Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommend" rating for the aviation sector, highlighting potential opportunities in the industry [2][3]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival travel rush has begun, with air passenger volume averaging 2.313 million per day, up 5.5% year-on-year, while railway passenger volume averaged 11.792 million, down 0.7% year-on-year [1][10]. - The report emphasizes the competitive landscape in instant retail, particularly with the launch of the "30 Billion Free Order" campaign by Qianwen, which saw over 10 million orders in just 9 hours [2][35]. - The report identifies key players in the aviation sector, including China National Airlines, Southern Airlines, and Eastern Airlines, as well as low-cost carriers like Spring Airlines, which are expected to benefit from high price elasticity and operational efficiency [2][34]. Industry Data Tracking - Air freight rates at Pudong Airport increased by 5.3% week-on-week and 8.9% year-on-year as of February 2 [7][44]. - The VLCC freight rate rose by 2% week-on-week, while the BDI decreased by 10% [7][48]. - The report highlights the growth potential in the express logistics sector, particularly for leading companies like Zhongtong and Yuantong, as well as the promising outlook for instant retail leader SF Express [7][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on "performance elasticity" and "dividend value" as key investment themes for the transportation sector in 2026 [7][31]. - It recommends continued investment in the aviation sector due to expected low growth in aircraft supply and a projected 5% increase in passenger numbers [2][31]. - The report also emphasizes the importance of dividend assets, recommending companies like Sichuan Chengyu and China Merchants Port for their stable performance and potential for increased dividends [7][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the aviation sector, indicating a potential "golden era" for airlines due to improving demand and supply constraints [2]. Core Insights - The report highlights India's potential reduction in Russian oil imports, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which may impact shipping dynamics [2]. - The report emphasizes the strengthening of the shipbuilding sector, with recommendations for companies like China Shipbuilding and China Power, as the dollar strengthens [2]. - The report notes that VLCC freight rates remain high, with a slight increase of 2% week-on-week, indicating a complex interplay between supply and demand in the oil shipping market [2]. - The aviation sector is expected to see significant improvements in profitability due to historical high passenger load factors and a growing trend in international travel [2]. - The express delivery industry faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to maintain their market share and profitability [2]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Oil Transportation - VLCC freight rates have shown a week-on-week increase of 2%, with current rates at $124,743 per day, while Suezmax and Aframax rates have decreased by 3% and 7% respectively [2]. - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions on shipping rates, particularly in the context of the Middle East and the Black Sea region [2]. Aviation - The aviation sector is poised for a significant turnaround, with airlines expected to benefit from increased capacity allocation to international routes and a favorable oil price environment [2]. - Companies such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, and Spring Airlines are highlighted as key players to watch in this sector [2]. Express Delivery - The express delivery sector is characterized by a concentration of market share among leading firms, with ZTO Express and YTO Express being noted for their resilience and growth potential [2]. - The report suggests that despite uncertainties, the competitive landscape will favor established players [2]. Rail and Road Transportation - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic have shown resilience, with a reported increase of 2.27% and 4.75% respectively in recent weeks [2]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend yields and potential value management opportunities [2].

