Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The pre - holiday freight rate drive is weak, and the recent EC2604 contract is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the implementation of shipping companies' price - holding measures in March after the holiday. The 04 contract's volatility is expected to increase, and investors are advised to participate with caution. In normal years, shipping companies issue price - increase letters in March and April to stabilize prices. Before the Spring Festival, the overall drive is estimated to be bearish, and the short - selling direction has an advantage [4][5]. - For far - month contracts, the game over the resumption time is intense, and the volatility is expected to remain high. The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. If it does not resume in the first half of 2026, the pressure on the capacity side is expected to be relatively controllable, and the freight rate may still reach a high level. Investors can pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on EC2606 and shorting on EC2610 [6]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Futures Price - As of February 9, 2026, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts is 56,740.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume is 17,605.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts are 1756.00, 1238.00, 1553.00, 1614.80, 1126.10, and 1425.50 respectively [7]. 2. Spot Price - On February 6, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price is 1403 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - US West route) price is 1801 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - US East) price is 2530 US dollars/FEU. On February 9, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) is 1657.94 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - US West) is 1155.66 points [7]. 3. Container Ship Capacity Supply - **Static Supply**: As of January 31, 2026, 6 container ships have been delivered in 2026, with a total capacity of 46,950 TEU. 2 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU have been delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for 12,000 - 16,999 TEU ships, 737,400 TEU (50 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,212,000 TEU (82 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,261,500 TEU (77 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small [2][3]. - **Dynamic Supply**: In the remaining three weeks of February, the average weekly capacity is 271,600 TEU, with the capacities in WEEK7/8/9 being 366,600/259,800/188,300 TEU respectively. In March, the average weekly capacity is 288,400 TEU, and in April, it is 274,700 TEU. There are 13 blank sailings in February, 7 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in March, and 1 blank sailing and 4 TBNs in April [3]. 4. Supply Chain - The resumption of the Suez Canal is expected to be a gradual process. COSCO management points out that there is still no clear schedule for the full resumption of the Red Sea. The Red Sea resumption needs to meet multiple conditions. Since mid - February 2026, Maersk's ME11 route will implement structural adjustments through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal [6]. 5. Demand and European Economy - The cancellation of the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics by the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration on January 8, 2026, may disrupt the shipping rhythm of relevant industries and further affect the pricing strategies of shipping companies. Attention should be paid to whether the freight volume from the Far East to Europe in February and March can increase significantly and whether the actual freight rate will be stronger than in normal years [4].

作为海南自贸港封关运作后的首个春运，琼州海峡客滚运输客货两旺，新能源车辆运输量大幅攀 升。2月9日，海口海事局发布统计数据，春运首周已累计安全保障进出港客滚船2349艘次，运输旅客 75.8万人次，车辆19.27万辆次，同比分别增加4.58%、16.65%、9.30%。其中新能源专班累计361艘次， 同比增加75.24%。累计运输新能源车辆33670辆次，同比增加122.49%。 海南海峡航运股份有限公司作为运营主体，推出多项保障措施。在原有2艘甲板货船基础上，新增2 艘甲板货船投入春运运营;在严守运输安全的前提下，合理优化客滚船载运新能源车的安全间距，每航 次可多装载新能源车10余辆;为新能源车设置"专区、专道、专船、专位"，落实分类停放与隔离要求， 春运期间日均可发约50个新能源车运输专班，保障约5600辆新能源车进出岛。 春运首周琼州海峡受2次恶劣天气影响，2月6日早上全线停航5个多小时，2月8日中午至2月9日凌晨 受寒潮大风影响航班大面积延误，湛海两地均快速启动应急响应，做好停复航相关工作。湛江、海口两 市已建立"信息联判、资源联调、行动联勤、舆情联处、复盘联改"五联工作机制，实时共享客流、车 流、气 ...

