Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the entire有色金属 industry. Instead, it offers specific trading strategies for different metals, which can be considered as implicit investment suggestions for each metal sub - sector. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes multiple metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, stainless steel, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, lithium carbonate, and tin. It notes that market risk sentiment has improved due to potential trade agreements, but US macro - data is mixed, affecting the dollar and metal prices. For most metals, it believes that current prices are in an adjustment phase after a period of movement, with varying degrees of uncertainty in future supply and demand and price trends [3]. 3. Summary by Metal Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold rose 1.98% to $3239.6/oz, London silver rose 1.3% to $32.63/oz. The US dollar index fell 0.16% to 100.88, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.449%. The RMB - US dollar exchange rate rose 0.03% to 7.2067 [2]. - **Important News**: Japan seeks a third - round US - Japan trade negotiation, and the EU and the US will accelerate trade talks. US macro - data shows mixed results, with the 4 - month retail sales rate at 0.1%, and the 4 - month PPI annual rate at 2.4%. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 91.7% [2]. - **Logic Analysis**: The risk premium of precious metals may be cleared in the short term, but considering inflation and trade uncertainties, they are in an adjustment phase after a rapid rise [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buy on dips with light positions for single - side trading; wait and see for arbitrage and options [3]. Copper - **Market Review**: LME copper closed at $9600, up $8 or 0.08%. LME inventory decreased by 925 tons to 184,600 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1523 short tons to 168,563 short tons [5]. - **Important News**: US April PPI decreased by 0.5% month - on - month, the largest decline in five years [5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment supports prices. After the reduction of Sino - US tariffs, US scrap copper imports may flow back to China. The scrap - refined copper spread has decreased, and some enterprises have cut production. Copper inventory has increased [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the text. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session alumina 2509 contract rose to 2995 yuan/ton. Spot prices in various regions increased, and overseas market prices also rose [8]. - **Important News**: Overseas and domestic spot alumina transactions occurred, and the national alumina inventory decreased by 42,000 tons to 3.246 million tons [8][9]. - **Logic Analysis**: The balance between supply and demand has tightened due to increased maintenance capacity, but new production and potential resumption of production may change the situation [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect high - level fluctuations, consider shorting if supply - demand returns to surplus; wait and see for arbitrage and options [9][11]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2506 contract rose to 20,295 yuan/ton, and spot prices in different regions increased [13]. - **Important News**: The US revoked 91% of tariffs on Chinese goods, and China's April social financing and other financial data were announced. Aluminum inventory decreased by 8000 tons [13][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The easing of Sino - US trade relations improves demand expectations, and low inventory in May may support prices [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect prices to oscillate strongly; wait and see for arbitrage and options [16]. Zinc - **Market Review**: LME zinc fell 1.25% to $2726/ton, and Shanghai zinc 2506 fell 0.64% to 22,595 yuan/ton. Spot trading was light [18]. - **Important News**: US April PPI data was released, and domestic zinc inventory increased by 30,000 tons to 863,000 tons [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Global zinc mine supply is increasing, and domestic production is expected to be stable in May. Supply growth exceeds demand growth, and inventory may accumulate [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: consider shorting on rallies, beware of capital - driven price fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage and options [21]. Lead - **Market Review**: LME lead rose 0.52% to $2004.5/ton, and Shanghai lead 2506 rose 0.62% to 17,025 yuan/ton. Spot trading was mainly for rigid demand [23]. - **Important News**: Lead inventory increased by 85,000 tons to 560,000 tons, and sellers' willingness to sell increased while buyers were cautious [24]. - **Logic Analysis**: Both supply and demand of lead are weak, and prices may oscillate [25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in the text. