Group 1 - The A-share market saw a general increase in major indices last week, but trading volume was insufficient, with the average daily turnover dropping to 1.70 trillion yuan [1][5] - The cyclical sector performed well due to supply tightening and rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with precious metals leading the gains [1][5] - The market style was characterized by cyclical > financial > growth > consumption [1][5] Group 2 - Domestic news indicates that the capital space and leverage limits for quality brokerages are expected to open up, which will facilitate the entry of significant incremental capital into the market [1][5] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is anticipated to set a relatively positive fiscal policy for next year, particularly in new areas of fiscal support that will directly impact the recovery of certain sectors [1][5] Group 3 - The spring market focus is on technology and manufacturing, with an emphasis on domestic policy direction [2][6] - The technology sector is believed to be in the later stages of adjustment, with historical data suggesting limited further downside potential after a 40-day correction and a 25% drop in the industry index [2][6] - Concerns regarding AI investment returns need to be alleviated for the technology sector to regain strength, with advancements in large model capabilities and AI commercialization being key catalysts [2][6] Group 4 - The global manufacturing sector is expected to experience a synchronized recovery, benefiting from both fiscal and monetary easing [2][6] - There is a focus on manufacturing within the export chain (non-ferrous metals, power grid equipment, engineering machinery) and related sectors in emerging markets (home appliances, automotive) [2][6] - Non-bank sectors (insurance, brokerages, financial IT) and high-dividend stocks (banks, coal, white goods) are also expected to benefit from liquidity-driven opportunities [2][6]

行业研究丨深度报告丨家用电器 [Table_Title] 如何看新兴市场白电景气度与格局？ %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 受益于居民户均收入突破临界拐点，过去几年东南亚、拉美及中东非等新兴市场家电渗透率迎 来加速提升，行业长期保持高景气，同时国内企业凭借深入的本地化布局与产品及性价比等方 面优势正逐步抢占日韩系与欧美系企业份额。展望后续，国内市场面临潜在的基数与需求前置 压力，增长中枢或边际放缓，海外成熟地区家电也已基本进入存量阶段，而新兴市场当前渗透 率仍处于相对低位，且国内品牌保有较大份额提升潜力，有望为国内家电企业规模增长贡献长 期势能。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈亮 SAC：S0490517070017 SFC：BUW408 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_Title2] 如何看新兴市场白电景气度与格局？ [Table_Summary2] 新兴市场家电景气度如何？ 国内出口表现与上市公司财报的交 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - **Industry**: Outbound Supply Chain, E-commerce Logistics, Manufacturing, Home Appliances, Cement, Pet Food - **Companies**: Financial Securities, Jitu Express, Beibu Gulf Port, Xiaogoods City, Zhongchong Co., Ltd. Core Points and Arguments - **Outbound Supply Chain Growth**: Financial Securities recommends leading companies in the outbound supply chain due to benefits from U.S. fiscal expansion, capital inflow from emerging markets, and a shift in policy focus towards manufacturing, which will drive growth through increased industry concentration and global demand recovery [1][3][4] - **"Running Horse 50" Portfolio**: The portfolio is constructed using the RCA competitive advantage index to select export-advantaged products, resulting in an excess return of approximately 4% since its launch [1][5] - **Jitu Express Performance**: Jitu Express is experiencing significant growth in Southeast Asia and Latin America, particularly driven by e-commerce platforms like TikTok, with package growth rates reaching 79% in Q3 [1][6][7] - **Beibu Gulf Port Growth**: The port has seen a 22.7% increase in cargo throughput and double-digit growth in container throughput, benefiting from trade with ASEAN countries [1][7] - **Focus on Mechanical Products**: In the current interest rate cut cycle, attention is drawn to mechanical products with significant alpha attributes, particularly tools and pet sales, which are showing signs of recovery [1][8][9] - **Home Appliance Export Trends**: The home appliance export chain is expected to show a trend of internal stability and external strength by 2026, with emerging markets projected to achieve double-digit growth [1][13][14] - **Xiaogoods City Export Performance**: Xiaogoods City reported a 26% year-on-year increase in import and export scale, with exports reaching 550 billion yuan [1][19][21] - **Cement Industry Opportunities**: The cement industry is focusing on overseas expansion, particularly in Southeast Asia and Africa, where per capita cement demand is still low [1][16][17] - **Zhongchong Co., Ltd. Global Supply Chain**: The company has established factories in various countries, benefiting from tariff exemptions under trade agreements, and is expected to see significant production value growth in the coming years [1][22][23] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - **Market Adjustment Factors**: The market is experiencing adjustments due to unresolved overseas liquidity issues and uncertainties regarding future monetary policy, with the Shanghai Composite Index seen as a potential bottoming point around 3,800 [2] - **Emerging Market Investment**: Emerging markets like Mexico are benefiting from capital outflows from the U.S., leading to increased local employment and consumption [1][4] - **Pet Food Market Growth**: The global pet food market is valued at $150 billion, with significant growth potential for Chinese brands in overseas markets [1][23]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the home appliance industry is expected to face a slowdown in growth due to high base effects from national subsidies in 2026, but