Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - Not provided in the given content Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - For silicon ferroalloy, on August 29, 2025, the latest prices of Ningxia 72 and Inner Mongolia 72 were 5320 and 5350 respectively, with daily changes of -30 and 0, and weekly changes of -10 and 50 [1]. - The export prices of Tianjin 72 and Tianjin 75 silicon ferroalloy were 1055 and 1105 US dollars respectively, with the latter having a weekly change of -5 [1]. - For silicon manganese, the latest prices of Inner Mongolia 6517, Ningxia 6517, Guangxi 6517, Guizhou 6517, and Yunnan 6517 were 5720, 5600, 5750, 5700, and 5700 respectively, with different daily and weekly changes [1]. Supply - The production data of 136 silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, including monthly and weekly output, and the capacity utilization rate of enterprises in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi from 2021 - 2025 are presented [3]. - The production data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, including weekly output and the procurement volume and price of Hebei Iron and Steel Group, are shown [5]. Demand - The demand data of silicon manganese in China from 2021 - 2025, including the estimated demand volume and the relationship with the production of crude steel, are provided [3][6]. - The procurement volume and price data of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for silicon ferroalloy and silicon manganese from 2021 - 2025 are given [3][5]. Inventory - The inventory data of 60 sample silicon ferroalloy enterprises in China, including the inventory in different regions and the warehouse - receipt and effective - forecast data from 2021 - 2025, are presented [4]. - The inventory data of silicon manganese, including warehouse - receipt, effective - forecast, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises in China from 2021 - 2025, are shown [6]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit data of silicon ferroalloy in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia from 2021 - 2025, including production cost, profit from converting to the main contract, and spot profit, are provided [4]. - The profit data of silicon manganese in different regions (Inner Mongolia, Guangxi, North, and South) from 2021 - 2025, including the profit from converting to the main contract, are shown [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various asset classes including macro - finance, stocks, precious metals, black metals, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, and agricultural products. It points out that short - term macro upward drivers are marginally strengthening, with focus on domestic incremental stimulus policies, loose expectations, Sino - US trade negotiation progress, and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Different asset classes are expected to have different short - term trends, mainly presenting震荡 (oscillation) or震荡偏强 (oscillation with a slightly upward trend) patterns [2][3]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macro Finance - Overseas: The second - quarter GDP had a year - on - year growth rate of 3.3%, higher than the expected 3.1%. After the New York Fed President Williams hinted at a possible rate cut, market expectations for a Fed rate cut next month increased, the US dollar index was weak, and global risk appetite increased. - Domestic: China's economic data in July slowed down and was below expectations. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. With the extension of the Sino - US tariff truce for 90 days and increased US easing expectations, short - term external risks decreased, and domestic risk appetite increased. - Asset Performance: Stocks are expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with short - term cautious long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be high - level oscillatory in the short term, with cautious observation; commodities: black metals, non - ferrous metals, and energy chemicals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; precious metals are high - level and slightly stronger oscillatory in the short term, with cautious long positions [2]. Stocks - The domestic stock market fell significantly due to the drag of sectors such as clothing and home textiles, biomedicine, and liquor. - The short - term macro upward driver is marginally strengthening, with focus on Sino - US trade negotiation progress and implementation of domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious observation is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices rose on Thursday. The Fed's independence concerns and the weakening US dollar supported the upward movement of precious metals. - The number of initial jobless claims in the US decreased, and the second - quarter GDP was stronger than expected. The market is focused on the PCE data to be released on Friday. Gold has strong short - term support, but be wary of the Fed's changing attitude [3][4]. Black Metals Steel - Steel futures and spot prices rebounded slightly on Thursday, and trading volume increased slightly. The expectation of steel production cuts in the next two years has increased. - The fundamentals remain weak, with an increase in the inventory of five major steel products and a decline in the apparent consumption of some products. Supply is mixed, with an increase in rebar production and a slight decrease in hot - rolled coil production. There is a possibility of further production restrictions in the north in early September, and the steel market may continue to rebound [5]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded significantly on Thursday. Steel mills' profits are high, but due to production restrictions in the north in the next week, steel mills' procurement is cautious. - Global iron ore shipments and arrivals decreased this week. Port