Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of iron ore is sufficient, but the structural shortage is expected to continue until the second quarter, and the increase in freight rates due to rising fuel prices will become apparent. Negotiations and the US-Iran war are currently event-driven factors with poor tradability. If these two factors persist, steel mill profits will be under pressure, and the pressure for negative feedback on production cuts will accumulate when downstream demand is weak [3][66]. - The price range for the second quarter is expected to be between 90 and 115 for the Platts 62 index and between 700 and 900 for the iron ore index [4][67]. - Industry risk management advice is to focus on short - selling opportunities [5][68] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review - In the first quarter of 2026, the iron ore price first declined and then rose, showing a V - shaped trend. From mid - November 2025 to mid - January 2026, the price increased by nearly 100 RMB due to macro - economic improvement, the end of steel mill production cuts, and a decline in coking coal prices. From mid - January to the end of February 2026, the price fell due to weakening fundamentals and market sentiment. From March to the present, the price has risen significantly because of tightened port spot liquidity, the US - Iran war, and weather disturbances [5][6][7] 2. Supply - In the first quarter of 2026, the supply of iron ore was initially loose and then tightened. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of shipments is around 8%. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of mainstream ore shipments is over 5%, and non - mainstream ore shipments have maintained a strong growth rate of 13%. The annual iron ore shipments in 2026 are expected to be relatively sufficient, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate is expected to stabilize around 4% [10] 3. Freight - Fuel oil costs account for about one - third and one - fourth of the freight rates for the C3 (Brazil - China) and C5 (Western Australia - China) routes respectively. Currently, the increase in fuel oil costs has not yet been reflected in freight rates due to a "weak demand + capacity mismatch" situation. In the short term, freight rates will remain volatile and weak, but there is an implicit asymmetric upward risk in the medium term. The recent decrease in the speed of Capesize ships has a certain supporting effect on freight rates, and if demand recovers, it may amplify the upward elasticity of C3 freight rates [31][32] 4. Demand 4.1 Iron Water Production - In the first quarter of 2026, the average daily iron water production was 2.2821 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year. Steel mill profits have declined significantly, and although iron water production is expected to increase seasonally, downstream demand is uncertain, and steel mill profits are expected to continue to shrink [50] 4.2 Steel Fundamentals - Currently, the apparent demand for the top five steel products is good, and inventory has started to decline. Hot - rolled coils have entered the de - stocking stage, with production slightly increasing and apparent demand recovering. Rebar production and sales have increased seasonally, but as raw material costs rise rapidly, steel mill profits have weakened, and the risk of negative feedback is accumulating [56] 4.3 Steel Exports - Overall, steel exports are under pressure but have support. In January - February 2026, China's steel exports totaled 15.59 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.18%. The decline is due to factors such as a high base last year and new export regulations. In the future, steel exports face challenges such as trade protectionism and geopolitical conflicts, but China's steel still has cost and industrial chain advantages, and the export structure is expected to optimize [59] 5. Inventory - In the first quarter of 2026, the inventory of 47 ports increased from 167 million tons to 178 million tons, showing an over - seasonal inventory build - up, but the price rose against the trend, mainly due to the structural shortage of medium - grade ore. As the scope of sanctions expands, the shortage problem is expected to remain unsolved for the time being [63] 6. Summary and Market Outlook - The structural shortage of iron ore is expected to continue until the second quarter, and the impact of rising fuel prices on freight rates will become apparent. Negotiations and the US - Iran war are event - driven factors. If they continue, steel mill profits will be under pressure, and the pressure for negative feedback on production cuts will accumulate [66] - The price range for the second quarter is expected to be between 90 and 115 for the Platts 62 index and between 700 and 900 for the iron ore index [4][67] - Industry risk management advice is to focus on short - selling opportunities [5][68]

