随着2025年接近尾声，市场对铁矿石价格走势的关注逐步转向2026年。从澳大利亚政府和主要金融机构 近期发布的报告来看，尽管对具体价格水平存在分歧，但多数分析机构认为，在全球供应持续扩张、需 求增长有限的背景下，澳大利亚铁矿石价格在2026年面临明显下行压力。 以澳大利亚主流粉矿为主要定价样本的62%品位铁矿石现货价格（青岛到岸价）自2025年8月以来稳定 在每吨100美元以上。由于中国铁矿石买家增加库存，铁矿石价格短期内仍保持稳定。 澳国库部与财政部在17日发布2025-2026财年年中经济与财政展望报告中也提到，自4月以来大宗商品价 格出现小幅上涨，其中铁矿石价格上涨是受到中国持续出台的经济增长支持政策的支撑。 不过，澳政府认为澳大利亚铁矿石价格中期回落的趋势已经明确。《资源与能源季报》指出，随着澳大 利亚本土及其他地区新增产能逐步投放，全球铁矿石市场供给将继续增长，而钢铁需求增长相对温和， 澳大利亚铁矿石价格（FOB）预计将从2024年的每吨93美元降至2025年的平均每吨87美元，再降至2026 年的每吨85美元，然后在2027年进一步降至每吨82美元。 国库部和财政部也在展望报告中对铁矿石价格做了技 ...

Market Overview - In 2025, China's capital market experienced a slow bull market, with major stock indices surpassing the 4000-point mark, although there was significant structural differentiation in market performance [1] - Investors focusing on the technology sector achieved better returns, while others saw limited gains, leading to skepticism about the bull market despite the index levels [1] Index Performance - Major indices showed positive movements: - Shanghai Composite Index: 3917.36 (+26.92, +0.69%) - Shenzhen Component Index: 13332.73 (+192.52, +1.47%) - ChiNext Index: 3191.98 (+69.75, +2.23%) [2] Economic Outlook for 2026 - The macroeconomic environment is expected to recover, supported by more proactive growth policies from the central government [4] - The Central Economic Work Conference has outlined specific measures to stabilize economic growth, focusing on boosting domestic demand [4] - CPI is projected to gradually rise to around 2%, while PPI may turn positive due to policies aimed at reducing overcapacity [4] Trade and Export - In 2025, China's export trade surplus exceeded $1 trillion for the first time, setting a historical record [5] - The trade environment is expected to remain stable in 2026, particularly with a potential agreement between China and the U.S. [5] Monetary Policy - The monetary policy is anticipated to maintain a moderately loose stance, with potential further declines in deposit and loan rates [6] - The trend of capital moving from savings to the capital market is expected to accelerate, with a significant increase in new stock accounts and fund issuance in 2025 [6] Consumer Trends - New consumption patterns have emerged, with companies like Pinduoduo and Moutai showing strong performance, while traditional consumption remains subdued [7] - As the stock market performs well, consumer spending is expected to rebound, benefiting both new and traditional consumption sectors [7] Foreign Investment - The Federal Reserve is expected to continue its rate-cutting cycle, which may lead to a depreciation of the dollar and an appreciation of the yuan, attracting more foreign investment into A-shares [7] - In 2025, foreign capital maintained a net inflow, and this trend is likely to accelerate in 2026 [7] Gold Reserves and Currency Internationalization - The People's Bank of China has increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, enhancing the international status of the yuan [8] - The shift towards yuan settlement in international trade is seen as a strategic move to reduce reliance on the dollar and enhance China's position in global commodity pricing [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel Industry - Last week, steel prices showed a pattern of low - level upward repair, but with weak demand and insufficient upward momentum. The overall steel market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with rebar in the 3000 - 3200 range and hot - rolled coils in the 3150 - 3350 range [1]. - Rebar has good de - stocking performance, and the 1 - 5 positive spread can be held. The acceleration of plate production cuts is expected to speed up the de - stocking of hot - rolled coils, and the 5 - month hot - rolled coil to rebar spread can be exited at low levels. The screw - to - ore ratio is still weak, and considering the low level of molten iron, one can try to long the screw - to - ore ratio arbitrage at low levels [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Last week, iron ore prices rebounded slightly and remained range - bound. The key factors for future trading are the steel mill restocking expectation and the downward space of molten iron. The overall iron ore market is expected to maintain a range - bound trend, with the range of 730 - 820. It is recommended to operate the 05 contract within the range and try shorting around 800 [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry - Last week, both coke and coking coal futures showed a strong rebound. Coke spot prices are still in a downward adjustment trend, and there is still an expectation of further price cuts in the short term. For coke, it is recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and consider the arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to go long the 2605 contract at low levels and use the same arbitrage strategy [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - Last week, ferrosilicon prices rebounded slightly. The supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved, and the price is expected to be range - bound between 5400 - 5650. It is recommended to try shorting when the price rebounds above the immediate cost in Ningxia [8]. - Ferromanganese is in a state of overall supply - demand balance, and manganese ore provides certain support for ferromanganese prices. The key factors for the future are the production cut amplitude and the steel mill restocking before winter. The price is expected to move weakly with limited amplitude [8]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions decreased slightly, and futures prices also showed a downward trend. The basis and spreads of different contracts also changed to varying degrees [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained stable. The costs of electric - arc furnace and converter rebar in Jiangsu increased, and the profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils in different regions showed different degrees of change, with some increasing and some still in a loss state [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output increased slightly by 0.1%, the output of five major steel products decreased by 1.0%, the rebar output increased by 1.6%, and the hot - rolled coil output decreased by 5.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 2.8%, with rebar having better de - stocking performance and hot - rolled coil having slower de - stocking [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 2.8%, the apparent demand of five major steel products decreased by 0.5%, the apparent demand of rebar increased by 2.7%, and the apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.4% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties showed a slight increase or decrease. The basis of the 09 contract for different iron ore varieties increased to varying degrees, and the 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global iron ore shipment increased compared to the previous period, and the molten iron output decreased by 1.2%. The 45 - port average daily ore removal volume decreased by 1.8%, and the national pig iron and crude steel monthly output decreased [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port iron ore inventory increased by 0.8%, the inventory of 64 steel mills in terms of available days decreased by 1.2%, and the inventory of 247 steel mills in terms of available days increased by 5.0% [4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - Coke and coking coal futures prices showed a downward trend in some contracts, and the basis of different contracts changed. The spot prices of coke and coking coal also had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. Supply and Demand - Coke production decreased slightly, and molten iron production decreased by 1.2%. The supply of coking coal decreased slightly, and the demand for coking coal also decreased due to the decrease in coke production [7]. Inventory - Coke inventory decreased slightly overall, with coking plants accumulating inventory and ports and steel mills reducing inventory. Coking coal inventory increased slightly overall, with coal washing plants and coking enterprises reducing inventory and mines, ports, steel mills, and ports accumulating inventory [7]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - Ferrosilicon and ferromanganese futures prices increased slightly, and the spot prices of most regions remained stable. The spreads between different regions and contracts also changed [8]. Cost and Profit - Manganese ore prices were firm, and some overseas mines' January offers increased. Electricity prices were basically stable, providing certain cost support for ferromanganese. The cost of ferrosilicon in some regions decreased slightly [8]. Supply and Demand - Ferrosilicon production decreased by 6.15%, and the production enterprise's operating rate decreased by 6.6%. Ferromanganese production decreased by 0.5%, and the operating rate decreased by 3.4%. The demand for both ferrosilicon and ferromanganese decreased slightly [8]. Inventory - Ferrosilicon factory inventory remained high, and the inventory decreased by 16.3%. Ferromanganese inventory increased slightly by 0.7%, and the average available days of inventory for both remained relatively stable [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the