1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The industrial silicon and polysilicon futures markets are significantly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with relatively stable fundamentals. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation, while the polysilicon market is mainly dominated by policy expectations and has large overall fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices [3][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price rose significantly. The main contract 2511 opened at 8400 yuan/ton and closed at 8700 yuan/ton, with a change of 305 yuan/ton (3.63%) compared to the previous day's settlement. The position of the 2509 main contract was 208,736 lots at the close, and the total number of warehouse receipts was 50,580 lots, a change of - 226 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon increased. For example, the price of East China oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 yuan/ton [1] - The Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region decided to abolish the "Notice on Printing and Distributing the Work Guide for the Consultation Mechanism for the Identification of Compliance Capacity of Industrial Silicon in the Autonomous Region", and relevant departments will continue to implement "window guidance" for new and technological transformation projects of industrial silicon. Industry associations in Yunnan and Sichuan issued an initiative against involution and for high - quality development. The policy disturbances had an impact on the market. The consumer - side organic silicon DMC was quoted at 12,100 - 12,500 yuan/ton, with stable prices, general trading, and mainly rigid - demand purchases [2] Strategy - The current market is greatly affected by policy disturbances and capital sentiment, with little change in fundamentals. It is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillatory operation. The strategy for the single - side is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Polysilicon Market Analysis - On August 6, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures rose, opening at 50,300 yuan/ton and closing at 51,345 yuan/ton, with a closing - price change of 3.23% compared to the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 138,396 lots (127,587 lots the previous trading day), and the trading volume was 420,201 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The polysilicon manufacturer's inventory decreased, the silicon wafer inventory increased, the weekly polysilicon production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and the silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [5] - In July, component enterprises slightly increased production, but the recent price fluctuations affected production enthusiasm. Distributed demand improved marginally but was still at a low level, and centralized demand had waiting and pressure - exerting behaviors from central state - owned enterprises. It is expected that the output in August will decrease slightly month - on - month, with better production and shipment of large - size components led by HJT [6] Strategy - In August, the production in the southwest is expected to increase significantly, the polysilicon inventory will rise, the delivery rhythm of previous orders will slow down, and the signing of new orders is limited except for granular silicon. The market is more watchful. The current market is mainly dominated by policy expectations, with large fluctuations. In the long - term, polysilicon is suitable for long - position layout at low prices. The short - term single - side strategy is interval operation, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [7][8]

2025年08月07日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 | 观点与策略 | | --- | | 镍：多空博弈加剧，镍价窄幅震荡 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：供需现实拖累，原料成本限制下方空间 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：智利出口回升，关注矿证续期情况 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注市场情绪发酵 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注今日市场消息 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 121,070 | 160 | -650 | -2,300 | 530 | -3,560 | | 期 | | 不锈钢主力（收盘价） | 12,935 | -25 | 15 | 35 | 295 | 200 | | 货 | | 沪镍主力（成交量） | 87,840 | 3,022 | -65, ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (indicating a slight bullish/bearish trend with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★☆☆ [1] - Zinc: No specific rating provided - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall market of non - ferrous metals shows a complex situation with different trends for each metal. Some metals are affected by factors such as supply - demand fundamentals, production disruptions, policy expectations, and market sentiment. Each metal has its own trading strategies based on its specific situation [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper oscillated below the MA60 moving average and closed positive. The current copper price was 78,350 yuan, with a premium of 100 yuan in Shanghai and a discount of 55 yuan in Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 660 yuan. The market was evaluating the impact of the Codelco underground mine accident on the annual production target, with a risk of increased supply loss rate in the second half of the year. LME copper might oscillate down to $9,500, and short positions were recommended to be held [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum rebounded slightly, with a spot discount of 40 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingots had been accumulating inventory for two consecutive weeks, and the apparent consumption in the off - season decreased significantly year - on - year. However, the output of aluminum rods increased month - on - month, and the inventory peak might appear in August. Shanghai aluminum was expected to oscillate in the short term, with support around 20,200 