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel rose to $15,805/ton, and Shanghai nickel NI2506 rose to 125,230 yuan/ton. Spot premiums decreased [26]. - **Important News**: A nickel project in Tanzania is planned to start construction, and a Philippine company's Q1 net profit increased significantly [26][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term news affects sentiment, but fundamentals change little. Supply may increase after weather improves, and demand is entering the off - season [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect range - bound fluctuations; wait and see for arbitrage; consider selling options within the range [30]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The stainless steel SS2507 contract fell to 13,020 yuan/ton, and spot prices were stable. Social inventory decreased by 0.42% [32]. - **Important News**: Not provided in the text. - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term prices may oscillate above cost. 300 - series production is decreasing, and demand is affected by macro - factors [34]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect short - term strong oscillations; wait and see for arbitrage [34]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures contract rose 0.36% to 8410 yuan/ton, and spot prices were stable [36]. - **Important News**: A new project's environmental impact report was publicized [36]. - **Logic Analysis**: Production is expected to increase in May, while demand from organic silicon and polycrystalline silicon is weak. Supply exceeds demand, and inventory is over 800,000 tons [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short on rallies; wait and see for options; conduct reverse arbitrage for Si2511 and Si2512 [36][38]. Polycrystalline Silicon - **Market Review**: The polycrystalline silicon futures contract fell 0.68% to 37,920 yuan/ton, and spot prices declined slightly [39]. - **Important News**: A report predicted global photovoltaic market growth [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand both decreased in May, and there may be a shortage of deliverable goods for the 06 contract. The 07 contract may follow fundamental logic [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short the PS2507 contract; or short - term long PS2506 and short PS2507, then switch to short - side allocation; sell PS2507 - C - 40000 options; conduct long PS2506 and short PS2507 arbitrage [42][43]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The 2507 contract fell to 64,120 yuan/ton, and spot prices rose slightly [44]. - **Important News**: A futures brand was solicited, and a UK miner faced export obstacles [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Low - cost producers have profits, demand is weak, and there is an oversupply expectation in May and June [44]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: short on rebounds; wait and see for arbitrage; hold put ratio options [45]. Tin - **Market Review**: Shanghai tin rose 0.18% to 265,850 yuan/ton, and spot trading was light [47]. - **Important News**: Indonesia's tin exports increased year - on - year in April, and US PPI data was released [47][48]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro sentiment is positive, and short - term supply is tight, but the annual supply - demand tightness is relieved [48]. - **Trading Strategy**: Single - side trading: expect short - term oscillations, pay attention to supply; wait and see for options [48].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot prices of industrial silicon and polysilicon have stabilized, and the futures market has rebounded this week. The supply side is under pressure, and cost support has weakened recently. With the approaching of the wet season in the southwest, there is a possibility of production resumption. The demand side is mainly based on rigid procurement, and consumption remains relatively weak. Polysilicon may further reduce production, and organic silicon enterprises face high cost pressure. The overall industry inventory and warehouse receipt pressure are still relatively high, and attention should be paid to the production resumption in the southwest wet season and the impact of macro - sentiment [2] - The recent polysilicon futures market is affected by the game between weak fundamentals and warehouse receipt delivery, resulting in intensified market fluctuations. The increase in warehouse receipts yesterday was significant, and attention should be paid to the sustainability of this increase [6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak and volatile trend. The main contract 2506 opened at 8450 yuan/ton and closed at 8410 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton (- 0.36%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2505 was 124014 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts on May 15, 2025, was 66433 lots, a change of - 98 lots from the previous day [1] - The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9700 - 10300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8200 - 8400 yuan/ton. The prices of mainstream silicon in many other regions also remained stable, while the price of 97 silicon decreased in some cases [1] - The consumption side showed signs of improvement. The domestic high - temperature rubber downstream and terminal enterprises started to purchase. The main reason was that the volume of foreign trade orders increased due to the reduction of trade war tariffs, the domestic downstream production started to increase, the willingness to purchase raw materials strengthened, and the trading volume recovered [1] Strategy - Not provided in the content Risk - Not provided in the content Polysilicon Market Analysis - On May 15, 2025, the main contract 2506 of polysilicon futures maintained a wide - range fluctuation, opening at 38100 yuan/ton and closing at 37920 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.68% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 37985 lots (44692 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume on that day was 136753 lots [4] - The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of polysilicon re - feeding material was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg, dense material was 33.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg, cauliflower material was 30.