Core Viewpoint - In November, the industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in China experienced a year-on-year real growth of 4.8%, indicating a stable industrial production environment and ongoing industrial upgrading supported by new policies [1][2][5]. Group 1: Industrial Performance - The industrial added value increased by 0.44% month-on-month in November, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 6.0% from January to November [5][9]. - The mining industry saw a year-on-year growth of 6.3%, manufacturing grew by 4.6%, and the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry increased by 4.3% in November [5][6]. - The growth rate of industrial added value in November decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to October, while the month-on-month growth rate accelerated by 0.27 percentage points [6][9]. Group 2: High-tech and Equipment Manufacturing - The high-end development of the industrial sector is evident, with the added value of equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing growing by 7.7% and 8.4% year-on-year, respectively [6][7]. - The cumulative added value of equipment manufacturing accounted for 36.4% and high-tech manufacturing for 16.9% of the total industrial added value [6][7]. - Notable product growth includes 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles, with year-on-year increases of 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0%, respectively [8]. Group 3: Market Demand and Policy Impact - Policies such as "two highs" and "two new" have effectively stimulated market demand, leading to increased production and supporting industrial growth [2][7]. - In the first eleven months, the added value of equipment manufacturing grew by 9.3%, while high-tech manufacturing increased by 9.2%, indicating strong demand in these sectors [7][9]. - The overall industrial production remains stable, with ongoing optimization and upgrading of industries, contributing to economic stability [2][9].

2025年11月宏观经济数据 冠通期货研究咨询部 日期 2025年12月15日 宏观数据 2025年12月15日，国家统计局公布11月宏观经济数据。总的来看，11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战 。下阶段，要坚持以习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想为指导，深入贯彻落实党的二十大和二十届历次全会、中央经济工作会议精神，坚持稳中求进工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，持续扩 大内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长。 一、全年粮食实现丰收，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上全年全国粮食产量14298亿斤，比上年增加167.5亿斤，增长1.2%，稳定在1.4万亿斤以上。其中，秋粮产量10732亿斤，比上年增加163.6亿斤，增长1.5%。全国谷物产量13204亿斤，比上年增加158.4亿斤，增长1.2%。粮食 播种面积增加、单产提高。全国粮食播种面积17.91亿亩，比上年增加134.8万亩，增长0.1%；粮食单产399.1公斤/亩，每亩产量比上年增加4.4公斤，增长1.1% ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观年报 新质生产力加速培育 内需民生政策精准发力 20251215 作者：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 交易咨询号：Z0022772 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 年度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 中央经济工作会议 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 | | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 提振消费、城乡居民增收、 | 提振消费、提高投资效益、扩 | 新质生产力、现代化产业体系 | 科技创新现代化产业，数字经 济、人工智能，创业投资、股 | | | ...

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) reached 444,035 billion yuan from January to November 2025, showing a year-on-year decline of 2.6% (on a comparable basis) [1] - Private fixed asset investment decreased by 5.3% year-on-year [1] Investment by Industry - Investment in the primary industry was 8,770 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 2.7% [3] - Investment in the secondary industry totaled 162,243 billion yuan, growing by 3.9% [3] - Investment in the tertiary industry was 273,022 billion yuan, reflecting a decline of 6.3% [3] Secondary Industry Breakdown - Industrial investment in the secondary industry grew by 4.0% year-on-year [4] - Mining investment increased by 4.0%, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% [4] - Investment in the electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industry surged by 10.7% [4] Tertiary Industry Insights - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) in the tertiary industry fell by 1.1% [4] - Notable growth in pipeline transportation investment at 16.8%, water transportation at 8.9%, and railway transportation at 2.7% [4] Regional Investment Trends - Eastern region investment declined by 6.6%, central region by 1.7%, western region by 0.2%, and northeastern region by 14.0% [4] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprise fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% [5] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises fell by 2.2% [5] - Foreign enterprise fixed asset investment saw a significant decline of 14.1% [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In November, the growth rates of fixed - asset investment and social consumer goods retail总额 were lower than market expectations, while the export growth rate exceeded expectations [4][23]. - The year - on - year decline of real estate sales volume and price continued in November, and the data in early December also showed the same trend [4][23]. - As of the end of October, 5000 billion yuan of new policy - based financial instruments had been fully invested, but the investment data in October and November did not show obvious improvement [4][23]. - The relatively stable international environment after the China - US summit at the end of October is beneficial to China's exports, and stable export confidence is conducive to the growth of private investment [4][23]. - The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed to implement a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy next year to promote investment to stop falling and rebound and boost consumption [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 2.2% decline [1][5]. - From January to November, the broad infrastructure investment (including electricity) increased by 0.1% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 1.5% [1][5]. - From January to November, the manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% year - on - year, higher than the market expectation of 0.6% [1][5]. - From January to November, the national real estate development investment decreased by 15.9% year - on - year, worse than the market expectation of a 15.4% decline [1][5]. - From January to November, private fixed - asset investment decreased by 5.3% year - on - year [5]. - In November, manufacturing investment decreased by 4.5% year - on - year, and narrow - sense infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 9.7% year - on - year [5]. - In November, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.03% month - on - month, showing a continuous decline for ten consecutive months [5]. 3.2 Real Estate - From January to November, the sales area of new commercial housing decreased by 7.8% year - on - year, and the sales volume decreased by 11.1% year - on - year [2][9]. - In the fourth quarter, the daily average transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased significantly year - on - year, and the national real estate sales were still at the bottom [10]. - In November, the second - hand housing prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.1% month - on - month, with the decline expanding [2][10]. - In November, the real estate development enterprise's available funds decreased by 32.6% year - on - year [11]. - In November, the new housing start - up area decreased by 28% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 25% year - on - year [11]. 3.3 Industrial Added Value - In November, the value - added of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 4.8% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 5.0% [2][12]. - In November, the value - added of high - tech manufacturing increased by 8.4% year - on - year, maintaining rapid growth [2][12]. 3.4 Foreign Trade - In November, China's exports denominated in US dollars increased by 5.9% year - on - year, exceeding expectations, and imports increased by 1.9% year - on - year [2][14]. - From January to November, China's cumulative export amount increased by 5.4% year - on - year, and the cumulative import amount decreased by 0.6% year - on - year [14]. 3.5 Consumption - In November, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.3% year - on - year, lower than the market expectation of 2.9% [3][18]. - In November, among the retail sales of consumer goods by units above the quota, categories with relatively fast year - on - year growth included communication equipment, cultural and office supplies, etc. Categories with relatively fast year - on - year decline included household appliances and audio - visual equipment, building and decoration materials, etc. [19]. 3.6 Service Industry and Employment - In November, the national service industry production index increased by 4.2% year - on - year, hitting a new low for the year [3][21]. - In November, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.1%, remaining the same as the previous month and 0.1 percentage point higher than the same month of the previous year [3][21].

