Market Overview - The financial sector saw a midday surge, with active performance in digital currency, gaming, steel, and innovative pharmaceuticals, while military, solid-state batteries, marine economy, and rare earth permanent magnet sectors weakened [1][8] - On July 4, the three major stock indices closed mixed: Shanghai Composite Index at 3472.32 points, up 0.32%; Shenzhen Component Index at 10508.76 points, down 0.25%; ChiNext Index at 2156.23 points, down 0.36% [1] Sector Performance - The Alzheimer's concept sector increased by 1.80%, while the cross-border payment sector rose by 1.72% [2] - The gaming sector saw a rise of 1.65%, and the banking sector also increased by 1.65% [2] - The energy metals sector experienced a decline of 3.26%, with significant drops in stocks like Yuanhang Precision and Tengyuan Cobalt [3] Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the banking, pharmaceutical, and computer sectors, while there were outflows from power equipment and non-ferrous metals sectors [4] - Specific stocks such as Wolong Nuclear Materials, GCL-Poly Energy, and Dataport saw net inflows of 1.183 billion, 532 million, and 474 million respectively [5] - Conversely, stocks like Zhongji Xuchuang, Haoshanghao, and Dongfang Caifu faced net outflows of 580 million, 475 million, and 459 million respectively [6] Institutional Insights - Jianghai Securities noted that a breakthrough of previous highs is imminent, contingent on the financial sector's performance [7] - Galaxy Securities indicated that the Shanghai Composite Index may continue to rise but requires accompanying trading volume [9] - Guotai Junan Securities suggested that the weak dollar trend may persist in the short term, with potential for an upward trend in the fourth quarter, indicating support from global markets [9]

--鑫融讯 2025 年 07 月 04 日 双融日报 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：79 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -10 0 10 20 30 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 79 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：光伏、能源金属、创新药 1、光伏主题：据上海有色网了解，为破除"内卷式"竞 争，近日国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自 7 月开始集体减产 30％，此外部分玻璃企业堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内 光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失衡的状况将获得改 善，预计 7 月国内玻璃产量将下降至 45GW 左右。相关标的： 石英股份（603688）、爱旭股份（600732） c 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生 ...

Group 1 - The current market sentiment score is 63, indicating a "relatively hot" market condition, which suggests a gradual upward trend supported by recent improvements in market sentiment and policy [5][11]. - The report highlights three key themes: photovoltaic, energy metals, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with specific companies identified for potential investment opportunities [6]. Group 2 - In the photovoltaic sector, leading domestic glass manufacturers plan to collectively reduce production by 30% starting in July, which is expected to improve the supply-demand imbalance and decrease domestic glass production to around 45GW [6]. - In the energy metals sector, the Democratic Republic of Congo has extended a temporary ban on cobalt exports for an additional three months due to high inventory levels, impacting companies like Huayou Cobalt and Tianqi Lithium [6]. - The innovative pharmaceuticals theme is supported by new measures from the National Healthcare Security Administration to enhance the use of medical insurance data in drug development, benefiting companies such as Heng Rui Medicine and BeiDa Pharmaceutical [6].

2025 年 07 月 02 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：74 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 (%) 沪深300 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 74 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：光伏、能源金属、创新药 宏观经济意外下滑、地缘政治风险、流动性收紧超预期、行 业政策低于预期。 策 略 研 c 1、光伏主题：据上海有色网了解，为破除"内卷式"竞 争，近日国内头部光伏玻璃企业计划自 7 月开始集体减产 30％，此外部分玻璃企业堵口计划开始增多，预计后续国内 光伏玻璃供应量将快速下滑，国内供需失衡的状况将获得改 善，预计 7 月国内玻璃产量将下降至 45GW 左右。相关标的： 石英股份（603688）、爱旭股份（600732） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管 ...

Group 1 - The spot gold price reached $3320 per ounce on July 1, with a year-to-date increase of over 25% as of June 30 [1] - The gold ETF (518880) showed active performance, rising 0.68% with a trading volume exceeding 1.2 billion yuan, leading among similar products [1] - A report from Galaxy Securities predicts that the COMEX gold price may steadily break through $3300 per ounce, with a potential to reach $3500 per ounce under extreme risk scenarios [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities indicates that the precious metals market will continue to differentiate in the second half of the year, with gold prices expected to rise due to weakened dollar credit and increased safe-haven demand [2] - Industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment and tight supply-demand dynamics, leading to amplified price elasticity [2] - The demand resilience in sectors like new energy vehicles and photovoltaics will support energy metals, despite being in a clearing cycle [2]

