Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss various aspects of the chemical and commodity markets, particularly focusing on the performance of specific products like rubber, palm oil, and methanol, as well as the impact of trade relations and market dynamics on these industries. Key Points and Arguments U.S. Business Profitability - U.S. business profitability stands at 4.38%, but there was a significant decline of 203.24% compared to the previous week, indicating a slight decrease in overall profitability [1] Rubber Market - The rubber market is experiencing strong quality support due to cost factors, suggesting a positive outlook for rubber prices [2] Production and Operating Rates - The operating rate for three enterprises as of May 8 was 44.75%, down 9.59% from the previous week and 4.44% year-on-year. The overall operating rate was 57.98%, reflecting a decline of 11.14% week-on-week and 18.11% year-on-year, primarily influenced by the holiday period [3] Financial Institutions and Market Tools - Starting May 15, financial institutions will increase their reserve requirements by 6%. There is potential for expanding or innovating new financial tools, indicating a proactive approach to market conditions [4] Supply Chain and Inventory - The supply chain is under pressure due to maintenance and repairs in various facilities, leading to a decrease in inventory levels. Last week, the matched sales volume was 4.832 million tons, down 14.5 million tons [5] Demand Dynamics - Demand remains weak overall, but there are signs of recovery in certain sectors, particularly in the Middle East, where operations are resuming post-holiday [6] Pricing and Market Sentiment - The pricing for certain chemicals, such as PS in California, has shown signs of recovery, with price differentials narrowing. The ongoing U.S.-China trade negotiations are expected to have a positive impact on demand [7] Methanol Market - The methanol market is currently experiencing a weak trend, with coastal prices outperforming inland prices. The average price in Inner Mongolia is around 2100, down 3.4% from the previous period [12] Inventory Levels - Methanol inventory levels are stable, with a slight decrease noted. Coastal regions are facing tight supply, contributing to stronger pricing in those areas [13][14] Seasonal Trends - The market is entering a seasonal downturn, particularly for downstream products, with overall demand remaining moderate. The coal market is also under pressure, with prices declining in regions like Inner Mongolia [15] Future Outlook - There is a potential for a shift in the methanol market due to upcoming import shipments, which could lead to changes in pricing dynamics in the medium to long term [16] Additional Important Content - The records highlight the importance of monitoring inventory levels and production rates as indicators of market health. The interplay between supply chain disruptions and demand recovery is crucial for forecasting future trends in the chemical and commodity markets.

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The crude oil market is affected by factors such as the weakening of the near - month spread, stubborn CPI in the US, and potential sanctions on Russia, with short - term volatility and a mid - term bearish outlook [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a neutral - to - high valuation, with short - term supply - demand weakness and expected high - level fluctuations in unilateral prices and a strengthening trend in crack spreads [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market has sufficient supply and weak demand, and the price is expected to run weakly [5][8]. - The natural gas market in the US is expected to see higher prices due to strong demand and increased LNG exports, while the European market is expected to be volatile due to stable supply and weak demand [8][9]. - The fuel oil market has different situations for high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [10][12]. - The PX, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, PR, and other polyester - related markets are expected to fluctuate and be sorted out, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [13][15][16]. - The styrene market is expected to show an oscillating trend due to factors such as supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [23][25]. - The PVC market has a weak supply - demand situation, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term, while the caustic soda market has a reduced upward drive, and short - term long positions are recommended to take profits on rallies [26][28]. - The PP and PE markets have a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, with a bearish view on prices in the medium and short term [29][31]. - The soda ash market is expected to show a relatively strong performance in price, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [32][35]. - The glass market is affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, and attention should be paid to possible logical conversions [35][37]. - The methanol market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading and selling call options [37][40]. - The urea market is expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation due to factors such as supply, demand, and export policies [40][42]. - The log market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the 9 - 11 reverse spread [43][46]. - The corrugated paper market is in a weak pattern, with a wait - and - see attitude for trading [46]. - The double - offset paper market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, with paper mills having a strong willingness to support prices [48][50]. - The pulp market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point on Tuesday [51][53]. - The butadiene rubber market has a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high point last Thursday [54][56]. - The natural rubber and 20 - number rubber markets have a wait - and - see attitude for trading, and attention should be paid to the pressure at the high points, and the RU2509 - NR2509 spread can be considered for intervention [57][59]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2508 contract settled at $66.52, down $0.46/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.69%; Brent2509 contract settled at $68.71, down $0.50/barrel, a month - on - month decrease of - 0.72%. SC main contract 2509 fell 2.6 to 509.3 yuan/barrel, and at night it fell 3.7 to 505.