Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the silicon manganese and silicon ferro markets showed a downward trend due to factors such as loose supply - demand, declining cost support, and weak downstream demand. In 2026, with loose silicon manganese capacity and no significant increase in downstream consumption, its price is expected to be suppressed. For silicon ferro, although supply - demand has a growth trend, the relatively sufficient capacity will lead to intense competition, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1][5]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. 2025 Iron Alloy Market Review - Silicon manganese: In 2025, the price center of silicon manganese gradually moved down. There were price fluctuations due to factors such as manganese ore supply disturbances, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment [16]. - Silicon ferro: In 2025, the price of silicon ferro was affected by black - sector market trends, coal price changes, and "anti - involution" sentiment, showing an overall downward trend with fluctuations [17]. 2. Silicon Manganese: Loose Supply - Demand and Long - term Losses in Production Areas 2.1 Manganese Ore Imports Increase, but Port Manganese Ore Remains at a Low Level - In 2025, from January to October, the total manganese ore imports were 2687000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 235000 tons. The imports from Australia increased by 62000 tons compared with the same period in 2024. However, due to high port clearance volume, the port manganese ore inventory was at a low level for a long time [22]. 2.2 Long - term Losses in Production Areas, Relatively Restrained Silicon Manganese Output - From January to November 2025, production areas suffered long - term losses. The weekly operating rate of silicon manganese was at a low level, and by the end of November, it dropped below 40%. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of silicon manganese alloy was 8.434 million tons, with a slight decline [6][56]. 2.3 Good Profits of Downstream Enterprises, Resilient Demand for Silicon Manganese - In 2025, the steel industry showed a positive trend. From January to October, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills remained above 50% for a long time. The total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 105.32 billion yuan, much higher than the same period last year. The demand for silicon manganese in major steel products remained resilient [61][63]. 2.4 High Inventory of Alloy Enterprises Suppresses Price Increase - By the end of November, the inventory of sample silicon manganese enterprises reached 368000 tons, at a high level in the same period. Although downstream enterprises replenished inventory to some extent, the high inventory of alloy enterprises still put pressure on the price [71]. 3. Silicon Ferro: Output Increases Year - on - Year, Cost Center Moves Down 3.1 Silicon Ferro Price Fluctuates at a Low Level, Alloy Enterprises Suffer Long - term Losses - Affected by loose supply - demand, the silicon ferro price was suppressed. In June, it rebounded slightly with the stabilization of coal prices, and further rose in July due to "anti - involution" sentiment, but then fluctuated downward [10]. 3.2 Resilient Downstream Demand, Slight Increase in Output - From January to October 2025, the total output of silicon ferro was 4.624 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.24%. The demand for downstream products such as metal magnesium and stainless steel was resilient [87]. 3.3 Good Profits of Steel Enterprises, Some Inventory Replenishment by Downstream Silicon Ferro Enterprises - By the end of November, the consumption of silicon ferro in major steel products increased slightly year - on - year. The output of stainless steel crude steel increased by 5.5% year - on - year, and the consumption of silicon ferro also increased. The output of metal magnesium remained stable. By the end of October, the available days of silicon ferro inventory in steel mills were 15.67 days, higher than the same period in 2024 but still at a low level in the past five years [91][99]. 4. Outlook for 2026 - It is estimated that in 2026, overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 2.0%, and production will increase by 1.0%; domestic crude steel consumption will increase by 0.1%, and production will increase by 1.4%. - Silicon manganese: The output is expected to decrease by 0.14%, domestic consumption will decrease by 0.28% (excluding state reserves), and exports will remain at a low level. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. - Silicon ferro: The output is expected to increase by 1.4% year - on - year, domestic consumption will increase by 1.7%, and exports will decrease by 4.5%. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level [103][106][108].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report title: "Anticipating Cost Support, Wait and See - Guoxin Futures Ferroalloy Weekly Report" [2] - Report date: November 30, 2025 [2] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Report Core View - For manganese - silicon, the futures fluctuated last week, the spot price declined slightly, and the basis dropped slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, but the absolute price is low with strong cost support. Due to poor profits of alloy plants, production has been falling. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. - For silicon - iron, the futures were weak last week, the spot price declined slightly, and the basis rebounded slightly. The spot price of thermal coal has weakened, but the year - end electricity price reduction space is limited, providing cost support. Due to poor production profits, silicon - iron production has started to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate upward, depending on energy price changes [46]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Important news**: On November 28, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting; on November 24, the National Development and Reform Commission organized a symposium on cost determination for disorderly price competition; from January to October, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5950.29 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%, and the steel industry turned from loss to profit; this week, the supply of five major steel products was 8.5571 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 58,000 tons (0.7%); the total inventory was 14.0081 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 322,900 tons (2.25%); the weekly consumption was 8.88 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%, with building material consumption down 0.3% and plate consumption up 2.3% week - on - week [5]. - **Manganese - silicon futures and price changes**: The basis of manganese - silicon in different regions showed different year - on - year, monthly, and weekly changes. For example, in Inner Mongolia, the basis was 238, with a year - on - year decrease of 9.54%, a 30 - day decrease of 3.17%, and a one - week decrease of 0.36%. The spot price of Australian 44Mn increased by 0.76% week - on - week, while the South African semi - carbonate decreased by 0.58% week - on - week [9]. - **Silicon - iron futures and basis**: The basis situation of silicon - iron was presented, and the electricity price changes in major production areas were also shown [12][15][17]. 