Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content Summary by Categories Price - **Silicon Iron**: On September 4, 2025, the latest prices of 72 silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia were 5200 and 5250 respectively, with no daily change but a weekly decrease of 150 and 100. The export price of 72 silicon iron in Tianjin was 1055 US dollars, with no daily or weekly change. The latest price of 75 silicon iron in Shaanxi was 5950, with no daily change but a weekly increase of 50 [2]. - **Silicon Manganese**: On September 4, 2025, the latest factory - ex prices of 6517 silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Guizhou, and Yunnan were 5680, 5500, 5700, 5650, and 5650 respectively, with no daily change but weekly decreases ranging from 70 to 120 [2]. Supply - **Silicon Iron**: The production data of 136 silicon iron enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented, including monthly and weekly production, and the monthly capacity utilization rates of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The weekly production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025 are shown, as well as the monthly procurement prices and quantities of 6517 silicon manganese by HeSteel Group [6]. Demand - **Silicon Iron**: Related demand indicators such as China's estimated and statistical monthly crude steel production, national magnesium production, and the procurement prices and quantities of FeSi75 - B by HeSteel Group from 2021 - 2025 are provided [4]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The demand indicators of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, including estimated crude steel production, silicon manganese demand, and export volume, are presented [4][7]. Inventory - **Silicon Iron**: The weekly inventory data of 60 sample silicon iron enterprises in China, including those in Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Shaanxi, from 2021 - 2025 are provided, as well as daily warehouse receipt and effective forecast data [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The daily warehouse receipt, effective forecast, and total inventory data of silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025, as well as the weekly inventory data of 63 sample enterprises in China, are presented [7]. Cost and Profit - **Silicon Iron**: The cost - related data such as electricity prices in Qinghai, Ningxia, Shaanxi, and Inner Mongolia, and the market price of semi - coke in Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profit data include the production cost, spot profit, and export profit of silicon iron in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia [5]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The cost - related data such as the factory - ex price of chemical coke in Ordos and the prices of various manganese ores at ports from 2021 - 2025 are provided. The profit data include the profits of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, the northern and southern regions [6][7].

Report Information - Report Title: Ferrous Alloy Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: September 3, 2025 - Author: Chen Mintao (Z0022731) [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The recent trading logic is the production restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3 parade, leading to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferrous alloy furnace materials. The ferrous alloy prices have followed the decline of coking coal prices. However, the possibility and space for further decline are limited. There is still support at the bottom, but there is also pressure at the top under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit of ferrous alloys has been continuously declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure at the top. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. Key Points by Section Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for silicon ferroalloy is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.45% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 28.0%. The monthly price range forecast for silicon manganese alloy is also 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.08% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 20.9% [3] Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, to prevent inventory depreciation losses, they can short ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) according to their inventory situation, with a selling orientation and a hedging ratio of 15%. The recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3] - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory, to prevent the increase in procurement costs due to the rise of ferrous alloy prices, they can buy ferrous alloy futures (SF2511, SM2601) at the current stage, with a buying orientation and a hedging ratio of 25%. The recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3] Core Contradiction - The price of ferrous alloys has followed the decline of coking coal. Although there is still a possibility of further decline, the space is limited. There is support at the bottom, but pressure at the top under high operating rates and weak downstream demand. The profit has been declining, and there is a possibility of production reduction. The inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling. It is more cost - effective to go long on the spread between silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, and it is advisable to go long on the 01 spread of the two silicons at - 400 [4] Bullish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The demand for silicon ferroalloy in five major steel products is 2.06 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon ferroalloy warehouse receipts are 9.92 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 16.21 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese alloy in five major steel products is 12.67 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 14.9 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 33.28 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 48.18 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7] Bearish Factors - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The supply of ferrous alloys is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. The enterprise inventory is 6.29 