Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The market sentiment cooled slightly yesterday, with the commodity market weakening significantly and the stock index showing a volatile trend. The trading volume also contracted. After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] - The prices of various commodities are affected by different factors, such as supply and demand, policy changes, and macro sentiment. The report provides trend judgments and trading suggestions for each commodity, including metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - Stock Index: After a rapid rise, the stock index has entered a stage of shock consolidation. There are no obvious macro-level negatives at present, and the short-term outlook for the stock index remains bullish. Attention should be paid to capital flows and market sentiment changes. [1] - Treasury Bonds: The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks. Attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision. [1] Non-Ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price has fallen from its recent high, but there are still disruptions in the mining end. The downside space for the copper price is expected to be limited. [1] - Aluminum: There has been an accumulation of domestic electrolytic aluminum stocks recently, and the industrial driving force is limited. The macro anti-involution sentiment has ebbed, and the aluminum price has fallen from its high. [1] - Alumina: The supply side of alumina still has a large release space, and the industrial side exerts downward pressure on the price. However, the current price is basically near the cost line, and the price is expected to fluctuate. [1] - Zinc: The fundamentals of zinc have improved, and the cost center has shifted upward. The recent macro sentiment has been good, and the zinc price has risen. However, considering the still existing pressure on the fundamentals, caution is advised regarding the upside space. [1] - Nickel: The market's concerns about nickel supply have significantly cooled, and the LME nickel inventory has increased significantly recently. The nickel price has corrected from its high. Since Indonesia has not disclosed the specific amount and said that it is still in the process of accounting, there is still uncertainty about the implementation of the subsequent policy. The short-term volatility risk of the nickel price has increased. Attention should be paid to the implementation of Indonesia's policy, changes in macro sentiment, and changes in futures positions, and risk control should be done well. [1] Precious Metals and New Energy - Gold and Silver: The annual weight adjustment of the BCOM index has officially started, and the exchange has introduced multiple risk control measures for silver to suppress speculative enthusiasm. The prices of precious metals have fallen across the board, with a significant decline in silver. In the short term, gold and silver are expected to continue to be weak and volatile. In the medium and long term, attention can be paid to the opportunity to buy on dips after this round of risk release. [1] - Platinum and Palladium: Platinum and palladium have followed the weakening of precious metals. In the short term, they are expected to be in a wide-range volatile pattern. In the medium and long term, with the still existing supply-demand gap for platinum and the tendency of palladium to have a loose supply, platinum can still be bought on dips or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be adopted. [1] Industrial Products - Industrial Silicon: There is an increase in production in the northwest and a decrease in production in the southwest. The production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon in December have decreased. [1] - Polysilicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles. The demand for energy storage is strong. The supply side has increased production resumption. There is a short-term rapid increase. [1] - Rebar and Hot Rolled Coil: In the short term, sentiment and capital have a greater influence than industrial contradictions. One can try to follow long positions with a stop-loss; for futures-spot trading, participate in positive spread positions. [1] - Iron Ore: There is sector rotation, but the upside pressure on iron ore is obvious. It is not recommended to chase long positions at this level. [1] - Non-Ferrous Metals: There is a combination of weak reality and strong expectations. The current supply and demand situation remains weak, but in terms of expectations, energy consumption double control and anti-involution may have an impact on supply. [1] - Soda Ash: Soda ash follows the trend of glass. In the medium term, the supply and demand situation will be more relaxed, and the price will be under pressure. [1] - Coking Coal and Coke: If the "capacity reduction" expectation continues to ferment and there is pre-holiday restocking of spot goods, coking coal may still have room to rise. However, since the current market's "capacity reduction" expectation mainly comes from online rumors, it is difficult to judge the actual upside space. After a significant increase, the volatility will intensify, and caution should be exercised. The logic for coke is the same as that for coking coal. [1] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: The MPOB December data is expected to be bearish for palm oil, but palm oil will reverse under the themes of seasonal production reduction, the B50 policy, and US biodiesel in the future. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Soybean Oil: The fundamentals of soybean oil are relatively strong. It is recommended to allocate more in the oil sector and consider a long Y, short P spread. Wait for the January USDA report. [1] - Rapeseed Oil: The trade relationship between China and Canada may improve, and Australian rapeseed will be imported smoothly. After the rapeseed trade flow is opened up, the trading logic of rapeseed oil will gradually shift from the domestic tight supply situation to the global rapeseed production increase expectation. There is still room for the price to fall. Short-term rebounds due to macro sentiment should be watched out for. [1] - Cotton: There is a strong expectation of a good harvest for domestic new crops, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint cotton. The downstream operating rate remains low, but the inventory of yarn mills is not high, and there is a rigid demand for restocking. Considering the growth of spinning capacity, the demand for cotton in the new crop market year is relatively resilient. Currently, the cotton market is in a situation of "having support but no driving force." Future attention should be paid to the tone of the No. 1 Central Document in the first quarter of next year regarding the direct subsidy price and cotton planting area, the intention of cotton planting area next year, the weather during the planting period, and the demand during the "Golden Three and Silver Four" peak season. [1] - Sugar: Currently, there is a global surplus of sugar, and the supply of domestic new crops has increased. The short-selling consensus is relatively strong. If the futures price continues to fall, there will be strong cost support below. However, there is a lack of continuous driving force in the short-term fundamentals. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital side. [1] - Corn: The fundamentals of corn have not changed significantly. The spot price remains firm, and the progress of grain sales at the grassroots level is relatively fast. Most traders have not yet strategically built inventories, and feed enterprises maintain a safe inventory. There is a certain restocking demand before the holiday. The short-term outlook for CO3 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish. Attention should be paid to the dynamics of policy grain auctions. [1] - Soybean Meal: The domestic market may restart the auction of imported soybeans; the relationship between China and Canada is expected to ease, and China is expected to suspend the tax on Canadian rapeseed meal; the macro sentiment has cooled, and the domestic market has returned to the fundamentals and shown a significant decline. Recently, it has been greatly affected by policy news. The soybean meal futures price is expected to be mainly oscillating in the short term. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the January USDA supply and demand report and the trend of the Brazilian premium. [1] - Pulp: Pulp has fallen today due to the decline in the commodity macro market. The overall price has not broken through the oscillating range. The short-term commodity sentiment fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to observe cautiously. [1] - Logs: The spot price of logs has shown a certain sign of bottoming out and rebounding recently. The further downside space for the futures price is expected to be limited. However, the January overseas quotation has still slightly declined, and the log futures and spot markets lack upward driving factors. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 760 - 790 yuan/m³. [1] - Hogs: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized. Supported by demand and with the出栏体重 not yet fully cleared, the production capacity still needs to be further released. [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026. There is uncertainty about the Russia-Ukraine peace agreement. The United States has imposed sanctions on Venezuela's crude oil exports. [1] - Fuel Oil: In the short term, the supply-demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the trend of crude oil. The probability of the 14th Five-Year Plan's rush demand being falsified is high, and the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is not short. The profit of asphalt is relatively high. [1] - BR Rubber: The futures position has declined, and the number of new warehouse receipts has increased. The increase in BR has slowed down temporarily. The spot price has led the rise to repair the basis, and BR continues to focus on the upward momentum above the 12,000 yuan line. The listed prices of BD/BR have been continuously raised, and the processing profit of butadiene rubber has narrowed. The overseas cracking device capacity has been cleared, which is beneficial to the long-term export expectation of domestic butadiene. The tax on naphtha also has a positive impact on the butadiene price. Fundamentally, butadiene rubber maintains high production and high inventory operation, and the trading center is generally average. Styrene-butadiene rubber is relatively better than butadiene rubber. [1] - PX and PTA: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. The fundamentals of PX do have support, and the market is expected to continue to tighten in 2026, driven by the new PTA production capacity in India and the organic growth of demand. Domestic PTA maintains high production. The gasoline spread is still at a high level, which supports aromatics. [1] - Ethylene Glycol: There is news that two sets of MEG plants in Taiwan, China, with a total annual capacity of 720,000 tons, plan to stop production next month due to efficiency reasons. Ethylene glycol has rebounded rapidly during the continuous decline, stimulated by supply-side news. The