2. Manganese - silicon Industry Chain Overview - **Manganese ore**: Information on manganese ore price, import volume, inventory was presented, but specific numerical summaries were not given in the text [20][24][26]. - **Manganese - silicon profit, production, and demand**: The profit estimation of manganese - silicon was shown. The开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises nationwide was 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04% from last week, and the daily average output was 27,825 tons, a decrease of 305 tons. The demand side was related to steel production [27][46]. 3. Silicon - iron Industry Chain Overview - **Silicon - iron profit and production**: The profit estimation of silicon - iron was presented. The开工率 (capacity utilization rate) of 136 independent silicon - iron enterprises nationwide was 33.41%, a decrease of 0.40% from last week, and the daily average output was 15,320 tons, a decrease of 150 tons (0.97% week - on - week). The demand was related to steel production [37][46]. 4. Summary and Future Outlook - **Manganese - silicon**: Wait and see due to weak supply - demand but strong cost support and falling production [46]. - **Silicon - iron**: Considered to fluctuate upward, relying on energy price changes with cost support at the end of the year [46].

Report on Manganese Silicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The current macro is a more important influencing factor, and the downward momentum of the black sector has significantly weakened after a long - term correction. For manganese silicon, its fundamentals are not ideal, but it is difficult for the price to fall significantly further unless there are macro - risk events or a collapse in coal prices. It is also necessary to pay attention to possible disturbances in the manganese ore sector [15]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level. Manganese silicon's calculated immediate profit remains low, with Inner Mongolia at - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia at - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi at - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week. The calculated immediate cost in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. The weekly output of manganese silicon is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. The calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period [14]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a relatively high level; production profit continues to be in the red; output continues to decline; rebar output remains low while pig iron output remains high; inventory is still at a relatively high level; the tender volume of HeSteel Group has decreased, and the tender price has stabilized month - on - month. The manganese silicon futures price showed weak performance last week, and it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [15]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, Tianjin 6517 manganese silicon spot price is 5630 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week; futures main contract (SM601) closes at 5612 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton week - on - week; basis is 208 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 3.60%, at a relatively high level in historical statistics [20]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of manganese silicon remains low. Inner Mongolia's profit is - 585 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia's is - 682 yuan/ton, unchanged; Guangxi's is - 874 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton week - on - week [25]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated immediate cost of manganese silicon in Inner Mongolia is 6085 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is 6161 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Guangxi is 6404 yuan/ton, unchanged. In October, the manganese ore import volume was 310.01 tons, up 1.53 tons month - on - month and 17.17 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative import was 2687.38 tons, a cumulative increase of 234.58 tons or 9.56% year - on - year. As of November 21, 2025, the manganese ore port inventory decreased to 429.6 tons, up 3.3 tons week - on - week. Among them, the total port inventory of Australian manganese ore is 58.1 tons, up 4.8 tons week - on - week; the total port inventory of high - grade manganese ore is 100.9 tons, up 8.3 tons week - on - week [30][33][36]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 19.48 tons, down 0.21 tons week - on - week, continuing to decline, and the cumulative output is about 0.76% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 91.57 tons, up 1.73 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 1.23 tons or 0.15% lower than the same period last year [44]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and start - up rate data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's manganese silicon tender volume in November 2025 is 16,000 tons, down 500 tons month - on - month and up 3700 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month [55]. - **Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly apparent consumption of manganese silicon from the Steel Union's data is 12.17 tons, up 0.03 tons week - on - week. The weekly output of rebar is 206.08 tons, down 1.88 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 2.60% lower than the same period last year. The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 712 million tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate is 35.06%, down 2.6 pct month - on - month, continuing to decline [58][61][62]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of manganese silicon is 49.29 tons, up 2.34 tons week - on - week, still at a high level in the same period. The inventory of 63 sample enterprises from the Steel Union's data is 36.8 tons, up 0.5 tons week - on - week [70][73]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: In November, the average available days of manganese silicon in steel mills is 15.84 days, up 0.14 days month - on - month. The available days of steel mill inventory have rebounded slightly month - on - month but are still at a relatively low level in the same period [76]. 