Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene, Polyolefins, Styrene, PTA, Short Fiber, Bottle Chip, Methanol, Urea, PVC, and Glass are rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Pure Benzene is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Ethylene Glycol is rated ☆☆☆, meaning a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Caustic Soda is rated ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. - Soda Ash is rated ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities currently [1]. Report's Core View - In the chemical industry, different products present diverse market conditions. Some products have positive short - term trends but face long - term supply - demand imbalances, while others are affected by factors such as weather, downstream demand, and production capacity changes [2][3][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures rose slightly. Supply is increasing, but lower prices led to better low - price sales. Polyolefins futures also rose slightly. Polyethylene has inventory pressure, and polypropylene's supply is still ample despite some improvement in the packaging sector [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded slightly. Its weekly production decreased, and port inventory declined, but high import expectations and poor downstream profits weakened the outlook. Styrene futures rose slightly but remained below the 5 - day moving average, with sufficient supply and weak demand [3]. Polyester - PX's strong supply - demand expectations weakened, but an oil price rebound drove up PX and PTA prices. PTA's profitability is poor. Ethylene glycol prices fell, with weak expectations. Short - fiber new capacity is limited, and demand is improving. Bottle - chip production was affected by typhoons, but long - term over - capacity is a concern [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol stopped falling. Port unloading was slow, and MTO plant operations increased, leading to port de - stocking. However, high port inventory limited price increases. Urea prices rose, but supply still exceeded demand, and the export window is closing [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC's supply - demand is loose, with high inventory. It may show a weak and volatile trend. Caustic soda has a weak current situation but strong future expectations, and the 2510 - 2601 spread may widen [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash rose with glass. Soda ash production is expected to increase, and long - term supply is excessive. Glass prices rose due to industry meetings and planned price hikes. In the short - term, it may be strong, but long - term trends depend on capacity reduction [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro sentiment has bottomed out and warmed up, with EG showing a slight rebound. The short - term downward space of ethylene glycol is limited, and if there are unexpected drivers in the supply side or macro aspects, the upward price will be more elastic. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4150 - 4350, and breakthrough depends on cost and macro drivers. In operation, due to short - term over - decline under sentiment suppression, the price has support, and it is advisable to moderately sell out - of - the - money put options [3]. 3. Content Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyester Price Forecast - The monthly price forecast for ethylene glycol is 4150 - 4450, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 8.95% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 1.1%. For PX, it is 6300 - 7000, with a volatility of 10.94% and a percentile of 7.6%. For PTA, it is 4400 - 5000, with a volatility of 9.97% and a percentile of 6.9%. For bottle chips, it is 5500 - 6100, with a volatility of 7.49% and a percentile of 1.2% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategies - **Inventory Management**: When the finished - product inventory of ethylene glycol is high and there are concerns about price drops, for long - position spot exposure, one can short EG2601 futures (25% hedging ratio, entry range 4320 - 4420) to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy EG2601P4100 put options (50% hedging ratio, entry range 20 - 30) to prevent large price drops and sell EG2601C4500 call options (50 - 80) to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the procurement of regular inventory is low and one wants to purchase according to orders, for short - position spot exposure, buy EG2601 futures (50% hedging ratio, entry range 4180 - 4250) to lock in procurement costs. Sell EG2601P4100 put options (75% hedging ratio, entry range 50 - 80) to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradictions - Ethylene glycol has insufficient fundamental drivers recently. Under the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation after October, it has become a concentrated short - allocation target. With new production capacity coming online, the inventory accumulation expectation in the fourth quarter has advanced and expanded, and the valuation is further pressured. Currently, the inventory accumulation expectation has been mostly priced in, and it is not recommended to continue shorting before its realization. The supply side has little room for unexpected increases, lacking supply elasticity. Considering low inventory, low valuation, and lack of supply elasticity, the short - term downward space is limited, while the upward price has more elasticity if there are unexpected drivers [3]. 利多解读 (Positive Factors) - The increase in thermal coal prices has compressed the profit of marginal coal - based ethylene glycol plants to below the cost line, strengthening cost support. A 750,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Malaysia has shut down due to technical issues, and the restart time is undetermined, which may lead to additional import reduction in October [4]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors) - A 400,000 - ton/year ethylene glycol plant in Fujian plans to shut down for about two weeks in October (unplanned). The 200,000 - ton ethylene glycol plant of Ningxia Kunpeng plans to start trial production at the end of October, and attention should be paid to the production progress [6]. Polyester Daily Data - The report provides price data of various polyester products such as Brent crude oil, naphtha, toluene, PX, PTA, EG, and polyester fibers on September 24, 2025, along with their day - on - day and week - on - week changes, as well as data on spreads, processing fees, and production and sales rates [8][9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Domestic PTA plants are gradually resuming operations, leading to an increase in domestic PTA production and a rapid decline in PTA basis. Hengli's concentrated sales have significantly pressured the market. OPEC+ has increased oil production again, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. The spread between PX and naphtha has narrowed. Recently, sales and production have weakened, and inventories have risen. Especially with the approaching off - season, the polyester operating load has rebounded to 91%. However, due to the decline in crude oil prices and the weakening of the basis, PTA has shown weakness [2] Group 3: Summary of Specific Indicators 1. Price Changes - PTA spot price decreased from 4510 to 4470, a change of - 40 [2] - MEG inner - market price decreased from 4344 to 4297, a change of - 47 [2] - PTA closing price decreased from 4586 to 4556, a change of - 30 [2] - MEG closing price decreased from 4240 to 4212, a change of - 28 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6470 to 6440, a change of - 30 [2] - Polyester staple fiber basis increased from 122 to 149, a change of 27 [2] - 10 - 11 spread increased from 2 to 4, a change of 2 [2] - Polyester staple fiber cash flow increased from 240 to 246, a change of 6 [2] - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber price remained unchanged at 5625 [2] - The spread