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price was raised by 100 yuan to 19,700 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the profit of the aluminum alloy industry was poor. In the medium term, it had certain toughness relative to the aluminum price. Alumina was under pressure and oscillating, with limited downward space [2] Zinc - The rebound trend of "anti - involution" black varieties was difficult to disprove. Shanghai zinc short - sellers reduced positions on dips, and the price rebounded. The downstream had stocked up at low prices before and was less willing to buy at high prices, resulting in a light spot trading volume. The fundamental situation of increasing supply and weak demand still dominated the medium - term short - selling strategy. However, due to positive expectations of domestic fiscal policies and Fed rate cuts during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, Shanghai zinc had a high probability of a phased rebound. Traders were advised to wait for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market trading was active. The speculation on the "anti - involution" theme cooled down rapidly, and nickel, with relatively poor fundamentals, returned to its fundamentals more quickly. The inventory of ferronickel was basically stable at 33,000 tons, the pure nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 39,000 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 100 tons to 966,000 tons. Traders were advised to pay attention to the end of the destocking process [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillated during the session, and it was expected to be in an oscillating market. Overseas tin prices were supported by low visible inventory and a decline in Indonesia's production in the first half of the year. In China, attention was paid to the change in high social inventory due to the game between the major factory maintenance plan and weak consumption. Traders were advised to close high - level short positions and wait and see [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate oscillated weakly, and the market trading volume shrank. After the price fluctuated repeatedly, the futures - spot lock was unlocked, and a large amount of goods entered the market. The total market inventory decreased slightly to 142,000 tons, and the smelter production decreased by 8% week - on - week. The price was expected to oscillate around 70,000 yuan [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures closed strongly. Xinjiang abolished the notice on the compliance capacity certification of industrial silicon, but it was clear that window guidance would still be implemented later. The spot price remained stable. In August, both supply and demand increased. The futures were expected to oscillate in the short term [9] Polysilicon - The futures price of polysilicon continued to rise, partly driven by the strength of coking coal. The SMM average price of polysilicon re - feed was 47,000 yuan/ton. The price was expected to oscillate in the range of 48,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton, and traders were advised to pay attention to the sentiment transmission of coking coal and strengthen position risk control [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to show a slowdown trend. Industrial silicon rose due to the increase in coking coal today, but the spot price did not perform well. It is expected that the spot will drag down the upward movement of futures. In terms of operation, it is recommended to temporarily wait and see in the short - term and maintain a short - selling strategy in the medium - to - long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 8,700 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 250 yuan/ton; the main contract position was 208,736 lots, a week - on - week increase of 56,958 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 66,326 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 9,647 lots; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt was 50,806 lots, a week - on - week increase of 494 lots; the price difference between September and October industrial silicon was - 25 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - permeable 553 silicon was 9,250 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the average price of 421 silicon was 9,700 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change; the basis of the Si main contract was 550 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 250 yuan/ton; the DMC spot price was 12,300 yuan/ton, with no week - on - week change [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica was 410 yuan/ton, the average price of petroleum coke was 1,750 yuan/ton, the average price of clean coal was 1,850 yuan/ton, the average price of wood chips was 490 yuan/ton, and the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) was 12,250 yuan/ton, all with no week - on - week change [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly industrial silicon output was 305,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons; the weekly industrial silicon social inventory was 552,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons; the monthly industrial silicon import volume was 2,211.36 tons, a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons; the monthly industrial silicon export volume was 52,919.65 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC was 44,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 700 tons; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 15.75 US dollars/kg; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot was 20,200 yuan/ton; the weekly average spot price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon was 4.94 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unwrought aluminum alloy was 25,770.18 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,590.89 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC was 70.08%, a week - on - week increase of 4.97%; the monthly aluminum alloy output was 1.669 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 24,000 tons; the monthly aluminum alloy export volume was 20,187.85 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - On August 1st, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued the Notice on the Special Energy - Saving Supervision Tasks for the Polysilicon Industry in 2025, involving 41 enterprises. In the industrial silicon sector, the supply situation this week is complex. The resumption of production in the south - western production areas during the wet season is accelerating, and many enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan have started furnaces. New production capacity is expected to be released next week, mainly from small and medium - sized enterprises, which will challenge the current price. Meanwhile, the production cut in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the superimposed supply effect of the north - western and south - western regions will gradually appear. There is also a large potential for production capacity release [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - On the demand side, in the organic silicon sector, the spot price of organic silicon has risen, the production profit of enterprises has slightly declined, the operating rate of enterprises has increased, which supports industrial silicon. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are currently reducing production, the industry is operating at a reduced load, and the downstream photovoltaic industry is "anti - involution", with a significant decline in demand. Although the output increased slightly last week, the increase is limited. It is expected that the merger and reorganization of production capacity will intensify, and the potential production capacity will be gradually released in August, with a slight increase in the demand for industrial silicon. In the aluminum alloy sector, enterprises mainly replenish inventory as needed, inventory continues to grow, prices are falling, and they are in a passive de - stocking state, which is difficult to drive the demand for industrial silicon. Overall, the total demand for industrial silicon from the three major downstream industries continues to slow down [2]

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices have declined recently, with fluctuations in the market and limited improvement in the fundamentals despite a slight decrease in inventory [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon fluctuated from 8750 CNY/ton to 8700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% [1]. - The national average price is 9196 CNY/ton, down by 182 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific grades show the following prices: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton (down 438 CNY/ton), 441 at 9174 CNY/ton (down 178 CNY/ton), and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton (down 97 CNY/ton) [1]. - FOB prices decreased by 30 USD/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply side: Northern production remains stable with a slight increase in large factory operations, while southern regions are experiencing increased output due to the rainy season and new capacity [1]. - Demand side: There is a slight increase in demand for industrial silicon from downstream sectors, including organic silicon monomer plants and polysilicon production lines [1]. - Overall, the three major downstream sectors show a slight increase in demand for industrial silicon [1]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment has cooled, leading to price declines despite some inventory reduction [1]. - The overall industry supply-demand balance is stable, but there is pressure on inventory consumption, making price increases difficult [2].

Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon spot prices have declined recently, with fluctuations in the market and limited improvement in the fundamentals, leading to a cooling market sentiment and price drop [1][2]. Price Trends - The main contract price for industrial silicon dropped from 8750 CNY/ton to 8700 CNY/ton, a decrease of 0.57% during the week of July 31 to August 6, 2025. The national average price is 9196 CNY/ton, down by 182 CNY/ton [1]. - Specific grades of industrial silicon saw the following prices: 553 at 8764 CNY/ton (down 438 CNY/ton), 441 at 9174 CNY/ton (down 178 CNY/ton), and 421 at 9875 CNY/ton (down 97 CNY/ton) [1][3]. - The FOB price decreased by 30 USD/ton [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - On the supply side, production in northern regions remains stable, with a slight increase in large factory operations. Southern regions are experiencing increased output due to the rainy season and new capacity coming online [1]. - Demand from downstream sectors is slightly increasing, with higher operating rates in organic silicon monomer plants and some recovery plans in multi-crystalline silicon production lines. Overall, the demand from the three major downstream sectors for industrial silicon is expected to increase slightly [1][2]. Market Sentiment - Despite the slight increase in demand, the overall market sentiment is cooling, and the industry is facing pressure on inventory consumption, making price increases difficult. The market is expected to remain in a range-bound fluctuation [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, leading to an increase in expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. - Domestic macro: In the context of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July is to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities. In the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic is strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Changes - **Equity Index Futures**: The CSI 300 futures closed at 4029.6, down 0.68% daily, 2.10% weekly, 