| 工G国留留信 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 色金属数据目报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 投资咨询号:Z0015300 从业资格号:F3043701 | 国贸期货研究员 | 方言詞 | 2025/11/05 | 投资咨询号:Z0015788 从业资格号:F3040017 | 有色金属研究中心 谢灵 | | | | | | | | | | | 价格指标 | 变化（%） | 变化 (%) | 15:00期货价格 | 现货价格 | 图表 | 10872. 5 | -0. 3 | -0. 27 | 10855. 5 | 铜 | LME有色金属期货库存(吨) | | | | | 0.8 | 锌 | 3190 | 0. 63 | 3090 | 1500000 | LME | 品 | -0. 25 | 1995 | 2893 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but macro - support has weakened. Base metals may rise first and then fall. One can cautiously focus on the opportunity for aluminum ingot price to catch up, and also consider low - buying opportunities for copper after price decline. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term; the alumina price is under pressure and oscillating; the aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and may see its price center rise in the medium term; the aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and oscillating in the medium term; the zinc price is expected to be oscillating; the lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish; the nickel price is expected to be oscillating; the stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound; the tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [9][13][14][16][18][21][23][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - **Information Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October. The SMM China electrolytic copper production in September decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline. The spot copper price showed a certain change on November 4, and the copper inventory increased. The China - US presidents met in late October, agreeing to strengthen cooperation [8]. - **Main Logic**: The Fed's interest - rate cut and Powell's hawkish remarks led to a short - term adjustment in copper prices. The supply of copper ore is tightening, and the production of electrolytic copper may decline. The high price restricts demand, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [9]. - **Outlook**: The copper price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - to - long term [9]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the alumina spot price in the north remained flat, while the national weighted index declined slightly. The alumina warehouse receipts increased [9]. - **Main Logic**: The high - cost production capacity has fluctuations, and the supply contraction is not obvious. The domestic market is in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. The price is under pressure, but more funds are starting to pay attention to it [9][10]. - **Outlook**: The alumina price is expected to be under pressure and oscillating [9]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the SMM AOO aluminum price remained unchanged. The aluminum rod and electrolytic aluminum ingot inventories showed certain changes. A new project will be put into production, and some regions have implemented environmental protection policies. Some aluminum has been transported to the US, and a large proportion of LME aluminum warehouse receipts are held [11][12]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment is positive. The domestic supply is at a high level with some environmental protection restrictions, and the overseas supply has disruptions. The demand is stable, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory trends [13]. - **Outlook**: The aluminum price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and may see its price center rise in the medium term [13]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the price of ADC12 decreased. The estimated retail sales of narrow - sense passenger cars in October decreased slightly [14]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing cost support. The supply side has some production - reduction risks, and the demand is marginally improving. Attention should be paid to the purchase - tax policy [14]. - **Outlook**: The aluminum alloy price is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term and oscillating in the medium term [14]. 3.1.5 Zinc - **Information Analysis**: The spot zinc price showed a certain discount on November 4. The zinc inventory increased slightly. A mine in Australia had production problems [15]. - **Main Logic**: The macro - environment is positive. The short - term supply of zinc ore is loose, and the refinery's profit is good. The demand is in the off - season. The zinc price may be in high - level oscillation in the short term and may decline in the long term [16]. - **Outlook**: The zinc price is expected to be oscillating [16]. 3.1.6 Lead - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries remained unchanged, and the lead price increased slightly. The lead inventory increased slightly, and some enterprises had production changes [17]. - **Main Logic**: The spot premium increased slightly, the supply side has a complex situation, and the demand side is in the peak season. The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish [18]. - **Outlook**: The lead price is expected to be volatile and bullish [18]. 