成份股方面，铜业龙头白银有色（维权）逆市涨停，锂业龙头盛新锂能涨超2%，锂业龙头中孚实业亦 涨逾2%。值得关注的是，涨幅前十大成份股中，黄金龙头占据5席，其中，西部黄金涨超3%，中金黄 金涨逾2%，山东黄金、四川黄金、山金国际等个股跟涨。另一方面，博威合金跌超7%，楚江新材、赣 锋锂业跌逾6%，跌幅居前，拖累指数表现。 有色龙头ETF（159876）标的指数涨幅前十大成份股 | 序号 | 名称 | 派跌幅。 | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 日银有色 | 9.93% | | 有色金属 | 工业会属 | 원리 | 484 Z | 42.49 Z | | 2 | 西部黄金 | 3.65% | VA V | 有色会属 | 農金属 | 商会 | 303亿 | 17.39亿 | | 3 | 監新世能 | 2.46% | 1 | 有色金属 | 能源会属 | 慢 | 179亿 | 16.00亿 | | 4 | 中学实业 | | 2.36% M ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has shown a "slow bull" trend in the first three quarters of this year, with significant contributions from the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sector, particularly in AI, robotics, and semiconductors. Active equity fund managers who actively position in new directions have performed well, but the volatility in popular sectors and events like the "tariff shock" in early April have impacted their ability to manage drawdowns, affecting investor experiences [4]. Summary by Category Overall Performance of Active Equity Fund Managers - In the first three quarters of this year, there are 1,698 active equity fund managers with an average return of 34.08% and a median return of 30.45%. The average drawdown is -13.93%, with a median of -13.05% [4][5]. - Fund managers managing over 100 billion yuan have the highest median returns at 36.79%, but also face larger drawdowns [5]. Performance by Management Scale - **Over 100 Billion Yuan**: 80 managers, median return 36.79%, median drawdown -14.13%. Top performers include Zhang Wei from Huatai-PineBridge and Ge Lan from China Europe Fund, both heavily invested in the pharmaceutical sector [6][7]. - **50-100 Billion Yuan**: 130 managers, median return 35.28%, median drawdown -13.28%. Top performers include Zheng Ning from Zhongyin Fund, with a return of 95.01% [9][10]. - **20-50 Billion Yuan**: 275 managers, median return 32.82%, median drawdown -13.08%. Top performers include Dan Lin from Yongying Fund, with a return of 97.40% [13][14]. - **Below 20 Billion Yuan**: 1,213 managers, median return 29.46%, median drawdown -12.95%. Top performers include Wang Chao from Fortune Fund, with a return of 93.31% [16]. Notable Fund Managers - **Zhang Wei**: Achieved a return of 69.62% with a maximum drawdown of -10.01%, managing six funds [7][8]. - **Zheng Ning**: Focused on innovative drugs, achieving a return of 95.01% with a maximum drawdown of -13.06% [10][12]. - **Dan Lin**: Achieved a return of 97.40% with a maximum drawdown of -12.88% [14]. - **Zhao Longlong**: Managed to achieve a return of 62.08% with the smallest drawdown of -9.51% among his peers [15]. Investment Focus - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on sectors such as innovative pharmaceuticals and high-end medical devices, with a notable emphasis on the potential of Chinese innovative drugs in international markets [8][10].

Group 1 - The article emphasizes that 2025 is a pivotal year, marking a shift in global financial flows and market dynamics, with new coordinates emerging in investment strategies [3] - There is a notable increase in demand for gold, with prices rising by 43% from early 2025 to September, indicating a shift in investor sentiment towards alternative assets [6][15] - The article highlights a significant trend of capital moving away from the US dollar, with various global markets experiencing substantial gains, such as the German stock market rising by 28% and the Italian market by 40% [6][7] Group 2 - The concept of "island chain configuration" is introduced, suggesting that global financial flows are becoming decentralized, with investors seeking alternatives to the US dollar [14][15] - The article discusses the geopolitical implications of investment decisions, emphasizing the need for a political risk filter in asset evaluation [15][22] - The narrative-driven nature of capital markets is highlighted, where market movements are increasingly influenced by stories and perceptions rather than just fundamentals [18][20] Group 3 - The article notes a significant transformation in China's pharmaceutical industry, with a record-breaking $60.5 billion deal for licensing a Chinese cancer drug, showcasing China's growing innovation capabilities [32] - It points out that China's share of global innovative drug approvals has increased significantly, indicating a shift in the global pharmaceutical landscape [32][33] - The article discusses the emergence of "DeepSeek moments" in various industries, where previously underestimated sectors suddenly gain prominence and reshape market expectations [33][35] Group 4 - The article illustrates the evolution of China's manufacturing capabilities through the lens of container contents over the years, showing a shift from low-value goods to high-tech products [40][41] - It emphasizes the importance of precision manufacturing in maintaining competitive advantages in global supply chains, with companies like Luxshare Precision exemplifying this trend [46][58] - The article discusses the necessity for Chinese companies to transition from merely exporting products to establishing production capabilities abroad, thereby enhancing their global positioning [71][75]