between 1.4D direct - spinning and imitation large - chemical fiber decreased from 845 to 815, a change of - 30 [2] - East China water bottle chip price decreased from 5785 to 5757, a change of - 28 [2] - Hot - filling polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5785 to 5757, a change of - 28 [2] - Carbonated - grade polyester bottle chip price decreased from 5885 to 5857, a change of - 28 [2] - Outer - market water bottle chip price decreased from 760 to 755, a change of - 5 [2] - Bottle chip spot processing fee increased from 474 to 496, a change of 21.94 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn price remained unchanged at 10270 [2] - T32S pure polyester yarn processing fee increased from 3800 to 3830, a change of 30 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn 65/35 45S price remained unchanged at 16250 [2] - Cotton 328 price decreased from 14795 to 14755, a change of - 40 [2] - Polyester - cotton yarn profit increased from 1368 to 1403, a change of 35.01 [2] - Primary three - dimensional hollow (with silicon) price remained unchanged at 7050 [2] - Hollow staple fiber 6 - 15D cash flow increased from 539 to 589, a change of 49.94 [2] - Primary low - melting - point staple fiber price remained unchanged at 7430 [2] 2. Market Conditions - Polyester staple fiber: The price of polyester staple fiber production plants was stalemate, while the price of traders slightly decreased. Downstream buyers purchased according to demand, and the on - site transactions were differentiated. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - glossy natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber in the East China market was 6230 - 6550 yuan/ton in cash on the spot, 6350 - 6670 yuan/ton in cash delivered in the North China market, and 6230 - 6450 yuan/ton in cash delivered in the Fujian market [2] - Polyester bottle chip: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5700 - 5820 yuan/ton, with the average price dropping 35 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day. Polyester raw materials and bottle chip futures were weakly operating. The supply - side quotations were adjusted downward, and downstream end - users replenished stocks on a rigid basis. The market negotiation atmosphere was acceptable, and the price center of bottle chips declined today [2] 3. Operating Load and Sales - to - Production Ratio - Direct - spinning staple fiber load (weekly) changed from 93.90% to 94.40%, a change of 0.01 [3] - Polyester staple fiber sales - to - production ratio increased from - 22.00% to 30.00%, a change of 52.00% [3] - Polyester yarn startup rate (weekly) remained unchanged at 63.50% [3] - Regenerated cotton - type load index (weekly) changed from 51.00% to 51.50%, a change of 0.01 [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: Recent PP production decline due to losses in PDH and external propylene routes, leading to unplanned maintenance and inventory reduction. PE maintenance has reached a peak, with increasing开工 and de - stocking of mid - upstream inventory this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and future supply rhythm and import offers need attention. Currently, the 01 contract faces significant inventory accumulation pressure, limiting upward space [2]. Methanol Industry - The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. Coastal inventory has reached a record high, weakening market sentiment and prices, with a slight weakening of the basis. On the supply - demand side, inland supply is at a high level year - on - year. Although unplanned maintenance has increased recently, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inland inventory pattern is relatively healthy, providing some support for prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season of downstream industries. Port arrivals are still high, with large inventory accumulation and weakening transactions. Overall valuation is neutral. The market is oscillating between high - inventory reality, weak basis, and overseas gas - restriction expectations in the future. Attention should be paid to the inventory inflection point [4]. Styrene Industry - Pure benzene: Recently, some plants have restarted or produced products, and maintenance plans have been postponed, keeping supply at a relatively high level. On the demand side, most downstream products are in a loss state, and the secondary - downstream inventory of some products is high. There are planned and unplanned production cuts in styrene plants from September to October, weakening demand support. The supply - demand outlook for pure benzene in September remains loose, with weak price drivers. In the short term, price trends are affected by geopolitical and macro factors. - Styrene: Driven by peak - season demand and pre - National - Day stocking of some factories, overall demand is okay but with limited growth. On the supply side, due to inventory and profit pressure, more plants have stopped or reduced production, and some have cut production due to accidents. With overseas plant maintenance, styrene export expectations have increased, reducing supply expectations. Port inventory has accumulated, pressuring styrene prices. In the short term, styrene may be affected by oil - price geopolitical situations and reduced concerns about supply increments. Strategies include short - selling on price rebounds for EB11 and widening the EB11 - BZ11 spread at low levels, but the driving force is limited [13]. Crude Oil Industry - Overnight oil prices rose. The main trading logic is that market concerns about immediate supply surplus have eased, and geopolitical risk premiums have resurfaced. Specifically, the deadlock in the oil - export agreement in the Kurdistan region of Iraq has dispelled the expectation of about 230,000 barrels per day of new supply, triggering a key rebound after the previous oil - price decline and supporting the near - month spread. Meanwhile, Ukraine's attack on Russian refineries and NATO's tough stance have increased the risk of supply disruption of Russian refined products such as diesel, pushing up the crack spread and supporting crude oil from both sentiment and cost aspects. Overall, although macro - level reports such as those from the International Energy Agency still point to a loose supply situation, short - term geopolitical factors have become the main pricing factor in the market, temporarily overriding the bearish expectation of potential increases in US crude - oil inventory. In the short term, oil prices are expected to trade in a range. It is recommended to conduct band - trading on a single - side basis, with the WTI trading range at [60, 66], Brent at [64, 69], and SC at [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to widen the spread after volatility increases [32]. Urea Industry - Urea futures prices have been weakly oscillating recently. The main logic is sufficient supply and insufficient demand support. Specifically, the daily industry output remains above 200,000 tons, and new production capacity is about to be released, increasing supply pressure. Agricultural demand has entered the off - season, and industrial demand has weakened due to the decline in compound - fertilizer plant开工. Although there are some export - port - collection orders, the overall impact is limited. Market confidence is lacking, and continuous inventory accumulation further suppresses the futures price, lacking substantial positive drivers [37]. Polyester Industry - PX: Recent increases in PX supply are obvious due to the capacity increase from short - process production at home and abroad and the postponement of maintenance of some domestic PX plants. On the demand side, due to low PTA processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. The supply - demand outlook for PX in the fourth quarter is expected to weaken further, with an expected compression of the PXN spread. In terms of absolute price, the attack on Russian oil - distribution facilities by Ukraine