Market Overview - A-shares experienced a mixed performance last week, with the Shanghai Composite Index declining by 1.30% to close at 3820.09 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14% and the ChiNext Index increased by 2.34% [2] - The market showed overall volatility in the first half of the week, but retreated towards the end as investors reacted to the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut [2][3] Federal Reserve Impact - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates by 25 basis points was in line with market expectations, leading to a temporary cooling of investor sentiment and risk appetite [3][4] - Despite short-term fluctuations, the long-term outlook remains positive for A-shares, with expectations of a stronger RMB and improved market risk appetite [3][4] Calendar Effects - Historical data indicates that A-shares typically exhibit a calendar effect around the National Day holiday, with a tendency for the market to perform poorly before the holiday and rebound afterward [5][6] - Over the past decade, indices such as the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 have shown over 60% probability of rising in the week following the National Day holiday [5] Sector Performance - Certain sectors, particularly technology-related industries such as computers, communications, and electronics, have a higher probability of rising in the five trading days following the holiday [6] - Financial sectors, including banks and non-bank financials, are also expected to perform well in the weeks following the holiday [6] Investment Strategy - The fourth quarter is anticipated to see a shift in investment styles, with a potential rotation from previously high-performing sectors to more defensive ones [7] - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors driven by economic recovery and industry trends, such as AI, innovative pharmaceuticals, new energy, and consumer sectors [7]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The non-bank financial sector is expected to benefit from a strategic allocation opportunity as the market remains active, with a trend of institutional and retail funds entering the market under a low interest rate environment [5] - The brokerage sector is experiencing high profitability and favorable valuation, indicating a high probability of success and returns [5] - The report highlights the potential for further expansion in the growth rate of brokerage firms' Q3 reports, driven by increased trading activity and margin financing [6] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial sector has shown a positive trend, with the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index reflecting a steady increase [2] Brokerage Sector Insights - Daily average stock fund transaction volume reached 2.99 trillion, up 8% month-on-month, with a cumulative daily average of 1.90 trillion for 2025, representing a 108% year-on-year increase [6] - Margin financing balance increased to 2.39 trillion, a 30% growth since the beginning of the year, accounting for 2.54% of the A-share market capitalization [6] - The report anticipates further improvement in investment banking, derivatives, and public fund businesses, with leading brokerages' return on equity (ROE) expected to expand [6] Insurance Sector Insights - China Ping An has increased its stake in China Pacific Insurance H shares, indicating strong investment strategies in high-dividend assets [7] - The insurance sector is expected to see improvements in ROE due to stable long-term interest rates and reduced liability costs, enhancing the attractiveness of H shares [7] Recommended and Beneficiary Stocks - Recommended stocks include Huatai Securities, Guosen Securities, Oriental Securities H, GF Securities, and China Pacific Insurance [8] - Beneficiary stocks include Tonghuashun, Jiufang Zhitu Holdings, and Xinhua Insurance [8]

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Stock Exchange will review the initial public offering (IPO) of Moore Threads on September 26, aiming to raise 8 billion yuan [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Moore Threads plans to list on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and seeks to raise 8 billion yuan through its IPO [1] - The company has direct and indirect stakes in various sectors, including electronics, computers, and communications [1] - Directly invested companies include Heertai (002402) and Yingqu Technology (002925), while indirectly invested companies include Honglida, Chuling Information (300250), and Changfei Fiber (601869) [1] Group 2: Market Performance - As of September 19, the average annual increase for the directly or indirectly invested companies is nearly 35%, with Changfei Fiber and Heertai exceeding 100% [1] - Financing data shows that as of September 18, these companies have seen an overall increase of nearly 30% in financing from investors this year [1] - Six companies, including Changfei Fiber, Heertai, and Ruifeng New Materials (300910), have received over 30% increase in financing from investors [1] Group 3: Investment Backers - In addition to A-share companies, notable investors in Moore Threads include Tencent, Lenovo, Sequoia Capital, and Houshu Capital [1]

Group 1: Market Insights from 2014-2015 Bull Market - The market style during the bull market from 2014 to 2015 showed a pattern of "rapid rise - retreat and bottoming," with the market crowding degree reaching a low of around 20% in early July 2025 and peaking at 30% in early September 2025 [1][10] - In the first phase of the 2014-2015 bull market, financial and stable styles led the gains, but during the consolidation phase, they significantly underperformed, while growth styles gradually took the lead [1][15] - The first phase saw non-bank financials, banks, construction decoration, steel, and real estate sectors leading the gains, but all fell to the lower ranks during the adjustment phase [2][18] Group 2: Current Economic Data - In August 2025, key economic indicators showed a marginal decline, with industrial value added growing by 5.2% year-on-year, below the expected 5.75% [3][27] - Social consumption in August increased by 3.4% year-on-year, also lower than the expected 3.82%, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3][36] - Fixed asset investment growth was only 0.5% in August, down from 1.6% in July, reflecting a continued decline in investment activity [3][43] Group 3: Industry Performance - In the current consolidation phase, industries such as communication, electronics, and power equipment have maintained strong performance, while the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a decline [2][23] - The coal sector has improved significantly, rising from 28th to 9th place in terms of performance during the adjustment phase, indicating a recovery in previously lagging industries [2][23] - The top-performing industries during the current phase include communication, electronics, and power equipment, with communication showing a gain of over 40% [2][23]

