Group 1 - The price of cup rubber is 51.00 THB/kg, while latex is at 54.70 THB/kg, indicating slight fluctuations in the market [1] - The price of natural rubber in China varies, with standard rubber from Vietnam and Hainan both priced at 15,600 CNY/ton, while other grades show slight variations [2] - The futures market for natural rubber closed at 15,780.00 CNY/ton on December 26, with a daily increase of 0.70% and a trading volume of 340,531 contracts [2] Group 2 - Thailand exported 4 million tons of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of 4.6%, with exports to China reaching 2.518 million tons, up 24% [3] - As of mid-December, China's total social inventory of natural rubber reached 1.152 million tons, an increase of 2.9% month-on-month, with dark rubber inventory at 748,000 tons and light rubber at 404,000 tons [3] Group 3 - According to research from Shenwan Hongyuan Futures, overseas production areas are gradually increasing supply, while domestic inventories in Qingdao are rising, indicating ongoing supply pressure [4] - The domestic production areas are transitioning to a non-tapping season, which may reduce supply elasticity in the short term, while raw rubber prices remain relatively firm [4] - Demand for all-steel tires is stable, suggesting a strong outlook for rubber prices in the short term [4]

Core Viewpoint - Synthetic rubber futures experienced a rapid increase, with the main contract reaching a peak of 11,725.0 yuan, closing at 11,635.0 yuan, reflecting a rise of 2.69% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Southwest Futures indicates that synthetic rubber is expected to operate in a volatile manner, supported by cost and demand factors, while future supply and demand recovery will be crucial [1] - The price of raw material butadiene has risen unexpectedly, providing strong cost support for synthetic rubber [1] - The production capacity utilization rate for polybutadiene rubber has increased to 76.26%, indicating ample supply [1] Group 2: Demand and Inventory - Downstream tire manufacturers have seen a slight decrease in operating rates, with high finished product inventories leading to cautious procurement, primarily driven by essential demand [1] - Mainstream warehouse inventories have decreased by 3.8% month-on-month, but social inventories continue to accumulate, with stable futures warehouse receipts [1] - The br2602 contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 and 11,700 yuan, with high supply levels and seasonal demand pressures affecting production and inventory levels [2]

摘要：【图】2025年8月中国合成橡胶产量数据分析 2025年8月合成橡胶产量统计： 合成橡胶产量：74.0 万吨 同比增长：7.4% 增速较上一年同期变化：高8.8个百分点 据统计，2025年8月我国规模以上工业企业合成橡胶产量与上年同期相比增长了7.4%，达74.0万吨，增 速较上一年同期高8.8个百分点。 详见下图： 图1：中国合成橡胶产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-8月合成橡胶产量统计： 合成橡胶产量：584.8 万吨 同比增长：10.9% 增速较上一年同期变化：高9.2个百分点 据统计，2025年1－8月，我国规模以上工业企业合成橡胶产量与上年同期相比增长了10.9%，达584.8万 吨，增速较上一年同期高9.2个百分点，继续保持增长。详见下图： 图2：中国合成橡胶产量分月（累计值）统计图 注：从2011年起，规模以上工业企业起点标准由原来的年主营业务收入500万元提高到年主营业务收入 2000万元。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油未来发展趋势预测 化工现状及发展前景 日化发展前景趋势分析 润滑油的现状和发展趋势 汽油行业现状与发展趋势 柴油市场现状及前景分析 橡胶市场调 ...

