Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Shanghai International Paper Exhibition will be held at the Shanghai New International Expo Center, featuring an exhibition area of 120,000 square meters, with an expected attendance of 100,000 visitors and 1,200 exhibitors, highlighting the importance of outstanding exhibition design for participating companies [1] Group 1: Exhibition Goals and Budget Planning - Companies must clearly define their exhibition objectives, such as launching new packaging paper or enhancing their green brand image through sustainable paper production [3] - Budget allocation is crucial, with recommendations to spend 40%-50% on design and construction, 20%-30% on exhibits, and 10%-20% on personnel and promotion [4] Group 2: Design Key Points - The exhibition style should reflect the company's product characteristics, such as using an art gallery theme for artistic paper or an industrial design for industrial paper [6] - Space layout should include designated areas for product display, meetings, and interactive experiences to enhance visitor engagement [9] Group 3: Material Quality and Construction - It is essential to select materials that meet safety and environmental standards, ensuring structural integrity and health safety during the exhibition [11] - Construction should adhere strictly to design specifications, with a detailed schedule to manage the setup process effectively [13][14] Group 4: Product Arrangement - Products should be displayed according to their characteristics, with lightweight artistic papers suspended and heavier materials stacked for visibility [15] - Special display props can enhance product features, such as showcasing waterproof capabilities through transparent containers [16]

十四届全国人大常委会第十五次会议于今年4月30日表决通过《中华人民共和国民营经济促进法》，自 今年5月20日起施行。今天是这部法律正式施行的第一天。 民营经济促进法第一次将坚持"两个毫不动摇"写入法律，第一次明确民营经济的法律地位，第一次在法 律中规定"促进民营经济持续、健康、高质量发展，是国家长期坚持的重大方针政策"。 记者注意到，近段时间以来，浙江、江苏、广东、江西、陕西等多省份围绕保护民营企业发展、破除民 营经济发展障碍等开展专项整治行动，或出台新政新举，促进民营经济高质量发展。 北京、浙江等地密集发布针对民营经济发展的政策包 从现象级游戏《神话：悟空》到宇树科技的扭秧歌机器人，再到今年人工智能领域的DeepSeek，浙江 省涌现了一批"话题级"的民营企业。 公开数据显示，截至2024年底，浙江民营企业在册总量350.53万户，占企业主体总量的92.06%。2024年 中国民营企业500强等榜单上，浙江有106家企业入围，数量连续26年居全国首位。 近年来，浙江鼓励和支持民营企业积极参与全球范围产业分工和资源配置，出台了一系列护航民营经济 发展的政策举措。 北京的这些新举措，首先聚焦"科技创新"，将持续 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The geopolitical situation causes repeated disturbances to oil prices, and the macro - economic uncertainty limits the upside space of oil prices, with short - term shocks expected [1][2]. - The asphalt market has a relatively good fundamental situation, with low - inventory levels before the peak season, and prices are expected to have upward elasticity [3][5]. - The liquefied gas market is under pressure during the summer off - season, with a weak fundamental situation [5][8]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand growth, while the low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [9][11]. - The natural gas price in the US is expected to be weak in shock, while in Europe it is expected to be strong in shock [11][12]. - The PX and PTA markets are expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter due to future supply and demand patterns [14][16]. - The ethylene glycol supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [17][18]. - The short - fiber price follows the raw material trend, and the market is currently weak [19][20]. - The bottle - chip market is weak, and the processing fee may be suppressed [21]. - The styrene price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall, with a short - term upward trend [23]. - The PVC is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the caustic soda demand has uncertainty [26][27]. - The polyolefin market is expected to be short - term volatile and medium - term bearish [30]. - The soda ash price is expected to decline, and the glass price is expected to be weak in shock [32][37]. - The urea price is expected to be volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to policy changes [38][39]. - The methanol market is still mainly for rebound short - selling [40][42]. - The log market is expected to be stable in the short term but faces challenges in the long term [43][46]. - The double - offset paper market continues to be weak, and the corrugated paper market is expected to rebound [46][48]. - The paper pulp market has both positive and negative factors, and the natural rubber market has different trends in different regions [49][53]. - The butadiene rubber market should be observed, and attention should be paid to support and resistance levels [54][56]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2506 contract settled at $62.69, up $0.20/barrel, + 0.32%; Brent2507 contract settled at $65.54, up $0.13/barrel, + 0.20%; SC main contract 2507 rose to 461.4 yuan/barrel, and night - session rose to 465.4 yuan/barrel. Brent main - secondary spread was $0.72/barrel [1]. - **Related News**: There are developments in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire negotiation and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and the EU plans to lower the price cap on Russian seaborne oil [1]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical factors cause repeated disturbances, and macro - economic uncertainty limits the upside space of oil prices. Short - term shocks are expected, and the medium - term range of Brent is expected to be $60 - 70/barrel [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term shocks, medium - term weakness; gasoline and diesel cracking spreads are stable; options are on hold [2]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2506 night - session closed at 3543 points (+ 1.17%), BU2509 night - session