强于大市 化工行业周报 20250518 基础化工 | 证券研究报告 — 行业周报 2025 年 5 月 20 日 国际油价、 MDI 、涤纶短纤价格上涨，海外天然 气价格下跌 五月份，行业受关税相关政策、原油价格大幅波动等因素影响较大，建议整体均衡配置，关注 自主可控日益关键的电子材料公司，以及分红派息政策稳健的能源企业等。 行业动态 投资建议 风险提示 地缘政治因素变化引起油价大幅波动；全球经济形势出现变化。 相关研究报告 《化工行业周报 20250511》20250512 《化工行业周报 20250505》20250506 《2025 年 4 月中共中央政治局会议化工行业相 关要点及解读》20250505 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 基础化工 证券分析师：余嫄嫄 (8621)20328550 yuanyuan.yu@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300517050002 qiyan.fan@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300525040001 本周（05.12-05.18）均价跟踪的 100 个化工品种中，共有 43 个品 ...

Core Insights - The market consensus remains fragmented despite the easing of US-China tariffs, with various funds showing interest in different sectors such as dividends, themes, large-cap growth, and export chains [1][2] - Active foreign capital has seen a net outflow, while passive foreign capital continues to flow into the A-share market, indicating a structural divergence in foreign investment [3][56] - Industrial capital is providing support to the A-share market, with significant increases in share buybacks compared to the previous year [4][65] Group 1: Fund Allocation and Market Dynamics - Retail investors have shown a preference for defensive dividend stocks, with net inflows into banking and transportation sectors, while experiencing outflows from electronics and machinery [2][11] - Financing funds are focusing on industries with improving fundamentals and thematic catalysts, such as defense and military [2][19] - Private equity funds are concentrating their research on large-cap growth sectors like pharmaceuticals and electronics [2][50] Group 2: Foreign Investment Trends - In the recent period, foreign capital saw a net inflow of 21.8 billion yuan, with active foreign capital experiencing a net outflow of 7.2 billion yuan, while passive foreign capital recorded a net inflow of 29 billion yuan [3][56] - Regional and global allocation-type foreign funds have increased their positions in A-shares, with Asian allocation funds reaching 89% of their levels since 2020 [3][56] Group 3: Industrial Capital and Market Support - The A-share market has faced four consecutive weeks of net outflows from ETFs, totaling 263 billion yuan, with significant support from industrial capital through share buybacks [4][41] - The average weekly buyback amount in 2025 has risen to 68 billion yuan, compared to 43 billion yuan in 2024, indicating a strong trend in corporate buybacks [4][71] Group 4: Fundraising and Market Activity - The number of new equity funds launched has decreased, with only 48 billion yuan in new equity fund shares issued last week, reflecting a decline in fundraising activity [32][33] - The net reduction of significant shareholders in the secondary market amounted to 43 billion yuan, with a weekly unlock market value of 306 billion yuan [65][74]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the micro-cap stock index, indicating a favorable investment environment following regulatory changes [3][13]. Core Insights - The recent modification of the "Major Asset Restructuring Management Measures" by the China Securities Regulatory Commission allows for cross-border mergers and acquisitions, which is seen as a significant positive for micro-cap stocks [3][13]. - The micro-cap stock index has shown strong performance, ranking first among 38 broad indices over the past month with a 12.51% increase and a 68.6% increase over the past year [4][14][24]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of Micro-Cap Stock Index Performance - The micro-cap stock index increased by 1.58% over the past week, ranking 5th among 38 indices [4][14]. - Over the past month, the index rose by 12.51%, ranking 1st [4][19]. - In the last quarter, the index saw a 17.17% increase, also ranking 1st [4][20]. - The annual performance shows a significant increase of 68.6%, ranking 2nd [4][22][24]. 2. Factor Performance of Micro-Cap Stocks - The top-performing factors this week include standardized expected earnings (0.154), leverage (0.127), and quarterly net profit growth (0.102) [5][14][28]. - The bottom-performing factors include momentum (-0.08) and growth factors (-0.032) [5][14][28]. 3. Diffusion Index Observations - The diffusion index remains high but has shown a slight decline, indicating potential sell signals if the trend continues [6][15][33]. - The first threshold method triggered a sell signal on May 8, 2025, while the delayed threshold method provided a buy signal on April 22, 2025 [6][15][36][40]. 4. Calendar Effects - The micro-cap stock index has shown positive average returns on Tuesdays and Thursdays, while Mondays and Wednesdays have negative average returns [7][16]. - The index achieved an 84% win rate in February and a 90% win rate in March and May [7][16]. 5. Micro-Cap Stock Related Fund Performance - The highest-performing micro-cap fund this week yielded 2.79%, while the lowest yielded 0.35% [16][43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry, indicating a positive outlook based on expected economic recovery and demand improvement [1]. Core Insights - The basic chemical industry is expected to see a recovery in profitability, with 2024 revenues projected to reach CNY 2,219.98 billion, a year-on-year increase of 2.66%, while net profit is expected to decline by 8.18% to CNY 108.87 billion [6][26]. - The oil and petrochemical sector is anticipated to maintain stable revenues and profits, with 2024 revenues estimated at CNY 7,941.40 billion, a decrease of 2.81%, and net profit expected to grow by 0.58% to CNY 372.14 billion [1][26]. - The report highlights that 23 out of 33 sub-industries in the basic chemical sector experienced revenue growth in 2024, with significant increases in chlor-alkali and textile chemicals [6][15]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The basic chemical industry is experiencing a decline in profitability, with gross and net profit margins at 16.27% and 5.13%, respectively, both down from 2023 [26]. - The report notes that the industry has been in a continuous decline in profitability from 2022 to 2024, but signs of stabilization are emerging [26]. Sub-Industry Performance - In 2024, chlor-alkali and textile chemicals showed the highest profit growth rates at 262.84% and 125.27%, respectively [15][26]. - Conversely, non-metallic materials and other plastic products faced significant profit declines of 79.24% and 67.49% [15][26]. Quarterly Analysis - For Q4 2024, the basic chemical industry reported revenues of CNY 565.72 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.15%, but a quarter-on-quarter decline of 0.90% [6][7]. - Net profit for Q4 2024 was CNY 14.16 billion, down 10.73% year-on-year and 51.03% quarter-on-quarter [6][7]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies in rapidly developing downstream sectors, particularly in new materials, energy security, and policy-driven demand recovery [1][26]. - Recommended companies include China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil, and various technology firms in the semiconductor and new energy materials sectors [1][26].