Core Insights - The national production material market prices remained stable from December 15 to 21, showing little change compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Fuel Prices - Wholesale prices for refined oil experienced slight declines, with 0 diesel, 95 gasoline, and 92 gasoline decreasing by 0.6%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] Group 2: Coal Prices - Coal prices saw minor reductions, with coking coal, anthracite, and thermal coal priced at 1055 yuan, 1159 yuan, and 781 yuan per ton, reflecting decreases of 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.3% respectively [2] Group 3: Non-Ferrous Metals - Prices for non-ferrous metals predominantly declined, with aluminum and copper decreasing by 0.4% and 0.1%, while zinc saw a slight increase of 0.1% [3] Group 4: Fertilizer and Steel Prices - Fertilizer prices showed slight fluctuations, with compound fertilizer increasing by 0.2% and urea decreasing by 0.1% [4] - Steel prices remained largely unchanged, with rebar, high-speed wire, and hot-rolled strip priced at 3358 yuan, 3547 yuan, and 3508 yuan per ton, all increasing by 0.1%, while ordinary plates, welded pipes, and channel steel decreased by 0.1% [4] Group 5: Basic Chemical Raw Materials - Basic chemical raw material prices experienced minor fluctuations, with sulfuric acid and methanol increasing by 2.9% and 0.1%, while polypropylene and soda ash decreased by 1.2% and 0.5% respectively [4] Group 6: Rubber Prices - Rubber prices saw slight increases, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil market is expected to remain in a state of surplus in 2026, with prices likely to continue oscillating during the holiday period [1]. - The fuel oil market shows a slight strengthening in the low - sulfur segment and some support in the high - sulfur segment. Short - term prices of FU and LU are likely to fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may remain stable and rise [1][3]. - The asphalt price is supported by cost but has weak terminal demand. The downward price space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices and be relatively stronger than crude oil and fuel oil [3]. - In the polyester market, the upstream PX and TA have positive expectations for the 2026 supply - demand pattern, but the demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited. The ethylene glycol price may face pressure due to high domestic production and potential over - supply [3][5]. - The rubber price is expected to oscillate due to factors such as the end of the domestic production season, increased overseas supply, and weak downstream demand [5]. - The methanol price is likely to maintain bottom - level oscillations due to factors such as the decline in Iranian supply and the weakening of MTO demand [7]. - The polyolefin market has weak fundamental drivers and large inventory transfer pressure, and is expected to show an oscillating performance [7]. - The PVC price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations due to high - level supply oscillations and weak domestic demand [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Viewpoints - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI and Brent crude oil futures were closed for the Christmas holiday. SC2602 closed at 444.7 yuan/barrel, up 1.7 yuan/barrel or 0.38%. Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. The global oil market is balanced, and the OPEC+ mechanism is effective. ING believes there will be an oil surplus in 2026, and the oil price is expected to oscillate during the holiday [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 rose 0.61% to 2489 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.33% to 3016 yuan/ton. As of December 24, the Fujeirah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) week - on - week. The low - sulfur market strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market had some support. The arrival volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from the Western market may decline in December, and the supply in Asia may be sufficient from January to February. The high - sulfur market has good downstream demand support. Short - term prices may fluctuate with oil prices, and the crack spread may rise [1][3]. - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 rose 0.17% to 2995 yuan/ton. The domestic asphalt production in January 2026 is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 7.3% month - on - month and 12.1% year - on - year. The weekly shipment increased by 15.4%, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.6% month - on - month but increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The cost is supported due to the tense US - Venezuela relationship, but the terminal demand is weak. The price downward space is limited, and it may fluctuate with oil prices [3]. - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 5152 yuan/ton, up 1.14%; EG2605 closed at 3818 yuan/ton, unchanged. The PX futures contract 603 closed at 7358 yuan/ton, up 0.88%. The polyester production and sales in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are weak. A 3.6 - million - ton PTA plant in East China reduced its load, and a 2.2 - million - ton plant restarted. The ethylene glycol start - up load in mainland China is 72.15% (up 0.18% week - on - week), and the polyester load is around 89.7%. The demand is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [3][5]. - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 80 yuan/ton to 15730 yuan/ton, and the NR contract rose 80 yuan/ton to 12695 yuan/ton, while the butadiene rubber BR contract fell 110 yuan/ton to 11285 yuan/ton. Thailand's natural rubber and mixed rubber exports increased by 4.6% year - on - year in the first 11 months, and exports to China increased by 24%. The rubber price followed the rise of the macro - commodity sentiment. The domestic production season ended, overseas supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate [5]. - **Methanol**: On Thursday, the Taicang spot