inventories decreased slightly on Monday. Iron ore prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - Silicon iron prices were flat, and silicon manganese prices rebounded slightly on Thursday. The demand for ferroalloys is okay as the production of five major steel products continues to increase. - The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia is stable, with some minor production fluctuations. There are new production capacity plans in the future, and the daily output may be affected by 500 - 800 tons. The prices of ferroalloys are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6][7]. Soda Ash - The soda ash main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply increased due to the return of previous maintenance, and there is supply pressure with new capacity coming online. - Demand remained stable week - on - week, but overall demand support is weak. Profits decreased week - on - week. Soda ash is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Glass - The glass main contract oscillated on Thursday. Supply remained stable, and demand is difficult to improve significantly. - Profits decreased as glass prices fell. With the support of real - estate news, glass is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Due to concerns about US tariffs and the expected tightening of the Japanese central bank's monetary policy, and the weakening of domestic demand, the strong copper price is difficult to sustain [9]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fell slightly on Thursday, and inventories continued to increase. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term [9]. Aluminum Alloy - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, and demand is weak. The price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger in the short term, but the upward space is limited [9]. Tin - The supply - side开工率 (operating rate) increased, and the mine supply is expected to be loose. The demand side is weak, but the price decline has stimulated downstream replenishment. Tin prices are expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with support from smelter maintenance and peak - season expectations, but restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations (restoration of production expectations), and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate main contract fell on Thursday. After the previous sentiment subsided, it is expected to be widely oscillatory, with short - term short positions and long - term long positions [11]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract fell on Thursday. With the oscillation of black metals and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to be weakly oscillatory [11]. Polysilicon - The polysilicon main contract fell on Thursday. The production in August is approaching 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts is increasing. It is facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality. It is recommended to short on rebounds [12]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - The possibility of more Russian oil supply entering the market in the short term has decreased, and oil prices rose slightly on Thursday. However, the market has limited risk premium digestion, and short - term oil prices are expected to be weakly oscillatory [14]. Asphalt - Due to limited oil price changes, the asphalt main price remained almost unchanged. The spot market has slightly improved, but inventory removal is limited. Asphalt is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term [14]. PX - After the price increase due to Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance, PX supply is tight, and it is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, waiting for changes in PTA devices [14]. PTA - The PTA price declined, but there is some support from domestic and South Korean petrochemical capacity adjustments and the temporary shutdown of the Huizhou device. It is expected to be oscillatory in the short term, with attention to the downstream recovery space [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices continued to decline, and port inventories decreased slightly. It is expected to be narrowly oscillatory in the short term, with support from downstream start - up recovery, but supply pressure is still large [16]. Short - Fiber - Short - fiber prices fell slightly due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and it is recommended to short on highs in the medium term [16]. Methanol - The restart of inland devices and concentrated arrivals have pressured prices, but there is some support from the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO devices. Methanol is expected to be oscillatory [16]. PP - The supply - side pressure is increasing, and demand is showing signs of recovery. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the peak - season inventory situation of the 01 contract [16]. LLDPE - The supply - side pressure remains, and demand is showing a turning point. The 09 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory situation of the 01 contract [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - The CBOT soybean price was supported by the continuous improvement of US new - season soybean exports. The export sales of the current market year decreased, while the next - year exports increased significantly. Pakistan is expected to sign a purchase agreement [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - The pressure of continuous inventory accumulation of domestic oil mills' soybeans and soybean meal has eased, but the near - month/spot risk has not subsided. Rapeseed meal has an upward fluctuation basis due to low inventory and few long - term purchases [19]. Oils - Rapeseed oil port inventories are decreasing, and the supply of soybean oil is expected to strengthen. Palm oil is in the production - increasing cycle, and the market