to range - trading opportunities [54]. 3.2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 lead was at a discount of $39.48/ton. The domestic lead inventory decreased slightly [55]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [56]. 3.2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - On August 20, the LME 0 - 3 zinc was at a discount of $9.33/ton. The domestic zinc inventory decreased [57]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for single - side trading. Pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [58]. 3.2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The Zulu lithium project in Africa made a major breakthrough [59]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to look for opportunities to buy on dips and conduct positive arbitrage [60]. 3.2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Codelco in Chile lowered its 2025 copper production guidance [61]. - The S3 expansion project of First Quantum Minerals in Zambia was put into operation [62]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [63]. 3.2.16 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory increased by 252 tons on August 21 [64]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to pay attention to short - term trading opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities [67]. 3.2.17 Energy Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - On August 21, the closing price of CEA was 70.92 yuan/ton, with a 0.3% decrease [68]. - Investment advice: The CEA price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [69]. 3.2.18 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The weekly commercial volume of LPG in China increased, and the inventory decreased slightly [70][71]. - Investment advice: The PG price was expected to be strong in the short - term [73]. 3.2.19 Energy Chemicals (Natural Gas) - The US natural gas inventory increased week - on - week. Trump's statement on not approving new wind and photovoltaic projects might affect the demand for natural gas [74]. - Investment advice: The Nymex natural gas price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term and decline in the medium - term [75]. 3.2.20 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - As of August 21, the inventory of urea at Chinese ports increased by 37,000 tons week - on - week [76]. - Investment advice: The urea price was expected to be in a range - bound state. Pay attention to the new Indian tender and domestic demand [76]. 3.2.21 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - Two PTA plants in South China were planned to be shut down for maintenance [77]. - Investment advice: The PTA price was expected to be strong in the short - term. It is recommended to buy on dips [79]. 3.2.22 Energy Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - On August 21, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was adjusted locally [80]. - Investment advice: The caustic soda price was expected to be strong, but it is recommended to be cautious when chasing the price [81]. 3.2.23 Energy Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market continued to be weak [82]. - Investment advice: The pulp price was expected to fluctuate in the short - term [85]. 3.2.24 Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market price was slightly stronger [86]. - Investment advice: The PVC price was expected to be weak in the short - term due to India's anti - dumping ruling [86]. 3.2.25 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - An East China styrene plant with a capacity of 320,000 tons/year was planned to be shut down for maintenance in September [87]. - Investment advice: The styrene price was expected to continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand were expected to be balanced in September, but there was a risk of inventory accumulation in the long - term [88]. 3.2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle chip factories mostly increased [89]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the pressure brought by the resumption of production and new plant commissioning in late August and September [91]. 3.2.27 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of August 21, the total inventory of domestic soda ash producers was 1.9108 million tons, with a 0.71% increase [92]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to short the soda ash price on rallies and pay attention to supply disruptions [92]. 3.2.28 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - On August 21, the price of float glass in the Shahe market decreased [93]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of buying glass and shorting soda ash [94]. 3.2.29 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The global container ship order volume reached a record high, and the over - supply of shipping capacity was expected to last until 2029 [95]. - Investment advice: The container freight rate was expected to fluctuate in the short - term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [97].