Summary of the Transportation and Logistics Industry Research Report Industry Overview - **Industry Focus**: Transportation and Logistics, specifically the shipping sector - **Key Metrics**: - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rate at $102,897/day, down 11.0% week-over-week, up 213.2% year-over-year - MR (Medium Range) freight rate at $25,025/day, down 9.2% week-over-week, up 52.4% year-over-year - SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) for routes to the US West Coast, Europe, and Southeast Asia down 5.0%, 4.8%, and 3.7% respectively week-over-week - BDI (Baltic Dry Index) up 14.9% week-over-week, BCI (Baltic Capesize Index) up 19.0%, BSI (Baltic Supramax Index) up 5.8% [4][5][6] Core Insights - **Market Dynamics**: The oil shipping cycle is expected to remain "higher for longer" due to structural changes in demand from older vessels to compliant fleets following tightened sanctions from Europe and the US [5][6] - **Market Concentration**: The VLCC market is traditionally fragmented, with the top 10 companies holding a 44.1% market share. However, recent transactions and long-term charters have led to increased concentration, particularly with new entrants like Sinokor, which has acquired over 30 VLCCs [6] - **Asset Prices**: Second-hand VLCC prices have increased, with 10-year and 15-year-old vessels rising by 11.1% and 16.1% respectively since the beginning of the year [6] - **Charter Rates**: Frontline announced a one-year charter for 7 VLCCs at $76,900/day, exceeding the Clarkson quote of $71,750/day [6] Company Recommendations - **Companies to Watch**: - COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation (中远海能-A) with a target price of 13.50 and P/E ratios of 11.1 for 2026E and 19.2 for 2027E - China Merchants Energy Shipping (招商南油-A) with a target price of 3.70 and P/E ratios of 10.8 for 2026E and 16.6 for 2027E - Zhonggu Logistics (中谷物流-A) with a target price of 13.87 and P/E ratios of 10.6 for 2026E and 9.7 for 2027E - Seaspan Corporation (海丰国际-H) with a target price of 36.00 and P/E ratios of 9.1 for 2026E and 10.3 for 2027E [4][7] Risks - **Geopolitical Risks**: Changes in geopolitical conditions could impact the shipping industry significantly - **Economic Risks**: A substantial slowdown in global economic growth poses a risk to shipping demand [8] Additional Insights - **Valuation and Outlook**: The report maintains its profit forecasts and target prices for covered companies, indicating a positive outlook for the shipping sector [7] - **Market Trends**: The report highlights the importance of monitoring the supply-demand dynamics in the shipping market, particularly in light of recent geopolitical developments and market concentration trends [5][6]

Core Viewpoint - The white paper titled "The Practice of Safeguarding National Security in Hong Kong under 'One Country, Two Systems'" outlines the historical journey and principles of the central government's stance on national security in Hong Kong, emphasizing the importance of maintaining national security for the high-quality development of "One Country, Two Systems" [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Legislative Framework - The struggle for national security in Hong Kong has been ongoing, with the legislative process for Article 23 of the Basic Law being a focal point of contention [1]. - The Hong Kong National Security Law, passed on June 30, 2020, is highlighted as a significant milestone, establishing a dual-level enforcement mechanism for national security and effectively curbing anti-China forces [2]. - The implementation of the National Security Law has led to a systematic restructuring of Hong Kong's electoral and governance systems, reinforcing the principle of "patriots governing Hong Kong" [2]. Group 2: Achievements and Transformations - Since the implementation of the National Security Law, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) has made significant strides in fulfilling its constitutional responsibilities for national security, with a consensus on national security deeply rooted in society [3]. - The collaborative efforts between the central government and HKSAR have resulted in the effective safeguarding of national sovereignty and security, promoting stability and prosperity in Hong Kong [3]. - Key indicators of Hong Kong's economic health include its continued status as a global financial, shipping, and trade center, with the Global Financial Center Index ranking it third in the world and its economic freedom maintaining the top position globally [3]. Group 3: Future Directions and Principles - The white paper emphasizes the need for a comprehensive national security perspective to guide the ongoing implementation of "One Country, Two Systems," ensuring that governance remains in the hands of patriots [4]. - It stresses the importance of balancing security with human rights, maintaining the rule of law, and integrating development with security [4]. - The ultimate goal is to create a safe, free, and prosperous Hong Kong that aligns with national interests and benefits both residents and foreign investors, contributing to the broader objectives of national development and modernization [4].