steel and iron ore industry is "oscillating" [2] Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the total demand for steel may remain stable, while the supply of iron ore will continue to be loose, which may lead to a downward shift in the cost - price center and affect steel prices. Attention should be paid to the seasonal and structural contradiction opportunities in the industry [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review 1.1 Price Trend - In the first half of 2025, the price center of the black - plate sector declined. After the supply of raw material varieties became more abundant, the decline was greater than that of finished products. Carbon - element and cost - priced varieties led the decline. From June to July, the "anti - involution" concept drove up the prices of coal - related products, and the sector rebounded, but the rebound was short - lived. After August, as the concept cooled down, the industry contradictions returned to a weak balance, and the sector prices oscillated until the end of the year [9] - The annual average price of iron ore in 2025 decreased compared with 2024, which is in line with the trend of supply - demand balance. The price fluctuations were mainly driven by supply - demand stories and macro events such as Australian cyclones, rumors of steel production control policies, the Sino - US tariff war, and the "anti - involution" policy [18][19] 1.2 Spread and Basis Review - In the spot - futures dimension, the basis fluctuation range narrowed, and the futures premium structure appeared periodically. For varieties with weak spot demand, futures premium before the delivery month would bring greater selling and delivery pressure. In terms of variety spreads, plates were more resilient than building materials, and iron - element varieties were stronger than carbon - element varieties, but the iron/carbon price ratio fluctuated greatly during the "anti - involution" trading period from June to July [24] - The monthly spread structure of weak varieties maintained a relatively stable Contango structure. The cross - month spread of iron ore tended to be flat, and the positive spread structure was weakened. The basis did not show a significant positive spread pattern, only showing periodic positive spreads in late February and April, and a periodic negative spread under the "anti - involution" situation in July [24][26] 2. Steel Demand Analysis 2.1 Domestic Demand - In 2025, the total steel demand was weakly stable, with the average apparent demand of five steel products at 852, and the year - on - year decline narrowed to 0.7%. Downstream demand was differentiated, with building materials being the biggest drag. Real estate had a greater negative impact than infrastructure, while manufacturing and exports brought direct and indirect incremental steel demand [52] - In the real estate dimension, the sales volume and price of commercial housing continued to decline in 2025. If the real - estate - related credit cycle recovers in the first half of 2026, the year - on - year decline in new - house sales volume for the whole year may narrow from about 8% in 2025 to about 5%. The marginal negative impact of the real estate sector on steel demand may weaken [56][57] - In the infrastructure dimension, infrastructure investment improved in 2025, and the policy in 2026 is expected to be more positive. However, due to the transformation of the economic structure, the incremental steel demand driven by infrastructure investment alone will be limited [62] - In the manufacturing dimension, although manufacturing offset the decline in real estate and infrastructure in 2025, there were signs of a slowdown in investment in the second half of the year. In 2026, the risk of a decline in industrial product demand due to the decline in fixed - asset investment in the first quarter needs attention, and the demand - driving effect of the manufacturing industry may slow down [68] 2.2 Exports - In 2025, China's steel exports continued to rise, with an estimated annual export volume of 115 million tons, exceeding the historical high in 2015. The high - volume exports were due to price advantages, with the average export price decreasing by 10.3% year - on - year [74] - China achieved better - than - expected steel exports in 2025 through "regional transfer + variety optimization". In the future, the steel production capacity in ASEAN may expand, which may replace some of China's export shares. The new export license system will promote the optimization of China's steel export varieties in the long - term, and the steel export volume in 2026 