3.6. Graphical Trend Last week, the manganese silicon futures price fluctuated narrowly at the lower - edge support of the range, with a weekly increase of 2 yuan/ton or 0.04%. At the daily - line level, the price showed a weak trend. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to whether it can be supported at 5600 yuan/ton. If not, the price may fall to 5400 yuan/ton [79]. Report on Ferrosilicon 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market sentiment for commodities has improved, and the positive impact of a series of macro - events in December on market sentiment is still worth expecting. For the black sector, it is more cost - effective to look for positions to do a rebound rather than continue to short. The supply - demand fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is of low cost - effectiveness [95]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Weekly Highlights**: The daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. The calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week - on - week, remaining at a relatively high level in the same period. The spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics. The calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week. The weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year [94]. - **Fundamental Assessment**: The basis is at a low level; production profit continues to be in the red; output decreases slightly; pig iron output remains high, and the demand for metallic magnesium has rebounded; inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period; the steel tender volume and price have decreased month - on - month. Last week, the ferrosilicon futures price continued to decline slowly, with a weekly decrease of 74 yuan/ton or 1.36%. At the daily - line level, the price is oscillating downward along the downward channel since July this year, and it is necessary to pay attention to its performance at the key support level of 5328 yuan/ton [95]. 3.2. Spot - Futures Market As of November 28, 2025, the spot price of Tianjin 72 ferrosilicon is 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week; the futures main contract (SF603) closes at 5390 yuan/ton, down 82 yuan/ton week - on - week; the basis is 10 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton week - on - week, with a basis rate of 0.19%, at a low level in historical statistics [100]. 3.3. Profit and Cost - **Production Profit**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated immediate profit of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia is - 654 yuan/ton, down 83 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Ningxia is - 610 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton week - on - week; in Qinghai is - 747 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton week - on - week [105]. - **Production Cost**: As of November 28, 2025, the power price in the main production areas remains unchanged month - on - month. The calculated production cost in the main production areas: Inner Mongolia is 5774 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Ningxia is 5710 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week; Qinghai is 5898 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton week - on - week. The price of silica in the northwest region is 210 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week, and the price of semi - coke small materials is 850 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week [111][108]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Total Output**: As of November 28, 2025, the weekly output of ferrosilicon from the Steel Union's data is 10.72 tons, down 0.11 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 0.48% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the output was 50.53 tons, up 1.71 tons month - on - month, and the cumulative output from January to October was 5.52 tons or 1.24% higher than the same period last year [116]. - **Main Production Area Output**: The output and proportion data of main production areas such as Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Qinghai are provided, but no specific summary data are given in the text. - **Steel Tendering**: HeSteel Group's 75B ferrosilicon alloy tender volume in November 2025 is 2716 tons, down 240 tons month - on - month and up 1216 tons year - on - year; the tender price is 5680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton month - on - month [122]. - **Steel Consumption**: As of November 28, 2025, the daily average pig iron output is 234.68 tons, down 1.12 tons week - on - week, and the cumulative output is about 3.37% higher than the same period last year. In October 2025, the national crude steel output under the statistical bureau's caliber is 7200 tons, down 150 tons month - on - month and 990 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative crude steel output is 7.12 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 24.9 million tons or 2.98% year - on - year [125]. - **Non - steel Consumption**: From January to October 2025, the cumulative output of metallic magnesium is 70.19 tons, a cumulative decrease of 2.55 tons or 3.51% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the price of metallic magnesium in Fugu area is 16050 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week. From January to October 2025, the cumulative export of ferrosilicon is 33.67 tons, a decrease of 3.1 tons or 8.42% year - on - year. As of November 28, 2025, the calculated export profit of ferrosilicon is - 13 yuan/ton, continuing to decline week - on - week and at a low level in the same period. From January to October 2025, the total overseas crude steel output is 7.13 billion tons, a cumulative decrease of 10,000 tons or 0.01% year - on - year [128][131][132]. 3.5. Inventory - **Explicit Inventory**: As of November 28, 2025, the calculated explicit inventory of ferrosilicon is 12.77 tons, up 0.83 tons week