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent main - to - next - month spread was $0.94/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: US June CPI rebounded to 2.7% year - on - year, core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year. There are potential sanctions on Russia, and the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 19.1 million barrels in the week ending July 11, 2025 [1][2]. - **Logical Analysis**: The near - month spread of crude oil weakened, the short - term supply - demand contradiction was slightly weakened. The US CPI in June was still stubborn, the expectation of interest rate cuts was weakened, and the uncertainty of the macro - economic outlook increased. Potential sanctions on Russia may increase market disturbances [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term volatility is weak, and pay attention to the support around $68.2 for Brent. Gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stable, and options are on hold [2][3]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2509 closed at 3612 points at night (- 0.14%), BU2512 closed at 3433 points at night (- 0.17%). The spot price in Shandong on July 15 was 3550 - 4070 yuan/ton, and in the East China region it was 3670 - 3800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions were stable, with some price adjustments due to factors such as supply and demand and weather [3][4]. - **Logical Analysis**: Oil prices fell from a high level, the asphalt crack spread increased passively, the industrial chain profit was repaired, and the valuation was neutral - to - high. The supply and demand were weak in the short term, and both were expected to increase before the peak season at the end of the third quarter [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level fluctuations, the asphalt - crude oil spread is strong, and options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2508 closed at 4106 at night (- 1.3%), PG2509 closed at 4016 at night (- 1.06%). The spot prices in different regions varied [5]. - **Related News**: The market trends in different regions were different, with fluctuations and adjustments [5][6]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply decreased last week, the international ship arrivals increased, the demand in the combustion and chemical fields was weak, and the inventories at ports and factories increased [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to run weakly [8]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: TTF closed at 34.445 (- 2.85%), HH closed at 3.521 (+ 1.64%), JKM closed at 12.3 (- 2.88%) [8]. - **Logical Analysis**: In the US, the natural gas inventory increased last week, the production increased, the demand was strong, and the LNG export volume increased, so the price was expected to rise. In Europe, the supply was stable, the demand was weak, and the price fell [8][9]. - **Trading Strategy**: For HH, buy on dips; for TTF, it is expected to oscillate [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU09 contract closed at 22873 at night (+ 0.21%), LU09 closed at 3642 at night (- 0.14%). The Singapore paper - cargo market had different month - spreads [10]. - **Related News**: Malaysia will implement regulations on illegal ship - to - ship crude oil transfers, and the sales volume of marine fuel oil in Singapore in the first half of 2025 decreased slightly [11]. - **Logical Analysis**: The high arrival of domestic high - sulfur spot hit the domestic high - sulfur price. The high - sulfur feed demand was expected to increase, and the low - sulfur supply increased with no specific demand driver [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for unilateral trading, and pay attention to the digestion rhythm of near - term high - sulfur spot for arbitrage [13]. PX - **Market Review**: The PX2509 main contract closed at 6688 (- 90/- 1.33%) yesterday and 6712 (+ 24/+ 0.36%) at night. The spot price of PX decreased [13]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [14]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PX was still tight, the downstream demand was lack of support in the off - season, and it was expected to oscillate following the cost side [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [14]. PTA - **Market Review**: The TA509 main contract closed at 4696 (- 44/- 0.93%) yesterday and 4702 (+ 6/+ 0.13%) at night. The spot basis was stable [15]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [15]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of PTA was expected to increase, the downstream demand was weak, and the processing fee was compressed [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: The EG2509 futures main contract closed at 4322 (- 35/- 0.80%) yesterday and 4301 (- 21/- 0.49%) at night. The spot basis was stable [16]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [17]. - **Logical Analysis**: The supply of ethylene glycol was expected to increase, and there was an expectation of inventory accumulation in August - September, which would put pressure on the price [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [18]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: The PF2508 main contract closed at 6368 (- 68/- 1.06%) during the day and 6358 (- 10/- 0.16%) at night. The spot price in different regions was stable [18]. - **Related News**: The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak [18]. - **Logical Analysis**: The short - fiber price followed the decline of polyester raw materials, the processing difference continued to expand, and the production and sales were average [18][19]. - **Trading Strategy**: No specific strategy provided, wait and see attitude implied [19]. PR (Bottle Chips) - **Market Review**: The PR2509 main contract closed at 5870 (- 50/- 0.84%) yesterday and 5874 (+ 4/+ 0.07%) at night. The spot market trading atmosphere was average [19]. - **Related News**: The export quotation of polyester bottle - chip factories was slightly reduced [19]. - **Logical Analysis**: The raw material futures fell, the bottle - chip processing fee strengthened, and the production was reduced. It was expected to oscillate and sort out following the raw material end [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Styrene - **Market Review**: The BZ2503 main contract closed at 6144 (- 45/- 0.73%) during the day and 6164 (+ 20/+ 0.33%) at night. The EB2508 main contract closed at 7340 (- 138/- 1.85%) during the day and 7332 (- 8/- 0.11%) at night. The spot price of pure benzene and styrene changed [23]. - **Related News**: The styrene inventory in the East