Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in China's manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, highlighting improvements in manufacturing PMI and challenges in the non-manufacturing sector due to seasonal factors and economic pressures [3][10]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for November is reported at 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in market confidence [3][4]. - New export orders index rose to 47.6%, up by 1.7 percentage points, reflecting a stabilization in manufacturing exports across various industries, including high-tech and consumer goods [5]. - The production index for manufacturing stands at 50%, indicating a return to the expansion zone after a brief contraction, with equipment manufacturing, high-tech manufacturing, and consumer goods all showing positive growth [4][5]. - Finished goods inventory index decreased to 47.3%, suggesting smoother sales activities for enterprises [6]. - Raw material prices are on the rise, with the purchasing price index at 53.6%, indicating upward pressure on production costs [8]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index fell to 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, primarily due to the seasonal decline in consumer-related services following the holiday peak [10][11]. - The construction industry showed improvement with a business activity index of 49.6%, indicating a slight recovery in construction activities [11]. - Despite the slowdown in non-manufacturing activities, there are positive indicators such as sustained financial activities and optimism in the construction sector, which may support economic stability towards year-end [11].

随着稳增长政策不断落地见效，以及10月末中美经贸会谈取得积极成果，国家统计局11月30日发布的11 月份中国制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.2%，比上月上升0.2个百分点。 受上月黄金周假期高基数影响，消费相关服务业活动呈现淡季回落特征。11月份，非制造业商务活动指 数为49.5%，比上月下降0.6个百分点。综合PMI产出指数为49.7%，比上月下降0.3个百分点。 中国物流与采购联合会特约分析师张立群认为，11月份制造业PMI指数小幅回升，表明市场信心有所改 善。"十五五"发展目标鼓舞人心，对市场信心产生积极影响。同时也要注意到制造业PMI指数仍处于荣 枯线之下，市场引导的需求收缩仍比较突出，经济仍有下行压力。 张立群强调，要围绕"十五五"良好开局进一步加强宏观经济政策逆周期调节力度，显著加大政府公共产 品、公共服务投资规模，有效有力带动企业订单增加，尽快扭转市场引导的需求收缩发展趋势。 尽管国际经济环境仍然复杂，但中美经贸磋商达成主要成果共识带动11月我国外贸环境有所改善，制造 业出口也趋稳运行。新出口订单指数为47.6%，较上月上升1.7个百分点，指数升幅较为明显。出口趋稳 运行带动制造业市场需求整 ...

1月27日，在山东省青州市经济开发区一家大马力拖拉机制造企业，工人在生产线上忙碌。 王继林摄（人民视觉） 国家统计局1月27日发布的数据显示，2024年，中国规模以上工业企业营业收入保持增长，实现利润总 额超7.4万亿元。国家统计局工业司统计师于卫宁表示，2024年，以高技术制造业为代表的工业新动能 利润较快增长，特别是一揽子增量政策及时出台后，工业经济呈现生产持续回升、效益不断恢复态势。 规上工业企业营收增长2.1% 2024年，工业企业经营情况如何？从全年数据看，规模以上工业企业实现营业收入137.77万亿元，比上 年增长2.1%；实现利润总额74310.5亿元，较上年下降3.3%。 从月度和季度数据看，工业企业2024年12月利润由降转增，四季度降幅明显收窄。2024年12月份，全国 规上工业企业利润由11月份同比下降7.3%转为增长11%；营业收入同比增长4.2%，较11月份加快3.7个 百分点。 国家统计局发布的数据还显示，超九成行业、六成产品实现增长。2024年，在工业41个大类行业中，39 个行业增加值较上年实现增长，增长面为95.1%，比上年大幅提高26.8个百分点；在统计的619种主要工 业 ...

宏观研究 [Table_ReportType] 专题报告 | ] [Table_A 解运亮 uthor宏观首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521040002 | | 联系电话：010-83326858 | | 邮 箱： xieyunliang@cindasc.com | 麦麟玥 宏观分析师 执业编号：S1500524070002 邮 箱： mailinyue@cindasc.com [Table_Title] 企业利润率出现不寻常的下滑 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 11 月 28 日 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲127 号 金隅大厦B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 [➢Table_Summary] 企业利润率出现不寻常的下滑。回顾历史来看，2020-2024 年，工业企业 在 1-10 月的营收利润率都较 1-9 月进一步提升。反观今年 1-10 月，工业 企业营收利润率出现了不同寻常的下滑。结合统计 ...