牛市震荡期前后的风格变化 ——策略周观点 [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 21 日 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 1 证券研究报告 信达证券股份有限公司 CINDA SECURITIES CO.,LTD 北京市西城区宣武门西大街甲 127 号金 隅大厦 B 座 邮编：100031 请阅读最后一页免责声明及信息披露 http://www.cindasc.com 2 策略研究 [策略周报 Table_ReportType] | ] [Table_A 樊继拓 uthor策略首席 分析师 | | --- | | 执业编号：S1500521060001 | | 邮 箱： fanjituo@cindasc.com | 李畅 策略分析师 执业编号：S1500523070001 邮 箱： lichang@cindasc.com [牛市震荡期前后的风格变化 Table_Title] [Table_ReportDate] 2025 年 9 月 21 日 核心结论：牛市期间阶段性换手率高点过后，往往会有横盘震荡，快牛 震荡时间短，慢牛震荡时间长。牛市中震 ...

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Technology remains the main driving force, with the recent volatility of high - flying technology blue - chips increasing significantly, and sectors such as solid - state batteries and energy storage taking over to gain strength. There is still room for the revaluation of Chinese assets, but its sustainability requires the support of macro - policies. It is recommended to enter the futures index market on pullbacks [3] - It is advisable to focus on allocating to technology - growth sectors with earnings certainty, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotation allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors like finance, securities, and consumption [6] Summary by Directory Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices were mainly volatile, with the ChiNext and STAR Market indices remaining strong. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 1.14%, the ChiNext Index rose by 2.34%, and the STAR 50 Index rose by 1.84%. In terms of global indices, the Nasdaq rose by 2.22%, the S&P 500 rose by 1.22%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 5.09% [15][19] - Among the Shenwan first - tier industries, sectors such as coal, power equipment, and electronics rose significantly, while sectors such as banks, non - ferrous metals, and non - bank finance led the decline [19] Liquidity - In August, the growth rate of social financing declined, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 narrowed. The difference in August was 2.8 percentage points, indicating an increase in the activation of funds. The policies to stabilize the market effectively boosted market confidence, which is beneficial for the short - term economic activity [17][18] - As of September 19, 2025, the capital interest rate (DR007) remained at a low level, and the net MLF investment in July was 40 billion yuan. The yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond was around 1.7%. The total social financing in August increased less year - on - year, with the new social financing in August at 2.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 483 billion yuan. The year - on - year growth rate of the social financing stock dropped to 8.8%, 0.2 percentage points lower than at the end of last month [20] Trading Data and Sentiment - The number of new accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.88 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, in May continued to drop to 1.555 million, in June slightly rose to 1.6464 million, in July was 1.9636 million, and in August was 2.6503 million [28] - The average daily trading volume of the two markets (MA5) rebounded above 2.5 trillion yuan, and the liquidity supported the index. The single - day trading volume within the week exceeded 3 trillion yuan, and the divergence intensified [28] Index Valuation - As of September 19, 2025, the latest PE of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.36, with a percentile of 81.41; the latest PE of the SSE 50 was 22.10, with a percentile of 84.90. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles of the CSI 1000, CSI 500, and SSE 204.5 were close to 50% [37] Index Industry Weights (as of 2025/6/30) - For the SSE 50, the weights of the banking, non - bank finance, and food and beverage sectors were relatively high, at 21.34%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively. The electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry [46][47] - For the CSI 300, the weights were relatively dispersed. The top three weighted industries were banking, non - bank finance, and electronics [46][47] - For the CSI 500, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - bank finance [47][51] - For the CSI 1000, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [47][51] Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - The United States is about to enter another interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in September. According to CME data, as of September 18, the probability of another interest - rate cut by the Fed in October is nearly 80%, and there are still two expected cuts within the year [52] - In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March set the economic growth target at 5%, the CPI increase at around 2%. A moderately loose monetary policy was implemented, with timely reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to ensure sufficient bond liquidity. A more proactive fiscal policy was implemented, with a planned deficit ratio of around 4% and the issuance of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan [53] - At the State Council Information Office press conference on May 7, 2025, the reserve - requirement ratio was cut by 0.5 percentage points, the policy interest rate was lowered by 0.1 percentage points from 1.56% to 1.4%, and the provident - fund interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points. A 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care was established, and support was provided for Central Huijin to play the role of a "stabilization fund" [53]

