Report Industry Investment Rating The provided reports do not mention industry investment ratings. Core Views Nickel - Yesterday, the Shanghai nickel futures market weakened, with the main contract breaking below the 120,000 support level. Macro - wise, the news was relatively calm, and the policy remained uncertain. The market expected the Fed to cut interest rates in the second half of the year. On the industrial side, spot prices fell, and trading was mediocre. In the medium - term, supply was expected to be loose, and the market was likely to fluctuate within the range of 118,000 - 126,000 [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel market showed narrow - range fluctuations. The market sentiment improved slightly, but high - price resources had weak trading. The supply was at a relatively high level, and the demand was slowly recovering. The market was expected to fluctuate weakly within the range of 12,400 - 13,000 [4]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures market declined significantly. The fundamentals were under pressure, and the market sentiment was weak. The supply was sufficient, and the demand was difficult to boost. The market was expected to run weakly within the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [5]. Tin - Tin was in a "strong reality, weak expectation" situation. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the demand was expected to be weak. After the sentiment stabilized, a short - selling strategy was recommended [6]. Aluminum Oxide - The supply of aluminum oxide was expected to increase, and the market was likely to turn relatively loose. The spot price was expected to fluctuate weakly, with the lower reference cash cost at 2,700 [7]. Aluminum - The low inventory and low warehouse receipts supported the short - term aluminum price, and it was difficult for the price to decline unilaterally. However, due to factors such as increased tariffs and weakening demand, the domestic aluminum price still faced pressure, with the lower support at 19,000 [7]. Zinc - The zinc market had a long - term supply - side easing cycle. The supply side was expected to be loose, and the demand side might weaken after the peak season. The price was expected to be in the range of 21,000 - 23,000 [9]. Copper - Copper was in a "strong reality + weak expectation" situation. The strong fundamentals restricted price drops, while the weak macro - expectations limited the upside. The price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 78,000 - 80,000 [12]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - **Nickel**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was at 121,900 yuan/ton, down 0.65%; 1 Jinchuan nickel was at 122,925 yuan/ton, down 0.75%. The LME 0 - 3 was at - 196 dollars/ton, down 0.97%. The futures import loss was - 2,759 yuan/ton, a reduction of 18.78% [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 12,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) was at 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The spot - futures price difference was 385 yuan/ton, up 4.05% [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 60,650 yuan/ton, up 0.25%; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate was at 59,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25% [5]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin was at 265,300 yuan/ton, down 0.19%; SMM 1 tin premium was at 1,100 yuan/ton, down 8.33% [6]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum was at 20,650 yuan/ton, up 1.23%; Yangtze River A00 aluminum was at 20,680 yuan/ton, up 1.27% [7]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot was at 22,310 yuan/ton, up 0.04%; SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) was at 22,330 yuan/ton, up 0.13% [9]. - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper was at 79,075 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper was at 79,010 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12]. Production Cost - **Nickel**: The cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel was 126,132 yuan/ton, down 0.49%; the cost of integrated high - grade nickel matte to produce electrolytic nickel was 133,478 yuan/ton, up 1.05% [1]. New Energy Material Prices - Battery - grade nickel sulfate was at 27,815 yuan/ton, unchanged; battery - grade lithium carbonate was at 60,200 yuan/ton, down 0.08%; cobalt sulfate (≥20.5%/domestic) was at 48,375 yuan/ton, down 0.57% [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - **Nickel**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 220 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; 2508 - 2509 was at - 120 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 40 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; 2508 - 2509 was at 20 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: 2507 - 2508 was at - 100 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2509 was at - 60 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan/ton [5]. - **Tin**: 2506 - 2507 was at 50 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 230 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton [6]. - **Aluminum**: 2506 - 2507 was at 130 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 5 yuan/ton, down 115 yuan/ton [7]. - **Zinc**: 2506 - 2507 was at 290 yuan/ton, unchanged; 2507 - 2508 was at 255 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [9]. - **Copper**: 2506 - 2507 was at 290 yuan/ton, up 210 yuan/ton; 2507 - 2508 was at 160 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [12]. Supply, Demand and Inventory - **Nickel**: China's refined nickel production was 35,350 tons, down 2.62%; refined nickel imports were 8,832 tons, up 8.18%. SHFE inventory was 27,075 tons, up 0.45%; social inventory was 41,553 tons, down 1.97%; LME inventory was 197,634 tons, up 0.06% [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 179.12 million tons, up 0.36%; stainless - steel imports were 14.21 million tons, up 10.26%; exports were 44.78 million tons, down 4.85%. 