2025 年 05 月 18 日 证券研究报告 | 策略周报 关税超预期调降，资金为何转向防御？ 策略周报 分析师：刘芳 分析师登记编码：S0890524100002 电话：021-20321091 邮箱：liufang@cnhbstock.com 相关研究报告 1、《关税窗口期应如何博弈？—策略周 报》2025-05-11 2、《政治局会议临近，应如何布局？— 策略周报》2025-04-20 3、《关税对 A 股哪些行业影响较大？— 策略周报》2025-04-13 4、《关税迷雾叠加美股震荡，资产应如 何配置？—策略周报》2025-03-30 5、《科技主线重燃，二次上行可期 —策 略周报》2025-03-09 投资要点 分析师：郝一凡 【债市方面】短期长端债券面临波动。中美经贸高层会谈达成重要共识，并取 得实质性进展，在一定程度上提振了市场情绪。出口预期修复和风险偏好提振 下，债市长端或面临波动调整压力。不过长期来看，4 月制造业 PMI 回落至荣 枯线下方，出口增速下滑压力尚未完全显现，但关税调整对基本面的影响或逐 步释放，支撑债市避险需求。 销售服务电话： 【股市方面】短期维持震荡，行业轮动加剧。当前 ...

证券研究报告 原油周报：关税政策缓和，国际油价上涨 能源化工首席证券分析师：陈淑娴，CFA 执业证书编号：S0600523020004 联系方式：chensx@dwzq.com.cn 能源化工研究助理：周少玟 执业证书编号：S0600123070007 联系方式：zhoushm@dwzq.com.cn 2025年5月18日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 投资要点 ◼ 【美国原油】 2 4 1. 原油周度数据简报 2. 本周石油石化板块行情回顾 3. 原油板块数据追踪 4. 成品油板块数据追踪 5. 油服板块数据追踪 6. 风险提示 目录 ◼ 1）原油价格：本周Brent/WTI原油期货周均价分别65.5/62.6美元/桶，较上周分别+3.5/+3.5美元/桶。 ◼ 2）原油库存：美国原油总库存、商业原油库存、战略原油库存、库欣原油库存分别8.4/4.4/4.0/0.2亿桶，环比+398/+ 345/+53/-107万桶。 ◼ 3）原油产量：美国原油产量为1339万桶/天，环比+2万桶/天。美国活跃原油钻机本周473台，环比-1台。美国活跃压 裂车队本周193部，环比-2部。 ◼ 4）原油需求：美国炼厂原油 ...

转自：北京日报客户端 多家能源央企在数字化转型中，已取得实质性进展。郭雷、陈掌星、邬江兴、李宁等多位院士、专家带 来20场精彩报告，介绍仿生智能、大模型、工业软件研发以及AI安全等领域最新理论研究与应用成 果，展示运用数智技术培育和发展油气产业新质生产力的广阔前景。 专家认为，目前油气领域垂直模型主要在地震数据、测井曲线、重构补全、预测分析方面做一些工作， 未来将在仿真、开发、管道以及数字煤矿、新能源、制氢、大规模氢储存等得以应用。从地下做到地 上，这将是未来的发展方向。 中国石油石化企业信息技术交流大会是我国石油石化信息技术领域高层次、高水平的科技盛会，已举办 十余届，被中国科协遴选为"重要学术会议"。本届大会设置能源企业CIO论坛、工业互联网论坛、大数 据论坛、人工智能大模型论坛、网络安全论坛、智能油气田论坛等10个专题论坛，4个技术与成果分享 会，并设优秀论文与数智成果展示区。 来源：北京日报客户端 论坛开幕 近年来，在全球范围内以人工智能、大模型为代表的新一代数智技术迅猛发展，正为石油石化等传统行 业转型升级，培育新质生产力提供了难得的机遇。中国石油学会理事长焦方正表示，要以应用场景为牵 引，加快落地 ...

