1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soybean Meal**: With supply-demand being loose and costs rising, the price center of soybean meal moves upward. Despite a slowdown in Brazilian shipments and cost increases due to rising crude oil prices, recent acceleration in shipments has put pressure on prices. Attention should be paid to Brazilian shipments and auctions [6]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by the tense situation in the Middle East, oil prices are oscillating at a high level. Although there is a strong expectation of inventory reduction for Malaysian palm oil in March and support from crude oil, the impact of US biodiesel policies and the expected increase in the planting area of new US soybeans is neutral to bearish. The supply of global and domestic oils and fats will be seasonally looser in the second quarter, limiting the upside space. It is expected that oil prices will oscillate at a high level in the short term [73]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soybean Meal 3.1.1 Market Performance - As of March 19, the spot price in East China was 3,160 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the M2605 contract closed at 2,937 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 92 yuan/ton; the basis price was 05+230 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 40 yuan/ton. Domestic spot supply-demand has become looser, and the basis has weakened [6][8]. 3.1.2 Supply - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean production reached 427 million tons, with Brazil producing 180 million tons and Argentina 48 million tons. The USDA's February outlook forum estimated that the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season will be 85 million acres, an increase of 3.8 million acres year-on-year. China's soybean imports in the 2025/26 season are estimated to be 112 million tons. Due to slow Brazilian shipments and seasonal destocking in China, the destocking of domestic soybeans and soybean meal from March to April is expected to continue [6]. 3.1.3 Demand - In the 2025/26 season, global soybean demand reached 424 million tons, an increase of 11 million tons year-on-year. In China, the high demand for soybeans is supported by the high inventory of pigs and poultry. However, current losses in pig farming may lead to a reduction in production capacity, and soybean meal demand in the fourth quarter may be lower than expected. As of March 20, the national soybean inventory was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from the previous week, and the soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the previous week [6]. 3.1.4 Cost - The planting cost of US soybeans in the 2026/27 season is 1,218 cents per bushel. If crude oil prices continue to rise, planting costs are expected to increase. Based on the current US soybean price of 1,150 cents, a premium of 150 cents, and an oil-to-meal ratio of 2.9, the theoretical price of soybean meal is 2,980 yuan/ton. The import crushing profit is improving, with the crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for April - May shipments at around 100 yuan/ton [6]. 3.2 Oils and Fats 3.2.1 Market Performance - As of the week of March 27, the palm oil main 05 contract rose 50 yuan/ton to 9,768 yuan/ton; the soybean oil main 05 contract rose 60 yuan/ton to 8,688 yuan/ton; the rapeseed oil main 05 contract rose 1 yuan/ton to 9,877 yuan/ton. The spot price of 24-degree palm oil in Guangzhou decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9,650 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 4 soybean oil in Zhangjiagang increased by 130 yuan/ton to 8,940 yuan/ton; the spot price of Grade 3 rapeseed oil in Fangchenggang decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 10,200 yuan/ton [73][75]. 3.2.2 Palm Oil - SPPOMA reported that the palm oil production in Malaysia from March 1 - 25 decreased by 11.21% month-on-month, while MPOA reported a 0.92% increase from March 1 - 20. Exports improved significantly, with a 38.4 - 50.42% increase from March 1 - 25. However, Indian refiners have suspended vegetable oil imports recently, and the Ramadan has ended, with the palm oil production season approaching in April. In China, the import profit of palm oil has deteriorated, and the estimated arrival of palm oil in April is 60,000 tons, a significant decrease from the monthly average of 200,000 tons in January - February. As of the week of March 20, the domestic palm oil inventory decreased to 808,200 tons [73]. 3.2.3 Soybean Oil - Trump's visit to China in May is expected to boost China's purchase of US soybeans. However, the EPA's biodiesel blending volume for 2026 - 27 did not exceed market expectations, which is negative for the demand of US soybean oil for biodiesel. The market is also concerned about the crop planting intention report at the end of March, with a high probability of an increase in the US soybean planting area in the 2026/27 season. In South America, the USDA's March report maintained the Brazilian soybean production at 180 million tons and slightly reduced the Argentine soybean production to 48 million tons. In China, the seasonal decline in soybean arrivals in the first quarter is beneficial for the destocking of soybean oil. As of the week of March 20, the domestic soybean oil inventory slightly decreased to 860,700 tons. However, after the consultation between China and Brazil on soybean quarantine issues, the number of Brazilian soybean shipments to China has gradually increased, and the destocking of soybean oil inventory will be limited in April - May [73]. 3.2.4 Rapeseed Oil - The war in the Middle East has pushed up international crude oil prices and shipping costs, increasing the cost of imported rapeseed. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has hindered the transportation of Dubai rapeseed oil to China, and the customs clearance time for Russian crude rapeseed oil has been extended, resulting in a tight supply of domestic rapeseed oil. However, China's comprehensive import tax on Canadian rapeseed has been reduced to 15%, and the import profit has turned positive. It is expected that 20 ships of imported rapeseed will arrive in China from April - June, leading to a looser supply of rapeseed and rapeseed oil in the second quarter. As of the week of March 20, the coastal rapeseed inventory was 128,000 tons, and the domestic rapeseed oil inventory was 281,000 tons [73].

