商贸零售涨幅居前，中国中免（601888）、步步高（002251）等涨停，王府井（600859）、宁波中百（600857）、供销大集（000564）、丽尚国 潮（600738）等涨超3%。 有色金属表现抢眼，龙磁科技（300835）、中科三环（000970）、西藏矿业（000762）、永杉锂业（603399）、金钼股份（601958）等涨停或张 超10%。 A股三大股指7月24日开盘涨跌互现。早盘两市震荡走高，沪指盘中再度突破3600点关口。午后两市维持高位震荡格局，上涨个股增多。 从盘面上看，海南板块掀涨停潮，大金融稳步走强，期市再现多品种涨停，稀土、锂矿等有色板块攻势如潮；疫苗、医美等医药低位细分行业午 后爆发；CPO、红利资产逆势下跌。 至收盘，上证综指涨0.65%，报3605.73点；科创50指数涨1.17%，报1032.84点；深证成指涨1.21%，报11193.06点；创业板指涨1.5%，报2345.37 点。 Wind统计显示，两市及北交所共4391只股票上涨，911只股票下跌，平盘有113只股票。 沪深两市成交总额18447亿元，较前一交易日的18646亿元减少199亿元。其中，沪市成交852 ...

黑色商品日报 黑色商品日报（2025 年 7 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 钢材 | 螺纹钢：昨日螺纹盘面冲高回落，截止日盘螺纹 2510 合约收盘价格为 3274 元/吨，较上一交易收盘价格 下跌 33 元/吨，跌幅 1%，持仓减少 10.2 万手。现货价格小幅下跌，成交回落，唐山地区迁安普方坯价格 | 偏强运行 | | | 下跌 20 元/吨至 3110 元/吨，杭州市场中天螺纹价格下跌 20 元/吨至 3340 元/吨，全国建材成交量 9.09 万 | | | | 吨。据钢谷网数据，本周全国建材产量回落 1.18 万吨至 418.02 万吨，社库回升 7.98 万吨至 546.62 万吨， | | | | 厂库回落 25.17 万吨至 305.76 万吨，建材表需回升 39.45 万吨至 435.21 万吨。建材产量小幅回落，库存再 | | | | 次转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。近期反内卷、大基建等政策面消息不断，在很大程度上提振市场情绪， | | | | 不过市场现实供需有所趋弱。预计短期螺纹盘面将转入震荡整理走势。 | ...

（原标题：和讯投顾都业华：有人问怎么看止跌，有个简单办法） 7月24日，和讯投顾都业华称，咱们可以看看08年水泥、钢铁板块调整的情况，以及它们后续的走势， 这虽不能代表未来一定这么走，但可作借鉴。水泥板块我们以建筑材料行业来分析，08年4万亿刺激那 次，数据量太大，电脑操作有点慢。咱们看当时行情，当时出了大基建相关利好，水泥板块先是走了6 根阳线，之后第7根K线是一根中阴线，形成顶分型，调整比较凶。从调整时间看，按天数算是第四天 调完，按阴线算中间有三根。 当时水泥板块回拉时没出现二卖，而是继续新高，这次回拉成了短线寻找其他水泥个股机会的时机。不 过后来又出现调整，且这次调整时间更长，现在市场是否会这样调整，大家拭目以待。 有人问怎么看止跌，有个简单办法，当出现顶分型调整时先不理会，直到出现底分型，再认为止跌。这 种方法虽看不到最低点，但相对稳妥。 再看钢铁板块，它起来时阳线力度比水泥小，调整时，一方面可以用黄金分割，从低点到高点画线看支 撑位；另一方面可以看上涨过程中的震荡位置，这里往往有小中枢，还可能是之前下跌中枢的上沿。当 出现顶分型调整，等底分型出现再判断止跌，虽然买不到最低点，但能提高成功率。做趋势 ...