3.1.7 Nickel - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the LME nickel inventory remained unchanged, and the domestic nickel warehouse receipts decreased. The global visible inventory is increasing. Some companies have project progress [19][20]. - **Main Logic**: Market sentiment dominates the market. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the inventory is increasing. The price is expected to be oscillating [21]. - **Outlook**: The nickel price is expected to be oscillating [21]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - **Information Analysis**: The stainless - steel futures warehouse receipts decreased. The spot price showed a certain premium. The price of high - nickel pig iron decreased [22]. - **Main Logic**: The prices of nickel iron and chromium have declined, weakening cost support. The production has increased, but demand acceptance is limited. The inventory may accumulate [22]. - **Outlook**: The stainless - steel price is expected to be range - bound [23]. 3.1.9 Tin - **Information Analysis**: On November 4, the LME and Shanghai tin warehouse receipts increased, and the Shanghai tin position decreased. The spot tin price remained unchanged [24][25]. - **Main Logic**: The supply of tin is restricted, but the inventory is starting to accumulate, which limits the price increase. The price is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. - **Outlook**: The tin price is expected to be volatile and bullish [25]. 3.2行情监测 No specific content for analysis in the provided text. 3.3 Market Indexes - On November 4, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities: the commodity index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial products index was 2213.57, down 1.07%. The non - ferrous metals index on November 4, 2025, had a daily decline of 1.11%, a 5 - day decline of 1.91%, a 1 - month increase of 2.49%, and a year - to - date increase of 6.86% [149][151].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★★★ [1] - Tin: ★★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, zinc, etc., and provides short - term trend judgments and investment suggestions for each metal [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - The open interest of Shanghai copper futures fell below the MA20 moving average. The US ISM manufacturing PMI has been shrinking for eight consecutive months, and high copper prices in China are suppressing demand. The copper price is expected to continue to correct after short - term high - level fluctuations. Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - The price of Shanghai aluminum declined. The social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 0.80 thousand tons at the beginning of the week. The aluminum market is mainly driven by macro - sentiment, with limited resonance in fundamentals. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term. Cast aluminum alloy follows the aluminum price and has no independent market. Alumina has an oversupply situation, with limited rebound space [2] Zinc - The LME zinc inventory continued to decline, supporting the spot premium. The domestic zinc price was also supported by the decline in domestic and foreign TC. After the consumption peak season ended, the long - position funds took profits. The zinc price is expected to find support around 22,200 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - The price of Shanghai nickel fluctuated narrowly. The downstream demand was weak. The reduction in production by stainless - steel plants needs further observation. The price of pure nickel inventory decreased, while the inventory of nickel - iron and stainless steel increased. The price of Shanghai nickel is expected to move downward [6] Tin - The price of Shanghai tin fluctuated and closed lower. The domestic tin supply is in a real shortage. It is advisable to short on rallies or wait for a clear breakdown [7] Lithium Carbonate - The price of lithium carbonate fluctuated at a high level. The market supply and demand were strong. The total market inventory decreased. The price of Australian ore strengthened again. It is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [8] Industrial Silicon - The price of industrial silicon futures declined significantly, affected by the polysilicon market sentiment. The supply is shrinking, and the demand is also weakening. The short - term price will fluctuate, with limited upside space [9] Polysilicon - The price of polysilicon futures declined significantly. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers continued to rise. The market is expected to enter a range - bound consolidation phase in the short term [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Report Core Views - Overall, in the context of continued tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, maintain a strategy of buying on dips for copper; for aluminum, hold on dips in the long - term due to good domestic apparent demand and potential overseas supply disruptions; for zinc, with poor domestic fundamentals but potential supply reduction at the end of the year, suggest a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading, focus on reverse arbitrage opportunities, and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity between December and February; for nickel and stainless steel, due to weak fundamentals and potential policy support in Indonesia, look for short - selling opportunities; for lead, expect narrow - range oscillations in lead prices and suggest cautious operation; for tin, follow the macro - sentiment in the short - term and hold on dips in the medium - to - long - term; for industrial silicon, expect price oscillations in the short - term and cycle - bottom oscillations in the medium - to - long - term; for lithium carbonate, the price may change in the medium - to - long - term if certain demand conditions are met [1][2][3][7][8][10][11] Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Market行情受关税谈判进展主导，中美谈判后铜价回落测试10日均线支撑 [1] - 下游开工回落，高价下维持刚需接货，库存小幅去化略超预期，关注废铜政策对精废替代的影响 [1] - 听闻部分矿山在1.1w美金价位入场保值，伦铜近期可能有中等量级交仓到货，短期情绪或转冷静 [1] - 维持回调买入思路，关注伦铜1.03w美金附近支撑，可考虑卖1.03w以下看跌期权或逐步建立虚拟库存 [1] Aluminum - 国内表需好，铝水比例高，铝锭与铝材去库，海外供给有停产扰动推动价格上行 [1] - 中美经贸关系好转，美联储降息后停止缩表，需求边际好转 [1] - 低库存下长期以逢低持有为主 [1] Zinc - 本周锌价震荡上行，供应端国产和进口TC加速下滑，四季度至明年一季度国产矿边际走紧，11月火烧云锌锭投产但增量兑现待考察 [2] - 需求端内需季节性疲软，海外欧洲需求一般，部分炼厂生产有阻力，国内社库震荡，海外LME库存去化，出口窗口打开 [2] - 国内基本面现实较差，但年底供应端有阶段性减量，价格重心难深跌，短期单边建议观望，关注反套和12 - 02月差正套机会 [2] Nickel - 供应端纯镍产量高位维持，需求端整体偏弱，升水平稳，库存端国内外持续累库，短期基本面偏弱 [3] - 印尼矿端扰动持续，政策端有挺价动机，关注逢高空配机会 [3] Stainless Steel - 供应端钢厂10月排产环比小幅增加，需求端以刚需为主，成本方面镍铁、铬铁价格维持，库存高位维持 [7] - 印尼政策端有挺价动机，关注逢高空配机会 [7] Lead - 本周铅下游减产致铅价下跌，供应侧报废量同比偏弱，再生利润恢复激励复产但进度慢，精矿开工增加但供应紧张 [8] - 需求侧电池开工率下滑，成品库存高，需求有走弱预期，精废价差变化，再生复产出料 [8] - 预计下周内外铅价在17200 - 17500区间窄幅震荡，建议观望再生复产和仓单增加情况谨慎操作 [8] Tin - 本周锡价震荡，供应端矿端加工费低位，云锡检修结束，海外佤邦产出有分歧，印尼短期部分停产 [10] - 需求端高价下由刚性支撑，下游接单心理价位提高，海外LME库存低位震荡恢复 [10] - 国内基本面短期供需双弱，短期跟随宏观情绪，若宏观有系统性风险锡价下行空间大，中长期贴近成本线逢低持有 [10] Industrial Silicon - 本周新疆头部企业开工稳定，后续川滇开工数量将减少，枯水期供给环比下滑，但Q4供需处于平衡偏宽松状态，月度累库约3万吨 [11] - 短期价格预计震荡运行，中长期价格走势预计以季节性边际成本为锚的周期底部震荡为主 [11] Lithium Carbonate - 本周五受江西矿山复产传闻影响价格快速回落，原料端海外矿端挺价，市场可流通精矿现货偏紧 [11] - 锂盐端企业惜售，市场低价货源少，期现商难补库，下游在价格上行时观望，回调后买盘增强 [11] - 基差调整有限，成交集中在01 - 400至01 + 0元区间，若储能需求高景气且动力需求稳定，中长期格局转变时点可能在未来1 - 2年出现 [11]

Core Viewpoint - The company, Shenzhen Zhongjin Lingnan Nonfemet Company Limited, has announced the early redemption of its convertible bonds, "Zhongjin Convertible Bonds," due to the fulfillment of specific redemption conditions. Group 1: Redemption Details - The redemption price for "Zhongjin Convertible Bonds" is set at 100.70 CNY per bond, including accrued interest at an annual rate of 2.00% [1][13][14] - The redemption conditions are met as of October 30, 2025, with the redemption registration date on November 25, 2025, and the actual redemption date on November 26, 2025 [2][12][20] - The bonds will cease trading on November 21, 2025, and the conversion of bonds will stop on the redemption date [2][20] Group 2: Bond Issuance Overview - The company issued 38 million convertible bonds on July 20, 2020, with a total amount of 380 million CNY and a maturity of six years [5] - The initial conversion price was set at 4.71 CNY per share, which has been adjusted multiple times, with the latest price being 4.29 CNY per share [5][9][12] Group 3: Triggering Redemption Conditions - The redemption conditions were triggered as the company's stock price was above 130% of the current conversion price for at least 15 trading days within the specified period [10][12] - The board of directors approved the early redemption on October 30, 2025, authorizing management to handle all related matters [3][12] Group 4: Shareholding Dilution - The controlling shareholder, Guangdong Guangsheng Holding Group, experienced a passive dilution of its shareholding due to the conversion of bonds into shares, reducing its ownership from 32.92% to 31.68% [26][27] - The total number of shares increased from approximately 3.96 billion to 4.12 billion shares due to the conversion of 547,648,797 shares from the bonds [27]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - outlook is repeatedly but relatively stable, and aluminum ingots are steadily making up for lost ground. In the medium - to - short - term, supply disruptions continue to support the prices of base metals, but macro support has weakened, leading to base metals rising and then falling. With the copper - aluminum ratio remaining above 4, opportunities for aluminum ingots to make up for lost ground can be continuously focused on. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply - demand [2]. - For individual metals: - Copper: After the Fed's rate cut, copper prices are operating at a high level and are expected to be volatile and moderately strong [8][9]. - Alumina: The current fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating [9]. - Aluminum: The macro environment remains positive, and aluminum prices are rising with fluctuations [12][13]. - Aluminum alloy: Scrap aluminum remains in short supply, and the market is fluctuating and moderately strong [14][15]. - Zinc: The accumulation of social inventory has significantly slowed down, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly [17]. - Lead: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices are fluctuating [18]. - Nickel: LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and nickel prices are fluctuating [20][21]. - Stainless steel: Nickel - iron prices are falling, and the stainless - steel market is operating weakly [21][22]. - Tin: Raw material supply is tight, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Outlook Copper - **Viewpoint**: After the Fed's rate cut, copper prices are operating at a high level, with a medium - term outlook of being volatile and moderately strong [8]. - **Analysis**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points on October 29. In September, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 5.05 tons month - on - month, a 4.31% decline, and increased by 11.62% year - on - year. As of November 3, SMM's national mainstream copper inventory increased by 1.75 tons to 20.01 tons. On October 30, Sino - US leaders met and agreed to strengthen cooperation in various fields [8]. - **Logic**: The Fed's rate cut has been implemented, and Powell's remarks are slightly hawkish, leading to short - term adjustments in copper prices. On the supply - demand side, copper mine supply disruptions are increasing, and the cost and difficulty of scrap copper recycling have risen, causing a decline in electrolytic copper production. On the demand side, the peak demand season has arrived, but inventory reduction is not obvious, and high prices are suppressing demand [9]. Alumina - **Viewpoint**: The current fundamentals are still in surplus, and alumina prices are under pressure and fluctuating [9]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the comprehensive price of alumina in the north remained flat at 2840 yuan, and the national weighted index decreased by 8.8 yuan to 2862.4 yuan. Affected by environmental control, a large - scale alumina enterprise in Hebei plans to shut down 2 roasting furnaces for maintenance from 18:00 on November 3 and resume on November 8 [9][10]. - **Logic**: Recently, macro sentiment has amplified market fluctuations. On the fundamental side, high - cost production capacity has fluctuated, but supply contraction is not obvious, and the domestic market is still in a strong inventory - accumulation trend. However, as the valuation enters a low - level range, price fluctuations may increase [10][11]. Aluminum - **Viewpoint**: The macro environment remains positive, and aluminum prices are rising with fluctuations, with a medium - term outlook of the price center continuing to move up [12][13]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum was 21440 yuan/ton, an increase of 160 yuan/ton. The domestic mainstream consumption area's aluminum rod inventory remained unchanged at 13.80 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.1 tons to 62.7 tons. The Fed cut interest rates as expected and will stop reducing the balance sheet from December 1. Sino - US leaders reached a consensus on tariff suspension [12]. - **Logic**: The macro environment remains positive. On the supply side, domestic operating capacity and the start - up rate are at a high level, while overseas supply has continuous marginal disruptions. On the demand side, the traditional peak season has passed, terminal demand is stable, and social inventory reduction has slowed down. The copper - aluminum ratio is above 4, and the valuation of aluminum is relatively low [13]. Aluminum Alloy - **Viewpoint**: Scrap aluminum remains in short supply, and the market is fluctuating and moderately strong in the short - term, with a medium - term outlook of price fluctuations [14][15]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the price of Baotai ADC12 was 21000 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton. It is estimated that the retail market scale of narrow - sense passenger cars in October will reach about 2.2 million units, a 2% month - on - month decline [14][15]. - **Logic**: On the cost side, the shortage of scrap aluminum supply is difficult to change in the short - term. On the supply side, the weekly start - up rate has slightly increased, but some alloy plants face the risk of production reduction or suspension. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement, and automobile sales are resilient [15]. Zinc - **Viewpoint**: The accumulation of social inventory has significantly slowed down, and zinc prices have rebounded slightly, with a medium - to - long - term outlook of price decline [17]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the spot price of Shanghai 0 zinc was at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the main contract. As of November 3, the total inventory of SMM's seven - region zinc ingots was 16.17 tons, an increase of 0.02 tons from last Thursday. A new earthquake occurred at the Xantho Extended ore body of the Golden Grove mine in Western Australia, and the company withdrew its full - year zinc production guidance [17]. - **Logic**: The Sino - US economic and trade relationship shows a缓和 signal, and the 15th Five - Year Plan is becoming clearer. On the supply side, the short - term supply of zinc ore has become looser, and smelters' profitability is good, with high production enthusiasm. On the demand side, domestic consumption is entering the off - season, and demand expectations are average [17]. Lead - **Viewpoint**: Social inventory remains at a low level, and lead prices are fluctuating moderately strong [18]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, the price of scrap electric vehicle batteries was 10025 yuan/ton, and the original - recycled price difference was 75 yuan/ton. The average price of SMM 1 lead ingots was 17225 yuan, and the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 3.02 tons, an increase of 0.03 tons from last Thursday. In November, the maintenance and resumption of production of primary lead and recycled lead enterprises are concurrent, and lead ingot inventory may increase [18]. - **Logic**: On the spot side, the spot premium and the original - recycled price difference are stable. On the supply side, the price of scrap batteries is stable, and the production of recycled lead smelters is increasing, while the production of primary lead smelters is decreasing. On the demand side, although some lead - acid battery factories have temporarily reduced production, the overall start - up rate is high [18]. Nickel - **Viewpoint**: LME nickel inventory continues to increase, and nickel prices are fluctuating [20][21]. - **Analysis**: On November 2, LME nickel inventory was 252750 tons, an increase of 648 tons from the previous trading day. Asian Battery Metals Company is actively exploring its copper - nickel and copper - gold project portfolio in Mongolia. Rongbai Technology has achieved ten - ton - level shipments of high - nickel and ultra - high - nickel all - solid - state cathode materials [20]. - **Logic**: Market sentiment still dominates the market, and the industrial fundamentals are marginally weakening. The supply of nickel ore is relatively loose, and the production of intermediate products has recovered. The market is in a state of excess, and inventory is accumulating [21]. Stainless Steel - **Viewpoint**: Nickel - iron prices are falling, and the stainless - steel market is operating weakly, with an outlook of range - bound fluctuations [21][22]. - **Analysis**: The latest stainless - steel futures warehouse receipt inventory is 73482 tons, a decrease of 175 tons from the previous trading day. The average price of SMM's 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron decreased by 1.5 yuan/nickel point. In October, stainless - steel production continued to increase, and social inventory slightly increased [21][22]. - **Logic**: Nickel - iron and chromium prices are falling, and the cost support for steel prices is weakening. Although production has increased, downstream demand's acceptance of price increases is limited, and inventory may continue to accumulate during the off - season [22][23]. Tin - **Viewpoint**: Raw material supply is tight, and tin prices are fluctuating at a high level [23]. - **Analysis**: On November 3, LME tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 130 tons to 2830 tons, and Shanghai tin warehouse receipt inventory increased by 56 tons to 5730 tons. The average price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network's 1 tin ingot was 285400 yuan/ton, an increase of 1000 yuan/ton from the previous day [23]. - **Logic**: Supply constraints in the tin market still exist, and the bottom support for tin prices is strengthening. In Wa State, production may be delayed, and in Indonesia, the supply of refined tin is expected to be tight. However, the resumption of production by Yunxi has led to an increase in the start - up rate of refined tin, and inventory reduction has slowed down, limiting the upward space for tin prices [23]. 2. Market Monitoring - **Commodity Index**: On November 3, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities increased by 0.10% to 2250.33, the commodity 20 index increased by 0.02% to 2546.82, the industrial products index increased by 0.09% to 2237.50, and the PPI commodity index increased by 0.15% to 1352.44 [146]. - **Sector Index**: On November 3, 2025, the non - ferrous metals index increased by 0.50% to 2494.27, with a 0.57% increase in the past 5 days, a 3.38% increase in the past month, and an 8.06% increase since the beginning of the year [147].