is expected to remain high, but the marginal increment will decline [80][88] 3. Steel Supply Analysis 3.1 Overseas Supply - From January to October 2025, the global blast - furnace pig iron production outside China decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, while the crude steel production increased slightly. The decrease in China's crude steel production was the main factor affecting the global decline, while the increase in India's production supported the growth of overseas production [92] - In 2026, the global steel supply is expected to increase slightly, with the increment coming from regions outside China, especially India, Southeast Asia, Africa, and the regions after the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire [93] 3.2 Domestic Supply - In 2025, the production profit of domestic steel mills improved, and the production enthusiasm and output increased. In 2026, the steel supply will continue to be "demand - driven", and the product structure will continue to tilt towards manufacturing or industrial materials. It is expected that the steel output in 2026 will be stable or slightly decrease, with an increase in the proportion of electric - arc - furnace steel and stable pig - iron output [99][114] 4. Iron Ore Supply Analysis 4.1 Overall Supply in 2025 - In 2025, the global supply increment of iron ore basically met expectations, but there were differences in the shipment rhythm and regional structure. As of the 50th week of 2025, the global iron ore shipment increased by 45.027 million tons year - on - year [116] 4.2 Supply Outlook in 2026 - In 2026, the global iron ore supply will continue to expand. The new production capacity of the four major mines will mainly come from Rio Tinto, FMG, and Vale. Non - mainstream mines (excluding Simandou) will have an increment of about 10 million tons [116] 4.3 Four Major Mines - Vale: Multiple projects are in progress. The production target in 2026 is raised to 340 - 360 million tons, with an estimated increment of about 10 million tons [130] - Rio Tinto: The Pilbara iron ore shipment target in 2026 remains unchanged, and the equity increment of Simandou iron ore is 5 - 10 million tons. The estimated increment in 2026 (excluding Simandou) is 5 million tons [131] - BHP: The 100% equity production in fiscal year 2026 is 284 - 296 million tons, an increase of 2 million tons compared with fiscal year 2025 [132] - FMG: The production and sales target in fiscal year 2026 is 195 - 205 million tons. The estimated supply increment in 2026 is about 6 million tons [133] 4.4 Non - mainstream Mines - Non - mainstream mines have different production capacities, and the total new production capacity in 2025 is expected to be 40 million tons (including Simandou, excluding India) [138] 4.5 Domestic Mines - From January to November 2025, China's iron ore production decreased by 2.8% year - on - year. The potential for domestic mine production increment exists, with an estimated increment of about 6 million tons in 2026 [138] 5. Summary and Outlook 5.1 Steel - In 2026, the demand for steel may remain stable, with the demand increment in the range of - 1% - 0%. The supply will continue to be "demand - driven", and the cost support will weaken, which is beneficial to the production profit of steel mills. The unilateral steel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar can be focused on for widening opportunities [144] - The estimated operating range of rebar futures prices is [2850, 3350], and that of hot - rolled coil futures prices is [2950, 3500] [145] 5.2 Iron Ore - In 2026, the global iron ore supply will continue to be in an oversupply situation. The demand for iron ore will remain stable or decline slightly. The price center of iron ore is expected to move down to 95 - 97 US dollars, with an operating range of [85, 110] [146]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Iron Ore 2605 contract rose 2.63%. The port iron ore inventory continued to accumulate, and the molten iron production continued to decline, with both supply and demand being weak. Affected by the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity market last week, it rebounded in a volatile manner. Iron ore is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the medium term. For single - side trading, it is advisable to be cautiously short - biased at high levels. If it stabilizes above the important pressure level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Disk Analysis - This section includes futures price, spread analysis, and position analysis, but specific data and analysis are not provided in the given text [6][10] II. Important