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) was 53.08 million tons, up 2.04% [4]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In May, lithium carbonate production was 72,080 tons, down 2.34%; demand was 93,938 tons, up 4.81%. In April, imports were 28,336 tons, up 56.33%; exports were 734 tons, up 233.72%. Total inventory in May was 97,637 tons, up 1.49% [5]. - **Tin**: In April, tin ore imports were 9,861 tons, up 18.48%; SMM refined tin production in May was 14,840 tons, down 2.37%. In April, refined tin imports were 1,128 tons, down 46.31%; exports were 1,637 tons, down 2.15%. SHEF inventory was 7,372 tons, down 9.07%; social inventory was 8,856 tons, down 2.38% [6]. - **Aluminum**: In May, aluminum oxide production was 727.21 million tons, up 2.66%; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.90 million tons, up 3.41%. China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 46.00 million tons, down 8.73%; LME inventory was 35.8 million tons, down 0.64% [7]. - **Zinc**: In May, refined zinc production was 54.94 million tons, down 1.08%; in April, imports were 2.82 million tons, up 2.40%; exports were 0.25 million tons, up 75.76%. China's zinc ingot seven - region social inventory was 7.71 million tons, down 2.77%; LME inventory was 13.3 million tons, down 1.47% [9]. - **Copper**: In May, electrolytic copper production was 113.83 million tons, up 1.12%; in April, imports were 25.00 million tons, down 19.06%. Domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory was 74.73 million tons, down 6.11%; electrolytic copper rod - making capacity utilization was 73.21%, down 1.66%. Domestic social inventory was 14.48 million tons, down 2.69%; bonded - area inventory was 5.97 million tons, up 2.93%; SHFE inventory was 10.74 million tons, up 1.52%; LME inventory was 11.69 million tons, down 2.18%; COMEX inventory was 19.21 million short tons, up 0.60% [12].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Copper is expected to remain high and fluctuate due to the support from fundamentals and inventory, with low global visible inventory and resilient consumption [1]. - Aluminum has a short - term decent fundamental situation, but attention should be paid to demand. The monthly positive spread can be held if the absolute price drops [1]. - Zinc maintains the idea of short - allocation, and the long - short spread between domestic and foreign markets and the monthly reverse spread can be held [4]. - For nickel, continue to focus on the opportunity of narrowing the nickel - stainless steel price ratio, with a generally average short - term real - world fundamental situation [8]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with a generally weak fundamental situation [12]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week, with supply expected to be flat and demand weak in June [16]. - For tin, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term and focus on short - selling opportunities in the medium term, with a co - existence of supply disturbances and consumption decline expectations [19]. - Industrial silicon may face large potential supply pressure in the future, and its price is expected to bottom - out based on the cash - flow cost of leading manufacturers in the long - term [21]. - Lithium carbonate is expected to decline after oscillation, with high supply elasticity in the future and weak short - term downstream demand [23]. Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai copper spot price changed by 5, the premium changed by - 113, and the LME inventory decreased by 2600 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Overseas, LME cash - 3m structure steepened due to concentrated cancellation of LME warrants in the eurozone. Domestically, the export window is close to opening, and inventories are gradually accumulating. The global visible inventory of copper is on a downward trend, and consumption remains resilient [1]. Aluminum - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai aluminum ingot price increased by 260, and the LME inventory decreased by 2000 [1]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has slightly increased, and demand is expected to seasonally weaken in June. There is still a supply - demand gap, and inventory reduction is gentle from June to July [1]. Zinc - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai zinc ingot price increased by 10, and the LME inventory decreased by 550 [1][3]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply has increased in June, demand elasticity is limited, domestic social inventory is slightly accumulating, and overseas LME inventory has a downward trend [4]. Nickel - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the Shanghai nickel spot price decreased by 850, and the LME inventory increased by 126 [8]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply of pure nickel remains high, demand is weak, overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory has slightly decreased [8]. Stainless Steel - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the price of 304 cold - rolled coil remained unchanged, and the price of scrap stainless steel decreased by 20 [12]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply increased seasonally in April and decreased passively in late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs, and inventory in Xijiao and Foshan has slightly increased [12]. Lead - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the LME inventory decreased by 4775 [15]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply side has issues such as weak scrap volume and tight raw materials. Demand side has high battery inventory and weak consumption. The price is expected to oscillate between 16400 - 16700 next week [16]. Tin - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the LME inventory remained unchanged [19]. - **Market Analysis**: Supply is affected by the non - resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State and the war on the Myanmar - Thailand border. Demand is limited, and short - term supply and demand are both weak [19]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the basis of 421 in Yunnan and Sichuan increased by 105, and the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [21]. - **Market Analysis**: The overall market start - up has slightly increased, short - term supply and demand have both decreased, and future supply may face large pressure [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Data**: From June 6th to 12th, the SMM electric carbon price increased by 150, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 454 [23]. - **Market Analysis**: The price is oscillating at a low level, downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to decline after oscillation [23].