Investment Rating - The report upgrades the investment rating to "Buy" [7] Core Views - The company's 2025 annual report shows revenue of HKD 6.87 billion, down 20.3% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders is HKD 0.453 billion, up 32.4% year-on-year, exceeding expectations due to recovery from prior losses [2] - The company has a stable supply capacity from quality overseas mines and is expected to benefit from the upward cycle of uranium prices, making it one of the most elastic uranium mining stocks [2][4] - The new three-year sales framework agreement is expected to enhance revenue stability and profit elasticity, with a significant increase in the fixed price component [4][5] Financial Performance - The company produced 2,699 tons of uranium in 2025, a decrease of 2% year-on-year, with sales costs rising to USD 29 per pound, an 11% increase due to higher taxes and material costs [3] - The sales framework for 2026-2028 includes a significant increase in the base price for uranium, which is expected to enhance the company's revenue base [4] - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2026-2028 is HKD 1.041 billion, HKD 1.337 billion, and HKD 1.570 billion respectively, with corresponding EPS of HKD 0.14, HKD 0.18, and HKD 0.21 [6][11] Market Outlook - The report emphasizes that the natural uranium market is entering a dual resonance phase driven by nuclear power revival and strategic stockpiling, which is expected to lead to higher uranium prices [5] - The company is positioned to benefit from the expected increase in uranium prices due to a shift from inventory depletion to replenishment [5]

Core Viewpoint - Luoyang Molybdenum's 2025 annual report indicates significant growth in revenue and net profit, driven by resource advantages and operational efficiency [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - In 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum achieved a revenue of 206.68 billion yuan and a net profit of 20.34 billion yuan, marking a 50.3% year-on-year increase [1]. - The company’s net profit has increased from 5.11 billion yuan in 2021 to over 20 billion yuan in 2025, achieving a new high for five consecutive years [1]. - The revenue from copper products reached 55.10 billion yuan, reflecting a 31.63% increase due to rising copper prices [3]. Group 2: Production and Sales - The company produced 741,100 tons of copper in 2025, setting a new record, with sales of 730,200 tons, a 5.9% increase year-on-year [3]. - In the fourth quarter of 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum reported a revenue of 61.20 billion yuan and a net profit of 6.06 billion yuan, with copper production nearing 200,000 tons, all achieving historical highs for a single quarter [3]. Group 3: Cost Reduction and Efficiency Improvement - Luoyang Molybdenum's operating costs in 2025 were 157.23 billion yuan, a decrease of 11.56% year-on-year [4]. - The company implemented innovative practices and process optimizations across its mining operations, significantly enhancing production efficiency and resource value [4]. - Specific improvements included enhanced recovery rates and operational efficiencies at various mines, contributing to record highs in production metrics [4]. Group 4: Strategic Expansion - The company is focusing on a global strategy that includes diversifying its resource portfolio, with gold resources identified as a key area for expansion [4]. - In June 2025, Luoyang Molybdenum completed the acquisition of the Odin mine in Ecuador, and in December 2025, it announced a $1.015 billion acquisition of four operating gold mines in Brazil, which was finalized in January 2026 [4]. Group 5: Future Outlook - In 2026, the company plans to deepen its platform-based operations and refined management, continuing to leverage its resource advantages to enhance production capacity [5]. - The focus will remain on the "copper and gold dual-pole" strategy, with ongoing efforts to identify quality targets in the mining sector [5].