| | | | | EC合约量价 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 合约 | 最新成交价 | 最新涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 持仓量单边 | 多单持仓 | 空单持仓 | 净多持仓 | | | （点） | （%） | 环比变化 | 环比变化 | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | (前20会员) | | EC2602 | | 0.79 | 124 | 1437 | 1128 | 1278 | -150 | | | | | -99 | 8 | | | | | EC2604 | 1238 | -0.39 | 14384 | 31132 | 17381 | 21507 | -4126 | | | | | -15067 | -295 | | | | | EC2606 | 1553 | -0.03 | 2206 | 14726 | 0 | 0 | 0 | | | | | -2694 | -86 | | | | | EC2608 | 1614.8 | 0.29 | 269 | 1414 | | | | | | | | -213 | 27 ...

1. Report Information - Report Title: Container Shipping Index Daily Report [1] - Date: February 10, 2026 [2] - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Core Viewpoint - The SCFIS dropped below 1700 points this week. The peak pre - Chinese New Year shipping demand has passed, and spot freight rates will enter a downward channel. Given slow post - holiday resumption and the upcoming April off - season, it's difficult to maintain high prices. Although the major airlines plan to resume Red Sea routes, the market is likely to remain in the off - season after the Chinese New Year. The high capacity in March limits potential price rebounds. Geopolitical conflicts may provide trading hotspots, and it is recommended to short - sell the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 3. Content Summary by Section 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Condition**: The SCFIS fell below 1700 points. The pre - Chinese New Year peak shipping demand has passed, and spot freight rates are expected to decline. For example, the pre - holiday quote from Shanghai to Rotterdam by Maersk was around $2100 - 2170 per large container, dropping to $2000 after the holiday. OCEAN Alliance's February quote was in the range of $2293 - 2430, and Premier Alliance's February quote was around $2035, with a $2535 quote for March. However, due to slow post - holiday resumption and the April off - season, it's hard to maintain high prices. The major airlines' plan to resume Red Sea routes may not change the off - season trend, and the high capacity in March limits potential rebounds [8] - **Operation Suggestions**: Short - sell the 04 contract on rallies and go long on the 08 contract on dips [8] 3.2 Industry News - **Overall Market**: From February 2nd to 6th, the China export container shipping market was generally stable. Before the Chinese New Year, the cargo volume was high, and the overall index declined. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index on February 6th was 1266.56 points, a 3.8% drop from the previous period [9] - **European Routes**: European economic data was stable, and the shipping demand was stable. Due to pre - holiday stocking, the cargo volume was high, and the average cabin utilization rate at Shanghai Port was nearly full. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to European basic ports on February 6th was $1403/TEU, a 1.1% drop from the previous period [9] - **Mediterranean Routes**: Similar to European routes, the spot booking price in the spot market dropped more than in Europe. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean basic ports on February 6th was $2291/TEU, a 5.5% drop from the previous period [9] - **North American Routes**: The consumer current situation index released by the University of Michigan in January was 55.4, higher than expected and the previous value but lower than last year's average, indicating high uncertainty in the US economy. The shipping market supply - demand situation was stable, with the average cabin utilization rate at Shanghai Port above 90% and some flights to the US West fully loaded. The freight rates from Shanghai Port to the US West and East basic ports on February 6th were $1801/FEU and $2530/FEU respectively, dropping 3.5% and 2.9% from the previous period [9][10] - **Geopolitical News**: The US announced the second - stage plan for the Gaza cease - fire on January 14th, focusing on demilitarization, technocratic governance, and post - war reconstruction. There are differences between Netanyahu and Trump on this plan. The Houthi armed forces in Yemen warned Saudi Arabia against military actions, and the Yemeni President's Leadership Council announced the establishment of a supreme military council [10] 3.3 Data Overview - **Container Shipping Spot Prices** - The SCFIS for European routes (basic ports) on February 9th was 1657.94, a 7.5% drop from February 2nd [12] - The SCFIS for US West routes (basic ports) on February 9th was 1155.66, a 4.9% increase from February 2nd [12] - **Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Quotes**: The trading data of container shipping European routes futures on February 9th is shown in Table 1, including contract information such as pre - settlement price, opening price, closing price, settlement price, change, change rate, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change [6] - **Shipping - Related Data Trends**: There are multiple data charts shown, including container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - European basic port freight rates, and Shanghai - Rotterdam spot freight rates [19][23]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to establish Shanghai as a leading international shipping center with a focus on green fuel supply and trading, marking a significant step towards the low-carbon transition of the global shipping industry [1] Summary by Relevant Sections Overall Goals - By 2030, Shanghai aims to initially establish an international green fuel supply and trading center, with LNG refueling capacity exceeding 1 million cubic meters and methanol and biofuel refueling capacity reaching 1 million tons [1] Green Fuel Supply System - Shanghai will develop a coordinated green fuel supply system that includes LNG, green methanol, and biofuels, transitioning from a single fuel supply to a diversified green service model [1] Strategic Importance - Strengthening the green fuel supply, refueling, and trading services will help Shanghai enhance its high-end shipping service capabilities, improve global resource allocation, and build core competitiveness for China's influence in the global shipping industry's transformation [1]

记者 王力 同时，上海将构建起"液化天然气+绿色甲醇+生物燃料"统筹协调发展的绿色燃料供给体系，政策 法规、标准规范、认证规则与管理机制基本健全，真正实现从"单一燃料供应"向"多元绿色服务"的跨越 式升级。 近日，交通运输部与国家发展改革委等十部门联合印发《关于支持上海国际航运绿色燃料加注中心 和交易中心建设的实施方案》（以下简称《实施方案》），这一重磅政策的出台，不仅是落实党中央、 国务院支持上海加快"五个中心"建设战略部署的关键举措，更标志着我国以实际行动引领全球航运业绿 色低碳转型，为上海打造全球领先国际航运中心注入"绿色新引擎"。 "十部委联合发文支持一个城市做一件事，从侧面反映了重要性。"上海市交通委员会科技信息处副 处长王大军说。 当下，全球航运业绿色转型已是历史必然，上海做强绿色燃料供给、加注、交易等新服务，不仅有 助于上海国际航运中心补齐高端航运服务业短板、增强全球资源配置能力，而且能借机打造面向未来的 核心竞争力，增强中国在全球航运业转型发展中的影响力和话语权。 首次明确2030年初步建成"双中心" 此次发布的《实施方案》在总体目标中首次明确：到2030年，上海将初步建成国际绿色燃料加注中 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Commission is proposing a comprehensive ban on maritime services for Russian crude oil to further weaken Russia's energy revenue and complicate its ability to find buyers for oil [1][3] Group 1: Sanctions Overview - The new sanctions plan includes adding 43 additional vessels to the "shadow fleet" list, bringing the total number of sanctioned vessels to 640 [3] - The EU aims to further restrict Russia's access to tankers for the "shadow fleet" and impose broad bans on services related to LNG transport and icebreaker maintenance to limit its natural gas export projects [3] - The sanctions also target the Russian financial system by proposing to sanction 20 regional banks and implement measures against cryptocurrency transactions to prevent evasion of sanctions [3] Group 2: Trade Restrictions - The EU plans to impose new export restrictions on goods and services to Russia, including rubber, tractors, and cybersecurity services, with a total value exceeding €360 million [3] Group 3: Economic Impact - According to the European Commission President, Russia's oil and gas revenue is projected to decline by 24% by 2025, reaching the lowest level since 2020 [3] - The revenue for January 2026 is expected to be the lowest since the onset of the Russia-Ukraine war in 2022 [3] - The proposed sanctions are expected to intensify pressure on the Russian economy and impact the global energy trade and shipping markets [3]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to establish Shanghai as a global hub for green shipping fuel supply and trading, promoting a low-carbon transition in the shipping industry and contributing to China's dual carbon goals [1][3]. Group 1: Implementation Plan Overview - The plan was jointly issued by ten departments, including the Ministry of Transport and the National Development and Reform Commission, marking a significant step towards leading the global shipping industry's green transformation [1]. - By 2030, Shanghai aims to establish a green fuel supply and trading center, with LNG refueling capacity reaching one million cubic meters and green methanol and biofuels reaching one million tons [1]. Group 2: Green Fuel Supply System - Shanghai will develop a coordinated green fuel supply system that includes LNG, green methanol, and biofuels, transitioning from a single fuel supply to a diversified green service model [2]. - Key areas for green fuel production, storage, transportation, and refueling facilities will be established, ensuring a robust supply chain [2]. Group 3: Breakthrough Innovations - The plan includes four major innovations: a collaborative mechanism between national and local levels, innovative multi-scenario refueling service models, breaking production layout restrictions for green methanol, and creating a dual-driven model for refueling and trading [3]. - The establishment of a comprehensive support framework across five dimensions—capacity assurance, refueling services, policy incentives, trading services, and safety regulation—will enhance Shanghai's position as a leading international shipping center [3].