文 ： 华创证券研究所副所长 、首席宏观分析师 张瑜（执业证号：S0360518090001） 联系人： 陆银波（15210860866） 韩港（微信 HGK1366） 2&3 ）从就业 & 工资来看 ，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡量）两个维度， 2024 年， 建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农民工就业人数 增长、同时工资增速提升，后续吸纳就业或仍有空间。交运仓储、批发零售、住宿餐饮则是"量升价落"， 后续吸纳就业或面临量与价的抉择。 4 ）从消费结构看 ，此前农民工消费结构更侧重商品消费，但从近期情况看，其教育、住房、娱乐等服务 消费或在快速增长，消费结构有望向服务倾斜。 5 ）从经济体感看， 我们计算农民工视角下的 GDP 增速。 2020-2022 年该增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速， 对应该时期消费 K 型复苏。 2023-2024 年农民工视角下的 GDP 增速持续高于官方 GDP 增速，对应该时期 消费下沉。而从 2025 年一季度看，农民工视角下的 GDP 与官方 GDP 之间的差距已基本弥合，意味着此 前的消费 K 型复苏、 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ❖ 一、人流：主要流向东部，但规模已不及 2019 年 农民工从哪里来，到哪里去？2024 年，农民工总数为 3.0 亿人，总量创新高， 占到我国就业总人数的 41%。从输出地看，农民工主要来自东部、中部地区， 分别为 1.1、1.0 亿人，占到 35%、33%。而输入地主要集中在东部，为 1.5 亿 人、占比 51%。 短期看，农民工仍在向东部流动。使用各地区农民工输入数-输出数，观察农 民工的净流动情况。2024 年农民工净流入集中在东部、其他地区（中国港澳 台地区及海外），2024 年分别净流入 4834、89 万人，同比增长 41、19 万人。 【宏观快评】 农民工群体的五点观察 ❖ 核心观点 2024 年农民工群体已达 3 亿人，创历史新高，本文关注农民工的近况。 1）从人口流动来看，2024 年农民工仍主要流向东部地区，但对比 2019 年， 净流入规模已减少约 450 万人。 2&3）从就业&工资来看，结合量（以就业增速衡量）价（以工资增速变化衡 量）两个维度，2024 年，建筑业或是"缩量保价"，即农民工就业人数减少、 但工资增速提升。制造业是"量价齐升"，农 ...

10日，在宁夏建设职业技术学院宁夏建筑领域智能建造和超低能耗技术产教融合基地项目现场，装配式 围挡整齐划一，雾炮机与洒水车正在同步作业。 作为宁夏"揭榜挂帅"重点工程，该项目不仅注重技术突破，更探索市场化运营模式。通过节能节水、年 减排180吨碳等实效，项目有望成为学校、医院等公共建筑的低碳样板，推动西北地区建筑业向智能 化、绿色化升级。 项目以"全周期低碳"为核心，集成12项前沿技术。据承建方相关负责人介绍，建筑外墙采用300毫米烧 结煤矸石保温砖与130毫米热固复合聚苯板，屋面铺设150毫米阻燃挤塑板，综合传热系数降低30%，性 能远超国家近零能耗标准。此外，项目创新应用"数字孪生""隔震减震"技术，地下设置2.2米隔震层， 抗震等级达一级，为西北高烈度地震区建筑安全树立标杆。 目前，项目土方开挖及支护进度达90%，主体施工即将全面展开。建成后，这一基地将成为西北地区智 能建造与低碳技术融合发展的新高地，为区域经济高质量发展注入新动能。 在能源利用方面，屋顶与立面集成太阳能光伏系统，年发电量达20万千瓦时，可满足建筑15%用电需 求；空气源热泵与雨水回收系统联动，年节水1200吨，减少碳排放180吨，直接 ...