Group 1 - The company, Luoyang Molybdenum (603993.SH), reported a total operating revenue of 206.68 billion yuan for the year 2025, representing a year-on-year decrease of 2.98% [1] - The total profit for the company reached 35.16 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 39.95% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 20.34 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year growth of 50.30% [1] Group 2 - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 2.86 yuan (including tax) for every 10 shares to all shareholders [1]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [5][5]. Core Views - The company aims to become a "green high-tech first-class international mining group," with expectations for significant value enhancement driven by rising copper and gold prices. The projected net profit growth rates for 2026-2028 are +61%, +25%, and +21% respectively [1][4]. - In 2025, the company achieved record-high operating performance with revenues of RMB 349.1 billion, a 15% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of RMB 51.8 billion, reflecting a 62% year-on-year growth [2][2]. - The company has a strong resource base, with significant increases in gold and copper resources, and has completed several acquisitions that contribute to production and profit [2][2]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported revenues of RMB 349.1 billion, a 15% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of RMB 51.8 billion, up 62% year-on-year, aligning with the company's profit forecast [2][2]. - The average prices for LME copper and SHFE gold rose by 43% and 9% respectively in 2025 [2][2]. - The company’s gold production reached 90 tons, a 23% increase, while copper production was 1.09 million tons, a 2% increase [2][2]. Future Outlook - The company plans to enhance its resource reserves and production capacity by 2028, aiming for gold and copper production to rank in the top three globally [3][3]. - The projected production for key minerals by 2028 includes 130-140 tons of gold, 150-160 million tons of copper, and 27-32 thousand tons of lithium carbonate equivalent [3][3]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The net profit forecasts for 2026-2028 are RMB 83.2 billion, RMB 104.1 billion, and RMB 126.1 billion respectively, with adjustments based on expected production increases [4][4]. - The target valuation for the company is set at a PE ratio of 13-16x for 2026, with target prices of RMB 44.93 and HKD 48.50 for A and H shares respectively [4][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Mining is maintained at "Buy" [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in oil and gas production, with a commercial breakthrough in lithium business, contributing to a revenue of 4.416 billion yuan in 2025 [2][8] - The revenue breakdown for 2025 shows oil and gas accounting for 59%, iron ore for 30%, lithium resources for 2%, and trade and others for 9% [2] - The company’s iron ore production remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while oil and gas production saw a substantial increase of 60.5% year-on-year, primarily due to the inclusion of the Tethys oil field and increased output from the Bajiao gas field [2][3] Financial Summary - The company’s total revenue for 2025 is projected at 4.416 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.62% [8] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 431 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 38.99% [8] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2025 is estimated at 0.22 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 51.53 [8][10] - The company’s operating cash flow is projected to be 1.637 billion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase of 18% [3][10] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from the growth in oil and gas production and its strategic positioning in the new energy sector, with projected net profits of 1.154 billion yuan in 2026 and 1.338 billion yuan in 2027 [9] - The company aims to stabilize iron ore production and enhance lithium production, targeting 11.8 thousand tons of lithium concentrate in 2026 [9] - The financial forecasts indicate a gradual increase in net profit, with estimates of 11.5 billion yuan for 2026 and 13.4 billion yuan for 2027, corresponding to P/E ratios of 19 and 17 respectively [9]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's share buyback program, priced at no more than 85.38 CNY per share and amounting to 200-400 million CNY, reflects management's confidence and indicates strong growth certainty over the next three years [2][5] - The production and sales targets for 2026 include 1 million tons of potassium chloride and 150,000 tons of industrial salt from its subsidiary, along with 11,000 tons of lithium carbonate from another subsidiary [2] - The company holds a 30.78% stake in a copper mining venture, expected to yield 300,000-310,000 tons of copper concentrate, translating to an estimated 92,300-95,400 tons of copper for the company [2] Financial Projections - Revenue projections for 2024 to 2028 are as follows: 3,251 million CNY (2024), 3,577 million CNY (2025), 4,829 million CNY (2026), 7,029 million CNY (2027), and 10,946 million CNY (2028), with growth rates of -37.8%, 10.0%, 35.0%, 45.6%, and 55.7% respectively [4] - Net profit estimates for the same period are: 2,580 million CNY (2024), 3,852 million CNY (2025), 7,479 million CNY (2026), 9,938 million CNY (2027), and 13,330 million CNY (2028), with growth rates of -24.6%, 49.3%, 94.1%, 32.9%, and 34.1% respectively [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.64 CNY (2024), 2.45 CNY (2025), 4.76 CNY (2026), 6.33 CNY (2027), and 8.49 CNY (2028) [4] Project Developments - The Mami Cuo salt lake project in Tibet is progressing well, with the first phase expected to produce 50,000 tons of lithium carbonate annually, set to commence operations in Q3 2026 [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Rebar**: The main contract price fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.22%. Demand improved while supply was weakly stable, and the fundamentals showed seasonal improvement. With cost support, the