发期货页 场。在任何 何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见并不构成肤 发期货特定客户及其他专业人士，版权归广发期货所有，未经广发期货 分析方法: 具附属 经常主要将经济 网 哈自拍 下得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为"广发期货" | 油脂产业期现日报 | | --- | | 2026年2月2日 Z0019938 | | 原 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 江苏均价 8670 8790 -120 -1.37% 现价 | | 期份 Y2605 8282 8382 -100 -1.19% | | 募差 Y2605 388 408 -20 -4.90% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏5月 05+400 05 + 410 -10 - | | 仓单 25960 0 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | 1月30日 1月29日 涨跌 涨跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 9240 9370 -130 -1.39% | | 期价 P2605 9240 9362 -122 -1.30% | | 基差 P2605 0 8 -8 -100.00% | | 现货基差报价 广 ...

豆粕周报 2026 年 2 月 2 日 多空因素交织 连粕整体震荡 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 11 黄蕾 ⚫ 上周，CBOT美豆3月合约跌3.25收于1064.25美分/蒲式 耳，跌幅0.30%；豆粕05合约涨16收于2767元/吨，涨幅 0.58%；华南豆粕现货涨20收于3120元/吨，涨幅0.65%； 菜粕05合约涨52收于2287元/吨，涨幅2.33%；广西菜粕 现货涨30收于2460元/吨，涨幅1.23%。 ⚫ 国内连粕主力周内冲高回落，在供应宽松格局下，上方 空间受到压制。一是阿根廷产区干旱预期炒作情绪升 温，叠加前半周国内商品市场多 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium - long term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy for the stock index is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, the economic recovery momentum's sustainability needs observation, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. - For precious metals, temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude due to multiple factors [13]. - For non - ferrous metals, although there are short - term pressures, some metals may stabilize in the future [16][19]. - For black building materials, the market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations [34]. - For energy chemicals, different strategies such as taking profit on rallies, short - selling, etc. are proposed for different products [61][65]. - For agricultural products, different strategies are given according to the supply - demand situation of different products, such as short - selling on rebounds, waiting for callbacks to buy, etc. [84][92] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: Trump nominated Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair, China's January 2026 manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, down 0.8 ppts from the previous month, and precious metals tumbled [2]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips in the long - run as policies support the capital market, but pay attention to short - term market rhythms [4]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts had different price changes on Friday. The government emphasized the economic work in 2026, and the 2025 national general public budget revenue decreased by 1.7% compared to 2024 [5]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum's sustainability is uncertain, and the bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate. Pay attention to the impact of the stock market, government bond supply, and inflation expectations [8]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Gold and silver prices plunged due to Warsh's nomination and other factors. The short - term dollar is expected to remain strong, and emerging markets may face capital outflows and currency depreciation [9]. - **Strategy**: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude. The reference range for the Shanghai gold main contract is 950 - 1160 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai silver main contract is 18000 - 22450 yuan/kilogram [13]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by geopolitical and Fed news, the copper price fell on Friday. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic inventory increased [15]. - **Strategy**: Although there are short - term pressure factors, the copper price is expected to stabilize gradually. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 102000 - 106000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 12600 - 13500 dollars/ton [16]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The aluminum price fell on Friday. Domestic inventory increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [17]. - **Strategy**: If the precious - metal volatility decreases and domestic inventory performs better than the seasonality, the aluminum price is expected to stabilize. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24300 - 25000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 3080 - 3180 dollars/ton [19]. Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The zinc price followed the sector. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [20]. - **Lead**: The lead industry situation is weak. Pay attention to the impact of the ISM manufacturing PMI data on February 2nd [21]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price has a large short - term decline risk. It is recommended to sell on rallies. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 12.0 - 15.0 million yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 1.6 - 1.8 million dollars/ton [22]. - **Tin**: The tin price may have a large short - term correction risk. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 370000 - 430000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 47000 - 51000 dollars/ton [24]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The lithium price has accelerated its decline. It is recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange carbonate lithium main contract is 136000 - 158000 yuan/ton [26]. - **Alumina**: The alumina price is expected to decline in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2700 - 2950 yuan/ton [28]. - **Stainless Steel**: Maintain a bullish view. It is recommended to lightly build long positions around 14000 yuan/ton. The reference range for the main contract is 13800 - 14700 yuan/ton [30]. - **Casting Aluminum Alloy**: The short - term price is supported by supply - side disturbances [32]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased on Friday. The inventory of rebar is accumulating, while that of hot - rolled coil is slightly decreasing [34]. - **Strategy**: The black - building materials market is in a bottom - game stage with short - term range - bound fluctuations. Pay attention to inventory changes, plate - demand recovery, and "dual - carbon" policies [34]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron - ore main contract price fell on Friday. The port inventory is at a high level, and the steel - mill inventory is increasing [35]. - **Strategy**: The iron - ore price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to steel - mill restocking and iron - water production rhythms [36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke fluctuated on January 30th. The coking - coal price is in a rebound cycle, and the coke price is approaching a long - term downward trend line [37]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Pay attention to market - sentiment fluctuations [41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The glass price increased on Friday, and the inventory decreased. The market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1025 - 1125 yuan/ton [42][43]. - **Soda Ash**: The soda - ash price increased on Friday, and the inventory increased. The market is expected to have a weak and stable fluctuation in the short - term. The reference range for the main contract is 1160 - 1250 yuan/ton [44][46]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon decreased on January 30th. The prices of both are in an oscillatory state [47]. - **Strategy**: The future market is affected by the overall market sentiment and cost - supply factors. Pay attention to manganese - ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [49][50]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial - silicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the implementation of the large - factory production - reduction plan [51][52]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon price fell on Friday. The supply is expected to contract in the first quarter, and the futures market is expected to be under pressure. Pay attention to terminal - demand feedback and policy adjustments [53][54]. Energy Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber market has large price fluctuations. The long and short sides have different views. The tire - enterprise开工率 has different changes, and the inventory is increasing [56][57]. - **Strategy**: Trade according to the short - term disk, set stop - losses, and consider building positions by buying the NR main contract and short - selling the RU2609 contract [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The crude - oil main contract price increased, and the inventories of some refined oils changed. The gasoline inventory increased, while the diesel and fuel - oil inventories decreased [59]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [61]. Other Energy Chemicals - **Methanol**: The current price has priced in most of the geopolitical premium, and the upside space is under pressure [63]. - **Urea**: The import window is opened, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended to short - sell on rallies [65]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The pure - benzene price increased, and the styrene price decreased. The non - integrated profit of styrene has been repaired, and it is recommended to gradually take profit [66][68]. - **PVC**: The PVC market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand. Pay attention to changes in production capacity and开工率 [69][70]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene - glycol market has a high load and high inventory. The supply - demand situation needs to be improved through production reduction [71][72]. - **PTA**: The PTA market is in the Spring - Festival inventory - accumulation stage. Pay attention to the risk of processing - fee correction and mid - term long - position opportunities [73][74]. - **Para - Xylene**: The PX market is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. The mid - term pattern is good, and pay attention to long - position opportunities following the crude - oil price [75][76]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The PE futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season [77][79]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The PP futures price fell. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is seasonally fluctuating. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [80][81]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The pig price mainly increased over the weekend. The supply is large in the short - term, and the demand is relatively stable [83]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell on rebounds in the short - term and pay attention to the long - term support level [84]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The egg price generally decreased over the weekend. The supply is normal, and the demand is weak [85]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contract may oscillate weakly, and the far - month contract may continue to correct its valuation. It is recommended to short - sell [86]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein - meal futures price fell on Friday. The domestic soybean and soybean - meal inventories decreased. The overall balance sheet is better than that of the 2024/25 season [87][89]. - **Strategy**: The protein - meal price may be bottoming out [89]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil - and - fat futures price fell on Friday. The Malaysian palm - oil production decreased in January, and the domestic three - major oil inventories decreased [91][92]. - **Strategy**: Wait for a callback and then try to go long [92]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The sugar futures price fluctuated on Friday. The Brazilian and Indian sugar productions had different changes, and China's sugar imports increased [93]. - **Strategy**: Wait for the international sugar price to rebound after the northern - hemisphere harvest in February. Temporarily wait and see in the domestic market [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The cotton futures price fell on Friday. The spinning - mill开机率 decreased, and the global cotton production and consumption have different changes [96][97]. - **Strategy**: The cotton price has room to rise in the long - term. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities before the Spring Festival [98].