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall trend of the non - ferrous metals sector is still oscillating upwards, but the upward rhythm is affected by manufacturing data fluctuations and the uncertainty of interest - rate cut expectations [11]. - For copper, short - term factors such as China's manufacturing PMI decline are negative, but in the medium - to - long - term, the improvement of the US manufacturing PMI, the supply pressure on the raw material side, and the seasonal increase in domestic demand are expected to drive up the copper price [3][12]. - Zinc shows a fluctuating rebound, with the mine end being strong and the downstream acceptance slightly improving [4][12]. - The aluminum industry chain is generally in an oscillating state. Aluminum shows an oscillatingly strong trend, alumina oscillates and consolidates, and cast aluminum alloy is also oscillatingly strong [13]. - Tin is expected to be oscillatingly strong due to supply constraints and a slight improvement in demand [13][14]. - Lead is in an oscillating consolidation state, with supply gradually recovering and demand weakening [14]. - Nickel and stainless steel are in an oscillating state. Nickel has high inventory pressure, and stainless steel is in a weak supply - demand situation [8][14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operation Logic and Investment Suggestions - **Macro Logic**: The non - ferrous metals sector is still in an oscillating upward trend, but the upward rhythm is affected by manufacturing data and interest - rate cut uncertainties. After the October Fed decision, there are different views on interest - rate cuts among Fed officials. China's manufacturing PMI in October shows fluctuations [11]. - **Investment Suggestions for Each Metal** - **Copper**: Oscillating upward. Suggested to buy on dips, with a support range of 84000 - 85000 yuan/ton and a pressure range of 89000 - 90000 yuan/ton [12]. - **Zinc**: Fluctuating rebound. Suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 21800 - 22000 and a pressure range of 22800 - 23000 [4][12]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is bullish, alumina is short - term bearish and long - term bullish, and cast aluminum alloy is bullish. Different support and pressure ranges are provided for each [13]. - **Tin**: Oscillatingly strong. Suggested to take a bullish approach, with a support range of 260000 - 270000 and a pressure range of 290000 - 300000 [13]. - **Lead**: Oscillating consolidation. Suggested to use an option double - selling strategy, with a support range of 17300 - 17500 and a pressure range of 17800 - 18000 [14]. - **Nickel**: Range - bound. Suggested to be slightly bullish on dips, with a support range of 118000 - 120000 and a pressure range of 125000 - 128000 [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: Oscillating. Suggested to be bullish on dips, with a support range of 12500 - 12600 and a pressure range of 13000 - 13200 [14]. 3.2 Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals futures are presented, such as copper closing at 87300 with a 0.33% increase, and zinc closing at 22565 with a 0.94% increase [15]. 3.3 Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - A chart of the latest position analysis of the non - ferrous metals sector is provided, but no specific content is described [16]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and price changes of various non - ferrous metals are given, for example, the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price is 87080 yuan/ton with a - 0.68% change [19]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - Multiple charts related to the non - ferrous metals industry chain are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price trends of copper, zinc, aluminum, alumina, tin, lead, nickel, and stainless steel [20][23][25][32][40][45][51]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Multiple charts related to non - ferrous metals arbitrage are provided, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change and the LME zinc spot premium [55][57]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Multiple charts related to non - ferrous metals options are provided, including historical volatility, implied volatility, and trading volume and open - interest changes of copper, zinc, and aluminum options [71][73][75].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For copper, maintain a strategy of buying on dips considering the continuous tightness in the mining end and the growth of infrastructure and power demand in Southeast Asia and the Middle East. Pay attention to the support around $10,300 for LME copper [1]. - For aluminum, with good domestic apparent demand, high proportion of molten aluminum, de - stocking of aluminum ingots and various aluminum products, and supply disruptions overseas, hold long - term on dips due to the low inventory [1]. - For zinc, the domestic fundamentals are poor, but there may be a phased reduction in supply at the end of the year. In the short - term, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to reverse arbitrage opportunities between domestic and overseas markets, and positive arbitrage opportunities