price was 2145 yuan/ton. Domestic maintenance devices are running stably, and the production is oscillating at a high level. Iranian supply remains low. The Ningbo Fude device is under maintenance, and the MTO device start - up rate in East China has decreased. The inventory may fluctuate, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [7]. - **Polyolefins**: On Thursday, the East China拉丝 price was 6050 - 6250 yuan/ton. The production profit of various types of polyolefins is negative. The supply will remain at a high level, and the downstream orders and start - up rate are weakening. The market is expected to oscillate [7]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Thursday, the East China PVC market held firm, the North China market declined slightly, and the South China market had individual price increases. Some plants plan to reduce their loads this week, and the production is expected to decline slightly. The domestic real - estate construction will slow down, and the demand for pipes and profiles will also decline. The price is expected to approach bottom - level oscillations [8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy - chemical varieties, including spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, price changes, and the position of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said that Russia's oil and condensate production in 2025 was about the same as in 2024, around 516 million tons or 10.32 million barrels per day. Russia will continue to work within the OPEC+ framework, and the global oil market is balanced [11]. - US Coast Guard is unable to seize an oil tanker related to Venezuela due to a shortage of professional staff and will wait for more personnel to arrive [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, and others [13][14][15][16][18][19][21][22][23][24][26][28]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: The report shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy - chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, and others [32][35][36][38][40][42]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spread**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy - chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, and other contracts [44][45][46][47][50][51][53][54][55][56][57][58][59][60]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the spread and ratio charts of different varieties of energy - chemical products, such as crude oil internal and external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63][64][65]. - **4.5 Production Profit**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [68][69]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The research team includes members such as Zhong Meiyan (Assistant Director and Energy - Chemical Director), Du Bingqin (Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, and Shipping Analyst), Di Yilin (Natural Rubber/Polyester Analyst), and Peng Haibo (Methanol/Propylene/Pure Benzene, PE/PP/PVC Analyst), with their respective educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences introduced [73][74][75][76].

化工日报 | 2025-12-26 下游轮胎开工率涨跌互现，总体表现一般 市场要闻与数据 期货方面，昨日收盘RU主力合约15730元/吨，较前一日变动+80元/吨；NR主力合约12695元/吨，较前一日变动+80 元/吨；BR主力合约11285元/吨，较前一日变动-110元/吨。 现货方面，云南产全乳胶上海市场价格15300元/吨，较前一日变动+50元/吨。青岛保税区泰混14800元/吨，较前一 日变动+20元/吨。青岛保税区泰国20号标胶1880美元/吨，较前一日变动+15美元/吨。青岛保税区印尼20号标胶1805 美元/吨，较前一日变动+20美元/吨。中石油齐鲁石化BR9000出厂价格11100元/吨，较前一日变动+0元/吨。浙江传 化BR9000市场价11100元/吨，较前一日变动+150元/吨。 市场资讯 2025年11月中国天然橡胶（含技术分类、胶乳、烟胶片、初级形状、混合胶、复合胶）进口量64.36万吨，环比增 加25.98%，同比增加14.69%，2025年1-11月累计进口数量587.16万吨，累计同比增加16.98%。 ANRPC最新发布的2025年11月报告预测，11月全球天胶产量料降2. ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce has initiated a final review investigation on anti-dumping measures applicable to imported ethylene-propylene rubber from the US, South Korea, and the EU, while continuing to impose anti-dumping duties during the review period [1][2] Group 1: Anti-Dumping Measures - The Ministry of Commerce announced that anti-dumping duties will continue to be levied on imported ethylene-propylene rubber from the US, South Korea, and the EU according to the tax rates specified in the 2020 announcement during the review period [1] - The anti-dumping tax rates established in December 2020 were 214.9% to 222.0% for US companies, 12.5% to 24.5% for South Korean companies, and 14.7% to 31.7% for EU companies, with a validity period of five years [2] Group 2: Review Investigation Details - The final review investigation will assess whether terminating the anti-dumping measures on imported ethylene-propylene rubber from the US, South Korea, and the EU could lead to continued or renewed dumping and damage [1] - Stakeholders have 20 days from the announcement date to register with the Ministry of Commerce's Trade Relief Investigation Bureau to participate in the final review investigation [1]

Oil Market - WTI and Brent crude oil futures closed higher, with SC2602 at 444.7 CNY/barrel, up 1.7 CNY/barrel, a 0.38% increase [12] - Russia's oil and condensate production is expected to remain stable at approximately 516 million tons, or about 10.32 million barrels per day, for 2024 [12] - ING forecasts an oil surplus exceeding 2 million barrels per day by 2026 due to OPEC+ gradually lifting supply cuts [12] Fuel Oil - The main contract for fuel oil FU2603 rose by 0.61% to 2489 CNY/ton, while low-sulfur fuel oil LU2603 increased by 0.33% to 3016 CNY/ton [13] - Fujairah fuel oil inventory decreased by 2.247 million barrels (17.38%) to 10.681 million barrels [13] - The low-sulfur fuel oil market is expected to see a decline in imports from Western markets for the first time in three months, providing some support [13] Asphalt - The main contract for asphalt BU2602 increased by 0.17% to 2995 CNY/ton [14] - Domestic asphalt production is projected to be 2 million tons in January 2026, a decrease of 15.8 thousand tons (7.3%) month-on-month [14] - Despite strong cost support due to geopolitical tensions, weak terminal demand is hindering refinery shipments [14] Rubber - The main