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债市基本面点评报告:最长的假期,最热的出行
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-02-23 07:55
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report This year's Spring Festival holiday had unique advantages, including the longest duration in history and a consumption - stimulating activity. It showed excellent performance in multiple dimensions, especially in travel and consumption. The real - estate market showed signs of hitting the bottom, while the film market was dismal. Overseas capital markets had various trends due to factors like Fed's FOMC meeting minutes, geopolitical conflicts, and AI industry development [2][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Travel - The Spring Festival travel rush saw a continuous increase in long - distance travel. The total cross - regional passenger flow from February 2nd to 21st this year increased by 5.4% compared to the same period in 2025 and 26.3% compared to 2019, reaching a record high. The number of passengers in various transportation modes increased by about 5% - 6%. The self - driving travel enthusiasm was significantly boosted, with the national population migration scale index from the 15th day of the twelfth lunar month to the fifth day of the first lunar month increasing by 22.2% this year compared to 2025 [3][9][12]. - The difference in growth rates between the data from the Ministry of Transport and Baidu Migration was likely due to statistical methods. The non - operational passenger volume on roads accounted for 81.3% of the total cross - regional passenger flow, indicating that self - driving was the main mode of travel during the Spring Festival [16][17]. Consumption - Retail, catering, and service consumption were active. The average daily sales of key retail and catering enterprises in the first four days of the holiday increased by 8.6% compared to the same period in 2025, higher than the growth rates during the May Day and National Day holidays in 2025. The consumption of domestic tourism on key platforms increased by 4.5% in the first three days of the holiday. The rental car order volume on key platforms increased by 26%, and the north - south cross - region orders increased by 196% [4][19][22]. - The "trade - in" policy continued to release consumer demand. By February 19th, the trade - in of consumer goods benefited 28.88 million people, driving sales of 198.02 billion yuan. Smart devices maintained high growth, and Hainan's duty - free sales increased rapidly [22]. Film Market The film market continued its dismal performance since 2025, hitting a new low in the Spring Festival season in the past 7 years. As of the afternoon of the sixth day of the first lunar month, the cumulative box office of this year's Spring Festival season was 4.91 billion yuan, and it was unlikely to exceed 6 billion yuan. The number of screenings reached a new high, but the number of movie - goers hit a new low, mainly due to the lack of high - quality works [25]. Real - Estate Market The real - estate market showed a weak rebound at the bottom, with first - tier cities having a stronger rebound than second - and third - tier cities. From the first to the fifth day of the first lunar month, the average daily sales volume of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 1.04 million square meters, a 24.9% increase compared to the same period last year. The transaction and listing prices of second - hand houses in January also showed signs of stabilization. If the trend in the past 1 - 2 months continues, the real - estate sales may have hit the bottom [5][29]. Overseas Capital Markets - Most overseas bond yields declined. The 10 - year US Treasury yield adjusted upwards due to the hawkish FOMC meeting minutes and tariff policy fluctuations. European bond markets generally strengthened under the expectation of easing. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield declined by 10.9bp, while the 10 - year Indian government bond yield increased by 4.8bp [6][32]. - The US dollar index strengthened, and the copper - gold ratio fluctuated weakly. Most overseas commodities rose, with oil and coal prices rising by more than 5%. Precious metals and some agricultural products also had varying degrees of increase [35][37]. - European and American stock markets rose collectively, while Asian stock markets were divided. The US stock market rebounded strongly, and European stock markets followed suit. The South Korean stock market hit a record high, while the Hong Kong and Japanese stock markets were weak. The FTSE A50 index rose 0.3% during the holiday [40].
(新春见闻)饺子馆藏博物馆 老厂房飘咖啡香——东北小城逛吃“新风景”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-23 07:19
Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformation of Jilin City, showcasing new cultural and dining experiences that blend history with modernity, particularly through the establishment of cafes and museums in historical sites [1][3][5]. Group 1: New Cultural Experiences - The 1917 Cafe, located by the Songhua River, serves as a modern gathering place for locals and tourists, reflecting the city's evolving social scene [1][3]. - The Jilin Machinery Manufacturing Bureau Exhibition Hall, established in 1881, now features a cafe that offers a unique "Gaiwan coffee," enhancing visitor experience by combining history with leisure [3][5]. Group 2: Integration of Dining and History - The New Xingyuan Dumpling House, a century-old establishment, incorporates the Jilin History Museum, allowing patrons to enjoy food while engaging with local history through various exhibits [5][7]. - This innovative approach of merging dining spaces with exhibition areas presents a new way for the community to connect with their cultural heritage [5][7]. Group 3: Urban Development and Tourism - The city's initiative to promote itself as a "Museum City" has led to a more integrated experience where exhibitions are part of everyday life, attracting more visitors and enhancing local engagement [7]. - New consumer experiences are emerging in Jilin City, contributing to a vibrant atmosphere that combines cultural depth with everyday life [7].
