1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. The high - interest - rate environment affects consumption, and inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing the Fed's decision on interest rate cuts. - Domestic: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with weakening consumption and investment and declining credit demand. Exports provided support in July, but the pressure on exports may gradually emerge from September. - Asset Outlook: At the end of August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak season for fixed - asset investment and consumption. The global central bank summit in late August is also a window for speculating on Fed policies. As the economic growth slowdown pressure rises, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, and there are differences in CPI and PPI expectations. Inflation may rebound in autumn, influencing Fed decisions [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In July, the domestic economic growth rate slowed down. Exports provided support, but the "rush to import" from the US decreased in late July. Exports may remain resilient in August but face pressure from September [8]. - **Asset Views**: In late August, the market enters a verification period and a policy - preview window. With the economic slowdown, short - term market volatility may increase [8]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: Growth opportunities are spreading, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: An offensive strategy can be deployed, and it is expected to fluctuate upwards [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market is still under pressure, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are expected to fluctuate upwards, affected by Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy [9]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season is turning to the off - season, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: Affected by production - restriction news, it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals remain unchanged, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. - **Coke**: With continuous production - restriction expectations, the seventh round of price increases has started, and it is expected to fluctuate [9]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The price is expected to fluctuate at a high level due to the extension of the tariff suspension between China and the US [9]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The spot is weakly stable, and the price is expected to fluctuate under pressure [9]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory has slightly increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [9]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The inventory - accumulation pressure continues, and it is expected to fluctuate downwards [11]. - **LPG**: The cracking spread has stabilized, and it is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Asphalt**: The price at 3500 may turn from support to pressure, and it is expected to decline [11]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Hogs**: Affected by stricter transportation policies, the price is expected to fluctuate [11]. - **Rubber**: It is expected to fluctuate upwards, mainly in a range - bound pattern [11]. - **Pulp**: The price of coniferous wood pulp in US dollars has not increased, and it is expected to fluctuate [11].

此次获认定的25个产品包括：古县核桃、官滩枣、襄陵莲藕、大宁西瓜、大宁红皮小米、永和条枣、乡 宁翅果、蒲县马铃薯、蒲县核桃、南林交莲藕、霍州苹果、贺家庄鲜桃、隰县梨、洪洞莲藕、赵康辣 椒、古县小米、霍州核桃、汾西梨、北董大蒜、曲沃麦茬羊肉、翼城苹果、安泽蜂蜜、曲沃葡萄、浮山 苹果、翼城翅果。 近日，国家知识产权局发布第640号公告，山西省临汾市"古县核桃"等25个农产品地理标志成功通过转 化认定，标志着该市地理标志保护工作取得重大突破。 据临汾市市场监管局相关负责人介绍，自2024年国家知识产权局部署农产品地理标志转化工作以来，该 局通过强化统筹指导、建立市县联动机制、严格材料审核、优化申报流程等举措，确保转化工作高效有 序推进。此次25个地理标志产品认定既是该市知识产权保护工作的重要成果，也是推动特色农业高质量 发展的有力实践。 地理标志产品保护是促进乡村特色经济发展的重要抓手，对实现富农强企和乡村振兴具有重要意义。据 介绍，下一步，该局将持续聚焦知识产权高质量创造、高效益运用、高标准保护和高水平服务，加大地 理标志产品的培育和保护力度，鼓励各县(市、区)结合自身特色，探索地理标志与产业融合路径，挖掘 更多 ...