Core Viewpoint - The transition of low-carbon buildings from pilot demonstrations to large-scale applications faces challenges in gaining broader acceptance from owners, despite the increasing emphasis on green attributes by developers [1][2]. Group 1: Current State of the Industry - The construction industry is a major source of carbon emissions in China, with building construction and operation energy consumption accounting for 44.8% of the national total energy consumption and 48.3% of energy-related carbon emissions in 2022 [2]. - The implementation of the "Residential Project Specification" by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development aims to enhance residential quality through a technical framework focused on safety, comfort, greenness, and intelligence [1][2]. Group 2: Market Challenges - Consumers express concerns about the premium associated with green buildings and the practicality of new technologies, such as air-source heat pumps, which raises questions about noise levels and heating effectiveness compared to traditional methods [1]. - High initial construction costs and market hesitance due to economic pressures hinder the adoption of high-standard green buildings, with some companies abandoning or limiting their efforts in this area [4][5]. Group 3: Future Prospects - Despite current challenges, industry professionals remain optimistic about the future of green low-carbon development, recognizing the long-term benefits of energy-efficient designs and technologies [4][5]. - The upcoming national standards for zero-carbon buildings and carbon measurement are expected to facilitate a shift from energy management to carbon emission management in the construction sector [7][8]. Group 4: Technological and Design Innovations - Various building types, including rural homes, are increasingly adopting low-carbon technologies, with initiatives like the "Zero Carbon Village" project showcasing the integration of clean energy into building designs [3]. - The industry is exploring diverse methods to reduce carbon emissions, including operational carbon reduction through electrification and low-carbon structural systems [3][6].

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on Employment - The total employment driven by exports in China is estimated to be around 120 million people, with exports contributing more significantly to the economy than to employment [1][4][9] - The additional tariffs imposed by the US on China are expected to reduce employment by approximately 0.9% to 1.4%, translating to a potential loss of between 6.684 million and 9.957 million jobs [1][9][12] - Industries most affected by the tariffs include leather and footwear, wood furniture, and textiles, which have high exposure to US revenue and low labor productivity [1][12][13] Group 2: Changes in Employment Environment - The overall employment absorption capacity in China is declining, with GDP growth slowing down leading to an increase in unemployment rates [2][15][18] - The shift from an external to an internal economic cycle is causing a reduction in employment opportunities, particularly in the primary and secondary industries, while the tertiary sector's growth remains slow [2][17][20] - The mismatch between supply and demand in the labor market is exacerbated by factors such as generational wealth transfer, educational mismatches, and a growing preference for stable jobs [2][34][36][37] Group 3: Policies to Stabilize Employment - Continued economic development is essential to create new job opportunities, particularly in the tertiary sector, which has significant potential for employment growth [3][44][46] - Reforming vocational and professional education systems is necessary to align educational outcomes with labor market needs and improve the quality of the workforce [3][48][50] - Enhancing information flow regarding job vacancies, especially in technical fields, is crucial to better match job seekers with available positions [3][50][53]

Group 1 - Germany's industrial output increased by 3% month-on-month in March, marking the highest quarterly growth since early 2022 with a 1.4% increase in Q1 [1] - The construction sector saw a month-on-month increase of 2.1%, while the energy sector experienced a decline of 1.8% [1] - Excluding construction and energy, industrial output rose by 3.6% in March, with significant contributions from the automotive industry (8.1% growth), pharmaceuticals (19.6% growth), and machinery manufacturing (4.4% growth) [1] Group 2 - Year-on-year, Germany's industrial output decreased by 0.2% in March after adjusting for working days [2]

Core Insights - Digital transformation has become a global consensus, with the industrial internet emerging as a significant driver of economic growth, projected to account for approximately 21% of China's GDP by 2035 [1] Group 1: Building Industry Internet Transformation - The building industry internet integrates digital technologies such as BIM, 5G, big data, the internet, and IoT, leading to a transformation in production models and enhanced efficiency for enterprises and projects [3] - It empowers small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) by providing support in market access, technology, talent, management, and digital transformation, thereby improving their operational capabilities and innovation [3] - The integration of production processes through collaborative platforms enables efficient project management and resource optimization across the entire organization [3] Group 2: Value Chain and Ecosystem Reconstruction - The building industry internet promotes the integration of the value chain, industry chain, and supply chain, creating a new ecosystem through a "platform + ecosystem" model [5] - This model facilitates seamless connections and efficient collaboration across all stages of engineering management, from design to operation, enhancing data sharing and resource collaboration among upstream and downstream enterprises [5] Group 3: Systematic Service Provision - The building industry internet facilitates the integration of consulting, planning, design, construction, and operation, providing systematic services across the entire industry chain [6] - It leverages the roles of leading enterprises and SMEs to expand the application of industrial internet, promoting digitalization and intelligent management in key processes [6] Group 4: Market Demand and Collaborative Development - The building industry internet connects various stakeholders, including government, traditional design, construction, and operation entities, enabling information sharing and resource integration [8] - It addresses market demands through innovative applications in urban renewal, rural construction, and ecological governance, creating new infrastructure and business models [8]