current operating rate of the polyester downstream remains above 90%, and the demand performance is slightly better than expected. [1] - Short Fiber: The PX market has experienced a rapid rise, but this round of rise is not due to a fundamental change. Domestic PTA maintains high production, and the domestic polyester load has declined. The short fiber price continues to closely follow the cost fluctuations. [1] - Styrene: The Asian styrene market is generally stable. Suppliers are reluctant to lower prices due to continuous losses, while buyers insist on pressing prices due to weak downstream polymer demand and compressed profits. Although the downstream demand is weak, the domestic market has a strong bullish sentiment due to export support. The market is in a weak balance state, and the short-term upward momentum needs to be driven by the overseas market. [1] - Urea: The export sentiment has slightly eased, and there is limited upside space due to insufficient domestic demand. There is support from anti-involution and the cost side below. [1] - PF: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is at a high level, and there are overseas arrivals, so the supply has increased. The downstream demand operating rate has weakened. In 2026, there will be more new production capacity, and the supply-demand surplus will further intensify, and the market expectation is weak. [1] - Propylene: There are fewer maintenance activities, the operating load is relatively high, and the supply pressure is relatively large. The improvement in the downstream is less than expected. The propylene monomer price is at a high level, the crude oil price has risen, and the cost support is strong. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, and there is a risk of an increase in crude oil prices. [1] - PVC: In 2026, there will be less global new production capacity, and the future expectation is relatively optimistic. Currently, there are fewer maintenance activities, new production capacity is being released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The demand has weakened, and the orders are not good. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, which will force the clearance of PVC production capacity. [1] - LPG: The January CP has risen more than expected, and the cost support for imported gas is relatively strong. The geopolitical conflicts between the United States, Venezuela, and the Middle East have escalated, and the short-term risk premium has increased. The trend of inventory accumulation in the EIA weekly C3 inventory has slowed down, and it is expected to gradually turn to inventory reduction. The domestic port inventory has also decreased. Domestic PDH maintains high production and deep losses. There is a rigid demand for global civil combustion, and the demand for MTBE from overseas olefin blending for gasoline has declined temporarily. Since January 1, 2026, naphtha has been re-taxed, and the long-term demand expectation for light cracking raw materials such as LPG has increased, and the performance of downstream olefin products is relatively strong. [1] Shipping - Container Shipping - European Line: It is expected to peak in mid-January. Airlines are still relatively cautious in their trial reflights. The pre-holiday restocking demand still exists. [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [8]. - For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties [8]. - Options strategy reports are written for each option variety based on underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - Various option varieties' underlying contracts are presented, including details such as the latest price, change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change [3]. 3.2 Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR for different option varieties are given, along with their changes. These PCR indicators are used to describe the strength of the option - underlying market and the timing of market turning points [4]. 3.3 Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels for each option variety are provided, along with the offset values, maximum call and put open interests [5]. 3.4 Option Factor - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for different option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call and put implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions 3.5.1 Energy - related Options (Crude Oil and LPG) - **Fundamentals**: For crude oil, the US military raid on Maduro has not damaged domestic oil and gas facilities; the rift between Saudi - UAE on the Yemen issue has not affected OPEC + coordination. NNPC aims to increase production. For LPG, the supply has no new increment, and chemical demand supports the price [7][9]. - **Market Analysis**: Crude oil has shown a weak - biased market trend over time. LPG has an oscillating and downward - biased market [7][9]. - **Option Factor Research**: Crude oil's implied volatility is below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. LPG's implied volatility is around the average, and the open interest PCR also shows a weak market [7][9]. - **Option Strategies**: For both crude oil and LPG, there are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options, and spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing long collar strategies [7][9]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol) - **Fundamentals**: For methanol, imports from Venezuela in 2025 - 2026 and the supply - demand situation are considered. For ethylene glycol, the port inventory situation is presented [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: Methanol shows an oversold rebound trend, while ethylene glycol shows a weak - biased trend [9][10]. - **Option Factor Research**: Methanol's implied volatility is around the historical average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Ethylene glycol's implied volatility is above the average, and the open interest PCR shows strong short - side power [9][10]. - **Option Strategies**: There are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options for methanol and short - selling volatility for ethylene glycol. Spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing long collar strategies [9][10]. 