Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Soda ash: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High-level oscillation [4] - Silver: High-level oscillation [4] - Logs: Weak oscillation [6] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [6] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [6] - Soybean oil: Range operation [6] - Palm oil: Range operation [6] - Rapeseed oil: Range operation [6] - Soybean meal: Rebound [6] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [6] - Soybean No. 2: Rebound [8] - Soybean No. 1: Rebound [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [10] - PX: On the sidelines [10] - PTA: Oscillation [10] - MEG: On the sidelines [10] - PR: On the sidelines [10] - PF: On the sidelines [10] Report's Core Views - The macro利好 has landed, and black prices are returning to fundamentals. The iron ore market has an oversupply situation, and the coal and coke market is affected by policies and supply concerns. The steel market's price stop depends on production cuts and anti-"involution" policies. The glass market has inventory pressure and weak demand. The financial market has different trends for various indexes, and the precious metal market is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases and geopolitical risks. The light industry and agricultural product markets have their own supply and demand characteristics, and the soft commodity and polyester markets also face different situations [2][4][6][8][10] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation." The supply has room for impulse, and the demand is weak due to the low level of real estate new construction. Follow-up attention should be paid to four main lines that may trigger price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: Driven by multiple news, the price has risen. The market is concerned about demand-side policies, and the core contradiction lies in the low profit level of steel mills [2] - Rolled steel: The price is affected by the demand for steel, and the stop of the decline depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with weak demand and increasing inventory pressure. The solution depends on reducing the daily melting volume and the support of policies [2] Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: Different indexes have different trends, and the market is short-term consolidated with increasing bullish sentiment [4] - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by multiple factors such as central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies. It is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [4] Light Industry - Logs: The supply is increasing seasonally, while the demand is weakening. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Pulp: The cost support is weakening, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - Offset paper: There is supply pressure, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oil and Fat - Oils: The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The overall is expected to continue range operation [6] - Meal: Supported by trade optimism and the rise of US soybean futures, it is expected to rebound in the short term [6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The trading average weight may increase slightly, and the settlement price may rise. The market is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [8] Soft Commodities and Polyester - Rubber: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is improving. The inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to oscillate widely [10] - PX: The trade dispute risk is weakening, and the price follows the oil price [10] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand are marginally improved. The price follows the cost [10] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is worrying. The price is suppressed by the inventory pressure [10] - PR: The market may oscillate weakly [10] - PF: The market may be sorted narrowly [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Rebound [2] - Coking coal and coke: Rebound [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Oscillation [2] - Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 300 Index: Oscillation [2] - CSI 500 Index: Rebound [2] - CSI 1000 Index: Rebound [2] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [3] - 10-year Treasury bond: Uptrend [3] - Gold: High-level oscillation [3] - Silver: High-level oscillation [3] - Logs: Weak oscillation [4] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [4] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [4] - Soybean oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Palm oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Rapeseed oil: Range-bound operation [4] - Soybean meal: Rebound [4] - Rapeseed meal: Rebound [4] - No. 2 soybeans: Rebound [6] - No. 1 soybeans: Rebound [6] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a slight upward trend [6] - Rubber: Oscillation [8] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Oscillation [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The Fed's rate cut and Sino-US talks this week help boost risk appetite, with a warm macro atmosphere leading to a rebound in commodity prices at low levels [2][3][4][8] - The iron ore market remains in a pattern of loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, and the oversupply situation is difficult to reverse [2] - The coking coal and coke market focuses on whether demand-side policies will be introduced, and the core contradiction lies in the extremely low profit level of steel mills [2] - The steel market's price stop depends on the strict implementation of a production cut of over 5% in Q4 2025 and the intensity of anti-"involution" policies [2] - The glass market has a large inventory accumulation pressure, and the demand is weak overall [2] - The stock index market has a short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3] - The Treasury bond market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - The gold market is affected by central bank gold purchases, debt issues in the US, and geopolitical risks, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] - The log market has a supply increase and a demand decrease, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] - The pulp market has a weak cost support and poor demand, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4] - The edible oil market has a sufficient supply and weak demand, and it is expected to continue range-bound operation [4] - The meal market is boosted by trade optimism and US soybean prices, and it is expected to rebound in the short term [4][6] - The live pig market has a slight increase in the average trading weight, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend [6] - The rubber market has a decrease in inventory, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [8] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different supply and demand situations and are affected by factors such as oil prices and costs, with different investment suggestions [8] Summary by Categories Black Industry - Iron ore: The main line is "loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation", and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. Follow four main lines to monitor potential price revaluation [2] - Coking coal and coke: The market focuses on demand-side policies, and the core contradiction is the low profit of steel mills. Coke has started the third round of price increases [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: The static valuation is low, and the core lies in steel demand. The price stop depends on production cuts and policy implementation [2] - Glass: There are contradictions in the market, with high inventory accumulation pressure and weak demand. The daily melting volume needs to be reduced to solve the overcapacity [2] Financial Products - Stock index futures/options: The market has a short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [3] - Treasury bonds: The market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [3] - Gold: The pricing mechanism is shifting, and it is affected by central bank purchases, debt issues, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3] Light Industry - Logs: The supply increases seasonally, and the demand decreases as the downstream enters the off-season. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] - Pulp: The cost support is weak, and the demand is poor. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4] - Double-offset paper: The supply pressure exists, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [4] Oils and Fats - Oils: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to continue range-bound operation [4] - Meals: The market is boosted by trade optimism and US soybean prices, and it is expected to rebound in the short term [4][6] Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight increases slightly, and the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend due to factors such as demand and supply [6] Soft Commodities - Rubber: The inventory decreases, and the price is expected to oscillate widely due to factors such as production and demand [8] Polyester - PX: The supply and demand have pressure, and the price follows oil prices [8] - PTA: The cost support is weakened, and the supply and demand marginally weaken. The price follows costs [8] - MEG: The supply is at a high level, and the future supply and demand are expected to be in surplus. The price is suppressed by inventory pressure [8] - PR: The cost is boosted by macro news, and the price may rise slightly [8] - PF: The market is expected to be sorted warmly due to downstream demand and policy support [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly. Although there is no substantial improvement in downstream consumption, there is an expectation of crude steel production cuts, and steel prices will fluctuate subsequently [3]. - The current iron ore market has a loose supply - demand balance, and prices are supported by macro - expectations. After the impact of macro events subsides, iron ore prices are expected to continue to be under pressure [23]. - Recently, due to downstream replenishment and reduced mine production in some areas, coking coal inventory has improved, and the spot market is tight. Coke prices may be strong in the short term, but potential negative feedback risks from the steel industry will limit the rebound height of coking coal and coke prices [35]. - Ferroalloys face a contradiction between high inventory and weak demand. There is a large de - stocking pressure, and the black negative feedback risk is increasing [52]. - Soda ash is mainly priced by cost. With high - level supply expectations and high inventories, the upside potential is limited, but there is cost support at the bottom [62]. - After the price cut of glass, sales have improved, but the high inventory of the middle - stream is being depleted slowly. If there is no real production cut, the price of the 01 contract may decline towards the delivery date, while there is cost support and policy expectations in the long - term [90]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Futures prices and spreads**: On October 29, 2025, compared with the previous day, most steel futures contract prices increased, and some spreads changed. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3133 yuan/ton, up from 3091 yuan/ton on October 28 [4]. - **Spot prices and basis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed slight changes. The basis of some contracts decreased, such as the 01 rebar basis in Shanghai, which decreased from 129 yuan/ton on October 28 to 107 yuan/ton on October 29 [9]. - **Other ratios**: Ratios such as the volume - rebar difference, rebar - iron ore ratio, and rebar - coke ratio remained relatively stable [16][20]. Iron Ore - **Price data**: On October 29, 2025, iron ore futures contract prices increased compared with the previous day, while the basis of some contracts decreased. For example, the 01 contract closing price was 804.5 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, and the 01 basis decreased by 3 yuan/ton [24]. - **Fundamental data**: The average daily hot - metal production decreased slightly, the 45 - port inventory continued to accumulate, reaching 14423.59 tons, and the global shipping volume increased slightly [29]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Disk prices and spreads**: Coking coal and coke contract prices, basis, and spreads changed. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread increased by 9.5 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [40]. - **Spot prices and profits**: Coking coal and coke spot prices in different regions increased, and some import and production profits changed. The immediate coking profit increased from - 55 yuan/ton on October 28 to - 10 yuan/ton on October 29 [41]. Ferroalloys - **Silicon - iron data**: Silicon - iron basis, spreads, and spot prices changed. The silicon - iron basis in Ningxia decreased by 30 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [53]. - **Silicon - manganese data**: Silicon - manganese basis, spreads, and spot prices also changed. The silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia decreased by 62 yuan/ton on October 29 compared with the previous day [55]. Soda Ash - **Disk prices and spreads**: Soda ash contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads changed. The soda ash 01 contract increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.61% [63]. - **Spot prices**: Soda ash spot prices in different regions remained stable on October 29, and the difference between heavy and light soda ash varied by region [66]. Glass - **Disk prices and spreads**: Glass contract prices increased on October 29, 2025, and some spreads and basis changed. The glass 01 contract increased by 14 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, with a daily increase rate of 1.26% [91]. - **Sales data**: The sales in different regions showed fluctuations. For example, the sales in Shahe on October 28 were 159 [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The long - term upward logic of steel prices remains unchanged under the background of a gradually loosening macro - environment, but the real demand for steel is still weak in the short term and is difficult to improve substantially. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US talks and overseas macro - environment changes on market sentiment [2]. - The iron ore market is currently weak in reality, with the overall market in a tug - of - war situation, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. - For the black sector, it is still not pessimistic. It is considered more cost - effective to look for callback positions to do rebounds rather than continue to short. The subsequent height after the rebound needs further observation [9]. - Industrial silicon is subject to real - world constraints and is likely to fluctuate with the commodity environment, with short - term consolidation [13]. - The supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. Pay attention to the actual implementation of relevant news [15]. - The glass futures price is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile trend in the short term due to the interweaving of long and short factors [18]. - The soda ash price is expected to continue the narrow - range consolidation pattern in the short term, and attention should be paid to changes in device operation and downstream procurement rhythm [20]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3091 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton (- 0.29%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3058 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 22644 lots. The Tianjin and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3305 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan/ton (0.181%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 3296 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 8933 lots. The Le Cong and Shanghai spot prices increased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply and demand of rebar both increased, and the inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral performance. The output of hot - rolled coils slightly decreased, the demand improved marginally, the inventory was still at a high level, but the de - stocking process accelerated, and the inventory contradiction was slightly alleviated. The profitability of steel mills has significantly declined recently, and the molten iron output has significantly decreased, reducing the supply - side pressure [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 792.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.76% (+ 6.00), and the positions changed by - 9902 lots to 54.89 million lots. The weighted positions were 92.41 million lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 796 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 54.15 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 6.40% [4]. Strategy Viewpoints - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipment volume continued to increase month - on - month in the latest period and was at a high level in the same period. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output dropped below 240,000 tons. The port inventory continued to increase, and the steel mill inventory slightly increased. Overall, the iron ore price is under pressure, and the ore price will fluctuate [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On October 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.21% at 5790 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5720 yuan/ton, with a basis of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF601) closed flat at 5564 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5650 yuan/ton, with a basis of 86 yuan/ton [7]. Strategy Viewpoints - There are still supply - constraint expectations for ferroalloys. The current situation of steel mills is gradually becoming obvious, and there is a risk of "negative feedback". For the black sector, it is not pessimistic. Manganese silicon may follow the black - sector market, and its potential driving force may come from the manganese ore end [8][9]. Industrial Silicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 8955 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.11% (- 10). The weighted contract positions changed by - 1744 lots to 433,386 lots. The spot price of 553 in East China was 9300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was 345 yuan/ton; the spot price of 421 was 9650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the main contract was - 105 yuan/ton [11]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply - side pressure of industrial silicon continues, and the demand support weakens. The cost provides a bottom - support effect. It is easy to fluctuate with the commodity environment and will consolidate in the short term [13]. Polysilicon Market Information - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 54,355 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.27% (- 145). The weighted contract positions changed by + 4813 lots to 255,836 lots. The average spot prices of N - type granular silicon, N - type dense material, and N - type re - feeding material were flat, and the basis of the main contract was - 1375 yuan/ton [14]. Strategy Viewpoints - The supply pressure of polysilicon may be marginally alleviated. The downstream operating rate is expected to be stable. The supply - demand pattern may improve, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. Pay attention to the implementation of relevant news [15]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: The main contract of glass closed at 1113 yuan/ton, up 1.64% (+ 18). The inventory of float - glass sample enterprises increased by 233.74 million cases (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 25,212 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders reduced 86,221 short positions [17]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The glass market is mainly trading low - price goods, the demand recovery is slow, and the raw - material soda ash price provides cost support. The glass futures price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [18]. Soda Ash - Market Information: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1239 yuan/ton, down 0.56% (- 7). The inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises increased by 0.16 million tons (+ 3.64%) week - on - week. The top 20 long - position holders reduced 2798 long positions, and the top 20 short - position holders increased 9227 short positions [19]. - Strategy Viewpoints: The supply of soda ash is stable, the cost pressure increases, and the downstream replenishment demand is mainly for low - price and rigid needs. The soda ash price is expected to consolidate narrowly in the short term [20].

Report Overview - Report Title: "Black Industry Chain Weekly Report" [1] - Report Date: October 27, 2025 [2] - Report Issuer: Huabao Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - **Overall Black Market**: The black market is expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound. The macro - environment has improved, and steel production restrictions support price rebounds. However, attention should be paid to macro policies and downstream demand [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate within a range. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly decreasing, but the pressure on inventory accumulation is within an acceptable range. The price of the main contract of Dalian iron ore is expected to be in the range of 760 - 785 yuan/ton, corresponding to an external market price of about 103 - 105 US dollars/ton [10]. - **Coal and Coke**: The short - term supply and demand of coal and coke fluctuate marginally, and the inventory pressure is temporarily not large. The price should be treated with cautious optimism. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in the coal - coke - steel industry and changes in imported coal customs clearance [11]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferroalloys remains relatively loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure and decline weakly. Attention should be paid to domestic macro - policies, terminal demand, steel mill profits, production, and domestic production restrictions [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The prices of most black futures and spot products showed different degrees of changes last week. For example, the price of the main contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 1.44%, and the price of the main contract of coke increased by 4.86% [7]. 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Logic**: The utilization rate of blast furnace iron - making capacity of 247 steel mills decreased slightly last week. The macro - environment improved, and Hebei launched a heavy - pollution weather emergency response, which is beneficial to the fundamentals of steel in the short term [9]. - **Viewpoint**: The black market is expected to operate at a low level with a short - term rebound. - **Later Attention**: Macro policies and downstream demand. 