Economic Performance - In November, industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, which is 0.1 percentage points lower than October and 1.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year[4] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 1.3% year-on-year in November, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline, and was below market expectations[12] - Fixed asset investment showed a cumulative year-on-year decline of 2.6% from January to November, with private fixed asset investment down by 5.3%[21] Sector Analysis - Manufacturing investment from January to November saw a cumulative year-on-year increase of 1.9%, while infrastructure investment decreased by 1.1% and real estate investment fell by 15.9%[23] - High-tech industries maintained strong performance, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.2% in industrial added value from January to November[2] - Real estate new construction area decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with sales area down by 7.8% and sales revenue down by 11.1%[28] Consumer Behavior - The decline in retail sales was particularly pronounced in post-real estate consumption categories such as furniture and home appliances, which saw significant drops[15] - Online retail accounted for 31.7% of total retail sales, with a cumulative year-on-year growth of 9.1%[14] Policy Recommendations - The macroeconomic policy should consider early implementation to address potential uncertainties in the first quarter of 2026, especially given the late timing of the Spring Festival[32] - Short-term focus on monetary easing measures such as interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions is recommended[32] Risks - Potential risks include a resurgence of global inflation, a faster-than-expected economic slowdown in Europe and the U.S., and increasing international geopolitical complexities[32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main economic indicators in November 2025 further declined, with the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods all showing a downward trend. However, the month - on - month growth rate of industrial added value increased, and the month - on - month decline of fixed - asset investment narrowed. [1][2] - In the bond market, investors should gradually become more optimistic about the bond market. The expected fluctuation center of the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%. In the long term, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets, but attention should be paid to the structure. [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Event - On December 15, 2025, the National Bureau of Statistics released the economic data for November 2025, including the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size of 4.8%, the cumulative year - on - year decline of fixed - asset investment from January to November of 2.6%, and the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in November of 1.3%. [1][6][9] Comment Scale - above industrial production: year - on - year growth rate decreased but month - on - month growth rate increased - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value above a designated size was 4.8%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from October. The month - on - month growth rate was + 0.44%, an increase from October. [2][6] - Among the three major categories, the year - on - year growth rate of the mining industry increased, while those of the manufacturing industry and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water decreased. [2][6] January - November fixed - asset investment: cumulative year - on - year decline widened, but the month - on - month decline in November narrowed - From January to November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment was - 2.6%, with the decline widening. The month - on - month growth rate in November was - 1.03%, with the decline narrowing. [2][13] - The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of real estate, manufacturing, and general infrastructure investment from January to November all decreased, and the year - on - year growth rates of the three sub - items in November were all weak. [17] Total retail sales of consumer goods: year - on - year growth rate continued to decline, and the month - on - month growth rate was weaker than the seasonal average - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods was 1.3%, a decrease from the previous month. The month - on - month growth rate was - 0.42%, weaker than the seasonal average and lower than the same - period levels in 2023 and 2024. [2][18] - The year - on - year growth rates of different types of consumer goods all decreased in November compared with the previous month. [2][18] Bond Market Views Interest - rate bonds - Since August 2025, the yield of Treasury bonds has shown obvious differentiation. The short - end yield has fluctuated little and declined steadily, while the long - end yield, especially the 30 - year yield, has been on an upward trend, and the Treasury bond yield curve has steepened significantly. [3][22] - With the current loose capital situation and the weak fundamental trend, investors should gradually become more optimistic about the bond market, and the expected fluctuation center of the 10Y Treasury bond yield is 1.75%. [3][22] Convertible bonds - Since the beginning of 2025 (as of December 12), the change rate of the CSI Convertible Bond Index was + 16.5%, and the change rate of the CSI All - Share Index was + 21.8%. The performance of the convertible bond market was weaker than that of the equity market. [3][31] - Against the background of the slow - bull expectation of the equity market and the pattern where the demand in the convertible bond market is stronger than the supply and difficult to change, convertible bonds are still relatively high - quality assets in the long term, and more attention should be paid to the structure. [3][31]