0.68% monthly, up 7.77% quarterly, and 2.77% year - to - date. The Shanghai 50 futures and the CSI 500 futures also showed different degrees of decline, while the CSI 1000 futures rose 0.07% daily [3]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures had different price changes, with the 10 - year treasury bond futures down 0.05% daily [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US dollar index was at 98.69, down 1.36% daily, 1.04% weekly. The US dollar intermediate price had a 2 - pip daily increase [3]. - **Interest Rates**: The 10 - year Chinese government bond yield was 1.71, up 0.2 bp daily. The 10 - year US government bond yield was 4.23, down 14 bp daily [3]. - **Commodities**: In the domestic commodity market, coal rose 1.93% daily, while industrial silicon fell 2.97% daily. In the overseas commodity market, NYMEX WTI crude oil was at 67.26, down 3.03% daily [3]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas Macro**: In the first half of the week, market bets on Fed rate cuts declined due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, and hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting. However, the July non - farm payrolls were below expectations, increasing market concerns about the US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Key events to watch include US inflation data in August, the Jackson Hole meeting, and subsequent non - farm payrolls [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: After the Politburo meeting in July, the overall policy tone focuses on using existing policies more effectively, with relatively few incremental policies. The composite PMI in July remains above the critical point, and attention should be paid to the progress of economic negotiations between the US and other economies [5]. 3.3 Asset Views - **Domestic Assets**: There are mainly structural opportunities. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter [5]. - **Overseas Assets**: Market concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing expectations for Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is favorable for gold. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets [5]. 3.4 Sector and Variety Analysis - **Financial Sector**: Stock index futures are expected to rise in a volatile manner, stock index options will be volatile, and treasury bond futures will also be in a volatile state [6]. - **Precious Metals Sector**: Gold and silver are in a short - term adjustment phase and are expected to be volatile [6]. - **Shipping Sector**: The container shipping to Europe route is in a state of game between peak - season expectations and price - rise implementation, and is expected to be volatile [6]. - **Black Building Materials Sector**: Most varieties such as steel, iron ore, and coke are expected to be volatile, with their fundamentals and market sentiments changing [6]. - **Non - ferrous and New Materials Sector**: Most non - ferrous metal varieties are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as supply disturbances and policy expectations [6]. - **Energy and Chemical Sector**: Crude oil supply is increasing, and domestic chemical products are expected to benefit from stable - growth expectations. Most varieties are expected to be volatile, while asphalt and high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are expected to decline [8]. - **Agricultural Sector**: Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, affected by factors such as weather, trade policies, and supply - demand relationships [8].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a daily morning observation of non - ferrous metals and precious metals on August 6, 2025, covering multiple metal sectors such as precious metals, copper, aluminum, etc. [1][2] Group 2: Precious Metals Market Review - London gold had a V - shaped reversal, closing up 0.22% at $3380.86 per ounce; London silver rose for the third consecutive day, closing up 1.06% at $37.81 per ounce. Affected by the overseas market, Shanghai gold's main contract closed up 0.01% at 784.4 yuan per gram, and Shanghai silver's main contract closed up 1.15% at 9178 yuan per kilogram. The US dollar index oscillated within a range and almost closed flat at 98.727. The 10 - year US Treasury yield temporarily stopped falling at 4.2021%. The RMB against the US dollar fell slightly, closing down 0.05% at 7.1834. [2] Important Information - Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs in the next week, with drug tariffs up to 250%. He will significantly increase tariffs on India within 24 hours and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if it fails to fulfill its investment obligations to the US. The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 and the previous value of 50.8. The final value of the US 7 - month S&P Global Services PMI was 55.7, higher than the expected 55.2 and the previous value of 55.2. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 7.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 92.4%. [2] Logic Analysis - Due to the unexpectedly poor US non - farm payrolls data last week, the "strong reality" of the US economy's resilience has loosened. The newly released ISM and S&P services PMI point in different directions, and the precious metals market mainly trades towards weak expectations. [2] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, existing long positions can be considered to be held. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, buy deep out - of - the - money call options on dips. [4] Group 3: Copper Market Review - Last night, the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78070 yuan per ton, down 0.52%, and the Shanghai copper index reduced its positions by 1167 lots to 470,000 lots. The LME closed at $9634.5 per ton, down 0.65%. The LME inventory decreased by 14,275 tons to 153,000 tons, and the COMEX inventory increased by 1010 tons to 262,000 tons. [6] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was 50.1, lower than expected. Trump will announce drug and chip tariffs, increase tariffs on India, and impose a 35% tariff on the EU if necessary. Chile's copper exports in July were 179,996 tons, and copper ore and concentrate exports were 1,396,851 tons, with 40,943 tons of copper and 997,013 tons of copper ore and concentrate exported to China. [6] Logic Analysis - The supply of copper mines is disturbed, and the production of smelters at home and abroad is differentiated. The inventory of non - US regions is expected to increase, and the demand is in the off - season. [7][9] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term supply is expected to increase, and the price will oscillate weakly. Pay attention to the support at 77,000 - 78,000 yuan per ton. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [10] Group 4: Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2509 contract fell 3 yuan to 3207 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions had different changes, with the northern comprehensive spot price of alumina by Aladdin down 10 yuan to 3270 yuan, and the national weighted index down 10.6 yuan to 3289.3 yuan. [11] Important Information - The full - cost of the alumina industry in July was 2905 yuan per ton, down 66 yuan from the previous month, with a profit of about 275 yuan per ton. A mine's memorandum was revoked, and its shipping terminal was suspended. India traded 30,000 tons of alumina at an FOB price of $377.25 per ton. The alumina warehouse receipts on the SHFE increased by 6627 tons to 13,242 tons on August 5. The national alumina production capacity was 113.02 million tons, with an operating capacity of 94.75 million tons, a decrease of 200,000 tons from last week, and an operating rate of 83.8%. [12][13][15] Logic Analysis - The theoretical supply - demand surplus of alumina has significantly expanded, the spot price is stable, and the inventory is increasing. Before the significant increase in warehouse receipts, the alumina price has certain support in the range of 3000 - 3100 yuan. [16] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the alumina price will oscillate above 3000 - 3100 yuan in the short term. Pay attention to the low - warehouse - receipt risk when entering the delivery month. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [16] Group 5: Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract rose 30 yuan to 20,525 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of aluminum ingots in East China, South China, and Central China all increased. [18][20] Important Information - The White House issued an executive order to reset "reciprocal tariffs" on some countries, which will take effect on August 7. On August 5, the main market electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.2 tons, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2362 tons to 44,287 tons. [20] Trading Logic - The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is strengthening. The LME aluminum inventory is increasing slightly, and the domestic market is gradually returning to fundamentals. The aluminum ingot social inventory is expected to continue to accumulate, and pay attention to the peak inventory in the off - season and the opportunity of the spread expansion. [20] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the aluminum price will oscillate narrowly in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spread between the first - and third - month contracts of Shanghai aluminum futures is between 40 - 70. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [21] Group 6: Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 30 yuan to 19,955 yuan per ton. On August 5, the spot prices of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots in different regions all increased. [23] Important Information - As of July 31, the weekly production of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 0.19 million tons to 13.98 million tons, and the total inventory increased by 0.27 million tons to 13.51 million tons. Some new projects in the new energy vehicle lightweight parts manufacturing are planned to be put into production. In July, the ADC12 industry's theoretical profit was 63 yuan per ton, and the profit per ton increased by 104 yuan compared with the previous month. [24][25] Trading Logic - The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, the import volume is low, the downstream demand is weak, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate with the aluminum price. [26] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate with the aluminum price. For the arbitrage strategy, consider a positive spread arbitrage when the spot price is at a discount of more than 300 yuan to the futures price. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [27] Group 7: Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market fell 0.15% to $2750 per ton, and the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.07% to 22,300 yuan per ton. The Shanghai zinc index increased its positions by 2137 lots to 207,800 lots. The spot price in Shanghai was between 22,280 - 22,375 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing sentiment was poor. [30] Important Information - Western Mining's zinc production in the first half of 2025 was 62,875 tons, up 18.61% year - on - year, and Glencore's zinc production in the second quarter of 2025 was 251,600 tons, up 19% year - on - year. Glencore adjusted its 2025 zinc production guidance to 940,000 - 980,000 tons. [30][31] Logic Analysis - The supply of zinc concentrates is sufficient, the smelter production is active, and the consumption is in the off - season with obvious inventory accumulation. [32] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term zinc price may oscillate. Consider shorting on rallies due to the increasing supply and off - season consumption. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [33] Group 8: Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market rose 0.61% to $1975.5 per ton, and the Shanghai lead 2509 contract rose 0.24% to 16,755 yuan per ton. The Shanghai lead index reduced its positions by 283 lots to 112,500 lots. The SMM1 lead price fell 100 yuan per ton, and the downstream purchasing was mainly for rigid demand. [35] Important Information - Some regenerated lead smelting enterprises in East and Central China may adjust their scrap battery purchase prices if the lead price continues to weaken. The environmental protection work in Anhui may affect local regenerated lead smelting enterprises. [35][36] Logic Analysis - The supply of lead concentrates is tight, the price of lead - containing waste is high, the supply of primary lead is increasing, the production of regenerated lead is in a loss but still has an increment, and the downstream lead - battery enterprise purchasing has improved. [37] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the lead price may maintain a low - level oscillation. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, stay on the sidelines. [42] Group 9: Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price fell to $15,055 per ton, and the LME nickel inventory increased by 2172 tons to 211,254 tons. The Shanghai nickel main contract NI2509 fell to 120,500 yuan per ton. The spot premiums of different nickel products changed. [40] Important Information - The Indonesian government is promoting the use of nickel batteries, and the nickel benchmark price in Indonesia has increased slightly. The US Fed may cut interest rates. [40][41] Logic Analysis - The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and the market's trading of the US economic recession affect the nickel price. The nickel market has an oversupply expectation, and the inventory is slowly increasing. [43] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money put options. [44] Group 10: Stainless Steel Market Review - The stainless steel main contract SS2509 fell to 12,935 yuan per ton, and the index increased its positions by 3063 lots. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel are given. [46] Important Information - Zimbabwe plans to ban chromium ore exports, and the chromium ore inventory in China has reached a record high. [47] Logic Analysis - The market trades the US economic recession expectation. The cost of stainless steel has increased slightly, the production is expected to increase in August, the terminal demand is in the off - season, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. [48] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate in a wide range in the short term. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. [48][49] Group 11: Tin Market Review - The Shanghai tin 2509 contract closed at 266,950 yuan per ton, up 0.3%. The Shanghai tin inventory decreased by 1105 lots to 47,716 lots. The spot price of tin ingots in Shanghai Metal Market increased, and the actual demand is still weak. [50] Important Information - The US 7 - month ISM non - manufacturing index was lower than expected, and Trump announced tariff plans. [50][51] Logic Analysis - The market expects the Fed to cut interest rates in September, which boosts the tin price. The LME inventory is low, the supply of tin mines is tight, and the demand in the photovoltaic and electronics industries is weak. [51] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, the short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, and the tin price will fluctuate with macro - sentiment. [52] Group 12: Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures rose due to the impact of coking coal, and the main contract closed at 8450 yuan per ton. The spot price of industrial silicon generally fell by 100 - 250 yuan per ton. [55] Important Information - Hesheng Silicon Industry will reduce industrial silicon production capacity. The production of DMC and polysilicon is expected to increase in August. [55] Comprehensive Analysis - If leading manufacturers resume production in August, there will be a slight surplus of industrial silicon; otherwise, there may be a supply - demand gap of 20,000 - 30,000 tons. The social inventory is high, and the spot is not tight. [55][56] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it may rise due to sentiment in the short term but will be weak after the sentiment fades. For the options strategy, there is no recommendation. For the arbitrage strategy, conduct a reverse spread arbitrage on the 11th and 12th contracts. [56] Group 13: Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures rose due to the increase in coking coal prices, and the main contract closed at 50,330 yuan per ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon are given. [58] Important Information - The MIIT issued a notice on energy - saving inspections for the polysilicon industry. [58] Comprehensive Analysis - The polysilicon production is expected to increase in August, and there may be a surplus of 15,000 - 20,000 tons. The expectation of polysilicon capacity integration is strengthening, and the expected futures price after integration is 60,000 - 65,000 yuan per ton. [58] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, hold long positions. For the arbitrage strategy, hold long positions in polysilicon and short positions in industrial silicon for the long term, and close the reverse spread arbitrage on the far - month polysilicon contracts. [59] Group 14: Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract of lithium carbonate fell to 67,840 yuan per ton, and the index reduced its positions by 11,764 lots. The Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts increased by 1840 tons to 14,443 tons. The spot prices of electric and industrial lithium carbonate decreased. [60] Important Information - Chile's lithium exports in July were 23,824 tons, with 20,930 tons