Report Title - The report is titled "Macro Strategy, Asset Allocation, and Commodity Investment Opportunities - November Issue: Internal Market Exchange Meeting Strategy Sharing" by the Research Institute of Guotou Futures [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the current state of global macro - liquidity, geopolitical and economic - trade situations, and their impacts on financial products and commodities. It suggests that the market is in a state of transition, with a shift from "recovery" and "recession" trading to "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Attention should be paid to the linkage between geopolitical situations and Fed policies, the movement of the Japanese yen, and domestic economic policies [2][5][7] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Previous Market Review and Outlook - **Macro - running features**: In the past month, there has been a recurrence of dollar liquidity, along with geopolitical and economic - trade disturbances. The Fed's pursuit of a stable and strong dollar has brought a de - leveraging effect on global credit expansion. Domestic economic policies have shown limited changes [3][5] - **Asset - running features**: Asset pricing has shifted towards "safe - haven" or "stagflation" trading. Precious metals have squeezed out other risk assets, and the stock market has re - balanced between technology and value sectors [5] 2. Future Outlook (1 - 2 months) - **Key factors to watch**: Geopolitical situation and Fed policy linkage, Japanese yen movement, and domestic policy orientation. Different scenarios of geopolitical cooling or intensification will have different impacts on dollar liquidity and risk assets [7][8][10] 3. Outlook for Financial Products - **Equity indices**: After September, the market has shifted to wide - range oscillations. It is recommended to wait for policy turns on a defensive configuration basis [11] - **Treasury bonds**: The central bank is expected to smooth fluctuations through various means. The yield curve may flatten slightly, but policy and institutional behavior are key variables that may cause adjustments [11][28] 4. Outlook for Commodities - **General situation**: The precious - metal - led market is in a transition to a re - inflation market, but is affected by dollar liquidity. Attention should be paid to geopolitical situations and domestic policy signals [18][19] - **Specific commodities** - **Energy**: Crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply - demand dynamics. Asphalt is under long - term negative pressure, and fuel oil has different supply - demand situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur types. The far - month of the European shipping line is weak [23][30][31] - **Chemicals**: The salt - chemical sector is in a weak situation. Different strategies are recommended for glass, soda ash, caustic soda, PVC, methanol, and urea [24][34][35] - **Non - ferrous metals and precious metals**: At the end of the year, the market shows a strategy of high - low switching. Copper is in high - level oscillations, and precious metals are in a stage of adjustment. The market for lithium carbonate is affected by pre - Spring Festival production arrangements [39][40][41] - **Black commodities**: Steel is likely to continue oscillating at the bottom, iron ore may face increasing downward pressure, coke is expected to be weak, and coking coal is in an oscillating pattern. Ferroalloys are under downward pressure [43][44] - **Agricultural products**: The supply of rapeseed is uncertain, the pig industry is in a capacity - reduction process, and the egg industry's supply pressure is expected to ease [46][47][48] - **Soft commodities**: Different situations exist for rubber, sugar, apples, and logs, with corresponding investment suggestions [49][50]

Report Information - Report Title: Black Supply Weekly Report - Ferroalloys [1] - Date: November 28, 2025 [2] - Research Institute: Zhongtai Futures Research Institute [2] - Analyst: Dong Xueshan [2] - Qualification Number: F3075616 [2] - Trading Consultation Certificate Number: Z0018025 [2] Key Data - Weekly Production Silicomanganese - National Weekly Production: 19.48 million tons, a decrease of 2,135 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 13.26% [3] - Inner Mongolia: 9.77 million tons, an increase of 210 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.71% [3] - Ningxia: 4.34 million tons, a decrease of 1,190 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.20% [3] - Guangxi: 1.07 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 0.44% [3] - Guizhou: 1.49 million tons, an increase of 945 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 16.35% [3] - Yunnan: 0.74 million tons, a decrease of 1,890 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 13.59% [3] - Other Regions: 2.07 million tons, a decrease of 210 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 23.98% [3] Ferrosilicon - National Weekly Production: 10.72 million tons, a decrease of 1,050 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 3.22% [3] - Inner Mongolia: 3.80 million tons, a decrease of 490 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.06% [3] - Ningxia: 2.61 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.44% [3] - Shaanxi: 1.84 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.05% [3] - Qinghai: 1.39 million tons, unchanged from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 12.30% [3] - Gansu: 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 560 tons from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 10.98% [3] - Other Regions: 0.01 million tons, a decrease of 1 ton from the previous week, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.00% [3] Data Notes - Steel Union terminal update date is every Thursday, and the data display date is Friday of the current week [6] - Data Source: Mysteel; compiled by Zhongtai Futures [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The silicon - manganese market shows a situation of weak supply and demand with high inventory. The supply has seen a slight decline recently, and the demand side is affected by the national policy of reducing crude steel production. The market is expected to be in a state of weak supply - demand balance with inventory accumulation. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 5450 - 5750 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro Aspect**: This heating season, the overall energy supply and demand are balanced, and the national unified power plants have sufficient coal storage. South Korea has imposed anti - dumping duties on Chinese steel products. The steel industry has turned from loss to profit from January to October [6]. - **Overseas Aspect**: The US employment market is weak, and the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the December 9 - 10 meeting [6]. - **Supply - Demand Aspect**: Inventory has risen rapidly for 8 consecutive weeks, production has declined slightly from a high level. The port inventory of imported manganese ore has increased by 3.3 tons, and the iron - water production has seasonally declined. The spot profit in Inner Mongolia is - 300 yuan/ton, and in Ningxia is - 415 yuan/ton. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November is 5820 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [6]. - **Technical Aspect**: The weekly K - line of the manganese - silicon main contract is below the 60 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [6]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Leading manganese - based enterprises plan to promote 40% energy - saving and emission - reduction in the industry, but the supply has not decreased significantly. The supply and demand are both weak, and inventory is accumulating. The manganese - silicon main contract is expected to oscillate between 5450 - 5750 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market**: As of November 28, the silicon - manganese futures contract open interest was 741,200 lots, a decrease of 10,000 lots from the previous period. The 5 - 1 contract spread was 54, a decrease of 14 points. The manganese - silicon warehouse receipts were 14,758, a decrease of 5579 from the previous period. The spread between the manganese - silicon and ferrosilicon January contracts was 236, an increase of 72 points [12][16]. - **Spot Market**: As of November 28, the Inner Mongolia silicon - manganese spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton from the previous period. The basis was - 162 yuan/ton, an increase of 24 points [24]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Industry**: The operating rate of 187 independent silicon - manganese enterprises was 38.09%, a decrease of 1.04% from the previous week. The daily average output was 27,825 tons, a decrease of 305 tons. The weekly demand for five major steel types of silicon - manganese was 121,727 tons, an increase of 0.26% from the previous week, and the weekly supply was 194,775 tons, a decrease of 1.08% from the previous week. The inventory of 63 independent silicon - manganese enterprises increased by 5000 tons to 368,000 tons [27][33]. - **Upstream**: The electricity price and manganese ore price remained unchanged. As of November 21, the total manganese ore inventory was 4.296 million tons, an increase of 0.77%. The arrival of manganese ore from South Africa, Australia, and Gabon increased, while that from Ghana decreased to 0. The silicon - manganese spot profit remained in a loss state [39][45][48]. - **Downstream**: The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The final price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group's silicon - manganese in November was 5800 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month [54].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views - The overall finished steel is supported by raw material costs at the bottom, but the upward drive is suppressed by inventory. It is expected to fluctuate within a certain range. The operating range of rebar may be between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and that of hot-rolled coil may be between 3,100 - 3,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the destocking speed and downstream consumption. The risk lies in the possible negative feedback caused by the decline in the profit rate of steel enterprises [3] - Recently, iron ore prices have been running strongly, and the short - term trend is dominated by coking coal. The weakening of coking coal prices due to domestic supply - guarantee and price - stabilization policies and the resumption of Mongolian coal shipments provides support for iron ore prices by repairing steel mill profits. The short - term fundamentals of iron ore are balanced, with high - level fluctuations in shipments and stable hot metal production. The structural shortage of medium - grade ore resources leads to tight deliverable resources, strong spot prices, and a widening basis. Macroeconomically, the expectation of a US interest rate cut has been revised, increasing the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a stock market rebound and a recovery in market risk appetite [22] - The main coking coal contract has been continuously hitting new lows recently, and the support at the lower edge of the shock range is being tested. If it is broken, the wide - range shock pattern that has lasted for a quarter may end. The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are weakening. The domestic mine production is stable. The import of Mongolian coal is at a high level, and seaborne coal also has a price advantage, resulting in a marginal relaxation of the overall coking coal supply. On the demand side, due to the high spot price and the increasing expectation of coke price cuts, downstream procurement is cautious, leading to a marginal accumulation of upstream mine inventory. In the short term, the spot price will still be under pressure. In the medium - term, the bottom support for coking coal is relatively clear. On the one hand, there is still a rigid demand for winter storage, and price corrections will stimulate restocking demand. On the other hand, the macro - policy expectations in the first year of the "14th Five - Year Plan" and the "anti - deflation" policy will build a bottom support for far - month contracts [31] - Ferroalloys are facing the fundamentals of high inventory and weak demand. With the impact of supply - guarantee policies on coking coal prices, the cost center may shift downwards. However, the supply side maintains a trend of production cuts, so the downward space for ferroalloys is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [47] - Soda ash is mainly priced based on cost. Although the cost - side expectation is solid, the valuation lacks upward elasticity without a trend - like production cut. The medium - and long - term supply of soda ash is expected to remain high. Photovoltaic glass has started to accumulate inventory at a low level, with relatively stable daily melting. The balance of heavy soda ash remains in surplus. In October, soda ash exports exceeded 210,000 tons, remaining at a high level, which continues to relieve domestic pressure to some extent. The high inventory of the upstream and mid - stream restricts the price of soda ash [60] - Unexpected cold repairs of glass production lines have begun to increase, and the expectation of cold repairs in December has resurfaced, but the implementation is to be determined, which will definitely affect the pricing and expectation of far - month contracts. However, the near - month 01 contract will still follow the reality (delivery logic), and the key is whether there is still an expectation of price cuts in Hubei. In reality, the glass spot market is weak, with continuous price cuts in Hubei and Shahe, and the inventory of futures, cash, and traders in Shahe and Hubei remains high. With the arrival of the off - season, the spot market is under great pressure and is prone to negative feedback. Currently, the position of the glass 01 contract is at a high level, and the game may continue until near the delivery [84] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 3,110 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 3,117 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,154 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The hot - rolled coil 01 contract closed at 3,302 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; the 05 contract was 3,288 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan; the 10 contract was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. The rebar 01 - 05 spread was - 7 