"反内卷"预期下近几个交易日，国内钢材价格连续拉涨。虽然24日早盘时段，钢价自周内高点有所回 落，但随着最新一期钢材产量库存数据出炉，午盘钢材期价再度震荡回升。在光大期货黑色团队看来， 周度钢材基本面数据表现偏强，且在钢铁行业供给侧改革预期再起和大基建题材接连发力的背景下，短 期钢材期货盘面仍将震荡偏强运行。 具体来看，我的钢铁网（Mysteel）发布的最新数据显示，截至7月24日当周，全国螺纹产量环比回升2.9 万吨至211.96万吨，同比减少4.73万吨；社库环比回升2.81万吨至372.97万吨，同比减少193.62万吨；厂 库环比回落7.43万吨至165.67万吨，同比减少27.98万吨；螺纹表需回升10.41万吨至216.58万吨，同比增 加10.41万吨。"螺纹产量小幅回升，库存再次转降，表需回升，数据表现偏强。"光大期货黑色研究总 监邱跃成点评称。 据他具体分析，供应方面看，近期钢价连续上涨，长流程钢厂利润明显回升，部分短流程钢厂也扭亏为 盈，钢厂铁水逐步流回螺纹钢，螺纹产量有所回升。需求方面看，终端需求整体仍处于低位，不过价格 上涨后投机需求有所回升，期现正套商采购现货热情也在上升。 Myst ...

↑鞍钢集团本钢板材公司生产的超薄超韧钢板成为企业的核心产品。本报记者 孙潜彤摄 "这种新钢板别看它薄，但承重力相当惊人。一块如身份证大小的钢板能承受480吨的重量，相当于3头成年蓝鲸的体重。"在鞍钢集团本钢板材冷轧总厂第三冷轧厂，生产负责人樊攀自豪地向记 既要轻薄，又要强韧。今年以来，鞍钢集团本钢板材公司围绕"一块汽车用钢板"，以高科技含量扩大优质增量供给，以汽车板、镀锌板等产品为引领，以热轧卷板、中厚板、家电专用板、涂镀板 在高端产品领域，核心技术的撑杆跳，支点源于智力支持。本钢板材研发院是本钢板材公司推进科技创新和产业创新深度融合的关键点。今年上半年，本钢板材公司持续加码科技创新工作，取得 研发院汽车家电产品研究所研究员富聿晶说："今年，研发院深化'中心主研+基地主战'技术创新体系建设，研发的高端化产品数量和质量不断'冲高'，热成形系列产品1-6月份销量是去年同期 本钢板材热连轧厂生产线宽敞的厂房内，只见橙红色的带钢犹如一条条火龙在轧机中穿梭，不久前，这条产线成功轧制出2180mm超宽幅热轧板，填补了国内宽幅板材空白，适用于各种汽车用板 热连轧厂厂长刘鸿智介绍，"为突破传统轧制工艺技术瓶颈，企业不断深化柔 ...

金元期货股份有限公司于7月23日举办"2025年期现策略升级与风险管理交流会"，此次会议聚焦黑色产业链核心品种 ——螺纹钢，以"从宏观到微观，从期货到期权，从被动经营到全面风险管理"为脉络，交流企业稳健经营的新视角、 新路径。现场120位西部钢贸商齐聚一堂，探讨在全球产业链重构与市场波动加剧的背景下，企业借力期货期权工具 实现稳健经营的方法。 在主题演讲环节，四位产业及期权专家分别为与会者带来了精彩纷呈的分享。 周晓斌先生曾任山西高义钢铁有限公司期货部负责人，现任杭州中财伽零贸易有限公司总经理。对黑色产业链、钢材 现货贸易及期货交易经验丰富。擅长从政策面、产业面、市场情绪及心态等方面进行综合分析，并挖掘出交易机会。 本次会议周晓斌先生以《宏观政策和产业供需对螺纹钢价格的影响》为题，梳理出近期宏观的变化、阐述了政策对黑 色产业的影响；并通过分析资金面的变化及螺纹钢基本面数据，为参会者指出近期螺纹钢的核心价格影响因素——主 要关注电炉峰电成本指标。当下宏观经济周期与产业供需格局深度交织，企业风险管理已从"选择题"变为"必答题"。 不谋全局者，不足谋一域。理解宏观大势，是制定微观策略的前提。周晓斌先生发表的深刻洞见 ...

