Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the significant performance of gold and silver in 2025, with gold prices increasing by over 65% and silver prices rising by 150%. Investment banks are optimistic about gold potentially challenging $5,000 per ounce and silver reaching $100 per ounce in 2026, driven by four key themes in the precious metals market [1]. Group 1: Key Themes - **Theme 1: Trump Market** Trump's statements and policies directly impact the dollar's performance. If he reignites trade disputes that could harm the U.S. economy and weaken the dollar, it would create a favorable environment for gold and silver investments. The upcoming change in the Federal Reserve chairmanship in May 2026, appointed by Trump, could also lead to significant interest rate cuts, benefiting precious metal prices [2]. - **Theme 2: Federal Reserve Rate Cuts** The expectation of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is closely tied to inflation and employment data. If these indicators suggest economic weakness, the likelihood of rate cuts increases, prompting a shift of funds into gold and silver markets for risk aversion [3]. - **Theme 3: De-dollarization and Central Bank Gold Purchases** The ongoing global trend of de-dollarization, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the U.S. debt exceeding $36 trillion, is leading central banks and financial institutions to increase their gold and silver holdings. Market concerns over U.S. fiscal discipline and potential dollar crises often precede price surges in precious metals. Additionally, the Chinese New Year is a peak time for gold purchases, warranting close attention [4]. - **Theme 4: Geopolitical Risks and Industrial Demand for Silver** Geopolitical risks significantly drive gold and silver prices, especially events involving U.S. intervention that raise concerns about fiscal deficits. Silver's industrial applications in technology sectors, such as chips and electric vehicles, also enhance its demand. Changes in China's rare earth policies could further influence silver prices in 2026 [5]. Group 2: Price Projections - The article suggests that if the aforementioned themes persist, the long-term projections for gold could reach $10,000 per ounce and for silver $300 per ounce, indicating a strong potential for price appreciation in the precious metals market [5].

Core Views - The adjustment of the financing margin ratio from 80% to 100% for new financing contracts indicates a regulatory signal aimed at cooling down the market and preventing irrational speculation risks, while still allowing for a moderate market environment [2][9][10] - The A-share market is experiencing rapid turnover and a broadening profit effect, but structural differentiation remains evident, necessitating regulatory intervention to prevent localized bubbles from spreading [2][9] Market Overview - On Wednesday, the three major indices in the A-share market initially rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index recovering losses from the previous day and reaching a new high in the current rebound, driven by strong market sentiment [5][9] - However, the market experienced a sharp decline in the afternoon following the announcement of the financing margin adjustment, leading to a collective drop in the indices, although they rebounded slightly near the close [5][9] - The total trading volume for the day was 39,415 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 4,126.09 points, down 0.31% [6] Sector Analysis - The AI sector saw significant gains, with various AI-related stocks continuing to rise, reflecting the ongoing investment opportunities in the AI industry, particularly in hardware and computing power [7] - The precious metals sector also experienced an upward trend, driven by factors such as the onset of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle, increased geopolitical tensions, and strong demand for gold as a strategic reserve [8] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to avoid blindly chasing high prices, as signals of market cooling have emerged, and sectors with excessive price increases may face adjustment pressure [3][10] - It is recommended to focus on stocks with strong earnings support and to avoid high-valuation speculative stocks, particularly in technology growth sectors and cyclical industries [3][10]

Group 1 - Precious metals and energy metals sectors experienced a collective surge, with the non-ferrous metal ETF (159871) rising by 3.45%, and Hunan Silver increasing over 9% [1] - Silver prices have historically surpassed $90 per ounce, while gold prices remain near historical highs [1] - LME tin prices have also crossed the significant threshold of $51,000 per ton, and LME copper prices have reached a record high of over $13,000 per ton [1] Group 2 - Citigroup has raised its price forecasts for gold and silver for the next three months, while Goldman Sachs has increased its copper price predictions for the first half of the year [1] - According to a report from CITIC Securities, U.S. military actions in Venezuela are intensifying geopolitical tensions, driving safe-haven investments and central bank allocations towards gold, alongside expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1] - The long-term positive trend in the non-ferrous metals sector continues, with a recommendation to focus on the non-ferrous metal ETF (159871) to capture structural opportunities [2]