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2026 02 08 年 月 日 交通运输 春运拉开帷幕，航空迎周期景气拐点 周观点：2 月 2 日，2026 年春运正式拉开帷幕，首日全社会跨区域人员流动量 18498.6 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 11.3%，其中民航客运量 223.4 万人次，比 2025 年同期增长 7.4%；根据航班管家，截至 2 月 6 日，2026 年春运民航累计平 均票价 840 元、同比 2025 年同期增长 3.0%，累计客座率 83.3%、同比 2025 年 同期增长 1.2 个百分点。在春运高景气预期下，继续看好" 扩内需"及" 反内卷" 下航空板块中长期景气度。 行情回顾：本周（2026.2.2-2026.2.6）交通运输板块行业指数上涨 1.90%，跑赢 上证指数 3.17 个百分点（上证指数下跌 1.27%）。从申万交通运输行业三级分类 看，涨幅前三名的板块分别为航空运输、快递、物流，涨幅分别为 8.15%、3.76%、 1.24%；跌幅前三名的板块分别为公路货运、航运、港口，跌幅分别为-0.85%、- 0.44%、-0.40%。 航运港口：VLCC ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the transportation sector, with specific recommendations for companies such as SF Holding and China Southern Airlines [2][4]. Core Insights - The express delivery sector experienced a year-on-year growth of 2.3% in December, with major companies benefiting from price increases due to reduced competition. The total express business revenue for 2025 reached 1.5 trillion yuan, a 6.5% increase year-on-year [2]. - The logistics sector is seeing improvements with DSV's integration of DB Schenker progressing ahead of schedule, and a focus on smart logistics is recommended for Hai Chen Co. [3]. - The aviation sector is witnessing a slight decrease in flight volumes, but ticket prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from manufacturers. Recommendations include China National Aviation and China Southern Airlines [4]. - The shipping sector shows a mixed performance, with container shipping rates declining while oil transport indices are on the rise, indicating a potential increase in oil transport demand [5]. - The road and rail sectors are showing stable growth, with significant increases in truck traffic on highways and a notable rise in the dividend yield of major public road operators [6][79]. Summary by Sections 1. Transportation Market Review - The transportation index rose by 1.8% during the week of January 31 to February 6, 2026, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.2% [1][13]. 2. Industry Fundamentals Tracking 2.1 Shipping Ports - The export container shipping index (CCFI) was reported at 1122.15 points, down 4.5% week-on-week and down 20.7% year-on-year. The Shanghai export container shipping index (SCFI) was at 1266.56 points, down 3.8% week-on-week and down 33.2% year-on-year [21]. 2.2 Aviation Airports - In December 2025, civil aviation passenger volume reached 60.6 million, a 6% increase year-on-year, with domestic routes showing a 6% increase and international routes a 9% increase [56]. 2.3 Rail and Road - In December 2025, national railway passenger volume was 323 million, up 8.52% year-on-year, while road freight volume was 3.797 billion tons, up 0.62% year-on-year [77][79].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the transportation industry, particularly highlighting the potential for a "golden era" in aviation [1]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes India's potential reduction in oil imports from Russia, shifting towards sourcing from non-sanctioned countries like the US and Venezuela, which could impact shipping dynamics [3]. - The strengthening of the US dollar is expected to benefit the shipbuilding sector, with Q1 performance anticipated to improve [3]. - The report suggests that the aviation sector is poised for significant growth due to historical high passenger load factors and increasing international travel demand, despite supply constraints [3]. Summary by Sections Transportation Industry Performance - The transportation index increased by 1.90%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 3.23 percentage points [4]. - The aviation sector saw the highest increase at 8.15%, while the raw materials supply chain services experienced a decline of 2.10% [4]. Shipping and Freight Rates - The VLCC average freight rate rose slightly by 2% to $124,743 per day, with Middle East to Far East rates remaining stable at $134,282 per day [3]. - The report notes fluctuations in various shipping rates, with Suezmax rates declining by 3% to $94,768 per day and Aframax rates down by 7% to $91,146 per day [3]. Aviation Sector - The report highlights the unprecedented challenges in the aircraft manufacturing supply chain and the aging fleet, which is expected to constrain supply [3]. - It predicts a significant improvement in airline profitability as more capacity is allocated to international routes, marking a turning point for the industry [3]. Express Delivery and Logistics - The express delivery sector faces uncertainties in demand and regulatory policies, but leading companies like ZTO Express and YTO Express are expected to gain market share [3]. - SF Express is noted for its structural adjustments and potential bottoming opportunities [3]. Rail and Road Transport - Rail freight volumes and highway truck traffic are showing resilience, with national rail freight reaching 76.1 million tons, a 2.27% increase week-on-week [3]. - The report identifies two main investment themes in the highway sector: high dividend stocks and undervalued stocks with potential for market capitalization management [3].

2月7日，上海市十六届人大四次会议上，《上海市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要》（以下 简称《纲要》）的相关决议获表决通过，上海未来的五年蓝图就此绘就，即将徐徐铺陈展开。 两会现场，围绕这份《纲要》的讨论气氛热烈。 镜头前，一位科技领域的代表畅谈人工智能如何赋能实体经济；专题审议中，关于上海"五个中心"建设 的思考愈发深入；小组讨论时，代表们共议如何把最好的资源留给人民——每一句建言，每一次讨论， 都是为了让这座城市更具高度与温度。 代表建言中，"十五五"的宏伟蓝图细化成可操作的路径、具体细致的场景，勾勒出一座社会主义现代化 国际大都市应有的精气神与民生底色。 创新引领，锻造高质量发展新引擎 上海肩负国家战略使命，是世界观察中国的重要窗口。新征程上，如何更好发挥经济大省挑大梁作用， 持续提升国际经济中心地位？ "希望我们的产融服务真正地沉下去、帮到位，筑牢上海实体经济的根基，也为上海加快国际金融中心 建设添一份力。"国泰君安期货有限公司计划财务部总经理助理马炜代表表示，期待金融机构能够在未 来更多赋能上海的实体经济。 面向"十五五"，上海提出促进各类先进生产要素向发展新质生产力加快集聚，强化高端产业引领 ...

