8 新浪期货 根据交易所数据，截至6月06日收盘主力合约30年期国债期货2509,涨跌+0.35%,成交量7.03万手，持仓数据显示前20席位 呈现净空，差额头寸为4496手。 30年期国债期货期货全合约总计成交7.43万手，比上一日新增3509手。全合约前20席位多头持仓9.35万手，比上一日增加2048手。 全合约前20席位空头持仓10.11万手，比上一日增加3465手。 根据合并数据显示，多头前三席位为中信期货，总持仓22092、国泰君安，总持仓13410、东证期货，总持仓11796；空头前三席位 为东证期货，总持仓12911、中信期货，总持仓12309、银河期货，总持仓11153； 主力合约前20席位中，多头增仓前三名分别是：东证期货、持仓11096、增仓1300，中信期货、持仓19576、增仓718，国泰君安、 持仓10501、增仓462；多头减仓前三名分别是：宏源期货、持仓1565、减仓-529，平安期货、持仓4951、减仓-339，国金期货、 持仓2525、减仓-317； 主力合约前20席位中，空头增仓前三名分别是：国金期货、持仓4114、增仓1198，宝城期货、持仓4523、增仓852，申银万 ...

| | 名次 会员名称 成交量(双边) | | 増減 | 会员 | 持买单 | 增减 | 会员 | 持卖单 | 增减 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | T | 国泰君安 | 100,028 | -27,871 | 国泰君安 | 22,407 | -1,159 | 国泰君安 | 39,022 | -9,765 | | 2 | 中信期货 | 96,189 | 5,243 | 东证期货 | 13,333 | -211 | 永安期货 | 20,596 | 1,426 | | 3 | 东证期货 | 73,471 | 4,995 | 东方财富 | 11,803 | -1,239 | 中信期货 | 18,288 | -3,491 | | ব | 中泰期货 | 49,603 | 9,021 | 中泰期货 | 10,999 | -982 | 东证期货 | 13,639 | -2,814 | | 5 | 徽商期货 | 46,451 | 4,572 | 徽商期货 | 10,385 | -1,536 | 申万期货 | 12,575 | ...

Group 1 - The rapid contraction of the gold-silver ratio may not be sustainable, with market volatility driven by tariff negotiations and bond market changes [1] - The gold-silver ratio has significantly adjusted, potentially influenced by the recent US-China leaders' call, but the ultimate trend may be more related to liquidity conditions [2] - Short-term drivers for gold and silver are unclear, with geopolitical risks and US tariff policies affecting market sentiment [3] Group 2 - The recent rise in precious metals is supported by both technical momentum and fundamental improvements in the overall metals market, with strong physical silver demand from India and recovering platinum demand from China [4] - Market expectations for at least two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year have been bolstered by an unexpected rise in initial jobless claims [4] - The uncertainty surrounding tariff negotiations remains, with potential for increased safe-haven demand for gold if substantial progress is not made [3]

Summary of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Conference Call - June 05, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) - **Speaker**: Lynn Martin, President of NYSE since 2022 Key Points IPO Market Sentiment - Initial optimism for the IPO market at the start of the year, which continued until mid-March [3] - Volatility in April caused several companies to delay their IPO plans, particularly international firms awaiting clarity on tariff debates [4] - Recent successful IPOs include Hinge Health, Mountain, and Circle, with Circle's IPO seeing a 30% increase from its offering price [5] - Companies that went public in 2024, such as Rubrik and Reddit, have seen their market caps triple, indicating readiness for the public market [6] Futures Business Positioning - The futures business thrives in volatile environments as companies seek to manage risk [8] - ICE has curated its futures portfolio to include energy, interest rates, and equity indices, focusing on global supply and demand dynamics [9] - Energy open interest has increased by 6% year-on-year and nearly 10% compared to the end of 2024, indicating growing trust in ICE's platform [10][11] Mortgage Business Opportunities - The mortgage business is seen as an opportunity to leverage data for revenue growth across ICE's services [14] - 65% of new mortgage originations occur through ICE's network, presenting a significant data opportunity [16] - The introduction of mortgage rate lock index futures is a step towards productizing mortgage data [17] Extended Trading Hours - ICE has extended U.S. equities trading hours to 22 hours a day, with plans for further extensions [20] - The focus is on adding reliability and resiliency to the trading ecosystem [21] Options Market Dynamics - Retail participation in options has surged, particularly with zero days till expiry (DTE) options, which have seen significant volume increases since COVID [27] - The average response time for processing incoming order messages has improved, with a peak of 1.1 trillion messages processed in April [28] Texas Market Developments - ICE has reincorporated NYSE Chicago debt to Texas, aligning with the state's business-friendly initiatives [33] - Texas is the largest state for ICE listings, and there is positive sentiment among companies considering dual listings [35] Tokenization and Crypto - ICE is cautiously optimistic about entering the crypto space, pending regulatory clarity [42][44] - Tokenization is viewed as a potential area for improving market structure, though its exact role remains uncertain [45][46] Future Trends - AI adoption is expected to be a significant storyline in the exchange space, with a focus on maintaining market integrity [49] - Globalization trends are also anticipated to influence the movement of companies to U.S. markets due to valuation appreciation [50] Additional Insights - The importance of institutional players in the futures market has been emphasized, with a focus on supply and demand dynamics [12][13] - The mortgage business is seen as a long-term growth opportunity, with a focus on efficiency and data utilization [16][18] - The competitive landscape in options trading has evolved, with retail driving significant volume increases [27][28] This summary encapsulates the key insights and developments discussed during the conference call, highlighting the strategic positioning and future outlook of Intercontinental Exchange.