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg, granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg, N - type material was 37.00 - 40.50 yuan/kg (- 0.75 yuan/kg), and N - type granular silicon was 34.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg [4] - The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers decreased, and the silicon wafer inventory also significantly decreased. The newly - counted polysilicon inventory was 25.00 (a month - on - month change of - 2.27%), the silicon wafer inventory was 19.44GW (a month - on - month change of 7.22%), the weekly polysilicon output was 21400.00 tons (a month - on - month change of 0.00%), and the silicon wafer output was 12.42GW (a month - on - month change of 0.50%) [4][5] - The prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components were provided. For example, the price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.95 yuan/piece (- 0.03 yuan/piece), and the price of efficient PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations, and upstream enterprises should sell for hedging at high prices [4] - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None Risk - Production resumption in the southwest and production suspension in the northwest [4] - Changes in the operation of polysilicon enterprises [4] - Policy disturbances [4] - Industry self - discipline's impact on upstream and downstream operations [7] - The impact of futures listing on the spot market [7] - The impact of capital sentiment [7] - Policy disturbances [7] - Macro and capital sentiment [3] - The operation situation of organic silicon enterprises [3]

Report Summary - **Report Date**: May 15, 2025 [1] - **Report Type**: Industrial Silicon Industry Daily Report - **Researcher**: Wang Fuhui - **Futures Qualification Number**: F03123381 - **Investment Consulting Certificate Number**: Z0019878 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - Supply is at a low level, demand is decreasing, and inventory remains high. There was a slight rebound today with increased trading volume, showing obvious short - term bottom signs. It is recommended to appropriately buy short - term long positions on dips and adopt a high - selling strategy for medium - to long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,410 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the position of the main contract was 124,014 lots, down 22,511 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 22,944 lots, down 5,205 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX were 66,433 lots, down 98 lots; the spread between the June - July contracts was - 30, up 5 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - blown 553 silicon was 9,100 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon was 10,000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract was 690 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the spot price of DMC was 11,680 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke was 1,930 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips was 540 yuan/ton, unchanged; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - Industrial silicon production was 335,750 tons per month, up 46,400 tons; industrial silicon social inventory was 596,000 tons per week, down 7,000 tons; industrial silicon imports were 2,211.36 tons per month, up 71.51 tons; industrial silicon exports were 52,919.65 tons per month, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 39,500 tons, down 100 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.34 US dollars/kg, down 0.05 US dollars/kg; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy was 18,176.9 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 60.05%, down 0.06 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy was 1.655 million tons, up 103,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy was 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - Tuori Xineng (002218.SZ) stated on May 8 that the company currently has self - owned power stations with a capacity of over 500MW and 300MW of centralized photovoltaic power stations and some industrial and commercial distributed projects under construction. The Lianzhou Hongrisheng 200MW comprehensive utilization photovoltaic power station project is in progress, and the Xi'an industrial park construction project is in the interior decoration stage [2] 3.7 View Summary - On the supply side, large factories have stable operations, small and medium - sized enterprises have low willingness to start, and the start - up in the southwest region remains low with delayed or cancelled restart plans. On the demand side, the photovoltaic industry's operating rate is low due to the industry self - regulatory agreement, the terminal rush - installation demand has cooled, the supply - demand imbalance in the silicon material link has intensified, and the procurement enthusiasm for industrial silicon has declined. The price of organic silicon has declined again, and related enterprises have further reduced production. The aluminum alloy industry has mediocre performance, with weak export demand, further restricting the growth of industrial silicon demand [2] 3.8 Key Focus - No news today [2]

关注微信公众号 | V (FF) | *业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年5月15日 | | | | 纪工菲 Z0013180 | | | 现货价格及主力合约基差 | | | | | | | 品相 | 5月14日 | 5月13日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 华东通氧SI5530工业硅 | 0000 | 9100 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 基美(通氢SI5530基准) | eto | 870 | -260 | -29.89% | | | 华东SI4210工业硅 | 10000 | 10000 | 0 | 0.00% | 元/吨 | | 基差(SI4210基准) | 710 | 970 | -260 | -26.80% | | | 新疆99硅 | 8300 | 8300 | 0 | 0.00% | | | 墓差(新疆) | 610 | 870 | -260 | -29.89% | | | 月间价差 | | | | | | | 合约 | 5月14日 | 5 ...

