Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report emphasizes the sustained upward trend in gold prices driven by ongoing U.S. fiscal pressures and geopolitical issues, while silver is expected to enter a phase of catch-up growth [1][2] - The report predicts that the precious metals market will continue to benefit from a weakening U.S. dollar credit system, with gold's price center expected to rise due to multiple converging factors [2][3] - Silver's supply-demand dynamics are projected to maintain a deficit throughout the year, creating a favorable environment for price increases, especially as the gold-silver ratio is expected to converge downward during the easing cycle [1][2] Group 2 - The industrial metals sector is anticipated to experience price increases due to a combination of limited supply and low inventory levels, particularly for copper and aluminum, which are expected to see demand elasticity release [2][3] - The report highlights that the global economy is likely to remain in a loose monetary environment, which will support industrial metal prices and enhance demand driven by domestic policy [2][3] - The energy metals sector is currently in a clearing phase, with demand from sectors like electric vehicles and photovoltaics expected to remain resilient, although the overall supply-demand balance is still skewed towards excess [3] Group 3 - Investment recommendations suggest focusing on companies with significant cost advantages and expected volume growth in the coming years, including Zijin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Luoyang Molybdenum, Tianshan Aluminum, Yun Aluminum, Huayou Cobalt, and Zhongjin Resources [4]