策略研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.07.24 从产能周期视角看"反内卷" [Table_Authors] 吴信坤(分析师) 本报告导读： 从已有产能看，A 股大多数一级行业存在内卷式竞争，其中中游制造较上游资源品 更突出。从潜在增量产能看，多数行业扩产意愿已降至底部，半数以上具备较强扩 产能力。从已有和潜在两个维度刻画行业的反内卷轨迹，不同生命周期行业产能出 清信号并不相同：①对于传统行业，关注扩产能力改善；②对于新兴行业，信号是 扩产意愿和能力回到低位。 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 | | 021-23154147 | | --- | --- | | | wuxinkun@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040061 | | | 刘颖(分析师) | | | 021-23185665 | | | liuying13@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880525040124 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 一页纸精读行业比较数据：7 月 2025.07.23 加仓创新药新消费，减仓互联网 2025.07.21 港股医药与可选消费板块 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the overall industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q2 2025, the overall market value of A - share holdings of active equity - oriented funds decreased, while that of H - share holdings increased. The industry concentration of the top heavy - stock holdings of equity - oriented funds decreased. The communication, non - bank finance, and media industries saw significant increases in allocation ratios, while the steel, food and beverage, and coal industries had large reduction ratios [4][6]. - The structure of the top heavy - stocks of active equity - oriented funds changed. The overall number of large - market - cap leaders decreased, and the holdings of sub - industry leaders increased. The new high - growth technology stocks related to AI emerged, while traditional large - cap white - horse stocks were significantly reduced [4]. - In terms of industry leaders, the communication, non - bank finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care industries were significantly increased, while the steel, coal, real estate, social services, and food and beverage industries were significantly reduced [21]. - The report suggests focusing on four investment themes: communication and hardware upstream under AI diffusion, non - bank finance, new consumption in the Hong Kong stock market, and national defense and military industry [26] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2025Q2 Active Fund Heavy - Stock Holding Structure Overview - **A - share and H - share holdings changes**: In Q2 2025, the total market value of active equity - oriented fund heavy - stock holdings was 1736.2 billion yuan, a 1.66% QoQ decrease. A - share holdings decreased by 2.79% QoQ to 1394.8 billion yuan, while H - share holdings increased by 3.20% QoQ to 341.3 billion yuan. Due to the complex macro - economic environment and market volatility, funds faced redemption pressure and tended to reduce large - cap stocks with poor liquidity [6]. - **Industry concentration decline**: From Q1 to Q2 2025, the industry concentration of the heavy - stock holdings of equity - oriented funds decreased. CR3 decreased by 0.56 percentage points to 38.37%, and CR5 decreased by 4.18 percentage points to 51.18%. The top five industries in terms of holding market value remained the same, but the proportion of the electronics industry increased, while the other four industries decreased [4][7]. - **Structural adjustment of industry holdings**: In Q2 2025, 12 industries saw an increase in the total market value of holdings. The communication, non - bank finance, and media industries had large increases in allocation ratios, rising by 75.88%, 64.62%, and 38.37% respectively. The steel, food and beverage, and coal industries had large reduction ratios, decreasing by 46.32%, 26.16%, and 23.99% respectively [9] 3.2 Q2 Active Fund Top Heavy - Stock Tracking - **Change in the structure of top heavy - stocks**: In Q2 2025, the structure of the top 20 heavy - stocks of active equity - oriented funds changed. The large - market - cap leaders decreased, and the sub - industry leaders increased. The market value of the top 20 heavy - stocks accounted for 20.72% of all heavy - stocks, a 2% decrease from Q1 [12]. - **Changes in the top five heavy - stocks**: The top five heavy - stocks remained the same, but the overall holdings decreased. New high - growth technology stocks such as New Fiber Optic Technology and Inphi Corporation quickly rose in the rankings, while traditional large - cap white - horse stocks such as Luxshare Precision Industry, Midea Group, and Contemporary Amperex Technology were significantly reduced [4]. - **Hong Kong stock