宏观情绪好转，工业硅期货减仓上涨 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-05-15 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-05-14，工业硅期货价格反弹上涨，主力合约2506开于8305元/吨，最后收于8490元/吨，较前一日结算变化（225） 元/吨，变化（2.72）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓146525手，2025-05-15仓单总数为66531手，较前一日变化 37手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在9000-9200（0）元/吨；421#硅在9700-10300 （0）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格8200-8400（0）元/吨，99硅价格在8200-8400（0）元/吨。天津、西北、上海地区暂 稳。昆明、黄埔港、新疆、四川地区硅价个别硅价持续走低。97硅今日价格同样暂稳。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，有机硅成本压力较大，但关税问题 缓解后，对有机硅终端产品出口利好较大，有机硅消费或好转，关注后续下游采购原料意愿。 整体来看，工业硅持续下跌后，由于宏观情绪好转，前期空单资金有获利离场，导致盘面减仓上行。基本面方面， ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report focuses on the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including futures market data, price, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also mentions a significant industrial silicon project in Xinjiang and the trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon [2][4]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: For industrial silicon, Si2506 had a closing price of 8,490 yuan/ton, with volume of 382,636 hands and open interest of 146,525 hands. For polysilicon, PS2506 closed at 38,420 yuan/ton, with volume of 236,082 hands and open interest of 44,692 hands [2]. - **Price and Profit**: Industrial silicon prices showed declines in some regions. Polysilicon - N type re - feed material was priced at 39,500 yuan/ton. Silicon factory profits were mostly negative. Polysilicon enterprise profit was - 3.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon social inventory was 59.6 million tons, and polysilicon factory inventory was 25.7 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Costs**: Prices of raw materials like silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, etc., had different trends. For example, Xinjiang silicon ore was 440 yuan/ton, and Xinjiang washed coal decreased by 50 yuan/ton compared to T - 5 [2]. Macro and Industry News On May 9th, the 100,000 - ton industrial silicon technological transformation project of Xinjiang Yaoju Silicon - based New Materials Co., Ltd. in Heshuo County started. The project has a total investment of 1.268 billion yuan and is expected to bring significant economic benefits after production [4]. Trend Strength The trend strength of both industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [4].

Group 1: Investment Ratings and General Market Outlook - No explicit report industry investment rating provided [1] - The core view is that various commodities show different trends based on factors such as national policies, trade negotiation results, and supply - demand fundamentals. Market sentiment has been affected by factors like China - US trade talks and inflation data [1] Group 2: Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index**: Since April, with the support of national policies and Central Huijin's funds, the stock index has recovered the technical gap formed by the tariff shock on April 2. The current risk - return ratio of chasing the rise is not high. Holders of long positions can consider reducing positions on rallies [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: Short - term market risk appetite has recovered, and the gold price may enter a consolidation phase, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [1] - **Silver**: Overall, it follows gold, but an unexpected tariff result will benefit the commodity attribute of silver, so the short - term resilience of the silver price may be stronger than that of gold [1] Group 3: Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: The result of China - US trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and short - term market sentiment has improved. However, the copper price has significantly rebounded and may fluctuate [1] - **Aluminum and Alumina**: The aluminum electrolysis industry has no obvious contradictions. With the unexpected result of China - US trade negotiations, the aluminum price continues to rebound. Supply disturbances of bauxite and alumina have increased, and the supply - demand pattern of alumina has improved. The short - term price may further rebound [1] - **Zinc**: Although the macro sentiment has improved, the terminal demand has weakened significantly in the off - season, and with the inflow of imported goods, the zinc price remains weak [1] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: US inflation has cooled more than expected, and the result of China - US talks has exceeded market expectations. The export order expectation of terminals has improved, and market risk appetite is expected to recover. The Indonesian resource tax policy has been implemented, and the premium of nickel ore is high. There are rumors of a mining ban in the Philippines, but the implementation is difficult. The nickel price fluctuates in the short term, and there is still pressure from the surplus of primary nickel in the medium - to - long term. The short - term stainless steel futures fluctuate and rebound, but there is still supply pressure in the medium - to - long term [1] - **Tin**: With the unexpected result of China - US talks and improved macro sentiment, the tin price is expected to rebound. The resumption of production in Wa State needs to be continuously monitored [1] - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is strong, demand is weak, it has entered the low - valuation range, demand has not improved, inventory pressure has not been relieved, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The number of registered warehouse receipts is extremely small, the first delivery is approaching, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, and the willingness to register warehouse receipts is low, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply has not further shrunk, the visible inventory has continued to accumulate, the downstream raw material