文 | 庄鑫 1月30日，西安旅游股份有限公司（简称西安旅游，股票代码000610.SZ）发布2025年度业绩预告，预计 2025年归母净利润亏损2.37-2.90亿元，扣非净利润亏损2.11亿-2.66亿元。 根据公告，本会计年度末，归属于母公司所有者权益预计为-5331.74万元至-31.74万元，而上年末所有 者权益为2.37亿元。若所有者权益（净资产）由正转负，意味着公司已资不抵债。 | | | | 项目 | 本报告期 | | | 上年同期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 归属于上市公司股 东的净利润 | -29.000 | ﺏ | -23. 700 | -26, 033. 68 | | 扣除非经常性损益 后的净利润 | -26, 550 | 2 | -21. 065 | -26, 156. 19 | | 基本每股收益(元/ 股) | -1.2249 | ﺏ | -1.0011 | -1. 0996 | | 营业收入(如适 用) | 51,500 | 2 | 59, 500 | 58. 215. 59 | | 项目 | 本会计年度末 | | | 上年末 | | ...

摘要 政策风向：城市更新顶层设计持续强化，各地城市更新实践持续深入。自然资源部、住建部发布《关于进一步支持城市更新行动若干措施的通知》，对拟 实施城市更新区域的详细规划进行评估、优化。2024年全国城市更新项目数量60015个，完成总投资额2.9万亿元。城镇老旧小区改造、城中村改造及地下 管网改造等是城市更新重要内容。 境内宏观：2026年1月份，制造业PMI为49.3%，比上月下降0.8个百分点，不及近年同期平均水平，降幅强于季节性。展望2026年，财政部表态确保总体 支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"，预计宏观政策更加积极有为，托底总需求。 境外宏观：凯文·沃什被提名为下一任美联储主席，他主张是"降息+缩表"，认为美联储需要为通胀负责。他的政策主张在维持美联储独立性和向特朗普表 衷心之间能够实现更好的平衡。1月美联储按兵不动符合预期，预计2026年或仍有2-3次降息。1月FOMC会议美联储对经济、就业和通胀都表现出了更乐 观的态度，这为重启降息增加了不确定性。 城市更新顶层设计持续强化 观点： 城市更新顶层设计持续强化，各地城市更新实践持续深入，有望成为着力稳定房地产市场和扩大内需的重要抓手。 ...

市工商联主席娄丽军在讲话中表示，工商联作为民营企业的"娘家"，为企业提供金融服务，缓解企业融资难题，既是政银企三方紧密协同合作的生动实 践，又是助力优化营商环境的具体体现，市工商联将继续跟踪服务，通过精准对接，进一步推动银企双方合作，搭好桥、服好务。 会上，铁岭天兴酒店总经理刘畅介绍了企业目前经营状况、当前面临的资金难题及融资需求等情况。盛京银行银州支行负责人刘丛洋针对企业提出的需 求，现场分析组建方案，研究提供适配的信贷产品和金融服务，帮助企业缓解资金压力。会上三方围绕融资条件、授信流程、风险管控等具体细节进行了 深入探讨，盛京银行将充分发挥金融机构的支撑作用为企业创新发展提供好服务，最后，铁岭天兴酒店与盛京银行银州支行初步达成合作意向。 1月30日，市工商联组织铁岭天兴酒店、盛京银行银州支行举办"送服务、解难题、促发展"政银企融资对接会，市工商联主席娄丽军参加座谈会。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article outlines the "2026 'Le Gou New Spring' Spring Festival Special Activity Plan" aimed at stimulating consumer spending during the Spring Festival by promoting various activities and incentives across multiple sectors [1][2][3]. Group 1: Activity Overview - The Spring Festival will have a 9-day holiday from February 15 to 23, 2026, with a focus on enhancing market vitality and enriching cultural life [5]. - The plan emphasizes government guidance, market leadership, and public participation, targeting core consumer needs related to family reunions and shopping [4]. Group 2: Activity Content - Culinary activities will include the "Chinese Food Fair" and "Old Brand Carnival," promoting local delicacies and festive meals, with events like food competitions and community food markets [6]. - Housing and accommodation sectors will offer promotions such as "New Spring Home Renewal" and discounts for extended stays in hotels and resorts [7]. - Transportation sectors will enhance capacity and offer special promotions for travel, including ticket discounts and improved services for travelers [8]. - Retail activities will focus on promoting local products and organizing shopping festivals, encouraging participation from various merchants and communities [9]. - Cultural and entertainment events will include film promotions, public performances, and extended hours for museums and sports venues [10]. Group 3: Support Measures - The plan encourages the implementation of reward invoices and shopping lotteries to attract consumer participation [9]. - Financial institutions are urged to collaborate with merchants to offer special promotions, including consumption red envelopes and discounts [10]. - Cross-industry collaborations are promoted, linking dining, accommodation, and entertainment sectors to enhance consumer experiences [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the consumer services industry, particularly focusing on the upcoming Spring Festival consumption boost [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the Spring Festival consumption season is set to begin, with various local governments implementing consumption-boosting policies, which are expected to drive strong market performance [1][2]. - Three major highlights of the consumption promotion activities are identified: unprecedented subsidy levels directly reaching consumers, innovative consumption scenarios integrating various sectors, and the synergy between online and offline channels through digital empowerment [2][3]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The consumer services industry is rated as "Recommended" with a focus on benefiting companies in dining, hotels, tourism, duty-free, and retail sectors due to the anticipated recovery in consumer enthusiasm [1][3]. Key Highlights of Consumption Promotion - Subsidies are at an all-time high, with local governments offering consumption vouchers and subsidies exceeding 100 million yuan in various provinces, which is