closed at 3470 points (+ 1.17%). Spot prices vary by region [3]. - **Related News**: The mainstream transaction prices in different regions have different trends, affected by factors such as refinery production and terminal demand [3][4]. - **Logic Analysis**: The start - up rate and inventory rate are low, and the price is expected to be weakly stable. The current fundamental situation is good, and the price has upward elasticity [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shocks; asphalt - crude oil spread is expected to be strong in shock; options are on hold [5]. Liquefied Gas - **Market Review**: PG2506 night - session closed at 4255 (- 0.21%), PG2507 night - session closed at 4193 (- 0.26%). Spot prices vary by region [5]. - **Related News**: The market in different regions has different trends, with supply and demand imbalances [6][7]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost side is affected by oil prices, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weak during the summer off - season. The fundamental situation is weak [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Not clearly stated, but the overall situation is bearish [8]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 contract night - session closed at 3034 (+ 0.60%), LU07 night - session closed at 3566 (- 0.28%). Singapore paper - cargo spreads have declined [9]. - **Related News**: Russian refinery maintenance and Thai fuel oil sales information [9]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has seasonal demand growth, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a supply increase and weak demand [10][11]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for single - side trading; FU 9 - 1 positive spread takes profit, LU7 - 8 reverse spread enters at high levels [11]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.133 (- 6.63%), TTF closed at 35.225 (+ 0.2%), JKM closed at 11.985 (+ 0.55%) [11]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas inventory is accumulating, and the price is expected to be weak in shock. European gas prices are affected by cold weather and geopolitics, and are expected to be strong in shock [11][12]. - **Trading Strategy**: HH is weak in shock, TTF is strong in shock [14]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6752 (+ 8/+ 0.12%), night - session closed at 6702 (- 50/- 0.74%). Spot prices have increased [14]. - **Related News**: The production status of PX devices and the sales situation of downstream products [14][15]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply shortage is slightly alleviated, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter [15]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shocks; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [15]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4776 (+ 2/+ 0.04%), night - session closed at 4746 (- 30/- 0.63%). Spot prices and basis have changes [16]. - **Related News**: The sales situation of downstream polyester products [16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to be stable and slightly strong in the third quarter, maintaining a tight - balance situation [16]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shocks; long PX and short PTA; double - selling options [17]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4475 (+ 15/+ 0.34%), night - session closed at 4440 (- 35/- 0.78%). Spot basis and transaction prices are provided [17][18]. - **Related News**: The inventory situation of ports and the production status of devices [18]. - **Logic Analysis**: The port inventory has declined slightly, the supply is expected to increase, and the supply - demand gap is expected to narrow [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [19]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6544 (- 6/- 0.09%), night - session closed at 6528 (- 16/- 0.24%). Spot prices are stable [19]. - **Related News**: The sales situation of downstream polyester products [19][20]. - **Logic Analysis**: The price follows the raw material trend, and the current market is weak [20]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level shocks; on hold for arbitrage and options [21]. Bottle - Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 6088 (+ 6/+ 0.10%), night - session closed at 6066 (- 22/- 0.36%). Spot market transactions are light [21]. - **Related News**: The export quotation situation of bottle - chip factories [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak, and the processing fee may be suppressed [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock consolidation; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [22]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2506 main contract closed at 7779 (+ 118/+ 1.54%), night - session closed at 7704 (- 75/- 0.96%). Spot prices and basis are provided [23]. - **Related News**: The inventory situation of ports and the production status of devices [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is decreasing and the demand is increasing, the port inventory is expected to decline slightly, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: Shock - upward trend; on hold for arbitrage and options [24]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: SH509 and V2509 have different closing prices in the day - session and night - session. PVC and caustic soda spot prices have changes [24][26]. - **Related News**: The price change of Shandong Xinfag liquid chlorine [27]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is in a long - term oversupply situation, and caustic soda demand has uncertainty [27]. - **Trading Strategy**: PVC is short - term volatile and long - term bearish; caustic