for the spread between December and February contracts [2]. - For nickel, the short - term fundamentals are weak, but there are continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mining end and the policy side has the motivation to support prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [3]. - For lead, it is expected that the domestic and overseas lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation next week, in the range of 17,200 - 17,500. It is recommended to wait and see the resumption of secondary lead production and the increase of warehouse receipts [6]. - For tin, in the short - term, follow the macro sentiment and wait and see. If there is a systematic macro risk, the tin price has a large downward space; in the long - term, hold on dips near the cost line [7]. - For industrial silicon, in the short - term, the supply and demand are in a balanced and slightly loose state, and the price is expected to oscillate. In the long - term, the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom of the cycle with the seasonal marginal cost as the anchor [8]. - For lithium carbonate, in the context of "anti - involution", the price elasticity is high after supply - side disturbances are realized, and there is strong downward support before that. If the energy storage demand remains high and the power demand is stable, the long - term pattern may change in the next 1 - 2 years [8]. - For stainless steel, the fundamentals are generally weak, and the Indonesian policy side has a certain motivation to support prices. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities [11]. Group 3: Summaries by Metals Copper - Market sentiment was dominated by tariff negotiation progress this week. After the China - US negotiation, the bullish news was digested, and the copper price tested the support of the 10 - day moving average. The downstream copper开工 rate decreased, but the inventory showed a slight de - stocking pattern [1]. - Some mines were reported to enter the market for hedging at the price of $11,000. There may be medium - sized deliveries of LME copper in the near future [1]. Aluminum - Domestic apparent demand was good, the proportion of molten aluminum was at a high level, and both aluminum ingots and various aluminum products were de - stocking. Overseas supply was affected by potential production stoppages [1]. - The improvement of China - US economic and trade relations and the Fed's decision to stop balance - sheet reduction led to a marginal improvement in demand [1]. Zinc - The zinc price oscillated upward this week. The treatment charges (TC) for domestic and imported zinc concentrates accelerated their decline. The domestic zinc concentrate supply will be tight from the fourth quarter to the first quarter of next year [2]. - The Huoshaoyun zinc ingot officially started production in November, with an expected monthly output of 8,000 - 10,000 tons. The total supply is expected to increase by about 8,000 tons month - on - month, but the market acceptance needs further observation [2]. - Domestic demand was seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe was average. Some overseas smelters faced production difficulties due to processing fees. The domestic social inventory oscillated, and the overseas LME inventory decreased [2]. Nickel - The supply of pure nickel remained at a high level, the demand was weak, and the premiums were stable recently. Both domestic and overseas inventories continued to accumulate [3]. - There were continuous disturbances at the Indonesian mining end, and the policy side had the motivation to support prices [3]. Lead - The lead price declined this week due to the production cut of downstream lead users. The supply of scrap lead was weak year - on - year, and the recovery of secondary lead production was slow [6]. - The demand for lead batteries decreased, and the finished - product inventory was high. The supply - demand mismatch was serious, and the spot premium in Hunan continued to rise [6]. - The refined - scrap lead price difference was - 75, and the five - region social inventory was at a historical low of 29,800 tons. The spot tightness was not significantly relieved [6]. Tin - The tin price oscillated this week. The processing fees at the mining end were at a low level, and the supply improved marginally after the maintenance of Yunnan Tin ended [6][7]. - There were differences in the output of the Wa State in Myanmar, and the Indonesian tin exports may recover to normal in 2026, but there were short - term production stoppages due to anti - smuggling efforts [7]. - The demand was mainly supported by rigidity at high prices, and the overseas LME inventory oscillated at a low level and recovered [7]. Industrial Silicon - The operation of leading enterprises in Xinjiang was stable, and the number of operating furnaces in Sichuan and Yunnan will decrease significantly in the dry season. The supply - demand of industrial silicon in Q4 is in a balanced and slightly loose state, with a