Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the fluctuations in industrial products, highlighting the recent changes in CPI and PPI, and the impact of supply chain issues on key commodities like lithium carbonate and rubber [1][5]. Group 1: Economic Indicators - In July, the CPI increased by 0.4% month-on-month, reversing a previous decline, while the core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking three consecutive months of growth [1][5]. - The PPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month, with a year-on-year decline of 3.6%, indicating a narrowing of the decline compared to the previous month [1][5]. Group 2: Key Commodities Lithium Carbonate - Supply disruptions due to mining permit delays and temporary shutdowns at major mines are expected to cause significant volatility in lithium carbonate prices [2][19]. - Chile's lithium salt exports are projected to reach 28,800 tons LCE by July 2025, a 40% increase month-on-month and a 22% increase year-on-year, with lithium carbonate exports accounting for 73% of this total [2][19]. - Social inventory of lithium carbonate has decreased for the first time since late May, but still stands at approximately 142,000 tons [2][19]. Rubber - Improved weather conditions in production areas have put downward pressure on raw rubber prices, with demand remaining weak due to the off-season for terminal consumption [2][14]. - The market is closely monitoring the progress of US-China trade negotiations, as this could impact rubber prices [2][14]. Coking Coal and Coke - The coking coal and coke markets are experiencing a stable trading environment, with minor fluctuations in trading volumes and prices [3][20]. - The supply of coking coal has decreased slightly, while iron water production remains stable, indicating limited fundamental contradictions in the market [3][20]. Group 3: Industry News - The top 100 real estate companies in China have invested a total of 578.3 billion yuan in land acquisition from January to July, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.3% [6]. - The article suggests that the investment confidence among these companies has been effectively restored, with ongoing government support for real estate policies [6]. Group 4: External Market Performance - The article provides a summary of external market performance, including the S&P 500 and other indices, indicating a mixed performance in global markets [8]. - The dollar index showed a slight increase, while oil prices experienced a minor decline, reflecting ongoing geopolitical tensions and market adjustments [8][11]. Group 5: Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - The article notes that soybean meal prices are under pressure due to concerns over supply and demand dynamics, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations [21]. Oilseeds - Oilseed prices are experiencing fluctuations, with palm oil facing limited pressure due to low inventory levels in Indonesia, despite a recovery in production [22]. Group 6: Shipping Index - The article highlights the recent performance of the European shipping index, which has shown a slight increase, but overall rates are expected to decline as the market adjusts to seasonal trends [23].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. Group 2: Core View of the Report - No relevant content provided. Group 3: Summary of Spot Market - Newman powder's latest price is 767, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 4; its import profit is -31.77 [1] - PB powder's latest price is 770, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -11.03 [1] - Macfie powder's latest price is 760, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -2.67 [1] - Jinbuba powder's latest price is 742, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -3.08 [1] - Mainstream mixed powder's latest price is 697, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -12.10 [1] - Super special powder's latest price is 647, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -15.13 [1] - Carajás powder's latest price is 873, with a daily change of -7 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -48.05 [1] - Brazilian mixed powder's latest price is 809, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 19; its import profit is -3.21 [1] - Brazilian coarse IOC6's latest price is 760, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Brazilian coarse SSFG's latest price is 765, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Ukrainian concentrate's latest price is 865, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 9 [1] - 61% Indian powder's latest price is 731, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Karara concentrate's latest price is 865, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 10 [1] - Roy Hill powder's latest price is 740, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2; its import profit is -5.37 [1] - KUMBA powder's latest price is 830, with a daily change of -3 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - 57% Indian powder's latest price is 592, with a daily change of -1 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Atlas powder's latest price is 