3.5.3 Olefin - related Options (PVC) - **Fundamentals**: The production capacity utilization rate of PVC is presented, with attention to future maintenance efforts [10]. - **Market Analysis**: PVC has shown a downward trend and then a rebound [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: PVC's implied volatility has decreased to below the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a continued weak trend [10]. - **Option Strategies**: A bull spread strategy for call options is constructed for directional gain, and spot long - hedging strategies involve holding spot long + buying at - the - money put options + selling out - of - the - money call options [10]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options (Rubber) - **Fundamentals**: The inventory and production data of natural and synthetic rubber are provided [11]. - **Market Analysis**: Rubber has shown a recovery trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: Rubber's implied volatility is approaching the average, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market [11]. - **Option Strategies**: There are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options, and there is no spot hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options (PTA) - **Fundamentals**: The PTA market's start - up rate and the operation of production facilities are presented [11]. - **Market Analysis**: PTA has shown an oversold rebound and short - term strong trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: PTA's implied volatility is at a relatively low level, and the open interest PCR indicates a strong market [11]. - **Option Strategies**: There are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options, and there is no spot hedging strategy [11]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash) - **Fundamentals**: For caustic soda, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises is given. For soda ash, the domestic effective production capacity is presented [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Caustic soda has shown a weak - biased trend, and soda ash has shown a low - level weak oscillation [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: Caustic soda's implied volatility is at a high level, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Soda ash's implied volatility is at a relatively high historical level, and the open interest PCR indicates a short - biased market [12]. - **Option Strategies**: For caustic soda, a bear spread strategy is constructed for directional gain, and a spot collar hedging strategy is used. For soda ash, volatility strategies involve short - selling volatility, and spot long - hedging strategies involve constructing long collar strategies [12]. 3.5.7 Other Options (Urea) - **Fundamentals**: The daily production data of urea are provided [13]. - **Market Analysis**: Urea has shown a short - term weak trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: Urea's implied volatility is at a low level, and the open interest PCR indicates strong short - side pressure [13]. - **Option Strategies**: There are no directional strategies. Volatility strategies involve selling a combination of call and put options with a long - biased delta, and spot hedging strategies involve holding spot long + buying at - the - money put options + selling out - of - the - money call options [13].

Price Performance - London Gold's latest price is 4429.35, with a change of -8.65 [1] - London Silver's latest price is 75.21, with a change of -3.78 [1] - London Platinum's latest price is 2298.00, with a change of -64.00 [1] - London Palladium's latest price is 1711.00, with a change of -62.00 [1] - WTI Crude's latest price is 57.76, with a change of 1.77 [1] - LME Copper's latest price is 12820.00, with a change of -300.50 [1] - The latest value of the US Dollar Index is 98.86, with a change of 0.12 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of Euro against US Dollar is 1.17, with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of British Pound against US Dollar is 1.34, with a change of -0.00 [1] - The latest exchange - rate of US Dollar against Japanese Yen is 156.87, with a change of 0.09 [1] Trading Data - COMEX Silver inventory's latest value is 13762.65, with a change of -101.33 [1] - SHFE Silver inventory's latest value is 637.65, with a change of 84.22 [1] - Gold ETF持仓's latest value is 1067.13, with no change [1] - Silver ETF持仓's latest value is 16215.43, with a change of 115.60 [1] - The latest value of the Shanghai Gold Exchange's silver inventory is not provided, and there is no change in the gold deferred - fee payment direction and a change of 0.00 in the silver deferred - fee payment direction [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, oil prices should not be overly shorted in the short - term. A range strategy of buying low and selling high is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now to observe OPEC's export price - support intention [3]. - For methanol, the current valuation is low, and the outlook for