Core Viewpoint - Yunnan Tin Company plans to increase capital in Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory to enhance research and development capabilities through a joint investment with its parent company and a subsidiary, totaling 120 million yuan from Yunnan Tin Company, 30 million yuan from Yunnan Tin Group, and 120 million yuan from Yunnan Tin New Materials Company, resulting in a new shareholding structure [1][6][8] Group 1: Related Transaction Overview - The capital increase involves Yunnan Tin Company investing 120 million yuan, while Yunnan Tin Group and Yunnan Tin New Materials will invest 30 million yuan and 120 million yuan respectively, leading to a new shareholding structure of 40% for Yunnan Tin Group, 30% for Yunnan Tin Company, and 30% for Yunnan Tin New Materials in Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory [1][6] - The transaction is classified as a related party transaction due to the ownership structure, with Yunnan Tin Group being the controlling shareholder of Yunnan Tin Company [2][3] - The board of directors approved the transaction unanimously, and it does not require shareholder meeting approval as per relevant regulations [2][3] Group 2: Financial and Operational Details - The registered capital of Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory will increase from 13 million yuan to 40 million yuan following the capital increase [6][8] - The valuation of Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory was assessed at 1,821.46 million yuan, reflecting a 359.66% increase in value, despite a negative net asset value of -701.48 million yuan [6][8] - The capital increase aims to strengthen the laboratory's role as a provincial-level high-energy technology innovation platform, focusing on the entire tin-indium industry chain [8][9] Group 3: Strategic Implications - The investment is expected to enhance the collaborative research and development efforts between Yunnan Tin Company and Yunnan Tin Indium Laboratory, thereby improving the company's technological innovation foundation and competitive advantage [8][9] - The laboratory aims to address key technological challenges in the tin-indium industry and promote the integration of innovation and industrial chains [8][9]

有色商品日报 有色商品日报（2025 年 6 月 12 日） 一、研究观点 | 品 种 | | 点评 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 隔夜 LME 铜下跌 0.8%至 9647 美元/吨；SHFE 0.77%至 78570 | | 铜主力下跌 | 元/吨；国内 | | | | 现货进口持续亏损。宏观方面，美国 5 月 CPI 同比上涨 | | 表现超预期降温，CPI | 2.4%， | | | | 略低于预期的 2.5%，但高于前值 2.3%；核心 CPI 2.8%，低于预期 数据显示，美国消费者尚未感受到关税政策带来的价格上涨压力，这也减轻了美联储 | | 同比持平于 | 2.9%。 | | | | 下半年降息的压力，数据公布后市场再度聚焦美联储政策的判断，CME 利率观察工 具显示，市场对月降息的可能性一度升至 60%附近。库存方面，LME 铜下降 950 | | | | 吨至 | | 铜 | 119450 吨；Comex 铜增加 1044 吨至 174259 铜仓单下降 373 吨至 33373 | | 吨；SHFE | | | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core View - The relaxation of mutual tariffs between China and the US has led to export expectations, and there are fluctuations in the production of multiple overseas steel mills. However, due to the traditional off - season of consumption, the destocking of domestic electrolytic copper is difficult, which may cause adjustments in the Shanghai copper price. It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to support and pressure levels [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On June 11, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 79,290, with a volume of 64,136 lots, an increase of 410 compared to the previous day; the open interest was 209,523 lots, an increase of 838; the inventory was 33,373 tons, a decrease of 373 tons; the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 79,310, an increase of 35 [2]. - **Shanghai Copper Basis and Spreads**: The Shanghai copper basis was 20, a decrease of 375; the spot premium or discount in different regions showed various changes; the spreads between different contract months also changed, such as the spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract decreased by 10 [2]. - **London Copper**: The closing price of the LME 3 - month copper futures (electronic trading) on June 11, 2025 was 9,647, a decrease of 78; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 0, a decrease of 119,450; the spreads between different contract periods also changed [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: The total inventory on June 11, 2025 was 4.8065 million tons, a decrease of 0.09 million tons compared to the previous day [2]. Industry Information - **Upstream**: In June 2025, the overall starting rate of Chinese anode copper enterprises is expected to increase by 1.57 percentage points to 54.56%. Some mines have production plans and issues, such as the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine may resume production in late June, and some mines need to be shut down for maintenance. The import volume of copper concentrates may increase, while the production