is expected to be oscillatory [20]. Corn - The national corn price is running weakly, but the futures price has entered a relatively low - valuation range, and the possibility of breaking through last year's range is small [20]. Hogs - Group farms continued to reduce weight in August, and the pig price did not rebound as expected at the end of August. The theoretical slaughter volume will increase in September, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. Some local areas have started purchasing and storage [20][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, with the prices of finished steel products rebounding slightly. However, the demand for finished products remained weak, and the profit of steel mills was gradually shrinking. If the demand cannot improve effectively in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material side was more resilient than the finished product side. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [4]. - The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in the market. It is necessary to be vigilant against the possibility of short - term repeated fluctuations in commodity sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities during the repeated fluctuations [11]. - The prices of industrial silicon are expected to fluctuate within the range of 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price is fluctuating and adjusting, with a support level at 47000 yuan/ton [16][17]. - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long run, it follows the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is limited [19][20]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3129 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.578%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 191,057 tons, a net increase of 6730 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.148167 million lots, a net decrease of 86,597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3385 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.074%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 24,760 tons, a net decrease of 596 tons. The position of the main contract was 778,904 lots, a net decrease of 75,256 lots [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The export volume increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The production of rebar increased, the demand improved slightly but remained weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and the inventory continued to increase. The overall production of steel was high, while the demand was insufficient, and the steel prices were severely suppressed [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.93% (+15.00), and the position increased by 17,754 lots to 472,500 lots. The weighted position was 804,600 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.63 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.77% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. The shipping volume from Australia increased, while that from Brazil declined. The near - end arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased due to the maintenance of some blast furnaces in North China. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills also decreased. The price of raw materials was strong, and the finished product fundamentals were relatively weak. The iron ore price was expected to be volatile in the short term [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fluctuated and closed up 0.17% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 48 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) fluctuated slightly lower and closed down 0.18% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The polysilicon price was resistant to decline, and the coking coal price rebounded after a coal mine accident. It is necessary to be vigilant against the short - term repeated fluctuations in commodity sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and the supply of ferrosilicon also continued to increase [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8570 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.53% (+45). The weighted contract position decreased by 7663 lots to 509,097 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 49,665 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.00% (+975). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,234 lots to 321,342 lots [14][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The production of industrial silicon increased, and the support of the demand side for prices was limited. The price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market was in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The price was affected by news and was fluctuating and adjusting, with a support level at 47,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1134 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Central China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a net decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes (-1.63% month - on - month, -11.31% year - on - year). The spot price of soda ash was 1205 yuan, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8675 million tons, a net decrease of 20,600 tons (a decrease of 1.09%) [19][20]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market had a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price adjusted slightly. In the short term, it was expected to fluctuate weakly, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long run, it followed the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space was limited [19][20].