next year is marginally improving with limited downside. Due to the recent geopolitical instability in Iran, there is a feasibility of buying on dips [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expectation of increased production at the end of January, there will be bearish fundamentals, so it is advisable to take profits on rallies [8]. - For rubber, the stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The short - term trading strategy is neutral, with a short - selling strategy if it falls below 16,000. It is also recommended to partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [10][11][14]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market. In the short - term, electricity prices are expected to support PVC at the cost end, while in the medium - term, a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended before significant production cuts in the industry [16][17]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low with large upward repair space. It is advisable to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. - For polyethylene, OPEC + plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and the crude oil price may have bottomed. It is recommended to go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. - For polypropylene, under the background of weak supply and demand with high inventory pressure, the futures price may bottom out when the oversupply situation changes in Q1 next year [26]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up before the maintenance season. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory build - up stage after short - term inventory drawdown. There are medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory build - up cycle will continue. In the medium - term, there is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction. It is necessary to beware of rebound risks in the short - term due to the tense situation in Iran [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.60 yuan/barrel, a 2.02% decline, at 416.20 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil rose 1.00 yuan/ton, a 0.04% increase, to 2458.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 33.00 yuan/ton, a 1.14% increase, to 2929.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 3.83 million barrels to 419.06 million barrels, a 0.91% decrease; SPR increased by 0.25 million barrels to 413.46 million barrels, a 0.06% increase; gasoline inventories increased by 7.70 million barrels to 242.04 million barrels, a 3.29% increase; diesel inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels to 129.27 million barrels, a 4.52% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.06 million barrels to 22.98 million barrels, a 0.27% decrease; and aviation kerosene inventories increased by 0.05 million barrels to 44.03 million barrels, a 0.11% increase [2]. - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see for now [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 10 yuan/ton, Shandong by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 15 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 36 yuan/ton to 2231 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit was 127 yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Hebei, Hubei, and Jiangsu increased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract decreased by 14 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton [7]. - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies [8]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The stock market and commodities mostly rose, and the technical analysis of rubber prices is bullish but shows signs of weakness. There are different views from the long and short sides. The tire开工率 has marginally deteriorated. As of December 25, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 62.20%, 2.46 percentage points lower than the previous week and 0.02 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.74%, 0.98 percentage points higher than the previous week but 5.05 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 118.2 tons as of December 21, 2025, a 2.5% increase from the previous month [10][11][12]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a neutral short - term trading strategy, or wait and see. Short if it falls below 16,000. Partially build a position by buying the NR main contract and shorting the RU2609 [14]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 53 yuan to 4972 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4650 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The basis was - 255 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The 5 - 9 spread was - 137 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.6%, a 1.4% increase from the previous period, with the calcium - carbide method at 78.4% (a 0.1% decrease) and the ethylene method at 79.3% (a 5% increase). The overall downstream operating rate was 44.5%, a 0.9% decrease. Factory inventory was 30.9 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons), and social inventory was 106.3 tons (an increase of 0.3 tons) [15]. - **Strategy**: Short on rallies in the medium - term before significant production cuts in the industry [17]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5442 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 122 yuan/ton, an increase of 22 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6925 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6807 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan/ton. The basis was 118 yuan/ton, an increase of 46 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 138.