2025年的黄金市场有多疯狂？9个月从2730美元/盎司飙到4200美元，首饰金每克冲到1235元，没买的急 得跳脚，买了的整夜难眠，4200美元的背后究竟藏着怎样的变化？ 这40年来，全球央行的钱袋子到底经历了啥变化？ 1985年那会，美国已经是全球最牛的经济体了，当时它的债务才9000亿美元。搁那个年代，谁要是能借 钱给美国，当它的债权人，那可是脸上有光的事。 大家都觉得，美国是世界第一，把钱借给它，哪是借钱啊，分明是稳赚不赔的买卖，说出去都倍儿有面 子。 事实也确实如此，上世纪80年代，全球经济和贸易基本就是围着美国和欧洲转，相当于这俩大佬唱"二 人转"。 它们需要啥，全世界就生产啥；它们造出来啥，全世界就觉得啥高级、啥好看，在这种大背景下，美元 自然就成了硬通货，不管你在哪个国家做生意，人家都认美元。 做生意赚了一堆美元，总不能攥在手里吧？钱放着不流通、不生钱，其实也是一种亏，那时候的美国， 经济、军事、文化都是顶尖水平，所以它发行的国债，也就是美国给世界打的"欠条"，被当成了最靠谱 的资产。 各国手里花不完的美元，都用来买美债，而美国也靠着这个，让花出去的钱又流回了自己口袋。 进入21世纪后，中国出 ...

Well, this week, gold hits a fresh all-time high as investors flock to the precious metal. For more on what to make of this shining trade, we want to welcome here MK Investments founder, president, and chief investment officer, Axel Murk. Axel, as someone who, listen, manages over three billion in precious metals and precious metals mining.I want to start with you on what you just make of this record run in gold axle. What in your opinion is driving this. Yeah, great to be with you and it's indeed been trul ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is experiencing significant price increases, with domestic gold prices surpassing 1245 RMB per gram, marking a nearly 7.3% rise in just six days [3] - International gold prices have also reached new highs, with New York futures and London spot prices exceeding 4000 USD per ounce during the National Day holiday [3] - The surge in gold prices is primarily driven by global concerns over the credibility of the US dollar, as evidenced by a 3% drop in the dollar index to 99.01 [5] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Monetary Policy - Weak economic data in the US, including a March CPI of 2.4% and a mere 22,000 increase in non-farm employment in August, has led to expectations of four interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025 [5] - The US national debt is approaching 38 trillion USD, with daily debt increases of 6 billion USD, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [9] - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign debt rating from Aaa to Aa1 due to concerns over fiscal sustainability [9] Group 3: Shift Towards De-dollarization - The trend of de-dollarization is gaining momentum, with countries like Saudi Arabia and China moving towards accepting RMB for oil transactions [11][13] - The share of RMB in international payments is increasing, reflecting a decline in the dollar's dominance in bilateral trade [13] - The RMB has become the largest settlement currency for China's foreign trade, with cross-border RMB payments reaching 35 trillion RMB in the first half of 2025, a 14% year-on-year increase [15][17] Group 4: Impact on Investment Behavior - The rising gold prices have led to increased costs in the wedding market, with gold and silver jewelry CPI rising by 18.6% year-on-year in March 2025 [22] - Investors are shifting from the stock market to gold, as evidenced by a 28% fluctuation in the Shanghai Composite Index in the first half of 2025 [22] - The increasing attractiveness of RMB assets provides more diverse investment options for ordinary individuals, benefiting from the inflow of foreign capital [25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in gold prices, highlighting a significant increase in market value and the implications for investors amid rising global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [1][4]. Market Performance - On October 17, the London spot gold price experienced high volatility, peaking at $4,380 per ounce before a rapid decline. The total market capitalization of gold has surpassed $30 trillion [1][4]. - In the A-share market, several gold stocks, including Western Gold and Xincheng Technology, saw gains, with some stocks rising over 3% [4]. Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The recent surge in gold prices, with a nearly 13% increase since surpassing $4,000 per ounce, is attributed to several factors: 1. Expectations of liquidity easing, with the Federal Reserve likely to implement 1-2 more rate cuts by the end of the year [4]. 2. Concerns over the depreciation of the US dollar due to rising national debt and potential worsening of the deficit [4]. 3. Increased market uncertainty stemming from issues such as the US government shutdown and US-China trade conflicts [4]. Risk Management Measures - Exchanges have issued risk warnings due to the heightened volatility in gold and silver prices. The Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Shanghai Futures Exchange have advised investors to manage risks and control positions [5]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced adjustments to margin requirements and price fluctuation limits for gold and silver futures, effective from October 21, 2025, to mitigate risks associated with high volatility [5]. Long-term Price Outlook - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will reach $4,500 per ounce by the second half of 2026, while Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for December 2026 from $4,300 to $4,900 per ounce [6]. - Factors supporting this bullish outlook include continued central bank purchases and inflows into gold ETFs, which are expected to contribute significantly to price increases [6]. Potential Risks - Despite the positive outlook, there are potential risks, including the near-historic high levels of net long positions reported by the CFTC. A stagnation in price momentum could trigger large-scale sell-offs, particularly if other asset classes perform well [7].

