Group 1: Investment Projects and Production Capacity - The company is processing 150,000 tons of copper concentrate, with a target of optimizing to 80,000 tons, and has achieved production standards for the comprehensive recovery project, excluding precious metals [2] - The high-performance rolled copper strip and rolled copper-clad laminate projects are in trial production, with production capacity not fully released due to market development [2] - The copper mine tailings project has been completed and is in use, contributing positively to financial indicators as production processes improve [2] Group 2: Rare Metals and Product Diversification - The company’s smelting recovery products include valuable metals such as gold, silver, selenium, tellurium, platinum, palladium, and rhenium [3] - There is an ongoing effort to explore and develop new mining sources to enhance mineral reserves and production capacity [5] Group 3: Shareholder and Market Management - The profit distribution plan for 2024 will be implemented within two months after approval by the shareholders' meeting, with the cash dividend record date yet to be determined [3] - The company emphasizes value management and plans to improve its market valuation through compliant practices and effective management strategies [4] Group 4: Mining Rights and Resource Exploration - The deep mining rights for the copper mine have been completed, and the resource reserve report is currently under review [3] - The company is actively pursuing new breakthroughs in domestic copper resource exploration, aligning with national mining strategies [5] Group 5: Industry Challenges and Strategic Development - The company acknowledges the intense competition and high environmental standards in the copper and gold smelting industry, which have impacted profitability [5] - Plans are in place to accelerate the trial production of differentiated high-end copper products to capture market share and establish core competitiveness [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai Copper main contract fluctuated and declined, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Internationally, Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts and economic situations. Domestically, the economy showed stable growth in April. Fundamentally, the global supply of copper concentrates remains tight, while domestic copper port inventories are increasing. Supply is growing steadily due to sufficient domestic raw materials and favorable copper prices. Demand is limited as copper prices are high and downstream processing plants are cautious in purchasing. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai Copper may show a slight increase in supply, a slowdown in demand, and a small accumulation of industry inventory. In the options market, the sentiment is bearish, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased. The technical indicator 60 - minute MACD shows the double - line below the 0 - axis with an expanding green column. The operation suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and control the rhythm and trading risks [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Copper futures main contract was 77,540 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan; the LME 3 - month copper price was 9,470 dollars/ton, down 53.5 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread was 290 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the open interest of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 166,088 lots, down 5,147 lots. The top 20 long positions in Shanghai Copper futures were 11,331 lots, up 1,635 lots. The LME copper inventory was 174,325 tons, down 5,050 tons; the SHFE cathode copper inventory was 108,142 tons, up 27,437 tons; the SHFE cathode copper warrant was 45,738 tons, down 2,856 tons [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The SMM 1 copper spot price was 78,340 yuan/ton, up 230 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot price was 78,290 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 110 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper was 95 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars. The basis of the CU main contract was 800 yuan/ton, up 510 yuan; the LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread was 15.52 dollars/ton, down 15.93 dollars [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates in April was 292.44 million tons, up 53.13 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters was - 43.05 dollars/kiloton, up 0.06 dollars. The price of copper concentrates in Jiangxi was 68,630 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan; in Yunnan, it was 69,330 yuan/metal ton, up 240 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the South was 700 yuan/ton, unchanged; in the North, it was 750 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper in April was 125.40 million tons, up 0.60 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, down 30,000 tons. The social inventory of copper was 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai was 55,090 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the price of 2 copper in Shanghai was 66,600 yuan/ton, down 550 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper was 490 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products in April was 208.10 million tons (no comparison data). The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure was 956.22 billion yuan, up 520.01 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development was 27,729.57 billion yuan, up 7,825.40 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits was 4,167,000,000 pieces, down 30,199,900 pieces [2] 3.6 Options Situation - The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Copper was 11.02%, down 0.03%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 24.24%, down 0.09%. The implied volatility of the current - month at - the - money option was 13.76%, down 0.0141%; the call - put ratio of at - the - money options was 0.94, up 0.0220 [2] 3.7 Industry News - In April, China's economy grew steadily. The added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.1% year - on - year, and the social consumer goods retail总额 increased by 5.1%. The national urban surveyed unemployment rate in April was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points. The real estate development investment from January to April decreased by 10.3% year - on - year. In April, new home prices in first - and second - tier cities were flat month - on - month, and slightly decreased in third - tier cities. A new round of deposit - rate cuts is about to take place. The EU has lowered its economic growth forecast for Europe. Fed officials have different statements on interest - rate cuts and economic situations. In April 2025, China's alumina exports increased significantly while imports decreased sharply [2]