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.5 yuan/ton. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 99.3 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton. The EB spread between the first and second contracts was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.7%, a 1.57% increase. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 13.23 tons, a decrease of 0.65 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 42.24%, a 1.77% increase [19]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter of next year [20]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6628 yuan/ton, a decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6525 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 103 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 83.39%, a 0.04% increase. The production enterprise inventory was 39.54 tons, a 2.47 - ton increase, and the trader inventory was 2.93 tons, a 0.17 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 40.8%, a 0.35% decrease. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 37 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan increase [22]. - **Strategy**: Go long on the LL5 - 9 spread on dips [23]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6340 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 144 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 73.85%, a 1.03% decrease. The production enterprise inventory was 46.77 tons, a 2.3 - ton decrease, the trader inventory was 20.47 tons, a 2.75 - ton increase, and the port inventory was 7.11 tons, a 0.48 - ton increase. The average downstream operating rate was 52.76%, a 0.48% decrease. The LL - PP spread was 144 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan decrease [24][25]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the oversupply situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom out [26]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract decreased by 50 yuan to 7286 yuan. The PX CFR price decreased by 14 dollars to 886 dollars. The basis was 1 yuan (an increase of 6 yuan), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 42 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX operating rate was 90.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the Asian operating rate was 81.2%, a 0.3% increase. A 820,000 - ton overseas plant in Kuwait was under maintenance, and the load of FCFC in Taiwan, China increased. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. In December, South Korea exported 433,000 tons of PX to China, a 42,000 - ton increase year - on - year. In November, the inventory was 4.02 million tons, a 50,000 - ton decrease from the previous month. The PXN was 367 dollars (a 2 - dollar decrease), the South Korean PX - MX was 147 dollars (a 7 - dollar decrease), and the naphtha crack spread was 90 dollars (a 1 - dollar decrease) [28]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips [29]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract remained unchanged at 5150 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 30 yuan to 5070 yuan. The basis was - 48 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was 60 yuan/ton, a 16 - yuan decrease. The PTA operating rate was 78.2%, a 0.1% increase. The downstream operating rate was 90.8%, unchanged. Some plants were under maintenance or restarted. The social inventory (excluding credit warrants) was 203 tons as of January 4, a 25,000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The spot processing fee of PTA increased by 43 yuan to 367 yuan, and the processing fee on the futures market increased by 14 yuan to 384 yuan [30]. - **Strategy**: Look for medium - term opportunities to go long on dips, paying attention to the rhythm [31]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 41 yuan to 3879 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 2 yuan to 3717 yuan. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The 5 - 9 spread was - 91 yuan/ton, unchanged. The ethylene glycol operating rate was 73.9%, a 0.2% increase, with the syngas - based method at 78.6% (a 2.8% increase) and the ethylene - based method at 71.3% (a 1.2% decrease). Some plants were under maintenance or planned to start production. The import arrival forecast was 178,000 tons, and the departure from East China ports on January 7 was 12,600 tons. The port inventory was 72.5 tons, a 5000 - ton decrease from the previous period. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 756 yuan, that of domestic ethylene - based production was - 892 yuan, and that of coal - based production was 188 yuan. The ethylene price remained unchanged at 745 dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 540 yuan [32]. - **Strategy**: Be cautious of short - term rebound risks due to the tense situation in Iran. Expect further valuation compression in the medium - term without further production cuts in China [33].

Core Viewpoint - Canadian commodity exports experienced growth for the second consecutive month in October, although the growth rate slowed due to a decline in crude oil and asphalt shipments, primarily influenced by price drops and refinery shutdowns in the U.S. [1] Group 1: Export Performance - Despite the slowdown, exports to countries outside the U.S. saw significant growth [1] - Energy remains a core export for Canada, with the majority directed to the U.S., but crude oil exports to other regions are on the rise [1] Group 2: Statistical Insights - Data from Statistics Canada indicates that in the first ten months of 2025, the share of crude oil exports to countries outside the U.S. reached 8.3%, compared to only 4.4% in the same period of 2024 [1]

