证券研究报告 策略 TMT 和先进制造景气回升 华泰研究 2025 年 6 月 12 日│中国内地 策略月报 核心观点 我们的中观景气模型显示，5 月全行业景气指数小幅回落，但下行斜率放缓。 分板块看，大金融、TMT、先进制造景气明显回升，景气改善或有一定持续 性的品种包括：1）TMT：AI 产业趋势方兴未艾，元件-存储链、通信设备、 游戏（新增）景气爬坡，软件景气筑底；2）制造：部分先进制造产能出清 或准出清，且需求有企稳迹象，如通用、自动化景气爬坡，风电、光伏、航 空装备景气回升；3）消费：新消费和大众品率先改善，美护、饰品（新增） 景气爬坡，啤酒（新增）、调味品、乳制品景气回升；4）其它：医药（投融 资周期回暖）、保险（新增）、电力（新增）景气回升，贵金属维持高位。 TMT：元件-存储链、通信设备、游戏景气爬坡，软件景气筑底 AI Agent 渗透率处于"奇点时刻"，海外 AI 资本开支有韧性，大模型迭代等 产业催化密集：1）元件-存储链：上游 PCB 台股 4 月营收同比增速回升； 中游 DXI 指数同比增速连续 3 个月回升，DRAM 价格同比降幅收窄，存储 周期有企稳回升迹象；2）通信设备：4 月 ...

每日晨报 2025 年 6 月 12 日 银河观点集萃 责任编辑 周颖 ☎：010-80927635 网: zhouying_yj@chinastock.com.cn 分析师登记编码：S0130511090001 要闻 商务部国际贸易谈判代表:中美原则上达成协 议框架 www.chinastock.com.cn 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文最后的中国银河证券股份有限公司免责声明 固收:高波策略年内累计涨幅超 27%——转债量化类策略更新。策略绩效及策 ● 略推荐:上一周期(5.27-6.9)低价增强策略、改良双低策略、高价高弹性策 略分别录得 1.5%、2.7%、4.7%(同期基准 1.9%)。今年以来,三类策略绩 效分别为 4.5%、16.6%、27.3%（同期基准 5.1%），累计超额收益率-0.6%、 11.5%、22.2%。 上 个 周 期 权 益 市 场 回 升, 万 得 全 A/中 证 转 债 累 计 上 涨 2.2%/1.9%，高价策略重新占优。 华熙生物(688363):HA 龙头革新启航,生命科技引领增长。公司是全球 ● 领先的生物活性材料科技企业,深耕合成生物学技术,开拓全产业链布局,品 ...

Core Insights - HEINEKEN inaugurated the Dr. H.P. Heineken Centre, a new €45 million Global Research and Development Centre in Zoeterwoude, Netherlands, aimed at enhancing brewing techniques and developing new beverages [1][7][11] - The Centre will focus on innovation in response to changing consumer preferences, including new flavors, natural ingredients, and low- or no-alcohol options [2][5] - The facility is strategically located near leading universities, fostering collaboration in sustainable brewing and fermentation science [6][8] Investment and Infrastructure - The Centre spans 8,800 m² and is designed to support HEINEKEN's global R&D network, which includes hubs in Mexico, South Africa, and Vietnam [11] - It will house around 100 employees from 12 nationalities, focusing on brewing innovation, flavor research, and sustainability [11] - The building meets BENG standards with an A++++ energy label, emphasizing HEINEKEN's commitment to sustainability [11] Strategic Goals - The Centre is part of HEINEKEN's EverGreen Strategy, aimed at innovating faster and smarter while reducing environmental impact [5] - It aims to connect HEINEKEN's brewing legacy with modern science, ensuring the development of products that resonate with future drinking cultures [5][7] - The investment reinforces the Netherlands' position in the global food technology sector and contributes to the knowledge economy through partnerships with universities [8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for China Resources Beer (00291) with a target price of HKD 34 [1] Core Insights - China Resources Beer achieved positive sales growth in April and May, consistent with the sales trend from January to May 2025, benefiting from favorable raw material factors that helped increase gross margin by over 1 percentage point [1] - The company is implementing "Three Precision" initiatives to further reduce operating costs [1] - The management anticipates pressure on the white liquor business revenue this year due to weak demand and high base effects, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1] Sales Performance by Product - Heineken continues to perform strongly with sales growth exceeding 20% year-on-year - Super X's year-to-date sales have increased by approximately 10% year-on-year - Sales of Old Snow and Amstel have seen over 50% year-on-year growth - Snow Beer Pure Draft experienced a slight single-digit decline in sales year-on-year [1] Sales Performance by Region - The company highlighted strong sales momentum in Guangdong, particularly around the Shenzhen area - It is expected that East China and South China will become key drivers of sales growth in 2025 [1] Sales Performance by Channel - The management noted that demand in the ready-to-drink channel remains weak, although there was a slight improvement in some dining markets in East and South China in May - The company has gained some market share in the nightlife channel - The proportion of ready-to-drink channel sales remains stable, consistent with the end of 2024 levels, at approximately 38-39% [1] Capital Expenditure Plans - Due to strong Heineken sales, the company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian - In 2025, further investments are planned in maintenance, production line transformation, and the white liquor business - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease [2] Financial Assumptions - The report uses a discounted cash flow method with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3%, derived from a 3% risk-free rate and a 9.1% risk premium, and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2]