Report Information - Report Title: Agricultural Products Morning Report - Report Date: March 30, 2026 - Research Team: Agricultural Products Team of the Research Center 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views - Corn: In the short term, the supply of corn remains tight as the grain sources gradually concentrate on traders, supporting the price. However, the increased supply of policy - based wheat and the expected increase in market circulation may suppress the price. In the long term, attention should be paid to import and domestic auction policies due to the supply gap [3]. - Starch: High prices affect starch sales, causing the price to decline. In the short term, tight raw material supply supports price increases, but weak downstream consumption may suppress the price. In the long term, downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes are crucial for pricing [3]. - Sugar: Internationally, the fundamentals are slightly stronger with India's lower production estimate and ISO's lower global surplus forecast. Crude oil prices also impact the valuation. Domestically, the market is bullish after the festival, but there is hedging pressure [6]. - Cotton: Low initial inventory offsets most of the production increase. With expanding textile production, good downstream profits, and favorable consumption policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. A decrease in Xinjiang's planting area makes long - term buying suitable [7]. - Eggs: The slowdown in chicken culling may be due to farmers' active delay. The increase in chick - rearing in 1 - 2 months and positive sentiment in 3 - 4 months slow down capacity reduction. Rising feed costs compress profits, and an inverse spread pattern is considered [10]. - Apples: The apple market is stable, with good - quality goods being the main trading items. The demand in the western region is weak, while the demand for good - quality goods in Shandong is increasing. The sales in the sales area are normal [11]. - Pigs: The weekend pig price rebounded slightly. There is still pressure on near - term production and inventory reduction. The market is affected by high supply, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [11]. 3. Summary by Product Corn/Starch - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the price in Jinzhou decreased by 10, the base difference decreased by 3, and the starch base difference increased by 10 [2]. - **Analysis**: Short - term price support comes from tight supply, but wheat supply and increased circulation may suppress the price. Starch price is affected by raw material supply and downstream consumption [3]. Sugar - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the spot prices in Liuzhou, Nanning, and Kunming remained unchanged, and the base difference decreased by 1 [4][5]. - **Analysis**: Internationally, the fundamentals are stronger, and crude oil affects the valuation. Domestically, there is hedging pressure [6]. Cotton/Cotton Yarn - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the price of 3128 cotton increased, and the import profit and 32S spinning profit decreased [7]. - **Analysis**: Low initial inventory and good demand prospects make long - term buying suitable [7]. Eggs - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the prices in various producing areas increased, and the base difference increased by 209 [9]. - **Analysis**: Slow culling, increased chick - rearing, and rising feed costs affect the market, with an inverse spread pattern considered [10]. Apples - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the price of Shandong 80 first - and second - grade apples remained unchanged, and the national, Shandong, and Shaanxi inventories decreased [11]. - **Analysis**: The market is stable, with different situations in different regions [11]. Pigs - **Price Data**: From March 23 to 27, the prices in various producing areas decreased, and the base difference decreased by 230 [11]. - **Analysis**: There is short - term price rebound, but long - term pressure from high supply, and attention should be paid to capacity reduction [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Last week, the CBOT May soybean contract fell 1 to close at 1159.5 cents per bushel, a decline of 0.09%; the May bean meal contract fell 92 to close at 2937 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.04%; the spot price of soybean meal in South China fell 120 to 3280 yuan per ton, a decline of 3.53%; the May rapeseed meal contract fell 108 to close at 2315 yuan per ton, a decline of 4.46%; the spot price of rapeseed meal in Guangxi fell 110 to 2330 yuan per ton, a decline of 4.51% [4][7]. - U.S. soybeans fluctuated. Trump postponed his visit to China. U.S. soybean export sales generally met USDA targets. South American export supply increased, having an advantage in cost - effectiveness. It is difficult for China to significantly increase purchases of old - crop U.S. soybeans in the future. The U.S. biodiesel policy was implemented, basically in line with expectations, providing support for the crushing demand. The conflict in the Middle East continued, and as the North American planting season approached, the prices of production materials such as fertilizers and fuels increased, raising the planting cost. In China, the prices of both soybean meal and