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan from the previous day; the hot - rolled coil 01 - 05 spread was 14 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [4] - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The rebar summary price in China on November 28, 2025, was 3,291 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day. The 01 rebar basis in Shanghai was 140 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan. The hot - rolled coil summary price in Shanghai was 3,290 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The 01 hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai was - 12 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan [9][11] - **Other Ratios**: The 01 rebar/01 iron ore ratio was 4 on November 28, 2025, unchanged from the previous day; the 01 rebar/01 coke ratio was 2, also unchanged [19] Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the iron ore 01 contract was 794 yuan/ton, down 5.5 yuan from the previous day; the 05 contract was 768 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the 09 contract was 743.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan. The 01 basis was - 0.5 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan [23] - **Fundamental Data**: The daily average hot metal production on November 28, 2025, was 234.68 thousand tons, down 1.6 thousand tons from the previous week. The 45 - port desilting volume was 3.3058 million tons, up 0.66 million tons from the previous week. The global shipment volume was 3.2784 billion tons, down 238 million tons from the previous week [26] Coking Coal and Coke - **Futures Spreads and Ratios**: On November 28, 2025, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was 154 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan from the previous day; the coke 09 - 01 spread was 223 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The盘面 coking profit was - 50 yuan/ton, down 20.422 yuan from the previous day [35] - **Spot Prices and Profits**: The ex - factory price of Anze low - sulfur main coking coal on November 28, 2025, was 1,580 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan from the previous week. The spot price of Jinzhong quasi - first - grade wet coke was 1,480 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week. The immediate coking profit was 38 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [36] Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon iron basis in Ningxia was 60 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan from the previous day. The silicon iron 01 - 05 spread was 36 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan [48] - **Silicon Manganese**: On November 27, 2025, the silicon manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 224 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day. The silicon manganese 01 - 05 spread was - 50 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [49] Soda Ash - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the soda ash 05 contract was 1,235 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,303 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,177 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 68 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [61] - **Spot Prices and Spreads**: The heavy soda ash market price in North China on November 28, 2025, was 1,300 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The difference between heavy and light soda ash in North China was 50 yuan/ton, unchanged [61] Glass - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On November 28, 2025, the closing price of the glass 05 contract was 1,170 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan from the previous day; the 09 contract was 1,223 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 contract was 1,053 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [85] - **Daily Sales Data**: On November 27, 2025, the sales rate in Shahe was 229, in Hubei was 174, in East China was 110, and in South China was 103 [86]

价格 铁合金早报 | | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/28 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 项目 | | 现货 | | 仓单 | | 盘面 | | | | | | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 出厂价折盘面 | 最新 | | 日变化 | 周变化 | | | 宁夏#72 内蒙#72 | 5100 5120 | 0 0 | -50 -80 | 5400 5470 | 主力合约 01合约 | 5390 5380 | -26 -12 | -56 -30 | | 硅铁自然块 | | | | | | | | | | | 产区汇总价 | 青海#72 | 5150 | 0 | -50 | 5480 | 05合约 | 5344 | -32 | -56 | | | 陕西#72 | 5080 | 0 | -50 | 5380 | 09合约 | 5430 | -38 | -66 | | | 陕西#75 | 5700 | 0 | 0 | | 主力月基差 | 10 | 26 | 6 | | 硅铁合格块 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel demand has officially entered the off - season. The price of steel products is likely to continue the weak shock in the short term, but with the implementation of policies and the improvement of the macro - environment, the steel demand is expected to have a marginal inflection point later [2]. - The iron ore price is expected to run within the shock range. If the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline periodically within the range [5]. - The ferroalloy price has declined significantly, but there is still hope for the positive impact of macro - events in December on the market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment [9]. - For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to do rebounds rather than continue to short [10]. - The industrial silicon price is expected to run in shock in the short term, paying attention to periodic emotional disturbances [14]. - The polysilicon price fluctuates widely within the range, and the focus is on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain [16]. - The glass price is expected to continue the shock trend at the bottom, and the space for further decline is limited [19]. - The soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation before the glass demand improves substantially [21]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Information - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3093 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 37919 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.069617 million lots, a decrease of 131083 lots month - on - month. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month [1]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3293 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (- 0.33%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 113732 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0 tons. The position of the main contract was 0.876319 million lots, a decrease of 58870 lots month - on - month. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton month - on - month; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3290 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month [1]. Strategy Viewpoint - The supply and demand of rebar have both declined, and the inventory has been continuously depleted, showing a neutral overall performance. The output of hot - rolled coils has increased, the apparent demand has slightly declined, and the inventory has only been slightly depleted. South Korea's new anti - dumping tax policy will have a certain impact on steel exports. Overall, the steel demand has entered the off - season, and the inventory pressure of hot - rolled coils still exists. It is necessary to pay attention to the actual progress of the production reduction rhythm [2]. Iron Ore Market Information - The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 799.50 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.31% (+ 2.50). The position changed by - 5496 lots to 414300 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 934200 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 799 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 49.48 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.83% [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - In terms of supply, the overseas iron ore shipping volume has decreased month - on - month. In the shipping end, the shipping volumes of Australia and Brazil have both decreased. The shipping volumes of the four major mines have all decreased month - on - month. The shipping volume of non - mainstream countries has increased to the highest level of the year, and the near - end arrival volume has increased month - on - month. In terms of demand, the daily average molten iron output was 2.3468 million tons, a decrease of 16000 tons month - on - month. Due to the weakening of demand and the decline of profits, the number of blast furnaces under maintenance has increased significantly, and the number of blast furnaces that can be restarted in a short time is low. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of the past three years, and the proportion of profitable steel mills is 35%. In the inventory end, the port inventory has increased month - on - month, and the steel mill inventory has been slightly consumed. Overall, the iron ore inventory is still high, but there are still structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. The iron ore price is expected to run within the shock range, and if the molten iron output continues to decline, the ore price may decline periodically [5]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon Market Information - On November 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) closed down 0.07% at 5626 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5630 yuan/ton, converted to the disk price of 5820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton month - on - month, with a premium of 192 yuan/ton over the disk. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF603) closed down 0.48% at 5390 yuan/ton. In the spot market, the spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5400 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, with a premium of 10 yuan/ton over the disk [7][8]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the past week, the market risk appetite has weakened comprehensively. The ferroalloy price has declined significantly, but with the change of market expectations and the possible end of the decline of coking coal prices, although the pressure of price decline still exists, there is hope for the positive impact of macro - events in December on the market sentiment. It is recommended to pay attention to the inflection point of market sentiment and the corresponding price inflection point, and pay attention to overseas emotional fluctuations. For the black sector, it may be more cost - effective to look for positions to do rebounds. The fundamentals of manganese silicon are not ideal, and attention should be paid to the situation of manganese ore. The fundamentals of ferrosilicon have no obvious contradictions and drivers, and the operability is relatively low [9][10]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2601) was 9115 yuan/ton, with a change of + 1.05% (+ 95). The weighted contract position changed by - 23518 lots to 409946 lots. In the spot market, the market price of non - oxygen - passing 553 in East China was 9350 yuan/ton, with no change month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was 235 yuan/ton; the market price of 421 was 9800 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was - 115 yuan/ton after converting to the disk price [12]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The industrial silicon price rebounded slightly in the short term, and the support below was acceptable. The weekly output of industrial silicon continued the downward trend, and the supply continued to shrink. The weekly output of polysilicon declined, and the maintenance of some enterprise bases was carried out smoothly. The organic silicon raised the spot price after the industry joint price - support meeting, but the output did not reach the expected reduction amplitude. The net export in October decreased significantly. The cost - end factors provided support for the industrial silicon disk. Overall, the current situation of industrial silicon has not changed significantly, and the price is expected to run in shock in the short term, paying attention to periodic emotional disturbances [13][14]. Polysilicon - Market Information: The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2601) was 55235 yuan/ton, with a change of - 1.18% (- 660). The weighted contract position changed by + 866 lots to 255238 lots. In the spot market, the average price of N - type granular silicon was 50.5 yuan/kg, with no change month - on - month; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, with no change month - on - month; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.3 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.05 yuan/kg month - on - month, and the basis of the main contract was - 2935 yuan/ton [15]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Polysilicon is still in a tug - of - war between reality and expectation. The production schedule in November has decreased, and the weekly output data has gradually declined, and the production reduction expectation has been fulfilled. The downstream silicon wafer output is expected to decline month - on - month compared with October. In the future, the supply - demand pattern of polysilicon may improve marginally under the large - scale reduction of supply, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is expected to be limited. The prices of silicon wafers and battery cells have loosened, and the price pressure still exists under the weak demand. The upstream silicon material quotation is relatively firm, facing the price feedback pressure from the downstream. Under the weak reality background, the expectation of storage and the