contract for rubber RU2605 rose by 80 CNY/ton to 15730 CNY/ton, while NR main contract also increased by 80 CNY/ton to 12695 CNY/ton [15] - Thailand's natural rubber exports totaled 4 million tons in the first 11 months, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [15] - Domestic rubber production is entering a cessation period, with expectations of continued raw material price declines [15] PX & PTA & MEG - TA605 closed at 5152 CNY/ton, up 1.14%, while PX futures closed at 7358 CNY/ton, up 0.88% [16] - The operating rate for ethylene glycol in mainland China is at 72.15%, a slight increase of 0.18% [16] - Demand is in a seasonal downturn, with limited price support expected for PX and TA [16] Methanol - Methanol prices in Taicang are at 2145 CNY/ton, with CFR China prices ranging from 246 to 250 USD/ton [17] - Domestic production remains stable at high levels, while Iranian supply is low [17] - The overall demand for methanol is expected to weaken, leading to price stability at the bottom [17] Polyolefins - Mainstream prices for polypropylene in East China are between 6050 and 6250 CNY/ton, with production margins negative across various production methods [18] - PE prices have decreased compared to last week, with HDPE at 7011 CNY/ton, down 177 CNY/ton [18] - Overall, the polyolefin market is expected to maintain a volatile performance due to weak fundamentals [18] PVC - PVC prices in East China are stable, with prices for calcium carbide method ranging from 4440 to 4580 CNY/ton [19] - Domestic real estate construction is expected to slow down, leading to a gradual decrease in demand for pipes and profiles [19] - The overall market is expected to remain weak, with prices stabilizing at the bottom [19] Urea - Urea futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1740 CNY/ton, a 0.46% increase [20] - The industry daily production is at 193,200 tons, with a slight increase of 130 tons [20] - Market expectations for January's pricing results and export policy changes are influencing price stability [20] Soda Ash - Soda ash futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1184 CNY/ton, a 0.51% increase [21] - Industry operating rates and production have decreased, while inventory levels are also declining [21] - The market is entering a phase of negotiation, with both supply and demand showing signs of decline [21] Glass - Glass futures prices are stable, with the main contract closing at 1047 CNY/ton, a 0.38% increase [22] - The average price of float glass in the domestic market is 1076 CNY/ton, showing a slight decrease [22] - The market is experiencing a balance of supply and demand, with limited driving forces for price movements [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current market trends and economic indicators, highlighting the mixed signals in various sectors, including precious metals, stock indices, and crude oil, while emphasizing the potential for policy support and market recovery in the near future [1][2][3][4]. Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged to a historical high, driven by lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data, which stands at 2.7% year-on-year, below the anticipated 3.1% [2][17]. - The overall downtrend in CPI provides room for interest rate cuts, supporting the long-term upward trend in precious metals due to factors like weakened dollar credit and central bank gold purchases [2][17]. Stock Indices - U.S. stock markets were closed, but previous trading saw an increase in stock indices, particularly in the defense and military sectors, with a total market turnover of 1.94 trillion yuan [3][10]. - The financing balance increased by 10.127 billion yuan, indicating a positive outlook for A-shares, supported by policy backing, capital influx, and industrial empowerment [3][10]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices saw a slight increase of 0.38%, with Saudi Arabia's average daily crude oil exports reaching a two-and-a-half-year high of 7.1 million barrels in October, up from 6.46 million barrels in September [4][13]. - Despite geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions on Russia, the overall trend for crude oil remains downward [4][13]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data showed a mixed picture, with an addition of 64,000 jobs, surpassing the expected 50,000, but the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% [2][17]. - The People's Bank of China is expected to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and reasonable price recovery [7][12]. Industry News - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange issued a notice to Sunflower regarding its asset acquisition plan, indicating ongoing corporate activities and market dynamics [8]. Shipping Index - The European shipping index showed fluctuations, with expectations for price stability as shipping companies prepare for increased demand ahead of the Lunar New Year [30].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The total inventory at Qingdao Port continues to accumulate, with both bonded and general trade warehouses showing inventory build - up, and the overall accumulation rate expanding. Overseas mixed rubber arrivals and warehousing are increasing, while downstream factories mainly consume their own inventory and have low replenishment willingness, resulting in lower - than - expected overall outbound shipments. In terms of demand, domestic tire enterprises arrange production flexibly this week, with some enterprises controlling production. The semi - steel tire enterprise operating rate rebounds slightly month - on - month, while the all - steel tire enterprise operating rate declines month - on - month, entering the seasonal off - season. The enterprise's overall shipment rhythm is slow, the finished product inventory rises, and under the pressure of production and sales, some enterprises have production suspension and limitation phenomena. The ru2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 15,400 - 16,000 in the short term, and