Group 1 - The financing trend around the National Day holiday typically shows a pattern of "contraction before the holiday and explosion after" [1][5][12] - Historical data indicates that the A-share market generally experiences a calendar effect, with a tendency for major indices to rebound after the holiday [5][14][22] - The probability of major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 rising after the National Day holiday exceeds 60% based on the past decade [5][14][22] Group 2 - Key sectors that are expected to perform well post-holiday include computer, communication, and electronics, with banks, non-bank financials, and automobiles also showing strong performance in the following weeks [5][18][21] - The financing balance has shown a significant increase, with a net inflow of 558.3 billion yuan since July, indicating that financing has become a major driving force for market growth [7][9][28] - The current financing balance reached 2.39 trillion yuan, which is above historical highs, although it still represents only 2.54% of the A-share market's circulating value [9][10][28] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut of 25 basis points is part of a preventive easing strategy, which historically leads to higher probabilities of A-share and Hong Kong stock market gains [6][25][26] - The report suggests a continued focus on growth-oriented sectors, particularly in solid-state batteries, AI computing, humanoid robots, and commercial aerospace [1][25][28]

Market Overview - Global liquidity easing expectations have risen, boosting risk appetite and leading technology growth to drive global market performance [1] - Major stock indices have generally risen, with US indices reaching historical highs; the Nasdaq increased by 2.21%, S&P 500 by 1.22%, and Dow Jones by 1.05% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a significant rebound in the technology sector, with the Hang Seng Technology Index rising by 5.09%, marking the largest weekly gain of the year [1] A-share Market Dynamics - The A-share market displayed a clear "growth strong, cycle weak" characteristic, with funds continuously flowing into growth sectors [2] - The ChiNext Index rose by 2.34%, and the STAR 50 Index increased by 1.84%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [2] - The trading volume in the Shenzhen market was higher than in the Shanghai market, indicating concentrated capital inflow into growth tracks [2] Sector Performance - In the A-share market, the coal sector led gains with a rise of 3.51%, followed by power equipment, electronics, and automotive sectors, each exceeding 2.9% [2] - The financial sector faced pressure, with banks, non-ferrous metals, and non-bank financials declining over 3.5% [2] - In the concept sectors, photolithography machines, optical modules, semiconductor equipment, and automotive parts saw index increases exceeding 5% [3] Commodity Market Trends - The commodity market exhibited a "strong energy, weak metals" pattern, with iron ore rising by 1.13% and INE crude oil increasing by 1.55% [3] - Precious metals faced pressure, with SHFE gold declining by 0.35% due to a stronger dollar and rising real interest rates [3] - Industrial metals generally weakened, with SHFE copper and INE international copper dropping by 0.93% and 1.16%, respectively [3] Policy and Economic Signals - Domestic and international signals of easing have been released, with the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time this year [3] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 600 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain reasonable liquidity [3] - The joint issuance of the "Automobile Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan" by eight departments aims to promote the development of smart connected vehicles [3]

A股成交额连续28个交易日超2万亿元。 9月19日，A股市场成交额（为表述方便，本文所指A股市场成交额，为沪深北三市全市场股票成交额之和）约2.35万亿 元，环比有所减少，但仍在2万亿元之上，维持了相对较高的水平。 | 证券简称 | 日均成交额(亿元) | 所属申万一级行业 | | --- | --- | --- | | 胜宏科技 | 207.82 | 电子 | | 中际旭创 | 203.83 | 通信 | | 寒武纪-U | 195.6 | 电子 | | 新易盛 | 191.23 | 通信 | | 阳光电源 | 171.99 | 电力设备 | | 宁德时代 | 159.03 | 电力设备 | | 工业富联 | 155.06 | 电子 | | 中芯国际 | 153.72 | 电子 | | 东方财富 | 144.54 | 非银金融 | | 立讯精密 | 139.17 | 电子 | | 先导智能 | 130 | 电力设备 | | 海光信息 | 127.02 | 电子 | | --- | --- | --- | | 卧龙电驱 | 120.64 | 电力设备 | | 中科曙光 | 106.38 | 计算机 | | 北 ...

图 一周摘要 图 市场概况： 上周（9月15日至9月19日）A股市场在政策预期与科技主线驱动下呈现结构性分化格局。尽 管上证指数、上证 50 等大盘蓝筹指数承压调整，但创业板指、科创50等成长风格指数表现强劲，显示 市场对科技赛道的持续偏好。具体来看，创业板50以2.84%的涨幅领跑，科创50上涨1.84%，反映出资 金对新能源电池、储能、半导体等泛科技领域的集中配置。从风格差异看，中证 500、中证 1000 等中 小盘指数分别微涨 0.32% 和 0.21%，相对抗跌，而大盘蓝筹代表上证 50、沪深 300 则分别下跌 1.98% 和 0.44%，体现出政策支持下中小市值成长股的韧性。全周上证指数下跌1.30%，深证指数上涨1.14%， 创业板指上涨2.34%。 行业板块： 上周Wind一级平均跌幅0.57%，Wind百大概念指数上涨比例60%。板块方面，42%板块获得 正收益，煤炭、电力设备、电子相对表现良好，分别上涨3.51%、3.07%、2.96%，机械设备、社会服 务、家用电器等也出现上行，而非银金融、有色金属、银行则明显走弱，分别下跌3.66%、4.02%、 4.21%。 基金发行： 上周合计发 ...