China main port increased, and some styrene devices were shut down for maintenance [23][24]. - **Logical Analysis**: The pure benzene price was expected to oscillate and sort out, and the styrene price was expected to show an oscillating trend due to supply and demand changes and inventory accumulation [24][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate and sort out, wait and see for arbitrage and options [25][26]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: The PVC spot market was slightly weak, and the caustic soda spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [26][27]. - **Related News**: The price of liquid chlorine in Shandong decreased [27]. - **Logical Analysis**: The PVC supply and demand were weak, the inventory increased, and there was a risk of new device production. The caustic soda price had a peak - season expectation, but the upward drive was reduced [27][28]. - **Trading Strategy**: For caustic soda, take profits on rallies for short - term long positions; for PVC, be bearish on the price in the medium and short term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options [29]. PP and PE - **Market Review**: The LLDPE market price was slightly weak, and the PP spot price in different regions decreased [29]. - **Related News**: The PP and PE maintenance ratios increased [29]. - **Logical Analysis**: There was a large capacity release pressure in the third quarter, the terminal demand was weak, and the price was bearish in the medium and short term [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Be bearish on the price in the medium and short term, wait and see for arbitrage and options [32]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash futures main 09 contract closed at 1214 yuan/ton (- 27/- 2.2%), and at night it closed at 1211 yuan (- 15/- 1.22%). The spot price in different regions changed [32]. - **Related News**: The domestic soda ash factory inventory increased, and some devices had maintenance or production plans [33]. - **Logical Analysis**: The soda ash supply decreased, the demand was weak, the inventory increased, and the profit decreased. The market expected the real - estate sector to adjust [33][34]. - **Trading Strategy**: The price is expected to be relatively strong, wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass futures main 09 contract closed at 1071 yuan/ton (- 31/- 2.81%), and at night it closed at 1069 yuan/ton (- 13/- 1.2%). The spot price in different regions was stable or slightly increased [35]. - **Related News**: The glass market price was stable with some increases, and the deep - processing order days decreased [35][37]. - **Logical Analysis**: The glass price was affected by the adjustment of real - estate expectations, the supply decreased last week, and attention should be paid to production and sales in the short term and cost and cold - repair in the medium term [37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to possible logical conversions, wait and see for arbitrage and options [37]. Methanol - **Market Review**: The methanol futures closed at 2374 at night (- 18/- 0.75%). The spot price in different regions varied [37][38]. - **Related News**: The weekly signing volume of methanol production enterprises in the Northwest increased [39]. - **Logical Analysis**: The international methanol device start - up rate increased, the import recovered, the domestic supply was loose, and the price was expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [39][40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [40]. Urea - **Market Review**: The urea futures fell to 1731 (- 33/- 1.87%). The spot price decreased slightly [40][41]. - **Related News**: The urea daily production increased, and the new Indian tender price was announced [41]. - **Logical Analysis**: The urea supply was large, the demand was weak, the inventory was high, and the price was expected to be strong in the short term but weak in the short - term operation [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillate weakly in the short term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options on rallies [42][43]. Log - **Market Review**: The log spot market was stable with some price decreases. The 9 - month contract price rose slightly [43][44]. - **Related News**: The import volume of logs and sawn timber in June decreased, and the real - estate development data was not good [43]. - **Logical Analysis**: The downstream demand was weak, and the price support and trading volume needed to be considered. The scale difference supported the disk price [44][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Wait and see for the near - month contract, pay attention to the 9 - 11 reverse spread, and wait and see for options [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The corrugated and box - board paper market was stable with some individual adjustments [46]. - **Related News**: The price of waste yellow - board paper increased, and the market trading atmosphere was average [46]. - **Logical Analysis**: The corrugated paper market was in a weak pattern, with sufficient supply and weak demand [46

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the content. Core Views of the Report The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities in the futures market, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own unique market situation and influencing factors, and the report gives corresponding trend judgments and strength indicators for each commodity. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate upward with a trend strength of 1 [2][10] - **Silver**: Expected to break through and move upward with a trend strength of 1 [2][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Domestic spot prices are firm, supporting the price, with a trend strength of 0 [2][14] - **Zinc**: Under pressure, with a trend strength of -1 [2][16] - **Lead**: The downside may be relatively limited, with a trend strength of 0 [2][19] - **Tin**: Prices are weakening, with a trend strength of -1 [2][24] - **Aluminum**: Under pressure in the off - season; Alumina is expected to oscillate within a range; The operating rate of cast aluminum alloy is declining. Trend strengths for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy are all 0 [2][27] - **Nickel**: The support at the ore end is loosening, and global refined nickel is accumulating marginally. Trend strength is 0 [2][33] - **Stainless Steel**: There is a game between reality and macro factors, and steel prices are oscillating. Trend