of lithium carbonate, and 13,633 tons were exported to China. The new - energy vehicle wholesale forecast for 2025 was slightly adjusted. The production of some lithium mines is normal. Some new lithium carbonate production projects have been put into operation. [60][61] Logic Analysis - The supply - side news is bearish, the long - position funds are leaving, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. [62] Trading Strategy - For the unilateral strategy, it will oscillate downward to find support. For the arbitrage strategy, stay on the sidelines. For the options strategy, sell out - of - the - money call options. [65]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Neutral [2] - Polysilicon: Short - term interval operation [6] 2. Core Views - The industrial silicon market is mainly affected by supply and demand changes and potential industry measures. The polysilicon market is mainly driven by policies, with large short - term fluctuations and suitable for mid - to long - term bottom - up long positions [2][6] 3. Market Analysis Industrial Silicon - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price fluctuated and rose. The main contract 2509 opened at 8345 yuan/ton and closed at 8490 yuan/ton, up 1.37% from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2509 was 181,168 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts was 50,806 lots, an increase of 494 lots from the previous day [1] - **Spot**: The spot price of industrial silicon declined. For example, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9100 - 9400 (-200) yuan/ton, and the price of 421 silicon was 9500 - 9900 (-200) yuan/ton [1] - **Consumption**: The price of silicone DMC was stable at 12100 - 12700 yuan/ton. The supply of silicone gradually recovered, but the demand was limited due to sufficient raw material inventory of downstream enterprises [1] Polysilicon - **Futures**: On August 5, 2025, the main contract 2509 of polysilicon futures rose significantly, opening at 48615 yuan/ton and closing at 50330 yuan/ton, up 3.88% from the previous day. The position of the main contract reached 127,587 lots, and the trading volume was 433,130 lots [3] - **Spot**: The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The price of N - type material was 45.00 - 49.00 yuan/kg, and the price of n - type granular silicon was 43.00 - 46.00 yuan/kg [3] - **Inventory and Production**: Polysilicon inventory decreased by 5.76% month - on - month to 22.90, while silicon wafer inventory increased by 1.57% month - on - month to 18.15GW. Polysilicon weekly production increased by 3.92% to 26,500 tons, and silicon wafer production decreased by 1.79% to 11.00GW [3] Silicon Wafer, Battery, and Component - **Silicon Wafer**: The prices of domestic N - type silicon wafers remained unchanged. The production plan of silicon wafer enterprises was inconsistent, and the production of leading professional silicon wafer enterprises might increase [5] - **Battery**: The prices of various types of battery cells remained stable. The global production schedule of Chinese enterprises in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month to 57 - 58GW [5] - **Component**: The mainstream transaction prices of various types of components remained unchanged [5] 4. Strategy Industrial Silicon - The industrial fundamentals have little change. The supply has a certain increase, the consumption increases month - on - month in August, and the inventory decreases slightly, but the overall inventory pressure is still large. It is expected that the short - term disk will fluctuate widely [2] Polysilicon - The polysilicon disk is mainly affected by policies. In the short term, it is recommended to operate within the interval. In the mid - to long - term, it is suitable to lay out long positions at low prices [6]

Report Information - Report Date: August 6, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [3] Market Performance - Industrial silicon futures prices continued to be weak. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, with a gain of 1.37%. The trading volume was 311,623 lots, and the open interest was 181,168 lots, with a net increase of 13,572 lots [4] - Industrial silicon spot prices began to decline. The price of Inner Mongolia 553 was 8,700 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 553 was 8,750 yuan/ton. The price of Inner Mongolia 421 was 9,600 yuan/ton, that of Xinjiang 421 was 9,400 yuan/ton, and that of Sichuan 421 was 9,650 yuan/ton [4] Future Outlook - The resumption of production in the southwest offset the production cuts of large factories in Xinjiang. The output in July increased to 330,000 tons compared with the forecast. The operating rate of polysilicon increased slightly, and the production increase capacity of organic silicon was limited in the short term. The monthly supply and demand of industrial silicon remained in a loose pattern [4] - Market sentiment cooled down, and the trends of previous varieties in the same sector had diverged. Industrial silicon lacked the implementation of clear stimulus policies. The spot price rose and then fell again. After the futures entered the daily short - term trend, it stopped falling in the short term. The strengthening of coking coal and coke prices on the cost side drove a rebound, but the rebound space of futures was limited due to the lack of major drivers [4] Market News - On August 5, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,806 lots, with a net increase of 494 lots compared with the previous trading day [5] - Xingfa Group stated that the actual production capacity of its DMC was about 300,000 tons/year. The increase in DMC price had a positive impact on the company's organic silicon business segment. If only considering the production capacity factor, for every 1,000 yuan/ton increase in the organic silicon price, it was expected to increase the company's annual profit by about 3 billion yuan [5]