博贺渔港,马年火热|新春走基层
Nan Fang Nong Cun Bao· 2026-02-23 07:01
"春节期间,每天 都是从早上九点 忙到晚上十一 点。" "酒店全部爆 满!" "天光墟到中午左 右才收市。" 从夜间渔灯闪 烁,到凌晨天光 墟的灯火通明, 从大排档的座无 博贺渔港,马年 火热|新春走基层_ 南方+_南方plus …… 虚席,到全镇游 客爆满,随着博 贺天光墟在2025 年接连"出圈" , 这里的春节热闹 了起来。 博贺天光墟的热闹景象。杨承志 摄 趁天光墟 不一样 的年味 凌晨四五点,当 其他地方的游客 还在惬意的睡梦 中感受假日,博 贺港的天光墟已 是人声鼎沸。这 个多次登上央视 的"海鲜不夜 场",在春节期间 更是焕发出别样 生机。 "春节期间的天光 墟和往常有些不 一样,闭市的时 间都较往常要 晚。"多次因天光 墟登上央视的博 贺主播朱香玲告 诉南方农村报记 者,这是为了迎 合春节期间游客 的需求,让一些 起不了那么早的 游客也能感受购 买"第一鲜"的滋 味。 朱香玲虽然因物 流暂停而暂时关 闭了直播带货, 却依旧如往常一 般穿梭在天光墟 的拥挤人潮 中,"虽然快递不 能发货,但有很 多附近的粉丝求 助我们帮忙代 买。" 天光墟的热闹, 是博贺海鲜的"第 一现场",也成了 吸引八方来客 ...
春节假期海口免税消费热:“游客消费”与“本地消费”双增长
Zhong Guo Xin Wen Wang· 2026-02-23 05:23
春节假期海口免税消费热:"游客消费"与"本地消费"双增长 中新网海口2月23日电 (记者 王子谦)春节假期,海口市同步发力离岛免税与岛内居民日用消费品免税。 海口市商务局23日披露数据显示,假期前七天(2月15日至21日)离岛免税店累计销售额8.82亿元,同比增 长8.6%;日用消费品免税店累计销售额221.6万元。 春节假期,海口市同步发力离岛免税与岛内居民日用消费品免税,以"折扣让利+场景创新"组合举措, 持续放大免税政策效应。 假日期间,海口各大免税店联动发力、优惠齐发,共同激活免税消费市场。海口cdf国际免税城、日月 广场免税店、美兰机场免税店同步推出"马踏福运"新春主题活动,全品类享满额立减、多倍积分、超值 组包等福利,同步发放免税消费券,最高立减4000元;全球精品免税城推出新春礼盒派送、会员专享折 扣、满减让利等活动;深免海口观澜湖免税城推出酒水一口价、满额优惠等新春促销。 2月17日,市民游客在cdf海口国际免税城观看舞狮表演。cdf海口国际免税城 供图 海口市商务局介绍,春节假期该市依托海南自贸港政策优势,聚焦市民游客多元消费需求,统筹做好市 场供应与促消费工作,消费市场呈现"稳中有升、活力 ...
