Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, the polyester industry chain declined significantly due to the sharp drop in crude oil prices caused by the ceasefire. The industry will return to fundamental trading, and future market trends are affected by multiple factors including geopolitics, supply and demand fundamentals, and device operations [1] - In the short term, the oil market pressure is limited as it enters a stage of both increasing supply and demand. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, the market may turn bearish as demand growth elasticity is expected to be significantly less than supply [2] - The gasoline crack spread has limited upside, and the aromatics market is affected by factors such as export volume and short - process device profitability [2] - Each product in the polyester industry chain has different situations in terms of price, profit, inventory, and production plans, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production reduction plans and inventory changes [3][4] Summary by Directory 1. Price and Basis - Present the TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread trends, PTA East China spot basis, and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] 2. Upstream Profits and Spreads - Include PX processing fees (PXN), PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [19][22] 3. International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Cover the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR spread, and PTA export profits [27][29] 4. Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Show the operating rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as the operating rates of PX in China and Asia [30][33][35] 5. Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Provide information on PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [38][41][42] 6. Downstream Polyester Load - Include filament sales volume, short - fiber sales volume, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing machine start - up rates, Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rates, and filament profits [49][51][62] 7. PF Detailed Data - Contain polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, difference between original and recycled fibers, pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [75][82][86] 8. PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Provide polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory bottle - chip inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fees, bottle - chip export processing fees, bottle - chip export profits, bottle - chip inter - month spreads [90][92][101]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a challenging year for the polyester industry in 2024, with significant production capacity pressures expected, particularly in PTA [2][3]. Core Insights - The polyester industry is transitioning from a phase of new capacity additions to a focus on balancing existing capacity, leading to increased industry adjustments [2][8]. - Price volatility has decreased across various products, but significant differentiation has emerged between upstream and downstream segments [2][8]. - The supply-demand dynamics for PX and PTA are expected to remain under pressure, while ethylene glycol is anticipated to see marginal improvements in its supply-demand balance [5][22]. Summary by Sections Polyester Industry Overview - 2024 is projected to be a challenging year, with a shift from new capacity investments to the rebalancing of existing capacities [2][8]. - The overall production capacity for polyester is expected to increase by approximately 689 million tons, with a total capacity reaching 8,508 million tons [38]. PX (Paraxylene) - PX production is expected to see limited new capacity additions in 2024, with a total production of 3,770 million tons, reflecting an 11.9% growth [14][21]. - The domestic PX supply is expected to grow at a slower pace, while demand remains strong, leading to a potential improvement in the supply-demand balance [21][22]. PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - PTA is facing significant production capacity pressures, with an expected total capacity of 9,472 million tons by the end of 2025, reflecting a 10% growth rate [22][32]. - The demand for PTA is projected to grow by 11.6% in 2024, with total consumption reaching approximately 6,634 million tons [23][24]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol is expected to experience a stable supply-demand balance in 2024, with production capacity anticipated to increase by 160 million tons by the end of 2025 [5][35]. - The overall price for ethylene glycol is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation range, with a slight upward adjustment in the price center [5][35]. Market Dynamics - The polyester market is characterized by a significant increase in bottle chip production, while short fibers and long fibers are expected to see stable growth [38][39]. - The overall industry is experiencing a rise in inventory levels, with a projected total inventory accumulation of approximately 800,000 tons for PTA [45].