Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electric power equipment and new energy sector [5]. Core Viewpoints - The recent export controls on the lithium battery supply chain are expected to enhance the competitiveness of domestic lithium battery companies, with a focus on battery and material leaders [1][4]. - The export restrictions are aimed at products heavily reliant on the domestic supply chain and those with high technical requirements, which may lead to increased export prices and protect domestic companies' technological and market advantages [2][3]. - The report highlights the anticipated surge in storage demand, which is expected to accelerate the supply-demand inflection point, recommending leading companies in the battery and material segments [4]. Summary by Sections Export Controls - The export controls target products with high domestic supply chain dependency, such as artificial graphite and ternary precursors, which account for 98.5% and 89.8% of global production, respectively [2]. - High-tech products, including batteries with energy densities greater than 300Wh/kg and lithium iron phosphate with a density greater than 2.5g/cm3, are also included in the export restrictions [2]. Domestic Competitiveness - The report suggests that the export controls align with previous national policies aimed at enhancing the lithium battery supply chain, potentially increasing export prices and curbing disorderly competition [3]. - The restrictions on high-tech products and related equipment may limit overseas competitors, particularly Japanese and Korean battery manufacturers, thereby safeguarding the technological and market share advantages of domestic firms [3]. Recommendations - The report expresses optimism about domestic lithium battery companies with global competitiveness, particularly those with overseas production capacities, and recommends leading companies in the battery and material sectors [4]. - Specific recommendations include the company "新宙邦" (Xinjubang), with a target price of 60.80 CNY and a "Buy" rating [7][10].

主办单位： 高工锂电、高工产研（GGII） 协办单位： 卡洛维德 总冠名： 海目星激光 年会特别赞助： 大族锂电 专场冠名： 英联复合集流体、逸飞激光、华视集团、欧科工业空调 金球奖全程特约赞助： 思客琦 时间&地点： 2025年11月18-20日 深圳前海华侨城JW万豪酒店 会议合作： 陈女士 13560731836（微信同号） 10 月锂电池行业排产数据再度超预期，在 9 月高基数基础上继续上行，旺季叠加 储能爆发共振下的供需拐点 确立 。 产业逻辑正在切换 ， 从被动出清产能，转向主动补库存、优质产能争夺。产业运行正推动锂电有节奏进入上行。 综合多方数据， 10 月电池排产高位上行，在 9 月的高位上环比增幅 10% 。 Top20 电池厂电池排产环比增幅超 20% ，其中储能电芯占比超过 40% 。 倒计时39天 2025（第十五届）高工锂电年会 暨十五周年庆典&高工金球奖颁奖典礼 同时，国内新能源重卡1-8月销量超10万辆，同比增长超180%。强劲增速拉动单车带电量抬高，成为驱动动力电池装机的又一增长极。 随着电芯产能在动力、储能的两大需求催化下持续吃紧 ，头部企业的议价能力与产能话语权 将 增强。 ...

国外 1. 花旗：预计9月核心通胀将有所降温 花旗经济学家预计，9月份核心CPI将上涨0.28%，低于8月份的0.35%。虽然关税可能会使商品价格保持 坚挺，但住房通胀放缓应会缓解整体服务通胀。政府关门可能会推迟数据的发布，但花旗表示，劳动力 市场走软和房价降温降低了持续通胀的风险。 2. 巴克莱：黄金上涨反映市场对现有财政与货币秩序的不信任 巴克莱全球研究主席Ajay Rajadhyaksha在一份报告中表示，今年黄金价格的上涨，标志着市场对现有财 政和货币秩序的不信任感正在加剧。他指出，四个主要经济体——美国、英国、法国和日本——的债务 负担均超过各自GDP的100%，而它们的财政状况仍在恶化。他补充说："最重要的是，几乎没有政治意 愿去进行财政整顿。"与此同时，其他传统的避险资产，例如日元和瑞士法郎，正在失去部分吸引力。 Rajadhyaksha称，黄金通常在经济摇摇欲坠或金融市场崩溃时上涨。他认为，尽管金融市场目前表现健 康，但黄金最近的上涨应该引起政策制定者的警惕。 3. 荷兰国际：预计黄金牛市将持续，但"世界和平"可能导致金价下跌 荷兰国际集团认为黄金的牛市仍有进一步上涨空间。该机构预计黄金价格将 ...