近日，中信里昂一年一度的风水研报出炉。 研报强调"2026年将告别蛇年的犹豫试探，马年以自信之姿，携万钧之势奔腾而至"。从中信里昂给出的风水指数图来看，恒生指数马年走势节奏鲜明：2月触底后一 路走高至6月，7月迎来回调，后续小幅震荡上行至11月，12月显著下挫，直至2027年1月迎来强势反弹。其中3月至6月，恒生指数将迎来一波较大的上涨行情。 看好2026年的恒生指数 报告强调"2026年将告别蛇年的犹豫试探，马年以自信之姿，携万钧之势奔腾而至"。"岁初走势或如脱缰野马，纵横驰骋；但随着时间推移，稳健之势将逐步显现。 等到年关将近，市场又将掀起新一轮变局风云。"中信里昂分阶段研判明年港股形势。 中信里昂对2026年每个月的恒生指数走势，都给出了较为明确的预测。2月，恒生指数开局表现不尽如人意，以下跌之势拉开全年序幕；3月，市场将迎来一轮小幅 上扬；4月，市场将显著攀升；5月，指数再迎一波不俗上涨；6月，指数迎来年度最强跃升；7月，指数上月大半涨幅将尽数回吐；8月，指数将再度上行一截；9 月，指数将小幅上扬；10月，指数陷入横盘震荡，上行突破乏力；11月，指数将稳步上行；12月，从预判的走势图来看，指数将显著回 ...

这项行政令和限制更新的同步发布，表明美国在系统地放大伊朗贸易风险的外溢影响。过去，美国主要 通过金融工具实施二级限制，现在结合关税机制，形成更全面的压力。航运企业需要把伊朗相关暴露作 为长期合规重点，审视整个供应链，包括船舶来源、货物来源、客户关系和服务环节，以免在双重工具 下意外触碰红线。企业如果被列入名单，后果包括资产冻结和交易禁令，这会影响它们的全球运营，尤 其是在美国有业务的那些。 从博弈角度看，这项令对中美经贸关系有潜在影响，因为中国是伊朗的重要贸易伙伴，但令中没有立即 把中国列为加税对象。原因可能是考虑到加税会干扰中美现有的经贸议程，增加美国国内的通胀压力和 供应链成本。去年中美在关税问题上有过谈判和缓和迹象，在没有更强触发条件下，美国可能不会轻易 升级到对华加税，尤其令本身保留了部门裁量权和总统最终决定权。这样的设计让政策有弹性，能根据 实际情况调整。 伊朗石油贸易网络的复杂性是这次行动的焦点，美国情报显示，这些影子船队通过频繁换旗和老船运营 来规避制裁。列入名单的船舶大多建造于上世纪末或本世纪初，航行路径避开主流监测区，运载货物到 亚洲和中东港口。财政部在更新时，同步发布了指导，提醒行业注意这 ...

（来源：信德海事） 中远海运甲醇双燃料改造再落一子，"中远海运牡丹"轮交付启航 ——13.8K系列首制船树立绿色改造标杆 从改造内容看，"中远海运牡丹"轮并非局部升级，而是围绕燃料系统、动力系统与船体结构实施系统性工程，核心包括主机及全部4台副机改装/更换为甲 醇双燃料动力，新增2个总容量约10000立方米的大型甲醇燃料舱，并配套完成艉甲板提升改造以及相关系统集成与调试。项目实施过程中，面对原船结构 复杂、施工空间受限、甲醇舱特涂要求极高、工期异常紧张等挑战，上海中远海运重工项目团队精心策划、科学组织，连续攻克甲醇舱特涂、大型设备吊 装、系统集成调试等关键难点，最终实现安全、优质、高效交付。 甲醇作为清洁燃料，可有效降低硫氧化物、氮氧化物和颗粒物等排放，并显著减少二氧化碳排放，是当前航运业推进绿色转型的重要路径之一。"中远海 运牡丹"轮完成甲醇双燃料改造后，叠加原有节能配置，船舶能效水平实现提前达标，绿色竞争力进一步提升。这不仅意味着更强的法规适应能力与更长 的资产生命周期，也将为客户提供更具确定性的低碳运输选择。 在运营服务层面，"中远海运牡丹"轮依托AWE4、SEA两大航线，串联东南亚、华南、华东与美东、 ...

在"十五五"规划纲要中，再次提到了加快"五个中心"建设，其中的"国际航运中心建设"中，"打造国际 航运绿色燃料加注中心和交易中心"的新提法引人关注。 最近，交通运输部联合十部委共同发布《关于支持上海国际航运绿色燃料加注中心和交易中心建设的实 施方案》（下称"《实施方案》"），明确到2030年建成国际航运绿色燃料加注中心和交易中心，意味着 国家对上海建设绿色燃料两个中心的顶层支持。 多位行业内人士对记者指出，之所以要把建设绿色燃料两个中心纳入上海"十五五"规划，背景是全球航 运脱碳进入实质推进阶段，上海国际航运中心正面临一轮由航运绿色转型所引发的能级重构。 全球航运脱碳进入实质推进阶段，上海国际航运中心正面临一轮由航运绿色转型所引发的能级重构。 上海市第十六届人民代表大会第四次会议今日圆满完成各项议程，大会表决通过了关于上海市人民政府 工作报告、关于上海市国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划纲要（下称"十五五"规划纲要）等决议。 据上海海关统计，2025年全年，在船舶能源加注方面，保税LNG加注量达到71.2万立方米，同比大幅增 长54%；国产绿色甲醇加注量达到1.0万吨。 进入2026年，绿色燃料加注业务持续进 ...