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, and the market doubts the growth of terminal steel demand, resulting in relatively weak demand for silicon manganese alloy. The production is 21.34 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7] Daily Data - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [7] - **Silicon Manganese Alloy**: The daily data includes information such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, raw material prices, and warehouse receipts [8] Term Structure Spread and Seasonal Charts - There are term structure spread charts for silicon ferroalloy, silicon manganese alloy, and coking coal, as well as various seasonal charts for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese alloy, including market price, basis, and futures spread seasonal charts [9][10][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is weak, with the prices of finished steel products showing a weak and volatile trend. The demand for finished products is clearly weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the futures market are becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material end is more resilient than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost end for the prices of finished products [3]. - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The recent increase in overseas mine shipments may bring pressure, and the strong raw material prices continue to affect the profits of steel mills. The fundamentals of finished products are relatively weak, and the futures market shows that raw materials are stronger than finished products. The impact of production restrictions on iron water production in Tangshan steel mills needs to be observed [6]. - The prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon continue to be weak. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remains unchanged, and its price is expected to remain weak until mid - October. There is no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon, and attention should be paid to changes in downstream terminal demand and relevant policies. Hedging funds are advised to seize hedging opportunities [9][11]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with the supply pressure from resuming production greater than the demand support. The price of polysilicon continues to be in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", with high volatility and possible upward exploration if favorable news is released [14][15]. - The price of glass is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depends on policy support and demand improvement. The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited due to the contradiction between supply and demand [17][18]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 3683 tons in registered warrants and 41530 hands in the main contract positions. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%), with no change in registered warrants and an increase of 22073 hands in the main contract positions [2]. - **Spot Market**: The aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; in Shanghai, it was 3240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3340 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Shanghai, it was 3350 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. The overall steel production is high, demand is insufficient, and steel prices are under great pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Futures Market**: The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 777.00 yuan/ton, up 0.71% (+5.50), with an increase of 12928 hands in positions to 46.59 million hands. The weighted position was 77.35 million hands [5]. - **Spot Market**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 775 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 46.52 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.65% [5]. - **Fundamentals**: Overseas shipments increased, with a slight decline in Australian shipments and a significant increase in Brazilian shipments. The daily average pig iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and steel mill inventory decreased. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased, but inventory accumulation did not slow down significantly [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Futures Market**: On September 3, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 0.21% at 5732 yuan/ton; the main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.14% at 5520 yuan/ton. It is recommended to wait and see for speculative trading [8][9]. - **Market Sentiment and Fundamentals**: The "anti - involution" sentiment in the market declined, and the prices of ferroalloys continued to squeeze out the over - estimated value. The inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to accumulate, and the market was worried about the demand in the peak season. The over - supply pattern of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and its production continued to increase. There was no obvious contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (SI2511) was 8490 yuan/ton, up 0.24% (+20), with a decrease of 6216 hands in weighted positions to 484943 hands [13]. - **Spot Market**: The price of 553 non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of 421 was 9400 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was 460 yuan/ton and 110 yuan/ton respectively [13]. - **Fundamentals**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand problems remained. The supply increased, and the demand from downstream industries was divided. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with a range of 8100 - 9000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Polysilicon** - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract (PS2511) was 52160 yuan/ton, up 0.55% (+285), with an increase of 2757 hands in weighted positions to 320859 hands [14]. - **Spot Market**: The average price of N - type granular silicon was 48.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type dense material was 50 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of N - type re -投料 was 51.