692, with a daily change of -2 and a weekly change of 2 [1] - Tangshan iron concentrate's latest price is 958, with a daily change of 0 and a weekly change of 31 [1] Group 4: Summary of Futures Market - i2601's latest price is 773.5, with a daily change of -1.0 and a weekly change of 16.5; its monthly spread is 16.5, with a daily change of -2.3 and a weekly change of -4.7 [1] - i2605's latest price is 753.0, with a daily change of 0.5 and a weekly change of 19.5; its monthly spread is 20.5, with a daily change of -3.8 and a weekly change of -7.7 [1] - i2509's latest price is 790.0, with a daily change of -3.0 and a weekly change of 7.0; its monthly spread is -37.0, with a daily change of -0.3 and a weekly change of 4.8 [1] - FE01's latest price is 102.06, with a daily change of 0.15 and a weekly change of 3.17; its monthly spread is 0.19, with a daily change of -3.9 and a weekly change of -2.5 [1] - FE05's latest price is 100.04, with a daily change of 0.18 and a weekly change of 3.13; its monthly spread is 2.02, with a daily change of -3.1 and a weekly change of -2.8 [1] - FE09's latest price is 102.25, with a daily change of 0.45 and a weekly change of 2.49; its monthly spread is -2.21, with a daily change of -4.8 and a weekly change of -4.0 [1]

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report: Demand Resilience Remains, Iron Ore Ranges Sideways" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The current overseas mines are in the shipping off - season, and the demand side has strong resilience, which supports the iron ore price. It is expected that the iron ore price will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [4] Summary by Directory 1. Supply - **Global Shipping Volume**: From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 139,100 tons week - on - week to 3.0618 million tons. The shipping volume from non - mainstream regions increased by 74,800 tons week - on - week to 597,900 tons [4][50] - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.7212 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 72,300 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 742,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 141,600 tons [4][47] - **Arrival Volume in China**: From July 28 to August 3, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 267,300 tons week - on - week to 2.5078 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.2531 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,800 tons [4][59] - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of August 8, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 62.06%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.36%; the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 39,160 tons per day, a decrease of 2,200 tons from the previous week [75] 2. Demand - **Steel Mill Indicators**: As of August 8, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 68.4%, a week - on - week increase of 3.03%; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.75%, a week - on - week increase of 0.29%; the daily average hot metal output decreased by 3,900 tons week - on - week to 240,320 tons, but the demand resilience remained [4][78][95] - **Transaction Volume**: The daily average trading volume of iron ore forward spot and the total trading volume at major Chinese ports are presented in the report, but specific data trends are not described in detail [80] - **Steel Product Output and Consumption**: The output and consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils are shown in the report, but specific data trends are not described in detail [83][85] 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of August 8, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 13.71227 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 54,370 tons. The inventory of Australian ore was 6.1381 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 141,250 tons; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 4.87207 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons [4][25][29] - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The steel mill's imported iron ore inventory was 9.01334 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1,250 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 20 days, a decrease of 1 day from the previous week [4][43] 4. Strategy - Go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract on dips, with a reference support level of 750 yuan/ton [4]