Group 1 - The total import and export value of Qinghai Province reached 4.18 billion yuan in the first seven months of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 49.3% [1] - Exports amounted to 3.69 billion yuan, showing a significant year-on-year growth of 90.3%, while imports were 490 million yuan, down 43.2% [1] - Qinghai Province has maintained the highest growth rate in imports and exports for seven consecutive months nationwide [1] Group 2 - The number of foreign trade entities in Qinghai Province has steadily increased, with private enterprises being the main driving force behind foreign trade growth [1] - Key export products include solar cells, lithium-ion batteries, and electric passenger vehicles, contributing significantly to export growth [1] - Exports of salt lake chemical products surged, reaching 1.79 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8 times, accounting for 48.4% of the province's total exports and contributing 94.2% to export growth [1] Group 3 - Qinghai Province's "Qing" branded specialty agricultural products have shown strong export momentum, totaling 450 million yuan to 46 countries and regions, a year-on-year increase of 47.6% [1] - The variety of exported agricultural products reached 95, with 56 new types added compared to the same period last year, maintaining the highest growth rate in exports for six consecutive quarters [1] - Notable agricultural exports include goji berries at 14.79 million yuan (up 34.8%), frozen trout at 3,875.7 tons (up 120%), and vegetables at 2,119.6 tons (up 170%) [1] Group 4 - Qinghai Province's market diversification continues to advance, with steady growth in trade with countries involved in the Belt and Road Initiative [2] - In the first seven months, trade with 100 countries and regions was conducted, with 75 being Belt and Road countries, resulting in a total import and export value of 3.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 66% [2] - Among the Belt and Road countries, trade with 17 countries doubled, with Hungary, Russia, and Vietnam being the top three trading partners, achieving import and export values of 1.68 billion, 330 million, and 270 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 1,390%, 150%, and 460% [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Paper pulp: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Sugar: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Apple: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Timber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Natural rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - 20 - number rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] - Butadiene rubber: Not clear from the given rating symbols [1] Core Views - The report analyzes multiple soft commodities including cotton, sugar, apple, rubber, paper pulp, and timber - provides market conditions, supply - demand situations, and offers operation suggestions such as temporary observation [2][3][4] Summaries by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton declined with large intraday drops, spot sales base remained stable, and spot trading was average. Pure - cotton yarn trading was okay with stable prices [2] - Inventory digestion in July slowed down, expected to improve in August due to approaching peak season. Cotton imports in July were at a low level, 50000 tons, down 149400 tons year - on - year and up 22600 tons month - on - month. From January to July 2025, cumulative imports were 520000 tons, a 74.2% year - on - year decrease [2] - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season. Short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of most inland enterprises. Suggest temporary observation [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Production data from the central - southern part of Brazil in the second half of July was favorable. Short - term, US sugar prices may stabilize and rebound due to potentially lower production in Brazil. Medium - term, US sugar futures prices have not reached the bottom [3] - Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. Sales rhythm was fast this year, inventory decreased year - on - year, and spot pressure was relatively light. Market focus shifted to imports and yield estimates for the next season. Import volume of sugar and syrup decreased significantly this year, but the yield for the 25/26 season is uncertain [3] Apple - Futures prices fluctuated. Early - maturing apples started to be on the market, with slow coloring, small fruit sizes, and a shortage of high - quality products leading to high prices [4] - As of August 14, national cold - storage apple inventory was 461300 tons, a 49.4% year - on - year decrease. Last week's cold - storage apple removal volume was 50700 tons, a 32.31% year - on - year decrease. Market focus shifted to new - season yield estimates [4] 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - RU, NR, and BR all dropped significantly and rebounded in the afternoon. Domestic natural and synthetic rubber prices declined, and Thai raw material market prices mostly fell [6] - Global natural rubber supply is entering the high - yield period. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants decreased, while the upstream butadiene plant operating rate increased significantly [6] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, semi - steel tires decreased, and tire enterprise inventories increased. Qingdao's natural rubber inventory decreased to 617000 tons, and China's butadiene port inventory increased to 204000 tons. Suggest temporary observation [6] Paper Pulp - Paper pulp futures dropped significantly. Shandong Moon's spot price was 5450 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; Russian needle pulp in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai was 5250 yuan/ton; broad - leaf pulp was 4150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [7] - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's main pulp ports was 2.099 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. Domestic social retail data in July weakened month - on - month, indicating weakening domestic demand. Suggest temporary observation or range - trading strategy [7] Timber - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices remained stable. Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. Outer - market quotes increased for two consecutive months, while domestic spot price increases were small, and traders' pressure increased [8] - After entering the off - season, the daily port outbound volume was around 60000 cubic meters with good overall outbound conditions. As of August 15, national port timber inventory was 3.06 million cubic meters, a 0.65% month - on - month decrease. Suggest temporary observation [8]

郎轶婷表示，全球油籽类供应整体充足，给菜粕需求带来压力。油脂成为支撑全球压榨利润的核心，美 国、巴西等地豆油价格受生物柴油政策支撑，印度植物油食用需求旺盛，共同推动形成"油强粕弱"格 局。"整体来看，国内外油粕比呈现分化态势，国际市场受生物柴油需求驱动，维持油强粕弱格局，而 国内因蛋白需求稳定，压榨利润仍主要依赖粕类支撑。"郎轶婷说。 期货日报网讯(记者郑泉)8月20日，由郑州商品交易所、芝加哥商业交易所集团联合主办的2025中国(郑 州)国际期货论坛隆重举行。在当日下午举行的农产品(油脂油料)论坛上，建发农产品集团资深分析师郎 轶婷发表主题演讲，深入剖析了当前菜粕市场热点及供需形势。 "2025/2026年度全球菜籽产量呈现恢复性增长，但库存偏紧、贸易政策调整等多空因素交织，使得菜粕 市场呈现'增产不宽松'的结构性特征。"郎轶婷介绍，2025/2026年度全球油菜籽产量预计达8954万吨， 同比增加446万吨，增幅为5%，主要得益于欧盟产区的恢复性增长。欧盟菜籽种植面积实现历史性扩 张，同比增幅超10%，创历史新高。不过，由于期初库存处于低位，欧盟增产部分将优先用于补充区内 库存，导致全球菜籽期末库存仅增至 ...