Group 1: Current Status of the Beer Industry - The retail sales of tobacco and alcohol increased by 6.1% year-on-year from January to October 2024, indicating stable consumer demand [2][14] - China's beer production has shown steady growth since 2021, with low industry inventory levels in 2023 and strong confidence among distributors [2][17] - The market is highly concentrated, with five major brands (China Resources, Tsingtao, Yanjing, Chongqing, and Zhujiang) holding 70% of the market share, and Yanjing Beer reported a remarkable net profit growth of 94.3% in 2023 [2][17] Group 2: Trends in Beer Consumption Demand - Beer has gained significant popularity on social media, with a 260% year-on-year increase in social media mentions, leading the beverage industry [3][24] - The flavor profile of beer is diversifying, with white beer and fruit-flavored beers gaining traction, and the integration of tea flavors becoming a new trend [3][27] - The market for non-alcoholic and low-alcohol beers is rapidly growing, with a market value of 94.07 billion yuan in 2023, expected to increase its market share by 4% by 2027 [3][19] Group 3: Future Development Trends in the Beer Industry - Product innovation is on the rise, with a focus on integrating Chinese tea culture into beer, and packaging trends leaning towards functionality and sustainability [4][17] - Health-conscious products are emerging, such as zero-sugar and zero-alcohol beers, with brands like Suntory introducing vitamin D-infused non-alcoholic options [4][19] - Marketing strategies are evolving, with platforms like Douyin and Xiaohongshu being key for brand promotion, and live-streaming sales gaining traction [4][30]

Core Insights - Lanzhou Yellow River's net profit increased by 30.59% year-on-year in the first quarter, indicating a positive turnaround after a period of declining performance [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Lanzhou Yellow River is the only listed company in the beer industry in Northwest China and the only private enterprise among listed beer companies [1] - The actual controller changed at the end of last year, with Hunan Xinyuan Investment Group becoming the largest shareholder [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - The company faced significant challenges, with beer business losses almost every year since 2018, and revenue in 2024 projected at only 210 million [1] - The new management aims to achieve profitability within three years, focusing on year-on-year growth [1] Group 3: Management and Structural Changes - The new management team reduced the number of executives from 14 to 7 and management departments from 15 to 9, cutting personnel from over 100 to 80 [1] - A competitive employment system was introduced, with performance-based incentives for staff [1] Group 4: Product and Marketing Strategy - The company optimized its product range from over 100 categories to 71, developing new products like "Charming 8 Degrees" beer and health-oriented beverages [1] - A national marketing strategy was initiated, including the opening of "Yellow River Tavern" in Changsha and a strategic partnership with Zhongguo Tianze Media for brand promotion [1] Group 5: Investment in Infrastructure - The new management decided to invest in equipment across multiple locations, including a new fresh beer production line in Lanzhou and a can production line in Tianshui with an investment of over 20 million [1]

