瑞达期货研究院 「2025.05.09」 铁矿石市场周报 进口量大幅增加，铁矿石期价冲高回落 研究员：蔡跃辉 添加客服 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 目录 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格：截至5月9日收盘，铁矿主力合约期价为696（-7.5）元/吨，青岛港麦克粉799（-7）元/干吨。 2. 发运：本期澳巴发运总量环比减少218万吨。2025年04月28日-05月04日Mysteel澳洲巴西铁矿发运总量2540.4万吨，环比减少 218.0万吨。澳洲发运量1769.2万吨，环比减少226.0万吨，其中澳洲发往中国的量1518.4万吨，环比减少128.8万吨。巴西发 运量771.2万吨，环比增加8.0万吨。 3. 到港：本期47港到港量减少45.2万吨。2025年04月28日-05月04日中国47港到港总量2634.4万吨，环比减少45.2万吨；中国45 港到港总量2449. ...

| 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月9日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 126 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3210 | -10 | 126 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3300 | 3320 | -20 | 226 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2991 | 3048 | -57 | 209 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3052 | 3098 | -46 | 148 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3074 | 3156 | -52 | 126 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3250 | 3270 | -20 | 50 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货(华北) | 3200 | 3220 | -20 | 0 | | | 热卷现 ...

投资咨询业务资格: 证监许可[2011]1771号 2025年5月9日 研究所晨会观点精萃 分析师 贾利军 从业资格证号： F0256916 投资咨询证号: Z0000671 电话: 021-80128600-8632 邮箱：jialj@qh168.com.cn 明道雨 从业资格证号: F03092124 投资咨询证号: Z0018827 电话: 021-80128600-8631 刘慧峰 从业资格证号: F3033924 投资咨询证号: Z0013026 电话: 021-80128600-8621 邮箱：Liuhf@qh168.com.cn 刘兵 从业资格证号: F03091165 投资咨询证号: Z0019876 邮箱：liub@qh168.com.cn 王亦路 从业资格证号: F03089928 投资咨询证号: Z0019740 电话：021-80128600-8622 邮箱: wangyil@qh168.com.cn 冯冰 从业资格证号：F3077183 投资咨询证号: Z0016121 电话：021-80128600-8616 邮箱：fengb@qh168.com.cn 宏观金融：美英达成有限贸易协 ...

集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 广发早知道-汇总版 投资咨询业务资格： 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 5 月 9 日星期五 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020- 88818009 邮箱：zhangxiaozhen@gf.com.cn 刘珂（投资咨询资格：Z0016336） 电话：020-88818026 邮箱：qhliuke@gf.com.cn 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z001 ...

黑色产业日报 周三，螺纹钢期货价格冲高回落，杭州中天螺纹钢 3220 元/吨，较前一 日上涨 10 元/吨，10 合约基差 122（-11），7 日上午国新办举行新闻 发布会，央行等多部门介绍了"一揽子金融政策支持稳市场稳预期"有 关情况，货币政策利多落地，盘面高开低走，目前市场仍在期待财政政 策发力。后市而言：估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格跌至电炉谷电成本附近， 仅仅高于长流程成本，静态估值处于偏低水平；驱动方面，政策端，预计 中美关税政策仍会反复博弈，短期国内出台大规模财政刺激政策概率较 小，产业端，现实供需尚可，但关税影响出口+需求季节性下滑，市场预 期偏弱，关注限产政策是否落地，预计价格震荡运行。(数据来源：同花 顺 iFinD，Mysteel) ◆ 铁矿石 供给方面，全球发运季节性回升，近期国内进口矿到港有所增长，港口 铁矿库存仍呈现小幅上升态势。需求方面，铁水产量大幅增长，钢厂产 能利用率提升。月末钢厂复产节奏加快，成材价格暂稳，钢厂生产积极 性提高。市场存在粗钢限产预期，但尚未见到具体政策文件出台，五千 万吨限产相较总量仍然较少，正反馈难以形成，矿价仍是弱势。基本面 铁矿属于供需均有走弱趋势，但即将进 ...