rapeseed meal declined. China relaxed the weed inspection standards for Brazilian soybeans. The arrival of soybeans in China in April will increase, and the supply will become more abundant. The crushing operation rate of oil mills decreased slightly, the inventory reduction of soybean meal was slow, and the trading volume of soybean meal was light [4][7]. - The continuous spread of the war in the Middle East led to a strong oil price. The rising costs of production materials such as fertilizers and diesel increased the planting cost of agricultural products. The intention - area report will be released at the end of the month. The increase in production cost is more conducive to soybean planting. Attention should be paid to the expected difference after the report is released. The U.S. biodiesel policy was released, basically in line with expectations; the export sales progress met the target. With the relaxation of Brazilian soybean quarantine, the inventory reduction of soybean meal in domestic oil mills was slow, and the spot price declined. The arrival of soybeans in April will gradually increase, and the supply will become more abundant. Attention should be paid to the crushing operation rate and supply situation of oil mills. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will oscillate weakly in the short term [4][11]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | March 27 | March 20 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CBOT Soybean | 1159.50 | 1160.50 | - 1.00 | - 0.09% | Cents per bushel | | CNF Import Price: Brazil | 483.00 | 482.00 | 1.00 | 0.21% | Dollars per ton | | CNF Import Price: U.S. Gulf | 517.00 | 512.00 | 5.00 | 0.98% | Dollars per ton | | Brazilian Soybean Crushing Profit on the Futures Market | 29.28 | 109.69 | - 80.41 | - | Yuan per ton | | DCE Bean Meal | 2937.00 | 3029.00 | - 92.00 | - 3.04% | Yuan per ton | | CZCE Rapeseed Meal | 2315.00 | 2423.00 | - 108.00 | - 4.46% | Yuan per ton | | Bean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Price Difference | 622.00 | 606.00 | 16.00 | - | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: East China | 3220.00 | 3330.00 | - 110.00 | - 3.30% | Yuan per ton | | Spot Price: South China | 3280.00 | 3400.00 | - 120.00 | - 3.53% | Yuan per ton | | Spot - Futures Price Difference: South China | 343.00 | 371.00 | - 28.00 | - | Yuan per ton | [5] Market Analysis and Outlook - As of the week of March 19, 2026, the net increase in U.S. soybean export sales for the 2025/2026 season was 669,000 tons, compared with 298,000 tons in the previous week. The cumulative sales volume of U.S. soybeans in the current season was 37.26 million tons, with a sales progress of 86.9%, compared with 89.7% in the same period last year. China's net purchase of U.S. soybeans in that week was 263,000 tons, with a cumulative purchase volume of 11.24 million tons and an unshipped volume of 2.73 million tons [8]. - The U.S. soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 85.549 million acres, higher than the 81.215 million acres planted last year and also exceeding the 85 million acres estimated by the USDA Outlook Forum [8][15]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the gross profit of U.S. soybean crushing (the price difference between soybeans, soybean oil, and soybean meal) was $3.80 per bushel, compared with $3.27 per bushel in the previous week. The spot price of 48% protein soybean meal at soybean processing plants in Illinois was $332.17 per short - ton, compared with $325.63 per short - ton in the previous week. The truck quotation of crude soybean oil in Illinois was 64.76 cents per pound, compared with 66.64 cents per pound in the previous week. The average price of No. 1 yellow soybeans was $11.56 per bushel, compared with $12.16 per bushel in the previous week [9]. - According to the Conab agency, as of March 21, the soybean harvest rate in Brazil was 67.7%, compared with 59.2% last week and 76.4% in the same period last year, with a five - year average of 66.4%. The harvest progress in Mato Grosso was 98.3%, compared with 96.4% last week and 98.8% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in Paraná was 70%, compared with 60% last week and 81% in the same period last year. The harvest progress in South Mato Grosso was 87%, compared with 68% last week and 85% in the same period last year. The Brazilian National Association of Cereal Exporters announced that the estimated soybean export volume in Brazil in March was 15.87 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 16.32 million tons [9]. - According to the report of the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, as of the week of March 26, 2026, the proportion of normal and excellent crop conditions was 82%, compared with 78% in the previous week and 76% in the same period last year. The exchange estimated that the soybean output in the 2025/26 season would remain at 48.5 million tons [10]. - As of the week of March 20, 2026, the soybean inventory of major oil mills was 5.1157 million tons, a decrease of 370,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.5977 million tons compared with the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 670,500 tons, an increase of 43,200 tons from the previous week and a decrease of 78,700 tons compared with the same period last year; the unexecuted contracts