看期货热点,到 3 金十期货 EFF 2025 08-20 15:56 今日主力合约涨跌分布 今日主力合约市场中27个合约上涨,51个合 约下跌。市场呈现明显的空头情绪,更多资金 和交易活动集中在下跌品种上。 主力合约涨跌排行 (%) 2.00% 0.00% -2.00% -4.00% -6.00% -8.00% 涨幅居前的品种： 乙二醇2601(+1.61%)、甲醇2601(+1.59%)、烧碱 2509(+1.54%)。这些品种受供需影响显著。 数据透视线索 跌幅居前的品种: 碳酸锂2511(-8.00%)、纯碱2601(-5.01%)、玻璃 2601(-4.36%)，可能受空头力量增强或基本面利空影响。 资金流向(亿元) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 资金流入最多的品种： 中证1000 2509(37.7亿元)、沪深300 2509(19.21亿元)、中证500 2509(18.18亿元),这些品种吸引了大量主 力资金关注。 $ 期市动态雷达 资金流出最多的品种： 沪银2510(-11.13亿元)、碳酸锂2511(-8.51亿 元)、十年国债2509(-7.53亿元)，这些品种出现了明显的 ...

南非经济学家在接受总台记者采访时表示，这一判断凸显出关税不确定性对南非宏观经济前景的压力。 南非金山大学经济学家 雅尼·罗瑟：当前关税对南非出口造成严重冲击，特别是汽车制造业和农产品出口领域，更严峻的是人们将会失业，在南非本就严峻 的高失业率困境下，再就业将异常艰难。 近日，非洲最大银行——南非标准银行将今年南非经济增长预期由此前的1.8%下调至0.9%，2026年经济增长预期下调至1.3%。 南非标准银行首席经济学家 古拉姆·巴利姆：南非出口产品中，高达三分之二是矿业产出和制造业产品，尤其是汽车产品，这些正好处于美国30%的高关税 打击之下。美国试图遏制自身衰退势头，同时阻挠其他国家的崛起，这本质上是国际竞争问题，是将贸易与产业政策武器化。如果我们被排挤出美国市场， 我们要持续深化与除美国外的其他发达国家以及全球南方的关系。 ...

Report Summary 1. Core View - The US including Chinese jujube in the so - called key enforcement list is mainly for political purposes, and the actual impact on domestic jujube trade is negligible. It is not recommended to use this news as a short - selling logic [1] 2. Key Data - In 2024, China's exports of fruits and their products to the US were $805 million, a 25.4% year - on - year increase, accounting for 6.5% of the total agricultural exports to the US. Among them, fruit products were $620 million, a 31.3% year - on - year increase; dried fruits such as apple chips and jujubes were $115 million, a 5% year - on - year increase; fresh fruits such as pears and citrus fruits were $60 million, a 19.3% year - on - year increase [1] - In 2024, China's jujube exports were only 35,600 tons, accounting for a very small proportion of the total production. The export countries are relatively scattered, and direct trade with the US is extremely limited [1] 3. Industry Background - The US Department of Homeland Security listed steel, copper, lithium, caustic soda, and jujube as key enforcement industries under the "Uyghur Forced Labor Prevention Act" to strengthen the US's economic and national security [1]

Group 1 - Trump's recent attempt to pressure India with tariffs has failed, as Modi has made it clear that India will not yield to external pressure [1][3] - Modi's upcoming visit to China is seen as a strategic move to assert India's independent foreign policy and signal to the U.S. that India will not be manipulated [3][4] - Modi's emphasis on self-reliance and the promotion of "Make in India" during his Independence Day speech indicates a strong stance against U.S. economic policies [4][8] Group 2 - India has taken countermeasures against U.S. pressure, including canceling a planned visit by Defense Minister Singh to the U.S. and halting military equipment purchases from the U.S. [6] - The BRICS nations are increasingly dissatisfied with U.S. tariff policies, and India is seeking to strengthen cooperation with these countries to mitigate the impact of U.S. trade actions [6][8] - Modi's visit to China and collaboration with BRICS could potentially reshape global trade dynamics and provide a counterbalance to U.S. influence [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that trade between China and other member countries of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) has shown steady growth, with a trade volume of $247.7 billion in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 0.8% [1][3] - Over the past five years, trade volume between China and SCO member countries has consistently surpassed $300 billion, $400 billion, and $500 billion, reaching a historical high of $512.4 billion in 2024, which represents a growth of 2.7% compared to the previous year [6][8] Group 2 - China primarily exports electromechanical products, automobiles and parts, clothing, and chemicals to other member countries, while importing oil and gas, agricultural products, coal, and minerals [6] - As of June 2025, China's direct investment stock in other member countries exceeds $40 billion, with investments expanding from traditional sectors like energy and infrastructure to emerging fields such as digital economy and green development [10] - Chinese enterprises are implementing clean energy projects in regional countries, including wind, solar, and hydropower, and are accelerating cooperation in areas like 5G, internet, and smart cities to assist local traditional industries in upgrading [10]