Core Viewpoint - The conference focused on the theme "Digital Intelligence Empowering the Development of New Quality Productivity in the Oil and Petrochemical Industry," emphasizing the role of digital technologies in driving innovation and green transformation in the sector [1][3]. Group 1: Conference Overview - The "2025 China Oil and Petrochemical Enterprises Information Technology Exchange Conference and New Quality Productivity Development Summit Forum" was held in Beijing from May 15 to 16, co-hosted by several major industry organizations [1]. - The event aimed to align with national strategies for developing the digital economy and artificial intelligence, fostering new quality productivity [1][4]. Group 2: Key Participants and Contributions - Notable attendees included leaders from major companies such as China National Petroleum Corporation, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, who discussed the direction and goals for high-quality development supported by digital transformation [3]. - The conference featured presentations from various experts and academicians, showcasing successful practices in digital transformation and the latest research in fields like bionic intelligence and AI safety [3][4]. Group 3: Forums and Discussions - The conference included ten specialized forums covering topics such as industrial internet, big data, and intelligent oil fields, gathering insights from 238 industry experts [4]. - Over 3,600 representatives from the energy sector, including companies, universities, and research institutions, participated in the event, highlighting the collaborative effort towards digital transformation in the oil and gas industry [4]. Group 4: Significance and Future Outlook - The timing of the conference coincided with the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the planning for the "15th Five-Year Plan," making it a pivotal moment for strategic discussions [4]. - The outcomes of the conference are expected to significantly contribute to the advancement of high-level technological self-reliance and the cultivation of new quality productivity in the oil and petrochemical sector [4].

| 汽车 | 865.97 | -1.96 | -0.23 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 机械设备 | 934.52 | -2.09 | -0.22 | | 公用事业 | 423.34 | -2.28 | -0.54 | | 电力设备 | 1262.27 | -3.47 | -0.27 | | 计算机 | 1369.11 | -7.89 | -0.57 | | 非银金融 | 1555.22 | -8.19 | -0.52 | | 电子 | 2128.95 | -9.30 | -0.43 | 注：本文系新闻报道，不构成投资建议，股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 以幅度进行统计，交通运输行业融资余额增幅最高，最新融资余额为338.74亿元，环比增长0.74%，其 次是美容护理、房地产、煤炭行业，环比增幅分别为0.72%、0.50%、0.38%；融资余额环比降幅居前的 行业有家用电器、计算机、公用事业等，最新融资余额分别有252.32亿元、1369.11亿元、423.34亿元， 分别下降0.71%、0.57%、0.54%。（数据宝） 5月15日各行业融资余额环比变动 | 代码 | 最新融资余额 ...

Core Viewpoint - The release of the "Digital Talent Development White Paper for the Oil and Petrochemical Industry" marks a significant step in promoting digital talent development within the industry, emphasizing the need for a structured approach to address the digital transformation challenges faced by companies [1][3][7]. Group 1: White Paper Overview - The white paper was jointly developed by the China Petroleum Society's Petroleum Technology Equipment Professional Committee and Huawei, with insights from nearly 200 leaders and experts in the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. - The initiative to create the white paper began in August 2024, involving extensive research and interviews with over 100 oil and petrochemical companies and more than 300 mid-to-senior management and IT experts [3]. Group 2: Digital Talent Development Framework - A four-dimensional framework for digital talent development was proposed, consisting of "planning talent - cultivating talent - attracting talent - thriving ecosystem" [3]. - The white paper introduces innovative models such as the "Oil Drop Model" and "A-type Well Frame," along with a "triangular agile team model," to guide the digital transformation management teams and HR departments in the industry [3][4]. Group 3: Key Findings and Recommendations - Building a digital talent development system is identified as a "key key" for workforce development, necessitating alignment with corporate digital transformation strategies [3]. - The report highlights the importance of cultivating composite business talents, with the "Oil Drop Model" emphasizing a structure where digital business talents are central, supported by management and technical talents [4]. Group 4: AI Talent Development - The white paper advocates for the cultivation of AI application talents to drive innovation in the industry, leveraging the "five transformations" strategy (professionalization, composite, scenario-based, continuous, and ecological) [7]. - Industry experts recognize the white paper as a milestone in advancing the digital transformation of the oil and petrochemical sector, providing essential guidance and pathways for talent development [7].