soda is on hold in the short term and bearish in the medium term; on hold for arbitrage and options [29]. Polyolefin - **Market Review**: L2509 and PP2509 have different closing prices in the day - session and night - session. Spot prices in different regions have declined [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: The new capacity is being realized, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be short - term volatile and medium - term bearish [30]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term shocks, medium - term bearish; on hold for arbitrage and options [31]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The main 09 contract of soda ash futures has a certain closing price and spread. Spot prices vary by region [32]. - **Related News**: The inventory situation, market adjustment, and device maintenance information [33]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply is expected to increase, the demand is stable, and the price is expected to decline [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Cost decline, price decline; short soda ash and long glass; on hold for options [34][35]. Glass - **Market Review**: The main 09 contract of glass futures has a certain closing price and spread. Spot prices vary by region [35]. - **Related News**: The price change situation in different regions and the real - estate data [35][36]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to be weak in shock [36][37]. - **Trading Strategy**: Price is weak in shock; long glass and short soda ash; on hold for options [38]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures have declined, and spot prices are stable [38]. - **Related News**: The daily production and export - related information of urea [38][39]. - **Logic Analysis**: The production is at a high level, the demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Attention should be paid to policy changes [38][39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term callback long, not chasing; 91 positive spread enters at low levels, not chasing; sell put options [40]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures have declined, and spot prices vary by region [40]. - **Related News**: The production status of international methanol devices [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: The international supply is high, the import is expected to increase, the domestic supply is loose, and it is mainly for rebound short - selling [41][42]. - **Trading Strategy**: Rebound short - selling; on hold for arbitrage; sell call options [43]. Log - **Market Review**: The main contract is in low - level shocks, and spot prices are stable [43][45]. - **Related News**: The pre - arrival ship and inventory information of ports [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: The downstream demand is weak, and the market is expected to be stable in the short term but face challenges in the long term [45][46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Spot is stable and slightly weak, on hold; for aggressive investors, long at the previous low; pay attention to 9 - 11 reverse spread; on hold for options [47]. Double - Offset Paper - **Market Review**: The market is slightly declining, with different trends for high - white and natural - white paper [46]. - **Related News**: The supply and demand situation of the market [46]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is weak, the cost support is stable, and the demand is weak [46]. Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: The market prices of corrugated and box - board paper have increased [48]. - **Related News**: The price increase plan of scale paper mills and the demand situation of downstream [48]. - **Logic Analysis**: The tariff adjustment is expected to drive the demand rebound, but attention should be paid to relevant factors [48][49]. Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The futures market is strong, and spot prices of different types of pulp have different trends [49]. - **Related News**: The production and sales data of the paper - making industry in 2024 [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: There are both positive and negative factors, and different data have different impacts on the single - side trading of SP [51]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for the main 07 contract of SP, pay attention to the pressure at the Monday high; on hold for arbitrage [51]. Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber - **Market Review**: The prices of RU, JRU, NR, and TF have different changes, and spot prices are provided [51][52]. - **Related News**: The export data of Indonesian natural rubber [52]. - **Logic Analysis**: The import volume of domestic smoked - sheet rubber has increased, and the inventory situation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is provided [53]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions for the main 09 contract of RU, try short for the main 07 contract of NR; on hold for arbitrage and options [53]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: The price of the main 07 contract of BR has declined, and spot prices are provided [54]. - **Related News**: The IPO information of Zhongce Rubber [55]. - **Logic Analysis**: The inventory situation of domestic butadiene rubber and butadiene is provided [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: On hold for the main 07 contract of BR, pay attention to the support at the previous Friday low; hold the spread of BR2507 - NR2507, set the stop - loss at the previous Friday low; sell and hold the BR2507 put 11200 contract, set the stop - loss at the previous Friday high [56].