Group 1: Service Trade Performance - In Q1 2025, China's service trade totalled 19,741.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [3] - Service exports reached 8,351.5 billion yuan, growing by 12.2%, while imports were 11,390.3 billion yuan, increasing by 6.2% [3] - The service trade deficit was 3,038.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 244.6 billion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - Knowledge-intensive service trade grew to 7,524.9 billion yuan, up 2.6%, with significant contributions from business services and telecommunications [3] - Travel services saw the highest growth, with total imports and exports reaching 5,849 billion yuan, a 21.8% increase, and exports surged by 97.5% [3] Group 2: Manufacturing PMI Analysis - In April 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 1.5 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing activity [5] - The production index was at 49.8%, reflecting a slight slowdown in manufacturing production [6] - The new orders index fell to 49.2%, suggesting a decrease in market demand for manufactured goods [7] - The raw materials inventory index dropped to 47.0%, indicating a reduction in the inventory levels of key raw materials [8] - The employment index was at 47.9%, showing a decline in employment levels within the manufacturing sector [9] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Insights - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.4% in April 2025, down 0.4 percentage points but still indicating expansion [10] - The construction sector's business activity index was 51.9%, while the services sector's index was 50.1%, both showing a decline from the previous month [10] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing fell to 44.9%, indicating a drop in market demand [10] - The input prices index was at 47.8%, suggesting a decrease in the overall price level of inputs used in non-manufacturing activities [11] - The business activity expectations index remained optimistic at 56.0%, despite a slight decline [11] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.2% in April 2025, down 1.2 percentage points but still above the critical point, indicating continued expansion in production activities [13]

Group 1 - The unemployment rate in the Philippines for March is reported at 3.9%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [1] - The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.9%, down 2.4 percentage points year-on-year and lower than 64.5% in February [1] - The total labor force dropped to 49.96 million from 51.15 million a year ago and 51.09 million in February, indicating a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The employed population in March decreased to 48.02 million, lower than 49.15 million in both the previous year and February [1] - The number of unemployed individuals in March was 1.93 million, a decrease of 70,000 from the previous year and slightly lower than 1.94 million in February [1] - The services sector accounted for the majority of employment, with 29.77 million jobs, representing 62.0% of total employment [1] Group 3 - The underemployment rate rose to 13.4% in March, up from 11.0% a year ago and 10.1% in February, indicating that 6.44 million workers are seeking more hours or better job opportunities [2] - The labor force participation rate for the 15 to 24 age group fell to 29.4% from 33.3% a year ago, while the unemployment rate for this group increased from 8.7% to 11.0%, highlighting increased pressure on youth employment [2]

期货研究报告|宏观数据 2025-05-06 4 月 PMI 回落，关税扰动初现 ——宏观景气度系列四 研究院 徐闻宇 xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1289 号 4 月中国制造业 PMI 为 49.0（-1.5pct MoM）；非制造业 PMI 为 51.9（-1.5pct MoM）。 核心观点 ■ 制造业 PMI 供给：制造业生产回落。4 月生产指数为 49.8，较上月变化-2.8 。供应商配送时间指数 为 50.2，较上月变化-0.1 。 需求：制造业需求回落。4 月新订单指数为 49.2，较上月变化-2.6 。新出口订单指数为 44.7，较上月变化-4.3 。在手订单指数为 43.2，较上月变化-2.4 。 供求平衡：供需关系小幅改善但未扭转。4 月供需指数（需求-供给）为-0.6 ，较上月变 化 0.2 ，较去年同期变化 1.2 ，较过去三年均值变化 1.1 。 价格：制造业盈利收缩。4 月原材料价格指数为 47，较上月变化-2.8 。出厂价格指数为 44.8，较上月变化-3.1 。出厂价格-原材 ...