leading companies are projected to maintain stable performance [2] - The small appliance sector is anticipated to see continued improvement in average prices due to ongoing policy support, with significant growth potential in the robotic vacuum cleaner market [2] - The black appliance segment is expected to benefit from product upgrades leading to higher average prices and improved profitability, with overseas market share likely to continue increasing [2] - The two-wheeler market is projected to grow in 2026 with the full implementation of new regulations, as smaller manufacturers exit the market, allowing leading companies to gain market share, particularly in overseas markets [2] 2025 Annual Summary - The home appliance sector underperformed overall, with an 8.1% increase from January 1 to November 28, 2025, ranking 27th among all industries and lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 10.4 percentage points [17] - The appliance components sector outperformed with a 64.7% increase, while white goods and kitchen appliances saw declines of 1.1% and 0.7%, respectively [17] - Domestic retail sales of home appliances showed a cumulative year-on-year increase of 20.1% from January to October 2025, but growth slowed in September and October due to high base effects [35] 2026 Outlook - Domestic sales are expected to slow down due to high base effects from the previous year's subsidy policies, but leading companies are likely to outperform the industry due to their channel and brand advantages [53] - Export performance is anticipated to remain stable despite short-term concerns over tariffs, as many companies have adapted their overseas production strategies since 2018-2019 [56] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy changes that could impact both domestic and international sales in 2026 [56] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the white goods sector such as Midea Group and Haier Smart Home, which are expected to deliver stable returns and high dividends [7] - For the black appliance segment, companies like Hisense and TCL are highlighted as beneficiaries of global market share growth and product upgrades [7] - The report also suggests considering companies like Ninebot and Roborock, which are positioned for share gains and category expansion [7]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Home Appliance Industry**: The overseas market share of home appliance companies continues to rise, with significant demand recovery expected in the second half of 2026, particularly in the U.S. due to interest rate cuts and real estate demand, which will boost appliance demand and benefit related companies [1][4][6]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Resilience in Operations**: Focus on high dividend and high ROE white goods companies, which have robust assets and strong performance release capabilities. The demand in the U.S. is expected to increase due to interest rate cuts and real estate recovery [4][6]. - **Export Opportunities**: Many export-oriented companies faced challenges in 2025 due to overseas capacity ramp-up and order issues, but a recovery is anticipated in 2026. Chinese home appliance companies are gaining market share from Japanese and Korean firms in emerging markets, with significant growth potential in Europe and the U.S. [4][6]. - **Black Appliance Industry**: The competitive landscape is improving, with a reduction in panel cyclicality and near-monopoly in domestic panel capacity, easing cost pressures. Competitors like Xiaomi are slowing down, allowing Chinese black appliance companies to enhance global market share and profit margins [1][9]. - **Mini LED Products**: Despite an overall decline in the black appliance industry during the 2025 Double Eleven shopping festival, the penetration rate of Mini LED products increased to 47%, with an average price rise of 14%, indicating robust demand for high-end products [1][10]. Additional Important Insights - **North American Market**: Inventory levels in the North American market are becoming rationalized, and consumer demand is expected to gradually recover during the interest rate cut cycle, which will drive the recovery of the black appliance industry [11]. - **European Market Competition**: Price competition in the European market is expected to slow down in 2026, benefiting the profit margins of leading Chinese black appliance companies [12]. - **Clean Appliance Industry**: The competitive landscape is improving, with iRobot's potential bankruptcy benefiting companies like Shark, UFI, and others in the mid-to-low-end product segments. Innovations in products like floor washing robots present investment opportunities [3][14]. - **Investment Strategies for Export Chain Small Appliances**: Focus on companies with low valuations and high earnings elasticity, such as Xinbao, Ousheng Electric, and Dechang, which are expected to recover in 2026 as tariffs ease and U.S. interest rates decline [18][22]. Company-Specific Insights - **Xinbao**: The company is expected to benefit from tariff easing and has a low valuation of about 10 times next year's earnings. It is recommended to focus on Xinbao as order recovery is anticipated in the second quarter of 2026 [19]. - **Ousheng Electric**: The company is rapidly ramping up production in Vietnam and Malaysia, with a focus on smart care robots, which could become a significant growth driver. The expected valuation for next year is around 16 times earnings [21]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the home appliance industry's outlook, competitive dynamics, and specific company strategies and forecasts.

