投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 碳酸锂 姓名：龙奥明 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 碳酸锂 | 日报 2026 年 2 月 4 日 碳酸锂日报 专业研究·创造价值 碳酸锂震荡企稳 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 摘要 【期货市场】主力合约 LC2605.GFE 收盘价 147220 元/吨，较前日 下跌 880 元/吨，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【现货市场】碳酸锂现货价格为 152920 元/吨，较前日下跌 0.36%，近 10 个交易日整体呈现下降走势。 【基差分析】当前基差为 4260 点，正基差（现货升水），较前日 走弱 3910 点，近 10 个交易日基差整体走强。 【仓单情况】碳酸锂注册仓单量为 3 ...

Market Overview - As of February 4, the domestic lithium carbonate market is stable, with the battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%) spot settlement price at 151,500 CNY/ton, unchanged from the previous working day. There is an increase in downstream inquiries, and sellers are showing a reluctance to sell at lower prices [1] - The battery-grade lithium hydroxide (56.5% coarse particles) settlement price is also stable at 152,000 CNY/ton [1] - In the futures market, lithium carbonate futures prices have rebounded slightly, with the main contract closing at 147,220 CNY/ton, an increase of 1,920 CNY from the previous working day, and a slight recovery in open interest [1] ICC Lithium Battery Settlement Prices - As of February 4, the settlement prices for various lithium products are as follows: - Lithium concentrate: 2,030 CNY/ton - Battery-grade lithium carbonate (99.5%): 151,500 CNY/ton - Lithium hydroxide (56.5%): 152,000 CNY/ton - Lithium iron phosphate (power type): 5.24 CNY/kg - NCM materials: 20.65 CNY/kg - Prismatic energy storage cells (lithium iron phosphate): 0.375 CNY/Wh [2] Industry Focus - On February 3, Tianqi Lithium's board approved a proposal to selectively dispose of part of its equity in SQM, with a maximum of 3,565,970 shares (not exceeding 1.25% of SQM's total shares) [5] Company Insights - Current average price levels for energy storage cells suggest that second-tier companies can withstand lithium carbonate prices around 154,000 CNY [4] - Despite a general decline in lithium battery and cathode material production in February, this is largely within expectations. The reduction in lithium carbonate production is comparable to that of lithium iron phosphate, indicating that the tight balance in the market remains unchanged. Short-term upward momentum appears insufficient, while downward demand support is relatively strong. It is expected that lithium carbonate prices will continue to fluctuate between 140,000 and 160,000 CNY before the Spring Festival, with a focus on downstream companies' restocking after the holiday [6]

Core Insights - The article highlights the launch of the 2026 Global Lithium Battery Industry Chain Distribution Map, building on the success of the 2025 version, which became a phenomenon in the industry [8] - The distribution map provides a comprehensive overview of the lithium battery supply chain, covering raw materials, key materials, battery manufacturing, and end applications across major regions including China, North America, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia [3][8] Distribution Map Details - The distribution map measures 1.5 meters by 1 meter and intricately depicts the entire ecosystem of the global lithium battery industry from raw materials to end applications [3] - It has received positive feedback from industry leaders, emphasizing its clarity in showing the global landscape and the relationships within the supply chain [8] Promotion and Sponsorship - The article announces the opening of sponsorship opportunities for the 2026 distribution map, with limited seats available for brand exposure [8] - Sponsorship options include naming sponsorship, where the company's logo will be displayed alongside the organizer's, and brand sponsorship, which allows for the display of the company's name, main products, and contact information [8]