Profit Trends - In October, the profit of industrial enterprises decreased by 5.5% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous value of 21.6%[6] - The decline in profit growth is attributed to a combination of falling production volumes and rising prices, alongside a decrease in profit margins[7] - The profit margin for industrial enterprises in October was approximately 5.1%, down 0.3 percentage points from September, deviating from the typical seasonal increase observed in previous years[12] Sector Analysis - The mining sector experienced a revenue decline, with coal mining and non-metallic mineral extraction showing monthly revenue growth rates of -13.9% and -23.9%, respectively[20] - The beverage and alcohol manufacturing sector saw a profit growth rate of 3.0%, up 27.8 percentage points from the previous value, but the profit margin fell to 13.5%, down 4.8 percentage points[20] - Equipment manufacturing continues to lead in revenue growth and maintains a relatively high profit margin, benefiting from overseas expansion and supply chain restructuring[20] Economic Indicators - The Producer Price Index (PPI) in October showed a year-on-year decline of 2.1%, a slight improvement from September's decline of 2.3%[8] - Seasonal factors related to winter heating demand contributed to price increases in coal mining and processing, with prices rising by 1.6% and 0.8% respectively in October[20] - The overall industrial profit total for October was 577.1 billion yuan, marking a 103.1 billion yuan decrease from September, the lowest level for the same period since 2020[12] Future Outlook - Excluding base effects, there may be a marginal recovery in industrial enterprise profits in November and December, although the base effect could continue to exert downward pressure[21] - Factors such as prolonged holidays and trade tensions have impacted October's industrial profits, but these disturbances are expected to dissipate[21] Risk Factors - Potential risks include the possibility that domestic policy measures may not achieve the desired effects, and unexpected changes in international geopolitical situations could arise[25]

在制造业数字化转型过程中，数据基础薄弱仍是众多企业当前面临的主要障碍。大多数消费品制造业企 业缺乏清洁、可访问的历史数据档案，包括以往配方、质量保证报告和消费者测试结果等。另外，数据 孤岛问题突出。在企业内部，不同部门常常使用互不兼容的数据标准，这种数据分散化现状使得跨系统 集成异常困难。中小企业还往往面临更高的转型门槛，陷入"转型成本高、技术能力弱"的双重困境。针 对此，要多点发力，协同推进数字化转型，让制造业越来越强。 一方面，构建坚实的产业支撑体系。持续开展智能制造系统解决方案"揭榜挂帅"工作，发掘培育掌握核 心技术、深耕细分行业的专业化供应商。重点支持工业互联网平台体系建设，推动基础数据池、服务商 资源池、解决方案及产品池三大资源池整合与共享，为不同规模企业提供从精准诊断到标杆打造的全流 程服务。要鼓励各地因地制宜制定差异化发展路径。以制造业企业发展实际为出发点，健全制造业数字 化转型政策体系，推动地方结合实际出台配套政策，强化部地协同配合，统筹推进制造业数字化转型各 项工作。 从大数据分析到物联网技术，从节能改造到绿色转型，从自动化生产线到智能机器人……当前，我国制 造业更趋高端化、智能化、绿色化。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report analyzes the October 2025 PMI data, indicating that the manufacturing industry is under pressure and the economy still needs policy support. The manufacturing PMI has declined, with structural pressures intensifying, while the service industry has a mild uptick and the construction industry remains sluggish. Future economic improvement requires the implementation of policies such as anti - involution and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, showing a weakening overall manufacturing industry due to factors like reduced working days, trade frictions, and high inventory [1]. - **Structural Pressures**: All four major sub - indicators of the manufacturing PMI declined. The production index dropped to 49.7%, the new order index to 48.8%, the raw material inventory to 47.3%, and the employment index to 48.3%, indicating weakness in production, demand, and employment [2]. - **Enterprise Scale**: The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all in the contraction range. Large enterprises entered the contraction range for the first time in the second half of the year, and small and medium - sized enterprises have been below the boom - bust line for many months [2]. - **Demand Side**: External demand contracted significantly, with the new export order index dropping 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% and the import index falling 1.3 percentage points to 46.8%. Domestic demand was relatively stable, and the domestic market's support for demand increased [3]. - **Industry Categories**: New - energy - related industries had better prosperity, while basic raw material industries were weak. The production index of equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing decreased but remained in the expansion range, while the production index of basic raw material industries dropped below 48% [3]. - **PMI Quantity - Price Sub - Index**: The PMI quantity - price (ex - factory price index) sub - index weakened, reflecting the pressure of demand contraction and poor cost transmission. It may continue the contraction trend in the short term [5]. Service Industry - The service industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around the boom - bust line for many months. Consumer service industries recovered significantly, while production - related service industries fell into the contraction range [5]. Construction Industry - The construction industry PMI was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The decline of the real estate market and the slowdown of infrastructure investment were the main reasons for the industry's downturn, but infrastructure - related construction activities showed signs of acceleration [5]. Future Outlook - Economic recovery requires policy support. The implementation of anti - involution and domestic - demand - expansion policies in the fourth quarter will help improve the economy. The injection of new policy - based financial tools, the early use of part of the 2026 fiscal budget, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide impetus for the manufacturing industry [6].