数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 沪铜产业日报 2025/5/15 | | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,870.00 | -1070.00↓ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9,480.00 | -126.50↓ | | | 主力合约隔月价差(日,元/吨) | 370.00 | -110.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪铜(日,手) | 186,574.00 | -7337.00↓ | | | 期货前20名持仓:沪铜(日,手) | 10,701.00 | +9143.00↑ LME铜:库存(日,吨) | 185,575.00 | -4075.00↓ | | | 上期所库存:阴极铜(周,吨) | 80,705.00 | -8602.00↓ LME铜:注销仓单(日,吨) | 77,650.00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The copper market is experiencing a slight decline in prices due to a combination of macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and fluctuating demand from various industries [1] Macroeconomic Factors - Progress in US-China tariff negotiations has reduced market risk aversion, with only 26% of fund managers believing in a hard landing, down from 49% in April [1] Supply Dynamics - There is a tight supply of copper concentrate, with limited short-term increases in global supply despite advancements in technology and exploration capabilities [1] - The competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to downward pressure on processing fees for imported ore and squeezing profits [1] Demand Trends - SMM forecasts a decrease in the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to 71.01% in May, down 2.83 percentage points month-on-month but up 8.17 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The operating rate for the enameled wire industry is expected to decline to 69.81%, a decrease of 6.98 percentage points month-on-month [1] - In April, the production of photovoltaic modules by major Chinese companies reached 55 GW, a month-on-month increase of 3.38% and year-on-year stability [1] - The production of battery cells in April was 59.8 GW, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 10.13% but a year-on-year decrease of 1.97% [1] - Cumulative inventory of new energy vehicles in China reached 788,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 47% and a month-on-month increase of 8% [1] Inventory Levels - LME copper inventory decreased by 1,100 tons to 190,750 tons, while the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper warehouse receipts increased by 9,073 tons to 29,157 tons [1] Market Outlook - The market sentiment improved on May 13 due to progress in US-China tariff negotiations, although COMEX inventories continue to rise [1]

期货热点追踪 Adani铜冶炼厂投产倒计时！印度"去进口化"豪赌将如何冲击全球铜市？ 相关链接 ...

我国精炼铜的产能位居世界第一，但受资源禀赋限制，每年需要大量进口铜精矿。2022年我国精炼铜产 量1053.4万吨，占全球总量的41%，其中原生铜冶炼约占70%。当年进口铜精矿2532万吨，对外依存度 达80%。目前铜产量仍不能达到国内铜消费水平，铜冶炼产能会进一步扩张，铜精矿缺口将继续扩大。 为充分利用海外铜精矿资源，保障原料供应，促进我国铜冶炼降本提质，2019年以来，海关总署已先后 批准5家企业在港口保税区开展进口铜精矿混矿业务（即"保税混矿"），就是将来自海外的超标铜精矿 与洁净矿在保税区内进行物理混匀，混合达标再报关，经检验合格后输送至国内铜冶炼企业。 我国《关于公布进口铜精矿中有毒有害元素限量的公告》对进口铜精矿中砷（As）元素限量规定不得 大于0.5%，比国际上的限值标准（通常为0.2%，例如日本和美国）高0.3%。因此，扩大铜精矿的进口 存在一定的环境隐忧。 铜精矿中的砷在高温下挥发进入烟气、造渣进入炉渣，烟气中砷部分收集在白烟尘，剩余进入制酸系统 的污酸中，经中和处理进入产出的炉渣中。最终约0.06%的砷随废气排放，0.04%的砷进入成品硫酸， 99.9%进入含砷固废。砷污染物一旦进入环境， ...

Group 1: Consumer Price Index (CPI) Insights - In April, the CPI increased by 0.1% month-on-month and decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, indicating a shift from decline to growth in the month-on-month comparison [1][3] - Food prices rose by 0.2%, while non-food prices increased by 0.1%, with service prices up by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery [3][4] - The core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.5% year-on-year, reflecting stable supply-demand dynamics [3][10] Group 2: Producer Price Index (PPI) Trends - The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, with the decline attributed to international input factors and seasonal drops in energy prices [1][9] - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price stabilization, with black metal and non-metal mineral product prices experiencing reduced year-on-year declines [5][6] - The PPI's month-on-month decline was influenced by falling prices in the petroleum and natural gas extraction sectors, as well as in the non-ferrous metal industries [9][10] Group 3: Economic Policies and Market Dynamics - The People's Bank of China noted that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand are beginning to take effect, which is expected to support a moderate recovery in price levels [1][10] - Recent macroeconomic policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are designed to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [10] - The upcoming holiday seasons are anticipated to boost service prices, contributing to a potential recovery in the core CPI [10]

Core Insights - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.1% month-on-month in April, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.1%. The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and by 2.7% year-on-year [1][2]. CPI Analysis - The month-on-month CPI change shifted from decline to increase, with a core CPI increase of 0.2% month-on-month and a stable year-on-year increase of 0.5%. This reflects the resilience of the economy [2][4]. - Food prices rose by 0.2%, and service prices increased by 0.3%, driven by seasonal factors and demand recovery during the holiday period [3][4]. PPI Analysis - The PPI's month-on-month decline of 0.4% was consistent with the previous month, influenced by international factors and seasonal declines in energy prices [8][10]. - Certain industrial sectors showed signs of price recovery, with reduced year-on-year declines in sectors such as black metal smelting and non-metallic mineral products [5][6]. Sector Performance - High-tech industries and construction activities contributed to a positive trend in some industrial prices, with specific sectors like wearable smart devices and aircraft manufacturing showing price increases [5][6]. - The international oil price decline negatively impacted domestic oil-related industries, leading to price drops in sectors such as petroleum extraction and refining [10]. Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China anticipates that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand will support a moderate recovery in price levels [2][11]. - Recent monetary policies, including interest rate cuts and structural tools, are expected to stimulate domestic demand and support price stability [11].