monthly inventory accumulation of about 30,000 tons [8]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate price dropped rapidly on Friday due to the rumor of the resumption of production of Jiangxi mines. The overseas mines firmly supported the price, and the market supply of concentrated ore was tight [8]. - Lithium salt producers were reluctant to sell due to inventory reduction and high downstream开工 rates. The downstream was mainly in a wait - and - see attitude, and the trading volume above 80,000 yuan was small [8]. Stainless Steel - The steel mills' production plan in October increased slightly month - on - month. The demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the prices of nickel iron and chrome iron remained stable [11]. - The inventory was at a high level, and the warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The fundamentals were generally weak [11].

Core Viewpoint - The company has announced the early redemption of its convertible bonds, "中金转债," with specific terms and conditions outlined for investors [3][8][10]. Group 1: Redemption Details - The redemption price for "中金转债" is set at 100.70 CNY per bond, including accrued interest at a current annual rate of 2.00% [2][10][11]. - The redemption conditions are met as of October 30, 2025, and the bonds will be fully redeemed on November 26, 2025 [3][8][10]. - The last trading day for "中金转债" is November 21, 2025, after which the bonds will stop trading and converting [2][15][17]. Group 2: Issuance Overview - "中金转债" was issued on July 20, 2020, with a total of 38 million bonds at a face value of 100 CNY each, amounting to a total issuance of 3.8 billion CNY [4][5]. - The bonds have a maturity of six years and a tiered interest rate structure, starting from 0.20% in the first year to 2.00% in the sixth year [4][5]. Group 3: Conversion and Pricing Adjustments - The initial conversion price was set at 4.71 CNY per share, with adjustments made over time due to annual equity distributions, the latest being 4.29 CNY per share [5][6]. - The conditional redemption clause allows the company to redeem the bonds if the stock price exceeds 130% of the conversion price for a specified period [6][8]. Group 4: Redemption Process - The redemption process includes a series of announcements leading up to the redemption date, ensuring that all bondholders are informed [14][17]. - The funds from the redemption will be credited to the bondholders' accounts by December 3, 2025 [17].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Aluminum prices are expected to mainly show a high - level oscillating trend, with limited arbitrage opportunities. It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach for option contracts [5][35]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract AL2512 of Shanghai aluminum futures mainly showed a high - level oscillating trend, ranging from around 21,150 yuan/ton to a maximum of about 21,425 yuan/ton [9]. (2) Macroeconomic Aspect - In October, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing's prosperity level. The production index was 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, suggesting a slowdown in manufacturing production. The new orders index was 48.8%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, showing a decline in manufacturing market demand. The raw material inventory index was 47.3%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a continued reduction in the inventory of major manufacturing raw materials. The employment index was 48.3%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight decline in the employment prosperity of manufacturing enterprises [4][12][13]. (3) Supply - and - Demand Situation - As of September 2025, domestic bauxite imports were 15,880,586.84 tons, a decrease of 2,408,741.3 tons from the previous month. From a seasonal perspective, domestic bauxite imports remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. Domestic alumina production was 7.999 million tons, an increase of 74,300 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year increase of 8.7%. The domestic operating rate remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years. Monthly electrolytic aluminum production was 3.809 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons from the previous month, with a year - on - year growth of 1.8%. From a seasonal perspective, the current production remained at a relatively high level compared to the past five years [17]. (4) Inventory Situation - As of October 31, 2025, the electrolytic aluminum inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 113,574 tons, a decrease of 4,594 tons from the previous week. As of October 30, 2025, the LME aluminum inventory was 459,525 tons, a decrease of 3,225 tons from the previous trading day, and the proportion of cancelled warrants was 11.85%. As of October 30, 2025, the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 561,000 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons from the previous day [26].