inventory is at a high level, downstream still maintains rigid - demand purchases at low prices, and the China - US tariff negotiation result is unexpected [1] Group 4: Ferrous Metals Sector - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: The trade turmoil has intensified the pressure on the export chain. The short - term risk appetite is slightly poor, and the opening price dives downward [1] - **Iron Ore**: The tariff policy affects market sentiment, and the iron ore with strong financial attributes is under short - term pressure [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: There is still an expectation of decline under the expectation of manganese ore surplus, and the variety has heavy warehouse - receipt pressure [1] - **Silicon Iron**: The cost is dragged down by thermal coal, but the production reduction in the production area is large, and the supply - demand situation has become tight [1] - **Glass**: The situation of weak supply and demand continues. With the arrival of the rainy season, there are concerns about weakening demand, and the price continues to be weak [1] - **Soda Ash**: There are many overhauls in May, and the direct demand is okay, but there is medium - term supply surplus, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The supply and demand of coking coal and coke are relatively surplus and are short - positioned in the sector. It is recommended that industrial customers actively seize the opportunities of cash - and - carry arbitrage and selling hedging when the market rebounds to a premium. Consider participating in the JM9 - 1 calendar spread arbitrage [1] Group 5: Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: The rise in crude oil will drive the rebound of palm oil, and the China - US talks will drag down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to short after the crude oil price falls [1] - **Soybean Oil**: China - US talks are expected to have a negative impact on soybean oil sentiment in the short term, dragging down the soybean - palm oil price spread. It is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The northern rapeseed - producing areas in Europe are still dry, which is not conducive to the formation of rapeseed yield per unit in the bolting stage. The China - Canada relationship is still uncertain. If Canada cancels the additional tariffs on China, it is expected to cause a large decline. Consider long - volatility strategies [1] - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the consumption off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream finished products. It is expected that the domestic cotton price will maintain a weak and fluctuating trend [1] - **Sugar**: According to the latest forecast of the Brazilian National Supply Company, Brazil's sugarcane production in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 663.4 million tons, a 2% decline from the previous year. The sugar production is expected to reach a record 4.59 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year. If the crude oil price continues to be weak, it may affect the sugar - making ratio in Brazil's new crushing season and lead to an unexpected increase in sugar production [1] - **Corn**: The overall situation of deep - processing in the Northeast has stabilized, the decline in Shandong's deep - processing has slowed down. The import corn auction policy and China - US economic and trade talks have a negative impact on sentiment. The market回调 in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips and pay attention to the C07 - C01 calendar spread arbitrage [1] - **Soybean Meal**: There is no driving force for speculation in US soybean planting. The domestic market continues to digest the negative factors of spot pressure and Brazilian selling pressure, and the market is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Pulp**: After the positive impact of the unexpected China - US trade negotiation on pulp futures is realized, the fundamentals still lack upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate [1] - **Logs**: The arrival volume of logs remains high, the overall inventory is high, and the price of terminal products has declined. There is no short - term positive factor, and it is expected to fluctuate at a low level [1] - **Pigs**: With the continuous repair of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight continues to increase. The market expectation is obvious, the futures price is at a large discount to the spot price, and there are no bright spots in the downstream [1] Group 6: Energy and Chemical Sector - **Crude Oil - Related (Fuel Oil, Palm Oil)**: The result of China - US trade negotiations far exceeds market expectations, reducing concerns about weakening demand. After a sharp decline, there is a demand for rebound and repair [1] - **BR Rubber**: The result of China - US trade negotiations is unexpected. In the short term, the raw material cost support is strengthened due to rainfall in the production area. In the medium - to - long term, the fundamentals are loose, and demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline [1] - **PTA, Short - Fiber, and Related Products**: The upstream PX device is under intensive maintenance, and the internal - external price difference of PX has been significantly repaired. The demand for PTA is supported by the high load of polyester. The PTA shortage strengthens the cost support for short - fiber, and short - fiber performs strongly under the high basis [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Ethylene glycol devices are under maintenance, large - scale devices in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have reduced their loads, and coal - based devices have started to be overhauled [1] - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The improvement of China - US tariff policies stimulates market speculative demand, the pure benzene price gradually strengthens, the profit of the reforming device declines, and