and import volume of scrap copper may decrease [2][3]. - **Downstream**: The capacity utilization rate of some copper - related downstream industries may decline in June, such as copper rods, copper wires and cables, copper foil, etc., affected by factors such as the off - season of consumption and insufficient orders. However, the capacity utilization rate of copper foil may increase [3]. Trading Strategy - It is recommended that investors take profits on previous long positions and pay attention to the support level of 76,000 - 78,000 and the pressure level of 80,000 - 82,000 for Shanghai copper, the support level of 9,000 - 9,300 and the pressure level of 9,800 - 10,000 for London copper, and the support level of 4.5 - 4.5 and the pressure level of 5.0 - 5.5 for US copper [3].

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/12 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 2025/06/06 75 974 107404 32278 -1323.74 19.48 41.0 65.0 69.84 132400 77800 2025/06/09 70 944 107404 34242 -1215.58 217.42 43.0 66.0 95.78 122400 67800 2025/06/10 90 1043 107404 33746 -1195.14 161.13 43.0 66.0 84.10 120400 71725 2025/06/11 90 1103 107404 33373 -874.85 136.66 38.0 60.0 55.49 119450 70700 变化 0 60 ...

| 镇产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年6月12日 | | | | 林嘉施 | Z0020770 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日 涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | SMM 1#电解销 | 122700 | 122800 | -100 | -0.08% | 元/肥 | | 1#송川镇 | 123850 | 123900 | -50 | -0.04% | 元/吨 | | 1#金川镍升贴水 | 2450 | 2400 | 50 | 2.08% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇 | 121700 | 121600 | 100 | 0.08% | 元/吨 | | 1#进口镇升贴水 | 300 | 100 | 200 | - | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | -194 | -189 | -5 | 2.79% | 美元/吨 | | 期货进口盈亏 | -3397 | -3024 | -373 | 12.33% | 元/吨 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are likely to maintain high - level oscillations due to factors such as the uncertain outcome of Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, weak domestic economic data, the transition from peak season to off - season, and low inventory [1]. - Aluminum prices are affected by the Sino - US talks and the approaching off - season. It is recommended to closely monitor the results of the Sino - US talks [2]. - Nickel is expected to experience weak oscillations in the medium - to - long term due to cost support and supply surplus [3][5]. - Tin prices are expected to oscillate, and it is advisable to conduct range trading, while paying attention to supply resumption and downstream demand [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Basic Metals Copper - As of June 11, the Shanghai copper main 07 contract rose 0.2% to 79,290 yuan/ton. The Sino - US economic and trade negotiation has not made a breakthrough, but the US side is optimistic. The market expects the US to impose tariffs on copper, which has led to a halving of LME copper inventory in the past three months. The domestic spot market has low downstream consumption, low social inventory, and a narrowing BACK spread. The negative low level of copper ore smelting TC exerts continuous pressure on the supply outlook [1]. Aluminum - As of June 11, the Shanghai aluminum main 07 contract rose 1.25% to 20,250 yuan/ton. Mining disruptions in Guinea will impact the import volume of bauxite in July. The operating capacity of alumina has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remains stable. The downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has declined, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has decreased. The 232 steel and aluminum tariffs in the US have increased, and the impact of the off - season is gradually emerging [2]. Nickel - As of June 11, the Shanghai nickel main 07 contract rose 0.11% to 121,790 yuan/ton. The US PMI is expanding, and the euro - zone PMI is contracting. Domestically, the LPR has been lowered. The nickel ore market in Indonesia is tight, and the downstream nickel - iron is in a loss state. The refined nickel has a surplus, and the LME inventory has increased. The demand for stainless steel is average, and the price of nickel sulfate is pushed up by cost but has limited demand [3][5]. Tin - As of June 11, the Shanghai tin main 07 contract rose 0.69% to 265,530 yuan/ton. In May, domestic refined tin production decreased, and in April, tin concentrate imports increased. The supply of tin ore is gradually improving, and the inventory has decreased. The semiconductor industry is expected to recover, but the US tariff policy may suppress downstream demand [6]. Spot Transaction Summary Copper - Domestic spot copper prices rose slightly. Sellers were reluctant to cut prices, and buyers were waiting and watching, resulting in a stalemate in the market [7]. Aluminum - Spot aluminum market transactions improved. Sellers were reluctant to sell due to low inventory, and buyers were less