Group 1: Zhongtong Express (中通快递) - Profitability under pressure, adjusted net profit for Q2 2025 decreased by 26.8% YoY, with a single ticket net profit of 0.21 CNY, down 12 cents YoY [2][7][10] - Revenue for Q2 2025 reached 11.8 billion CNY, a 10.3% increase YoY, while H1 2025 revenue was 22.7 billion CNY, up 9.8% YoY [7][9] - Market share increased to 19.5% in Q2 2025, with a package volume of 9.85 billion pieces, up 16.5% YoY [9][10] - Capital expenditure for 2025 expected to remain flat or slightly decrease, with H1 2025 capital expenditure at 3.1 billion CNY [9][10] - Mid-term dividend of 0.3 USD per share, with a payout ratio of 40% [9][10] Group 2: Yuanda Pharmaceutical (远大医药) - Revenue for H1 2025 was 6.107 billion HKD, a 1.0% increase YoY, with net profit of 1.169 billion HKD, slightly down by 5.9% YoY [3][12] - The nuclear medicine segment saw a revenue increase of 105.5% YoY, contributing significantly to overall growth [12][13] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.254 billion, 13.376 billion, and 14.779 billion HKD, with net profits of 2.185 billion, 2.462 billion, and 2.706 billion HKD respectively [14] Group 3: Yuandong Bio (苑东生物) - H1 2025 revenue was 654 million CNY, down 2.3% YoY, with net profit of 137 million CNY, down 6.8% YoY [4][16] - The company is focusing on self-research and strategic investments to accelerate innovation [16][17] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 1.501 billion, 1.795 billion, and 2.202 billion CNY, with net profits of 282 million, 345 million, and 431 million CNY respectively [18] Group 4: Pop Mart (泡泡玛特) - H1 2025 revenue reached 13.876 billion CNY, a 204.4% increase YoY, with net profit of 4.574 billion CNY, up 396.5% YoY [19][20] - The company is expanding its global presence, with significant growth in the Americas and Asia-Pacific regions [19][20] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 11.128 billion, 15.332 billion, and 20.295 billion CNY, with substantial YoY growth rates [21] Group 5: Nanjing Steel (南钢股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 28.944 billion CNY, down 14.06% YoY, while net profit increased by 18.63% to 1.463 billion CNY [23][24] - High-end products contributed significantly to profit, with advanced steel materials accounting for 29.77% of total sales [24] - The company is expanding its overseas operations, including a new coke production base in Indonesia [24] Group 6: Huayang Group (华阳集团) - H1 2025 revenue was 5.311 billion CNY, a 26.65% increase YoY, with net profit of 341 million CNY, up 18.98% YoY [26][27] - The automotive electronics and precision die-casting segments are driving growth, with significant new orders from major global clients [26][27] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 12.71 billion, 15.89 billion, and 19.17 billion CNY, with net profits of 870 million, 1.15 billion, and 1.43 billion CNY respectively [27] Group 7: Shenhuo Co. (神火股份) - H1 2025 revenue was 20.428 billion CNY, up 12.12% YoY, while net profit decreased by 16.62% to 1.904 billion CNY [29][30] - The aluminum business is the main contributor to revenue, while coal business faced significant price declines [30][31] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 2.41, 2.67, and 2.96 CNY per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 8, 7, and 7 [31] Group 8: Beixin Building Materials (北新建材) - H1 2025 revenue was 13.558 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.29% YoY, with net profit down 12.85% [33][34] - The gypsum board business is under pressure, while waterproof and paint businesses are showing growth [34][35] - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 3.935 billion, 4.464 billion, and 4.952 billion CNY, with corresponding EPS of 2.33, 2.64, and 2.93 CNY [35]

截至发稿，电投能源市值为443亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——核心产品净值仅剩7毛钱，昔日"公募一哥"任泽松怎么了？牛市踏空真相曝 光 （记者 王瀚黎） 每经AI快讯，电投能源（SZ 002128，收盘价：19.77元）8月21日晚间发布公告称，公司第八届第四次 董事会会议于2025年8月20日以现场加视频会议方式召开。会议审议了《关于补选公司第八届董事会专 门委员会委员的议案》等文件。 2024年1至12月份，电投能源的营业收入构成为：有色金属冶炼占比53.22%，煤炭行业占比35.45%，煤 电电热力行业占比5.8%，新能源发电行业占比5.53%。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish/bearish sentiment with limited trading operability on the market [1] - Aluminum: ★★★, suggesting a clear bullish/bearish trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Alumina: ★★★, representing a more distinct bullish/bearish trend and a suitable investment chance [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★, showing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Zinc: ★★★, meaning a more obvious bullish/bearish trend and a proper investment option [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆, denoting a slightly bullish/bearish inclination with limited market operability [1] - Tin: ★☆☆, implying a slightly bullish/bearish judgment with limited trading feasibility on the market [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★, indicating a distinct bullish/bearish