Group 1 - The core focus of the city is on the "113388" work system and the "three major battles," emphasizing the "project-oriented" approach to drive rapid project initiation, construction, and production [1] - From January to September, the city's fixed asset investment increased by 6.4% year-on-year, with significant contributions from newly registered projects, injecting strong momentum into high-quality economic development [1] - Manufacturing investment is a key support for investment growth, with a year-on-year increase of 12.2%, contributing 4.9 percentage points to overall investment growth [1] Group 2 - The private economy continues to thrive, with private investment becoming the main driving force for growth, increasing by 20.5% year-on-year and accounting for 70.4% of total investment [3] - Excluding real estate development, private project investment grew by 25.7%, with manufacturing private investment making up 55.3% of total private investment, reflecting strong confidence among private enterprises [3] - Infrastructure investment grew by 8.4% year-on-year, contributing 2.0 percentage points to overall investment growth, with notable performance in the electricity, heat, gas, and water supply sectors [3] Group 3 - The acceleration of new project registrations is significant, with 466 new projects registered from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%, and completed investment growing by 46.1% [4] - Among the new projects, 212 projects with investments of over 100 million yuan saw a 55.9% increase in completed investment year-on-year [4] - Industrial new projects totaled 353, with a year-on-year growth of 27.0% and completed investment growth of 86.4%, highlighting the ongoing importance of project construction [4]

Core Viewpoints - The October PMI shows weakness primarily due to weak demand, with deeper issues stemming from high inventory levels impacting production indices [2][68] - The manufacturing PMI decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 49%, while the non-manufacturing PMI slightly rose to 50.1% [8][67] Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - The manufacturing PMI's decline is characterized by a more significant drop in the production index compared to new orders, with the production index falling to 49.7%, a decrease of 2.2 percentage points [2][9] - The new orders index saw a smaller decline of 0.9 percentage points, indicating a relatively stable demand compared to production [2][9] - The production index's drop is attributed to the retreat from a "production rush" effect and high inventory levels, which constrained the upward movement in October [14][68] Group 2: Demand Structure and External Factors - The demand structure shows a divergence between domestic and international markets, with new export orders significantly declining by 1.9 percentage points to 45.9%, marking one of the lowest points this year [3][18] - Industries heavily impacted by the drop in new export orders include high-tech and consumer goods, with their respective PMI indices also declining [3][18] - The fluctuation in tariff policies has contributed to the significant drop in new export orders, affecting overall manufacturing performance [3][69] Group 3: Domestic Demand and Investment Trends - Domestic demand remains resilient, but the acceleration of debt reduction has weakened investment demand, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries and construction [23][69] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, reflecting ongoing challenges, although recent fiscal policies are expected to alleviate some investment pressures [23][70] - The business activity expectation index for the construction sector has improved, indicating potential recovery in the near future [23][70] Group 4: Service Sector Performance - The service sector PMI showed a slight improvement, rising by 0.1 percentage points to 50.2%, driven by holiday travel and pre-"Double Eleven" promotional activities [51][29] - The employment index within the service sector increased, suggesting a positive trend in labor market conditions [55][51] Group 5: Future Outlook - Despite the current challenges in manufacturing, the high inventory levels and external disturbances are expected to ease, supported by proactive fiscal policies [4][35] - The overall manufacturing sector is anticipated to maintain resilience in the long term, with ongoing monitoring of marginal changes in manufacturing conditions [4][70]

Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is reported at 49.0%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, which is notably higher than the seasonal average decline of 0.4 percentage points observed from 2020 to 2024[2][5] - The production index fell by 2.2 percentage points to 49.7%, while the new orders index decreased by 0.9 percentage points to 48.8%[5][15] - The new export orders index dropped to 45.9%, down 1.9 percentage points, marking the second-lowest level since the introduction of high tariffs in April 2025[5][20] - Small enterprises experienced a notable decline in PMI, falling 1.1 percentage points to 47.1%, while large enterprises' PMI decreased to 49.9%[6] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing PMI for October 2025 is at 50.1%, slightly up from 50.0% in the previous month, driven by holiday consumption[2][28] - The service sector showed improvement, with indices for transportation, retail, and entertainment exceeding 60%, indicating strong performance in consumer-related services[28] - The construction PMI fell to 49.1%, but new orders and business activity expectations increased, suggesting a potential recovery in infrastructure activities[34] Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the construction sector may benefit from the introduction of 500 billion yuan in new policy financial tools and an additional 200 billion yuan in special bond issuance, which could support infrastructure investment[4][34] - The overall economic environment remains cautious due to external trade uncertainties and domestic demand stability, particularly in high-energy-consuming industries[16][20]