2025年05月08日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：中美谈判略有进展 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：震荡回落 | 3 | | 铜：库存持续下降，限制价格回落 | 5 | | 铝：价格承压 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续磨底 | 7 | | 锌：承压运行 | 9 | | 铅：供需双弱，区间震荡 | 10 | | 镍：上下方空间收敛，镍价重回窄幅震荡 | 11 | | 不锈钢：现货补跌修复基差，盘面下方仍有支撑 | 11 | | 锡：假期间价格走弱 | 13 | | 工业硅：需求疲软，盘面弱势 | 15 | | 多晶硅：盘面再创上市新低 | 15 | | 碳酸锂：成本重心延续下移，累库格局制约反弹 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期不佳，低位反复 | 20 | | 硅铁：宏观因素影响，硅铁宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宏观因素影响，锰硅宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 焦煤：电煤疏港情绪影响，震荡偏弱 | 24 | | 动力煤：强制疏港情绪影响，震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel market currently has strong real - world fundamentals and rising macro - optimistic expectations, which support the lower limit of finished products. However, the weak demand expectation and the tendency of new orders to decline limit the upward space of the futures market. Without unexpected positive news, the futures market may fluctuate in the near term [3]. - The iron ore market is trading on the expectation of future demand rather than the current situation of strong supply and demand. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the weakening of exports may intensify industrial chain contradictions [17]. - The coal - coke market is in a short - term situation of strong supply and demand. In the long - term, due to coal supply guarantee and crude steel reduction expectations, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. Although the pressure of high supply of silicon manganese has been alleviated, supply still exceeds demand compared with weak downstream demand. The production of silicon iron has increased slightly this week, and the large increase in warehouse receipts suppresses the rise of the futures price [54]. - The soda ash market is expected to have more maintenance in May, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3126, 3048, and 3098 respectively, and those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3239, 3200, and 3217 respectively [4]. - The spot prices of rebar in different regions such as Shanghai, Beijing, and Hangzhou were between 3180 - 3344 yuan/ton on May 7, 2025 [9]. Market Analysis - From a macro - industrial perspective, Sino - US trade negotiations seem to have new progress, and the macro - optimistic expectation has risen. The real - world fundamentals are strong, but the future demand expectation is weak, and the market may face pressure from weakening demand and falling raw material costs [3]. Iron Ore Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the closing prices of 01, 05, and 09 contracts were 681, 768, and 708 respectively. The prices of different types of iron ore in Rizhao, such as PB powder, were also provided [18]. Market Analysis - The current supply and demand of iron ore are both strong, but the market is trading on future expectations. There is an expectation of a significant decline in demand in mid - to late May, and the negative feedback pressure on steel mills to reduce production is increasing [17]. Coal - Coke Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the coking coal and coke warehouse receipt costs and basis in different regions and contracts were provided, as well as the coking profit on the futures market [35]. Market Analysis - In the short - term, the supply and demand of coal - coke are both strong. In the long - term, coking coal may face long - term price decline, and the upward resistance of coke futures is relatively large [34]. Ferroalloy Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the silicon iron and silicon manganese basis, futures spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided, as well as the prices of related raw materials and the number of warehouse receipts [55][56]. Market Analysis - The ferroalloy market still has a high - inventory pattern. The supply of silicon manganese still exceeds demand, and the increase in silicon iron production and warehouse receipts suppresses the futures price [54]. Soda Ash Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the soda ash futures prices, spreads, and spot prices in different regions were provided [71][72]. Market Analysis - In May, there are expected to be more maintenance activities, increasing supply disturbances. The market is in a long - term oversupply expectation, and although the current inventory accumulation is less than expected, the supply disturbances may increase market fluctuations [70]. Glass Price Data - On May 7, 2025, the glass futures prices, spreads, and basis in different regions were provided, as well as the daily sales data in different regions [98][99]. Market Analysis - The glass market is facing over - supply pressure. The futures price may continue to decline to force new cold repairs. The key variables are the delay of ignition and new cold repairs, as well as the improvement of demand [96].

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 5 月 7 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：节后首个工作日螺纹盘面高开低走，震荡收跌，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3077 元/吨， | 低位整理 | | | 较上一交易收盘价格下跌 19 元/吨，跌幅为 0.61%，持仓增加 9.25 万手。现货价格稳中有跌，成交回落， | | | | 唐山地区迁安普方坯价格下跌 20 元/吨至 2940 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格持平于 3180 元/吨，全国建 | | | | 材成交量 10.73 万吨。近日公布的 4 月财新中国制造业采购经理人指数（PMI）录得 50.4，低于上月 0.8 个 | | | | 百分点，为三个月来最低；财新中国服务业 PMI 也回落 1.2 个百分点至 50.7，为 2024 年四季度以来最低。 | | | | 两大行业景气均下降，当月财新中国综合 PMI 下降 0.7 个百分点，录得 51.1。近期螺纹现货供需有所改 | | | | 善，但在后期钢材出口面临较大挑战的局面下，市场预期普遍较为谨慎。 ...

| 钢材产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年5月7日 | | | 周敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 圳值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3220 | 3220 | O | ਰੇ8 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3210 | O | 88 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3280 | 3270 | 10 | 158 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3060 | 3045 | 15 | 160 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 3096 | 3100 | -4 | 124 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3122 | 3128 | -6 | ರಿ8 | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3240 | 3260 | -20 | 8 | | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3210 | 3220 | -10 | -22 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...