expected to enhance consumer purchasing power [2]. - Innovative consumption scenarios are being developed, moving beyond traditional discounts to immersive experiences that combine culture, tourism, and sports, thereby revitalizing traditional service sectors [2]. - The integration of online and offline channels is becoming more pronounced, with e-commerce platforms actively participating in promotional activities, enhancing efficiency and broadening the consumption landscape [2]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates a robust recovery in the Spring Festival consumption market in 2026, with data potentially exceeding market expectations, laying a solid foundation for sustained consumer market recovery throughout the year [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the consumer services industry, particularly focusing on the upcoming Spring Festival consumption boost [1]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival consumption season is expected to see strong government-led promotional activities, which will drive consumer spending and create a vibrant festive atmosphere [1][2]. - Key highlights of the promotional activities include unprecedented subsidy levels, innovative consumption scenarios, and the integration of online and offline channels to enhance consumer experiences [2][3]. Summary by Sections Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the consumer services industry, anticipating a strong recovery in consumption during the Spring Festival [1]. Core Insights - The Spring Festival consumption season is expected to see strong government-led promotional activities, which will drive consumer spending and create a vibrant festive atmosphere [1][2]. - Key highlights of the promotional activities include: 1. Unprecedented subsidy levels, with local governments offering substantial consumption vouchers and subsidies across various sectors, including retail and dining [2]. 2. Innovative consumption scenarios that enhance consumer experiences, such as cultural markets and sports tourism events [2]. 3. The effective integration of online and offline channels, with e-commerce platforms participating in promotional activities to drive traffic and enhance efficiency [2]. Industry Data - The consumer services sector comprises 55 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 498.8 billion [4]. - The sector's performance over the past month shows a decline of 7.7%, while the overall market has seen a slight decrease of 1.6% [5][10]. Recent Announcements - Notable announcements include significant expected losses from companies like Huazhong Hotel and Zhongxin Tourism, while companies like Keri International anticipate substantial profit growth [33].

Core Viewpoint - Jin Jiang Hotels experienced a stock price decline of 2.02% on February 2, 2025, with a trading price of 26.68 yuan per share and a total market capitalization of 28.449 billion yuan [1]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Year-to-date, Jin Jiang Hotels' stock price has increased by 5.58%, with a 1.00% decline over the last five trading days, a 9.43% increase over the last 20 days, and a 16.61% increase over the last 60 days [1]. - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 1.67% to 82,800, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 2.87% to 14,286 shares [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Jin Jiang Hotels reported a revenue of 10.241 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decrease of 5.09%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 746 million yuan, down 32.52% year-on-year [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 6.356 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 1.132 billion yuan distributed over the last three years [3]. Group 3: Shareholding Structure - As of September 30, 2025, the second-largest circulating shareholder is Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, holding 66.3329 million shares, a decrease of 15.7034 million shares from the previous period [3]. - The fourth-largest circulating shareholder is the Fortune CSI Tourism Theme ETF, holding 9.4105 million shares, which increased by 3.4881 million shares compared to the previous period [3].