这两项提案是落实欧盟美国联合声明第一部分承诺的必要立法步骤。接下来，欧洲议会和欧盟理事会需 通过普通立法程序批准，相关关税措施方可生效。 （文章来源：央视新闻） 当地时间8月28日，欧盟委员会提出两项立法提案，为落实欧盟与美国关于关税的联合声明迈出关键一 步。据称，这些措施旨在确保美国自8月1日起对欧盟汽车行业实施的关税减让，并进一步推动跨大西洋 贸易和投资关系的稳定与可预见性。 根据提案，欧盟将取消部分美国工业品关税，给予部分海产品和非敏感农产品优惠市场准入，并延长龙 虾免关税待遇。与此同时，美国承诺将欧盟汽车及零部件关税从27.5%降至15%，并自9月1日起对软 木、飞机及零部件、仿制药及化学前体等若干产品实施零关税或近零关税。 ...

美国与其他经济体达成贸易协议的内容与影响 ——当前经济与政策思考 证券研究报告/宏观专题报告 2025 年 08 月 28 日 分析师：杨畅 执业证书编号：S0740519090004 分析师：夏知非 执业证书编号：S0740523110007 Email：xiazf01@zts.com.cn 相关报告 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 近期美国与部分经济体先后达成贸易协议，基于白宫网站发布信息（6 月 17 日英国、 7 月 22 日印度尼西亚、7 月 23 日日本、8 月 21 日欧盟）以及特朗普与白宫官员面向 媒体发布（7 月 3 日越南、7 月 22 日菲律宾、7 月 30 日韩国、泰国、柬埔寨、巴基 斯坦）相关情况梳理（注意：发布情况均为贸易协定概要，最终协议仍待敲定后公布， 细节可能存在变化），涉及内容较多，大致可分为"贸易"与"产业"两大部分。"贸 易"部分又可划分为"对美出口"与"自美进口"两个维度。 以上协议内容所产生的影响并不局限美国与其他经济体之间，而在短期引发全球贸易 格局变形，在中期引发全球产业格局重塑。 风险提示：海外政策风险；地缘政治风险；研究报告中使用的公开资料可能存 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 2025年08月28日 【原油】 隔夜国际油价上行,布伦特10合约涨0.82%。上周美国EIA原油库存超预期下降239.2万桶,汽油及 精炼油库存也录得下降，体现夏季用油高峰尾声需求仍有韧性。布伦特临近70美元/桶已基本定价俄 鸟和谈僵局相关供应风险的利多影响，在地缘风险进一步发酵前原油或转为震荡走势，关注旺季因 素支撑过后原油的再次做空机会。 【责金属】 隔夜美元波动剧烈，贵金属高位震荡。本周特朗普罢免美联储官员加剧美联储独立性担忧冲击美元 信用,被解雇理事库克将提起诉讼。国际金银处于震荡趋势之中继续测试上方关键阻力，中期维持 回调买入多头思路。今日关注美国二季度GDP修正值和周度初请失业金数据。 【铜】 隔夜铜价走低，市场对经济表现仍偏谨慎，同时等待美国PCE指标，且关注特朗普与美联储独立性间 的博弈，美元指数波动快。国内现铜79585元，精铜消费受多省梳理再生铜补贴政策减停而受益， 现需要时间等待国内废铜报价的博弈调整。今日关注社库，整数关胆力强,高位空单持有。 【铝】 氧化铝运行产能处于历史高位，行业库存和上期所仓单均持续上升。供应过剩逐渐显现 ...

很多人也许还记得，2020年前后，中国和澳大利亚的关系一度跌至冰点。彼时，澳方在疫情源头问题上咄咄逼人，中方迅速反制，一道道贸易壁垒接连落 下：大麦加税、葡萄酒反倾销、龙虾滞港、煤炭暂停……一时间，澳大利亚出口商叫苦不迭。 但风向在2023年悄然转变。据《华尔街日报》分析，这场"外交寒潮"从阿尔巴尼斯政府上台后逐步回暖。中国先是恢复煤炭进口，随后在2023年8月取消对 大麦的限制，接着在2024年3月撤销了对葡萄酒的反倾销税。几个月后，龙虾、牛肉、木材等产品也纷纷"解冻"，中澳贸易障碍几乎被一扫而空。 中国商务部数据显示，2023年中澳双边贸易额高达2100亿美元，创下历史新高。仅南澳州对华出口就增长了33%，葡萄酒出口反弹幅度惊人。阿尔巴尼斯的 发声并非偶然，而是对"贸易寒冬"过去后的胜利宣言。 这背后，不只是中国释放善意，更多是中方在全球供应链重组中主动布局。"对美反制"不是全部，中国也在寻找"可靠的替代者"，而澳大利亚恰好踩中了节 奏。 在中美这场"你加我就加"的关税拉锯战中，澳大利亚没有选边站，却拿到了双份红利。 中美贸易战打了六年，谁最惨？美国农民和中国中小企业可能要举手。但谁最开心？答案可能让人意 ...