证券研究报 告 【策略专题】 分红能力盘点：周期&公用篇 ——自由现金流资产系列 12 工业金属：25Q1 现金流比例 33%，具备较大股东回报提升空间 石化：25Q1 现金流比例 26%，盈利周期熨平、现金流稳定 港口： 25Q1 现金流比例 33%，市场或已充分认知其稳定现金创造能力 2）行业逻辑演变带来现金流改善：航运受益于近年来地缘事件频繁、运价 大波动的时代背景，农业则正发生开支周期转向平稳阶段的积极变化： 航运：25Q1 现金流比例 41%，地缘事件频繁、运价大波动时代 农业：25Q1 现金流比例 34%，开支周期进入平稳阶段 3）景气周期承压：虽然资本开支力度下降，但 EPS 压力较大，包括煤炭、 钢铁、建材、航空机场、地产： 煤炭：25Q1 现金流比例 25%，煤价下跌与开支高位持续矛盾 钢铁：25Q1 现金流比例 42%，去库影响显著 建材：25Q1 现金流比例 28%，股东回报提升空间有限 航空机场：25Q1 现金流比例 64%，盈利规模与疫情前接近 地产：25Q1 现金流阶段性修复，去库补充现金流 4）仍处高资本开支阶段：资本开支力度均在 2 以上，行业逻辑仍以扩张为 主，包括贵金属、能 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the energy metals sector, specifically lithium, cobalt, and nickel, highlighting the current market dynamics and future projections for these metals [1][2][3]. Key Insights and Arguments Lithium Market - Current lithium industry profitability is low, with less than 30% of production capacity profitable, and most capacities are operating at a loss [2][3]. - The price of lithium carbonate has reached around 60,000 CNY/ton, nearing the industry’s 90th percentile cash cost line, indicating strong cost support [2][11]. - A significant supply adjustment is expected, with forecasts for global lithium supply in 2025 and 2026 being revised down by approximately 200,000 tons each year due to operational pressures in Australia and Africa [3][10]. - The anticipated supply surplus for 2025 is about 120,000 tons, but a reversal in supply dynamics is expected by 2027 [10]. Cobalt Market - The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has extended its cobalt export ban, leading to a domestic shortage of cobalt raw materials, which is expected to drive prices significantly higher [2][13]. - The DRC accounts for approximately 75% of global cobalt production, and its firm pricing stance may lead to a substantial increase in cobalt prices in the long term [2][14][21]. - The cobalt market is projected to shift from a surplus of 60,000 tons to a shortage of about 40,000 tons if the DRC maintains its export ban [21][36]. Nickel Market - Nickel prices are currently supported around 15,000 USD/ton due to strong cost support, despite weak demand from stainless steel and battery sectors [22][23]. - The Indonesian nickel market remains tight, with significant regulatory impacts on supply and pricing [24][25]. - Future nickel production is expected to grow by about 10% in 2025, but the market faces substantial supply pressures [25][27]. Additional Important Insights - South American lithium projects are facing underestimated cost structures, which may hinder future supply growth [4][5]. - Australian lithium mines are under significant operational pressure, with potential for further production halts if prices remain low [6][12]. - The domestic mica mining sector in China is experiencing severe cost pressures, leading to potential market exits for high-cost producers [9]. - The overall cash cost for lithium production in 2025 is projected to be around 60,000 CNY/ton, indicating substantial financial strain across the industry [11]. Investment Considerations - Investment strategies in the lithium sector should focus on companies with strong cost advantages and diversified business models to withstand short-term market pressures [29]. - Companies like Zande Mining and Zhongkuang Resources are highlighted for their growth potential in lithium and copper, with significant profit contributions expected from their operations [30][31]. Conclusion - The energy metals sector is currently navigating through a challenging landscape characterized by cost pressures, regulatory impacts, and shifting supply-demand dynamics. The outlook for cobalt appears particularly strong, while lithium and nickel markets are expected to undergo significant adjustments in the coming years [35][36].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [7] Core Viewpoints - The report highlights that the recent rise in gold prices is supported by increased risk aversion due to global geopolitical conflicts and inflation data from the US. Additionally, the temporary ban on cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo has tightened supply, making precious metals and rare earths key investment opportunities [5][4]. Summary by Sections Market Review (2025.6.09-2025.6.20) - The Shenwan Nonferrous Metals Index increased by 0.08%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index and ranking 5th among 31 Shenwan primary industries. Energy metals (1.54%) and metal new materials (0.90%) saw the highest gains, while precious metals and small metals changed by 0.54% and -2.00%, respectively [2][14]. Precious Metals - As of June 20, COMEX gold closed at $3,384.40 per ounce, up 1.60% over the past two weeks and 26.70% year-to-date. COMEX silver closed at $35.95 per ounce, down 0.50% over the same period but up 19.89% year-to-date. The report suggests that geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties will continue to support gold prices, while silver may have further upside potential due to its undervaluation [3][22][25]. Industrial Metals - LME copper settled at $9,945 per ton, up 1.53% over the past two weeks and 14.50% year-to-date. LME aluminum closed at $2,529 per ton, up 4.01% over the same period but down 0.28% year-to-date. The report indicates that copper's supply-demand dynamics remain supportive, while aluminum faces challenges from seasonal demand fluctuations [29][32]. Small Metals - As of June 20, black tungsten concentrate (≥65%) was priced at 172,000 CNY per ton, down 0.58% over the past two weeks but up 20.28% year-to-date. LME tin closed at $32,690 per ton, up 1.35% over the same period and 15.82% year-to-date. The report notes that the antimony market is experiencing weak demand, while tungsten prices may trend higher due to stable consumption [35][36]. Rare Earths - The rare earth price index was reported at 182.17, down 0.70% over the past two weeks but up 11.23% year-to-date. The report highlights a mixed performance in rare earth prices, with light rare earths showing slight declines while others remain stable due to steady demand from traditional sectors [46][47]. Energy Metals - As of June 20, the average price of electrolytic cobalt was 234,500 CNY per ton, down 0.02% over the past two weeks but up 36.73% year-to-date. The report emphasizes the impact of the extended cobalt export ban from the Democratic Republic of Congo on supply dynamics [53][56].

A股收评：三大股指午后走强集体收涨 两市超4200只个股收红 金十数据6月23日讯，A股三大股指早盘低开高走，午后强势冲高，沪指一度涨近0.8%，截至收盘，沪 指涨0.65%，深证成指涨0.43%，创业板指涨0.39%；沪深两市全天成交额超1.1万亿，沪深两市超4200只 个股飘红。盘面上，大市多数板块飘红，能源金属板块全天强势，跨境支付板块午后拉升冲高，四方精 创20CM涨停，月内累涨超90%。航运、军工板块表现亮眼。白酒板块延续低迷态势全天水下震荡，迎 驾贡酒、山西汾酒等跌幅居前。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights that geopolitical uncertainties are driving an increase in risk aversion, which supports the rise in precious metal prices, particularly gold and silver [1] - The gold stock ETF (517400) has risen over 1.1%, reflecting the strengthening of precious metals due to heightened risk aversion [1] - The SSH Gold Stock Index (931238), tracked by the gold stock ETF, includes companies involved in gold mining, smelting, and sales, providing a representative performance of the gold industry chain [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate has led to continued fluctuations in industrial metal prices, with strong long-term support for copper prices [1] - In the energy metals sector, cobalt prices are expected to continue rising, while strategic metals like neodymium oxide have seen a price recovery from a low point [1] - The black tungsten concentrate price has reached a historical high, indicating a potential revaluation opportunity for strategic minor metals like antimony and tungsten amid supply chain autonomy trends [1]