has boosted short - term oil prices, which may support PX in the short term. Strategies include short - term long - positions on PX11 or short - selling on price rebounds. - PTA: Due to low processing fees, new PTA plant commissioning has been delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans, reducing supply expectations. However, the peak - season performance of downstream industries is average, and the spot basis of PTA has been weakly running. In terms of absolute price, short - term oil - price increases may support PTA. Strategies include short - term long - positions or short - selling on price rebounds for TA, and a rolling reverse - spread strategy for TA1 - 5. - Ethylene glycol: Supply - demand is gradually weakening. In the short term, ethylene - glycol imports in September are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decrease this month, keeping port inventory at a low level. However, the terminal market is currently weak, and the basis is oscillating at a high level. In the long term, the supply - demand outlook for ethylene glycol in the fourth quarter is weak, as the Yulong Petrochemical plant has increased its load to 60% - 70%, the Satellite Petrochemical plant will restart in October, and demand will decline seasonally in the fourth quarter. Ethylene glycol will enter an inventory - accumulation phase, facing upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the progress of plant commissioning and restart. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 on price increases and a reverse - spread strategy for EG1 - 5. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. Recently, short - fiber supply has remained high. On the demand side, although it is the peak - season of "Golden September and Silver October" and downstream industries have restocking demand before the National Day, new orders for gray fabrics are limited, and this year's peak - season performance is average. Short - fiber prices are supported at low levels, but the upward - rebound driving force is weak, and the price movement follows raw - material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 800 - 1100 yuan/ton, with limited upward and downward driving forces. - Bottle - grade polyester chips: Recently, some bottle - grade polyester chip plants have restarted while others have stopped production, with overall production capacity remaining basically unchanged. As the price has dropped to the lowest level of the year and there is rigid restocking demand before the National Day, downstream industries and traders are replenishing inventory at low prices, supporting the absolute price and processing fee of bottle - grade polyester chips and reducing inventory. However, the supply - demand situation remains loose. PR prices follow the cost - end fluctuations, and the upward space of the processing fee is limited. Attention should be paid to whether there will be more production cuts in bottle - grade polyester chip plants and the downstream follow - up situation. Strategies are the same as for PTA on a single - side basis. The processing fee of the PR main - contract on the futures market is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [40][41]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: The futures price continued to weaken yesterday. Supply has increased this week, and the开工 rate of sample enterprises has increased. On the downstream side, recent continuous declines in domestic and overseas alumina prices have narrowed the profit margin of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Affected by the decline in the purchase price of the main downstream in Shandong and cautious downstream purchasing, inventory in the North China region has increased. In the East China region, enterprises with maintenance and load - reduction devices have not yet resumed, resulting in tight supply. Non - aluminum demand has followed up as a rigid need, and inventory has decreased. This week, in the Shandong market, due to the approaching National Day holiday, it will take time to release short - term local caustic - soda inventory. With the current high - level supply and poor sales in the main downstream, there is a possibility of further price cuts. Previously, short - selling was recommended, and short positions can be held. - PVC: The futures price weakened yesterday, and the supply - demand contradiction in the fundamentals is still difficult to resolve. On the supply side, many plants will end maintenance next week, with expected production increases. On the demand side, the开工 rate of downstream products has increased limitedly, and some have completed inventory replenishment, being resistant to high prices and having average purchasing enthusiasm. On the cost side, the price of raw - material calcium carbide has been rising, and the ethylene price has remained stable, providing bottom - level support for costs. It is expected that PVC will stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Attention should be paid to the downstream demand performance [45]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 futures prices all declined on September 23 compared to September 22. The price difference between L2509 - 2601 decreased by 11.11%, while that of PP2509 - 2601 increased by 17.95%. Spot prices of some products also changed, such as a 0.28% decline in the price of North China LDPE film stock [2]. - **开工 and Inventory**: PE plant开工 rate increased by 2.97% to 80.4%, and downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.78% to 42.9%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 5.57% to 45.1 tons, and social inventory decreased by 2.45% to 54.7 tons. PP plant开工 rate decreased by 2.5% to 74.9%, while PP powder开工 rate increased by 4.1% to 37.5%. Downstream weighted开工 rate increased by 1.2% to 51.5%. PP enterprise inventory increased by 8.06% to 58.2 tons, and trader inventory increased by 14.74% to 19.3 tons [2]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, MA2601 futures price decreased by 0.21%, and MA2509 increased by 0.17%. The MA91 spread decreased by 60.00%. Spot prices of different regions showed different changes, such as a 0.73% increase in the price of Inner Mongolia's north - line spot and a 0.44% decrease in the price of Taicang port spot [4]. - **Inventory**: Methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 0.61% to 34.048 tons, port inventory increased by 0.48% to 155.8 tons, and social inventory increased by 0.28% to 189.8 tons [4]. - **开工 Rates**: The domestic upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased slightly by 0.12% to 72.66%, and the overseas upstream enterprise开工 rate decreased by 4.94% to 68.6%. The downstream external - MTO device开工 rate increased by 8.72% to 75.08%, while the fatty - acid开工 rate decreased by 3.41% to 82.3% [4]. Styrene Industry - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, Brent crude oil (November) increased by 1.6%, and WTI crude oil (October) increased by 1.2%. CFR Japan naphtha increased by 0.4%, while CFR China pure benzene decreased by 0.7%. The pure - benzene - naphtha spread decreased by 5.6%, and the ethylene - naphtha spread decreased by 1.0% [9]. - **Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads**: The latest styrene spot price in East China decreased by 1.0%. EB2510, EB2511 futures prices also declined. The EB basis (10) increased by 33.3%, and the EB10 - EB11 spread increased by 112.5%. EB non - integrated and integrated cash flows both decreased [10]. - **Inventory**: Pure - benzene inventory in Jiangsu ports decreased by 20.1% to 10.70 tons from September 15 to September 22, while styrene inventory in Jiangsu ports increased by 17.3% to 18.65 tons [12]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian pure - benzene开工 rate remained unchanged at 79.0%. The domestic pure - benzene开工 rate decreased by 1.2% to 78.4%, while the domestic hydrogenated - benzene开工 rate increased by 9.1% to 59.6%. The styrene开工 rate decreased by 2.1% to 73.4% [13]. Crude