具有洞察力的投资观点分享，欢迎关注"睿知投资"，并设为"星标"！ 昨天A股迎来了近期最大的跌幅，就会有些人开始发文证明自己看空的正确性了。如果现在的行情都看不清，那真是难赚钱了。 大盘一路上涨，涨到这么高，出现一定幅度的回调也实属非常正常。而且往往在牛市才会比较常见急跌，熊市都是阴跌的，让你 在不知不觉中亏钱的。而牛市的每次大跌其实就是在洗盘，在释放短期的风险，之后该怎么涨还是会怎么涨的。 所以，在老股民眼中一直有一句话叫作"千金难买牛回头"。对于牛市的下跌，不能看成是风险，而应看成是机会，给没有上车或 是中途下车的人提供了新的买入机会。 而今天的行情看似凶险，其实也基本上市场常规操作。早盘高开后，开始跳水，之后就快速的拉起。最终三大指数都实现了大 涨。估计在中途跳水的过程中，有把很多人吓坏了，丢掉了筹码。等下午拉起来又后悔莫及。 今天全市共成交了约3万亿，较昨天稍有缩量，但仍是在3万亿的高位上，说明市场的交易活跃度依然非常高，市场保持强势的走 势。板块层面，上涨比较快是受政策利好的人工智能板块，股王寒武纪继续大涨15.73%，股价再次超过茅台。另外就是农产品和 军工板块表现也不错，都是处于上涨的态势。当然， ...