Group 1 - Jiangsu Jiatai Evaporation Equipment Co., Ltd. has experienced a significant reduction in administrative inspections, allowing more focus on business development due to the "one enterprise, one inspection" reform implemented by the Nanjing Lishui District [1] - The province is a major hub for private enterprises, with measures introduced to enhance political supervision and address corruption affecting private businesses, thereby optimizing the business environment for high-quality development [1] - Nine Dragons Paper (Taicang) Co., Ltd. is investing 5 billion yuan in a special materials project, expected to produce 1 million tons of specialty paper annually with an estimated annual output value of 8.5 billion yuan, although project delays are occurring due to environmental assessment and coordination issues [1] Group 2 - The Taicang City Discipline Inspection Commission has initiated a "help agency" process to expedite the construction permit for the Nine Dragons project, resulting in the project starting over a month earlier than expected [2] - Continuous efforts are being made by various levels of discipline inspection and supervision agencies to streamline the administrative process and enhance the business environment, including the establishment of a contact point system for enterprises [2][3] - The implementation of a new management system in Suqian City has facilitated data sharing and simplified inspection processes, benefiting over 5,000 enterprises and leading to numerous joint inspections [3] Group 3 - The provincial discipline inspection agencies are focusing on rectifying illegal and improper enforcement actions that hinder business operations, promoting a more standardized and effective regulatory environment [3][4] - The emphasis on systemic governance aims to address institutional barriers and improve the overall support for private economic development [4] - The Jinhu County Discipline Inspection Commission has identified issues in the employment and entrepreneurship sector, leading to recommendations for improving training programs relevant to local industries [5] Group 4 - The focus on improving the conduct of officials is crucial for enhancing the business environment, with initiatives encouraging proactive engagement with private enterprises [5] - The establishment of a mechanism for accountability and error correction is intended to foster a more supportive relationship between government officials and businesses [5]

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the urgent need for the paper industry to transform from a "resource consumer" to an "ecological co-builder" in response to climate change and carbon reduction goals [1] - The 16th "China Paper Industry Sustainable Development Forum" will be held on May 22, 2025, in Beijing, focusing on the theme "Intelligent Leadership in Paper Industry, Towards a Good Future" [1][2] - The forum aims to facilitate discussions on low-carbon technology innovation, industry chain collaboration, and ESG practices, with participation from various stakeholders including government, industry associations, and financial institutions [2][3] Group 2 - The theme "Intelligent Leadership in Paper Industry, Towards a Good Future" reflects a commitment to green transformation and harmonious coexistence between humans and nature [2] - The forum will feature discussions on the opportunities and challenges facing the Chinese paper industry by 2025, as well as the implementation paths for carbon neutrality in industrial manufacturing [2][3] - The event will also include a unique carbon neutrality certification from the Beijing Green Exchange, highlighting the industry's commitment to sustainable practices [3]

国泰君安期货·能源化工 胶版印刷纸周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年5月18日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 综述 01 行情走势 02 供需数据 03 行情研判 04 行情研判 行业资讯 现货价格 成本利润 季节性特征 供给 需求 库存 进出口 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 综述 1 行情研判 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 4 资料来源：Qinrex ➢ 行情回顾：上周双胶纸市场心态有所好转，交投仍显清淡。据卓创资讯数据显示，本周70g木浆高白双胶纸市场均价为5233元/吨，环比 下跌38元/吨，跌幅0.72%，本周跌幅环比扩大0.08个百分点；70g木浆本白双胶纸市场均价为4949元/吨，环比下跌19元/吨，跌幅 0.38%，本周跌幅环比收窄0.26个百分点。影响市场价格走势的主要因素有：第一，纸厂接单未见明显好转，库存压力继 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical news affects oil prices frequently, and in the absence of an OPEC statement on July production policy, oil prices are expected to oscillate. Macro factors are currently stable, with short - term Brent expected to trade between $62 - 65 per barrel and medium - term between $60 - 70 per barrel [2]. - For asphalt, supply has increased while demand is stable. Low inventory supports spot prices and benefits the peak - season outlook. With oil prices under pressure, asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at high levels, and the asphalt/oil price spread may widen [6]. - LPG is under pressure due to lower oil prices, increased supply from the US, and decreased demand, especially in the chemical sector. The market is expected to operate weakly [9]. - High - sulfur fuel oil has abundant short - term supply in Asia but a medium - term supply gap. Seasonal power - generation demand is increasing. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is rising while demand is weak [11]. - Natural gas in the US is expected to oscillate weakly due to maintenance at export terminals, increased inventory, and slightly decreased production. European natural gas may oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and supply - demand factors [12][13]. - PX and PTA are expected to oscillate at high levels due to increased maintenance, improved downstream demand, and a widened supply - demand gap [14][18]. - Ethylene glycol supply has tightened due to maintenance, and demand is expected to improve. The market is expected to oscillate [19]. - Short - fiber and PR (bottle - chip) are expected to oscillate at high levels, following the trend of polyester raw materials [21][22]. - Styrene supply is tight, but market buying interest weakens at high prices. Future trends depend on demand in the off - season, inventory changes, and export orders [23]. - Polyolefins face large production - capacity pressure in the 09 contract. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium term [26]. - PVC is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but face an oversupply situation in the long term. Caustic soda is recommended for short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [30][31]. - Glass is in a supply - surplus situation, with weak downstream demand. Prices are expected to be weak in the short term, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [33]. - Soda ash supply is increasing, and demand is lackluster. The 09 contract faces multiple pressures, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended [35]. - Urea inventories are decreasing, and export policies are favorable. Buying on dips is recommended [38]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and be sold on rebounds in the long term [40]. - Pulp prices are expected to oscillate, and it is recommended to take profits on long positions in the SP 07 contract [45]. - For natural rubber, hold short positions in the RU 09 contract and long positions in the NR 07 contract [48]. - For butadiene rubber, observe the BR 07 contract and reduce positions in the BR2507 - NR2507 spread [51]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2506 settled at $61.62, down $1.53 (-2.42%); Brent2507 settled at $64.53, down $1.56 (-2.36%); SC2507 closed at 471.7 yuan/barrel, down 6.6 yuan, and dropped 10.1 yuan in night trading to 461.6 yuan/barrel. The Brent front - to - second - line spread was $0.50 per barrel [1]. - **Related News**: Trump said the US is close to a nuclear deal with Iran, but an Iranian source said there are still gaps. Russia and Ukraine are to hold peace talks, and the IEA adjusted supply and demand forecasts [1][2]. - **Logic Analysis**: Geopolitical news affects oil prices, and without OPEC's July production policy, oil prices lack a clear trend and are expected to oscillate [2]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak oscillation, medium - term wide - range oscillation for single - sided trading; gasoline and diesel crack spreads are stabilizing; hold off on options [4]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2506 closed at 3469 points (+0.09%) in night trading, and BU2509 closed at 3403 points (+0.24%). Spot prices in different regions varied [4]. - **Related News**: In Shandong, prices were stable, with increased refinery shipments. In the Yangtze River Delta, prices were stable, and some refineries planned to cut production. In South China, prices were stable, and demand is expected to increase [4][5]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply increased, demand was stable, and low inventory supported prices. Oil price pressure may limit asphalt price increases [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; the asphalt - oil spread is expected to strengthen; hold off on options [6]. LPG - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4278 (-0.53%) in night trading, and PG2507 closed at 4190 (-0.4%). Spot prices in different regions were reported [6]. - **Related News**: In South China, prices fell and may stabilize. In East China, prices declined slightly, and in Shandong, prices were mixed [7][8]. - **Logic Analysis**: Lower oil prices, increased supply from the US, and decreased demand in the chemical sector put pressure on the LPG market [9]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak oscillation for single - sided trading [9]. Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2991 (-1.16%) in night trading, and LU07 closed at 3596 (-1.18%). Singapore's high - and low - sulfur fuel oil spreads increased [9]. - **Related News**: Dangote refinery plans to sell fuel oil, Singapore's fuel oil inventory reached a two - month low, and Russian exports decreased [10]. - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur supply is abundant in the short term but has a medium - term gap. Low - sulfur supply is increasing while demand is weak [11]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold off on single - sided trading; take profits on the FU 9 - 1 calendar spread [11]. Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH closed at 3.358 (-3.72%), TTF at 35.294 (+0.7%), and JKM at 11.88 (-0.04%) [12]. - **Related News**: Maintenance at US export terminals led to a price drop, and inventory increased [12]. - **Logic Analysis**: US natural gas is expected to oscillate weakly, while European natural gas may oscillate strongly [12][13]. - **Trading Strategy**: Weak oscillation for HH single - sided trading, strong oscillation for TTF single - sided trading [13]. PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 closed at 6762 (-1.72%) and 6784 (+0.33%) in night trading. Spot prices decreased [13][14]. - **Related News**: Polyester product sales were weak, and PX and PTA operating rates changed [14]. - **Logic Analysis**: Increased PX maintenance and strong gasoline demand tightened the PX supply - demand structure, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [14]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; positive basis trading; hold off on options [15][16]. PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 closed at 4798 (-1.56%) and 4816 (+0.38%) in night trading. Spot prices and basis were reported [16]. - **Related News**: Polyester product sales were weak, PTA and polyester operating rates changed, and some PTA plants planned to restart [16][17]. - **Logic Analysis**: Multiple PTA plant maintenance, improved downstream demand, and a widened supply - demand gap support high - level price oscillation [18]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; positive basis trading; hold off on options [18]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 closed at 4461 (-1.00%) and 4503 (+0.94%) in night trading. Spot and futures basis were reported [19]. - **Related News**: Polyester product sales were weak, and the ethylene glycol operating rate decreased [19]. - **Logic Analysis**: Maintenance tightened supply, and improved demand is expected to lead to a better supply - demand pattern and port de - stocking [19]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold off on options [20]. Short - Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 closed at 6570 (-0.82%) and 6586 (+0.24%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [20]. - **Related News**: Polyester product sales were weak, and downstream operating rates changed [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Follow the trend of polyester raw materials and oscillate at high levels [21]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [21]. PR (Bottle - Chip) - **Market Review**: PR2507 closed at 6116 (-1.35%) and 6140 (+0.39%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [21]. - **Related News**: Polyester bottle - chip factory export prices were adjusted [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: New production capacity increases supply pressure, but demand is supported, and prices are expected to oscillate at high levels [22]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [22]. Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2506 closed at 7739 (-0.09%) and 7808 (+0.89%) in night trading. Spot prices and basis were reported [23]. - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates changed [23]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, but market buying interest weakens at high prices. Future trends depend on multiple factors [23]. - **Trading Strategy**: High - level oscillation for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [24]. Polyolefins - **Market Review**: L2509 closed at 7298 (-0.56%) and 7271 (-0.37%) in night trading; PP2509 closed at 7161 (-0.44%) and 7140 (-0.29%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [25]. - **Related News**: Operating rates, inventory levels, and market rumors were reported [25][26]. - **Logic Analysis**: New production capacity exerts