隐含波动率作为期权定价的核心变量，是衡量市场对未来价格不确定性预期的"情绪温度计"与"风险标尺"。 白糖作为典型的强周期、政策敏感型农产品，其价格深受国内产销节奏、进口情况、主产区天气以及ICE原糖外盘联动等多重因 素扰动，使得IV呈现出高度的事件驱动性、敏感性与前瞻性。往往在标的价格显著异动前，就已通过权利金变化提前反映潜在风 险溢价。尤其自2025年白糖系列期权上市以来，流动性改善进一步提升了隐含波动率对短期信息的反应效率。当前研判白糖系列 期权市场，需系统聚焦三大维度：一是对比历史波动率与隐含波动率的溢价水平，识别市场是否过度恐慌或过于兴奋；二是观察 IV期限结构，厘清市场对近期事件冲击与中长期供需格局的预期分化；三是分析波动率曲面的偏斜形态，揭示虚值看涨与看跌期 权间的风险定价差异，捕捉情绪极端值。综合这三方面特征，不仅能客观评估期权价格的相对贵贱，更能为波动率套利、方向性 策略及产业套保方案提供策略依据。 IV与HV对比 在期权分析中，隐含波动率（IV）与历史波动率（HV）的对比，是衡量市场情绪与期权定价相对"贵贱"最为核心的标尺。 历史波动率与隐含波动率 历史波动率（HV）是回溯性指标，基于白糖期 ...

农产品早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/02 | 玉米/淀粉 | | | | 玉米 | | | | | 淀粉 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 长春 | 锦州 | 潍坊 | 蛇口 | 基差 | 贸易利润 进口盈亏 | 黑龙江 | 潍坊 | 基差 | 加工利润 | | 2026/01/26 | 2190 | 2300 | 2260 | 2440 | 7 | 0 318 | 2750 | 2820 | 97 | -90 | | 2026/01/27 | 2190 | 2300 | 2270 | 2440 | 17 | 0 325 | 2750 | 2820 | 155 | -92 | | 2026/01/28 | 2190 | 2290 | 2280 | 2440 | 16 | 10 328 | 2750 | 2820 | 165 | -92 | | 2026/01/29 | 2190 | 2290 | 2300 | 2430 | 9 | 10 310 | 2750 | 2820 | ...

现 货 价 格 | 日期 | 豆粕江苏 | 菜粕广东 | 豆油江苏 | 棕榈油广州 | 菜油江苏 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2026/01/26 | 3070 | 2430 | 8660 | 9060 | 9990 | | 2026/01/27 | 3070 | 2430 | 8670 | 9210 | 10130 | | 2026/01/28 | 3070 | 2460 | 8740 | 9240 | 10160 | | 2026/01/29 | 3070 | 2480 | 8790 | 9310 | 10240 | | 2026/01/30 | 3050 | 2470 | 8670 | 9200 | 10150 | 蛋 白 粕 基 差 ： 油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2026/02/02 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： Imea：马托格罗索州大豆收割率为25% Imea公布的数据显示，截至1月30日当周，马托格罗索州2025/26年度大豆收割进度已达已播种面积的24.97%，远高 于去年同期的12.20%，也超过过去五年同期平均水平。 本周单周收 ...