众所周知，澳大利亚的成功并非因为单纯的运气，而是充分利用了中美两国之间的矛盾，展现了其独特的外交智慧。美国对中国产品施加关税，导致需求重 心逐渐转向其他国家。正是在这一背景下，澳大利亚以价格优势大量进入中国市场，填补了美国被削弱后留下的空白。 不仅如此，美国对澳大利亚在稀土产业链中的角色愈发重视。稀土材料对于现代科技和国防领域至关重要，而澳大利亚正是其中的关键供应国。美国国防部 曾明确表示，保障盟友供应链安全优先于关税利益，因此唐·法雷尔等相关官员也对此做出了积极响应，以确保经济上的互惠互利。 在这个复杂多变的国际环境中，澳大利亚的成功显然来自于其具有独立思考能力的外交政策。阿尔巴尼斯政府并没有陷入对美国的盲目依赖，而是清晰地认 识到，与中国的贸易关系对澳大利亚的重要性。贸易部长唐·法雷尔曾坦言："对华贸易对澳大利亚来说要比对美贸易重要10倍。"这一深刻的观察让澳大利 亚在全球经济竞争中找到了自己的定位。 但对比之下，加拿大的遭遇则是一个惨痛的教训，其因盲目追随美国对华施压而遭到反制，损失惨重。加拿大曾是中国最大油菜籽供应国，而如今的尴尬境 地恰恰反映出明智选择的重要性。 在全球经济大背景下，中美贸易战的持续 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views of the Report - In the financial futures market, the Fed's policy shows marginal loosening, and the dollar index is in a short - term shock pattern. The RMB exchange rate is expected to run below 7.20 in the short term. The stock index adjustment amplitude and duration are to be observed, the treasury bond may rebound further, and the container shipping index may continue to fall or shock, with the risk of low - level rebound for some contracts [1][2][3][4] - In the commodity market, precious metals are expected to be strong in the short - term; copper prices may continue to decline in the short - term; aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term, while alumina is expected to be weak; zinc is in a short - term stalemate; nickel and stainless steel are expected to be strong; tin is slightly strong; lithium carbonate may have short - term rebound opportunities; industrial silicon and polysilicon are in a shock adjustment stage; lead is in a narrow - range shock; steel products are in a weak pattern; iron ore is expected to shock; coking coal and coke have price constraints; silicon iron and silicon manganese have supply pressure; crude oil is recommended to short at high prices; LPG is expected to be weak in the short - term; PTA - PX and MEG - bottle chips are affected by cost and sentiment; PP is in a short - term shock pattern; PE is recommended to buy at low prices; pure benzene and styrene are in a shock - falling pattern; fuel oil is under downward pressure; low - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be long; asphalt is mainly affected by cost; rubber is expected to be in a range - shock pattern; urea is in a pattern with support and suppression; glass, soda ash, and caustic soda are expected to be weak [6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][50][51][52][53][54] Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Financial Futures Macro - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September, and service consumption may become a key area. Industrial enterprise profits are still in negative growth, and the overall domestic economic contradiction remains unchanged. The Fed's policy is marginally loosening, and the dollar index is in a short - term shock pattern [1] RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed down slightly. The Fed's policy and other factors affect the exchange rate. The short - term dollar - RMB spot exchange rate is expected to run below 7.20 [1][2] Stock Index - The stock index fell sharply, with increased trading volume. Due to profit - taking and policy expectations, the short - term adjustment may continue, but the amplitude and duration are to be observed [2][3] Treasury Bond - The treasury bond rebounded. The stock market's high - level adjustment may provide room for the treasury bond to rebound further [3] Container Shipping - The container shipping index futures prices fell. The current spot price situation and market sentiment are negative for the futures price, and there is a risk of low - level rebound for some contracts [3][4] Commodities Precious Metals (Gold & Silver) - The precious metals market was slightly strong. The market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and personnel adjustment. The short - term is expected to be strong, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6][7] Copper - The copper price fell slightly. The dollar index's rebound and demand factors put pressure on the copper price, and the short - term is expected to continue to decline [7][8][9] Aluminum Industry Chain - Aluminum is expected to be strong in the short - term due to policy and demand factors. Alumina is expected to be weak due to supply surplus. Cast aluminum alloy is expected to be strong due to cost support [9][10] Zinc - The zinc price was slightly up. The supply is in a surplus state, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to be in a shock pattern, and an internal - external arbitrage strategy can be considered [10][11][12] Nickel & Stainless Steel - The nickel price rose, and the stainless steel price fell slightly. The market is waiting for a clear signal, and the short - term is expected to be strong, with attention to new energy support [13] Tin - The tin price rose. The supply is relatively tight, and the demand is acceptable. The short - term is expected to be slightly strong [13][14] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price fluctuated. The market is affected by "small essays", and the short - term may have a rebound opportunity, but the medium - long - term supply is still loose [15][16][17] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - The industrial silicon futures price was slightly up, and the polysilicon futures price fell. The market is affected by unverified news, and it is recommended to wait and see or trade with a shock strategy [17][18] Lead - The lead price fell slightly. The supply is weak, and the demand is in a "not - so - prosperous peak season" situation. The short - term is expected to be in a narrow - range shock pattern [19][20] Black Metals Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil - The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil continued to be weak. The supply increased, and the demand decreased. The market is affected by coal supply and steel mill production reduction [21][22] Iron Ore - The iron ore price was relatively stable. The previous premium was small, and the short - term price decline space is limited. It is expected to run in a shock pattern [22][23][24] Coking Coal & Coke - The coking coal price was in a shock pattern, and the coke price had a downward pressure. The market is affected by coal supply, steel mill production reduction, and downstream demand [25][26][27] Silicon Iron & Silicon Manganese - The supply of silicon iron and silicon manganese increased, and the demand was not significantly improved. The price is affected by coal price and market sentiment, and it is recommended to try long at the 60 - day moving average [27][28] Energy & Chemicals Crude Oil - The international crude oil market was highly volatile. The EIA data was positive, but the market lacked a one - way trend. The Chinese SC crude oil was weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [29][30][31] LPG - The LPG price was in a shock pattern. The supply is loose, and the demand is stable. The short - term is expected to be weak [32][33] PTA - PX - The PX - TA prices fluctuated widely. The supply is affected by device news, and the demand is seasonally improved. It is recommended to short the processing fee at high prices and conduct a 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [34][35][36] MEG - Bottle Chips - The ethylene glycol market had both supply and demand growth. The short - term is expected to be in a shock - strong pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [36][37][38] PP - The PP price was in a shock pattern. The supply is under pressure from new capacity, and the demand is gradually recovering. The short - term is expected to continue the shock pattern [38][39][40] PE - The PE price fell slightly. The supply growth is limited, and the demand is expected to increase. It is recommended to buy at low prices, but attention should be paid to the demand recovery [41][42][43] Pure Benzene & Styrene - The pure benzene and styrene prices fell. The supply and demand of pure benzene are in a complex situation, and the supply of styrene is expected to increase, with attention to the inventory and demand [44][45] Fuel Oil - The fuel oil price was under downward pressure. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is acceptable. The market is affected by sanctions and inventory [46][47] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The low - sulfur fuel oil price was in a shock pattern. The supply is expected to decline, and the demand is weak. The short - term is recommended to be long [47][48] Asphalt - The asphalt price was in a shock pattern. The supply is stable, and the demand is affected by weather and funds. The short - term is mainly affected by cost [48][49][50] Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - The rubber price was in a shock pattern. The supply is affected by weather, and the demand is expected to be warm in the third quarter. The short - term is expected to be in a range - shock pattern [50][51][52] Urea - The urea price was in a pattern with support and suppression. The demand is affected by the military parade and export, and the short - term is expected to be in a shock pattern [53] Glass, Soda Ash, Caustic Soda - The soda ash price was in a weak pattern. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The market is affected by inventory and cost [53][54]