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 207.07 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 5.91 million tons; the apparent demand was 226.01 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 6.26 million tons [14]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 622.11 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 18.94 million tons [21]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Production and Apparent Demand**: Last week, the production was 322.46 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0.62 million tons; the apparent demand was 326.73 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 11.18 million tons [25]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory was 414.92 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 4.27 million tons [29]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The overseas ore shipment increased slightly week - on - week, and the arrival volume decreased rapidly for two consecutive weeks after reaching a new high this year [10]. - **Demand**: The domestic demand decreased week - on - week. The blast furnace operating rate increased, but the molten iron output decreased. The loss range of steel mills expanded, and the profitability rate dropped to the lowest level of the year [10]. - **Inventory**: The steel mill inventory increased slightly, and the port inventory continued to accumulate [10]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to fluctuate within the range of 760 - 785 yuan/ton for the main contract of Dalian iron ore [10]. 3.3.3 Coal and Coke - **Supply**: Some coal mines in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia stopped production due to safety and mining area governance issues last week, and the coal production decreased [11]. - **Demand**: The profit of steel mills decreased, and the molten iron output decreased slightly [11]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory of coke and coking coal increased slightly [82][89]. - **Price**: The second - round price increase of coke has not been finalized, and the price of coking coal is expected to be treated with cautious optimism [11]. 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - **Supply**: The production and operating rate of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron enterprises showed different degrees of changes, but the overall supply was still relatively loose [12]. - **Demand**: The weekly demand for silicon - manganese and silicon - iron of five major steel types increased slightly, but the demand may weaken in the future [12]. - **Inventory**: The silicon - manganese inventory continued to increase, and the silicon - iron inventory decreased slightly [12]. - **Cost**: The cost support of silicon - manganese and silicon - iron was relatively stable [12]. - **Price Forecast**: The price is expected to be under pressure and decline weakly [12].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - **Black Industry**: Iron ore, coal coke, and rolled steel are rated as "Oscillating"; glass and soda ash are rated as "Adjusting" [2] - **Financial Industry**: Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and 2-year, 5-year treasury bonds are rated as "Oscillating"; CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "Rebounding"; 10-year treasury bond is rated as "Upward"; gold and silver are rated as "High-level Oscillating" [2][3][4] - **Light Industry**: Logs are rated as "Treated Bullishly"; pulp is rated as "Bottom Consolidation"; offset paper is rated as "Weak Oscillation" [5] - **Oil and Fats**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are rated as "Wide-range Oscillation" [5] - **Feedstuffs**: Soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No. 2, and soybean No. 1 are rated as "Rebounding" [5][6] - **Agricultural Products**: Live pigs are rated as "Oscillating Bullishly" [6] - **Soft Commodities**: Rubber is rated as "Oscillating"; PX, MEG, PR, and PF are rated as "On the Sidelines"; PTA is rated as "Oscillating" [7] 2. Core Views - **Black Industry**: The iron ore market has an oversupply situation that is difficult to reverse, and the steel market's demand is weak. The coal coke market is affected by safety inspections and low steel mill profits. The glass market is weak with increasing inventory [2] - **Financial Industry**: The stock index market is in short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and the treasury bond market has a slight upward trend. The gold market is affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks [3][4] - **Light Industry**: The log market has improved demand and cost support, while the pulp market has weak demand and cost pressure [5] - **Oil and Fats**: The oil and fats market is affected by high inventory and uncertain demand, showing wide-range oscillation [5] - **Feedstuffs**: The feedstuffs market is affected by weather conditions and supply-demand relationships, with short-term rebound expectations [5][6] - **Agricultural Products**: The live pig market has sufficient supply and weak demand, with short-term weak oscillation [6] - **Soft Commodities**: The rubber market is affected by weather and demand, showing wide-range oscillation. The polyester market has supply-demand and cost uncertainties [7] 3. Summary by Categories Black Industry - **Iron Ore**: Supply is expected to remain high, and the market is in an oversupply situation. The price may hit a new low if negative feedback occurs. Four main lines should be closely monitored [2] - **Coal Coke**: The market is concerned about demand-side policies. Supply concerns have increased, and the low profit of steel mills may lead to production cuts [2] - **Rolled Steel**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the demand is weak. The price stop-falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - **Glass**: The market is weak with increasing inventory. The possibility of cold repair is increasing, and the price may continue to oscillate weakly [2] Financial Industry - **Stock Index Futures/Options**: The market is in short-term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment. It is recommended to hold long positions [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: The yield of 10-year treasury bonds has increased slightly, and the market has a slight upward trend. It is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Gold and Silver**: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and it is affected by central bank purchases, interest rate policies, and geopolitical risks. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [3][4] Light Industry - **Logs**: The demand has improved, and the cost support has increased. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to be bullish [5] - **Pulp**: The cost support has weakened, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - **Offset Paper**: The supply is stable, and the demand has not improved. The price is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - **Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, and Rapeseed Oil**: The market is affected by high inventory and uncertain demand, showing wide-range oscillation. Attention should be paid to weather and production and sales changes [5] Feedstuffs - **Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Meal, Soybean No. 2, and Soybean No. 1**: The market is affected by weather conditions and supply-demand relationships, with short-term rebound expectations. Attention should be paid to weather and trade negotiations [5][6] Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the supply and demand situation [6] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: The supply is affected by weather, and the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [7] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF**: The market has supply-demand and cost uncertainties. Attention should be paid to the price trends [7]

股票代码：601011 股票简称：宝泰隆 编号：临2025-054号 宝泰隆新材料股份有限公司 2025 年 1-9 月主要经营数据的公告 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、 误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承 担法律责任。 宝泰隆新材料股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）根据上海证券交 易所《<上市公司自律监管指引第 3 号——行业信息披露>第十三号— —化工》的相关规定，现将公司 2025 年 1-9 月主要经营数据披露如 下： 1 分行业 主要 产品 经营指标 单 位 经营数据 （2025 年 1-9 月） 经营数据 （2024 年 1-9 月） 比上年同期 增减（%） 煤焦行业 焦炭 （ 含 焦 粉 、 焦 粒） 营业收入 元 1,371,431.88 804,387,908.91 -99.83 营业成本 元 1,421,691.86 979,172,846.51 -99.85 生产量 吨 0.00 453,093.00 -100.00 销售量 吨 1,286.81 457,171.37 -99.72 库存量 吨 3,006.51 10,528.89 -71 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation adjustment [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 50: Oscillation [4] - CSI 300: Oscillation [4] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5 - year treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10 - year treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: High - level oscillation [4] - Silver: High - level oscillation [4] - Logs: Bullish outlook [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak oscillation [5] - MPOB oils: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide - range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [5] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation with a bearish bias [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation with a bullish bias [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: Wait - and - see [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: Wait - and - see [9] - PR: Wait - and - see [9] - PF: Wait - and - see [9] Group 2: Report's Core Views - The iron ore market is characterized by loose supply, low demand, and port inventory accumulation, with the pattern of oversupply difficult to reverse. However, short - term prices have support due to potential macro - sentiment improvement [2] - The coking coal market is affected by macro - policy expectations and supply concerns from safety inspections, with the core contradiction being the low profit of steel mills [2] - The steel market has supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to continue to oscillate and adjust, with the market awaiting policy boosts [2] - The glass market is in a weak state, with demand dragged down by the real - estate sector, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - The stock index market is in short - term consolidation with rising bullish sentiment, and it is recommended to hold long positions [4] - The treasury bond market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - The precious metal market, especially gold and silver, is expected to oscillate at high levels, influenced by factors such as central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] - The log market is expected to be bullish, with improved demand, rising cost expectations, and potential optimization of delivery rules [5] - The pulp market is expected to consolidate at the bottom due to weak cost support and poor demand [5] - The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide - range oscillation, affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand [5] - The粕类 market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias due to seasonal supply pressure and weak demand [5][8] - The live - pig market is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias in the short term, but the price increase is limited due to sufficient supply and weak demand [8] - The rubber market is expected to oscillate widely, with supply affected by weather and demand recovering [9] - The PX, PTA, MEG, PR, and PF markets have different trends, mainly affected by factors such as oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost [9] Group 3: Summary by Related Categories Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Supply is loose with high port arrivals expected, and the oversupply pattern persists. Trade frictions may cause price drops, but macro - sentiment improvement provides short - term support. Four key factors need to be monitored for price re - pricing [2] - **Coking coal**: Macro - policy expectations are high, but supply concerns from safety inspections have limited impact on the market. The low profit of steel mills is the core issue [2] - **Rolled steel and rebar**: Supply pressure is relatively large, and the market is waiting for demand recovery in October. High inventory and weak demand require rapid de - stocking for price stabilization [2] - **Glass**: The market is weak, with low demand due to the real - estate downturn. Inventory is at a high level, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] Financial Products - **Stock index futures/options**: The market is in short - term