market adjustment**: In the Hong Kong stock market, AI and Internet media leaders were reduced, while the pharmaceutical and new consumption sectors that performed well in Q2 were significantly increased [18] 3.3 Q2 Industry Leader Heavy - Stock Tracking - **Industry leader allocation changes**: In Q2 2025, the communication, non - bank finance, media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and beauty care industries were significantly increased, while the steel, coal, real estate, social services, and food and beverage industries were significantly reduced [21]. - **Communication industry focus**: Driven by the booming demand for AI hardware, the communication industry became the focus of funds. The optical module sector, which benefits from the expansion of AI capital expenditure, was the main area for increasing communication heavy - stocks. The profitability of communication equipment is expected to continue to improve in the second half of the year [22]. - **Non - bank finance sector highlights**: The leaders of the non - bank finance sector attracted attention. The holdings of Ping An Insurance and CPIC increased by 55% and 41% respectively, and securities leaders such as Citic Securities and Huatai Securities also saw over 30% increases. The brokerage sector's performance is expected to continue to improve [23] 3.4 Investment Recommendations - **AI diffusion - related communication and hardware upstream**: The significant increase in the holdings of optical module leaders reflects that funds are extending from AI software to computing infrastructure. AI capital expenditure is expected to drive the performance of upstream sectors in the second half of the year [26]. - **Non - bank finance sector**: The concentrated increase in holdings of leaders such as Citic Securities and Ping An Insurance reflects the positive expectations of the market for the profitability improvement of the brokerage and insurance sectors. The non - bank finance sector is expected to achieve a resonance of valuation repair and performance recovery [26]. - **Hong Kong stock new consumption theme**: After the correction in the AI sector, funds refocused on consumption structure highlights, especially in the Hong Kong stock market. Sub - sectors such as pets, toys, and emotional consumption have become important directions for heavy - stock allocation [26]. - **National defense and military industry safety theme**: The significant increase in the holdings of core military stocks reflects the high attention of institutions to the "national security + high - end manufacturing" theme. The military industry has policy support, order growth, and mid - report performance improvement expectations, with medium - term allocation value [27]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 == 宏观金融数据日报 | | 国贸期货研究院 宏观金融研究中心 郑雨婷 | | 期货执业证号:F3074875; 投资咨询证号: Z0017779 | | | 2025/7/24 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动(bp) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前值变动 | | | | | | | | (bp) | | | DR001 | 1.37 | 5.64 | DR007 | 1.48 | 0.84 | | है | GC001 | 1.58 | -2.50 | GC007 | 1.56 | 5.00 | | 而 | SHBOR 3M | 1.55 | 0.20 | LPR 5年 | 3.50 | 0.00 | | 市 | 1年期国债 | 1.36 | 1.50 | 5年期国债 | 1.55 | 2.00 | | 场 | 10年期国债 | 1.70 | 1.05 | 10年期美债 | 4.35 | -3.00 | 回顾:央行昨日开展了2148亿元7天期逆回购操作,操作利 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend on July 24, with the Hainan sector experiencing significant growth, becoming one of the market's highlights [1][2] - The Hainan sector surged over 9% by midday, with multiple stocks hitting the daily limit, including Kangzhi Pharmaceutical, Hainan Airport, and Hainan Highway [4][6] - Major industry sectors such as retail, steel, and real estate saw gains exceeding 2%, while sectors like communication and banking underperformed [4] Group 2 - The China Electric Power Construction Company (China Power Construction) reached its daily limit, with trading volume exceeding 150 billion yuan, marking a near ten-year high [9] - The government announced that the Hainan Free Trade Port will officially start operations on December 18, 2025, with significant policy changes including an increase in zero-tariff goods from 21% to 74% [8] - The new policies will allow for a broader range of zero-tariff goods and more flexible trade management, enhancing the operational environment for businesses in Hainan [8]