Market Information - In 2025, China's steel exports continued the trend of "increasing volume but decreasing price". From January to November, China exported 1.08 billion tons of steel, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%, and the annual export volume is expected to reach a record high. The average export price of steel was 696 US dollars per ton, a year - on - year decrease of 8.3%. - Australian mining company Genmin Limited recently completed a private placement financing of 25.7 million Australian dollars (approximately 17 million US dollars) for the subsequent development of its Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon. The project has confirmed ore resources of about 759 million tons, with an initial planned production capacity of 5 million tons per year, which is expected to increase to at least 10 million tons per year, and commercial production is expected to start around the end of 2026 [13] III. Supply - side Situation - As of November 2025, the import volume of iron ore and concentrates was 110.54 million tons, a decrease of 770,000 tons from the previous month; the average import price was 101.49 US dollars per ton, an increase of 0.94 US dollars per ton from the previous month. - As of November 2025, Australia's iron ore shipments were 61.849 million tons, a decrease of 4.993 million tons from the previous month; Brazil's iron ore shipments were 30.963 million tons, an increase of 1.708 million tons from the first half of the month [18][20] IV. Demand - side Situation - This section involves the daily molten iron production of 247 steel mills, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills, and the procurement volume of Shanghai terminal wire rods and screws, but specific analysis is not provided in the given text [21][25][30] V. Fundamental Analysis - Mysteel statistics show that the total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 87.2395 million tons, a decrease of 1.1025 million tons month - on - month; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8056 million tons, a decrease of 27,100 tons month - on - month; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 31.09 days, a decrease of 0.09 days month - on - month. - Mysteel's survey of 247 steel mills showed that the blast furnace operating rate was 78.47%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.16%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.99% and a year - on - year decrease of 1.20%; the steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged month - on - month and a year - on - year decrease of 12.55%; the daily molten iron production was 2.2655 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 26,500 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 28,600 tons. - The total inventory of imported iron ore in 45 national ports was 155.1263 million tons, an increase of 812,100 tons month - on - month; the daily port clearance volume was 3.1345 million tons, a decrease of 57,400 tons; the number of ships at the port was 111, an increase of 4. - Last week, Mysteel's statistics on the full sample of independent coking enterprises showed that the capacity utilization rate was 72.05%, a decrease of 1.11%; the daily coke production was 630,000 tons, a decrease of 9,800 tons; the coke inventory was 911,000 tons, an increase of 37,800 tons. - Mysteel's survey on the profit situation per ton of coke in 30 independent coking plants across the country showed that the national average profit per ton of coke was 16 yuan/ton; the average profit of quasi - first - grade coke in Shanxi was 35 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 65 yuan/ton, in Inner Mongolia's second - grade coke was - 23 yuan/ton, and in Hebei's quasi - first - grade coke was 66 yuan/ton [32][33] VI. Market Outlook - The port iron ore inventory continues to accumulate, and the molten iron production continues to decline, with both supply and demand being weak. Affected by the relatively strong sentiment in the commodity market last week, it rebounded in a volatile manner. Iron ore is expected to be in a weak and volatile state in the medium term [35] VII. Operation Strategies - Single - side trading: Be cautiously short - biased at high levels. If it stabilizes above the important pressure level of 800 yuan/ton in the future, it is recommended to exit and wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [36]