pressure, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the medium term [26]. - **Trading Strategy**: Oscillation in the short term, bearish in the medium term for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [27]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: SH509 closed at 2567 (+1.46%) and 2541 (-1.01%) in night trading; V2509 closed at 5041 (+1.10%) and 5006 (-0.69%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [28]. - **Related News**: Price adjustments and market changes were reported [29][30]. - **Logic Analysis**: PVC is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term but face an oversupply situation in the long term. Caustic soda is recommended for short - term observation and medium - term short - selling [30][31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold off on spreads and options; short - term strong oscillation and long - term short - selling for PVC; short - term observation and medium - term short - selling for caustic soda [32]. Glass - **Market Review**: The glass 09 contract closed at 1036 (-0.96%) and 1025 (-1.06%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [32]. - **Related News**: Market prices were stable with minor fluctuations, production and inventory data were reported [32][33]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is in surplus, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak in the short term [33]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads and options [34]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The soda ash 09 contract closed at 1330 (-1.1%) and 1323 (-0.5%) in night trading. Spot prices were reported [34][35]. - **Related News**: Market trends, production, inventory, and profit data were reported [35]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is increasing, demand is lackluster, and the 09 contract faces multiple pressures [35]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads; sell both calls and puts for options [36]. Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures closed at 1892 (+0.32%). Spot prices were reported [37]. - **Related News**: Capacity utilization rates changed, and export - related discussions were held [38]. - **Logic Analysis**: Inventories are decreasing, and export policies are favorable [38]. - **Trading Strategy**: Buying on dips for single - sided trading [38]. Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures closed at 2318 (-0.77%). Spot prices were reported [41]. - **Related News**: MTO capacity utilization increased [40]. - **Logic Analysis**: International supply increases, domestic supply is loose, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term and be sold on rebounds in the long term [40]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term observation, long - term selling on rebounds for single - sided trading; hold off on spreads; sell calls for options [42]. Pulp - **Market Review**: The SP 07 contract closed at 5370 (-0.30%). Spot prices were reported [42][44]. - **Related News**: The paper industry showed signs of improvement [44]. - **Logic Analysis**: Prices are expected to oscillate [45]. - **Trading Strategy**: Take profits on long positions in the SP 07 contract; hold off on spreads [45]. Natural Rubber and 20 -号 Rubber - **Market Review**: RU 09 closed at 15075 (-0.10%); NR 07 closed at 12835 (-0.04%). Spot prices were reported [46]. - **Related News**: The European automotive market is stagnant [47]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tire production and inventory data were reported [47]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions in the RU 09 contract and long positions in the NR 07 contract; hold off on spreads and options [48]. Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: BR 07 closed at 12405 (+0.40%). Spot prices were reported [49]. - **Related News**: The European automotive market is stagnant [50]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tire production and inventory data were reported [50]. - **Trading Strategy**: Observe the BR 07 contract; reduce positions in the BR2507 - NR2507 spread; sell the BR2507 put 11200 contract [51][53].

各位老铁好！我是帮主郑重，20年财经老炮儿，专注中长线投资。今儿咱们聊聊人民币汇率这事儿——就在刚刚，人民币兑美元中间价一口气涨破7.2，离 岸汇率更是一度摸到7.18，这可是近三个月来最猛的一次升值。这波行情背后暗藏三大投资机会，咱们得掰开揉碎了看。 先说说这波升值的导火索。昨天中美发布的《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》可是关键——双方互降关税到10%，还建立了定期磋商机制。这就好比两家打架的 邻居突然坐下来喝茶，市场信心一下子就起来了。中国银河宏观团队直接表态，人民币汇率中枢要从7.3移到7.2，高盛更是放话12个月内要到7:1。这可不是 空穴来风，昨天声明发布后，A、H股直接涨回4月初水平，北向资金单日净流入超百亿，这就是真金白银的投票。 中长线来看，人民币升值的底层逻辑更值得关注。中美贸易谈判的实质性进展，让全球资本看到中国经济的韧性。更关键的是，中国财政政策还有加码空 间，如果下半年专项债发行超预期，或者消费刺激政策出台，汇率中枢上移到7.1完全有可能。这就好比盖房子，贸易谈判是打地基，财政政策是添砖加 瓦，地基稳了房子才能盖得高。 最后给大伙提个醒，汇率波动从来不是单边行情。现在市场预期很乐观，但美联储 ...

