Group 1 - The capacity and inventory cycles are expected to bottom out and recover, enhancing the momentum of enterprise profit recovery [1][6][53] - The current capacity cycle has been in a downward trend since the second half of 2021 and is nearing its end, while the inventory cycle is also expected to transition from a bottoming phase to a replenishment phase within the year [1][2][11] - The recovery of the capacity cycle is typically driven by strong fiscal support policies, as seen in previous cycles [8][14] Group 2 - The downstream capacity cycle is approaching a turning point, with upstream capacity utilization still declining and the mining industry requiring more time for capacity reduction [2][15] - The inventory cycle shows significant differentiation across upstream, midstream, and downstream sectors, primarily due to varying demand improvements [2][15] - Demand improvements are concentrated in sectors with strong policy support, emerging industries, and export-oriented industries, while traditional sectors like real estate remain weak [15][16] Group 3 - The manufacturing sector is currently in a dual bottom phase for both capacity and inventory cycles, with the manufacturing capital expenditure declining significantly since its peak in 2021 [14][40] - The industrial sector is experiencing a passive destocking phase, with inventory levels expected to gradually recover as revenue growth improves [14][17] - The midstream equipment manufacturing sector is showing signs of recovery, driven by policy support and increased consumer demand for electronics and vehicles [30][37] Group 4 - The downstream consumer manufacturing sector is also in a destocking phase, with revenue growth rebounding since the beginning of 2024 [40][48] - Specific industries within the downstream sector, such as agricultural and food processing, are entering active replenishment phases, indicating a positive outlook for inventory levels [48][49] - The overall economic recovery will depend on the strength of consumer and investment demand, which will gradually transmit to the production side [53]

Core Insights - Industrial production in May showed a robust growth trend, with a year-on-year increase of 5.8% in the added value of large-scale industries, and a month-on-month increase of 0.61% after seasonal adjustments [1] - The equipment manufacturing sector significantly contributed to industrial growth, with a year-on-year increase of 9.0%, accounting for 54.3% of the total industrial production growth [2] - High-tech manufacturing continued to drive quality development, with a year-on-year increase of 8.6% in added value, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall industrial growth [3] Industrial Production Overview - In May, 35 out of 41 major industrial sectors reported year-on-year growth, resulting in a growth coverage of 85.4% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to May, the added value of large-scale industries increased by 6.3% year-on-year [1] Equipment Manufacturing Sector - The equipment manufacturing sector's added value growth of 9.0% was higher than the overall industrial growth by 3.2 percentage points, maintaining a share of 36.7% of total industrial output [2] - The automotive industry experienced a significant increase of 11.6% in added value, with other sectors like aerospace and electrical machinery also showing strong growth [2] Consumer Goods Manufacturing - The consumer goods manufacturing sector saw a year-on-year increase of 2.5%, with 10 out of 13 major categories reporting growth [2] - Notable growth was observed in sectors such as cultural and educational products, chemical fibers, and agricultural by-products, with respective increases of 10.1%, 6.1%, and 7.6% [2] High-Tech and Intelligent Manufacturing - High-tech manufacturing's added value increased by 8.6%, with significant contributions from sectors like aircraft manufacturing and electronic components [3] - The digital product manufacturing sector also showed strong growth, with a 9.1% increase in added value, driven by smart devices and electronic components [3] Green Manufacturing Trends - The production of new energy vehicles and related products saw remarkable growth, with increases of 31.7% for vehicles and 52.5% for lithium-ion batteries [3] - The supply of green materials also improved, with high-performance chemical fibers increasing by 92.2% [3] Policy Impact - The "two new" policies have effectively stimulated consumption, leading to significant growth in sectors such as motor manufacturing and shipbuilding [4] - The implementation of vehicle replacement subsidies contributed to an 11.3% increase in automotive production [4]