steel price returned to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, the strength of demand improvement was questionable, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, focusing on demand performance [5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: The main contract price oscillated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.27%. Demand recovered well, and the fundamentals improved under the situation of both supply and demand increasing. With cost support from strong raw materials, the price returned to the upper edge of the oscillation range. However, demand concerns remained, and the upward driving force was weakening under the high - inventory situation. The subsequent trend would continue to oscillate, focusing on demand performance [5]. - **Iron ore**: The main contract price oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of 0.49%. Supply disturbances reappeared, and the ore price remained at a high level. However, there was no substantial change in the fundamentals of iron ore, and the over - valued ore price continued to face pressure. It was expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, focusing on steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics - **Industrial enterprise profits**: From January to February 2026, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China reached 1024.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises achieved a total profit of 366.56 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.3%; joint - stock enterprises achieved a total profit of 803.29 billion yuan, an increase of 22.1%; private enterprises achieved a total profit of 284.45 billion yuan, an increase of 37.2% [7]. - **Construction machinery industry**: The development goal is to maintain stable growth of the industry's operating income, with the profit growth rate higher than the operating income growth rate. It also aims to increase R & D investment, optimize overseas business layout, increase the penetration rate of new energy construction machinery, expand the application of intelligent construction equipment, and achieve digital transformation while reducing energy consumption. The market order should be more standardized, avoiding price wars and "involution - style" competition [8]. - **Iron ore project**: The US - based Ivanhoe Atlantic Mining Company obtained key environmental approvals for its railway, port, and logistics infrastructure in Liberia, clearing key obstacles for the first - phase project of its Kon Kwei Ultra - High Grade Iron Ore Project [9]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Steel products**: The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3190 yuan, 3200 yuan, and 3325 yuan respectively, with the national average down 8 yuan. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3290 yuan, 3220 yuan, and 3322 yuan respectively, with the national average down 6 yuan. The prices of Tangshan steel billet and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap were 2980 yuan and 2180 yuan respectively, with the latter down 10 yuan. The coil - rebar price difference was 100 yuan, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 1010 yuan [10]. - **Iron ore**: The price of PB fines at Shandong ports was 782 yuan, down 6 yuan; the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 772 yuan, unchanged. The sea freight from Australia and Brazil was 10.71 yuan and 30.14 yuan respectively, with the former down 0.14 yuan and the latter up 0.11 yuan. The SGX swap price was 106.39 yuan, up 0.41 yuan, and the iron ore price index (61% FE, CFR) was 108.50 yuan, up 2.00 yuan [10]. 3.3 Futures Market | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Volume | Volume Change | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 3124 yuan | - 0.22 | 517,368 | 110,928 | 1,076,159 | - 91,050 | | Hot - rolled coil | 3299 yuan | - 0.27 | 225,634 | 11,585 | 919,538 | - 42,727 | | Iron ore | 812.0 yuan | - 0.49 | 183,962 | - 32,452 | 387,244 | - 20,782 | [12] 3.4 Relevant Charts - **Steel inventory**: The report presents charts of weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils, including data for multiple years [14][20]. - **Iron ore inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports in China, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, including inventory volume, seasonal changes, and month - on - month changes [22]. - **Steel mill production**: Charts display the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profit - making ratio of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate and profit - making situation of 94 independent electric furnace steel mills [30]. 3.5 Market Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply - demand pattern improved, inventory continued to decline, and production was weakly stable. Weekly production decreased by 5.46 tons, and demand showed seasonal improvement, with weekly apparent demand increasing by 17.28 tons. However, the strength of demand improvement was questionable, and the subsequent trend should be viewed with caution, focusing on demand performance [39]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Both supply and demand continued to rise. Weekly production increased by 5.40 tons, but inventory remained high. Demand was resilient, with weekly apparent demand increasing by 3.12 tons, but high - frequency trading volume declined. The subsequent trend would continue to oscillate, focusing on demand performance [39]. - **Iron ore**: The supply - demand pattern improved, and ore demand showed seasonal improvement. However, the improvement of industrial contradictions in the steel market was limited, and the subsequent demand growth space needed to be tracked. Supply pressure still existed, and the ore price was expected to continue to oscillate at a high level, focusing on steel price performance and Australian ore shipments [40].