Core Viewpoint - The investment theme in the home appliance industry for 2026 is clear, focusing on seeking certainty amid uncertainty, identifying high growth in emerging categories, and seizing opportunities in a reshaped market landscape [1] Group 1: Market Performance - In the period from January to November 2025, the Shenwan home appliance industry index rose by 8%, with significant structural differentiation within the sector [2] - The home appliance components sector saw a remarkable increase of 62%, indicating a high premium on its growth logic [2] Group 2: White Goods - Domestic sales of white goods experienced a peak followed by a decline, influenced by national subsidies, with high base pressure expected in the second half of 2025 and the first half of 2026 [3] - Exports of white goods significantly slowed down from the second quarter of 2025 due to tariff uncertainties and high inventory levels after a rush to export [3] - With the expectation of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and the overseas capacity layout of leading companies like Midea and Haier, white goods exports are anticipated to improve [3] Group 3: Black Goods - The global black goods market is undergoing a reshaping trend characterized by "Chinese brands advancing while Korean brands retreating," with companies like Hisense and TCL enhancing their market share through Mini LED technology upgrades and global capacity layouts [4] - The focus of competition is shifting towards technology, cost, and operational efficiency as the panel cycle weakens, allowing Chinese brands to capture more market space [4] Group 4: Emerging Categories - The global market for robotic vacuum cleaners is experiencing simultaneous growth in volume and price, although high price points are suppressing rapid penetration [5] - The competition in the robotic vacuum cleaner segment is expected to shift towards cost-effective products in 2026, with attention needed on the impact of subsidy reductions [5] - The smart lawn mower segment is seeing rapid penetration driven by mainstream technology routes, with Chinese brands like Ecovacs and Roborock leading in online market share [5] - The home NAS market has significant potential, with estimated sales growth capacity of about five times [5] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks include major appliances such as Haier and Midea, small appliances like Roborock and Ecovacs, black goods like Hisense and TCL, and other appliances such as Shield Environment and Dechang [6]

Group 1 - The report highlights that since October 2025, price increases have gained attention, particularly in the fields of new energy, AI, and certain black, non-ferrous, and chemical products, with many areas experiencing transaction congestion close to historically high levels [4][10][12] - Historical cases indicate that price increases driven solely by sentiment or expectations typically reach a peak when congestion levels hit 90-100%, leading to a phase of adjustment, and subsequent rebounds are unlikely to surpass previous highs without additional supporting logic [14][16] - For price increases to break previous highs after an adjustment, they usually require new incremental logic support, such as a shift from expectation to reality in economic verification or the emergence of new catalysts [14][16] Group 2 - The report identifies two main areas where price increases are likely to continue: industrial metals, driven by global economic recovery expectations and supply constraints, and the AI chain, which remains a direction with confirmed economic prospects and potential incremental catalysts [51][52] - Strong sectors often reach a stage of congestion bottom when sentiment (transaction share) declines to 50-70% of previous highs, presenting a good buying opportunity [52] - The report suggests monitoring the TMT sector's transaction share to determine when it returns to the 20-25% range, indicating a potential buying point, while the Hang Seng Technology sector should be observed for a return to the 30-35% range [60][66] Group 3 - The report discusses the historical adjustment patterns of major technology sectors, noting that the average adjustment period is around 40 trading days, with an average absolute decline of approximately 15% [71][72] - The current adjustment in major technology sectors has seen declines of 15-20%, nearing historical averages, but the adjustment duration has been shorter than the historical average, suggesting a need for patience [71][72] - The report recommends continuing to allocate resources according to calendar effects, particularly in banking and white goods, while observing potential shifts in growth styles as economic data is released [71][72]