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The basis of the main contract was - 660 yuan/ton [15]. - **Fundamentals**: It continued the pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The supply increased, the inventory of silicon wafers decreased, and the spot price increased. The price was expected to be highly volatile, with possible upward exploration if favorable news was released [15]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Spot Market**: The spot price in Shahe was 1130 yuan, unchanged; in Central China, it was 1070 yuan, unchanged. The overall market was stable, and the transaction was average [17]. - **Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million heavy boxes, down 1.63% month - on - month and 11.31% year - on - year, with a decrease of 0.5 days in inventory days [17]. - **Fundamentals**: The production remained high, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream real estate demand did not improve significantly. The price was expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, and its long - term trend depended on policy support and demand improvement [17]. - **Soda Ash** - **Spot Market**: The spot price was 1175 yuan, up 10 yuan from the previous day. The overall price of enterprises fluctuated little, with individual price cuts [18]. - **Inventory**: As of September 1, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8193 million tons, down 2.58% from last Thursday, with a decrease in both light and heavy soda ash inventories [18]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply increased, the inventory pressure decreased, and the downstream glass industry's operating rate changed. The price was expected to be volatile in the short term, and its price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space was limited due to the supply - demand contradiction [18].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Black Metal R & D Report - Ferrous Alloys Daily [2] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Zhou Tao [3] Group 2: Market Information Futures - SF Main Contract: Closing price 5520, daily change -8, weekly change -114, trading volume 111,272, daily change -44,885, open interest 237,691, daily change 758 [4] - SM Main Contract: Closing price 5732, daily change -12, weekly change -100, trading volume 102,788, daily change -48,551, open interest 336,722, daily change 3008 [4] Spot - Silicon Iron: Prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin remained stable on the day, with weekly decreases ranging from 50 to 150 yuan [4] - Manganese Silicon: Prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were flat on the day, with weekly drops from 70 to 150 yuan [4] Basis/Spread - Silicon Iron: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract basis was -170, with a daily increase of 8 and a weekly increase of 44; SF - SM spread was -212, with a daily increase of 4 and a weekly decrease of 14 [4] - Manganese Silicon: Inner Mongolia - Main Contract basis was -52, with a daily increase of 12 and a weekly increase of 30 [4] Raw Materials - Manganese Ore (Tianjin): South African semi - carbonate was 34 yuan/ton degree, unchanged on the day and week; Australian block was 40 yuan/ton degree, daily unchanged and weekly down 0.5 [4] - Lanthanum Coke Small Material: Prices in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable on the day and week [4] Group 3: Market Judgement Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Bottom - side oscillation [7] - Arbitrage: Gradually stop profit on spot - futures positive arbitrage [7] - Options: Sell straddle option combinations on rallies [7] Key Analysis - Silicon Iron: On September 3, spot prices were stable. Supply growth slowed but remained high; demand may face risks from poor steel destocking in September. Short - term supply - demand is stable, with bottom - side oscillation expected [6] - Manganese Silicon: On September 3, manganese ore and manganese silicon spot prices were stable. Supply growth narrowed but production was high; demand may have marginal improvement in September but faces risks from poor steel destocking. Cost is relatively firm, and short - term bottom - side oscillation is expected [6] Group 4: Important Information - On September 3, Tianjin Port's South African semi - carbonate Mn36.6% was quoted at 34 yuan/ton degree, South32 Australian block Mn41% at 39.8 yuan/ton degree, and Gabon block Mn50% at 40 yuan/ton degree [8] - The preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association showed that the retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in China in August were 1.079 million, a year - on - year increase of 5% [9] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes multiple charts such as the trend of ferrous alloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM main contracts, the basis of silicon iron and manganese silicon, and the cost and profit of silicon iron and manganese silicon [15][17][21]

价格 2025/9/3 仓单 现货 盘面 铁合金早报 | 品种 | 项目 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | 硅铁自然块 | 宁夏#72 | 5200 | 0 | -150 | 5500 | 主力合约 | 5528 | -4 | -128 | | | 内蒙#72 | 5250 | 0 | -100 | 5600 | 01合约 | 5488 | -8 | -148 | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5250 | 50 | -100 | 5580 | 05合约 | 5622 | 2 | -142 | | | 陕西#72 | 5200 | 0 | -150 | 5500 | 09合约 | 5352 | 16 | -118 | | | 陕西#75 | 5950 | 50 | 50 | | 主力月基差 | -28 | 4 | -22 | | 硅铁合格块 | 江苏#72 | 5450 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Overseas, concerns about government fiscal conditions have intensified, leading to multi - year high yields on UK and French government bonds, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rebound in the US dollar. The global risk appetite has cooled. In China, the official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. The extension of the 90 - day tariff truce between China and the US and the increased expectation of US monetary easing have reduced short - term external risks and increased domestic risk appetite. The market is focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a marginal increase in short - term macro - upward drivers. [2] - For different assets: the stock index is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised; the black commodity sector is expected to be slightly weaker in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; the non - ferrous sector is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; the energy and chemical sector is expected to rebound in the short term, and cautious observation is recommended; precious metals are expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, and cautious long positions are recommended. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, concerns about government finances have led to high bond yields in the UK and France, a decline in the pound and euro, and a rise in the US dollar. A US federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs and the assessment of Trump's tariff policy have cooled global risk appetite. In China, the August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption. The extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro - upward drivers strengthening. [2] - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as communications, electronics, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market declined slightly. The August official manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was below the boom - bust line. Policy support and reduced external risks have increased domestic risk appetite. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations. Short - term cautious observation is recommended. [3] - **Government Bonds**: Government bonds are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, and cautious observation is advised. [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to be weak on Tuesday, with a slight increase in trading volume. Real - world demand continued to weaken, but there may be a seasonal improvement in September - October. Supply remained high, with the average daily crude steel output of key enterprises in August at 2.115 million tons, a 2% month - on - month increase, and a 4% increase in steel inventories. Although supply may decline temporarily due to production restrictions, steel mills are likely to resume production next week. Coke price increases were blocked and instead decreased. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term. [4] - **Iron Ore**: On Tuesday, the spot price of iron ore rebounded slightly, and the futures price oscillated. Due to production restrictions, steel mills' demand decreased, and they mainly replenished inventory on a just - in - time basis. Last week, the pig iron output was over 2.4 million tons but decreased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume increased by 2.41 million tons to 35.56 million tons this week, and the arrival volume increased by 1.827 million tons. The supply of mainstream Australian powder was stable, but traders were reluctant to sell at low prices. The port inventory decreased slightly by 120,000 tons. Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate in the short term. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Tuesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat. The price of 6517 silicon manganese in the northern market was 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton, and in the southern market was 5,680 - 5,730 yuan/ton. Manganese ore prices were weak. Inner Mongolia's production was stable, with new high - silicon production this month and planned new capacity in October. Ningxia's production was stable, and some southern factories were in losses. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas was 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade was 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon iron profits were compressed, electricity costs provided support, and producers were reluctant to cut production. The market is expected to oscillate in the short term. [7] - **Soda Ash**: On Tuesday, the main soda ash contract oscillated. Last week, the weekly production of soda ash decreased. With new capacity coming online, supply pressure remained, and the oversupply situation persisted, with new installations planned for the fourth quarter. Demand was stable week - on - week, but overall support from downstream demand was weak. Profits decreased week - on - week, and the industry was in a loss. Soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term due to high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. [8] - **Glass**: On Tuesday, the main glass contract oscillated. Last week, glass production was stable, with an increase in the start - up rate and the number of production lines. Terminal real estate demand remained weak, but downstream deep - processing orders increased in mid - August, and overall demand was stable. Profits increased slightly. Glass is expected to oscillate in the short term due to stable supply and limited demand growth. [8] Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: On Tuesday, concerns about the UK economy and rising global bond yields led to a rise in the UK's long - term borrowing costs and a fall in the pound against the US dollar. With the decline of factors such as export rush, over - installation in the photovoltaic industry, and the diminishing marginal effect of the trade - in policy, domestic copper demand will weaken. However, the expected Fed rate cut in September may boost copper prices temporarily. [9] - **Aluminum**: On Tuesday, the closing price of aluminum rose slightly but fell slightly at the end of the session, with a decrease in open interest of 7,398 lots. Aluminum inventory increased to 623,000 tons, exceeding the previous expectation of 600,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 1,450 tons, reaching a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside potential of aluminum prices is limited, but in the short term, there is still a peak - season expectation, and there is no strong downward driver, so it is expected to oscillate. The recent rise in gold prices may have a limited positive impact on copper and aluminum prices. [10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing slowly. Considering cost support, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. [10] - **Tin**: The combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased by 0.21% to 59.43%. Some smelters in Yunnan were under maintenance, and the supply of tin ore was tight in reality but expected to ease. The import of African tin ore decreased in July due to transportation and power issues. Terminal demand was weak, and the inventory decreased by 117 tons to 9,161 tons last week. As prices rose, downstream procurement slowed down. Tin prices are expected to oscillate in the short term, supported by smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations but restricted by high - tariff risks,复产 expectations, and weak demand. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Tuesday, the main lithium carbonate contract 2511 fell 4.3% to a settlement price of 74,180 yuan/ton, with an increase in open interest of 19,567 lots to a total of 761,400 lots. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 75,250 yuan/ton, a 1,750 - yuan decrease. The price of Australian lithium spodumene was 860 US dollars/ton, a 20 - dollar decrease. The production profit of purchasing lithium spodumene was 50 yuan/ton. Lithium carbonate inventory is gradually decreasing, and it is expected to oscillate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook. [11] - **Industrial Silicon**: On Tuesday, the main industrial silicon contract 2511 rose 1.13% to a settlement price of 8,515 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 12,531 lots to 491,200 lots. The price of oxygen - blown 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9,100 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan increase. The futures price was at a discount of 630 yuan/ton. The price difference between 421 and 553 in East China was 300 yuan/ton. With polysilicon prices oscillating at a high level, industrial silicon is expected to oscillate in the short term. [12] - **Polysilicon**: On Tuesday, the main polysilicon contract 2511 rose 3.97% to a settlement price of 51,985 yuan/ton, with a decrease in open interest of 8,457 lots to 318,000 lots. The price of N - type polysilicon was 50,500 yuan/ton, a 1,000 - yuan increase. The price of P - type cauliflower - shaped polysilicon was 30,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of N - type silicon wafers was 1.25 yuan/piece, a 0.01 - yuan increase. The price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) was 0.292 yuan/watt, unchanged. The price of N - type modules (centralized): 182mm was 0.66 yuan/watt, unchanged. The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 6,870, a decrease of 10 lots. Rumors of a "industry restructuring plan" by GCL Technology have increased market expectations of capacity integration. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Technical buying and supply disruptions drove the rebound of crude oil prices, with the largest increase since the end of July. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have affected crude oil supply, and the US will study sanctions on Russia this week. The Cushing inventory is still low. However, attention should be paid to the OPEC+ production decision this Sunday. [14][15] - **Asphalt**: As crude oil prices rise, the asphalt futures price also increases, driven by cost factors in the short term. Currently, asphalt is still weak, with a slightly decreasing basis. The social inventory has not decreased significantly, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. Profits have recovered slightly, and the start - up rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and the follow - up increase of asphalt prices needs to be monitored. [15] - **PX**: Although crude oil prices are rising, the increase in downstream petrochemical products is limited. The low start - up rate of PTA has kept the PX price weak, supported only by maintenance plans. The PX supply is still tight, with the PXN spread decreasing slightly to 251 US dollars and the PX foreign price rebounding to 848 US dollars. It is expected to oscillate in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA installations. [15] - **PTA**: Recently, the start - up rate of PTA has dropped to a seasonal low due to environmental protection requirements and low processing fees. The high basis has weakened, and the processing fee has recovered, indicating a high possibility of supply recovery. The demand growth has slowed down, with a downstream start - up rate of only 89.8%. PTA is expected to oscillate narrowly in the short term, and attention should be paid to the recovery risks of crude oil and downstream demand. [16] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to problems with overseas installations, the import forecast has been low recently, leading to a significant decrease in port inventory to 440,000 tons. The load of syngas - based production units is already high, and there is limited room for further increase. The impact of the petrochemical industry's capacity adjustment on ethylene glycol is relatively limited. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, but attention should be paid to the recovery of downstream start - up rates and crude oil cost fluctuations. [16] - **Short - Fiber**: The price of short - fiber rose with the sector but then declined slightly. The overall strength of the polyester sector is still insufficient. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and the start - up rate of short - fiber has rebounded slightly, with a limited increase in inventory. Further inventory reduction depends on the continuous recovery of terminal orders. In the medium term, short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and may be shorted on rallies. [16] - **Methanol**: The restart of inland installations and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. As the port price falls, the reflux window has opened, providing some support to the spot market. MTO installations are planned to restart, and the traditional downstream peak season is approaching, indicating a marginal improvement in the fundamentals. However, the oversupply situation remains, and high inventory continues to suppress prices. Methanol prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [17] - **PP**: The start - up rate of PP installations has increased, and new capacity has been put into operation, resulting in a record - high weekly supply. The downstream start - up rate has increased slightly, but demand growth is weak. Although there is policy support, the downside is limited. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly. [17] - **LLDPE**: Currently, maintenance has relieved some supply pressure, and downstream demand is gradually increasing, with a decrease in inventory. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. However, as maintenance ends and supply recovers, pressure will increase, and attention should be paid to the synchronous growth of demand. The price is expected to oscillate. [17] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Overnight, the November soybean contract on the CBOT closed at 1,040.00, a decrease of 14.50 or 1.38% (settlement price: 1,041.00). As of August 31, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 65%, lower than the market expectation of 68%. The pod - setting rate was 94%, and the leaf - falling rate was 11%. The weekly export inspection volume of US soybeans as of August 28, 2025, was 472,914 tons, higher than the market expectation. Since the beginning of this crop year, the cumulative export inspection volume has reached 49.763188 million tons, higher than the same period last year. [19] - **Soybean Meal/Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, the increase in imported soybean sales and the high procurement and start - up rate of oilseeds in the third quarter have increased the inventory pressure. The basis is difficult to repair in the short term. The rapeseed meal market is also weak, and attention should be paid to the trade policy between China and Canada. [20] - **Oils**: Overnight, the CBOT soybean oil futures price rose by 1% due to the decline in soybean oil inventory. The BMD palm oil futures price may open higher, supported by strong palm oil exports from Malaysia and a weakening ringgit. According to high - frequency data, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 15.37% (AmSpec) and 30.53% (SGS) in August 2025 compared with the same period last year. Ukraine has imposed a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseeds until January 1, 2030, and the tax rate will decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5%. [20] - **Corn**: New - season corn has started to be harvested in Liaoning, and farmers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The futures market has rebounded recently, which is beneficial to market sentiment. This year, there is no pressure from a large - scale arrival of corn at ports, and the inventory at ports and downstream enterprises is low. The estimated cost of new - season corn in North China is 1,960 - 2,020 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang, it is at least 2,100 yuan/ton. Referring to the policy - supported wheat market, it is expected that during the new - season corn harvest period, farmers will be reluctant to sell when the price in North China is below 2,220 yuan/ton and in the northern ports is below 2,130 yuan/ton, and traders will be more willing to store corn. It is estimated that the opening price of the main C2511 contract may be slightly higher than last year, and if there are no unexpected weather risks during the harvest, the main operating range of the opening - price market may be 2,150 - 2,250 yuan/ton. [21] - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. In August, large - scale farms increased pre

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The recent trading logic is related to the production - restriction news of steel mills in Tangshan before the September 3rd military parade, which leads to a decline in the demand expectation for coke and ferroalloy furnace materials. Also, the previous position - limit on coking coal contracts by the exchange reduces its liquidity, and the hype sentiment of anti - involution fades, causing most commodities to fall from their highs. Ferroalloys follow the price of coking coal and decline. However, the ferroalloy price has dropped to the level at the beginning of the anti - involution proposal, and the possibility of further decline is limited. There is still bottom support, but under the current situation of high operating rates and weak downstream demand, there is pressure on the upside [4]. - Ferroalloy profits have been continuously declining. The current production is at a relatively high level in the same period of the past five years, with weak driving force for further production increase. There is a possibility of production reduction driven by profit decline. With the production restriction of steel mills in some areas before the parade and no obvious improvement in demand, ferroalloy inventory may change from destocking to stockpiling, and there is still pressure on the upside [4]. - The price difference between the main raw materials of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese (semi - coke and manganese ore) is gradually expanding. It is more cost - effective to go long on the price difference between the two silicons, but the price of coal - based products fluctuates greatly. It is advisable to go long on the 01 price difference of the two silicons at - 400 [4]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Ferroalloy Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for ferrosilicon is 5300 - 6000, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 19.97% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 53.6%. For silicomanganese, the price range is also 5300 - 6000, with a current volatility of 15.39% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 27.8% [3]. Ferroalloy Hedging - **Inventory Management**: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory worried about ferroalloy price decline, they can sell SF2511 and SM2601 futures to lock in profits and cover production costs. The hedging ratio is 15%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 6200 - 6250, SM: 6400 - 6500 [3]. - **Procurement Management**: For enterprises with low regular procurement inventory and aiming to purchase according to orders, they can buy SF2511 and SM2601 futures at present to lock in procurement costs in advance. The hedging ratio is 25%, and the recommended entry range is SF: 5100 - 5200, SM: 5300 - 5400 [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The demand for silicon iron in five major steel products is 20,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.48%. The silicon iron warehouse receipts are 99,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.13%, and the total inventory is 162,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.46% [6]. - **Silicon Manganese**: The government's strict control policy on high - energy - consuming industries may lead to industrial structure adjustment and upgrading in the silicon - manganese industry. The demand for silicon manganese in five major steel products is 126,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The enterprise inventory is 149,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.49%, the warehouse receipts are 