事件：近日，我们参加了燕京啤酒2025 年度分析师及投资者交流会，核心感受为：公司内部士气高 涨，在十四五圆满收官的基础上，十五五阶段将持续打磨内功，做优做强，在管理体系建设、市场建 设、供应链转型、数字化建设等多方面深耕突破，持续实现业绩增长，整体信心充足。 此外公司会强化组织&人才保障措施，为增长持续提供动力。 盈利预测：我们预计，公司25-27 年实现营收155.1/161.9/167.2 亿元，分别同比+5.7%/+4.4%/+3.3%，实 现归母净利润14.1/16.9/19.5 亿元，分别同比+33.8%/+19.3%/+15.6%，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：原材料成本大幅上涨，行业竞争加剧，U8 增长不及预期。 公司对U8 单品未来增长策略清晰，优势市场深挖单点效率+非即饮渠道推广；弱势市场加大建设力 度。从公司目标角度看，U8 阶段性销量占比目标为30%，距离现有规模仍有较大空间。燕京啤酒对U8 单品未来增长落地策略清晰。在已有优势市场，主要深挖终端单点效率，以及在非即饮渠道提升罐装产 品销量。同时加大弱势市场建设力度，以总分共建方式组合公司资源，推进百城工作，在"高容量、高 结构、高成长 ...

Group 1: China Resources Beer (00291) - The company achieved positive sales growth in April and May, aligning with the sales trend from January to May 2025 [1] - The management expects pressure on the liquor business revenue due to weak demand and high base, aiming to avoid losses and impairments [1] - The company benefits from favorable raw material factors, leading to a gross margin increase of over 1 percentage point, while operational costs are reduced through "Three Precision" initiatives [1] - Heineken sales grew over 20% year-on-year, while Super X saw approximately 10% growth; Snow Beer Pure Life experienced a slight decline [1] - Sales momentum is strong in Guangdong, particularly around Shenzhen, with expectations for East and South China to drive growth in 2025 [1] - The ready-to-drink channel remains weak, but there was slight improvement in some dining markets in May [1] Group 2: Capital Expenditure and Financial Projections - The company plans to expand Heineken production capacity in Fujian and continue investments in maintenance, production line transformation, and liquor business in 2025 [2] - Future capital expenditures are expected to gradually decrease [2] - Key assumptions for financial projections include a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 11.3% and a terminal growth rate of 3% [2] Group 3: Kingsoft Software (03888) - The upcoming game "Mecha BREAK" is expected to be a key driver for Kingsoft's stock price [3] - The game is highly anticipated, ranking 5th on Steam's wishlist, with 3.5 million pre-registrations and a peak of over 300,000 concurrent players during closed testing [4] - Potential outcomes for the game's performance include revenue predictions of 500 million RMB if it ranks 10-20 on Steam, and over 300 million RMB if it enters the top ten [4] Group 4: FiberHome Technologies (601869) - Goldman Sachs reviewed FiberHome's earnings forecast following China Mobile's 2025-26 tender results, which were below expectations [6] - FiberHome's winning share in the tender decreased to 13.6%, down from 19-20% in previous tenders, and the average procurement price dropped by 26% [7] - The tender results indicate a cautious outlook for the telecom industry's fiber optic cable demand [7] Group 5: Q Technology (01478) - Q Technology reported a 1.9% month-on-month increase in smartphone camera module shipments for May 2025, but a year-on-year decline of 17.5% [8] - The shipment of camera modules with 32 million pixels and above saw a year-on-year decline of 19.0% [8] - Fingerprint recognition module shipments surged by 45.0% year-on-year, benefiting from market share gains and increased production capacity [8]

Group 1 - Yang Weiguo resigned from the board of Yanghe Co., Ltd. due to work adjustments, raising concerns about corporate governance and strategic stability [1] - Zhangyu A announced the sale of its 100% stake in French ETABLISSEMENTS ROULLET FRANSAC for €2.6 million and related real estate for €2.2 million, totaling approximately ¥39.32 million, which may improve cash flow but reduce overseas business scale [2] - Yanjing Beer has implemented a "beer + beverage" marketing strategy targeting young consumers, focusing on dining scenarios, which may attract investor attention towards its market expansion capabilities [3] Group 2 - The China Alcoholic Drinks Association is soliciting opinions on the group standard for "multi-grain low-alcohol fragrant liquor," aligning with the trend towards lower alcohol content and potentially guiding product structure adjustments in the liquor industry [4]

Core Viewpoint - Lehui International (603076) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, Ningbo Thirty Kilometers Investment Co., Ltd., has invested 5 million yuan, accounting for 25%, to establish Ningbo Jiu Hai Enterprise Management Partnership (Limited Partnership) with a total scale of 20 million yuan [1] Investment Details - The investment aims to enhance the company's investment capabilities and achieve asset appreciation through the sale of "Fresh Beer 30 Kilometers" products from the partnership [1] - This investment is not classified as a related party transaction or a major asset restructuring, and it falls within the authority of the general manager, thus does not require approval from the board of directors or shareholders [1]