Group 1 - The USD/CAD exchange rate continues to rise, driven by market concerns over potential Venezuelan oil returning to the market, which could intensify competition for North American oil supplies, thereby putting pressure on the Canadian dollar [1] - Despite signs of improvement in Canadian economic data, the USD remains stable ahead of key U.S. employment data, supporting a short-term strong trend for USD/CAD [1] - The core driver of the exchange rate's upward movement is the market's reassessment of the global oil supply landscape, particularly after the U.S. signaled a potential restart of Venezuelan oil imports, raising concerns about increased global oil supply and competition for Canadian oil [1] Group 2 - Canada's latest Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) has shown a significant improvement, returning to the expansion zone, indicating a notable recovery in domestic business activity [2] - The market is cautiously awaiting Canada's trade balance data to further assess the impact of external demand on the economy [2] - The overall performance of the USD remains stable, with the U.S. economy showing some resilience, although weak employment indicators are leading to a cautious market stance ahead of key data releases [2] Group 3 - Technically, the USD/CAD exchange rate is in a bullish trend, consistently trading above key short- and medium-term moving averages, with strong buying momentum evident [2] - The recent price action has confirmed sustained buying interest, with the RSI indicator in a strong zone, suggesting that upward potential has not yet been fully realized [2] - Key resistance and support levels are identified, with a potential breakthrough of resistance opening new upward movement, while failure to hold support could halt the short-term bullish trend [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1, with a long - position overweight strategy for the stock index. The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026 but could have a rebound after the Spring Festival, with a short - position hedge before the Spring Festival and a long - position underweight after. Commodities should be structurally allocated, with long - position overweight on precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities, long - position standard allocation (timing) on black building materials and agricultural products, and short - position standard allocation on crude oil [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Review of the Performance of Major Asset Classes - **Equity Market**: In December 2025, the A - share market oscillated upward, switching back to the growth - oriented style. Most primary industry indices rose, with national defense, communications, non - ferrous metals, non - bank finance, and machinery leading the monthly gains [8][10]. - **Bond Market**: The performance of short - and long - term bonds diverged. Short - term Treasury yields declined while long - term yields increased, and the Treasury term spread widened significantly. By December 31, 2025, the 2 - year and 5 - year Treasury yields dropped to 1.3605% and 1.3830% respectively, while the 10 - year and 30 - year yields rose to 1.8473% and 2.2674% [13]. - **Commodities**: The prices of domestic commodity futures were differentiated, with precious metals leading the gains. As of December 28, 2025, the precious metals index soared 14.38%, the metal index rose 6.18%, the industrial products index increased 1.44%, and the agricultural products index slightly declined 0.59% [17]. 2. Outlook and Analysis of Major Asset Classes - **Macroeconomic Aspect**: Abroad, the probability of further interest rate cuts by the Fed may decrease. Domestically, the probability of interest rate cuts in Q1 2026 is low, but a reserve requirement ratio cut is still expected [19][28]. - **Equity Assets**: In the short - to - medium term, the cross - year market has started, and the equity market is expected to start a new upward wave in Q1 2026. In the long - term, the policy and liquidity environment in 2026 are favorable to the market [31][32]. - **Bond Assets**: The bond market may continue its weak performance at the beginning of 2026, with the upper limit of the 10 - year Treasury yield before the Spring Festival likely between 1.90% - 1.95%. After the Spring Festival, there may be an oversold rebound opportunity [35][36]. - **Commodities**: The differentiation pattern of commodities will continue. Crude oil may remain weak after a short - term rebound. Industrial metals may face supply - demand imbalance, and agricultural product prices may fluctuate more due to various factors. Precious metals may experience significant short - term fluctuations but maintain an upward long - term trend [37][38]. 3. Allocation Strategies for Major Asset Classes - **Domestic Stock Index**: In 2026, the equity market should be strategically allocated, with a long - position overweight in January. Focus on industries such as the AI industry chain, leading companies going global, industries with improved supply - demand relationships, and the industrialization of cutting - edge technologies [40]. - **Commodities**: Increase the weight of commodities in the asset allocation. Overweight precious metals, non - ferrous metals, and new energy commodities; standard - allocate black building materials and agricultural products (timing); and short - allocate crude oil [41][42]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Hedge with short positions before the Spring Festival and underweight long positions after the Spring Festival. The bond market will remain volatile in 2026 and should be under - allocated [43].