Market Sentiment - The current market sentiment score is 86, indicating an "overheated" market condition [6][10][22] - Historical trends show that when sentiment is below or close to 30, the market tends to find support, while above 90, it faces resistance [10] Hot Themes Tracking - **Storage Theme**: Major manufacturers are phasing out DDR4, with a reported 53% price increase in May, the highest since 2017. Related stocks include Jiangbolong (301308) and Zhaoyi Innovation (603586) [7] - **Energy Metals Theme**: The Democratic Republic of Congo has extended a temporary ban on cobalt exports due to high inventory levels. Related stocks include Huayou Cobalt (603799) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) [7] - **Stablecoin Theme**: The People's Bank of China discussed the transformation of monetary policy and the rise of digital currencies at the Lujiazui Forum. Related stocks include Sifang Jingchuang (300468) and Jingbeifang (002987) [7] Capital Flow Analysis - The top ten stocks with the highest net inflow include Chengfei Integration (69,333.71 million), Dongxin Peace (54,023.33 million), and Rongfa Nuclear Power (51,283.10 million) [11] - The top ten stocks with the highest net outflow include Hengbao Co. (-77,375.44 million), Dongfang Fortune (-56,211.82 million), and BYD (-53,577.85 million) [13] - The top ten industries with the highest net inflow include Defense Industry (172,656 million) and Media (121,159 million) [17] - The top ten industries with the highest net outflow include Social Services (-21,650 million) and Environmental Protection (-27,401 million) [18]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - Precious metals are expected to maintain a long-term bullish trend despite a recent 2.8% decline in domestic spot gold prices. The geopolitical instability and the weakening global position of the US dollar are anticipated to provide lasting support for gold prices [4]. - Industrial metal prices showed mixed performance, with copper prices experiencing a 1.3% increase, while aluminum prices fell by 0.5%. The decline in copper exchange inventories has raised concerns about potential short squeezes, which may lead to increased price volatility [4]. - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have seen an upward trend, while tungsten prices remained stable. The recovery in manufacturing is expected to drive demand for tungsten in cutting and wear-resistant tools [4]. - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have risen. The demand for energy metals is being closely monitored for future growth [4]. - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metal sector, particularly precious metals, with companies like Shandong Gold, Chifeng Jilong Gold, and Zijin Mining being highlighted as potential investment opportunities [4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates a bullish outlook for gold due to geopolitical tensions and the weakening dollar [4]. 1.2 Industrial Metals - SHFE copper price is at 79,920 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.3%. LME copper price is at 10,051 USD/ton, with a 3.5% weekly increase [27]. 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxides have increased, while tungsten prices have remained stable [28]. 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium hydroxide prices have decreased, while cobalt prices have increased. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand for energy metals [34]. 2. Market Data - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.91%, and the non-ferrous metal sector increased by 5.11% during the reporting period [35]. 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights ongoing competition in the copper market, with significant pressure on buyers due to declining inventories [42].

2025 年 06 月 30 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：66 分（较热） 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 66 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 1、储存主题：据《科创板日报》报道，继韩系两大存储 原厂先后放出 DDR4 停产时间，美光确定已向客户发出信件通 知 DDR4 将停产，预计未来 2~3 个季度陆续停止出货。Trend Force 数据显示，5 月 DDR4 单月涨幅 53%，创 2017 年以来最 大涨幅。相关标的：江波龙（ 301308 ）、兆易创新 （603586） 2、能源金属主题：刚果金公布，2025 年 6 月 21 日起， 战略矿产市场监管局(ARECOMS)董事会采取了重大监管措施， 鉴于市场上库存量持续高企，已决定将临时禁令的期限自本 决定生效之日起再延长三个月，适用于刚果所有源自采矿的 钴 出 口 。 相 关 标 的 ： 华 友 钴 业 （ 603799 ） 、 天 齐 锂 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 06 29 年 月 日 有色金属 需求淡季不淡，看好工业金属价格上行 黄金：地缘与关税担忧降温引发金价回调，长期牛市格局不改。近期由于地缘与关税的缓和， 黄金价格震荡整理，市场近期转向美联储降息交易。过去一周，由于美联储理事沃勒和鲍曼 的表态，市场对美联储降息预期一度上升。但紧随其后，包括美联储主席鲍威尔、纽约联储 主席威廉姆斯、旧金山联储主席戴利纷纷为降息预期降温。关税对通胀的实际影响仍有待观 察，7 月议息会议前，美国就业和通胀数据将提供重要依据。此外，市场也在关注美联储" 影 子主席人选"，特朗普偏好的更" 鸽派"的" 影子主席"会导致更激进的降息前景。影响黄金 走势的中短期因素多空交织，短期黄金或继续震荡整理。但中长期央行购金、美国高财政赤 字、美元走弱等趋势未变，黄金长期牛市格局不改。建议关注：紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰 黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：库存结构性短缺，警惕逼仓风险。①宏观方面：地缘与关税边际缓和、 美联储部分官员释放降息信号，宏观对铜的压制近期有所缓解；②库存端：本周全球铜库存 50.3 万吨，环比-1 ...