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model 1: Commodity Term Structure Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures the state of commodity contango and backwardation using the roll yield factor, dynamically going long on commodities with high roll yields and short on those with low roll yields[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify the roll yield for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their roll yields - Go long on commodities with the highest roll yields and short on those with the lowest roll yields - **Evaluation**: The model has shown good performance recently, particularly in the industrial metals and agricultural products sectors[23][24] Model 2: Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures medium to long-term trends in domestic commodities using multiple technical indicators, dynamically going long on assets with upward trends and short on those with downward trends[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Use technical indicators to identify trends in commodity prices - Rank commodities based on their trend strength - Go long on commodities with the strongest upward trends and short on those with the strongest downward trends - **Evaluation**: The model has underperformed recently, with significant losses in the black and energy chemical sectors[33][35] Model 3: Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Construction Idea**: This model captures changes in the domestic commodity fundamentals using the inventory factor, dynamically going long on assets with decreasing inventories and short on those with increasing inventories[23][24] - **Construction Process**: - Identify inventory levels for each commodity - Rank commodities based on their inventory changes - Go long on commodities with the largest inventory decreases and short on those with the largest inventory increases - **Evaluation**: The model has shown mixed performance, with significant losses in the agricultural products sector[39][41] Model Backtesting Results Commodity Term Structure Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: 1.69%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.09%[28] - **Top Contributors**: Glass (1.27%), PVC (0.32%), Rubber (0.31%)[30] - **Top Detractors**: Sugar (-0.16%), PTA (-0.24%), Methanol (-0.25%)[30] Commodity Time Series Momentum Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -1.22%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: -3.17%[33] - **Top Contributors**: Soybean Oil (0.26%), LPG (0.16%), Soybean Meal (0.07%)[37] - **Top Detractors**: Rebar (-0.28%), Soda Ash (-0.30%), Cotton (-0.33%)[37] Commodity Cross-Sectional Inventory Model - **Recent Two-Week Return**: -0.56%[26] - **Year-to-Date Return**: 3.42%[39] - **Top Contributors**: Corn (0.54%), Polypropylene (0.27%), Nickel (0.22%)[43] - **Top Detractors**: PVC (-0.26%), Cotton (-0.39%), Soybean Oil (-0.46%)[43]

铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年8月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：碳元素再度吸收钢铁链利润，矿价窄幅震荡 | | 最近一周切片数据 条目 | 当周值 | 环比 | 同比 | | YTD累计发运数据 31W2025 | 31W2024 | 累计同比 | 累计同比% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 全球发货量 澳发货量 | 3061.8 1721.2 | -139.1 -72.3 | -7.2 -89.0 | 全球发货 | 93740.7 | 93365.8 | 374.9 | 0.4% | | | | | | | 澳发货 | 54562.6 | 55061.7 | -499.1 | -0.9% | | | 巴发货量 | 742.7 | -141.6 | 17.0 | 巴发货 | 22390.5 | 22433.5 | - ...

Group 1 - The Albanese government unexpectedly approved Chinese investment in Australian lithium producer Liontown Resources, marking a shift in its previous stance against foreign investment in critical mineral projects [1][3] - Canmax Technologies, a Chinese battery mineral supplier, will acquire nearly 2% of Liontown for approximately AUD 50 million, while the National Reconstruction Fund Corporation also invested AUD 50 million in the same company [1][3] - The approval of Canmax's investment indicates a softening of the government's previous informal ban on Chinese investments in key mineral projects, which had been in place for most of Albanese's term [1][3] Group 2 - Liontown's spokesperson emphasized the strategic value of a diversified investor base, stating that the financing plan could attract various international investors [3] - The investment from Canmax is part of Liontown's AUD 266 million financing plan aimed at improving its balance sheet [1][3] - The Australian government plans to support critical mineral producers, particularly in rare earth projects, to reduce Beijing's dominance in the supply chain [3][5] Group 3 - China is the largest producer of most critical minerals, which are essential for global energy transition and military equipment manufacturing [4] - Fortescue, an iron ore exporter, announced it secured a loan of 3 billion RMB from several Chinese banks, marking the first time an Australian company has obtained a RMB-denominated syndicated loan [7][8] - The fixed interest rate for Fortescue's loan is 3.8%, the lowest cost of debt in the company's history, indicating a strong alignment with Chinese partners [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In July, the "anti-involution" sentiment drove the overall sentiment of commodities. The supply and demand of iron ore were relatively good, and the price rose under the influence of sentiment. After the sentiment subsided, the price fluctuated. In August, the supply is expected to recover to some extent as July was the traditional off-season for overseas mines' shipments, and the near-term arrivals may increase. The daily average hot metal output is expected to remain at a relatively high level, but the weakening demand of the downstream terminal needs attention. The port inventory is expected to rise slightly. Overall, the focus of the black sector remains on coking coal, and the iron ore fundamentals do not show obvious contradictions, with the price expected to fluctuate. Attention should also be paid to the possible impact of the production restriction expectations in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region before the "September 3rd Parade" [13][14]. Summary by Directory 1. Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: The weekly average of global iron ore shipments in July was 30.73 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.5885 million tons. The weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons [13]. - **Demand**: The domestic daily average hot metal output in July was 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month [13]. - **Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The inventory of imported iron ore at steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [13]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Price Spreads**: At the end of July, the PB - Super Special powder spread was 126 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 18 yuan/ton. The Carajás - PB powder spread was 104 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 7 yuan/ton. The Carajás - Jinbuba powder spread was 146 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 14 yuan/ton. The ((Carajás + Super Special powder)/2 - PB powder) spread was -11 yuan/ton, a month-on-month decrease of 5.5 yuan/ton [19][22]. - **Feeding Ratio and Scrap Steel**: At the end of July, the pellet feeding ratio was 15.22%, an increase of 0.83 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The lump ore feeding ratio was 12.23%, an increase of 0.35 percentage points. The sinter feeding ratio was 72.55%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points. The price of scrap steel in Tangshan was 2265 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from the end of the previous month, and in Zhangjiagang was 2150 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton [25]. - **Profit**: At the end of July, the steel mill profitability rate was 63.64%, an increase of 4.33 percentage points from the end of the previous month [28]. 3. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports was 136.8623 million tons, a decrease of 2.44 million tons from the end of the previous month. The pellet inventory was 3.9029 million tons, a decrease of 0.9653 million tons. The iron concentrate inventory was 10.815 million tons, a decrease of 1.0125 million tons. The lump ore inventory was 16.825 million tons, an increase of 1.7881 million tons. The Australian ore inventory was 61.9325 million tons, an increase of 0.9517 million tons. The Brazilian ore inventory was 47.786 million tons, a decrease of 1.442 million tons [35][38][41]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: At the end of July, the inventory of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 88.8522 million tons, an increase of 0.3775 million tons from the end of the previous month [43]. 4. Supply Side - **Overseas Shipments**: In July, the weekly average of Australia's shipments to China was 14.1845 million tons, a decrease of 3.3958 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of Brazil's shipments was 8.1408 million tons, a decrease of 0.2047 million tons. The weekly average of Rio Tinto's shipments was 5.788 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.771 million tons. The weekly average of BHP's shipments was 5.4773 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9315 million tons. The weekly average of Vale's shipments was 6.1115 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.0575 million tons. The weekly average of FMG's shipments was 3.5103 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.9163 million tons [49][52][55]. - **Arrivals and Imports**: The weekly average of arrivals at 45 ports in July was 24.3943 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.4045 million tons. In June, China's non-Australian and non-Brazilian iron ore imports were 15.4151 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.6103 million tons [58]. - **Domestic Mines**: At the end of July, the capacity utilization rate of domestic mines was 61.51%, a decrease of 1.45 percentage points from the end of the previous month. The daily average output of iron concentrate from domestic mines was 480300 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons from the end of the previous month [61]. 5. Demand Side - **Hot Metal Production**: The domestic hot metal output in July was 74.79 million tons, with a daily average of 2.4126 million tons, a decrease of 0.0054 million tons from the previous month. At the end of July, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 90.81%, a decrease of 0.02 percentage points from the end of the previous month [66]. - **Ore Removal and Consumption**: In July, the weekly average of the daily ore removal volume at 45 ports was 3.1917 million tons, an increase of 0.0549 million tons from the previous month. The weekly average of the daily consumption of imported iron ore at 247 steel mills was 3.0041 million tons, a decrease of 0.0038 million tons from the previous month [69]. 6. Basis - As of July 31, the basis of the iron ore IOC6 main contract was 50.07 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 6.04% [74].