Oil Industry - **Crude Oil Prices and Spreads**: On September 24, Brent increased by 1.59% to 67.63 dollars/barrel, WTI decreased by 0.54% to 63.15 dollars/barrel, and SC decreased by 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. The Brent M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.82%, the WTI M1 - M3 spread decreased by 49.65%, and the SC M1 - M3 spread decreased by 33.33% [32]. - **Refined - Product Prices and Spreads**: NYM RBOB increased by 0.46% to 200.82 cents/gallon, NYM ULSD increased by 0.85% to 234.78 cents/gallon, and ICE Gasoil increased by 2.43% to 705.75 dollars/ton. The RBOB M1 - M3 spread decreased by 27.94%, the ULSD M1 - M3 spread decreased by 130.40%, and the Gasoil M1 - M3 spread decreased by 44.95% [32]. - **Refined - Product Crack Spreads**: The crack spreads of various refined products showed different changes. For example, the US gasoline crack spread increased by 1.10%, while the European diesel crack spread decreased by 0.90% [32]. Urea Industry - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: On September 23, the 01 - contract futures price of urea decreased by 0.12%, and the 05 - contract remained unchanged. The price difference between the 01 - contract and 05 - contract decreased by 3.77% [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic daily urea production increased by 1.82% to 19.56 tons on September 19 compared to September 18. The weekly domestic urea production increased by 2.36% to 133.00 tons, and the weekly domestic urea plant - inventory increased by 2.88% to 113.27 tons [37]. Polyester Industry - **Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows**: On September 23, the prices of POY150/48, FDY150/96, and other polyester products changed. POY150/48 cash flow increased by 134.9%, while FDY150/96 cash flow decreased by 19.3% [40]. - **PX - Related Prices and Spreads**: CFR China PX decreased by 0.6% on September 23. The PX basis (11) decreased by 57.7%, and the PX - naphtha spread decreased by 3.3% [40]. - **开工 Rates**: The Asian PX开工 rate decreased by 0.8% to 78.2%, the Chinese PX开工 rate decreased by 1.5% to 86.3%, and the PTA开工 rate remained unchanged at 76.8% [40]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **PVC and Caustic - Soda Spot & Futures**: On September 23, the prices of Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) remained unchanged, while Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda (converted to 100%) increased by 2.4%. The market price of East China calcium - carbide - based PVC decreased by 0.8% [45]. - **Caustic - Soda Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The FOB price of East China ports increased by 1.3% to 400 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit increased by 3723.4% to 223.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **PVC Overseas Quotes & Export Profits**: The CFR Southeast Asia PVC price remained unchanged at 650 dollars/ton on September 18 compared to September 11, and the export profit decreased by 266.4% to - 22.4 yuan/ton [45]. - **Supply:

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Acrylonitrile: ★★★ (Three stars represent a clearer long/short trend, and there is still a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently) [1] - Plastic: ★★★ [1] - Pure Benzene: ★★★ [1] - Styrene: ★★★ [1] - PX: ★★★ [1] - PTA: ★★★ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★★★ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ★★☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ★★★ [1] - PVC: ★★★ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★★★ [1] - Soda Ash: ★☆☆ (One star represents a bullish/bearish bias, indicating a driving force for price increase/decrease, but the market is not very operable) [1] - Glass: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The futures of olefins and polyolefins continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern acrylonitrile plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. The demand for raw material replenishment by terminal enterprises and the release of upstream production capacity are in a multi - short game, showing a weakening trend. The supply of polyolefins is expected to increase, while the demand support is limited [2]. - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market. The supply, demand, and inventory of styrene are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase. The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure. The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price [7]. Summaries by Categories Olefins - Polyolefins - Acrylonitrile futures continued to decline. The supply pressure from the restart of northern plants is emerging, and the market sentiment is bearish. There is a multi - short game between terminal demand and upstream production capacity release, showing a weakening trend [2]. - Polyolefin futures continued to decline. The supply of polyethylene is expected to increase, and the demand support is limited. The supply of polypropylene is also expected to increase, while the demand is weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - The price of pure benzene continued to fall, with a slight narrowing of the decline in East China. The actual fundamentals are okay, but the high expected import volume and poor profits of downstream products drag down the market [3]. - Styrene futures declined. The supply, demand, and inventory are expected to increase, but the supply increase is greater than the demand increase, so the price trend is weak [3]. Polyester - The supply - demand strong expectation of PX is weakened, and the valuation is under pressure. The processing margin and basis of PTA have been repaired, but the industry profit is still poor. Pay attention to the possibility of polyester inventory reduction due to downstream stocking [4]. - The price of ethylene glycol has been falling, with weak expectations. The short - fiber price has followed the raw materials and the external sentiment to decline, and the near - month contract can be allocated bullishly. The bottle - chip industry has over - capacity, and the expected processing margin repair space is limited [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - The methanol futures hit a new low. The high port inventory and the expectation of continuous inventory accumulation suppress the price increase [5]. - The urea market is in a situation of oversupply and may continue to be under pressure [5]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - The PVC price followed the macro sentiment to decline, with a loose supply - demand pattern and high inventory pressure [6]. - The caustic soda price dropped sharply, with a weak current situation and a strong future expectation [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - The soda ash industry is in a situation of oversupply, and the price is falling. Look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [7]. - The glass market has a pattern of high supply and weak demand, with a high - level decline in price. Wait and see before the festival and look for opportunities to go long near the cost later [7].