Economic Overview - In May, the industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year-on-year, while the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 6.4% year-on-year, indicating a stable economic performance [1][4] - From January to May, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) rose by 3.7% year-on-year, reflecting ongoing economic resilience and vitality [1] Consumer Market Dynamics - The retail sales growth in May accelerated by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month, reaching the highest monthly level since 2024 [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy and the "618" e-commerce promotion significantly boosted consumer spending, with specific categories like home appliances and communication equipment seeing substantial growth [2] - The service retail sector also showed positive trends, with a 5.2% increase from January to May, indicating a recovery in consumer services [2] Industrial Production Insights - In May, 35 out of 41 major industries reported year-on-year growth in added value, showcasing a broad-based industrial recovery [4] - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors grew by 9.0% and 8.6% respectively, outpacing overall industrial growth [4] - Notable increases were observed in the production of smart drones and industrial robots, with growth rates of 85.9% and 35.5% respectively, highlighting advancements in industrial automation [4] Policy and Future Outlook - The government emphasizes the importance of expanding domestic demand and strengthening the domestic circulation to ensure sustainable economic growth [1][6] - There is a strong expectation for continued monetary easing and fiscal support measures aimed at stimulating consumption and stabilizing the real estate market [6]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance forecasts of listed companies for the first half of the year, highlighting the trends in net profit changes and the overall market sentiment towards these companies [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance Forecasts - As of June 16, a total of 8 companies have announced their performance forecasts for the first half of the year, with 4 companies expecting to maintain profits, 3 expecting slight increases, and 1 expecting a slight decrease [2]. - Lixun Precision, a leader in the "fruit chain" sector, anticipates a net profit of approximately 6.475 billion to 6.745 billion yuan, representing a growth of 20% to 25% compared to the previous year [4]. - Ying Shi Innovation, Haiyang Technology, and Guqi Woolen Materials are also expected to see net profit increases exceeding 10% [5]. Group 2: Detailed Company Insights - Ying Shi Innovation forecasts a revenue of 3.214 billion to 3.815 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.38% to 57.10%, and a net profit of 494 million to 583 million yuan, reflecting a change of -4.65% to 12.49% [5]. - Haiyang Technology expects a revenue decline of 10.66% to 14.30% and a net profit change of -2.05% to 10.83% [6]. - Guqi Woolen Materials anticipates a revenue of 520 million to 580 million yuan, with a year-on-year change of 1.71% to 13.44%, and a net profit of 98 million to 107 million yuan, reflecting a change of 1.42% to 10.73% [6]. Group 3: Market Trends and Insights - The article notes that companies with strong performance in the first half are likely to attract more investment, especially those with high growth and favorable industry conditions [6]. - The report highlights five characteristics of stocks that performed well during the mid-year reporting season, including strong industry performance, significant growth above industry averages, low or mid-level valuations, clear growth catalysts for the second half, and high dividend payouts [7]. - The Chinese medicine industry is expected to show improved revenue and profit growth in the second quarter of 2025, with a stable cash flow and low volatility in profit growth [7].

今年以来，在一系列稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期等更加积极有为的宏观政策实施下，制造业和非 制造业景气水平均持续改善，新动能持续向好，企业对市场发展的信心保持稳定。 （作者系中国宏观经济研究院市场与价格研究所研究员） （文章来源：经济日报） 也要看到，外部环境依然复杂严峻，外贸回稳仍有不确定性，需求不足等制约因素仍然存在，企业效益 稳步恢复的基础还需继续巩固。未来，要进一步加强和巩固经济回升向好的基础。 持续实施各项稳经济政策措施。多措并举扩大内需，稳住国内基本盘，做强国内大循环。用好用足更加 积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策。加快地方政府专项债券、超长期特别国债等发行使用。创设新 的结构性货币政策工具，设立新型政策性金融工具，支持科技创新、扩大消费、稳定外贸等。加大资金 支持力度，扩围提质实施"两新"政策，加力实施"两重"建设。提高中低收入群体收入，大力发展服务消 费，增强消费对经济增长的拉动作用。 持续巩固和提升企业效益。培育壮大新质生产力，积极打造一批新兴支柱产业。推动科技创新和产业创 新融合发展，加快传统产业转型升级，坚持标准引领，规范竞争秩序。持续用力推进关键核心技术攻 关，创新推出债券市场的"科 ...