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views - On August 28, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5842, down 0.24%. The manganese - silicon should be treated as oscillating. The production has been on an upward trend since mid - May, and after the recent price recovery, the inventory has decreased for 5 consecutive weeks to a neutral level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price increased by 150 yuan/ton month - on - month. [2] - On August 28, the ferrosilicon 2511 contract was reported at 5624, down 0.60%. The ferrosilicon should also be treated as oscillating. After the profit improvement, the production has rebounded rapidly in recent weeks, and the inventory is at a neutral level. The 8 - month steel mill procurement tender price increased by 100 yuan/ton month - on - month. [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - SM (manganese - silicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,842.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan; SF (ferrosilicon)主力合约收盘价 was 5,624.00 yuan/ton, down 10.00 yuan. [2] - SM期货合约持仓量 was 550,243.00 hands, down 2,826.00 hands; SF期货合约持仓量 was 416,169.00 hands, down 5,671.00 hands. [2] - The net position of the top 20 in SM was - 73,477.00 hands, down 480.00 hands; the net position of the top 20 in SF was - 36,564.00 hands, down 1,473.00 hands. [2] - The SM1 - 9 month contract spread was 108.00 yuan/ton, up 6.00 yuan; the SF1 - 9 month contract spread was 178.00 yuan/ton, up 8.00 yuan. [2] - SM仓单 was 66,783.00 sheets, down 715.00 sheets; SF仓单 was 19,201.00 sheets, down 125.00 sheets. [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the spot market, the prices of manganese - silicon in Inner Mongolia, Guizhou, and Yunnan all decreased by 30 yuan/ton, and the prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and Ningxia all decreased by 40 yuan/ton. [2] - The SM主力合约基差 was - 122.00 yuan/ton, down 40.00 yuan; the SF主力合约基差 was - 204.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of South African ore (Mn38 block, Tianjin Port) was 24.00 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; the price of silica (98%, Northwest) was 210.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The price of Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke was 1,200.00 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu) was 680.00 yuan/ton, unchanged. [2] - The manganese ore port inventory was 444.60 million tons, down 2.00 million tons. [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The manganese - silicon enterprise start - up rate was 46.37%, up 0.62%; the ferrosilicon enterprise start - up rate was 36.52%, up 0.34%. [2] - The manganese - silicon supply was 211,190.00 tons, up 4,130.00 tons; the ferrosilicon supply was 113,400.00 tons, up 500.00 tons. [2] - The manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory was 156,000.00 tons, down 2,800.00 tons; the ferrosilicon manufacturer inventory was 62,080.00 tons, down 3,100.00 tons. [2] - The national steel mill inventory days of manganese - silicon was 14.24 days, down 1.25 days; the national steel mill inventory days of ferrosilicon was 14.25 days, down 1.13 days. [2] - The demand for manganese - silicon from the five major steel types was 125,285.00 tons, down 97.00 tons; the demand for ferrosilicon from the five major steel types was 20,275.90 tons, down 38.06 tons. [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The blast furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills was 83.34%, down 0.23%; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.27%, up 0.03%. [2] - The crude steel output was 7,965.82 million tons, down 352.58 million tons. [2] 3.6 Industry News - Personal bankruptcy local regulations have been implemented in Xiamen. [2] - Chinese chip manufacturers are seeking to triple the production of AI chips in 2026 to reduce dependence on Nvidia. [2] - PetroChina is studying the possibility of using stablecoins in cross - border settlement payments. [2] - Chinese officials visited Canada and will meet with US officials. [2]

Report Investment Ratings - SDIC Futures gives a three-star rating (★★★) for Iron Ore, Coking Coal, indicating a clear long/short trend and a relatively appropriate current investment opportunity; a white-star rating for Steel, Coke, Manganese Silicon, and Ferrosilicon, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor current market operability and a need for observation [1]. Core Views - The steel market faces negative feedback pressure, but with low inventory levels and approaching peak season, the market may stabilize with cost support. Iron ore supply and demand are marginally weakening, and it is expected to fluctuate at high levels. Coke and coking coal prices are affected by "anti-involution" policy expectations and have high short-term volatility. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices are following market trends, with relatively weak rebound strength [2][3][4]. Summary by Industry Steel - Today's steel futures strengthened. Rebar apparent demand improved, production increased, and inventory continued to accumulate. Hot-rolled coil demand and production declined slightly, with inventory also rising. Pig iron production remained high, facing negative feedback pressure, but low inventory limited the downside. With the approaching peak season, construction material demand is expected to pick up, and the market may stabilize [2]. Iron Ore - Iron ore futures rose today. Global shipments declined from the high but remained stronger than last year, and domestic arrivals decreased. Port inventory was volatile with no obvious accumulation pressure. Terminal demand improved seasonally, and although steel mill profitability weakened, there was no strong will to cut production. With the approaching parade, there were expectations of policy-driven production cuts. Overall, supply and demand are weakening, and the market is expected to fluctuate at high levels [3]. Coke - Coke prices rebounded today. With a major event approaching, coking plants in East China are expected to cut production. Pig iron production remained high, and steelmaking profits were good. After the eighth round of