Oil Market - The latest EIA weekly data shows an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, indicating significant inventory pressure and a supply surplus that limits the short-term upward potential of oil prices [1] - Oil prices initially rebounded to nearly $67 per barrel due to concerns over US-Iran tensions, but retreated after President Trump indicated a wait-and-see approach regarding the situation in Iran [1] - The global crude oil supply-demand structure for Q1 2026 suggests that unless conflicts escalate, the short-term upside for oil prices is expected to be limited [1] Precious Metals - The US reported a 3% increase in the Producer Price Index (PPI) for November, the highest since July, and retail sales rose by 0.6%, slightly above expectations, indicating a strong economic backdrop for precious metals [2] - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran continue to support the overall strength of precious metals [2] Copper Market - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations, with a focus on geopolitical risks and the impact of tariffs on trade [3] - The current spot premium for copper has narrowed to $44, indicating market adjustments as traders await inventory updates [3] Aluminum Market - The aluminum market is seeing high volatility, with prices testing historical highs but facing challenges from speculative trading and high inventory levels [4] - The profit margin for aluminum production remains above 8000 yuan per ton, prompting producers to consider hedging strategies [4] Zinc Market - The zinc market is witnessing increased capital inflow, leading to heightened bullish sentiment, although high prices are negatively impacting consumption [7] - Zinc prices have recovered all losses from 2025, but there is growing pressure for a price correction, with a focus on support levels around 23,000 yuan per ton [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing active trading, with upstream lithium salt producers shifting sales strategies towards more spot sales [11] - Total market inventory has increased by 300 tons to 110,000 tons, while downstream inventory has decreased, indicating a mixed supply-demand dynamic [11] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon market is facing weak supply and demand dynamics, with production cuts in northern regions and reduced demand from the organic silicon sector [12] - Current prices for industrial silicon are stable, but the market outlook remains cautious due to ongoing production adjustments [12] Steel Market - The steel market is showing slight price increases, but demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, leading to cautious market sentiment [14] - Steel production is gradually recovering, but overall demand from downstream industries continues to decline [14] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is experiencing weak fluctuations, with increased domestic port inventories and a seasonal decline in demand [15] - The market sentiment is mixed, with structural imbalances persisting and expectations for continued price volatility [15] Fertilizer Market - The urea market is seeing strong price increases driven by improved factory orders and seasonal demand ahead of spring [23] - The methanol market is also showing strength due to geopolitical tensions, although signs of weakening demand are emerging [24] Agricultural Products - The soybean market is under pressure from high import volumes and increased domestic processing rates, with expectations for continued weak price movements [35] - The corn market is experiencing strong fluctuations, with low overall inventory levels and increased demand from downstream users as the Spring Festival approaches [39] Livestock Market - The live pig market is seeing upward price movements, with expectations for continued pressure on supply as the Spring Festival approaches [40] - The egg market is showing signs of strength due to reduced supply and increased demand ahead of the holiday season [41]

2 2017 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 贵金属数据日报 市 市 官 方 网 客 服 热 线 站 需 有 译 风 www.itf.com.cn 400-8888-598 慎 险 2）影响因素分析：美国官员稼美国正从中东主要基地撤出人员、伊朗地缘紧张局势继续加剧，与此同时丹麦军方开始向格陵兰岛增派力量，全球地缘政治风险持 续扩散，避险需求不断升温、推升贵金属价格延续强劲上涨态势。自银方面、受宏观利好和基本面共振能动，资金青睐进一步助推脱价塑释放、加速上涨，伦敦 ffilfifilian 现货白银突破2差元/盎司共口，沪银主力突破2000元/千克关口、续刷历史新高，且在国内现货维持升水，期货baok结构加深、上期所继续去库等背景下，国内白 级课称》银涨势更为凌厉，现货进口窗口打开、沪银较伦敦银溢价持续扩大。综上，展望后市，短期在宏观和基本面支撑的双重利好下，预计贵金属价格料维持偏强运行， 但美国11月零售销售数据远超预期，11月PPI全线高于预期，表明美国经济增长仍具任性、加上短期贵金属市场情绪过热，短线回调风险不容忽视，波动成仍较为剧 烈, 建议控制仓位。后续、需继续密切关注伊朗局势进展、美联 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The capital market tightened slightly this week, with the weighted average interest rate of DR001 rising to around 1.39%. The central bank's open - market operations had a total of 13,236 billion yuan in reverse repurchase maturities this week. [4] - The three - market trading volume in Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing reached 39,872 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2,881 billion yuan from the previous day, hitting a new record high. Industry sectors showed more gains than losses. [6] - On January 19, the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges will increase the margin ratio for margin trading to curb excessive speculation. In the short term, the stock index is expected to continue rising after shock adjustment. In 2026, multiple positive factors such as macro - policy support, inflation recovery, low - interest environment, technological progress, and capital - market reform are expected to support the A - share market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions for the long - term. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Money Market - **Interest Rate Changes**: DRO01 closed at 1.39% with a 0.07bp increase; DR007 at 1.57% with a 1.94bp increase; GC001 at 1.52% with a 5.00bp increase; GC007 at 1.58% with a 1.50bp increase; SHBOR 3M at 1.60% with no change; LPR 5 - year at 3.50% with no change; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.27% with a 0.77bp increase; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.63% with a - 0.75bp decrease; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.85% with a - 0.74bp decrease; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.18% with a - 1.00bp decrease. [4] - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 240.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on the previous day, with the same bid, winning, and operation rate of 1.40%, achieving a net injection of 212.2 billion yuan. [4] 3.2 Stock Market - **Stock Index Performance**: The CSI 300 fell 0.4% to 4741.9; the SSE 50 fell 0.67% to 3112.1; the CSI 500 rose 1.04% to 8227.7; the CSI 1000 rose 0.66% to 8257.2. [6] - **Futures Contracts**: For futures contracts like IF, IH, IC, and IM, there were changes in both prices and trading volumes. For example, IF's trading volume increased by 20.6%, and its holding volume increased by 4.0%. [6] - **Industry Performance**: Internet services, software development, cultural media, communication equipment, mining, and precious metals sectors led the gains, while energy metals, insurance, banking, and airport sectors led the losses. [6] 3.3 Futures Market - **Futures Ascending/Descending Water Situation**: The ascending/descending water rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods (current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter) are presented, such as IF's current - month contract with an ascending water rate of 16.67%. [8]