Report Summary 1. Index Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.42% to close at 3376.2 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.87%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.11%, the Northbound 50 Index rose 1.1%, the STAR 50 Index rose 0.45%, and the CSI A500 Index rose 0.48%. A-share trading volume reached 1.18 trillion yuan, up from 1.16 trillion yuan the previous day [7] - The closing prices, changes, trading volumes, and turnovers of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices are as follows: Shanghai 50 closed at 2690.8243 with a 0.13% change, trading volume of 27.60 billion and turnover of 511.09 billion yuan; CSI 300 closed at 3868.7429 with a 0.43% change, trading volume of 116.80 billion and turnover of 2117.36 billion yuan; CSI 1000 closed at 6123.172 with a 0.88% change, trading volume of 186.96 billion and turnover of 2320.40 billion yuan [4] 2. CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading - The trading volume and open interest data of put and call options for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices are presented, including put/call ratios (PCR) for both trading volume and open interest [4] 3. Volatility Analysis - Historical volatility chains and next - month at - the - money implied volatility, as well as volatility smile curves, are analyzed for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices [7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The log market is expected to continue its oscillating and weakening pattern. Although the market has not shown a signal of stabilizing from the decline, the downside space is limited, and excessive bearishness is not advisable. Attention should be paid to the long - entry opportunity when the 09 contract stabilizes after a decline. Meanwhile, as the option volatility has slightly increased, attention should be paid to the opportunities of selling out - of - the - money put options and buying out - of - the - money call options on the 07 contract [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Log Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecast for logs is 740 - 800, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 16.28% and a historical percentile of 67.4% over three years [2]. Log Hedging Strategy - **Inventory Management**: For high log import volume and inventory, to prevent inventory losses, enterprises can short log futures (lg2507, sell, 25%, entry range 800 - 785) to lock in profits and cover production costs; buy put options (lg2507P775, buy, 50%, entry range 9.5 - 14) to prevent sharp price drops and sell call options (lg2507C800, sell, entry range 4.5 - 7.5) to reduce capital costs [2]. - **Procurement Management**: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, to prevent rising log prices from increasing procurement costs, buy log futures (lg2507, buy, 50%, entry range 750 - 800) to lock in procurement costs in advance; sell put options (lg2507P750, sell, 75%, entry range 5.5 - 12) to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction - Today, the 07 main contract increased its positions by 2057 lots and fell 1.58%, while the 09 contract increased positions by 813 lots and fell 1.16%. The spot price remained stable, and the basis strengthened. The closing basis was 35.1 based on the 8% over - length price of 5.9 - meter medium - grade A logs. In the 22nd week, 11 vessels of New Zealand logs were expected to arrive at 18 ports, 2 more than last week, a week - on - week increase of 22%, with a total arrival volume of about 372,000 cubic meters, an increase of 33,000 cubic meters from last week, a week - on - week increase of 10%. The May FOB price of 110 US dollars had active transactions, and subsequent arrivals were expected to remain high. June - July is the off - season for downstream consumption, and there is expected to be some pressure on the outbound volume. The latest FOB price is 110 - 112 US dollars, a 2 - dollar increase from the previous period. It is difficult to see a weakening of foreign quotes. Traders' losses have not been repaired, and they have the intention to jointly support prices. The futures price is at a discount, and there is no profit in selling for hedging, so there is no strong motivation to sell on the futures market [3]. Spot and Basis - On June 5, 2025, the spot prices of various specifications of logs in different ports remained unchanged compared to the previous day and five days ago. The basis (after conversion) was calculated according to the formula: basis (after conversion)=spot price with 108% over - length - main contract futures price ± premium/discount (subtract premium or add discount) [5][8]. Log Data Overview - **Supply**: The radiation pine import volume in April 2025 was 1.65 million cubic meters, a decrease of 60,000 cubic meters from the previous month and a year - on - year decrease of 10.3% [9]. - **Inventory**: As of May 30, 2025, the national port inventory was 3.41 million cubic meters, a decrease of 20,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 2.1%. The port inventory in Shandong was 1,895,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 25,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 4.5%. The port inventory in Jiangsu was 1,135,153 cubic meters, an increase of 35,553 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 35.3% [9]. - **Demand**: As of May 30, 2025, the average daily outbound volume of logs at ports was 628,000 cubic meters, an increase of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%. The average daily outbound volume in Shandong was 331,000 cubic meters, an increase of 11,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%. The average daily outbound volume in Jiangsu was 229,000 cubic meters, a decrease of 7,000 cubic meters from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 12.3% [9]. - **Profit**: As of June 6, 2025, the radiation pine import profit was - 46 yuan per cubic meter, an increase of 1 yuan from the previous week, and the spruce import profit was - 108 yuan per cubic meter, also an increase of 1 yuan from the previous week [9]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Due to continuous import losses, traders have the intention to jointly support prices; macro - policies are exerting force; the overall sentiment of commodities has improved [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The demand is weaker than expected, and the sales are slow; the subsequent shipping volume has recovered [7].