price increases, coking profits improved, and daily production increased slightly. Overall inventory increased slightly, and trader purchasing意愿 decreased. The market is affected by policy expectations and has high short-term volatility [4]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded today. Coking coal mine production increased slightly, and spot auction results weakened. Terminal inventory decreased slightly, while total inventory increased. With the resumption of previously shut-down mines, production-side inventory is likely to increase in the short term. The market is affected by policy expectations and has high short-term volatility [6]. Manganese Silicon - Manganese silicon prices fluctuated upward with weak rebound strength. Attention is on the shipping of South32's Australian mines. Pig iron production remained above 240, and weekly production of manganese silicon increased. Inventory did not accumulate, and both futures and spot demand were good. Manganese ore prices decreased slightly, but due to pre-event stockpiling, prices are expected to have limited downside [7]. Ferrosilicon - Ferrosilicon prices fluctuated upward with weak rebound strength. Pig iron production decreased slightly but remained above 240. Export demand remained at around 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. Metal magnesium production decreased slightly, and overall demand was okay. Supply increased significantly, and inventory decreased slightly. The market is following the trend of manganese silicon [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market cooled yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products declined slightly. The weak demand pattern of finished steel is obvious, the profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the weak characteristics of the market are becoming more prominent. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively improved, the prices still face the risk of continuous decline. The raw material side is relatively more resilient than the finished steel products. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished steel products [3]. - The supply of iron ore is in the traditional shipping off - season of overseas mines, and the pressure is not significant. The profitability of steel mills continues to decline, and the firm raw material prices have a certain impact on steel mill profits. The short - term increase in hot metal may be limited. The overall supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is not prominent for the time being, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - The prices of ferroalloys have dropped rapidly, and the market is affected by emotions. In the short term, it is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities according to their own situations. In the long run, prices will move closer to the fundamentals [10]. - The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate, and the short - term operating range is 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The price of polysilicon may be adjusted in the short term, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Glass is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and its valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long term, it follows macro - sentiment fluctuations. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [18][19]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3113 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton (- 0.79%) from the previous trading day. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3367 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton (- 0.64%) from the previous trading day. The rebar inventory continued to accumulate, and the demand was still weak. The demand for hot - rolled coils continued to recover, but the inventory had increased for six consecutive weeks [2]. - **Market Situation**: The overall demand for finished steel is weak, the production volume is still at a high level, and the demand - side support is insufficient. The profits of steel mills are gradually shrinking, and the market is showing weak characteristics. If the demand cannot improve, the prices may continue to decline [3]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 775.50 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the position increased by 1884 hands to 45.47 million hands. The weighted position was 80.06 million hands. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 40.31 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 4.94% [5]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. The demand for iron ore was basically flat, and the steel mill profitability continued to decline. The port inventory continued to rise slightly, and the steel mill's imported ore inventory decreased slightly. The overall supply - demand contradiction was not prominent [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 27, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) continued to fluctuate weakly, closing down 0.51% at 5832 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) fluctuated downward, closing down 0.39% at 5634 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Market Situation**: The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The supply of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is increasing, and attention should be paid to the changes in downstream demand [10][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8525 yuan/ton, with a change of + 0.12% (+ 10). The price is expected to fluctuate, and the short - term operating range is 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton [13][15]. - **Polysilicon**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 48690 yuan/ton, with a change of - 4.50% (- 2295). The price may be adjusted in the short term, with support levels at 47000 and 44000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The spot prices in Shahe and Central China remained unchanged. The inventory pressure increased slightly, and the downstream demand was still weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The spot price was stable, and the inventory pressure decreased. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center is expected to gradually rise in the long term, but the upward space is limited [19].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the supply and demand dynamics of the ferroalloy industry in China from 2025 to 2031, highlighting significant trends and investment prospects [1] Export Data Summary - In June 2025, China's ferroalloy export volume was 50,000 tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 30.7% [1] - The export value for the same period was $9.3 million, which reflects a year-on-year decline of 46.9% [1] Industry Analysis - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing comprehensive consulting services, including feasibility studies and customized reports [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The steel price continues to fluctuate after the macro - sentiment fades, and the glass and soda ash markets fluctuate due to repeated market sentiment. The double - silicon market sentiment cools down, and ferroalloy futures decline slightly [1][3] - For glass, the supply - demand contradiction is large, and it needs low prices and low profits to reduce supply. For soda ash, the supply - demand imbalance will intensify, and it needs to limit capacity release through losses [1] - Both the silicon manganese and silicon iron industries have obvious over - supply, and need to limit production through losses. Their prices are expected to fluctuate with the sector [3] Market Analysis Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass futures oscillated weakly yesterday, with the main 2601 contract down 1.76%. Spot trading sentiment is average. Supply is stable in production and sales, but factory inventories are growing. The supply - demand contradiction is large, and short - term premium suppresses prices. Later, attention should be paid to the performance of peak - season demand [1] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash futures declined yesterday, with the main 2601 contract down 1.8%. Spot prices were adjusted downwards, and downstream buyers purchase at low prices. Supply is increasing as summer maintenance nears the end. Consumption is currently stable but is expected to weaken with new capacity coming online. The supply - demand imbalance will intensify, and losses are needed to limit capacity release. Attention should be paid to the impact of "anti - involution" policies on the photovoltaic sector [1] Double - Silicon - **Silicon Manganese**: The silicon manganese futures declined yesterday. The main contract closed at 5862 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market oscillated. Production and sales increased month - on - month, and inventories decreased. The cost increased slightly due to a small increase in manganese ore prices. The industry has obvious over - supply, and losses are needed to limit production. Prices are expected to follow the sector, and attention should be paid to manganese ore cost support, inventory, and ore shipments [3] - **Silicon Iron**: The silicon iron futures declined slightly yesterday. The main contract closed at 5656 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan/ton from the previous day. The spot market sentiment was average, and prices were slightly adjusted. Production and sales increased, and factory inventories decreased, but absolute inventories are still high, suppressing prices. The industry has obvious over - supply, and losses are needed to limit production. Prices are expected to follow the sector, and attention should be paid to steel mill production restrictions, cost support, and industrial policies [3] Strategies - **Glass**: Oscillate weakly [2] - **Soda Ash**: Oscillate weakly [2] - **Silicon Manganese**: Oscillate [4] - **Silicon Iron**: Oscillate [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil)**: Cautiously bullish [1][3][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Cautiously bearish [1][6] - **Coke**: Cautiously bullish [1][7][9][10] - **Coking coal**: Cautiously bullish [1][11][13][14] - **Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon)**: Cautiously bearish [1][15][16][17] Core Views - **Steel**: After continuous decline, it may rebound in the short term. Rebar's demand is weak, and supply-demand is marginally loose. Hot-rolled coil's fundamentals are relatively stable, with a tendency of looser supply-demand and a high coil-rebar spread that may fall later [1][3][4][5] - **Iron ore**: Production increases, environmental restrictions are less than expected, and ports are accumulating stocks. The market is returning to a fundamentally weak logic, and prices are oscillating weakly [1][6] - **Coke**: Supply and demand are relatively stable, and it may rebound in the short term due to improved profits and strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][7][9][10] - **Coking coal**: Supply-demand is relatively stable. Although there is a downward correction space in the medium term, it may rebound in the short term due to strengthened safety supervision expectations [1][11][13][14] - **Ferroalloys**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is falling. It is advisable to short on rebounds [1][15][16][17] Summaries by Variety Rebar - **Market situation**: Blast furnace profits have declined but are still positive, and hot metal production is expected to remain stable. Demand is weak, and supply-demand is marginally loose [1][4] - **Operation suggestion**: In the medium term, there is a risk of continued decline, but in the short term, there may be a rebound at key levels [1][5] Hot-rolled Coil - **Market situation**: Production, apparent demand, and inventory have all slightly increased, and the fundamentals are relatively stable. The impact of production restrictions during the military parade is limited, and supply-demand is generally tending to be loose. The coil-rebar spread is at a relatively high level [1][4] - **Operation suggestion**: In the medium term, it will operate weakly, but in the short term, there may be a technical rebound [1][5] Iron Ore - **Market situation**: Hot metal production has increased again, environmental restrictions are less than expected, steel mills have completed restocking, and ports are accumulating stocks. Overseas ore shipments have increased while arrivals have decreased, and the fundamentals are neutrally weak [1][6] - **Operation suggestion**: Cautiously bearish [1][6] Coke - **Market situation**: Spot prices have started the eighth round of increases, and coke enterprise profits have improved. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and production and inventory are relatively stable. The "anti-involution" atmosphere in the market has subsided, but safety supervision expectations for coking coal have strengthened [1][9] - **Operation suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][10] Coking Coal - **Market situation**: Domestic production is flat month-on-month and lower than the same period last year, and Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly recently. Mine inventory has stopped decreasing, and the transfer to downstream has slowed down. Hot metal production is still at a high level, and raw material demand is stable. Futures prices have a premium over warehouse receipt costs, and there is a downward correction space in the medium term [1][13] - **Operation suggestion**: Cautiously bullish [1][14] Ferromanganese - **Market situation**: Supply-demand is tending to be loose, weekly production continues to increase, and the operating rate in Yunnan has reached a five-year high. Steel mills have completed restocking, and attention should be paid to the new round of steel procurement at the end of the month. Manganese ore shipments from three major countries have decreased, arrivals have slightly increased, and port inventory is basically flat [1][16] - **Operation suggestion**: In the short term, it is advisable to participate in short positions as the market sentiment falls and the rebound is weak [1][17] Ferrosilicon - **Market situation**: Weekly production continues to increase, demand has declined, and the fundamentals are tending to be loose. Enterprise inventory has decreased, and warehouse receipts have stopped increasing and started to decline, but the overall inventory pressure is still large [1][16] - **Operation suggestion**: In the short term, it is advisable to short on rebounds as the market sentiment falls and the rebound is weak [1][17]

Report Overview - Date: August 27, 2025 [1][4][7][11][15][17][20] - Source: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The market trends of various commodities are mainly characterized by wide - range oscillations or repeated fluctuations. Specifically, iron ore and logs are expected to oscillate repeatedly, while rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, and coking coal are expected to have wide - range oscillations [2] Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][6] - **Fundamentals**: The previous day's futures closing price was 776.5 yuan/ton, down 10.5 yuan or 1.33%. The previous day's position was 452,852 lots, down 11,978 lots. Spot prices of imported and domestic ores mostly declined. Some basis and spread values changed slightly [5] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market", involving six adjustments such as reducing purchase restrictions, housing provident funds, housing credit, and property tax [5] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [5] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Market sentiment is changeable, with wide - range oscillations [2][8] - **Fundamentals**: For RB2510, the previous day's closing price was 3,113 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan or 0.99%. For HC2510, it was 3,367 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.71%. Trading volume and positions decreased. Spot prices generally declined, and basis and spread values changed [8] - **News**: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises' production of crude steel, pig iron, and steel products increased compared to the previous period. Steel inventories increased. Other macro - related data were also reported [8][10] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][11] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of different contracts declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, while those of silicomanganese were stable. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11] - **News**: Iron alloy price information from different regions and steel mills' procurement prices were reported [12] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [14] Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Wide - range oscillations [2][15] - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of JM2601 and J2601 increased. Trading volume and positions increased. Spot prices of some coking coals changed, and coke prices were stable. Basis and spread values changed significantly [15] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [15] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both coke and coking coal [16] Logs - **Trend**: Oscillate repeatedly [2][17] - **Fundamentals**: Futures closing prices of different contracts showed slight changes, with varying trading volumes and positions. Spot prices of most log varieties were stable, and some basis and spread values changed [18] - **News**: Shanghai issued the "Six Measures for the Property Market" [20] - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [20]