中国人民银行当日发布的金融统计数据显示，4月末，我国人民币贷款余额265.7万亿元，同比增长7.2%；社会融资规模存量为424万亿元，同 比增长8.7%；广义货币（M2）余额325.17万亿元，同比增长8%。 "4月是季初信贷'小月'，但从前4个月新增贷款超10万亿元来看，总量保持平稳，为经济回升向好提供了有力支持。"清华大学国家金融研究院 院长田轩认为，4月新增贷款约2800亿元，在还原地方债务置换影响后，当月信贷增速依然保持较高水平。同时，社会融资规模增速继续加 快，M2余额保持在320万亿元以上，这些保障了实体经济的融资需求。 14日，4月金融统计数据出炉。作为信贷投放的"小月"，4月金融数据有何亮点？信贷资金主要流向了哪些领域？利率调整还有多大空间？ 在专家看来，未来一段时期，金融总量仍有望保持平稳增长。5月，中国人民银行、金融监管总局、证监会联合推出一揽子金融政策。根据安 排，降准0.5个百分点将于15日落地，预计向金融市场提供长期流动性约1万亿元。 "这意味着金融机构被央行锁定的钱进一步减少，对企业的中长期资金供给有望随之增加。"西南财经大学中国金融研究院副教授万晓莉表示， 降准所释放的资金可持续 ...

Group 1 - The central bank reported that by the end of April, the social financing scale increased by 8.7% year-on-year, and the broad money supply (M2) grew by 8%, indicating a significant acceleration compared to the previous month [1][4] - The increase in social financing scale was primarily driven by accelerated government bond issuance, with a net financing of over 5 trillion yuan in the first four months of the year, which is approximately 3.6 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [2][3] - The issuance of special government bonds and local government special refinancing bonds has been ongoing, with a net financing of about 970 billion yuan in April alone, contributing to a 0.3 percentage point increase in the social financing growth rate [2][3] Group 2 - The M2 growth rate was influenced by a low base effect from the previous year, with the M2 balance reaching 325.17 trillion yuan by the end of April, reflecting a 1 percentage point increase from the end of March [4][5] - The reduction in deposits by approximately 870 billion yuan in April, compared to a decrease of about 3 trillion yuan year-on-year, had a positive impact on M2 growth, contributing about 1 percentage point [6][7] - The overall credit growth remains robust, with a total of 10.06 trillion yuan in new loans issued in the first four months, although April's single-month new loan issuance was lower than the same month last year [8][9] Group 3 - The ongoing local debt replacement efforts are expected to support long-term economic development, as they allow local governments to alleviate debt burdens and redirect resources towards development and consumption [8][9] - Market analysts predict that the growth of financial aggregates is likely to remain stable in the near future, despite uncertainties in foreign trade and the traditional "small month" for credit in May [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - China's foreign exchange reform has gradually established a dynamic equilibrium exchange rate system that emphasizes both market - led pricing and macro - prudential management through a series of reforms from 2015 to 2022 [14] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by international payments, interest rate parity, and relative economic strength. When these three factors are in the same direction, it is more likely to form a trend of appreciation [194] - The offshore RMB market's liquidity is supported by cross - border trade settlement for long - term growth and central bank support and market financing for short - term stability [87] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Reform - China's foreign exchange reform includes the improvement of the mid - price mechanism in 2015, the introduction of the counter - cyclical factor in 2017, the dynamic adjustment of cross - border financing macro - prudential parameters in 2019, and the strengthening of the foreign exchange risk reserve system in 2022 [14] - The mid - price mechanism combines the previous day's closing price and the change of a basket of currencies, which makes the mid - price close to the market and takes into account external stability [21] - The counter - cyclical factor guides market rational expectations, weakens the self - reinforcement mechanism of pro - cyclical behavior, and enhances the resilience and stability of the exchange rate mechanism [24] - Since the launch of the LPR reform in August 2019, the loan quotation mechanism has become more market - oriented, breaking the "implicit