日前，贵金属市场延续强势表现，白银领涨。国内白银期货大涨8%，再创上市以来新高。伦敦现货银 价也历史性地突破90美元/盎司关口。 在突破新高后，贵金属价格回调。 展望后市，兴业证券认为，银价长期中枢抬升，工业属性放大弹性。美元周期定方向，金银长期中枢上 移的趋势不变；工业属性扩弹性，当经济周期上行或者宽财政、宽流动性时，金银比的阶段性修复行情 会彰显白银价格的弹性。当前，外国投资者持有美国国债占比持续下降，根据特里芬悖论，美元无法保 持长期的稳定性，货币属性的回摆将持续抬升金银的价格中枢。 1月15日，现货黄金失守4580美元/盎司，截止发稿，日内下跌0.44%；现货白银失守89美元/盎司，日内 下跌超5%。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is experiencing significant growth, with the popular ETF, Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876), hitting a new historical high and attracting substantial capital inflow [1][9]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Huabao Non-ferrous ETF (159876) saw an increase of 3.23% and 2.69%, marking five consecutive days of gains and setting a new historical high [1][9]. - As of the report, the ETF received a net subscription of 38.4 million units, accumulating a total of 440 million yuan in the past ten days [1][9]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - In the gold sector, Xian Financial Securities suggests that the U.S. faces recession pressures, high sovereign debt, and trade deficits, which weaken the dollar's credibility, leading to increased focus on gold as a global asset [2][10]. - For copper, China Galaxy Securities indicates that there is still significant upward potential for copper prices, as historical data shows that current prices, adjusted for inflation, have not reached previous supercycle highs [3][11]. - Strategic metals like tungsten, molybdenum, titanium, and rare earths are expected to see increased demand due to technological revolutions and supply chain security concerns, as noted by CITIC Securities [3][11]. Group 3: Stock Performance - Key stocks in the non-ferrous metal sector include Huaxi Non-ferrous, Hunan Silver, and Huayou Cobalt, all of which have surged over 7% [4][12]. - Other notable performers include Ganfeng Lithium, which rose over 6%, and several other stocks that experienced significant gains [4][12]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The industry is expected to enter a supercycle driven by the convergence of AI advancements and global order restructuring, with historical parallels drawn to significant macroeconomic events [5][13]. - Institutions predict a bullish market for non-ferrous metals, with expectations of a synchronized upward trend in currency, demand, and supply by 2026 [5][13].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 文章来源：金十数据 白银周四早盘大幅走低。现货白银日内一度重挫超6美元，跌超6%，截至发稿报88.3美元/盎司，从周三 的历史高位回落。此前美国总统特朗普暂缓对进口关键矿产加征新关税，但并未排除此可能性。 随着特朗普表示将就确保关键矿产充足供应进行双边协议谈判，市场对美国对白银、铂金和钯金加征关 税的担忧暂时得到缓解。根据周三晚些时候的一份声明，他提出了对进口产品设定价格底线——而不仅 仅是基于百分比的关税，以发展供应链。 "该命令表明政府在未来决策中将采取更具针对性的方式，"道明证券（TD Securities）高级大宗商品策 略师丹尼尔·加利（Daniel Ghali）在一份报告中写道。这"显著减轻了市场的一种忧虑，即担心广泛的关 税措施可能会在无意中冲击那些作为基准金属价格定价基础的实物银条。" 此前，由于地缘政治、供应和关税的不确定性，投资者转向硬资产，周三金属价格曾广泛上涨，导致白 银和黄金以及铜和锡创下新高。中国和美国的疯狂购买以及更广泛的大宗商品投资推动了该行业的发 展。 由于银价涨势持续超过黄金，金银比跌破50大关，为2012年 ...

无人驾驶概念拉升，索菱股份、威帝股份涨停，万集科技、浙江世宝等冲高。 | < > | 无人驾驶 2399.47 -0.29% | | E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 成份股 | 股吧 | | 资讯 | | 名称 | 最新 | 涨幅 ↓ | 涨跌 | | 汉墓科技 920092 融 | 53.30 | 12.45% | 5.90 | | 索菱股份 002766 | 7.70 | 10.00% | 0.70 | | 威常股分 603023 | 5.94 | 10.00% | 0.54 | | 万集科技 300552 | 39.98 | 8.46% | 3.12 | | 浙江世宇 002703 融 | 27.75 | 6.77% | 1.76 | | 亚太股份 | 17.71 | 6.56% | 1.09 | | 002284 註 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 豪恩汽电 | 171.06 | 6.18% | 9.95 | | 301488 註 | | | | | 唐源电气 | 25.30 | 5.42% | 1.30 | | 300789 | ...