今日A股三大指数集体调整，沪指跌0.94%，深成指跌2.70%，创业板指跌4.55%，北证50指数跌1.24%，全市场成交额达2.53万亿元。 新能源板块有所承压，创业板新能源ETF国泰(159387)跌6.31%，新能源车ETF(159806)跌6.24%，碳中和50ETF(159861)跌5.06%。 下跌驱动因素分析 今日新能源板块明显回调，主要原因： 部分前期获利资金有所止盈 商务部、海关总署发布公告(2025年第58号)，决定自25年11月8日起对锂电池及中游材料等相关物项实施出口管制，称此举旨在维护国家安全与履行防 扩散等国际义务。 后市展望 锂电需求持续向好： 商用车：在以旧换新政策、电池成本下降、充换电基础设施完善等多重因素刺激下，以新能源重卡为代表的商用车市场迎来爆发式增长。且商用车市 场电池竞争格局显著优于乘用车，其需求爆发有望为电池企业带来增量弹性。 AIDC：数据中心的建设对可再生能源搭配储能电池需求将大幅增长，根据GGII预测，预计到2030年全球数据中心储能电池出货量有望达到300GWh， 2024-2030年CAGR超80%。 出海：出口管制并非首次，实质性影响或相对有限，只是加 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is positive, indicating an overweight outlook for the lithium battery sector due to recent export control measures [3][12]. Core Insights - The recent export controls on lithium batteries and related materials are expected to benefit companies with high-end product capabilities and overseas production capacity. The measures aim to prevent the uncontrolled spread of high-end lithium battery technologies and enhance China's bargaining power in international trade [3][4]. - The export restrictions are not expected to have a significant short-term impact on the battery, cathode, and anode sectors, as companies can still export through licensing and other means. The current energy density of exported liquid batteries is primarily between 200-280 Wh/kg, which means the new restrictions will have a limited effect [3][4]. - The report suggests focusing on companies like CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others that have overseas production capabilities, as the premium for high-end products is likely to increase under the new export control policies [3][4]. Summary by Sections Export Control Measures - On October 9, 2025, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on lithium batteries and artificial graphite anode materials, effective from November 8, 2025. This includes specific requirements for high energy density batteries and advanced cathode materials [3][4]. Impact on Industry - The export controls are designed to safeguard high-end technology from leaking abroad and to strengthen domestic industry competitiveness. The policy reflects a trend towards controlling the export of high-end products and technologies [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investors pay attention to battery manufacturers such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others, as well as material companies with overseas production like Hunan Youneng and others, due to their potential to benefit from the new export restrictions [3][4].

（文章来源：每日经济新闻） 国金证券指出，2025年10月锂电行业排产环比增长3%～9%，同比增长21%～50%，其中电池、负极、 电解液同比增幅超40%，主要受车市旺季及储能需求拉动。行业库存周期已进入补库阶段，部分材料如 碳酸锂、氢氧化锂价格月涨幅达20%，电芯、电解液等同步上涨。储能领域，8月国内装机同环比分别 增长58%/63%，美国市场受ITC政策调整影响短期波动但累计同比仍达46%。固态电池技术进入产业化 关键窗口期，预计2026～2027年实现示范装车，复合集流体有望在2025年四季度规模量产。当前锂电板 块市场关注度持续提升，行业供需格局改善下部分环节盈利或迎来修复。 创业板新能源ETF国泰（159387）跟踪的是创新能源指数（399266），最大涨跌幅达20%，该指数从市 场中选取涉及清洁能源生产、存储及应用等业务的上市公司证券作为指数样本，重点关注具有技术创新 能力和高成长潜力的企业，行业配置上以太阳能、风能、电动汽车及相关设备制造为主，以反映新能源 及相关产业链上市公司证券的整体表现。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On October 9, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.27% to 73,340 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,550 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,300 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton to 73,580 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased 670 tons to 42,379 tons [3]. - On October 9, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs announced export controls on multiple new - energy core materials from November 8, 2025. Three departments jointly announced the technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for vehicle purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027 [3]. - In terms of supply, the weekly output increased 119 tons to 20,635 tons. For demand, the weekly output of ternary materials increased 214 tons to 16,976 tons, and the weekly output of lithium iron phosphate increased 4,644 tons to 84,467 tons. In terms of inventory, the weekly inventory decreased 2,023 tons to 134,802 tons [3]. - After the holiday, the peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices support the price. However, there are still expectations of project复产, and with the supplement of overseas imports, the tight domestic balance will gradually ease, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Price Changes**: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 0.27% to 73,340 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was stable, while battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) dropped 50 yuan/ton. Warehouse receipt inventory increased 670 tons [3]. - **Policy News**: Export controls on new - energy core materials will be implemented from November 8, 2025. Technical requirements for new - energy vehicles eligible for purchase tax exemptions from 2026 - 2027 were announced [3]. - **Supply - Demand - Inventory Situation**: Supply increased 119 tons weekly. Demand for ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased. Inventory decreased 2,023 tons weekly [3]. - **Price Outlook**: Short - term price is expected to fluctuate due to demand support and supply - side factors [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Futures prices of lithium carbonate and related products showed various changes. For example, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures rose 540 yuan/ton, and the continuous contract rose 840 yuan/ton. Some lithium ore prices decreased, while the price of six - fluorophosphate lithium increased 3,000 yuan/ton [5]. - **Price Spreads**: Some price spreads changed, such as the battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate spread decreased 50 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Ore Prices**: Charts show the price trends of lithium - containing ores like lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone from 2024 - 2025 [6][8][9]. - **Lithium and Lithium Salt Prices**: Charts display the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide from 2024 - 2025 [10][11][13]. - **Price Spreads**: Charts present the trends of various price spreads, including the spread between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and the spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate from 2024 - 2025 [17][18]. - **Precursor & Cathode Materials**: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 - 2025 [25][26][29]. - **Lithium Battery Prices**: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 - 2025 [34][35][37]. - **Inventory**: Charts show the weekly inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links of lithium carbonate from February 20, 2025 - October 9, 2025 [39][40][42]. - **Production Costs**: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 - 2025 [43][44]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The research team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi, who have rich experience and professional titles in the field of non - ferrous metals research and new - energy industry research [47][48]. 3.5 Company Contact Information - The company is located at Building 6, Lujiazui Century Financial Plaza, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, and the fax is 021 - 80212200. The customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [51][52].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the lithium battery sector [3][9]. Core Insights - The recent export control measures on lithium batteries and related materials by the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs are aimed at preventing the uncontrolled spread of high-end lithium battery technologies and enhancing China's competitive edge in the global market [3]. - The export controls are expected to have limited short-term impact on the battery, cathode, and anode sectors, as companies can still export through licensing and other means [3]. - Companies with overseas production capacity and those producing high-end products are likely to benefit from these export restrictions, as the premium for high-end products is expected to increase [3]. Summary by Sections Export Control Details - Effective from November 8, 2025, the export control applies to lithium batteries with energy density ≥300wh/kg, high-density lithium iron phosphate, and related production equipment [3]. - The policy aims to mitigate risks of technology leakage and enhance negotiation leverage in international trade [3]. Impact on Industry - Current exports of liquid batteries mainly range from 200-280wh/kg, thus the new restrictions will have minimal effect on existing exports [3]. - The export control does not equate to a complete ban, allowing for continued exports through various channels [3]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies to watch include battery manufacturers such as CATL, Yiwei Lithium Energy, and others with overseas production capabilities [3]. - Material manufacturers with overseas capacity like Hunan Youneng and others are also highlighted as potential investment opportunities [3].