strength is 0 [2][33] Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply - side news is causing disruptions, and high volatility may continue. Trend strength is 1 [2][36] - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are starting to accumulate, and attention should be paid to the upside space. Trend strength is 0 [2][39] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to spot trading. Trend strength is 0 [2][39] - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro expectations, it is expected to oscillate strongly. Trend strength is 1 [2][40] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][46] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][46] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][50] - **Manganese Silicide**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][50] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. Trend strength is 0 [2][54] - **Steam Coal**: Daily consumption is recovering, and it is expected to stabilize with oscillations. Trend strength is 0 [2][57] - **Para - Xylene**: There is a negative demand feedback, and the unilateral trend is weak. [2] - **PTA**: In the off - season of demand, the unilateral trend is weak. [2] - **MEG**: With low inventory, positive spreads can be taken when the monthly spread is low. [2] - **Rubber**: Expected to oscillate. [2] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Slightly回调. [2] - **Asphalt**: Expected to oscillate within a range. [2] - **LLDPE**: Expected to oscillate weakly. [2] - **PP**: Spot prices are loosening, and trading is light. [2] - **Caustic Soda**: Costs are declining, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. [2] - **Pulp**: Expected to oscillate. [2] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable. [2] - **Methanol**: Expected to oscillate in the short term. [2] - **Urea**: Spot trading continues to be weak, and it is under pressure with oscillations. [2] - **Styrene**: Spot liquidity is being released, and it is expected to oscillate weakly. [2] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market. [5] - **LPG**: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate weakly. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: It fell sharply during the day session, and it may temporarily stabilize in the short term. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market oscillates at a high level. [5] - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads lightly. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Expected to be in a short - term oscillating market. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, go long PR and short PF. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Expected to oscillate. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Expected to oscillate weakly. [5] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There are doubts about the复产 in the producing areas, waiting for the evolution of contradictions. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: There is insufficient speculation about the weather of US soybeans, lacking driving forces. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans declined slightly, and Dalian soybean meal may oscillate. [5] - **Soybean No. 1**: Technically strong, the market rebounds and oscillates. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate and adjust. [5] - **Sugar**: Mainly expected to consolidate within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: Expected to maintain a slightly strong oscillation. [5] - **Egg**: The expectation of a rebound in the peak season has been fulfilled, and the sentiment of culling has declined. [5] - **Pig**: Expected to maintain oscillations. [5] - **Peanut**: There is support at the bottom. [5] Others - **Log**: Expected to oscillate repeatedly, with a trend strength of 1 [2][61]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly mention overall industry investment ratings. Instead, it provides specific investment suggestions for different commodity futures contracts. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market is influenced by various factors such as US trade policies, liquidity, and geopolitical risks, leading to differentiated trends in different sectors [2]. - Different commodities have different supply - demand situations, which affect their price trends and investment opportunities. 3. Summary by Categories Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Indexes have broken through the upper edge of the short - term shock range, but caution is needed when testing key positions. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The central bank's reverse - repurchase operations may boost bond market sentiment. In the medium - term, the curve strategy recommends paying attention to certain operations [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are in high - level shock, and silver may have further pulse - type increases, but chasing high should be cautious [2]. Industrial Sector - **Shipping**: The container shipping index (European line) is expected to be in a strong - biased shock, and it is advisable to be cautiously bullish on the 08 contract [2]. - **Steel**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. Pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. Arbitrage operations such as long materials and short raw materials can be considered [2]. - **Black Metals**: Market sentiment has improved, and it is recommended to go long on iron ore, coking coal, and coke at low prices [2]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The US inventory replenishment has ended. For copper, pay attention to the support level; for aluminum and its alloys, the macro uncertainty is increasing, and the spot market is in a weak season [2]. Energy and Chemical Sector - **Energy**: Oil prices are likely to be in a strong - biased shock. For different chemical products, due to different supply - demand situations, various investment strategies such as waiting and seeing, long - short operations, and attention to price ranges are recommended [2]. Agricultural Sector - Different agricultural products have different price trends. For example, palm oil is strong, while sugar is recommended for short - selling on rebounds. Each product has specific price ranges and investment suggestions [2]. Special and New Energy Sectors - Special commodities such as glass and rubber are affected by macro - atmosphere. For new energy products like polysilicon and lithium carbonate, due to various factors, it is generally recommended to wait and see [2].