Group 1: Report's Core View - Demand decline may cause polyester raw material prices to continue facing downward pressure [1] - If supply increases continuously while demand fails to rise steadily, polyester industry chain prices may continue to decline; if demand improves significantly, the prices may stabilize and rebound [4] Group 2: Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On September 22, the PX main contract closed at 6,592.0 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -17.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,586.0 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -26.0 yuan/ton [2] - On September 22, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.05 dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 62.36 dollars/barrel [2] - On September 22, the total transaction volume of China Textile City was 727.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 760.53 million meters [2] - Due to insufficient information on PX and PTA device operation rates and changes, it's hard to judge future price trends from the supply side [2] - The lower total transaction volume in China Textile City than the 15 - day average indicates a decline in textile market demand, which may reduce the demand for PTA and indirectly affect PX demand, putting downward pressure on their prices [2] Polyester - On September 22, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,274.0 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,425.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of 151.0 yuan/ton [4] - From September 12 - 22, the trading volume (MA15) of China Textile City fluctuated between 692.8 million meters and 760.53 million meters, indicating unstable demand [4] - On September 18, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber were 4.9589473684 days, polyester filament (POY) 20.3972200772 days, polyester filament (FDY) 22.187065637 days, and polyester filament (DTY) 28.4208494208 days [4] Group 3: Industrial Chain Price Monitoring PX - On September 22, the main contract price of PX futures was 6,592 yuan/ton, down 0.03% from September 19; the trading volume decreased by 28.37%, and the open interest decreased by 4.88% [5] - The CFR price at the main Chinese port and the FOB price in South Korea of PX spot remained unchanged from September 19 [5] - The PX basis increased by 10.53% from September 19 [5] PTA - On September 22, the main contract price of PTA futures was 4,586 yuan/ton, down 0.39% from September 19; the trading volume decreased by 23.41%, and the open interest increased by 3.74% [5] - The CFR price at the main Chinese port of PTA spot remained unchanged from September 19 [5] - The PTA basis increased by 40.91% from September 19; the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread changed by 4.55%, 5.88%, and - 5.13% respectively [5] - The PTA import profit increased by 0.21% from September 19 [5] Short - fiber - On September 22, the main contract price of short - fiber futures was 6,274 yuan/ton, down 0.16% from September 19; the trading volume decreased by 7.11%, and the open interest increased by 1.92% [5] - The spot price in the East China market of short - fiber remained unchanged from September 19 [5] - The PF basis increased by 7.09% from September 19; the 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread changed by 18.75%, 47.50%, and - 31.82% respectively [5] Other Products - The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged from September 19; the price of polyester bottle chips decreased by 0.52% [5] - The processing spreads of naphtha, PX, polyester chips, polyester short - fiber, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged from September 19; the PTA processing spread increased by 0.93%, and the polyester bottle - chip processing spread decreased by 7.57% [6] - On September 22, the total trading volume of China Textile City decreased by 24.43% from September 19; the trading volumes of long - fiber and short - fiber fabrics decreased by 23.00% and 29.29% respectively [6] - The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged from September 19 [6] - From September 11 to 18, the inventory days of polyester staple fiber decreased by 0.28%, while those of polyester filament (POY), (FDY), and (DTY) increased by 6.74%, 4.35%, and 1.29% respectively [6] Group 4: Industry Dynamics and Interpretations Macroeconomic Dynamics - On September 22, Citigroup expected the gold bull market to continue in the short term and raised the 3 - month target price to 3,800 dollars/ounce [7] - On September 22, the Chief Justice of the United States asked Federal Reserve Governor Cook to respond to Trump by September 25 [7] - On September 22, Federal Reserve Governor Milan thought that interest rates would continue to be cut in the next few months and would try to persuade other policymakers to cut rates faster; Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari believed that two more rate cuts this year were appropriate [7] - On September 22, the European Commission passed the 19th sanctions package against Russia, lowering the crude oil price cap to 47.6 dollars per barrel and proposing to ban the import of Russian LNG on January 1, 2027, one year earlier than the original plan [7] - On September 22, European Central Bank President Lagarde said that the ECB had reached its inflation target but uncertainties remained; ECB Governing Council members Scicluna and Stournaras believed that the current interest rate level was appropriate [7] - On September 22, the People's Bank of China adjusted the 14 - day reverse repurchase operation in the open market to fixed - quantity, interest - rate tender, and multiple - price winning bids starting from the 19th [7] - On September 19, the Hong Kong police arrested 13 people in a gold theft case and recovered all the stolen gold worth 50 million Hong Kong dollars [7] Supply and Demand - Demand - On September 22, the total trading volume of China Textile City was 727.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 24.43%, with 586.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 140.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [8] Group 5: Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on PX and PTA futures, spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, futures spreads, processing profits, industry load rates, polyester product sales and inventory days, and China Textile City trading volume moving average [9][11][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Polyester Industry Chain - PX: The supply increment is obvious due to short - process losses and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. The supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter is weak, and PXN is expected to compress. Suggest to treat PX11's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 6500 [2]. - PTA: Supply is expected to shrink due to low processing fees and postponed new plant commissioning. However, demand growth is limited, and the basis is weakly volatile. Suggest to treat TA's rebound with a short - bias and focus on the support around 4500; conduct a rolling reverse spread on TA1 - 5 [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Supply - demand is gradually weakening. It will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter. Suggest to sell call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and conduct a reverse spread on EG1 - 5 [2]. - Short - fiber: The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak. It has support at low levels but weak rebound drivers. The strategy is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk fluctuates between 800 - 1000 [2]. - Bottle chips: The supply - demand is loose. PR follows the cost side. Suggest that the strategy for PR is the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the main disk is expected to fluctuate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic Soda: The market in Shandong may see price cuts in the short - term. It can be shorted in the short - term [29]. - PVC: The market is weakly volatile. Supply is expected to increase next week, and demand growth is limited. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the peak season from September to October. Pay attention to downstream demand [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - Pure Benzene: Supply remains at a relatively high level, and demand support is weak. In the short - term, the price is affected by geopolitical and macro factors. Suggest that BZ2603 follows the fluctuations of styrene and crude oil [31]. - Styrene: Demand is fair but with limited growth. Supply is expected to decrease. The absolute price is under pressure. Suggest to treat EB11's rebound with a short - bias and expand the spread between EB11 and BZ11 at low levels [31]. Urea Industry - Urea: The futures price is weakly running due to the contradiction between high supply and weak demand. The supply - demand pattern is likely to remain weak in the future. The price may continue to be under pressure, but it may form a bottom support near the production cost [39]. Polyolefin Industry - LLDPE and PP: PP production has decreased recently, and PE inventory has been destocked. The 01 contract may face large inventory accumulation pressure, limiting the upside space [43]. Methanol Industry - Methanol: The market is trading high inventory and fast Iranian shipments. The price is weakening, and the basis is slightly weakening. The overall valuation is neutral. Pay attention to the inventory inflection point [46]. Crude Oil Industry - Crude Oil: The overnight oil price fell due to concerns about supply surplus outweighing geopolitical risk premiums. The fundamental outlook is bearish. Suggest to wait and see on the single - side trading, and look for opportunities to expand the spread on the option side after the volatility increases [52]. 3. Summaries Based on Relevant Catalogs Polyester Industry Chain - **Prices and Cash Flows**: Most downstream polyester product prices and cash flows decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. Upstream prices such as Brent crude oil, CFR Japan naphtha also declined [2]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Asian and Chinese PX开工率 decreased. PTA supply is expected to shrink, and MEG will enter the inventory accumulation phase in the fourth quarter [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The开工率 of most segments in the polyester industry chain decreased or remained stable on a weekly basis [2]. Chlor - alkali Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda futures and spot showed minor changes. The export profit of caustic soda increased slightly, while that of PVC decreased [29]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The开工率 of the caustic soda and PVC industries decreased. The inventory of caustic soda in North China increased, while that in East China decreased. PVC total social inventory increased slightly [29]. - **Downstream Demand**: The开工率 of caustic soda's downstream industries such as alumina and viscose staple fiber increased, while that of PVC's downstream products such as pipes and profiles showed minor changes [29]. Pure Benzene and Styrene Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most prices of pure benzene, styrene, and their downstream products decreased on September 22 compared to September 19. The cash flows of some downstream products improved [31]. - **Inventory and开工率**: Pure benzene's Jiangsu port inventory decreased, while styrene's increased. The开工率 of some segments in the industry chain changed slightly [31]. Urea Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Futures and spot prices of urea decreased. The basis in some regions changed significantly [39]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: Domestic urea production increased, and the inventory in factories increased while that in ports decreased. The order days of production enterprises decreased [39]. - **Downstream Demand**: The demand from agriculture and industry remained weak, and the开工率 of compound fertilizer enterprises declined [39]. Polyolefin Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PE and PP futures and spot decreased. The basis of PE and PP changed slightly [43]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: PP production decreased due to losses in some production routes, and PE inventory was destocked. The 01 contract may face inventory accumulation pressure [43]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The PE装置开工率 increased, while the PP装置开工率 decreased. The downstream weighted开工率 of PE and PP increased slightly [43]. Methanol Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Methanol futures and spot prices decreased. The basis and regional spreads changed [46]. - **Supply - demand and Inventory**: The domestic and overseas开工率 of methanol enterprises changed slightly. The inventory in ports increased, and the overall social inventory increased slightly [46]. - **Industry Chain开工率**: The upstream - domestic and overseas企业开工率 of methanol decreased slightly, while the downstream - MTO装置开工率 increased [46]. Crude Oil Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Crude oil and refined oil prices showed minor changes on September 23 compared to September 22. The spreads between different crude oil varieties and refined oil products also changed [52]. - **Supply - demand**: Supply increased due to Iraq's increased exports and planned pipeline resumption. Demand is under pressure due to economic concerns and seasonal decline [52].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report, covering energy (crude oil, LPG), polyolefins (PP, PVC, etc.), polyesters (PX, PTA, etc.), alkali chemicals (caustic soda, soda ash), and other energy and chemical products [3]. - The recommended strategy is to construct an option portfolio strategy mainly as a seller, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - Crude oil (SC2511) latest price is 478, down 7, a decline of 1.38%, with a trading volume of 9.61 million lots and an open interest of 3.53 million lots [4]. - LPG (PG2511) latest price is 4,259, down 34, a decline of 0.79%, with a trading volume of 9.06 million lots and an open interest of 8.12 million lots [4]. - Other varieties such as methanol, ethylene glycol, etc., also have corresponding price, trading volume, and open - interest data [4]. Group 3: Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - For crude oil options, the volume PCR is 0.83, down 0.11, and the open - interest PCR is 0.88, down 0.15 [5]. - For LPG options, the volume PCR is 1.83, up 0.62, and the open - interest PCR is 0.79, down 0.03 [5]. Group 4: Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure level for crude oil is 570 and the support level is 480 [6]. - The pressure level for LPG is 4,500 and the support level is 4,200 [6]. Group 5: Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil options is 30.57%, and the weighted implied volatility is 33.81%, up 0.83 [7]. - The at - the - money implied volatility of LPG options is 17.815%, and the weighted implied volatility is 19.67%, down 0.13 [7]. Group 6: Option Strategies and Recommendations Energy - related Options (Crude Oil) - Fundamental analysis: OPEC plans to discuss early release of 1.6 million barrels per day of production cuts, and Russia has production cut plans from July to December and supports extending the gasoline export ban until November [8]. - Market analysis: Crude oil has shown a bearish market trend since July, with weak fluctuations in September [8]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates around the mean, open - interest PCR above 1.00 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 570 and 480 respectively [8]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [8]. Energy - related Options (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: PDH plant maintenance is stable, but profit decline may lead to a decrease in capacity utilization [9][10]. - Market analysis: LPG has shown an oversold rebound market trend with pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped significantly to around the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 4,500 and 4,200 respectively [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. Alcohol - related Options (Methanol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is at a new high, and enterprise inventory and orders have changed [10]. - Market analysis: Methanol has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped and fluctuates below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a weak sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 2,400 and 2,250 respectively [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. Alcohol - related Options (Ethylene Glycol) - Fundamental analysis: Port inventory is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term