证券研究报告 | 宏观专题研究 | 中国宏观 8 月 PMI：新动能或主要支撑经济修复 —2025 年 8 月 PMI 数据解读 核心观点 8 月制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为 49.4%，较 7 月回升 0.1 个百分点，说明 经济维持修复态势，经济的主要支撑来自政策组合拳协同共振，内生动能尚 有一定改善空间。从结构上看，生产指数和供应商配送时间指数均高于临界 点，新订单指数、原材料库存指数和从业人员指数低于临界点，说明制造业 有效需求依然承压，供给侧的韧性主要来自工业稳增长政策效能释放。我们 认为，前期的"两重"和"两新"等政策稳步发力，新近推出的财政贴息、加 强全国碳市场建设、金融支持新型工业化、"人工智能+"行动等政策也更多 支撑新动能。 从重点行业来看，新动能加快扩张，传统产业边际改善。8 月高技术制造业和 装备制造业 PMI 分别为 51.9%和 50.5%，比上月上升 1.3 和 0.2 个百分点， 支撑引领作用持续增强；消费品行业 PMI 为 49.2%，比上月下降 0.3 个百分 点；高耗能行业 PMI 为 48.2%，比上月上升 0.2 个百分点，景气水平连续回 升。 大类资产方面，我们认 ...

Group 1 - The latest inflation data in the U.S. indicates a profound structural divergence in price pressures within the economy, presenting unprecedented challenges for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy [1][2] - In July, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index accelerated at an annualized rate of 4.4%, marking the third consecutive month of strong momentum, particularly driven by persistent inflation in the service sector [1][2] - In contrast, durable goods prices experienced a monthly decline with an annualized decrease of 1.3%, reflecting the impact of tariffs and consumer resistance to high prices [1][2] Group 2 - The divergence in inflation dynamics highlights the complexity of the U.S. inflation landscape, with service sector inflation, especially in non-housing services, becoming a primary driver of overall price increases [1][2] - The characteristics of the service sector make it more challenging to suppress prices, as many essential services lack transparent price comparison mechanisms and face insufficient market competition [1][2] - Conversely, the durable goods market is experiencing different dynamics, with consumers becoming more price-sensitive due to tightened monetary policy, leading businesses to adopt discounting and promotional strategies to maintain sales [1][2] Group 3 - Despite tariffs being seen as a potential factor for rising goods prices, U.S. companies have accumulated substantial profits over the past few years, providing them with ample capacity to absorb tariff costs, thereby limiting the transmission effect of tariffs on final consumer prices [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma as its 2% inflation target is continuously challenged by persistent core service sector inflation, with the core PCE price index's annualized growth rate reaching 3.3% in July, significantly above target levels [2] - Overall PCE and core PCE year-on-year growth rates have accelerated for three consecutive months, indicating a worsening inflation situation despite a decline in energy prices, which has had limited impact on core inflation [2] Group 4 - The structural divergence in inflation necessitates the Federal Reserve to weigh multiple factors in policy formulation, as excessive focus on declining goods prices may underestimate the stubbornness of service sector inflation, potentially leading to uncontrolled inflation expectations [2] - Conversely, overly tightening measures to curb service sector inflation could unnecessarily impact the goods sector and overall economic growth [2] - Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will continue to closely monitor service sector inflation developments and may maintain high interest rates for an extended period, with the possibility of further rate hikes to ensure inflation returns to target [3]