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a strong tourism data during the National Day holiday, with cross-border tourism consumption being a significant highlight, while box office performance was relatively weak [3] - The report anticipates that the third quarter earnings reports will focus on four main areas: benefiting from external interest rate cuts and emerging demand in non-ferrous metals, price stabilization in steel, coal, chemicals, and photovoltaics, steady growth in automotive, lithium batteries, electricity, and logistics, and AI-related sectors driven by domestic and international demand [3][4] Group 2: Industry Performance - The report indicates that the overall revenue of the real estate development industry shrank by 14.9% year-on-year to 1.54 trillion yuan, with a net profit loss of 867 billion yuan, marking a 157.2% decline [11] - The report emphasizes that 2025 will see a continued focus on policy-driven growth in the real estate sector, with a recommendation to prioritize investments in leading companies and those with strong fundamentals [12] Group 3: Company Insights - The report discusses China Resources Beverage's decision to relocate its registered office to Hong Kong, which is expected to enhance operational stability and investor confidence [15] - The company aims to strengthen its product matrix by focusing on multiple brands and water types, with plans to launch 14 new products in the beverage sector [16]

Core Viewpoint - The current A-share market is driven by five main factors: robust economic recovery, proactive "anti-involution" policies, significant technological advancements, the introduction of new regulatory frameworks, and favorable global liquidity conditions [1] Economic and Market Conditions - China's economic fundamentals are showing strong resilience, providing solid support for the stock market [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has reached a ten-year high, indicating strong market vitality [1] - A-share market is expected to maintain a slow bull trend, supported by both fundamental and valuation recovery [1] Policy and Regulatory Environment - The introduction of the "New National Guidelines" is expected to lay a solid institutional foundation for the high-quality development of the capital market [1] - Recent reforms, including the "1+6" reform for the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and the "merger six guidelines," are restructuring the capital market ecosystem and injecting new momentum [2] Investment Opportunities - Three main investment directions are suggested: 1. The photovoltaic industry chain and related sectors affected by valuation pressures, such as energy storage and lithium battery industries [3] 2. Traditional industries experiencing overcapacity, including steel, cement, and glass [3] 3. Emerging non-manufacturing sectors, such as the e-commerce industry [3] Market Trends and Future Outlook - The trend of mainland companies listing in both A-share and H-share markets is expected to continue, driven by policy incentives, improved liquidity in the Hong Kong market, and companies' strategic needs [2] - The new listing standards are expected to benefit companies in cutting-edge fields like commercial aerospace and artificial intelligence [2]