二、基本面汇总 根据海关总署数据，中国7月份铁矿石进口量为1.0462亿吨，环比下降1.3%，较6月份的六个月高点 1.0595亿吨略有回落。 8月8日：全国45个港口进口铁矿库存总量13712.27万吨，环比增加54.37万吨；日均疏港量321.85万吨， 增19.14万吨。 一、行情回顾 周四晚，铁矿石期货2601合约涨0.26%，报775元/吨。 周四铁矿石港口现货成交108万吨，日照港（600017）PB粉报价776（-4）元/吨，超特粉650（-2）元/ 吨，现货高低品PB粉-超特粉价差126元/吨。 三、机构观点 东海期货：铁水产量连续两周回落，加之现实需求偏弱，铁水产量后续将进一步下降。另外，近期北方 地区限产传闻逐渐增多，若落地，矿石需求将进一步走弱。港口中品粉较为充足，块矿贸易商少量到 货，资源有所补充。因盘面震荡偏强，贸易商报价积极性尚可，贸易商适价出售。供应方面，全球铁矿 石发运量环比回落139万吨，但因7月下旬发货量连续三周回升，本周铁矿石到港量环比回升267.3万 吨。周一，铁矿石港口库存也有小幅回升。短期来看，铁矿石价格建议以震荡偏弱思路对待。 中金财富期货：由于以海外供应为主，铁 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - After the high - level meeting, the "anti - involution" hype faded, and the market will focus on the demand during the peak season. The steel market shows a situation of weak supply and demand, with potential further weakening of demand and rising inventory. For iron ore, the market is in the off - season, with high supply and limited upward space for iron - water production. Both steel and iron ore futures prices face downward pressure [2][4] - For steel, it is recommended to hold short positions and set stop - profits in time. For iron ore, short - term short positions can be held lightly with timely stop - profits [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Market Focus**: After the meeting, the market turns to focus on the peak - season consumption in September. The market shows a weak supply - demand situation, with potential further weakening of demand due to the ongoing hot summer [2] - **Price and Spread**: The closing prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures have different changes compared to the previous day and week. Most spot prices have declined slightly. The basis and spreads of futures contracts also show various changes [2] - **Production and Profit**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills remains stable, but the average daily iron - water volume has decreased. The proportion of profitable steel mills has increased. The rebar production has increased, while the hot - rolled coil production has decreased [2] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major varieties has increased, with both social and factory inventories of rebar rising, and the social inventory of hot - rolled coil increasing while the factory inventory has decreased [2] - **Demand and Orders**: The apparent demand of the five major varieties has declined slightly. The trading volume in the spot market has decreased significantly [2] 2. Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The steel mill profitability is acceptable, but the iron - water production is under pressure to decline. The global iron ore shipment is at a high level, and the port inventory is slowly decreasing, but the trade - mine inventory is high [4] - **Price and Spread**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore have different changes compared to the previous day and week. The basis, futures monthly spreads, and variety spreads also show various trends [4] - **Shipping and Logistics**: The Australian and Brazilian iron ore shipments have decreased. The shipping freight rates and exchange rates have changed, and the arrival volume of northern six ports has increased while the average daily port - clearance volume has decreased [4] - **Inventory**: The total port inventory and trade - mine inventory have decreased, and the sintered powder inventory of sample steel mills has also declined [4] 3. Industry News - HeSteel's August silicon - iron and silicon - manganese tender prices and quantities have changed compared to July [6] - Some coal mines have experienced production suspension and resumption, affecting the output of coking coal [6] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is - 16 yuan/ton, with different profit levels in different regions [7]

Investment Rating of the Report The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold prices are trending upward with strong performance, influenced by the risk - aversion sentiment due to the implementation of reciprocal tariffs by the US. The potential US tariff on Swiss gold imports has significantly increased the premium of COMEX gold over London gold. The short - term trend of the US dollar is weak. The US stock index futures face the need for more data to verify the intensification of economic downward pressure, and there is a risk of correction at the current level. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is relatively tortuous. For various commodities, their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and international situations [14][19][23][31]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US allows 401(k) investors to invest in alternative assets. Trump nominates a new Fed governor. China's gold reserves increased by 1.86 tons in July. Gold prices are trending upward, and there are arbitrage opportunities due to the widening regional price difference [12][13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Miran is nominated as a Fed governor by Trump. The US dollar is expected to weaken in the short term [18][19]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Trump nominates Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The risk in the job market has increased, and inflation expectations have risen in July. The possibility of a Fed rate cut within the year has increased in the short term, but the long - term independence of the Fed is affected. Attention should be paid to the risk of correction [21][22][23]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. It is recommended to allocate various stock indices evenly [25][27][28]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations. China's import and export data in July exceeded expectations. The sustainability of strong export growth is questionable. The bond market is in a favorable period in early August, but the upward rhythm is tortuous, and the timing of going long should be carefully grasped [29][30][31]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - China imported 1166.6 million tons of soybeans in July. ANEC expects Brazil to export 815 million tons of soybeans in August. US soybean exports were better than expected, and CBOT soybeans stopped falling and stabilized. The supply in China may tighten in the fourth quarter if no US soybeans are purchased. The operating center of soybean meal futures prices is expected to move up [33][35][37]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - China imported 53.4 million tons of edible vegetable oil in July. The oil market is expected to maintain a strong - side oscillating trend. It is not recommended to enter the market today, and existing long positions can be held [39]. 2.3 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The excavator monthly operation rate in July was 56.