Core Viewpoint - The implementation of large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement policies in China has effectively supported consumption expansion, investment stabilization, transformation promotion, and improved livelihoods, with noticeable policy effects emerging throughout the year [1] Group 1: Consumption Growth - The consumer goods replacement policies have significantly stimulated consumption, with retail sales of communication equipment, home appliances, and furniture increasing by 26.9%, 19.3%, and 18.1% year-on-year respectively in the first quarter [1] - Retail sales of cultural and office supplies also saw a growth of 21.7%, indicating sustained rapid growth in these sectors [1] Group 2: Investment Growth - Investment in equipment and tools increased by 19% year-on-year in the first quarter, contributing 64.6% to the overall investment growth [1] - Investment growth in sectors closely related to the "two new" initiatives, such as consumer goods manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, manufacturing technology upgrades, and raw materials manufacturing, rose by 13.5%, 8.9%, 7.2%, and 4.3% respectively [1] Group 3: Challenges and Solutions - There are ongoing issues such as imbalances in the "two new" initiatives across different regions and sectors, and the need for improved efficiency in subsidy applications [1] - The government is urged to implement comprehensive measures to address these challenges to avoid negatively impacting policy effectiveness [1] Group 4: Coordination and Support Mechanisms - Local governments and relevant departments are encouraged to strengthen responsibility awareness and ensure the smooth implementation of the "two new" initiatives [2] - A national information platform is proposed to facilitate data sharing and improve the efficiency of subsidy applications and fund disbursement [2] Group 5: Financial Support and Regulation - There is a call for accelerated review and disbursement of allocated funds to alleviate financial pressure on enterprises and ensure subsidies reach consumers effectively [3] - Financial institutions are encouraged to provide preferential loans and simplify application processes to lower financing costs for consumers and businesses [3] Group 6: Public Awareness and Engagement - Local governments are tasked with promoting the progress and benefits of the "two new" policies through various outreach activities, ensuring effective communication and community engagement [3]

显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 20 期） 频率：每周 目前看，5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定，需求方面出口和消费相对较好，房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...

宏观月报 / 2025.05.31 ——5 月 PMI 数据解读 证券研究报告 分析师 陈兴 SAC 证书编号：S0160523030002 chenxing@ctsec.com 分析师 马骏 SAC 证书编号：S0160523080004 majun@ctsec.com 相关报告 1. 《PMI 节前还比较弱——1 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-01-31 2. 《PMI 节后表现如何？——2 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-03-01 3. 《出口带动需求回暖——3 月 PMI 数 据解读》 2024-03-31 4. 《生产高位扩张，价格持续上行—— 4 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-04-31 5. 《成本压力上升——5 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-05-31 6. 《PMI 还是弱了些——6 月 PMI 数据 解读》 2024-06-30 7. 《出口订单创同期新高——7 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-07-31 8. 《外需仍有回升——8 月 PMI 数据解 读》 2024-08-31 9. 《PMI 再现背离，经济景气如何？— —9 月 PMI 数据解读》 2024-09 ...

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for May 2025 is reported at 49.5%, a significant increase of 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, aligning with market expectations[2][4] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from last month, indicating a recovery in production activities[5][14] - New orders index increased to 49.8%, up 0.6 percentage points, reflecting improved demand conditions[5][14] - High-energy industries continue to decline, with the PMI dropping to 47.0%, down 0.7 percentage points, indicating ongoing challenges in these sectors[6] External Trade - The new export orders index rose to 47.5%, a significant increase of 2.8 percentage points, indicating a recovery in export activities following tariff reductions[21] - The import index increased to 47.1%, up 3.7 percentage points, suggesting improved import conditions[21] Service Sector - The service sector PMI increased slightly to 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points, remaining in the expansion zone, driven by increased tourism and hospitality activities during the May Day holiday[31] Construction Sector - The construction PMI is at 51.0%, down 0.9 percentage points, indicating a slowdown in expansion primarily due to weakened housing demand, although infrastructure projects are accelerating[35] - Special bond issuance has increased significantly, with 443.2 billion yuan issued in May, up from 230.1 billion yuan in April, supporting investment in infrastructure[35]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for May is 49.5%, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from April, indicating marginal improvement in manufacturing activity[1] - The production index rose to 50.7%, up 0.9 percentage points from April, returning to the expansion zone after briefly falling below 50%[3] - The new orders index recorded 49.8%, an increase of 0.6 percentage points from April, suggesting a slowdown in the decline of manufacturing demand[11] Group 2: Industry Performance - High-tech manufacturing PMI stands at 50.9%, maintaining expansion for four consecutive months[1] - Equipment manufacturing PMI increased to 51.2%, up 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a recovery in this sector[1] - The coal-fired power generation's cumulative output in May increased by 1.9% year-on-year, while cumulative output for the year decreased by 6.8%[6] Group 3: External Trade and Demand - The new export orders index for May is 47.5%, up 2.8 percentage points from April, reflecting cautious optimism in external demand[15] - The government plans to increase support for consumer goods replacement, raising the special bonds for this initiative from 150 billion yuan to 300 billion yuan[12] - The automotive market saw a retail scale of approximately 1.85 million vehicles in May, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%[13]