沪铜产业日报 2025/5/6 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建 议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发， 需注明出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | | 撰写人：王福辉 从业资格证号：F03123381 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0019878 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | 期货市场 | 期货主力合约收盘价:沪铜(日,元/吨) | 77,600.00 | +380.00↑ LME3个月铜(日,美元/吨) | 9, ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The real - estate market is gradually stabilizing, and the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide has increased year - on - year. In April, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, and the new order index was 49.2%, a 2.6 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing market demand [4][39]. - Global refined copper supply and consumption are both weak, with an overall slight surplus in copper supply and demand. Chinese copper smelters' TC and RC continue to decline significantly, and Chinese refined copper production keeps growing with an expanding growth rate recently. The spread between refined and scrap copper is gradually narrowing. Copper product output decreased month - on - month but continued to grow year - on - year. The terminal consumption market continued the positive trend [6][39]. - Shanghai copper inventory has decreased significantly. LME copper inventory has decreased slightly, while COMEX copper inventory has increased significantly. Overall, copper prices may show a volatile trend [7][39]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In early April, affected by US tariff policies, the price of the main Shanghai copper futures contract dropped significantly. As uncertainties were gradually released, the copper price rebounded and entered a volatile trend at the end of the month. The price range was about 71,140 - 78,480 yuan/ton. The price trend of the LME copper futures contract was similar to that of the main Shanghai copper futures contract, with an operating range of about 8,105 - 9,479 US dollars/ton [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Environment 2.1 Real - estate Data Continued to Stabilize - From January to March, national real - estate development investment was 1.9904 trillion yuan, a 9.9% year - on - year decrease; residential investment was 1.5133 trillion yuan, a 9.0% decrease. Real - estate development enterprises' housing construction area, new construction area, completion area, new commercial housing sales area, and sales volume all showed varying degrees of decline, but the decline in sales area and volume narrowed [12][14]. 2.2 The Total Profit of Industrial Enterprises above the Designated Size Nationwide Increased Year - on - Year - From January to March, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 1.50936 trillion yuan, a 0.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit decreased by 1.4%, joint - stock enterprises' profit increased by 0.1%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 2.8%, and private enterprises' profit decreased by 0.3%. Profits in different industries showed different trends [18][19]. 3. Supply Side 3.1 Rapid Growth in Refined Copper Production - In February 2025, global primary refined copper production was 1,822 thousand tons, recycled refined copper production was 378 thousand tons, and the total supply was 2,200 thousand tons, while consumption was 2,139 thousand tons, with an increase of 61 thousand tons. As of March 2025, monthly refined copper production was 1.248 million tons, an increase of 0.006 million tons from the previous month and an 8.6% year - on - year increase. As of April 29, 2025, the refined copper price in Shanghai Wumaom was 78,090 yuan/ton, and the scrap copper price in Foshan, Guangdong was 71,700 yuan/ton, with a refined - scrap spread of - 780 yuan/ton [23]. 4. Demand Side 4.1 Copper Product Output Increased Year - on - Year - In March 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.1252 million tons, showing year - on - year growth. The monthly investment in power grid construction was 95.6 billion yuan, a 24.8% year - on - year increase [31]. 5. Inventory Side 5.1 Shanghai Copper Inventory Decreased Significantly - As of April 30, 2025, the cathode copper inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 89,307 tons, a decrease of 27,446 tons from the previous week. As of April 28, 2025, LME copper inventory was 202,800 tons, a decrease of 650 tons from the previous trading day, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 35.26%. As of April 29, 2025, COMEX copper inventory was 137,759 tons, an increase of 2,615 tons from the previous trading day. As of April 28, 2025, the inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 95,800 tons, a decrease of 15,400 tons from the previous week [35]. 6. Outlook 6.1 Analysis of Price Trend Factors - Factors affecting copper prices include Chinese economic policies (real - estate market stabilization, industrial enterprise profit growth), supply (slight surplus of global refined copper, growing copper production), demand (accelerated power grid investment, year - on - year growth of copper product output), and inventory (significant decrease in Shanghai copper inventory) [38]. 6.2 Outlook - The real - estate market continued to stabilize, and the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size nationwide increased year - on - year. Manufacturing market demand declined. Global refined copper supply and consumption were weak, with a slight surplus. Chinese refined copper production continued to grow, and the refined - scrap copper spread gradually narrowed. Copper product output decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. The terminal consumption market continued to improve. Shanghai copper inventory decreased, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, and COMEX copper inventory increased significantly. Overall, copper prices may show a volatile trend [39].