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to show a stable and progressive development trend, with a focus on implementing proactive macro policies and promoting high-quality development [2][6] - The total grain production for the year is expected to exceed 1.4 trillion jin, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value above designated size increased by 4.8% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.44% [3] - The equipment manufacturing industry and high-tech manufacturing industry saw significant growth, with increases of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The production of 3D printing equipment, industrial robots, and new energy vehicles grew by 100.5%, 20.6%, and 17.0% year-on-year respectively [3] Retail Sales - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, a year-on-year increase of 1.3% [4] - Online retail sales amounted to 144,582 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, and physical goods online retail sales accounted for 25.9% of total retail sales [4] - Service retail sales grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with significant growth in cultural, sports, and travel services [4] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment increased by 1.9% [5] - Infrastructure investment fell by 1.1%, and real estate development investment dropped by 15.9% [5] - Investment in high-tech industries, such as information services and aerospace manufacturing, saw significant increases of 29.6% and 19.7% respectively [5] Policy Impact - A series of proactive macro policies have effectively supported stable economic operations, leading to expanded consumer demand and increased key investments [7][8] - The implementation of consumption upgrade policies has resulted in significant sales growth in home appliances and communication equipment [8] - The industrial production growth was supported by policies promoting market demand and industrial upgrades [8] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, marking a continuous recovery trend [9] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a month-on-month increase of 0.1%, indicating a narrowing decline trend since August [10][11] Long-term Economic Outlook - The resilience of the economy remains strong, with macro policies providing robust support and new growth drivers emerging [12][13] - The expansion of market demand and the continuous growth of new economic drivers are expected to positively impact economic development [12][14] - The upcoming economic policies aim to enhance domestic demand and optimize supply, ensuring a solid foundation for future growth [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights stable growth in industrial production, with significant increases in equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors [1] - From January to November, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 6.0% year-on-year, with mining, manufacturing, and electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sectors growing by 6.3%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively in November [1] - Equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing saw added value growth of 7.7% and 8.4% respectively, surpassing the overall industrial growth by 2.9 and 3.6 percentage points [1] Group 2 - In November, the national service industry production index grew by 4.2% year-on-year, indicating stable growth in the service sector [1] - From January to November, the service industry production index increased by 5.6%, with large-scale service enterprises' revenue growing by 7.6% year-on-year [1] - The business activity index for the service industry was recorded at 49.5% in November, while the business activity expectation index stood at 55.9% [1] Group 3 - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4% year-on-year from January to November, reflecting a faster growth rate compared to the same period last year [2] - The retail sales of services grew by 5.4% year-on-year, with a continuous recovery over three months, outpacing the growth of goods retail sales [2] - Online retail sales of physical goods rose by 5.7% year-on-year, accounting for 25.9% of total retail sales, indicating a shift towards digital, green, and health-oriented consumption trends [2]

Core Insights - National fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November 2025, amounting to 444,035 billion yuan [1][3] - Private fixed asset investment saw a more significant decline of 5.3% year-on-year [1][4] Investment by Sector - First industry investment reached 8,770 billion yuan, growing by 2.7% year-on-year [3][4] - Second industry investment totaled 162,243 billion yuan, with a growth of 3.9% year-on-year [3][4] - Third industry investment was 273,022 billion yuan, declining by 6.3% year-on-year [3][4] Industrial Investment Breakdown - Industrial investment within the second industry grew by 4.0% year-on-year [1][3] - Mining investment increased by 4.0%, while manufacturing investment rose by 1.9% [1][3] - Investment in electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply surged by 10.7% [1][3] Infrastructure and Regional Investment - Infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply) in the third industry decreased by 1.1% year-on-year [3] - Investment in pipeline transportation grew by 16.8%, while water transportation and railway transportation investments increased by 8.9% and 2.7%, respectively [3] - Eastern region investment fell by 6.6%, central region by 1.7%, western region by 0.2%, and northeastern region by 14.0% [3] Investment by Registration Type - Domestic enterprise fixed asset investment decreased by 2.6% year-on-year [3][4] - Investment from Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan enterprises declined by 2.2% [3][4] - Foreign enterprise fixed asset investment saw a significant drop of 14.1% [3][4]