纸浆周报 2025年05月第2周 大宗商品研究所 潘盛杰 投资咨询从业证号：Z0014607 木片下跌成纸累库，关注短期超跌机会 ◼ 目前纸浆的基本面不太乐观。从上游来看，木片成本出现下滑，像CME木材期货结算价格下跌，俄罗斯木制品商业信心指数下降，针叶木片进口量增加，木片 木粒进口价值指数也下滑。下游方面，成纸库存不断积压，3月国内造纸业产成品存货环比增加，达到764.5亿元，同比上升4.5%，并且已经连续12个月呈逐月 增加态势；同时，3月美国纸品批发商库销比环比上升至1.06%，同比增加5.8%，连续10个月呈逐月上升态势，这些情况都对浆价产生了下行压力。 ◼ 不过，也可以从其他角度来分析浆价短期内是否会触底。 ◼ 阔叶浆仍有望相对企稳，支撑纸浆整体估值回升。 GALAXYFUTURES 1 ➢ 若不考虑基本面因素，只看价格周期规律，从1990年至今的7年周期里的第1年（1990年、1997年、2004年、2011年、2018年和2025年），浆价都会从同比 上涨转为同比下跌，且跌幅一般不会超过-23%。现在浆价同比下跌-19%，从统计角度来看，已经接近低估值水平，可能存在超跌的情况。 ➢ 从国际油价角 ...

Group 1: Report Information - The report is a pulp morning report released by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center on May 8, 2025 [1] Group 2: SP Main Contract Data - The closing price of the SP main contract on May 7, 2025, was 5138.00. The closing prices on May 6, April 30, April 29, and April 28 were 5036.00, 5120.00, 5178.00, and 5344.00 respectively [2] - The converted US dollar prices on these dates were 620.72, 608.94, 615.30, 622.18, and 639.39 respectively [2] - The daily price changes were 2.02542%, -1.64063%, -1.12012%, -3.10629%, and -0.59524% respectively [2] - The Shandong Yinxing basis on these dates was 1072, 1174, 1115, 1072, and 991 respectively, and the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai Yinxing basis was 1062, 1164, 1145, 1107, and 956 respectively [2] Group 3: Pulp Import Data - With a 13% VAT calculation, the import profit for Canadian Golden Lion pulp was -132.72, for Canadian Lion pulp was -1119.32, and for Chilean Yinxing pulp was -600.17 [3] - The port US dollar prices for Canadian Golden Lion, Canadian Lion, and Chilean Yinxing were 840, 820, and 825 respectively, and the Shandong region RMB prices were 6800, 5650, and 6210 respectively [3] Group 4: Pulp Price Averages - From April 28 to May 7, 2025, the national average prices of softwood pulp, hardwood pulp, natural color pulp, and chemi - mechanical pulp remained unchanged at 6073.75, 4810.75, 5415.00, and 3686.25 respectively. The Shandong region average prices also remained unchanged [3] - The cultural paper (double - offset index, double - copper index), packaging paper (white card index), and living paper (living index) prices remained unchanged during this period [3] Group 5: Pulp Profit Margin Data - The profit margins of double - offset paper, double - copper paper, white card paper, and living paper on April 29, 2025, were 9.7264%, 25.5692%, -10.2353%, and 11.3068% respectively. On May 7, they were 10.9038%, 26.4799%, -10.7381%, and 12.5419% respectively, with a change of 0.0000, 0.0000, 0.0000, and -0.6160 respectively [3] Group 6: Pulp Price Spreads - The price spreads between softwood and hardwood, softwood and natural color, softwood and chemi - mechanical, and softwood and waste paper on May 7, 2025, were 2060.00, 810, 2335, and 4634 respectively [3]