评中国|新春消费“马力全开”,经济发展跑出“加速度”
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2026-02-23 04:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the vibrant consumer activity during the Spring Festival, reflecting strong economic growth and consumer confidence in China [1][2][3] - The Spring Festival holiday lasted from February 15 to February 23, totaling 9 days, allowing for more leisurely arrangements for family gatherings and travel [1] - Payment transactions processed by UnionPay and NetLink reached 4.931 billion on New Year's Eve, marking a 21.64% increase compared to the previous year, indicating a robust consumer market [1] Group 2 - There is a noticeable shift in consumer preferences towards green, smart, and health-oriented products during the Spring Festival, indicating a trend of consumption upgrading [2] - The average daily cross-regional movement of people during the holiday is expected to reach 299 million, potentially setting a new record for the Spring Festival [2] - Hotel accommodation revenue increased by 32.7%, and car rental orders surged by 54%, demonstrating an extended travel radius and a broader reach of the Spring Festival consumption boom [2] Group 3 - Government policies have played a crucial role in supporting the festive market, including measures to ensure the supply and price stability of essential goods [3] - The "New Spring Shopping" campaign, initiated by the Ministry of Commerce and nine other departments, included the distribution of consumer vouchers and subsidies, effectively stimulating market enthusiasm [3] - By February 19, the consumption upgrade program benefited 28.88 million people, generating sales of 198.02 billion, showcasing the successful conversion of consumer intent into actual purchasing power [3]
国泰海通证券:新春经济温和修复
Ge Long Hui· 2026-02-23 03:42
春节出行和消费市场呈温和回升、层次鲜明特征,政策聚焦扩内需优结构,实体、物价、流动性各维度 数据表现分化。春运前19天跨区域人员流动日均2.48亿人次、同比增5.1%,水运成增长亮点,出行市场 进入常态化周期;商品消费依托政策与消费升级实现量价回升,智能产品成亮点,服务消费中旅游表现 亮眼,电影消费受供给质量影响表现平淡。近两周政策围绕扩内需稳增长、优结构强创新双线发力,兼 顾短期与中长期发展。实体端内需待振外需亮眼,生产分化,基建资金充裕但项目短缺问题的仍存,节 前停工早于往年,出口仍有韧性或对经济起到托底作用,生产分化持续;物价上CPI小幅上涨、PPI整体 平稳;流动性保持合理充裕,人民币持续升值。 本文来自格隆汇专栏:梁中华宏观研究 作者:李林芷、邵睿思、梁中华 投资要点 风险提示:贸易局势不确定性,国内需求修复不及预期。 1、春节:出行和消费温和改善 2026年春节出行和消费市场呈现出温和回升、层次鲜明的运行特征,商品消费托底、服务消费需求主 导,新质生产力向消费端的落地转化,更成为此次春节消费的亮眼新增长点。 人员流动:长假支撑下需求进一步释放,出行结构多元升级。国内春运已从过去的"单向返乡大迁徙" ...
招商宏观:PPI同比Q2转正概率显著增加
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-23 03:20
文 | 招商宏观张静静团队 核心观点 国内方面,或因天气原因,春节假期出行需求对相关消费拉动明显;春节假期原油等全球定价商品价格中枢保持强势,PPI同比于 Q2转正概率进一步增加。 海外方面,1)美最高院裁定特朗普关税非法,裁决结果出来后特朗普立即采取122关税征收150天的15%临时进口关税,2月24日 生效。2)美国Q4实际GDP环比折年率1.4%,预期2.8%,前值4.4%。投资是主要亮点,由0.8%升至2.6%。3)美联储1月纪要显示 内部分歧加大,总体来看,官员对就业市场的担忧有所减轻,而对通胀的担忧则有所增加。 资产方面,预计节后国内资本市场除关注春晚题材外,仍将加大对通胀(PPI)方向的配置。值得注意的是,即便国际油价受美伊 局势影响,但其价格中枢也将继续保持上移态势,上调WTI油价全年均值至65-70美元/桶区间。 1、春节经济数据看点:1)出行:春节居民出行意愿高涨,全国迁徙指数显著高于2019及2025年,自驾公路出行占主导,腊月二 十五至正月初四,全社会跨区域流量同比增长7.55%;国内出游占主导,出入境游进一步活跃,赴日旅行人数骤减;重点旅游地区 的游客数量、收入增长可观;2)票房:出 ...