Gold Market - Geopolitical tensions are easing, with Ukraine's President Zelensky expressing hope for an end to the conflict in the first half of the year, which may put pressure on gold prices [2] - The recent ADP employment data showed an increase of 41,000 jobs in December, below the market expectation of 47,000, indicating potential volatility in gold prices ahead of the upcoming non-farm payroll data [2] - Analyst Chen Yu from Bailihau believes that the significant rise in gold prices at the end of last year was driven by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and challenges to its independence, but warns of potential price corrections in the short term [2] - Technical analysis indicates a bearish trend, with prices breaking below the 20-day moving average, suggesting a likelihood of continued weakness [2] Oil Market - The oil market remains in a state of oversupply, with the U.S. continuing to source oil from Venezuela, which is expected to provide an indefinite supply of 50 million barrels [3] - Economic data from the U.S. shows a weak job market and declining inflation, which may negatively impact oil demand [3] - Political tensions are easing, with reduced risks of supply disruptions from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and Israel signaling no immediate action against Iran [4] - Technical indicators show a bearish trend, with prices remaining below the 20-day and 62-day moving averages, suggesting continued pressure on oil prices [4] U.S. Dollar Index - The U.S. dollar index is expected to rebound in early January due to previous market expectations of Federal Reserve easing and political interventions affecting the Fed's independence [5] - The likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in January is low, with a probability of 11.6% for a 25 basis point cut and 88.4% for maintaining current rates, indicating stability in the dollar index [6] - Technical analysis shows a bullish trend, with the index maintaining above the 20-day moving average and potential for upward movement if it breaks above the 62-day moving average [6] Nikkei 225 - The Nikkei 225 index has shown signs of weakness, with recent trading days closing lower, indicating potential further downside risk [7] - Despite the recent downturn, the index remains above the 20-day moving average, suggesting that a bearish outlook may be premature [7] Copper Market - The copper market has experienced a decline, with recent trading days closing lower and forming a bearish engulfing pattern, indicating potential further downside risk [8] - The 20-day moving average continues to trend upward, suggesting that the market may be more inclined towards a correction rather than a reversal [8] Market Overview - U.S. Treasury advisor Lavorgna suggests that the Federal Reserve should continue to cut rates [9] - The United Nations reports that global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.7% by 2026, down from 2.8% in 2025 [9] - President Trump states that Venezuela's oil revenue will only be used to purchase U.S.-made products [9] Upcoming Data/Events - Key upcoming data includes the Challenger job cuts report and initial jobless claims for the week ending January 3 [10]

Metal Market - Domestic base metals collectively declined, with all falling over 1%. Nickel led the drop with a 6.14% decrease, while copper, aluminum, and lead fell over 2% with copper down 2.76%, aluminum down 2.89%, and lead down 2.01% [1] - Lithium carbonate rose by 2.46%, while industrial silicon fell by 4.53%. Polycrystalline silicon hit a limit down with a 9% drop, priced at 53,610 yuan/ton [1][4] - In the black metal sector, stainless steel fell by 0.98% and iron ore by 0.37%, while other varieties saw slight increases, with rebar and hot-rolled coil both rising under 1% [1] - Precious metals saw declines, with COMEX gold down 0.48% and silver down 2.27%. Domestic gold fell by 0.73% and silver by 5.9% [1][2] Macro Environment - The central bank conducted a 99 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation today, with a bid amount of 99 billion yuan and a fixed interest rate of 1.40%, unchanged from previous operations [5] - The U.S. dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 98.70, with recent employment data indicating a drop in job vacancies, raising expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8][9] Oil Market - Both domestic oil prices increased, with U.S. oil rising by 0.46% and Brent oil by 0.48%. The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, supporting oil prices [10]

Group 1: Price Performance - London platinum's latest price is 2362.00 with a change of 116.00; London palladium's latest price is 1773.00 with a change of 51.00; LME copper's latest price is 13120.50 with a change of -251.50 [3] - The latest value of the US dollar index is 98.74 with a change of 0.14; the latest value of euro - US dollar exchange rate is 1.17 with a change of - 0.00; the latest value of pound - US dollar exchange rate is 1.35 with a change of - 0.00; the latest value of US dollar - Japanese yen exchange rate is 156.78 with a change of 0.11 [3] Group 2: Trading Data - COMEX silver's latest inventory is 13863.98 with a change of -108.05; SHFE silver's latest inventory is 553.43 with a change of -28.01 [4] - Gold ETF's latest holding is 1067.13 with no change; silver ETF's latest holding is 16099.83 with a change of -18.33 [4] - The deferred fee payment direction of SGE gold's latest data is 1 with a change of -1.00; the deferred fee payment direction of SGE silver's latest data is 2 with no change [4]