Group 1 - The demand for home appliances has significantly improved, with the white goods sector showing a rebound in valuation. In the first nine months of 2025, air conditioning sales reached 90.81 million units, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [2][3] - The "old-for-new" policy implemented in July 2024 has positively impacted sales, particularly in the kitchen appliance sector, where retail sales of range hoods and gas stoves saw year-on-year increases of 14.9% and 15.7%, respectively [2][3][24] - The overall valuation of the home appliance sector has declined, but it is currently at a near-bottom level, indicating high cost-effectiveness for investment [2][3][29] Group 2 - Three main investment themes are identified: 1. **Dividend**: Leading white and black goods companies exhibit low valuation, high dividends, and stable growth, making them attractive for investment [4] 2. **Technology**: Core component manufacturers are diversifying into emerging tech fields such as robotics and data center cooling, seeking cross-industry transformation [4] 3. **Overseas Expansion**: The penetration rate of new consumer categories, such as clean appliances, is increasing, indicating substantial growth potential [4][5] Group 3 - The white goods sector is expected to maintain stable growth due to the ongoing effects of the "old-for-new" policy, with head companies like Haier, Midea, and Gree being recommended for investment [4][5] - The kitchen appliance sector shows a clear division in performance, with traditional categories benefiting from government subsidies while new categories like integrated stoves face challenges [24][25] - The export market is experiencing a gradual decline in demand, with air conditioning exports dropping by 12.9% year-on-year in Q3 2025, influenced by previous tariff policies and high base effects [3][9][18]

证 券 研 究 报 告 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：韩星雨 邮箱：hanxingyu@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050001 证券分析师：陆偲聪 邮箱：lusicong@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360525050002 家电行业 2025Q3 基金重仓分析 重仓家电比例下降，家电上游及清洁电器获 推荐（维持） 增配 行业研究 家电 2025 年 11 月 18 日 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 80 | 0.01 | | 总市值(亿元) | 20,320.65 | 1.67 | | 流通市值(亿元) | 18,146.56 | 1.85 | 相对指数表现 | % | 1M | 6M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 5.4% | 8.0% | 9.9% | | 相对表现 | 3.4% | -9.4% | -4.7% | -11% -2% 8% 18% 24/11 25/01 25/04 25/06 25/09 25/11 2024-11-18~2025-11 ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent announcements from multiple listed companies regarding future dividend plans have garnered market attention, indicating a trend towards increased shareholder returns and confidence in corporate profitability [1][2][8]. Group 1: Dividend Plans - Yili Co. announced a plan for 2025-2027, committing to a cash dividend totaling at least 75% of the net profit attributable to shareholders each year, with a minimum cash dividend of 1.22 yuan per share for 2024 [1][8]. - Sanda Membrane disclosed a special dividend plan for 2025, proposing a cash dividend of 2.1 yuan per 10 shares, reflecting stable operational performance and a healthy balance sheet [2]. - China Communications Construction Company (CCCC) plans to distribute a minimum cash dividend of 0.11756 yuan per share for 2025, amounting to approximately 1.9142 billion yuan, which is about 20% of its net profit for the first half of 2025 [2][3]. Group 2: Implementation of Dividend Plans - Jidian Co. announced a cash dividend of 0.21 yuan per 10 shares for the first three quarters of 2025, with an expected total payout of approximately 76.17 million yuan, representing a dividend rate of 9.73% [4]. - Midea Group plans to distribute 5 yuan per 10 shares, totaling around 3.448 billion yuan, with the record date set for November 17 [5]. Group 3: Enhancing Shareholder Returns - Many companies are expressing intentions to gradually increase investor returns, with Ming Tai Aluminum committing to a minimum annual dividend payout ratio of 30% over the next three years [6][7]. - Yili Co. emphasized the importance of stable dividend expectations in enhancing company value and investor confidence, advocating for increased frequency of dividends and simplified mid-term dividend processes [8].