Core Viewpoint - Tian Tie Technology (300587.SZ) has completed the construction and production of its production line, but is facing challenges due to increased fixed costs and gradual capacity release, which negatively impacts overall performance [1] Group 1: Production and Financial Impact - The production line of Anhui Tian Tie Lithium Battery New Energy Co., Ltd. has been fully completed and is now in operation, leading to increased fixed asset depreciation and labor costs [1] - The company's production capacity is gradually being released, which is currently affecting overall performance [1] Group 2: Share Acquisition and Incentive Plan - The company is in the process of acquiring a 30% stake in Xinjie Energy Technology (Zhejiang) Co., Ltd., with updates to be disclosed in future announcements [1] - The performance completion of the first lock-up period of the 2025 restricted stock incentive plan will be based on audited data, and further announcements will be made [1] Group 3: Management and Operational Stability - The management team adheres to a prudent operating principle, focusing on optimizing resource allocation, enhancing technological innovation, and expanding market reach to improve competitive advantages and operational performance [1] - The current production and operational status of the company is stable, and any significant orders or business developments will be disclosed in accordance with legal requirements [1] Group 4: Goodwill Impairment - The amount of goodwill impairment will be determined after evaluation and auditing by relevant agencies, with further announcements to follow [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][61] Core Insights - The report highlights the recent policy changes by the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration regarding the capacity pricing mechanism for power generation, which aims to enhance the profitability of coal and gas power sources and stimulate investment in new energy storage projects [10] - The report indicates a significant increase in installed power generation capacity, with a total of 389 million kilowatts by the end of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1%, and emphasizes the shift towards renewable energy sources [11][12] - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment decreased to 3119 hours in 2025, down 312 hours from the previous year, indicating challenges in energy consumption efficiency amidst rapid capacity expansion [12][27] Industry Events - On January 30, 2026, a notification was issued to improve the capacity pricing mechanism for coal, gas, and pumped storage power generation, establishing a new pricing mechanism for grid-side energy storage [10] - The National Energy Administration released national electricity statistics for 2025, showing a substantial increase in solar and wind power generation capacity [11] Market Performance - During the period from January 26 to February 1, 2026, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index rose by 0.08%, while the power equipment index fell by 5.10%, underperforming the broader market [13][15] - Among the sub-sectors related to power energy, only the comprehensive energy service and hydropower sectors saw slight increases, while thermal power equipment and battery-related sectors experienced significant declines [19] Power Industry Operations - In December 2025, the total electricity consumption reached 908 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 2.77%, with a total annual consumption of 10368.2 billion kilowatt-hours, reflecting a 5.00% growth [20][22] - The newly added power generation capacity for 2025 was 54617.1558 megawatts, with notable growth in thermal and wind power, while hydropower and nuclear power saw declines [22][24] New Power System Developments - As of December 2025, the cumulative installed capacity of energy storage projects in China reached 213 GW, a year-on-year increase of 54%, with new energy storage capacity growing by 85% [44] - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various components in the photovoltaic industry, indicating stability in polysilicon prices and fluctuations in battery component prices [37][47][48] - The total number of charging infrastructure units in China reached 20.092 million by the end of December 2025, marking a 56.75% increase year-on-year [51]

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the lithium battery industry [3]. Core Insights - Lithium carbonate prices have decreased, while the average price of energy storage cells continues to rise [1]. - In December 2025, domestic battery production reached 201.7 GWh, a year-on-year increase of approximately 62% and a month-on-month increase of about 14% [1]. - The production of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cathode materials in December 2025 was 269,300 tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 32.48% [1]. - The utilization rate of production capacity for LFP cathode materials was 59.85% [1]. - The average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate as of January 30, 2026, was 148,000 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 11.90% [1]. - The average price of LFP (power type) was reported at 47,100 CNY/ton on January 9, 2026, an increase of 4.43% from January 4, 2026 [1]. - The average price of ternary power cells remained stable at 0.47 CNY/Wh as of January 30, 2026 [1]. - The monthly loading volume of LFP batteries in December 2025 was 79.8 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 30.82% [1]. - The export volume of Chinese power batteries in December 2025 was 19.0 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 47.29% [1]. Summary by Sections Production - In December 2025, the production of LFP cathode materials and batteries showed significant growth compared to the same period in 2024 [1]. Prices - The report highlights a decline in lithium carbonate prices and an increase in the prices of energy storage cells and systems [1]. Domestic Demand - The report notes a strong demand for both LFP and ternary power batteries, with record monthly loading volumes and new bidding capacities for energy storage projects [1]. Overseas Demand - The export of power batteries from China has increased significantly, indicating robust international demand for lithium batteries [1].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the significant advancements in the space photovoltaic industry, emphasizing the high barriers to entry and the advantages of China's photovoltaic supply chain in accelerating market growth [1][2]. Sub-industry Weekly Core Views Photovoltaics & Energy Storage - There is a resonance between the demand for ground data centers and space computing, with the U.S. demand for "self-controlled" photovoltaic systems intensifying, benefiting core enterprises in the photovoltaic sector [2]. - Major companies in the photovoltaic supply chain are releasing annual performance forecasts, confirming a "performance bottom" in Q4, alongside improved asset quality, positioning them well for a recovery in 2026 [1][2]. Wind Power - The UK government announced the results of the AR7 offshore wind auction, totaling 8.4 GW, exceeding market expectations of 6-7 GW, which strengthens the outlook for domestic supply chain exports amid capacity shortages in Europe [2][4]. Power Grid - The State Grid's investment plan for the 14th Five-Year Plan is set at 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase from the previous plan, establishing a strong foundation for long-term domestic market growth [3]. - Recent incidents in North America, such as transformer explosions, highlight the ongoing need for infrastructure upgrades, reinforcing the demand for new power grid solutions [3]. Lithium Batteries - New regulations on battery recycling will take effect on April 1, 2026, emphasizing a "vehicle-battery integrated scrapping" system and establishing a digital identity for batteries [3]. - Fulin Precision plans to raise 3.175 billion yuan to enhance its production of lithium iron phosphate and advance its strategic positioning in the industry [3]. Hydrogen and Fuel Cells - Inner Mongolia has optimized the economic viability of green hydrogen projects, with significant sales expected in the hydrogen vehicle market by 2025 [3][5]. - The government is actively supporting the hydrogen industry, indicating an imminent surge in development [3][5]. Recent Significant Industry Events - JunDa Co. has officially launched investments in space photovoltaic projects, expanding its product offerings [4]. - Strategic collaborations have been established between companies like Dongfang Risen and Shanghai Port for advanced photovoltaic technologies [4]. - The results of the UK AR7 offshore wind auction have been announced, with a total capacity of 8.4 GW, surpassing expectations [4].