332,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.05%, and the total inventory is 481,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.88% [7]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - **Silicon Iron**: The ferroalloy supply is at a high level in the same period of the past five years, with great supply pressure. Without improvement in downstream demand, its growth space is limited. The enterprise inventory is 62,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.29% [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: In the long run, the real - estate market is sluggish, the black - related sector declines, and there are doubts about the growth of steel terminal demand. The silicon - manganese demand is relatively weak. The production is 213,400 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.04%, and the enterprise operating rate in China is 47%, a month - on - month increase of 0.63% [7]. Daily Data - **Silicon Iron**: Data such as basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, showing the price changes from September 2, 2025, compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. - **Silicon Manganese**: Similar data including basis, futures spreads, spot prices, and warehouse receipts are provided, along with the price changes of related raw materials [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market is good, but the prices of finished steel products are oscillating. The demand for finished steel products is weak, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weakness of the market is becoming more prominent. If the demand cannot be effectively improved in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material side is more stable than the finished products, and attention should be paid to the potential impact of safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. [3] - The price of iron ore is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term. The impact of production restrictions on Tangshan steel mills on the weekly molten iron output is expected to be significant, and attention should be paid to the recovery of molten iron production after the end of the restrictions. [6] - The prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to be weak. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see. The market is gradually shifting from trading based on expectations to trading based on fundamentals, and the prices of the black sector may continue to be under pressure in the future. [10][11] - The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weak and oscillating in the short term, with the range between 8,100 - 9,000 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon is expected to be highly volatile, and it may continue to rise if there is continuous positive news. [15][16] - The price of glass is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it will fluctuate with the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but its upside space is limited. [18][19] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton (0.064%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3,298 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton (-0.15%) from the previous trading day. [2] - **Market Situation**: The supply of rebar increased, demand improved slightly but remained weak overall, and inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and inventory continued to increase. [3] Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 771.50 yuan/ton, up 0.72% (+5.50), with a position change of - 948 hands to 45.30 million hands. The weighted position was 75.97 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 769 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 45.42 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.56%. [5] - **Market Situation**: Overseas iron ore shipments increased, the daily average molten iron production decreased, the profitability of steel mills continued to decline, port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills decreased. [6] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On September 2, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed up 0.14% at 5,744 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 0.07% at 5,528 yuan/ton. [8] - **Market Situation**: The price of manganese silicon is expected to remain weak before mid - October, and the supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions. For speculative trading, it is recommended to wait and see. [10][12] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8,470 yuan/ton, down 0.29% (-25). The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 51,875 yuan/ton, down 0.78% (-410). [14][15] - **Market Situation**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the price of polysilicon is expected to be highly volatile. [15][16] Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1,130 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises decreased. The spot price of soda ash was 1,165 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers decreased. [18][19] - **Market Situation**: The price of glass is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term, and the price of soda ash is expected to oscillate in the short term and its price center may gradually rise in the long term. [18][19]

仓单 最新 日变化 周变化 出厂价折盘面 日变化 周变化 铁合金早报 现货 盘面 最新 品种 项目 宁夏#72 5200 -50 -100 5500 主力合约 5532 -34 -148 内蒙#72 5250 -50 -50 5600 01合约 5496 -38 -166 青海#72 5200 -50 -150 5530 05合约 5620 -58 -170 陕西#72 5200 -50 -100 5500 09合约 5336 -34 -158 陕西#75 5900 0 0 主力月基差 -32 -16 48 江苏#72 5450 -150 -150 1-5月差 -124 20 4 天津#72 5700 -50 -180 5-9月差 284 -24 -12 天津#72 1055 0 0 9-1月差 -160 4 8 天津#75 1105 0 0 双硅主力价差 -204 22 14 内蒙#6517 5680 -20 -70 5980 主力合约 5736 -56 -162 宁夏#6517 5500 -100 -120 5900 01合约 5736 -56 -162 广西#6517 5700 -50 -80 6190 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 钢铁行业稳增长方案出台，整体利多有限。目前高炉利润较前期有所下降，但仍为正值， | | 螺纹钢 | | 铁水产量仍在较高水平偏稳运行。需求端环比回升，但仍低于产量，库存继续增加，供 | | ★★ | 看空 | 需边际趋于宽松。当前"反内卷"氛围有所消退，政策兑现后存在继续下行风险。 | | 热卷 | | 热卷产量、表需环比小幅下降，库存略增，基本面相对平稳。阅兵期间限产影响有限， | | | 看空 | 供需整体有宽松趋势。钢铁行业稳增长政策落地，利多有限，钢材偏弱基本面下中期存 | | ★★ | | 在回落风险。 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水产量转降，钢厂补库结束，港口累库。外矿发货增到货降，基本面中性偏弱。宏观 | | ★ | 空单持有 | 情绪降温，交易回归基本面，矿价震荡偏弱。 | | | | 焦炭现货开启第一轮提降，钢焦博弈明显。当前受九三阅兵影响，部分地区焦企有限产 | | 焦炭 | 看空 | 政策，供应端边际有所收缩。铁水产量总体高位偏稳运行。当前市场"反内卷"氛围有 | | ★★ | | 所消退，中期存 ...