地区 品种 最新 日变化 周变化 折盘面 最新 日变化 周变化 进口利润 108.35 1.25 3.35 纽曼粉 792 1 13 847.7 98.55 -2.35 -0.50 15.01 PB粉 795 1 13 846.7 108.35 -0.15 2.90 -19.57 麦克粉 785 1 14 857.4 99.15 -1.25 1.45 27.04 金布巴 748 1 13 840.9 92.65 -1.55 0.80 32.37 主流 混合粉 738 0 16 876.8 95.75 -0.60 1.95 3.86 超特粉 677 -1 6 897.5 91.15 -0.70 1.85 -13.02 卡粉 874 2 9 807.2 120.05 -1.05 2.75 -34.84 巴西 巴混 830 -2 11 837.4 110.35 -0.95 2.15 -2.91 主流 巴粗IOC6 765 1 13 839.2 巴粗SSFG 770 1 13 乌克兰精粉 875 2 13 947.5 61%印粉 737 1 13 卡拉拉精粉 875 2 13 895.1 罗伊山粉 782 1 13 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, for different products in the iron ore and related industries, the ratings are as follows: - Iron ore: The short - term view is neutral, with an expected wide - range consolidation within a certain price range [3]. - Coking coal: Neutral [6]. - Coke: Neutral [6]. - Rebar: Neutral [6]. - Hot - rolled coil: Neutral [6]. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market is under dual pressure from supply and demand. Supply - side factors include high shipping and arrival volumes, and rising port inventory. Demand - side factors involve a decline in molten iron production and cautious procurement by steel mills. Policy disturbances mainly reshape the cost structure rather than causing immediate selling pressure. The market sentiment is cautious, and it is expected that iron ore prices will fluctuate widely within a range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction rhythm and restocking signals from steel mills after the policy implementation in January [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Overview - This week, the global iron ore shipping volume was 35.925 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.239 million tons (+6.65%); Australian shipping volume was 20.526 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.852 million tons (+4.33%); Brazilian shipping volume was 9.129 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.25 million tons (+32.71%); the combined shipping volume of Australia and Brazil was 29.655 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.102 million tons (+11.68%). The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 27.234 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.429 million tons (+9.79%) [3][37][54]. - The blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills nationwide was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.99% (-1.15%); the daily average molten iron production was 2.2655 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.0265 million tons (-1.10%); the profit ratio was 35.93%, unchanged from the previous week (+0.00%) [3][65]. - The iron ore inventory at 45 ports in China was 155.1263 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8121 million tons (+0.53%); the iron ore inventory at 47 ports in China was 162.2553 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.1406 million tons (+0.71%) [3][88]. - The settlement price of the main iron ore futures contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 17.00 yuan/ton (+2.24%); the basis was 31.81 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.26 yuan/ton (-14.19%); the Platts iron ore price index was 108.35 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 US dollars/dry ton (+3.19%); the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.008 [3][7]. 2. Key News and Industry Chain Dynamics - Steel mill dynamics: AMNS India plans to increase its steel production capacity to 25 - 26 million tons by 2030 [4]. - Mine dynamics: Rio Tinto and its joint - venture partner invested 191 million US dollars to start the feasibility study of the Rhodes Ridge iron ore mine in Australia; the iron ore project in Amapá, Brazil, plans to restart in 2026; Australian mining company Genmin completed a 17 - million - US - dollar financing to accelerate the Baniaka iron ore project in Gabon; India's SAIL signed a 28 - year mining contract for the Rowghat iron ore mine with Kalunga Company; US mining company MagIron obtained the first hematite mining lease in Minnesota [4]. - Macroeconomic news: Fed officials made various statements on monetary policy, and relevant economic data such as non - farm payrolls and manufacturing PMI were released [4]. 3. Futures Market - Main contract: The settlement price of the main contract was 777.00 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 17.00 yuan/ton (+2.24%); the basis was 31.81 yuan/ton (-14.19%); the Platts iron ore price index was 108.85 US dollars/dry ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.35 US dollars/dry ton (+3.19%); the rebar - to - iron - ore ratio of the main contract was 4.008 [7]. - Spread: The 9 - 1 spread was 40.00 yuan/ton, the 1 - 5 spread was 18.00 yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was 22.00 yuan/ton. The narrowing trend of spreads between near - and far - month contracts was emerging [3][9]. 