and may enter a stocking cycle later [11]. - Market analysis: Ethylene glycol has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [11]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.60 indicates strong bearish power, and the pressure and support levels are 4,500 and 4,250 respectively [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [11]. Polyolefin - related Options - Fundamental analysis: PE and PP inventory levels have changed, with PP having higher inventory pressure [12]. - Market analysis: Polypropylene has shown a weak market trend with pressure above [12]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has dropped to below the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.80 indicates a weakening trend, and the pressure and support levels are 7,400 and 6,700 respectively [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [12]. Rubber - related Options - Fundamental analysis: Affected by the rubber tapping season in Southeast Asia and increased overseas supply expectations, the global rubber futures market has continued to decline [13]. - Market analysis: Rubber has shown a weak sideways market trend with support below and pressure above [13]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility has risen sharply and then dropped to around the mean, open - interest PCR below 0.60, and the pressure and support levels are 17,000 and 14,000 respectively [13]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [13]. Polyester - related Options (PTA) - Fundamental analysis: PTA social inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to maintain a de - stocking pattern [13]. - Market analysis: PTA has shown a weak bearish market trend with pressure above [13]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level above the mean, open - interest PCR around 0.70 indicates a sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 5,000 and 4,400 respectively [13]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [13]. Alkali - related Options (Caustic Soda) - Fundamental analysis: Caustic soda plant inventory has increased [14]. - Market analysis: Caustic soda has shown a downward - trending market with pressure above [14]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high level, open - interest PCR below 0.90 indicates a weak sideways market, and the pressure and support levels are 3,000 and 2,440 respectively [14]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [14]. Alkali - related Options (Soda Ash) - Fundamental analysis: Soda ash plant inventory has decreased, and inventory available days have shortened [14]. - Market analysis: Soda ash has shown a low - level sideways market trend with support below [14]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates at a relatively high historical level, open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong bearish pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1,300 and 1,200 respectively [14]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [14]. Urea - related Options - Fundamental analysis: Urea enterprise inventory is at a high level, and domestic demand is weak [15]. - Market analysis: Urea has shown a weak sideways market trend at a low level [15]. - Option factor research: Implied volatility fluctuates slightly around the historical mean, open - interest PCR below 0.60 indicates strong bearish pressure, and the pressure and support levels are 1,800 and 1,620 respectively [15]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold spot long + buy at - the - money put option + sell out - of - the - money call option [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report is the second in the series of in - depth studies on chemical plants. It analyzes the upstream - downstream matching of the polyester industry chain and the marginal plants of futures varieties such as PX, PTA, PR, and PF. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching account for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounts for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounts for 72.1% of the production capacity. The marginal plants are identified from aspects like old plants, small single - line production capacity or enterprise scale, high production process costs, and long distances for raw material procurement or product sales [3][4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Polyester Industry Chain Upstream - Downstream Matching Analysis 3.1.1 Group - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching As of the end of July 2025, China's PX, PTA, and polyester production capacities were 4367, 9171.5, and 8894 tons respectively. The theoretical annual PX gap was 1640 tons, and the theoretical annual PTA surplus was 1567 tons. PTA enterprises with PX or polyester matching accounted for 91.6% of the production capacity, PX with downstream matching accounted for 82.0% of the production capacity, and polyester with upstream matching accounted for 72.1% of the production capacity. The enterprises in the polyester industry chain can be classified into four types: those with complete PX/PTA/polyester matching; those mainly with polyester and PTA matching but little PX matching; those with only PX and PTA matching; and those with relatively single matching [10][11]. 3.1.2 Region - Based Upstream - Downstream Matching The production capacity of the polyester industry chain is concentrated in Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, Fujian, etc. Except for Shandong having a large surplus of PX for sale, most other regions have PX production capacity gaps or are basically balanced. Zhejiang, Jiangsu, and Liaoning have the largest PX gaps. In terms of PTA, Jiangsu and Zhejiang have large PTA production capacity gaps, while Liaoning, Guangdong, and other regions have PTA surpluses [12][15][16]. 3.2 PX Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, China's total PX production capacity was 4367 tons, with an effective operating capacity of 4254 tons. PX production capacity is mainly distributed in Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shandong, etc. The marginal PX plants are identified from aspects such as production time, single - set scale, and production process. Old plants (over 20 years in production), small - scale plants (less than 100 tons), and medium - short - process plants (accounting for 17.4% of the total production capacity) are more likely to be marginal plants [20][23][30]. 3.3 PTA Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PTA production capacity was 9171.5 tons, with 836.5 tons having been shut down for more than half a year. PTA production capacity is mainly distributed in coastal areas such as Zhejiang, Jiangsu, Liaoning, Guangdong, and Fujian. The marginal PTA plants are mainly those with a production capacity of less than 200 tons and put into production before 2020, with a total capacity of 1295 tons, accounting for 14.1% [34][40][41]. 3.4 PR Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PR production capacity was 2168 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Hainan, and Liaoning. The top four bottle - chip manufacturers account for 78% of the total production capacity. The marginal bottle - chip plants are those that meet one or more of the following conditions: long production time, small plant scale, lack of upstream - downstream matching ability of the group, and high freight costs due to long distances for raw material procurement or product sales. A total of 326 tons of production capacity may be marginal plants, accounting for 15% [44][51][54]. 