Group 1 - The manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) for August is 49.4%, showing a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved market demand [3][4] - The production index for August is 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, reflecting stable expansion in production activities [3][4] - The raw material purchase price index has risen for three consecutive months, indicating accelerating raw material prices, while the factory price index has also increased for three months, reaching the highest point since 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The equipment manufacturing PMI is 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points, and the high-tech manufacturing PMI is 51.9%, up 1.3 percentage points, with both production and new order indices rising to around 54% [4] - Large enterprises continue to show stable expansion, with a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, indicating robust supply and demand dynamics [6] - Market demand is stabilizing, and production is expanding steadily, supported by macroeconomic policies and the upcoming peak production season [6] Group 3 - The non-manufacturing business activity index is 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [11] - The service sector business activity index is 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points, reaching a year-high, driven by summer consumption and supportive policies [11] - Industries such as capital market services, railway transportation, and telecommunications are experiencing high business activity indices above 60%, indicating rapid growth in business volume [14]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - In August, the Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, indicating an improvement in economic conditions compared to the previous month [2] - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking four consecutive months above the critical point, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [2] - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, reflecting a slight rise in demand, with notable performance in the pharmaceutical and electronics sectors [2] - The purchasing activities have accelerated, with the purchasing volume index rising to 50.4% [2] - The prices of major raw materials and factory prices increased, with the raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and factory price index at 49.1%, indicating an overall improvement in market prices [2] Group 2: Enterprise Size and Sector Performance - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, indicating sustained expansion [3] - Medium-sized enterprises saw a decline in PMI to 48.9%, reflecting a downturn in economic conditions [3] - Small enterprises experienced a slight improvement with PMI at 46.6%, up by 0.2 percentage points [3] - High-tech manufacturing and equipment manufacturing sectors showed strong performance with PMIs of 51.9% and 50.5%, respectively [3] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Insights - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index rose to 50.3%, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [5] - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, marking a significant recovery and the highest point of the year [5] - Certain industries, such as capital market services and transportation, reported business activity indices above 60.0%, indicating robust growth [5] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1% due to adverse weather conditions, reflecting a slowdown [5] Group 4: Comprehensive PMI Overview - The Comprehensive PMI Output Index increased to 50.5%, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [6] - The manufacturing production index and non-manufacturing business activity index were reported at 50.8% and 50.3%, respectively, contributing to the overall expansion [6]

Economic Recovery Indicators - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest improvement in manufacturing sentiment [1] - The non-manufacturing business activity index stands at 50.3%, up by 0.2 percentage points from last month, continuing to show expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [1] Price Indices - The purchasing price index for major raw materials is at 53.3%, rising by 1.8 percentage points, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, increasing by 0.8 percentage points, both indicating a general improvement in market prices [1][4] - The raw material purchasing price index has been in the expansion zone for two consecutive months, reflecting a significant rise in raw material costs [4] Demand and Production Trends - The new orders index in the manufacturing PMI is at 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points, while the new export orders index is at 47.2%, also increasing by 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a stabilization in demand [4] - The production index is reported at 50.8%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating stable expansion in production activities [4] Business Expectations - The manufacturing business activity expectation index is at 53.7%, rising by 1.1 percentage points, reflecting improved market confidence and expectations across various industries [6] - Large enterprises show stable expansion with a PMI of 50.8%, while small enterprises have a PMI of 46.6%, indicating a recovery trend [6] Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing business activity index remains in expansion at 50.3%, with the service sector index at 50.5%, reaching a yearly high [9] - The service industry shows optimism with a business activity expectation index of 57.0%, indicating positive market outlook [9] Construction Sector Insights - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions [10] - The construction business activity expectation index is slightly up at 51.7%, indicating cautious optimism for future activities [10]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI remains below the growth line for five consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic pressure, although there are signs of improvement due to policy measures and reduced extreme weather impacts [1][4]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI for August is reported at 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing sentiment [1]. - The new orders index within the manufacturing PMI is at 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, while the production index is at 50.8%, reflecting a stable expansion in production activities [4]. - The purchasing price index for raw materials is at 53.3%, up 1.8 percentage points, indicating a continued rise in raw material prices, while the factory price index is at 49.1%, up 0.8 percentage points, marking the highest level this year [4][5]. - Large enterprises show stable expansion with a PMI of 50.8%, while small enterprises have a PMI of 46.6%, indicating a recovery trend [5]. Economic Outlook - The production and business activity expectation index for August is at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points, suggesting improved market confidence and expectations for future economic performance [6]. - Positive factors are accumulating, leading to expectations of continued economic recovery in September and the fourth quarter, with stable demand and production activities in the manufacturing sector [6]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating ongoing expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [9]. - The service sector's business activity index is at 50.5%, reaching a yearly high, while certain industries like retail and real estate remain below the critical point, indicating weaker performance [9][10]. - The construction sector's business activity index is at 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown in production due to adverse weather conditions [10].