4. Spot Market - Iron ore spot price: The report presents price trends of the Platts iron ore index, port spot prices, and Tangshan 66% iron concentrate powder [18][20][23]. - Block - to - powder spread: The report shows the spread between different types of iron ore powders and block - to - powder spreads [24][27]. - Spread between different grades: The report analyzes spreads between medium - and low - grade ores, medium - and high - grade ores, and other grade combinations [30][31]. 5. Supply - Global shipping volume: This week, the global iron ore shipping volume increased, with significant increases in Australian and Brazilian shipping volumes [3][37]. - Shipping volume of the four major mines: The report shows the weekly average shipping volumes of the four major mines in Australia and Brazil and their shipping volumes to China [45][48]. - Shipping costs: The shipping cost from Western Australia to Qingdao was 10.50 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 0.37 US dollars/ton (+3.65%); the shipping cost from Brazil to Qingdao was 24.07 US dollars/ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.06 US dollars/ton (+9.36%) [52]. - Domestic mines: The capacity utilization rate of 266 domestic mines was 59.72%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.45% (-0.75%); the daily output of iron concentrate powder was 37.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.28 tons (-0.74%) [56]. 6. Demand - Steel enterprise production: The blast furnace capacity utilization rate, molten iron production, and profit ratio of steel mills showed certain changes, with a decline in molten iron production and stable profit ratio [3][65]. - Sinter powder consumption and charging ratio: The daily average consumption of domestic and imported sinter powders decreased, and the report also shows the charging ratios of block ore, sinter ore, and pellet ore in steel mills [67][68]. - Global steel production: The report presents the production of blast furnace pig iron and crude steel globally, in China, and in other regions [74][77][80]. - Port clearance: The port clearance volume and spot trading volume showed certain trends [85]. 7. Inventory - Port inventory: The iron ore inventory at 45 and 47 ports in China increased, and the report also shows the inventory of different types of iron ore such as iron concentrate powder, block ore, and pellet ore at ports [88][90]. - Steel mill inventory: The imported ore inventory and imported sinter powder inventory of 247 sample steel mills decreased [95]. 8. Profit - The profit of Tangshan rebar was - 134.63 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8.51 yuan/ton (+6.75%); the profit of Tangshan hot - rolled coil was - 130.47 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.46 yuan/ton (-6.76%) [101].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive assessment and development strategy analysis of the Chinese iron ore industry from 2026 to 2032 [1] Group 1: Import Data - In October 2025, China's imports of iron ore and its concentrates reached 111 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.3% [1] - The import value for the same period was $11.193 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 14.2% [1]

南华期货铁矿石周报 ——上有供给压制，下有铁水支撑 周甫翰 （投资咨询资格证号：Z0020173） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月20日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 【核心矛盾】 目前铁矿石价格仍区间运行，价格上方有高供给压制，下方有钢厂利润、铁水修复预期支撑，短期估值修 复后预计价格继续大幅上行空间不大。 【利多因素】 1.钢厂利润回升，产业链矛盾缩小 2.螺纹钢基本面有所好转，库存下降 【利空因素】 1. 铁矿石发运整体偏高，整体现货不缺 3.焦煤有止跌的迹象，对铁矿石价格的跷跷板支撑作用减弱 发运端，铁矿石发运环比增加，年底发运增量显著。年同比发运过剩量在加速上升，目前全年发运累计同 比增量在4500万吨，其中3300万吨来自于非主流矿。非主流矿发运在超季节性高位，目前成为了供给增量的 主力。铁矿石发运整体在高位，供给压力仍大，发运偏高对价格上方形成压制。 需求端，铁水产量继续环比下降。但是从未来检修数据看，预计铁水产量在未来1-2周见底。钢厂利润在减 产后回升，钢厂复产增产的驱动增加。五大材整体供需双弱，但产量下降大于库存下降的幅度，使得去库斜 率 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in China's iron ore production, with a notable decrease in both monthly and cumulative output for the year 2025 compared to the previous year [1]. Industry Summary - As of October 2025, China's iron ore raw ore production reached 84.03 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.9% [1]. - From January to October 2025, the cumulative production of iron ore in China was 851.736 million tons, showing a cumulative decline of 3.2% [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies in the iron ore sector include Hebei Steel Resources (000923), Hainan Mining (601969), Jinling Mining (000655), Dazhong Mining (001203), Western Mining (601168), Ansteel (000898), Taiyuan Iron & Steel (000825), Baotou Steel (600010), Benxi Steel (000761), and Jiugang Hongxing (600307) [1].