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased this week, suppressing the market. Steel prices are driven by policies, but it is difficult for spot prices to rise. It is recommended to be cautious about market rallies [40][41][42]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The operating rate of the corn starch industry increased, and inventory accumulated again. The supply - demand situation does not support the strengthening of the rice - flour price difference, and the regional price difference may be unfavorable to the 09 contract [44][45]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The northern port inventory is similar to that of the same period last year. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises decreased, and consumption slightly increased. It is recommended to hold new - crop short positions and pay attention to the weather [47][48][49]. 2.6 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong on August 7. The coal price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but it is difficult to continue to rebound. Attention should be paid to the change in daily consumption in mid - August [49]. 2.7 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - China imported 10462.3 million tons of iron ore and its concentrates in July. The ore price is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [50][51]. 2.8 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - India's cotton planting area in the 25/26 season is 1058.7 million hectares. Vietnamese textile enterprises have weak restocking intentions. Textile and clothing exports declined in July. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to have limited room for further decline in the short term and may rebound [52][53][54]. 2.9 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - The online auction price of coking coal in Jinzhong Lingshi market increased. The coking coal market has strong speculation sentiment due to policy and inspection factors, and the impact on the fundamentals depends on further policies [58][59]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - A large - scale alumina enterprise in Guangxi postponed the maintenance of a roasting furnace to August 16. The alumina futures price is expected to be weakly oscillating, and it is recommended to wait and see [60][61]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Jingao's project is under pre - approval publicity. The spot transaction price has increased, and the polysilicon price is expected to operate between 45000 - 57000 yuan/ton in the short term. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money put options can be considered [62][63][64]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The social inventory of industrial silicon increased by 0.7 million tons. The supply may increase slightly in August, and the balance sheet may still show inventory reduction. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at 8000 - 8500 yuan/ton [65][67]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - China's copper import volume increased in July. A copper mine accident in Chile affected production. The macro - sentiment is favorable to copper prices in the short term, but inventory accumulation suppresses the market. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the internal - external reverse arbitrage strategy [68][70][71]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased by 240 tons on August 7. The nickel price is difficult to decline deeply in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to short - term band opportunities and medium - term short - selling opportunities at high prices [73][74][75]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Australia will invest in a lithium project. The demand is strong in August, and the supply risk remains. It is recommended to wait and see before the risk event is resolved and take profit on the 9 - 11 reverse arbitrage [76][77]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - Pan American Silver's lead concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The lead price has cost support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at low prices and wait and see for arbitrage [78][79]. 2.17 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Pan American Silver's zinc concentrate production increased in the second quarter. The zinc price may continue to rise in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading and pay attention to the medium - term positive arbitrage opportunity [80][81][82]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - China's LPG weekly commodity volume increased slightly, and the inventory situation changed. The fundamentals are weak, and attention should be paid to the behavior of factory warehouses [83][84]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emission) - The CEA price is oscillating. It is recommended to buy on dips cautiously for enterprises with quota demand [85][86]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the inventory increased. The downward space of caustic soda is limited [87][88][89]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The price of imported wood pulp is stable. The pulp market is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short term [91]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market is locally weak. The PVC price is expected to oscillate in the short term due to cost support from coal [92][93]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - PX supply may increase, and PTA is in a loss. PX may accumulate inventory in August - September, and the market is expected to oscillate in the short term [93][94]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The operating rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has been adjusted locally. The downstream is still in the off - season, and the PTA market is expected to oscillate in the short term [95][96][97]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - A new styrene device of Jingbo has produced qualified products. The styrene market is expected to oscillate at the current price [99]. 2.26 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The inventory of soda ash manufacturers increased. In the medium term, a strategy of short - selling at high prices can be considered for soda ash [100]. 2.27 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The inventory of float glass manufacturers increased. The glass price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on arbitrage [101][102]. 2.28 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - China's import and export data from January to July was released. The container freight rate is expected to be weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling on rebounds [103][104].