Core Viewpoint - In August 2025, China's Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) showed a slight recovery in the manufacturing sector and an accelerated expansion in the non-manufacturing sector, indicating an overall improvement in economic conditions [2][6]. Manufacturing PMI Summary - The manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in the manufacturing sector's economic climate [2][7]. - The production index reached 50.8%, up by 0.3 percentage points, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated production expansion [3][10]. - The new orders index increased to 49.5%, up by 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight improvement in market demand [10]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up by 0.5 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises showed PMIs of 48.9% and 46.6%, respectively, indicating varying levels of economic activity across different enterprise sizes [3][10]. - The price indices for major raw materials and factory prices were 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, both showing increases, suggesting an overall improvement in market price levels [3][10]. Non-Manufacturing PMI Summary - The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [2][24]. - The service sector's business activity index rose to 50.5%, up by 0.5 percentage points, reaching a yearly high, with sectors like capital market services and transportation showing strong growth [4][17]. - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down by 1.5 percentage points, reflecting a slowdown due to adverse weather conditions [5][17]. - The business activity expectation index for the non-manufacturing sector was 56.2%, indicating optimism among businesses regarding future market conditions [23][24]. Comprehensive PMI Summary - The comprehensive PMI output index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across both manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors [6][26].

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][4] - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a decline to 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, and small enterprises reported a PMI of 46.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [4] - The production index was at 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating accelerated manufacturing production expansion [4][5] Group 2: Manufacturing Sub-indices - The new orders index was 49.5%, up 0.1 percentage points, suggesting a slight improvement in market demand [4] - The raw materials inventory index was 48.0%, up 0.3 percentage points, indicating a narrowing decline in major raw material inventory levels [4] - The employment index was 47.9%, down 0.1 percentage points, reflecting a slight decrease in employment sentiment within manufacturing [4] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [9] - The construction sector's business activity index was 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the services sector's index rose to 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [12] Group 4: Non-Manufacturing Sub-indices - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, up 0.9 percentage points, indicating improved market demand [13] - The input prices index was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable input prices for non-manufacturing enterprises [13] - The sales prices index was 48.6%, up 0.7 percentage points, suggesting a narrowing decline in sales prices [13] Group 5: Composite PMI Overview - The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, an increase of 0.3 percentage points, indicating an overall acceleration in production and business activities across sectors [19]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Overview - In August, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.4%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][5] - The PMI for large enterprises was 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises saw a decline to 48.9%, down 0.6 percentage points, and small enterprises reported a PMI of 46.6%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points [5] - The production index was 50.8%, rising by 0.3 percentage points, suggesting accelerated manufacturing production [5][10] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing PMI Overview - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating continued expansion in the non-manufacturing sector [12] - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points, while the service sector's index rose to 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points [15] - The new orders index for non-manufacturing was 46.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points, reflecting improved market demand [19] Group 3: Employment and Price Indices - The employment index for manufacturing was 47.9%, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, indicating a slight decline in employment sentiment [8] - In the non-manufacturing sector, the employment index remained at 45.6%, suggesting weak employment conditions [21] - The input prices index for non-manufacturing was 50.3%, unchanged from the previous month, indicating stable input costs [19]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in China showed signs of improvement in August, with key indices indicating a continued expansion in economic activity [1][2][7]. Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for August was reported at 49.4%, reflecting a 0.1 percentage point increase from July, indicating a slight improvement in manufacturing sentiment [2][4]. - The production index reached 50.8%, up 0.3 percentage points from July, marking the fourth consecutive month above the critical point, suggesting accelerated production expansion [4]. - The new orders index was at 49.5%, with a 0.1 percentage point increase from the previous month, indicating a modest rise in demand [4]. - The price indices for major raw materials and factory output were 53.3% and 49.1%, respectively, both showing increases, which suggests an overall improvement in market price levels [4]. - Large enterprises reported a PMI of 50.8%, up 0.5 percentage points from July, indicating a sustained expansion, while small enterprises saw a PMI of 46.6%, reflecting a slight improvement [4]. - The production and business activity expectations index was at 53.7%, up 1.1 percentage points from July, indicating increased confidence among manufacturers regarding future market conditions [4]. Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index for August was 50.3%, a 0.2 percentage point increase from July, indicating continued expansion in the sector [7][9]. - The service sector's business activity index reached 50.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from July, marking the highest level for the year, with certain industries like capital market services showing particularly strong growth [9]. - The construction sector's business activity index fell to 49.1%, down 1.5 percentage points from July, attributed to adverse weather conditions affecting production [9]. - The business activity expectations index for the service sector was 57%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase from July, indicating optimism among service providers regarding market prospects [9][10].