willing to chase up prices. Long - term orders supported trading activity, and the market showed a situation of more buying than selling in the afternoon [8]. Alumina - Spot market transactions were light. Sellers maintained a price - holding strategy, while buyers were waiting and watching, resulting in poor transactions [9]. Zinc - Spot zinc market prices fell. Sellers were forced to cut prices, and buyers only made purchases to meet rigid demand, with low overall purchasing willingness [10]. Lead - Spot lead market prices rose slightly. Traders' discount quotes narrowed, and they were waiting for price corrections to replenish inventory. Recycled lead enterprises were more willing to sell, and transactions were concentrated on low - priced goods [11][12]. Nickel - Spot nickel market prices fell. Market transactions were cautious, and trading was light [13]. Tin - Spot tin market prices rose. Market transactions were cautious, and trading was light [14]. Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Report - SHFE copper futures warehouse receipts decreased by 373 tons to 33,373 tons; LME copper inventory decreased by 950 tons to 119,450 tons. SHFE aluminum futures warehouse receipts decreased by 75 tons to 47,468 tons; LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,300 tons to 357,600 tons. SHFE zinc futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3,075 tons; LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,975 tons to 132,575 tons. SHFE lead futures warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons to 42,597 tons; LME lead inventory decreased by 4,500 tons to 273,525 tons. SHFE nickel futures warehouse receipts increased by 72 tons to 21,113 tons; LME nickel inventory decreased by 618 tons to 197,508 tons. SHFE tin futures warehouse receipts decreased by 56 tons to 6,810 tons; LME tin inventory decreased by 50 tons to 2,365 tons [15].

王文虎(F03087656,Z0019472),联系电话:010-82293558 投资策略 上里女只用 t ）宏观：特朗普政府不确定的关税政策引发消费试通胀反弹担忧， 强 加美 匿月捐推荐印就业人数为13. 9万高于预期担保于前值，平均时 薪年率为3. %高于预期和南值，使美联储降息 预期时点推迟至9/12月。 (2) 上游：紫金矿业旗下卡莫阿-卡库拉钢矿西侧正在排水且或于6月下旬复产但东侧排水或持续至9月（25年计划矿产吊52-58万吨），加拿大Teck Resources矿业6月2日宣布旗下智利 | | | --- | | Carnen de Ardaco11οπή 広島ε彦(出现机械)[韓國uebrada Blanca花马格岛机发生无关的阿时刻障而均需停产缩修如个月，印尼自由接麦克集三公司（Freeoort: Mdlkan) 3月 | | ? 已被准许�个身的出口27万吨相精『但将被征收更富出口税，钢陵有由旗下位于厄瓜多尔拉米拉多钢矿二期6万吨产能或于26年下半年投产，巨龙钢矿新增二期20万吨/日扩建工程 | | 或于25年底投产，ACC: Metal s旗下Gediktrepe多金属矿山的流化钢矿扩 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Copper is expected to continue its volatile pattern for some time, with the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton being closely watched. Favorable factors for bulls include a weak US dollar, inventory reduction, low inventory levels, tight domestic spot supply, and uncertainty over potential tariff hikes in the US 232 investigation. Key bearish factors are the US government's inconsistent tariff stance and the resulting uncertainty in the global economic outlook [1]. - Aluminum is undergoing a weak adjustment. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, leading to increased pressure on spot inventory. The reduction in bauxite price support has caused alumina prices to adjust based on cost. Aluminum ingot inventory is decreasing, but the speed of turnover and inventory reduction has slowed down. The price of aluminum alloy may fluctuate around the Baotai price in the short - term [1][2]. - Nickel is expected to remain range - bound. Although the cost of raw materials is firm and the fundamentals of primary nickel are improving, upward movement is restricted by weak downstream demand. Attention should be paid to the premium of nickel ore and the inventory of primary nickel [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight, LME copper fell 0.45% to $9,725/ton, and SHFE copper主力 dropped 0.13% to 79,030 yuan/ton. Domestic spot imports are in a continuous loss. In May, US consumers' inflation expectations declined for the first time since 2024, and consumer confidence improved. China's May CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and PPI's year - on - year decline widened to 3.3%. China's exports in May increased by 4.8% year - on - year in US dollars, while imports decreased by 3.4%. LME copper inventory decreased to 120,400 tons, Comex copper inventory increased to 173,215 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased to 33,746 tons, and BC copper warehouse receipts increased to 804 tons. With the arrival of the off - season, terminal demand orders are gradually slowing down [1]. Aluminum - On the first trading day, aluminum alloy showed a pattern of rising and then falling. The main contract AD2511 closed at 19,190 yuan/ton, up 4.49%. Alumina showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AO2509 closing at 2,888 yuan/ton, down 0.24%. Shanghai aluminum also showed a weak and volatile trend, with the overnight AL2507 closing at 20,050 