齐鲁年味里藏着哪些消费新潮?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-23 02:52
市集带火新年货,乡村游有了新玩法,看剧观影成新年俗……这个春节,大众日报·大众新闻推出"齐鲁年味·消费新潮"系列报道,通过一个个 鲜活具体的故事,生动展现山东春节消费市场的新特点、新趋势。 赶年集,赶出新风尚 过去赶集,拼的是脚力;今年赶集,可能要拼网速。在邹平,当地供销社依托17处镇街的供销超市等销售渠道启动了"供销年货大集",把直播 间搬进了大集现场。 在潍坊青州古城,一家按照二十世纪七八十年代供销社门市部场景还原的"供销社古城店"成了"网红打卡地"。有人排队进店买了一包怀旧包装 的桃酥,拍照发朋友圈:"这个我在奶奶家见过。" 另一个有趣的现象是:大集,正在成为年轻人的"社交货币"。打开朋友圈、抖音、小红书等,春节前的关键词除了"年终总结""返乡",还多 了"大集打卡"。有人晒糖葫芦,有人晒春联摊,还有人晒和非遗代表性传承人的合影。对很多年轻人来说,赶年集考虑的不是"家里缺什 么""过年要备什么",而是"什么好吃""什么有意思""什么值得发一条朋友圈"。 非遗好物热销,年味打包带回家 2月17日,正月初一,大明湖畔热闹起来。数十个非遗手作、美食档口一字排开,舞龙队伍穿街而过,年味在人潮与锣鼓声中迅速升温。 ...
用年轻人的方式吸引年轻人
Hai Nan Ri Bao· 2026-02-23 02:13
——看海南春节消费新趋势③ 需求牵引的时代,谁能抓住年轻人的喜好,谁就能获得流量。对于年轻人的需求、喜好,海南也积 极捕捉、迎合,系列文旅活动新意十足。比如,澄迈、临高、乐东等地的乡村排球、篮球赛成为新 的"村晚",气氛比市集还热闹;正月初五,六台央视春晚同款人形机器人亮相三亚蜈支洲岛,化身新春 送福官与游客互动…… 用年轻人的方式吸引年轻人 今年,海南春节旅游,年轻化是一大趋势。其中,一个显著现象,就是越来越多年轻人当起"春节 主理人",以悦己、个性的姿态,给春节消费带来新变化。 比如,年轻人掌勺年夜饭,端上了"东西南北"融合创意大菜,文昌鸡、鱿鱼、汤粉等有了新拼盘, 口味和寓意兼具;再如,年轻人主理春节仪式,在海口海甸岛,自发组成的摄影小分队,为养老院的爷 爷奶奶们拍摄一组照片,以善意和独特仪式感,给老人们留下了一个难忘的春节…… 如果游客到海口白沙门公园游玩,就有机会邂逅一家由美国的设计师谢敏主理的"海岛乐趣"小店。 她在这里给千年黎锦当"翻译",通过紧跟潮流的的创作,给发夹、耳环、冰箱贴等充满生活气息的小物 件,着上了黎族传统纹样,获得很多游客驻足观赏。 畅玩海南,就会发现,从年夜饭,到民宿、茶饮,再 ...
春节消费,“马”力十足!
Zhong Guo Zheng Quan Bao - Zhong Zheng Wang· 2026-02-23 00:33
"难得有这么长的假期,我们早早就做好了自驾去大同的攻略。这次我们逛了云冈石窟、华严寺,大同古城里,到处张灯结彩,非常有过年的氛围。"林女 士告诉记者。 今年春节,和林女士一样选择旅行过年的人不在少数,多地迎来旅游高峰。 湖北省文旅厅数据显示,截至2月20日,春节假期前六天,全省A级旅游景区累计接待游客1502.41万人次,同比增长12.41%。 成都市文化广电旅游局数据显示,春节前三天(2月15日至2月17日),全市累计接待外地游客296.3万人次,按可比口径增长6.5%;A级景区累计接待游 客387.8万人次,景区门票收入2313.5万元。 春节假期,文旅市场持续升温,带动旅游配套消费走高;惠民政策精准发力,"国补"落地、有奖发票试点等以"真金白银"撬动消费潜力持续释放。浓厚的 年味与强劲的消费活力相互交融,让人们在欢度佳节的同时,尽享消费便利与实惠。 文旅市场持续火热 游览云冈石窟、大同古城,排队吃网红刀削面,再买上一些醋带回家……今年春节,家住北京的林女士和家人,在山西大同旅行过年。 图片来源:美团旅行 美团旅行数据显示,截至2月22日,2月第一周以来,河南开封万岁山大宋武侠城、开封清明上河园庙会热度环 ...