期货日报网讯（记者 刘威魁）受供需多重因素持续影响，近期碳酸锂价格波动较大，为助力市场参与 者把握碳酸锂产业发展格局及未来趋势，加深对期货业务规则的理解，增强风险防范意识和能力，1月 30日，广期所在上海举办"新能源·向未来"碳酸锂业务专题培训，通过"现场+线上直播"相结合的模式， 面向期货公司分析师、产业企业及投资者等市场参与者，系统化讲解碳酸锂市场的运行情况，有效帮助 市场参与者及时把握行业动态、合理运用期货工具。据悉，本次活动共吸引期货公司、产业客户及其他 投资者等共计近2500人参与。 产业企业应注重加强风险管理 在国家"双碳"战略指引下，锂电产业发展迅猛，成为推动全球能源绿色低碳转型的重要引擎，产业地位 不断提升。我国锂产业在产业规模、技术经济指标、综合竞争力等方面成果突出，在全球具有一定影响 力。 2025年以来，受供需多重因素持续影响，碳酸锂价格波动较大。相关数据显示，2025年，碳酸锂价格呈 现"先抑后扬、触底反转"态势，上半年从7.8万元/吨阴跌至6月的5.9万元/吨；下半年受江西锂矿减产、 储能需求增长影响，价格反弹，四季度主力合约突破13万元/吨，较年内低点翻倍。 自碳酸锂期货上市以来， ...

Core Insights - The article highlights the launch of the 2026 Global Lithium Battery Industry Chain Distribution Map, building on the success of the 2025 version, which became a phenomenon in the industry [8] - The distribution map provides a comprehensive overview of the lithium battery supply chain, covering raw materials, key materials, battery manufacturing, and end applications across major regions including China, North America, Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia [3][8] Distribution Map Details - The distribution map measures 1.5 meters by 1 meter and intricately depicts the entire ecosystem of the global lithium battery industry [3] - It has received positive feedback from industry leaders, emphasizing its clarity in showing the global landscape and the relationships within the supply chain [8] Promotion and Sponsorship - The article announces the opening of sponsorship opportunities for the 2026 distribution map, with limited seats available for brand exposure [8] - Sponsorship options include naming sponsorship, where the company logo will be displayed alongside the organizer, and brand sponsorship, which allows for the display of company name, main products, and contact information [8]

碳酸锂日报 碳酸锂日报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） 一、研究观点 1. 昨日碳酸锂期货 2605 跌停至 132440 元/吨。现货价格方面，电池级碳酸锂平均价下跌 7500 元/吨至 160500 元/吨，工业级碳酸锂平均价下跌 7500 元/吨至 157000 元/吨，电池级氢氧化锂（粗颗粒）下 跌 5000 元/吨至 158000 元/吨。仓单方面，昨日仓单库存增加 1610 吨至 32241 吨。 2. 供给端，周度产量环比减少 648 吨至 21569 吨，其中锂辉石提锂环比减少 670 吨至 13244 吨，锂云 母产量环比减少 50 吨至 2832 吨，盐湖提锂环比增加 90 吨至 3205 吨，回收料提锂环比减少 18 吨 至 2288 吨；根据 SMM，2 月电池级碳酸锂排产环比下降 17.6%至 58835 吨，工业级碳酸锂环比下降 12.7%至 23095 吨。需求短，周度三元材料产量环比减少 203 吨至 18053 吨，库存环比减少 177 吨至 18691 吨；周度磷酸铁锂产量环比增加 904 吨至 88223 吨，库存环比增加 229 吨至 96819 吨。据 SMM，2 月 ...