lower limit" of loan interest rates [27] - The adjustment of cross - border financing macro - prudential parameters aims to increase cross - border financing quotas, relieve RMB depreciation pressure, and optimize the asset - liability structure of domestic entities [32] 3.2 Domestic RMB Foreign Exchange Market - The RMB foreign exchange market is divided into the bank - to - customer market and the inter - bank market. The inter - bank market has high liquidity and large trading volume [41] - The inter - bank foreign exchange derivatives market has developed since 2005, with swap transactions being the most important trading method [62] - In the spot market, the willingness of enterprises to settle foreign exchange has weakened, and the demand for purchasing foreign exchange has increased. In the forward market, enterprises tend to lock in the cost of purchasing foreign exchange in advance [66] - Short - term foreign exchange derivatives dominate the market, mainly meeting the short - term foreign exchange capital allocation and risk management needs of banks and enterprises [81] 3.3 Offshore RMB Market - The long - term liquidity of the offshore RMB market is mainly supplied by cross - border trade settlement, and the short - term liquidity is obtained through market financing and official support [87] - The offshore RMB market has various products, including CNH spot, RMB offshore non - deliverable forward, RMB offshore deliverable forward, RMB futures, and RMB futures options [94] - The participants in the offshore RMB market are diversified, and the proportion of non - financial institutional investors has increased, narrowing the gap between the offshore and onshore exchange rates [101] 3.4 QFII, RQFII, and QDII - QFII and RQFII systems have been gradually liberalized, allowing foreign institutional investors to invest in the Chinese domestic capital market. The two systems have been unified [106] - The QDII system allows domestic institutional investors to invest overseas, and its investment scope and scale have been gradually expanded [108] 3.5 RMB Internationalization - RMB internationalization has gone through three stages: using trade settlement as a breakthrough, accelerating investment and financial opening, and enhancing global influence [112] - To promote RMB internationalization, China has promoted RMB pricing in commodities, expanded the opening of the domestic financial market, and strengthened RMB settlement in neighboring and "Belt and Road" countries [122] 3.6 SWIFT and CIPS - SWIFT is the most important cross - border payment system globally, but the increasing use of financial sanctions by the US has made the international community aware of the risks of the US - dollar - dominated system. CIPS is playing an increasingly important role in RMB cross - border settlement [127] - In 2024, CIPS handled a large number of RMB cross - border payment transactions, and the RMB's share in global payments has increased, ranking fourth [132] 3.7 RMB Exchange Rate Analysis - Short - term RMB exchange rate trends are determined by capital supply and demand, market expectations, and policy and external environments [140] - The issuance of offshore central bank bills affects the supply and demand of offshore RMB, and the swap point reflects market expectations for the RMB [169] - The RMB exchange rate is affected by international payments, interest rate parity, and relative economic strength. When these factors are in the same direction, it is beneficial for the RMB exchange rate [194] - The international balance of payments affects the RMB exchange rate. Trade surpluses lead to RMB appreciation, and capital outflows lead to RMB depreciation [195] - Interest rate parity affects capital flow. When the RMB interest rate is higher than the US dollar interest rate, it supports the RMB; otherwise, the RMB is under pressure [195] - Relative economic strength affects market expectations. When China's economic prospects are better than the US, the RMB has the potential to appreciate [197]