宝鸡市发展和改革委员会相关负责人介绍，今年，宝鸡市将继续坚持项目带动，抢抓"十五五"规划 编制和各类扩内需政策机遇，健全完善项目推进工作机制，力争省市重点项目开工率、投资完成率继续 位居全省前列，全年争取各类政策性资金40亿元以上。 1月27日，记者从宝鸡市发展和改革工作会议上获悉：今年，宝鸡市聚焦经济建设中心工作，把高 质量项目建设作为重中之重，全年谋划项目3000个以上、总投资突破2000亿元，465个市级重点项目年 度计划投资586亿元以上。 去年以来，以深化"三个年"活动、聚力打好"八场硬仗"、扎实推动"十项重点任务"为抓手，宝鸡市 发展改革系统全力以赴抓项目、扩投资、稳增长、促转型，多项工作取得显著成效：宝鸡市地区生产总 值增长6%、规上工业增加值增长10%、固定资产投资增长8.6%，"十四五"规划主要目标任务顺利完 成；宝鸡市争取中央和省上政策性资金42.1亿元，47个省级重点项目、419个市级重点项目投资完成率 分别达125.29%、144.54%，项目开工率、投资完成率稳居全省第一。 今年，宝鸡市还将扩大高水平对外开放，推动宝鸡机场主体工程年内全面完成、鄠周眉高速尽快通 车，关环高速公路、31 ...

贵州高速路网日趋完善。展望未来，随着服务区功能持续拓展，"路过经济"将加速转向"落地经济"。期 待服务区从"文化窗口""旅游前哨"，不断升级为带动县域产业、促进城乡融合的"经济接口"，为高质量 发展注入新动能。 "十四五"以来，贵州积极培育以高速公路为纽带、服务区为节点的"路衍经济"。通过融合交通、文旅、 农商等多要素，全省高速公路服务区经营额已超4亿元，形成了效益显著的新业态。渝筑高速上的"长征 国家文化公园·大娄山服务区"，将红色文化深度植入场景，带动红色旅游与消费；西江服务区依托毗邻 千户苗寨的优势，打造文旅枢纽，以"服务区+就业+产业"模式，有效带动村民就近就业与乡村产业发 展；道安高速正安服务区则化身"吉他文化窗口"，并设立乡村振兴服务站，助力白茶、腊肉等农特产品 直达消费者；沪昆高速温泉服务区深度融合苗侗文化，让旅客在休憩中体验非遗魅力，激发消费潜力。 从"开口"到"接口"，高速公路服务区功能拓展，是着眼于县域经济内生动力的"小切口、大文章"。通过 增设连接地方路网的出入口，服务区将从高速公路的"过路点"转变为深入县域的"接入点"。这能直接缩 短工业园区、农业基地、旅游景区与主干道的连接距离，降低 ...

（辽宁日报 记者白琳） 责任编辑：钱炳达 all 72 D ( ( . 80 四级市 考求 -HILL 亚游客服 = 1 / 戏阳加丰农业科技有限 0 AS D （来源：东北新闻网） 春运在即，辽宁农品年货购·"品特产 寻年味"消费促进活动1月31日正式启动。在造化大集，吸引众多市民前来探寻最浓年味、选购特色年货。同时，辽宁 特色农产品首次集中亮相桃仙机场，这种依托交通枢纽宣传推广辽宁特色农产品的方法，旨在借助交通枢纽客群强大辐射力与影响力，为辽宁特色农产品 搭建起一座直通全国市场的展销平台，让更多人领略到辽宁特色农产品的独特魅力。 ...

——行业比较周跟踪（20260124-20260130） 本期投资提示： 证 证券分析师 林丽梅 A0230513090001 linlm@swsresearch.com 刘雅婧 A0230521080001 liuyj@swsresearch.com 郝丹阳 A0230523120002 haody@swsresearch.com 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 王胜 A0230511060001 wangsheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 冯彧 A0230525080001 fengyu@swsresearch.com 2026 年 02 月 01 日 A 股估值及行业中观景气跟踪周报 券 研 究 报 告 相关研究 - 一、A 股本周估值（截至 2026 年 1 月 30 日） ⚫ 1）指数及板块估值比较： ✓ 中证全指（剔除 ST） PE 为 22.5 倍，PB 为 1.9 倍，处于历史 83%和 50%分位； ✓ 上证 50 PE 为 11.7 倍，PB 为 1.3 倍，处于历史 61%和 41%分位； ✓ 沪深 300 PE 为 14 ...