金十期货热图 纯苯-苯乙烯价差是指苯乙烯价格与纯苯价格之间的差额，本质上是苯乙烯生产的加工利润，该如何运用BZ-SM价差进行交易？ 一图了解。 0 策略2:做缩价差—预期苯乙烯产能释放或纯苯成本抬升 价差波动。 BZ-SM套利的实质是:通过做多/做空价差,押注加工利润的扩张或收 缩。 0 〔策略1:做扩价差—预期苯乙烯需求增长或纯苯供应过剩 03. 驱动BZ-SM价差变动的关键因素还有哪些? 宏观与政策扰动 关税政策(如美国对亚洲化工品加征关税)、原油波动及地缘冲突通过 成本传导或贸易流改变影响BZ供需;国内经济政策(如家电补贴)则通 过终端需求间接驱动SM相对强弱。 季节性规律 BZ-SM价差扩张与收敛具有季节性规律,也是进行价差套利的一个关键 依据。 5-10月 扩张期 3月价差环比2月上移的概率为87.5%,原因:5月起,建筑保温材料(EPS)进入施工旺 季,家电(ABS/PS)为下半年消费备货,汽车生产(车身轻量化)需求提升,共同推高 苯乙烯消费,SM价格相对BZ走强。 190 F. SM方面:装置检修导致供应收缩;家电排产提升、出口增量导致需求增 |交易逻辑 强;非一体化装置利润修复(原料BZ价格弱 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral [3] - Inter - period: Do reverse spreads on the MA09 - 01 inter - period spread when it is high [3] - Inter - variety: Narrow the PP01 - 3MA01 spread when it is high [3] Core Viewpoints - Overseas methanol production is operating at a high level, and the pressure of methanol arriving at Chinese ports remains high, leading to a stockpiling cycle at ports. The Xingxing MTO maintenance plan is yet to be implemented. If it is carried out smoothly, port demand will be further affected. Although the short - term situation at ports is weak, the market expects a significant scale of overseas gas - based methanol maintenance in the fourth quarter, which makes the long - term outlook optimistic [2] - In the inland region, short - term maintenance of inland coal - based methanol has led to a decline in supply. Although the formaldehyde in traditional downstream industries is in a seasonal off - season, the operating rates of MTBE and acetic acid are acceptable. The demand in the inland region remains resilient, and the inventory rebuilding rate of inland methanol factories is still slow. The inland market is stronger than the port market [2] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents figures related to methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) compared with the main futures contract, and inter - period spreads between different methanol futures contracts (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol, the MTO profit in East China, and import spreads such as the difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, as well as price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [25][28][29] III. Methanol Operating Rate, Inventory - The report provides data on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated ones), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated ones) [33][35] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc [37][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross margins of traditional downstream products such as Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][51]

化工日报 | 2025-07-15 成本端企稳反弹，EG价格上涨 核心观点 市场分析 期现货方面：昨日EG主力合约收盘价4357元/吨（较前一交易日变动+52元/吨，幅度+1.21%），EG华东市场现货价 4405元/吨（较前一交易日变动+22元/吨，幅度+0.50%），EG华东现货基差（基于2509合约）67元/吨（环比+2元/ 吨）。沙特几套产能分别为45、55、70万吨/年的乙二醇装置月初因电力问题降负荷/停车，近期重启不顺；另外煤 价在政策预期下持稳反弹，EG价格反弹。 生产利润方面：乙烯制EG生产利润为-58美元/吨（环比+0美元/吨），煤制合成气制EG生产利润为30元/吨（环比-12 元/吨）。 库存方面：根据 CCF 每周一发布的数据，MEG 华东主港库存为55.3万吨（环比-2.7万吨）；根据隆众每周四发布 的数据， MEG 华东主港库存为48.1万吨（环比-6.1万吨）。上周主港实际到货总数9.6万吨，周度港口库存小幅去 库；本周华东主港计划到港总数4.5万吨，但副港到货计划集中6.5万吨。 整体基本面供需逻辑：供应端，国内供应来看，检修集中期已过，乙二醇国产量呈现回升态势，7月负荷将逐步回 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market has seen a significant increase in companies forecasting mid-term losses, with 139 companies predicting losses and 152 companies expecting a decline in net profits, indicating a growing trend of financial distress among listed firms [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Among the 152 companies forecasting a decline in net profits, 10 companies expect a drop exceeding 1000%, with 9 of them shifting from profit to loss [2][4]. - China National Chemical Corporation (中化国际) anticipates a mid-term loss between 807 million to 