据商务部市场运行监测系统显示，8月18日至24日，全国食用农产品市场价格比前一周（环比，下同） 上涨0.5%，生产资料市场价格比前一周下降0.3%。 食用农产品市场：30种蔬菜平均批发价格每公斤4.46元，上涨3.2%，其中西兰花、黄瓜、西葫芦分别上 涨18.9%、10.9%和10.2%。禽产品批发价格小幅上涨，其中鸡蛋、白条鸡分别上涨1.4%和0.5%。水产品 批发价格略有上涨，其中草鱼、大带鱼、鲤鱼分别上涨0.5%、0.5%和0.1%。肉类批发价格略有波动， 其中猪肉每公斤20.05元，下降0.6%，牛肉、羊肉均上涨0.3%。粮油批发价格略有下降，其中豆油、菜 籽油、大米、面粉均下降0.2%，花生油上涨0.1%。6种水果平均批发价格小幅下降，其中葡萄、西瓜、 香蕉分别下降1.1%、1.1%和0.9%。 生产资料市场：钢材价格小幅下降，其中高速线材、螺纹钢、热轧带钢每吨3595元、3411元和3613元， 分别下降1.2%、1.1%和0.6%。基础化学原料价格略有下降，其中聚丙烯、硫酸、甲醇、纯碱分别下降 1.3%、0.7%、0.4%和0.1%。有色金属价格小幅回落，其中锌、铜、铝分别下降0.9%、0.7% ...

豆一关注政策导向，花生持续聚焦天气与需求 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2511合约3935.00元/吨，较前日变化-39.00元/吨，幅度-0.98%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A11+305，较前日变化+39，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：东北市场昨日大豆价格稳中有跌，国储库持续竞拍，对于市场低蛋白现货价格形成制约 ，目前市 场走货一般。现阶段新豆生长较为顺利，市场对于产量多持丰产预期，随着新豆上市临近，叠加国储库陈粮投放， 预计供应压力或将凸显。黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较前一日跌0.01 元/斤；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.11元/斤，较前一日跌0.02元/斤；黑龙江 佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.10元/斤，较前一日跌0.02元/斤；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河 市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白 中粒塔粮装车报价2.19元/斤，较前一日平；黑龙江绥化海伦市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.20元/ 斤，较 ...

据报道，近期，美国和欧盟27国达成新贸易框架的消息突然密集刷屏，又把全球舆论推上了新一轮高 潮。 美国联合欧盟27国达成了新贸易框架。表面上看，两大经济体终于愿意坐下来缓和关税战，实则细节里 都是"美国优先"的套路。美国给欧盟输美商品贴上了15%的高关税标签，涉及汽车、药品、半导体芯 片、木材等关键产业。只有极少数稀缺资源、飞机零部件、仿制药等被豁免。欧盟这边承诺取消对美国 产工业品的关税，还要为美国的海产品、农产品大开方便之门。 美国的算盘其实一目了然。高关税直接把欧洲出口企业逼到墙角，逼着欧洲主动让利、加大采购，甚至 投资美国本土产业链。荷兰国际集团经济学家布热斯基直言，这份协议其实就是"损失控制文件"，与其 说是平等互利，不如说是美国的胜利、欧洲的无奈。美联储都承认，关税政策大头还是美国企业和消费 者买单，但美国政府宁愿牺牲内需、也要捏住欧洲的脖子。 欧盟高层嘴上说"可预测性""避免贸易战"，底下其实一片质疑。很多人担心，这种对美让步会进一步加 深欧洲对美国的依赖。协议里大部分内容都没有法律约束力，能不能落实还是两说。美国最高法院随时 可以推翻协议内容，欧洲议会和27个成员还得"走程序"，这可不是几周几 ...