5月12日盘后，中美发布《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》，本次中美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展， 大幅降低双边关税水平，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方在初 始的90天内暂停实施24%的"对等关税"，中方也相应在初始的90天内暂停实施24%的反制关税。 核心资产优质抓手—A500ETF基金（512050）近期斩获多个同类第一 说到中国资产估值重塑，浓眉大眼、基本面良好的核心资产或直接受益。而当我们在谈论核心资产时， 大家也许会瞬间想到是茅台和宁王这样的蓝筹股，对，但不全对，核心资产是一个组合，是能反映经济 发展动能，能在经济向上周期跑赢通胀、经济增速，在经济向下周期抗跌的资产组合。 当下来看，或许编制独特的中证A500指数更能符合这个定义，指数采取行业均衡配置与龙头优选双策 略，实现细分行业全覆盖，并通过循环选样法保持动态平衡，融合价值与成长属性，既分散风险，又捕 捉成长机遇。指数前十大权重股中，既有像贵州茅台、、中国平安、招商银行、长江电力、美的集团、 紫金矿业、兴业银行等传统大市值白马，又有像宁德时代、亚迪、东方财富这样的新兴成长行业龙头。 如果大家对这一宽基指数感兴趣，可 ...

文章来源 本文摘自：2025年5月13日发布的 双降之后，长债交易降温 唐元懋 ，资格证书编号： S0880524040002 报告导读： 上周资金市场整体升温，银行间债市杠杆率略降，一级市场国开和农发债热度 分化，二级市场基金和农商行大举加仓短债，超长债交易继续降温。理财规模增幅较弱。 资金市场：资金交易升温、杠杆率略降。 过去一周资金市场整体升温。主要融入方净融入金额上升，主要 融出方净融入金额下降。银行间总融入融出回购余额上升，银行间债市杠杆率略降。分机构看，商业银行 / 政策性银行、保险公司杠杆率下降，证券公司、非法人产品杠杆率上升。隔夜回购占比下降。 一级市场：新发债热度分化。 4/29-5/9 期间，有 2 只 10Y 国开债和 1 只 10Y 其他政金债（农发债） 发行。国开债全场倍数上升，其他政金债全场倍数下降。国开债一二级价差收窄、其他政金债一二级价差 走阔。一致性预期方面，国开债和其他政金债边际倍数均下降。 二级市场：基金和农商行大举加仓短债，超长债交易活跃度继续减弱。 过去一周二级市场短债交易活跃度 向好，长债超长债交易活跃度走弱。 30 年国债换手率下降，中长期纯债型基金久期平均数上升 ...

策略报告 | 投资策略 关税破冰，以斗争求合作 证券研究报告 政策与大类资产配置周观察 海内外政策要闻 习近平主席对俄罗斯进行国事访问并出席纪念苏联伟大卫国战争胜利 80 周年庆 典。5 月 8 日上午，俄罗斯总统普京同中国国家主席习近平在莫斯科克里姆林宫 举行会谈。两国元首就中俄关系和重大国际和地区问题深入交换意见，一致同意 坚定不移深化战略协作，推动中俄关系稳定、健康、高水平发展；共同弘扬正确 二战史观，维护联合国权威和地位，维护国际公平正义。 国常会贯彻习近平总书记在部分省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会讲话。 国务院总理李强5月9日主持召开国务院常务会议，学习贯彻习近平总书记在部分 省区市"十五五"时期经济社会发展座谈会上的重要讲话精神。会议强调，要准 确把握党中央对"十五五"时期的阶段性要求，自觉对标对表，合理确定各领域 目标任务，充分体现党中央战略意图。 大类资产轮动展望：权益仍处于赛点2.0第三阶段攻坚战。4月政治局会议定调 强化底线思维，充分备足预案。5月7日一行一会一局出台一揽子金稳措施，提前 加力，以稳应变，继续攻坚。重视黄金，债券重点挖掘转债。目前中美关税压力 有所缓和，以高质量发展 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent issuance of the "Opinions on Financial Support for Guangzhou Nansha to Deepen Comprehensive Cooperation in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area," which outlines 30 key measures to enhance financial services and support various industries in Nansha, aiming to strengthen its role in regional cooperation and development [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Financial Support for Industries - The "Opinions" emphasize support for technology innovation industries, allowing financial institutions to innovate bill discount products and increase financing support for eligible enterprises [1][2]. - In high-end manufacturing, the document encourages qualified manufacturing and technology enterprises to issue technology innovation bonds and explore mixed financing models [1][2]. - Financial institutions are urged to enhance support for marine industries, commercial aerospace, and unmanned industries, including investments in marine high-tech industries and major marine infrastructure projects [2]. Group 2: Support for Youth and Entrepreneurship - The "Opinions" propose equal access to local entrepreneurial loan interest subsidies, guarantee fee subsidies, and insurance subsidies for eligible Hong Kong and Macao residents and youth projects in Nansha [2]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to facilitate employment and internships for Hong Kong and Macao residents [2]. Group 3: Development of Specialized Financial Services - The document highlights the importance of green finance, encouraging the Guangzhou Futures Exchange to explore electricity futures and enhance carbon account mechanisms for differentiated financial services [2]. - It supports qualified enterprises in issuing green and sustainable bonds in Hong Kong and Macao [2]. Group 4: Digital Finance and AI - The "Opinions" advocate for the development of digital financial services, including support for generative AI model development and applications in finance, as well as smart credit and investment services [3]. - Establishing a digital finance research think tank is also mentioned to support cross-border cooperation in digital finance projects [3]. Group 5: Cross-Border Asset Management Center - The document calls for the accelerated establishment of a cross-border asset management center in the Greater Bay Area, encouraging multinational companies to set up global or regional fund management headquarters in Nansha [4]. Group 6: Strategic Industry Development - Nansha aims to focus on seven strategic industries and leverage six industrial parks to achieve breakthroughs, including strengthening existing industries and introducing new emerging sectors like AI and intelligent networking [4]. - The article mentions specific initiatives for industrial parks, such as creating an integrated circuit industry ecosystem and enhancing smart manufacturing equipment supply chains [4].