A股能源金属板块走高，腾远钴业涨超10%，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业、永杉锂业、融捷股份、盛新锂能等 跟涨。消息面上，刚果金政府宣布延长3个月钴的临时禁令，全球钴供应量或将大幅下降。 ...

Group 1: Key Insights from Social Services Sector - The offline sector is expected to enter a new development cycle after adjustments, while online platforms continue to face competition [4] - Consumer willingness is gradually recovering, and industry penetration rates are on the rise [4] - Structural opportunities exist between offline and online sectors, with a gradual easing of competition in the e-commerce landscape [4] Group 2: Key Insights from Fixed Income Market - Investors are advised to focus on long-term and ultra-long-term non-active bonds, as well as 20-year local government bonds for yield spread opportunities [5] - The market sentiment has shifted towards bullishness on long-term bonds, with expectations of accelerated market activity if key benchmarks drop [5] - The bond market is experiencing a "running ahead" trend, indicating a proactive investment approach [5] Group 3: Key Insights from A-Share Strategy - The market is expected to continue in a volatile pattern, with the current weight index in a "bullish divergence" state [6][7] - The strategy emphasizes maintaining a portfolio structure centered around large financial institutions, particularly banks, as a stabilizing force [6][7] - The geopolitical situation and new consumer trends are influencing market adjustments [6][7] Group 4: Key Insights from Energy Metals Sector - The lithium industry is showing signs of bottoming out, with companies' price-to-book ratios reaching low levels [8] - Supply-demand balance in the lithium sector is expected to improve significantly by 2026, making it a favorable time to invest in companies with low costs and high growth potential [8] - The cobalt sector presents investment opportunities driven by policy catalysts, with specific companies recommended for attention [8] Group 5: Key Insights from Aviation and Airport Sector - The aviation supply-demand relationship is on the verge of reversal, with expectations for a strong summer travel season [9][10] - Despite short-term pressures from rising oil prices, the long-term outlook for the aviation industry remains positive, with demand expected to grow steadily [9][10] - The industry is projected to experience a significant improvement in supply-demand dynamics by 2025, leading to enhanced profitability [9][10] Group 6: Key Insights from Taotao Automotive - Taotao Automotive has entered a strategic partnership with K-Scale, focusing on humanoid robotics [11] - The collaboration aims to leverage K-Scale's AI capabilities and Taotao's local manufacturing strengths in North America [11] - Potential investment opportunities arise from exceeding order expectations and optimizing competitive dynamics in the robotics sector [11]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a downward trend with major indices declining, including the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.86%, Shenzhen Component Index down 1.01%, and ChiNext Index down 1.1% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 805.8 billion, an increase of 43.2 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - Over 4600 stocks in the market showed negative performance [1] - The energy metals sector opened high but fell back, while media and gaming stocks also saw a retreat after initial gains [1] - The controllable nuclear fusion sector led the decline, with companies like Hezhong Intelligent hitting the daily limit down, and others like Haheng Huaton, Guoguang Electric, and China Nuclear Technology experiencing significant losses [1] - The multi-financial sector also faced declines, with Ruida Futures down over 7% and Hongye Futures and New Power Financial following suit [1] Notable Stocks - Oil and gas stocks saw a rebound, with Huai Oil shares hitting the daily limit up and Zhongman Petroleum rising over 9% [1] - The solid-state battery sector was the top performer, with companies like Nord Shares, Xiangtan Electric, and Fengyuan Shares all hitting the daily limit up [1]

A股能源金属板块再度拉升，盛新锂能涨停，远航精密、永杉锂业、赣锋锂业、融捷股份、腾远钴业等 纷纷走高。 ...