yuan/ton, up 0.25%. The SMM alumina price dropped to 3,262 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot premium was 70 yuan/ton. Alumina enterprises are resuming production, and inventory pressure is increasing. The reduction in bauxite price support has led to an adjustment in alumina prices based on cost. The proportion of molten aluminum has increased, and the arrival of aluminum ingots has decreased, but the speed of inventory reduction has slowed down [1][2]. Nickel - Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.23% to $15,330/ton, and Shanghai nickel fell 0.25% to 121,360 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased to 198,126 tons, and domestic SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased to 21,041 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the import nickel premium was 100 yuan/ton. Nickel ore prices are firm, and domestic nickel - iron transaction prices show a slight rebound. In the stainless - steel sector, raw material prices are stable, and inventory has increased on a weekly basis. Production cuts in China and Indonesia in June will gradually ease the overall oversupply situation, but in the medium - term, it will still be constrained by weak terminal demand. In the new energy sector, prices are stable, and there is little new demand in June. In June, the supply of primary nickel continued to decline month - on - month, and domestic weekly inventory decreased [2]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring Copper - Market prices: The price of flat - copper increased by 400 yuan/ton, the price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong rose by 300 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap price difference in Guangdong increased by 119 yuan/ton. The prices of downstream products such as oxygen - free copper rods and low - oxygen copper rods also increased. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 2,000 tons, Comex copper inventory increased by 1,672 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 496 tons, and the total social inventory (including bonded areas) remained unchanged [4]. Lead - Market prices: The average price of 1 lead increased by 110 yuan/ton, and the prices of recycled lead products also rose. The price of lead concentrate at the factory increased by 100 yuan/ton in some areas. - Inventory: LME lead inventory decreased by 1,950 tons, and SHFE lead warehouse receipts increased by 399 tons [4]. Aluminum - Market prices: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices decreased, and the price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi widened. The price of some aluminum alloy products decreased, and the processing fee of some downstream aluminum products increased. - Inventory: LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,100 tons, SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 175 tons, and the total social inventory of electrolytic aluminum remained unchanged, while the social inventory of alumina increased by 4.1 tons [5]. Nickel - Market prices: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,100 yuan/ton, and the prices of some stainless - steel products also declined. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of new - energy nickel products decreased. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory decreased by 966 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 151 tons, and the total social inventory of nickel decreased by 2,178 tons [5]. Zinc - Market prices: The main settlement price of zinc decreased by 1.2%, and the prices of spot zinc and zinc alloy products dropped. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons, SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.28 million tons [6]. Tin - Market prices: The main settlement price of tin increased by 0.3%, and the spot price and the price of tin concentrate rose. The LME 0 - 3 premium decreased. - Inventory: LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 735 tons [6]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to spot premiums, SHFE near - far month spreads, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profits of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2025. These charts visually display the historical trends of relevant data [7][8][13][20][26][32][39]. 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher in precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has over a decade of experience in commodity research, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. His team has won multiple industry awards [46]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide, Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focusing on aluminum and silicon research. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick, UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with a focus on lithium and nickel research [47].