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional consumer sector is expected to show signs of recovery in 2026 after a three-year adjustment period, supported by policy measures, cyclical patterns, and a low base effect from 2025 [1][3][7] Industry Overview - Since 2023, various segments of the consumer market, including liquor, beer, condiments, frozen foods, dining, travel, and hotels, have undergone adjustments to achieve supply-demand balance and inventory reduction [2][10] - By the third quarter of 2025, signs of bottoming out in the consumer sector were observed across multiple dimensions [2][11] Consumer Trends - High-end consumption is showing signs of recovery, with brands like Hermès and Prada reporting continuous same-store sales growth, while Louis Vuitton and Burberry have seen a narrowing of same-store sales declines [2][12] - The restaurant sector is also improving, with major hot pot brands experiencing a reduction in turnover rate declines, returning to stable levels by late 2025 [2][12] - The travel sector has seen positive trends, with major hotel groups reporting a turnaround in average daily rates (ADR) and revenue per available room (RevPar) since September 2025 [2][12] Economic Indicators - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained low from February to September 2025 but returned to positive growth in October, reaching 0.7-0.8% in November and December, the highest since the pandemic [3][13] Investment Directions - The investment landscape for consumer goods in 2026 presents numerous structural opportunities, focusing on new industry trends, new product cycles, and investments in companies at the bottom of the cycle [4][14] - A new industry trend, "hard discount retail," is emerging, characterized by direct sourcing and reduced channel costs, particularly in the snack food category [4][14] - New product cycles are being driven by innovative items like electrolyte water and konjac snacks, which are gaining popularity and market share [5][15] - The liquor sector remains a focal point for investors due to its strong brand positioning and potential for market share growth, especially as demand is expected to recover in 2026 [6][16][17]

全域联动年味十足 商文旅体融合发力 ■本报记者罗颢 围绕"特色好物·品质广西"主题，广西将联动东盟开展网上年货节、邮政年货节等超150场线上线下活 动，梧州六堡茶、柳州螺蛳粉等上百款桂品通过"与辉同行·阅山河广西行"等直播专场走向全国。 "购在中国——2026广西乐购新春消费季"活动已于1月30日正式启动。记者昨日从自治区商务厅获悉， 此次活动以"策马八桂·悦见美好"为主题，持续至3月底。全区将推出6大板块28项主题、超1000场次促 消费活动，以亿元补贴、全域联动、便利服务三重保障，为区内外消费者奉上一场覆盖"吃住行游购 娱"的新春消费盛宴。 真金白银补贴加码 换新消费实惠满满 此次消费季活动，最受关注的是"智焕生活·惠享广西"以旧换新系列活动，推出超亿元补贴政策，覆盖 汽车、家电、数码三大品类。 在汽车领域，消费者报废旧车换购新能源乘用车，可享12%补贴（最高2万元）；换购2.0升及以下燃油 乘用车，可享10%补贴（最高1.5万元）。旧车界定时间进一步放宽，汽油车、柴油车及新能源车分别 延至2013年、2015年、2019年6月30日前登记上牌。 家电与数码产品补贴同样力度空前。消费者购买1级能效的冰箱、 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to multiple companies in the discretionary consumption sector, including Nike, Li Ning, Midea Group, JD Group, Haier Smart Home, Gree Electric, Anta Sports, and many others [1]. Core Insights - The discretionary consumption sector has experienced a significant pullback due to the hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve, leading to a decline in global asset prices [4][13]. - The report highlights that the domestic sportswear sector has shown resilience, with a weekly increase of 0.6%, while other sectors such as luxury goods and cosmetics have faced declines [5][15]. - The report notes that various sub-sectors within discretionary consumption have performed differently, with gold and jewelry being the top performers in the recent weeks [4][13]. Summary by Relevant Sections Weekly Performance Review - The report details the weekly performance of various sectors, indicating that domestic sportswear outperformed others with a 0.6% increase, while luxury goods saw a decline of 5.8% [4][13]. - Monthly performance shows gold and jewelry leading with a 14.8% increase, while luxury goods and overseas sportswear faced significant declines [4][13]. Sector Analysis - The domestic sportswear sector's growth is attributed to increased demand for warm clothing due to colder weather and strategic partnerships, such as Anta Sports' acquisition of a stake in PUMA [6][15]. - The credit card sector experienced mixed results, with Mastercard performing well while Visa and American Express faced declines due to varying financial performance [15]. - The retail sector saw a decline of 1.4%, with some companies like China Resources Vanguard performing well due to favorable policies [15]. Valuation Analysis - The report indicates that the expected PE ratios for various sectors in 2025 are below their historical averages, suggesting potential investment opportunities [11][18]. - For instance, the expected PE for the domestic sportswear sector is 13.4 times, which is 70% of its past five-year average [11][18].