最近好多朋友私下问我："帮主，你做了20年财经记者，又专做中长线，现在金价都飙到4200美元/盎司了，黄金股跟着翻了倍，这时候入手是不是成了接盘 侠？" 这问题问得实在，今天就用聊天的方式，把黄金股"贵不贵"这事儿掰扯清楚。 先搞明白一个前提：这轮黄金热，不是散户瞎热闹，是"国家队"带头下场。2022年美国冻了俄罗斯几千亿外汇储备，全球央行一下子醒了——美债不靠谱， 黄金才是"硬通货"。这三年，各国央行每年净买黄金超千吨，六成都是用来替代美债的，现在黄金都超过欧元，成了全球第二大储备资产。咱们中国央行更 实在，连续11个月增持，到9月底黄金储备都2303吨了。 我帮主郑重做了20年财经记者，玩中长线就认一个理：投资要看底层逻辑。黄金现在的逻辑，就是全球货币信用的"定心丸"，只要这个逻辑不破，就不用被 短期的涨跌吓住。 金价一涨，A股黄金股直接成了风口上的"香饽饽"。今年以来黄金股指数翻了一倍，紫金矿业、山东黄金这些龙头涨了近一倍，西部黄金、招金黄金那些中 小票，涨幅直接超两倍。涨得有没有底气？看业绩就知道。紫金旗下的紫金黄金国际，这三年收入从129亿涨到212亿，净利润从13亿蹦到34亿，今年上半年 更猛，净 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - Global financial markets experienced significant volatility this week due to geopolitical tensions and policy expectations, with a shift between risk and safe-haven assets [1][3] - The price of gold reached a historical high of $4,379 before retreating over 2% to around $4,240, influenced by a more moderate stance from Trump on tariffs against China [1] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) rebounded to 98.40, ending a four-day decline, supported by comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the 2% inflation target [2] Group 2: Commodity Performance - Oil prices continued to face pressure, with WTI crude reaching a five-month low of $56.5 per barrel, driven by an unexpected increase in U.S. crude inventories and concerns over oversupply [2] - Despite short-term adjustments, central banks' ongoing accumulation of gold and the trend of de-dollarization provide medium to long-term support for gold prices [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - Upcoming focus will be on U.S. CPI and PCE inflation data, which will be critical in determining the direction of the dollar and the stability of gold prices around the $4,200 support level [3] - The interplay between geopolitical events, such as the U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions, continues to add uncertainty to market conditions [3]

黄金年内超60%的涨幅折射出全球货币信任体系的重构，但COMEX金价单日近200美元的剧烈震荡 (COMEX黄金价格于10月17日一度触及4392美元/盎司的历史峰值，并于10月18日凌晨跌至4196美元/盎 司，并收于4267.9美元/盎司)同时警示着交易风险。 当单一资产波动率显著放大，投资者必须面对一个关键难题：除了黄金，还能买什么？多元配置成为抵 御不确定性的关键，但这要求投资者在货币信用重构与技术革命的交汇处，于央行增储黄金的战略动向 与居民存款月度波动的短期信号之间，做出审慎的权衡与选择。 货币锚重构下的战略定位与战术风险 今年黄金的强势行情驱动力已超越了传统避险逻辑。中国人民大学国际货币研究所的文章分析指出，在 当前全球贸易、资本和货币体系的重构过程中，大宗商品多以美元定价的体系受到挑战，黄金作为非主 权信用资产，其价格支撑因素变得更加坚实。许多国家对美元信任度的下降，转化为央行外汇储备资产 的持续多元化，黄金成为重要的配置方向。 尤为重要的是，市场共识出现了分歧。一方将黄金视为全球货币信用重构下的战略性配置良机；另一方 则严厉警示黄金交易拥挤所蕴含的剧烈回调风险。银杏资本管理有限公司董事长、北 ...