trend and a relatively good investment opportunity [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish/bearish tendency with limited market operability [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★, representing a clearer bullish/bearish trend and a current appropriate investment chance [1] Report's Core View - The overall sentiment in the non - ferrous metals market is complex, with different metals showing various trends such as bullish, bearish, and oscillatory. Each metal's market is influenced by factors like supply - demand fundamentals, policy expectations, and inventory levels [2][3][4] Summary by Metals Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated downward, with the weighted index trading below the MA60 moving average. The spot copper price was 78,800 yuan, and the Shanghai premium shrank to 160 yuan. Hold short positions above 79,000 yuan [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum oscillated strongly. The social inventories of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods decreased by 11,000 tons and 8,000 tons respectively compared to Monday. It is expected to oscillate between 20,300 - 21,000 yuan in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy followed the trend of Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising by 100 yuan to 20,000 yuan. Alumina was in a weak oscillation, with support at 3,000 yuan [3] Zinc - Due to the supply - increase and demand - weak fundamentals, Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is the long - term strategy [4] Aluminum (again) - Aluminum price decline deepened the loss of recycled aluminum, expanding the reduction and suspension of production areas, which supported the market. However, the terminal consumption did not improve, and the rebound momentum was insufficient. It is expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to hold long positions near 16,600 yuan/ton [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel was in the middle - late stage of a rebound, and it is recommended to actively enter short positions. The stainless - steel social inventory decreased for six consecutive times, but there were still uncertainties in the market [7] Tin - Shanghai tin decreased in the afternoon session. The spot tin price dropped to 266,800 yuan. The market was divided, with a strong fundamental on one hand and concerns about medium - long - term demand on the other. Hold short - term long positions based on the MA60 moving average [8] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price oscillated. The market was active. The futures price was strong, and it is expected to oscillate. Risk control is necessary [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures first rose significantly and then retraced part of the gains. The fundamentals showed a situation of both supply and demand increasing, with limited improvement space. The current market is in an oscillatory pattern and may face a correction if policy expectations cool down [10] Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to oscillate. The N - type re -投料 price increased to 49,000 yuan/ton. The market is in an oscillatory adjustment stage supported by policy expectations [11]

日度报告——综合晨报 8 月 LPR 报价持稳 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-08-21 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 美联储会议纪要：大多数委员认为通胀比就业风险更令人担忧 美联储利率纪要显示大多数委员还是更关心通胀，因此维持利 率水平不变，美元继续震荡。 宏观策略（国债期货） 8 月 LPR 报价持稳 近期会议政策相对较为密集，预计股市仍将偏强运行，债市表 现应是偏弱的。短线以偏空思路对待，博弈反弹需谨慎。 综 农产品（豆粕） 合 Pro Farmer 田间巡查第二天结果 晨 报 Pro Farmer 田间巡查显示美豆单产前景良好，显示 CBOT 大豆涨 幅。国内豆粕需求好于预期，油厂豆粕库存同比下降。 有色金属（碳酸锂） 中国 7 月碳酸锂进口量同比减少 42.67% 多头挤兑式平仓、盘面跌停，当前价格已回吐了枧下窝停产以 来的大部分涨幅，而基本面并无实质性超预期利空。 能源化工（液化石油气） 韩国计划重组石脑油裂解产能 消息面影响下周三 PG 合约走强，基本面支撑有限。 | 杨云兰 | 高级分析师 （农产品） | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： [Table_Anal ...

Core Viewpoint - China Daye Non-Ferrous Metals (00661) anticipates a revenue of approximately RMB 29.306 billion for the six months ending June 30, 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of about 10.72% [1] - The company expects a gross profit of approximately RMB 514 million, a year-on-year decrease of about 37.47% [1] - A net loss of approximately RMB 6 million is projected for the period, contrasting with a profit of approximately RMB 148 million in 2024 [1] Revenue and Profit Analysis - The expected revenue decline is attributed to a combination of accelerated release of domestic and international smelting capacity and tight supply of copper concentrate [1] - The sustained low level of smelting processing fees and reduced product output have contributed to the decrease in revenue and narrowed profit margins [1] Financial Performance Outlook - The board of directors indicates that the anticipated net loss for the first half of 2025 is primarily due to the reduction in gross profit [1] - The significant drop in gross profit reflects the challenges faced by the company in the current market environment [1]