949 million yuan, a staggering decline of 6649.8% to 7805.58% compared to the previous year [4][5]. - AOC Technology (冠捷科技), a leading global display manufacturer, projects a mid-term loss of 450 million to 490 million yuan, attributing the decline to intensified competition and rising costs [5]. Group 2: Notable Companies with Declining Profits - Hangzhou Steel (杭钢股份) forecasts a mid-term net loss of approximately 111 million yuan, representing a 204.63% decline year-on-year, despite a significant stock price increase earlier in the year [6][7]. - Yuanlong Yatu (元隆雅图) expects a mid-term net loss of 5 million to 10 million yuan, a decline of 119.39% to 138.78%, transitioning from profit to loss [8]. - Zhongke Jin Cai (中科金财) anticipates a mid-term net loss of 75 million to 105 million yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 51.43% to 112% [8]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the announcement of poor performance forecasts, Yuanlong Yatu experienced a significant drop in stock price, hitting the daily limit down [9].

| 甲醇日评20250714: 港口逐步累库,单边驱动有限 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/7/11 | 2025/7/10 | 变化值 (絕对值) | 变化值 (相对值) | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2443.00 | 2463.00 | -20.00 | -0.81% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 元/吨 | 2371.00 | 2380.00 | -9.00 | -0.38% | | (收盘价) MA09 | 元/吨 | 2370.00 | 2398.00 | -28.00 | -1.17% | | 太せ | 元/吨 | 2367.50 | 2390.00 | -22.50 | -0.94% | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2250.00 | 2255.00 | -5.00 | -0.22% | | 广东 期现价格 | 元/吨 | 2390.00 | 2412.50 | -22.50 | -0.93% | | 申醇观货价格 及其差 陕西 (日度均价) | 元/吨 | 2055.00 | 204 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core Views - Market analysis shows that due to the expected policy benefits from the Politburo meeting around mid - July, the macro - atmosphere has warmed up, leading to a rebound in EG prices. The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons, and there is still pressure for inventory to rise with the return of imports [1]. - On the supply side, domestic supply is gradually recovering, and the short - term supply - demand structure is still good. However, after the cancellation of warehouse receipts, the available spot in the market will increase. Overseas supply is expected to be loose as overseas plants are gradually restarting, with concentrated arrivals of foreign ships at the beginning of July. On the demand side, the current situation is strong, but several major bottle - chip manufacturers have concentrated maintenance plans, so the demand is expected to be weak [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 4325 yuan/ton (+42 yuan/ton, +0.98% compared to the previous trading day), and the EG spot price in the East China market was 4386 yuan/ton (+38 yuan/ton, +0.87% compared to the previous trading day). The EG spot basis in East China was 70 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] Production Profit and Operating Rate - The ethylene - based EG production profit was - 64 dollars/ton (down 1 dollar/ton month - on - month), and the coal - based syngas EG production profit was 10 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1] International Spread - No specific data provided in the given text Downstream Sales, Production and Operating Rate - No specific data provided in the given text Inventory Data - According to CCF data, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 58.0 tons (up 3.5 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data, it was 48.1 tons (down 6.1 tons month - on - month). The actual arrival at the main ports last week was 10.6 tons, with inventory reduction. This week, the planned arrival at the main ports in East China is 10.6 tons [1]