the nr2602 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 12,400 - 13,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 15,730 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the closing price of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 12,695 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan. The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the 2 - 3 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 45 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan. The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 3,035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of the main Shanghai rubber contract is 182,848 lots, up 15,218 lots; the trading volume of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 50,850 lots, down 824 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 46,523 lots, down 9,002 lots; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 14,466 lots, down 2,748 lots. The exchange warehouse receipt of Shanghai rubber is 93,230 tons, up 1,900 tons; the exchange warehouse receipt of 20 - number rubber is 57,960 tons [2]. Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 15,100 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan; the price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 15,500 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The price of Thai standard STR20 is 1,865 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 1,860 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars. The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 14,780 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 14,730 yuan/ton, up 260 yuan. The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 11,300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 11,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan. The basis of Shanghai rubber is - 550 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan; the basis of non - standard products of the main Shanghai rubber contract is - 870 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 12,906 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the basis of the main 20 - number rubber contract is 291 yuan/ton, down 219 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The market reference price of Thai raw rubber smoke sheet is 58.22 Thai baht/kg, down 0.03 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber film is 55.39 Thai baht/kg, up 0.1 Thai baht. The market reference price of Thai raw rubber glue is 55.2 Thai baht/kg, down 0.5 Thai baht; the market reference price of Thai raw rubber cup lump is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, up 0.85 Thai baht. The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, up 13.6 US dollars; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is 2.4 US dollars/ton, down 51.4 US dollars. The monthly import volume of technically specified natural rubber is 168,800 tons, up 42,700 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 302,200 tons, up 45,800 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 63.13%, down 0.94 percentage points; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 71.44%, down 0.13 percentage points. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 41.91 days, up 1.33 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the period is 46.48 days, up 0.97 days. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 13.01 million pieces, up 590,000 pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 58.31 million pieces, up 6.63 million pieces [2]. Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 14.74%, up 2.44 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 15.18%, up 0.47 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 19.08%, up 0.54 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.08%, up 0.52 percentage points [2]. Industry News - In the first week of December 21 - 27, 2025, the rainfall in the main natural rubber producing areas in Southeast Asia increased slightly compared with the previous period. In the northern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly concentrated in southern Thailand, and the precipitation in most other areas is low, which has an increased impact on rubber tapping. In the southern hemisphere, the red areas are mainly distributed in western Indonesia and western Malaysia, and the rainfall in most other areas is at a medium level, which has a slightly weakened impact on rubber tapping. In November 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 1 million vehicles (wholesale, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of about 6% compared with October and a year - on - year increase of about 46% compared with 685,000 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to November this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck market exceeded 1 million vehicles, reaching 1.03 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26%. As of December 21, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 5.152 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 163,000 tons, an increase of 3.28%. The bonded area inventory was 796,000 tons, an increase of 2.72%; the general trade inventory was 4.356 million tons, an increase of 3.38%. The inbound rate of the Qingdao natural rubber sample bonded warehouse decreased by 3.82 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 1.65 percentage points; the inbound rate of the general trade warehouse increased by 1.02 percentage points, and the outbound rate decreased by 0.73 percentage points. As of December 25, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.36%, a month - on - month increase of 0.35 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 8.37 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of China's all - steel tire sample enterprises was 61.69%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.92 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.72 percentage points [2]. 4. Suggested Focus - The operating rate of Longzhong tire sample enterprises on Thursday [2]