consolidation, and it is recommended to hold long positions as bullish sentiment rises [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The market has a slight upward trend, and it is recommended to hold long positions lightly [4] - **Precious metals**: Gold and silver are expected to oscillate at high levels, driven by central bank buying, interest - rate policies, and geopolitical risks [4] Light Industry - **Logs**: Demand is improving, cost is expected to rise, and delivery rules may be optimized, making the market bullish [5] - **Pulp**: Cost support is weak, and demand is poor, so the market is expected to consolidate at the bottom [5] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, demand is general, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [5] Oil and Fats - The market is affected by factors such as inventory, production, and demand, and is expected to continue wide - range oscillation [5] Agricultural Products - **粕类**: Seasonal supply pressure is high, and demand is weak, so the market is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [5][8] - **Live pigs**: Supply is sufficient, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate with limited upward space [8] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Supply is affected by weather, demand is recovering, and the market is expected to oscillate widely [9] - **PX, PTA, MEG, PR, PF**: These markets are mainly affected by oil prices, supply - demand relationships, and cost, with different trends [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The steel market is currently focused on the Fourth Plenary Session. Steel prices may experience a slight rebound, but the weak fundamentals limit the upside potential, and a subsequent decline is likely. Short - term outlook is for a rebound, while the medium - to - long - term remains weak [3]. - The iron ore market is operating weakly under macro - sentiment and fundamental pressures. The supply is strong, and demand is weak. The price may be supported if there are positive policy signals [18]. - The coking coal market has strong bottom support due to tight resources and policy expectations, but the rebound space is limited by downstream contradictions. The price rebound depends on the downstream steel supply - demand balance [30]. - The ferroalloy market is under pressure due to weak downstream demand and high inventory. Without unexpected stimulus policies, prices will remain under pressure [48]. - The soda ash market has supply pressure in the long - term. Although exports are better than expected, high inventory restricts the price, with limited downside due to cost support [61]. - The glass market has weak demand and high inventory, and prices are suppressed. The implementation of the coal - to - gas project in Shahe and production line ignition plans need to be monitored [86]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the closing price of rebar 01 contract was 3068 yuan/ton, up from 3047 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 52 yuan/ton, up from - 57 yuan/ton [4]. - The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3247 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3219 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 - 05 month - spread was - 12 yuan/ton, up from - 17 yuan/ton [4]. - The rebar - to - iron ore ratio and rebar - to - coke ratio remained stable on the 22nd compared to the 21st [15]. - **Spot Prices and Basis** - The aggregated rebar price in China was 3215 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up slightly from 3212 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 142 yuan/ton, down from 153 yuan/ton [7]. - The aggregated hot - rolled coil price in Shanghai was 3280 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up from 3270 yuan/ton on the 21st. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was 33 yuan/ton, down from 51 yuan/ton [9]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Basis** - On October 22, 2025, the 01 contract closed at 774 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan from the 21st. The 01 basis was 7.5 yuan/ton, down 2.5 yuan from the 21st [19]. - The price of Rizhao PB powder was 779 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 2 yuan from the 21st [19]. - **Fundamentals** - The daily average pig - iron output was 240.95 million tons on October 17, 2025, down 0.59 million tons week - on - week. The 45 - port inventory was 14278.27 million tons, up 253.77 million tons week - on - week [24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Mongolian 5) was 1238 yuan/ton, up 38 yuan week - on - week. The coking coal 09 - 01 month - spread was 153 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the 21st [35]. - The coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1594 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st. The coke 09 - 01 month - spread was 220 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan from the 21st [35]. - **Spot Prices and Profits** - The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur primary coking coal was 1550 yuan/ton on the 22nd, up 20 yuan week - on - week. The immediate coking profit was 31 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the 21st [36]. Ferroalloy - **Silicon Iron** - On October 22, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was - 8 yuan, down 14 yuan from the 21st. The silicon iron 01 - 05 month - spread was - 60 yuan, down 24 yuan from the 21st [49]. - The silicon iron spot price in Ningxia was 5280 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan from the 21st [49]. - **Silicon Manganese** - The silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 220 yuan on the 22nd, down 64 yuan from the 21st. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 month - spread was - 38 yuan, down 4 yuan from the 21st [52]. - The silicon manganese spot price in Inner Mongolia was 5680 yuan/ton, unchanged from the 21st [52]. Soda Ash - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1308 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 62 yuan, up 1 yuan from the 21st [62]. - **Spot Prices** - The heavy - soda ash market price in North China was 1300 yuan/ton on the 22nd, unchanged from the 21st. The heavy - soda ash to light - soda ash price difference in North China was 100 yuan/ton [65]. Glass - **Prices and Spreads** - On October 22, 2025, the glass 05 contract closed at 1241 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the 21st. The 05 - 09 month - spread was - 89 yuan, down 3 yuan from the 21st [86]. - **Sales and Production** - On October 21, 2025, the sales - to - production ratio in Shahe was 59%, in Hubei was 86%, in East China was 84%, and in South China was 98% [87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillation [2] - Coking coal: Oscillation [2] - Rolled steel: Oscillation [2] - Rebar: Oscillation [2] - Glass: Adjustment [2] - Soda ash: Adjustment [2] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - 2-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 5-year Treasury bond: Oscillation [4] - 10-year Treasury bond: Upward [4] - Gold: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Silver: Strong bias oscillation [4] - Log: Strong bias treatment [5] - Pulp: Bottom consolidation [5] - Offset paper: Weak bias oscillation [5] - Soybean oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Palm oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Rapeseed oil: Wide-range oscillation [5] - Soybean meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Rapeseed meal: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 2: Oscillation bias short [8] - Soybean No. 1: Oscillation [8] - Live pigs: Oscillation bias strong [8] - Rubber: Oscillation [9] - PX: On the sidelines [9] - PTA: Oscillation [9] - MEG: On the sidelines [9] - PR: On the sidelines [9] - PF: On the sidelines [9] Core Views - The iron ore market continues to face an oversupply situation, but short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. The coal and coke market is affected by macro policies and supply concerns, with the core contradiction being the low profit level of steel mills. The steel market has supply and demand contradictions and is expected to continue to oscillate and adjust. The glass market is weak, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly. The financial market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions in stock index futures. The precious metal market is expected to show strong bias oscillation due to various factors such as interest rate policies and geopolitical risks. The forestry product market has positive factors for logs, while pulp prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom. The oil and fat market is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and the meal market is expected to oscillate with a short bias. The agricultural product market for live pigs is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The soft commodity market for rubber is expected to show wide-range oscillation, and the polyester market has different trends for each product [2][3][4][5][8][9]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Supply is expected to remain high, and the oversupply pattern is difficult to reverse. However, short-term prices are supported by macro sentiment. Four main lines should be closely monitored for potential price revaluation [2]. - Coking coal: Affected by macro policy expectations and supply concerns, the core contradiction is the low profit level of steel mills. The second round of coke price increases is difficult to implement [2]. - Rolled steel and rebar: Supply pressure is relatively large, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and prices need to cooperate with rapid inventory reduction to stabilize [2]. - Glass: The spot market is weak, and the possibility of cold repair is increasing. The demand is dragged down by the real estate sector, and short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [2]. Financial Market - Stock index futures/options: The market shows short-term rebounds and increased bullish sentiment, with suggestions to hold long positions [4]. - Treasury bonds: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds is down, and the market shows a small rebound. It is recommended to hold long positions in Treasury bonds with a light position [4]. - Precious metals: Gold and silver are expected to show strong bias oscillation due to factors such as interest rate policies, geopolitical risks, and physical demand [4]. Forestry Products - Logs: Spot prices are stable, costs are expected to rise, demand is marginally improved, and the delivery specifications are expected to be optimized. Overall, logs are treated with a strong bias [5]. - Pulp: Spot prices are stable, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to consolidate at the bottom [5]. Oil and Fat Market - Oil and fat: The market is affected by factors such as high inventory, production changes, and policy expectations. It is expected to continue wide-range oscillation, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the production and sales of palm oil [5]. - Meal: The market faces seasonal supply pressure and uncertain factors in South American soybean growth. It is expected to oscillate with a short bias, and attention should be paid to the sowing of Brazilian soybeans and the import and arrival of soybeans [8]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. The price of large pigs is relatively firm, while the price of standard pigs may be under pressure. Short-term prices are expected to oscillate weakly [8]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: Supply is affected by weather conditions, and demand is improving. Inventory is decreasing, and prices are expected to show wide-range oscillation [9]. - Polyester products: Each product has different trends. PX, MEG, PR, and PF are on the sidelines, PTA oscillates, and the market for polyester bottle chips rebounds weakly [9].