3.5 PF Marginal Plant Analysis As of the end of July 2025, the total PF production capacity was 968.5 tons, mainly distributed in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Fujian. The top four short - fiber manufacturers account for 46% of the total production capacity. Plants with a production time of over 20 years are mainly concentrated in Jiangsu and Fujian. Small - scale plants (less than 20 tons) are more likely to be marginal plants. The difference in processing costs between new and old plants is not significant, and the survival of old plants depends more on market dynamic balance [55][57][62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PTA lacks fundamental support and is expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The supply - demand balance sheet may shift from de - stocking to inventory accumulation, but low processing fees, increased maintenance plans, and cost - side support will keep it in this pattern [1][6]. - MEG is in a weak state and is expected to run weakly in the short term. Although there is a strong expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low inventory at the main port provides obvious support below [1][6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Upstream Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Market Review**: Due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed's 25 - basis - point interest rate cut, international crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, terminal demand remained sluggish, and the postponement of the commissioning time of new downstream PTA plants led to a significant decline in PX prices at the end of the session. As of September 19, the closing price of Asian PX was $815.67 per ton CFR China, down $15.66 per ton from September 12 [17]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The restart of two 160 - million - ton PX units of Fujian Fuhai Chuang and the maintenance of a 70 - million - ton unit of Dalian Fujia led to a narrow increase in the average weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic PX to 85.51%, a 0.88% increase from the previous week [20]. - **PX - Naphtha Price Spread**: As of September 19, the PX - naphtha price spread was $218.9 per ton, down $13.91 per ton from September 12. Due to the lack of improvement in terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, the PX - naphtha price spread continued to decline [23]. 3.2 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: This week, PTA device operation was stable, but the restart of Fuhai Chuang was postponed. Terminal orders were average during the traditional peak season, and demand was tepid. With low processing fees, some enterprises added maintenance plans, and PTA mainly oscillated at a low level. As of September 19, the spot price of PTA was 4,555 yuan per ton, and the spot basis was 2601 - 81 [24]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased to 77.29%, a 2.34% increase from the previous week. In September, with the planned restart of some units, the capacity utilization rate is expected to reach around 78% [28][31]. - **Processing Fees**: With the upcoming restart of large - scale East China plants, increased domestic supply, and tepid terminal performance during the traditional peak season, PTA processing fees have been weakening. In the short term, although there is an expectation of weakening supply - demand, the low valuation limits the further downward space, and processing fees are expected to continue the weak pattern [32]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: In September, with the restart of maintenance units and little change in demand, the PTA supply - demand situation is expected to shift from de - stocking to a loose balance [35]. 3.3 MEG Fundamental Analysis - **Market Review**: Despite the decline in the main port inventory, the market was generally worried about supply - side pressure. Although there were small rebounds during the week, the confidence to chase the rise was insufficient, and the MEG market remained weak at the weekend. As of September 19, the closing price of Zhangjiagang MEG was 4,352 yuan per ton, and the delivered price in the South China market was 4,470 yuan per ton [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: The total capacity utilization rate of MEG was 67.04%, a 0.48% increase from the previous week. Among them, the capacity utilization rate of integrated plants decreased by 0.19%, and that of coal - based MEG increased by 1.56%. In September, with the restart of some domestic units and the end of the maintenance season, the overall MEG output is expected to continue to rise [46]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the total expected arrival volume of MEG in East China was 88,100 tons. As of September 18, the total MEG inventory in the main East China ports was 383,700 tons, a decrease of 11,900 tons from September 15 and an increase of 20,500 tons from September 11 [47][49]. - **Profit**: Due to the expected increase in supply and the rise in raw material prices, the profits of all MEG production processes declined this week. As of September 19, the profit of naphtha - based MEG was - $115.99 per ton, down $13.59 per ton from the previous week, and the profit of coal - based MEG was - 141.07 yuan per ton, down 87.68 yuan per ton from the previous week [51]. 3.4 Downstream Demand - Side Analysis of the Industrial Chain - **Polyester Production**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester was 87.89%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous week. With the restart of some previously maintained units and the planned commissioning of new units next week, domestic polyester production is expected to increase slightly [56]. - **Capacity Utilization Expectation**: In August, polyester production and sales were relatively good, and new plants were commissioned, resulting in a narrow fluctuation in the polyester operating rate. In September, with the expectation of the traditional peak season, the planned restart of some previously reduced - production and maintained units, and the expected commissioning of multiple new plants, the monthly polyester load is expected to increase [59]. - **Capacity Utilization of Sub - Products**: This week, the average weekly capacity utilization rate of polyester filament was 91.54%, a 0.11% increase from the previous period; the average capacity utilization rate of polyester staple fiber was 87.01%, a 0.19% increase from the previous week; and the capacity utilization rate of fiber - grade polyester chips was 83.31%, a 1.32% increase from the previous week [62]. - **Inventory**: Due to cautious downstream procurement and weak production and sales, factory finished - product inventories increased slightly this week [63]. - **Cash Flow**: With the decrease in polymerization costs, polyester manufacturers focused on sales, and the average weekly price decreased, compressing cash flow. However, the cash flow of DTY was repaired [66]. - **Weaving Industry**: As of September 18, the operating load of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 62.19%, a 0.23% decrease from the previous data. The average number of terminal weaving order days was 14.42 days, a decrease of 0.13 days from the previous week. The current orders are mainly for autumn and winter cold - proof fabrics, and the industry demand has not improved substantially [71]. 3.5 Summary of the Polyester Industrial Chain Fundamentals - **Cost Side**: International crude oil prices rose this week, providing some cost support for PX. However, due to weak terminal demand and the postponement of new PTA plant commissioning, PX prices declined significantly at the end of the session [73]. - **Supply Side**: The average weekly capacity utilization rate of PTA increased, and the total capacity utilization rate of MEG also increased slightly, with different trends in integrated and coal - based units [73]. - **Demand Side**: The overall supply of polyester fluctuated slightly this week, and the operating load and order days of the weaving industry in Jiangsu and Zhejiang decreased [73]. - **Inventory**: PTA supply is expected to increase, and the near - term supply - demand remains tight, while the long - term inventory accumulation expectation is strong. The MEG inventory at the main East China ports decreased compared with September 15 but increased compared with September 11 [73].