the downstream demand for styrene is expected to pick up [1] - **Methanol**: The basis strengthens, the trading volume is average. In the short term, the methanol price fluctuates in a range and is slightly strong. In the medium - to - long term, the methanol spot market may change from strong to weak and fluctuate [1] - **PE, PP, PVC, and Caustic Soda**: For PE, the basis strengthens, and the trading volume is general. It fluctuates slightly strongly in the short term and may change from strong to weak in the medium - to - long term. For PP, some previously overhauled devices have resumed operation, demand is stable, and it fluctuates slightly strongly with macro - positive factors. For PVC, the fundamentals are weak, and it rebounds in the short term with macro - positive factors. For caustic soda, the spot demand is weak, and the driving force for price increase is insufficient, and the price fluctuates weakly [1]

工业硅产业日报 2025-05-14 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 8490 | 260 主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 146525 | -15774 | | | 前20名净持仓(日,手) | -16256 | -3647 广期所仓单(日,手) | 66531 | 37 | | | 6-7月合约价差 | -35 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 通氧553#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 9100 | 0 421#硅平均价(日,元/吨) | 10000 | 0 | | | Si主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 610 | -260 DMC现货价(日,元/吨) | 11680 | 0 | | 上游情况 | 硅石平均价(日,元/吨) | 410 | 0 石油焦平均价(日,元/吨) | 1930 | 0 | | | 精煤平均价(日,元/吨) | 1850 | 0 木片平均价(日,元/吨) | 540 | 0 | | | 石墨电极(400mm ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The industrial silicon market remains weak with an imbalance between supply and demand, lacking positive price drivers in the short - term. It is expected to maintain a volatile and weak consolidation, with a trading range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton, and a strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. The polysilicon market shows both supply and demand weakness, and it will take time to relieve inventory pressure. The price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and cautious operation is advised [2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Industrial Silicon 3.1.1 Cost and Profit - As the southwest production area enters the flat - rate period, the power cost will decline. After high - cost northern enterprises shut down, the overall in - production cost of the industry will decrease, but the cost side provides insufficient support for silicon prices [2]. - In April, the average profit of national industrial silicon 553 was - 2,001 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 290 yuan/ton; the average profit of 421 was - 2,085 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 83 yuan/ton [37]. 3.1.2 Supply - Northern supply continues to decline, while the southwest production area is gradually starting furnaces. In Sichuan, the power price in the flat - rate period has decreased, leading to an increase in operation. The power price in the wet season is expected to decline compared to last year, and there are plans to add more silicon furnaces. In Yunnan, the negotiation of preferential power prices for the wet season is ongoing. Some enterprises have low willingness to start production due to unprofitable power costs, and the mainstream start - up time is expected to be around the end of June [2]. - In the week of May 8th, the overall start - up of silicon enterprises decreased slightly, with the number of operating furnaces decreasing by 1. The overall start - up of industrial silicon was stable, showing a pattern of increase in the south and decrease in the north [38][39]. 3.1.3 Demand - Downstream demand is weak, market transactions are low, and most are low - price transactions. Polysilicon plants maintain large - scale production cuts; the organic silicon industry maintains reduced production; the demand for silicon - aluminum alloy has weakened, and it purchases industrial silicon based on rigid demand [2]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Social inventory remains at a high level, and there is significant short - term inventory reduction pressure. As of May 8th, the social inventory of industrial silicon (warehouse inventory + delivery warehouse) was 59.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70 tons; the total factory inventory of Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Sichuan was 26.49 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38 tons [2][114]. 3.1.5 Price - The spot transaction price continues to decline. As of May 9th, compared with April 30th, the prices of various types of industrial silicon in different regions have decreased to varying degrees [8]. 3.2 Polysilicon 3.2.1 Supply - The industry's self - disciplined production cuts continue. In April, the polysilicon output was 9.54 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.07 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 8.58 tons. In May, some silicon material plants will have new production capacity, but many enterprises also have production cut arrangements. It is expected that the production in May will decline to around 9 tons [63][64]. 3.2.2 Demand - Downstream purchasing willingness is low, and the mentality of bargaining is obvious. The long - term component orders have significantly decreased, the price of photovoltaic components has continued to decline, and the demand for battery cells from the component side has decreased [2]. 3.2.3 Inventory - As of May 8th, the polysilicon inventory was 25.7 tons, a decrease of 0.4 tons [64]. 3.2.4 Price - As of May 9th, compared with April 30th, the prices of N - type materials, re - feeding materials, dense materials, and cauliflower materials remained unchanged [8]. 3.3 Organic Silicon 3.3.1 Supply - In April, the operating rate of China's DMC was 58.58%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.11 percentage points, and the output was 17.28 tons, a month - on - month decline. Although the operating rate rebounded slightly last week, it is expected to continue to decline in May, and the subsequent operating load may be further reduced to around 55% [85]. 