宏 观 研 究 "反脆弱"系列 4 月下旬开启的政策窗口期，释放出哪些 "新" 动向？关税谈判的不确定下，增量政策或如 何"因时因势"推出？本文结合历史经验与当下经济形势展开剖析，可供参考。 ⚫ 政策窗口期的"新"信号？"坚定不移办好自己的事"，"稳就业稳经济、稳市场稳预期" 4 月中央政治局在下旬提前召开，讨论扩内需、促消费、稳定就业等方面政策。本次会议 对外部风险保持高度警惕，首次采用"国际经贸斗争"表述，内部聚焦高质量发展，强调 "坚定不移办好自己的事"，"稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期"。政策工具箱呈现灵活性 与超常规双重特征，强调"根据形势变化及时推出增量储备政策，加强超常规逆周期调节"。 4 月中央政治局会议后，国新办围绕稳就业、稳市场两度召开发布会，阐释政策部署执行 细节。4 月 28 日发布会以稳就业为核心，重点阐释三方面政策执行情况。一是稳内需与稳 就业协同推进。消费以"以旧换新"补贴、育儿补贴制度及文旅等服务消费金融支持为重 点。二是多维度拓展就业空间，以高校毕业生、农民工、困难人员为保障重点。三是强化 民营经济支持，加大科技、绿色等领域信贷投放，完善民企融资信用信息共享平台等。 5 月 ...

Core Viewpoint - The document outlines the strategic focus of Guangzhou Nansha on seven key industries and six industrial parks to enhance its role in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area cooperation, supported by a comprehensive set of financial measures from various regulatory bodies [1][2][3]. Group 1: Financial Support Measures - The "Opinions" document proposes 30 key measures to enhance financial services for innovation, social welfare, and cross-border financial innovation [1][2]. - Financial institutions are encouraged to innovate financial products like bill discounting and diversify intellectual property financing to support technology-driven enterprises [1]. - Support for high-end manufacturing includes issuing technology innovation bonds and exploring mixed financing models for qualified manufacturing and technology enterprises [1][2]. Group 2: Industry Development Focus - The strategy emphasizes support for marine industries, commercial aerospace, and unmanned industries, with financial institutions encouraged to enhance services in these areas [2]. - Youth innovation and entrepreneurship are prioritized, with policies to support Hong Kong and Macao residents in accessing local entrepreneurial loans and subsidies [2]. - The document highlights the importance of green finance, encouraging the development of renewable energy futures and carbon accounting mechanisms [2]. Group 3: Digital Finance and AI - The document stresses the importance of artificial intelligence as a key driver for high-quality economic development, promoting digital financial services and smart financial applications [3]. - Establishing a cross-border asset management center in the Greater Bay Area is a key initiative to attract multinational companies [3]. Group 4: Industrial Park Development - Nansha's six industrial parks will implement targeted strategies, such as the integrated circuit industry park focusing on a complete ecosystem from design to manufacturing [4]. - The advanced manufacturing park aims to strengthen the smart manufacturing equipment supply chain and high-end shipbuilding [4].

一、 宏观数据速览 | 发布日期 | 指标日期 | 指标名称 | 单位 | 当期值 | 上期值 | 去年同期值 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 20250416 | 2025/03 | GDP:不变价:当季同比 | % | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.30 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 制造业 PMI | % | 49.00 | 50.50 | 50.40 | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 非制造业 PMI:商务活 | % | 50.40 | 50.80 | 51.20 | | | | 动 | | | | | | 20250430 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:制造业 | % | 50.40 | 51.20 | 51.40 | | 20250506 | 2025/04 | 财新 PMI:服务业经营 活动指数 | % | 50.70 | 51.90 | 52.50 | | 20250414 | 2025/03 | 社会融资规模增量:当 月值 | 亿元 | | 58894.00 22331.00 | 4 ...