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hainan Mining is "Accumulate" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company achieved significant growth in oil and gas production, with a historical high output, and successfully commercialized its lithium business, marking a breakthrough from 0 to 1 [2][8] - In 2025, the company's revenue reached 4.416 billion yuan, with contributions from oil and gas, iron ore, lithium resources, and trade accounting for 59%, 30%, 2%, and 9% of total revenue, respectively [2] - The company’s iron ore production remained stable, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3%, while oil and gas production saw a substantial year-on-year increase of 60.5% [2][3] - The lithium business, particularly the Mali Buguni lithium mine, produced 45,000 tons of lithium concentrate, and the Hainan Xingzhihai lithium hydroxide project achieved its first sales of 1,200 tons, indicating successful commercialization [2] Financial Summary - The company’s gross profit margins for oil and gas and iron ore in 2025 are projected to be 20% and 40%, respectively, showing a decline due to lower prices and high-cost asset consolidation [3] - Despite a year-on-year decline in net profit to 431 million yuan in 2025, iron ore and oil and gas businesses contributed over 60% to the net profit [3] - The company’s operating cash flow for 2025 is expected to be 1.637 billion yuan, reflecting an 18% year-on-year increase, indicating a solid cash flow position [3][10] - The projected net profit for 2026 is adjusted to 1.15 billion yuan, with a price-to-earnings ratio of 19 times, and for 2027, it is projected at 1.34 billion yuan with a P/E ratio of 17 times [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Currently, the steel fundamentals are in a "weak balance" state. Although demand has marginal improvement and inventory is gradually being reduced, there is no trend - driving upward force yet. One should focus on the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. - In the short term, iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level. The bottom support of iron ore has been strengthened, but the negotiation issue causes repeated emotional disturbances to the price [5]. - In the short term, one should be aware of the phased callback pressure on prices under the macro - recession expectation and the high - volatility attribute due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. The black sector may be supported to some extent by the withdrawal of funds that previously long - allocated non - ferrous metals and short - allocated black metals [10][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to fluctuate. The cost can provide strong support in the short term, but demand improvement is weak [19]. - Polysilicon prices are expected to fluctuate and seek a bottom. The current fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand [21]. - Float glass prices are expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern. One should pay attention to the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in major production areas [24]. - Soda ash prices are expected to continue the low - level wide - range oscillation trend. The current supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the inventory reduction rhythm has not effectively affected the price [26]. Summary by Directory Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3128 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4 yuan/ton (-0.12%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 81,588 tons, a net increase of 5,791 tons. The position volume of the main contract was 1.1672 million lots, a decrease of 40,108 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3305 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton (-0.24%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 533,679 tons, a net increase of 8,827 tons. The position volume of the main contract was 962,300 lots, a decrease of 40,839 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3300 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The steel market is in a "weak balance" state. The real - estate investment repair momentum is still insufficient, and the support for steel demand from the real - estate sector is limited in the short term. The supply and demand of steel have both increased, and the inventory is being reduced at an accelerated pace, but there is no trend - driving upward force yet. One should focus on the release rhythm of peak - season demand and the impact of raw material price fluctuations on the cost side [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2605) closed at 817.00 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.30% (+10.50). The position volume changed by - 6288 lots to 408,000 lots. The weighted position volume of iron ore was 890,400 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 792 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 24.37 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 2.90% [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - In terms of supply, the overseas ore shipments in the latest period continued the upward trend. The shipments from Australia increased to a relatively high level, while those from Brazil decreased slightly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries remained basically stable, and the near - end arrivals increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average pig - iron output according to the Steel Union's data increased by 2.94 tons month - on - month to 231.09 tons. The blast furnaces that were shut down for maintenance due to production restrictions have basically resumed normal production, and it is expected that the pig - iron output will continue to rise. The profitability of steel mills has shown a slight upward trend. In terms of inventory, the port inventory has continued to decline from a high level, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills has decreased from a low level. Overall, the iron ore price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On March 26, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM605) closed down 0.89% at 6434 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6300 yuan/ton, equivalent to 6490 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 56 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF605) closed down 1.74% at 5982 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 6050 yuan/ton, with a premium of 68 yuan/ton over the futures price [7][9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has shifted from early inflation and supply - side disturbance logic to pricing and trading for stagflation and recession. Although the long - term trend of commodities is still upward, in the short term, one should be aware of the phased callback pressure on prices under the macro - recession expectation and the high - volatility attribute due to the uncertainty of the Middle - East situation. The black sector may be supported to some extent. The supply - demand pattern of manganese silicon is not ideal, but these factors are mostly priced in. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon are good. The future market trends of the two are mainly affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - push and supply - contraction factors [10][11]. Coking Coal and Coke Market Information - On March 26, the main contract of coking coal (JM2605) closed down 0.89% at 1230.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1565.9 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1375.5 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 147.5 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1360 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1345.0 yuan on the futures market, with a premium of 115.0 yuan/ton over the futures price; the price of Mongolian 5 clean coal in Wubulang Jinquan Industrial Park was 1240 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1215 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 15 yuan/ton to the futures price. The main contract of coke (J2605) closed down 0.84% at 1761.0 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1500 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1758 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 14 yuan/ton to the futures price; the price of quasi - first - grade dry - quenched coke in Lvliang was 1495 yuan/ton, equivalent to 1710.5 yuan on the futures market, with a discount of 50.5 yuan/ton to the futures price [13]. Strategy Viewpoint - The market has shifted to stagflation and recession trading, and the price of coking coal may be supported by the withdrawal of funds from the non - ferrous and black sectors. The coking coal's energy attribute may be further stimulated, but the high volatility of oil and gas will also lead to high volatility in coking coal prices. In the short term, the fundamentals for a significant price rebound are insufficient, and one is advised to conduct short - term long - side operations or wait and see. In the long term, coking coal prices are still optimistic, especially from June to October [15][16]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Market Information - Industrial silicon: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) was 8735 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.40% (-35). The weighted contract position volume increased by 472 lots to 370,523 lots. In the spot market, the price of non - oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9150 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract was 415 yuan/ton; the price of 421 industrial silicon was 9600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day, and the basis of the main contract after conversion was 65 yuan/ton [18]. - Polysilicon: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) was 35,540 yuan/ton, with a change of - 3.29% (-1210). The weighted contract position volume increased by 764 lots to 51,484 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon according to the SMM standard was 41.5 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day; the average price of N - type dense material was 39 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 39.75 yuan/kg, a decrease of 0.75 yuan/kg from the previous day. The basis of the main contract was 4210 yuan/ton [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - Industrial silicon: The price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is slightly increasing, but the demand improvement is weak. The high energy prices provide cost support [19]. - Polysilicon: The fundamentals are weak, with high inventory and weak downstream demand. The price is expected to fluctuate and seek a bottom [21]. Glass and Soda Ash Market Information - Glass: The main contract of glass closed at 1036 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 1.99% (-21). The price of large - size glass in North China was 1060 yuan, with no change from the previous day; the price in Central China was 1080 yuan, with no change from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 73.622 million boxes, a decrease of 814,000 boxes (-1.09%). In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders increased their long positions by 65,234 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 61,070 lots [23]. - Soda ash: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1225 yuan/ton on Thursday afternoon, a decrease of 1.53% (-19). The price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1205 yuan, a decrease of 19 yuan from the previous day. On March 26, the weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.8519 million tons, a decrease of 1900 tons (-1.09%), among which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 905,300 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 946,600 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons. In terms of positions, the top 20 long - position holders reduced their long positions by 10,828 lots, and the top 20 short - position holders increased their short positions by 3454 lots [25]. Strategy Viewpoint - Glass: The supply contraction provides some support to the market sentiment, but the high inventory and weak demand restrict the price increase. The float glass market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern, and one should focus on the actual demand release rhythm during the "Golden March and Silver April" and inventory changes in major production areas [24]. - Soda ash: The supply is relatively stable, and the downstream demand is weak. The supply - demand pattern remains loose, and the price is expected to continue the low - level wide - range oscillation trend [26].