研究员: 许方莉 期货从业资格号F3073708 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0017638 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽油(日,元/吨) | 9152 | 51 期货收盘价(活跃合约):菜籽粕(日,元/吨) | 2567 | 24 | | 期货市场 | 菜油月间差(9-1):(日,元/吨) | 157 | 15 菜粕月间价差(9-1)(日,元/吨) | 254 | 22 | | | 主力合约持仓量:菜油(日,手) | 301781 | - ...

南华商品指数：黑色板块领涨，农产品板块领跌 2025-06-05 08:55:52 王怡琳 > 南华期货 股票代码 603093 南华商品指数日报 2025年6月4日 | | | | 南华商品指数市场数据 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数名称 | 今收盘 | 昨收费 | 点数 | 日時 | 年化收益率 | 年化波动室 | Sharpe | | | Today Close | Pre. Close | Points | ଚିତ୍ର | ABB | An. Vol | Batio | | 综合指数 NHCl | 2382.69 | 2361.76 | 20.93 | 0.89% | -14.10% | 14.05% | -1.00 | | 贵金属指数 NHPMI | 1221.32 | 1221.55 | -0.23 | -0.02% | 20.19% | 18.72% | 1.08 | | 工业品管数 NHII | 3439.76 | 3385.02 | 54.74 | 1.62% | -20.17% | 15.80 ...

资金方面，隔夜 shibor 报 1.4080%，较前一交易日下跌 0.2bp，7 天 shibor 报 1.5430%，较前一 交易日上涨 2.8bp；14 天 shibor 报 1.5760%，较前一交易日下跌 0.3bp；1 个月 shibor 报 1.6200%， 与上一交易日持平。 上一交易日国债期货市场 | | | 主力合约 | 开盘价 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 收盘价 | 涨跌(%) | 振幅(%) | 成交 | 持仓 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2 | 年期 | TS2509 | 102.372 | 102.416 | 102.360 | 102.396 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 31202 | 114335 | | 5 | 年期 | TF2509 | 105.990 | 106.060 | 105.935 | 106.035 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 46001 | 139957 | | 10 | 年期 | T2509 | 108.720 | 108.775 | ...

Group 1 - The core concept of the new futures trading fee structure includes a "+1 point" fee model and an unconditional rebate application, aimed at reducing trading costs for investors [3][19] - The "+1 point" model involves a minimal additional fee of 0.01 yuan per contract on top of the exchange's fixed fee, making it attractive for high-frequency traders and day traders [5][6] - This model significantly lowers friction costs for frequent trading, potentially saving thousands of yuan annually for traders executing high volumes [5][11] Group 2 - The unconditional rebate mechanism allows clients to receive a portion of the exchange's fee rebate, typically around 30%-40%, directly back, further reducing their effective trading costs [8][10] - For example, if the exchange charges a fee of 2 yuan, after a 30% rebate, the client's actual cost can drop to 1.47 yuan per contract [8][11] - The rebate is beneficial for high-frequency traders as it can cover 30%-50% of the total fees, enhancing profitability [11][12] Group 3 - Investors should be cautious of hidden fees and service quality, as lower fees may correlate with reduced support services from brokerage firms [7][18] - Different exchanges have varying rebate policies, and it is essential for traders to confirm the specifics of these policies before engaging [13][15] - The choice of brokerage should balance cost and service quality, with high-frequency traders prioritizing low fees and fast rebate processing, while longer-term investors may value research support and risk management [16][17]