establishment of the platform company continue to tug at the disk, and the disk price is easy to fall or rise rapidly under the news disturbance. The focus in the future is still on the progress of the platform company and the price feedback of the industrial chain. In addition, the spread between near - and far - month contracts has intensified, and attention should be paid to the unstable risk caused by the rapid conversion of capital sentiment [16]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Market Information: On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of glass closed at 1041 yuan/ton, up 0.39% (+ 4) on the day. The quotation of large plates in North China was 1070 yuan, with no change from the previous day; the quotation in Central China was 1080 yuan, with no change from the previous day. The weekly inventory of float glass sample enterprises was 62.362 million boxes, a decrease of 0.941 million boxes (- 1.49%) month - on - month. The top 20 holders of long orders reduced their long positions by 70889 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders reduced their short positions by 59259 lots today [18]. - Strategy Viewpoint: The expectation of cold repair of glass production lines in December has increased, and the supply is expected to shrink to a certain extent. The downstream processing orders are insufficient, and enterprises mostly purchase on demand, resulting in a lack of strong support for prices. With the decline of soda ash prices, the market's expectation of glass prices has further weakened. Overall, the current glass valuation is at a relatively low level, and the glass price is expected to continue the shock trend at the bottom, and the space for further decline is limited [19]. Soda Ash - Market Information: On Thursday afternoon at 15:00, the main contract of soda ash closed at 1176 yuan/ton, up 0.09% (+ 1) on the day. The quotation of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1146 yuan, an increase of 1 yuan from the previous day. The weekly inventory of soda ash sample enterprises was 1.5874 million tons, a decrease of 57000 tons (- 1.49%) month - on - month. Among them, the inventory of heavy soda ash was 0.8468 million tons, a decrease of 40500 tons month - on - month, and the inventory of light soda ash was 0.7406 million tons, a decrease of 16500 tons month - on - month. The top 20 holders of long orders reduced their long positions by 8830 lots today, and the top 20 holders of short orders reduced their short positions by 9343 lots today [20]. - Strategy Viewpoint: Last week, some devices were under maintenance, driving the industry's operating rate to decline slightly, but it failed to reverse the market's oversupply situation. The demand shows differentiation. The demand for light soda ash is stable, and the tight local supply has pushed up the quotation. The demand for heavy soda ash is still weak, and the orders of glass factories in Shahe area are insufficient, and the price has been under pressure to decline several times this week. Although the rising coal price at the cost end provides certain support for soda ash, the high inventory and weak demand always constitute the main negative driving force. Before the glass demand improves substantially, the soda ash is expected to maintain a weak operation [21].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The steel market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Prices are supported at the 3000 low but the upside is limited due to weak demand. Steel production is likely to decline gradually as the industry awaits the implementation of the production cut logic [2]. - The prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. With steel prices under pressure, demand for these alloys is weakening, and the supply - demand surplus will continue to weigh on prices [3][5]. - For coking coal and coke, the current decline may be nearing its end from a valuation perspective. However, the market may need to wait for a while from a driving force perspective, and the next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - The fundamentals of iron ore remain weak with clear upward pressure. Inventory is expected to continue to accumulate due to reduced steel production, and the operation strategy is to sell on rallies [7]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts RB2605 and HC2605 were 3105.00 yuan/ton and 3281.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.38% and 0.33%. The closing prices of near - month contracts RB2601 and HC2601 were 3093.00 yuan/ton and 3293.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.13% and 0.27% [1]. - The price is in a narrow - range oscillation. There is an impulse to rebound, but the upside is limited due to weak demand. The industry contradiction is not prominent, and the price is likely to remain within the range. The production cut logic needs time to be realized [2]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with an interval oscillation mindset; consider participating in spot - futures positive arbitrage for hot - rolled coils or use option strategies to assist spot sales [8]. Silicon - iron and Manganese - silicon - The prices are oscillating with insufficient driving forces. The macro - policy has expected benefits but is unconfirmed. The direct demand has weakened significantly, and the weekly apparent demand has dropped to the lowest point of the year. The supply - demand surplus persists, and prices will be under pressure [3][5]. - Investment strategy: Investment clients can short on rallies, and industrial clients can use put - writing options to protect their spot exposure [8]. Coking Coal and Coke - On November 27, the closing prices of far - month contracts J2605 and JM2605 were 1751.00 yuan/ton and 1165.00 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of 0.43% and 0.21%. The closing prices of near - month contracts J2601 and JM2601 were 1607.00 yuan/ton and 1071.00 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - The spot market sentiment is weakening, with coke having a price cut expectation and most coking coal spot auctions falling. From a valuation perspective, the decline is approaching the end, but the market may need to wait for a while. The next round of downstream restocking may start around mid - December [6]. - Investment strategy: Treat the single - side with a short - term mindset for now, wait and see for the medium - and long - term, and liquidate hedging short positions [8]. Iron Ore - The short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipment is not greatly affected. With the decline of molten iron and steel production, the inventory will continue to accumulate. Although the price has rebounded at the bottom of the range, it is difficult to break through the range due to inventory pressure [7]. - Investment strategy: Hold short positions [8].