3.3.2 Price - Organic silicon prices have continued to decline. As of May 9th, the average price of DMC was 11,550 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.43%; the average price of 107 glue was 12,400 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.81%; the average price of silicone oil was 14,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.04% [91]. 3.4 Silicon - Aluminum Alloy 3.4.1 Supply - In the week of May 8th, the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 55.2%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 55%, a month - on - month increase of 2.5 percentage points [100]. 3.4.2 Price - Aluminum alloy prices have decreased. As of May 8th, the average price of ADC12 was 20,300 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.98%; the average price of A356 was 20,050 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.20% [103].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of the industrial silicon industry are weak. Although there has been some production reduction on the supply side, the approaching wet season in the southwest region is expected to increase supply. The falling prices of silicon coal and electricity during the wet season have weakened cost support. On the consumption side, performance is weak, with the possibility of further production cuts [2]. - The futures market for polysilicon has been volatile recently. Downstream production scheduling has decreased month-on-month. News of joint production cuts by silicon material factories has had a significant impact on the market. Attention should be paid to changes in the number of warehouse receipts and the impact of position reduction on the market [6]. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - On May 13, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2506 opened at 8,320 yuan/ton and closed at 8,230 yuan/ton, a change of -50 yuan/ton (-0.60%) from the previous settlement. As of the close, the main contract 2505 had a position of 162,299 lots, and on May 14, 2025, the total number of warehouse receipts was 66,494 lots, a change of -603 lots from the previous day [1]. - Industrial silicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM data, the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in East China was 9,000 - 9,200 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,700 - 10,300 yuan/ton; the price of oxygenated 553 silicon in Xinjiang was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton; and 99 silicon was 8,200 - 8,400 yuan/ton. In recent days, downstream alloy users have placed orders, and some traders reported improved trading volumes compared to last week. Sellers' quotes remained stable, but downstream users still had a tendency to bargain [1]. - According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of organic silicon DMC was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton. Domestic organic silicon DMC enterprises maintained stable quotes, with local transaction prices slightly decreasing. The overall transaction range was 11,300 - 11,600 yuan/ton, but market transaction expectations were not strong. Downstream enterprises mainly replenished inventory as needed. It is expected that after May 20, downstream enterprises' raw material inventories will be depleted, which may drive market trading volumes [1]. Polysilicon - On May 13, 2025, the main polysilicon futures contract 2507 rose significantly and then declined. It opened at 38,230 yuan/ton and closed at 38,270 yuan/ton, a 0.91% change from the previous trading day. The main contract had a position of 52,252 lots (69,417 lots the previous day) and a trading volume of 321,982 lots [4]. - Polysilicon spot prices remained stable. According to SMM statistics, the quoted price of polysilicon reclaimed material was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg; dense polysilicon was 34.00 - 35.00 yuan/kg; cauliflower polysilicon was 31.00 - 32.00 yuan/kg; granular silicon was 33.00 - 34.00 yuan/kg; N-type material was 37.00 - 44.00 yuan/kg; and N-type granular silicon was 35.00 - 36.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventories decreased, as did silicon wafer inventories. The latest statistics showed polysilicon inventory at 25.70 (a month-on-month change of -1.90%), silicon wafer inventory at 18.13GW (a month-on-month change of -12.08%), weekly polysilicon production at 21,400.00 tons (a month-on-month change of -4.46%), and silicon wafer production at 12.35GW (a month-on-month change of -7.07%) [4][5]. - For silicon wafers, the price of domestic N-type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 0.98 yuan/piece, N-type 210mm was 1.30 yuan/piece, and N-type 210R silicon wafers were 1.10 yuan/piece. For battery cells, the price of high-efficiency PERC182 battery cells was 0.29 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cells were about 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon M10 battery cells were about 0.27 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cells were 0.28 yuan/W; Topcon 210RN battery cells were 0.27 yuan/W; and HJT210 half-cell batteries were 0.37 yuan/W. For components, the mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N-type 182mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W, and N-type 210mm was 0.69 - 0.70 yuan/W [5]. Strategies Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Mainly conduct range operations. Upstream enterprises should sell on rallies for hedging [3]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [3]. - Cross - variety: None [3]. - Spot - futures: None [3]. - Options: None [3]. Polysilicon - Unilateral: Be cautiously bullish on the 2506 contract [7]. - Inter - delivery spread: None [7]. - Cross - variety: None [7]. - Spot - futures: None [7]. - Options: None [7].