were 3.5201 million tons, a decrease of 369,400 tons from the previous week and an increase of 1.783 million tons compared with the same period last year. The soybean inventory at national ports was 5.131 million tons, a decrease of 358,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 2.5255 million tons compared with the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of March 27, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal nationwide was 69,240 tons, including 49,240 tons of spot trading and 20,000 tons of forward trading. The average daily total trading volume in the previous week was 190,000 tons; the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal was 169,800 tons, compared with 168,900 tons in the week before the holiday; the crushing volume of major oil mills was 1.8352 million tons, compared with 1.9905 million tons in the week before the holiday; the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises were 9.35 days, compared with 8.82 days in the previous week [11]. Industry News - According to foreign media reports, agricultural consulting agency AgRural said on Monday that as of last Thursday, the harvest rate of soybeans in Brazil in the 2025/26 season was 68%, an increase of 7 percentage points from the previous week. AgRural also said that as of last Thursday, the sowing rate of the second - season corn in the central - southern region of Brazil in 2026 was 97% [12]. - According to Steel Union data, as of March 20, the total planned shipment volume of soybeans from Brazilian ports to China was 8.538009 million tons. Although slightly lower than last week's 8.660012 million tons, it was still at the highest level in recent years. The corresponding arrival in China is from mid - to late April to early May, and the shipment has increased significantly. In terms of shipments, as of March 20, the total shipment volume from Brazilian ports to China since March was 6.535711 million tons, an increase of 2.624315 million tons from the previous week [13]. - AgMarket.net company reported that it is expected that the U.S. soybean planting area this spring will reach 86.1 million acres, higher than the 85 million acres predicted by the U.S. Department of Agriculture in February. The market is closely watching the planting intention report to be released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture next Monday [13]. - The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of March 13, 2026, Argentine farmers had pre - sold 7.5243 million tons of soybeans in the 2025/26 season, 1.2651 million tons more than a week ago and 6.7064 million tons in the same period last year. The sales pace has accelerated significantly. The total soybean inventory in Argentina in February was 5.2875 million tons, a decrease of 899,500 tons from the previous month. The industrial inventory in Argentina in January was 1.2537 million tons, a decrease of 268,600 tons from the previous month [13]. - According to the European Commission, as of March 22, the import volume of palm oil in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 2.11 million tons, compared with 2.13 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of soybean meal in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 13.23 million tons, compared with 13.72 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of rapeseed in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 3.37 million tons, compared with 5.02 million tons in the same period last year. The import volume of soybeans in the EU in the 2025/26 season was 8.92 million tons, compared with 10.02 million tons in the same period last year [14]. - The Agricultural Economics Department of Paraná State in Brazil (Deral) reported on Tuesday that the harvested area of soybeans in the 2025/26 season in the state had reached 82% of the planted area, an increase of 12 percentage points from the previous week, but lagging behind the 90% harvest progress in the same period of the previous year. Deral said that the soybean harvest in most areas had entered the later stage or was completed, and the work was occasionally suspended due to rainfall. More than 90% of the crops had matured. The weekly report showed that the yield per unit area varied greatly, mainly affected by the uneven distribution of rainfall throughout the growth cycle and drought during the critical period (especially in late - sown areas) [14]. - According to an AgroConsult survey, the soybean output in Brazil in the 2025/26 season will reach 184.7 million tons, higher than the previous expectation of 183.1 million tons, because both the planting area and the expected yield per unit area have been increased. It is estimated that the soybean planting area in Brazil is 49.1 million hectares, an increase of 300,000 hectares from the previous estimate. The national average soybean yield per unit area is also expected to increase from the previous estimate of 62.5 bags per hectare to 62.7 bags per hectare [15]. - The preview of the planting intention area report at the end of the month shows that the U.S. soybean planting area in 2026 is expected to be 85.549 million acres, higher than the 81.215 million acres planted last year and also exceeding the 85 million acres estimated by the USDA Outlook Forum [15]. - The Rural Economic Research Institute of Paraná State in Brazil (Deral) estimated that the soybean crop output in the state in the 2025/26 season would be 21.89 million tons, lower than the 22.12 million tons estimated in February [15]. - The Animal and Plant Health Service (SDA) under the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture issued a document stating that in a meeting with Chinese officials, the two sides reached a consensus and recognized that, given the characteristics of soybean production, it is impossible to ensure that soybeans are completely free of any weed seeds. Based on this consensus, the relevant Chinese departments agreed that the "zero - tolerance" quarantine standard for weeds will no longer be applied to soybean cargoes imported from Brazil for domestic processing purposes. Currently, the specific threshold for acceptable weed content has not been determined and will be finalized through bilateral consultations [16]. Relevant Charts - The report provides multiple charts, including the trend of the U.S. soybean continuous contract, the CNF arrival price of Brazilian soybeans, the RMB spot exchange rate trend, the regional crushing profit, the trend of the soybean meal main contract, the spot prices of soybean meal in different regions, the spot - futures price difference of soybean meal, the spread between the May - September contracts of soybean meal, the net position of managed funds in the CBOT, the precipitation and temperature in the U.S. and Argentine soybean - producing areas, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil, the crop conditions of soybeans in Argentina, the cumulative sales volume, weekly net sales volume, and weekly export volume of U.S. soybeans, the U.S. oil mill crushing profit, the weekly average daily trading volume and pick - up volume of soybean meal, the soybean inventory at ports and in oil mills, the weekly crushing volume of oil mills, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills, the soybean meal inventory in oil mills, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises [17][19][21][22][24][26][28][30][33][34][35][39][42][44].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the misguided public relations strategy of a consumer brand, Huang Tian E, which is engaging in a legal battle with the media instead of managing the situation more effectively. This approach is deemed detrimental to the brand's reputation and financial health in the long run [4][6][20]. Group 1: Media Relations and Brand Image - Huang Tian E's strong response to media allegations, including a formal statement and a lawyer's letter, is seen as a reckless public relations move that could harm the brand [4][6]. - Engaging in a lawsuit against the media can lead to prolonged public scrutiny, which may overshadow the brand's positive attributes and lead to a loss of consumer memory regarding the brand [7][8]. - Historical examples, such as the case of Bawang shampoo, illustrate that winning a legal battle does not guarantee the preservation of brand image, as the brand suffered significant market losses during the litigation period [12][14]. Group 2: Business Model Vulnerability - The agricultural sector, particularly in the egg supply chain, operates on thin profit margins, making it crucial for brands like Huang Tian E to maintain a high price premium based on perceived quality [16]. - The business model relies on rapid cash flow, and any disruption, such as negative media coverage, can lead to immediate financial strain, as retailers may choose to delist products or demand price reductions [17][18]. - Investors in high-premium brands are typically impatient and may withdraw support if the brand's reputation is damaged, leading to potential liquidity crises [18][20]. Group 3: Recommended Strategies - The article suggests that a more prudent approach for brands facing media scrutiny is to avoid confrontation and instead seek private resolution, thereby protecting their fragile business model [18][20]. - Maintaining a low profile and managing disputes quietly can help preserve brand integrity and financial stability in the face of public challenges [18][20].

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs warns that disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz could have significant ripple effects beyond the energy market, particularly impacting global agricultural prices [1] Group 1: Fertilizer Market Impact - The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for the global nitrogen fertilizer market, accounting for approximately 60% of total fertilizer usage, essential for crops like corn and grains [3] - Over a quarter of global nitrogen fertilizer trade and about 20% of liquefied natural gas (a key raw material for fertilizer production) typically pass through the Strait, making the supply chain vulnerable to geopolitical risks [3] - Since the outbreak of conflict in the Middle East, nitrogen fertilizer prices have surged by about 40%, reflecting tightening supply and rising input costs [3] Group 2: Agricultural Production Risks - The report highlights that the greater risk to the agricultural market may stem from decreased crop yields rather than just rising input costs [3] - Fertilizer shortages could lead to reduced yields due to delayed or improper fertilization, and some farmers may shift to crops with lower fertilizer intensity, further tightening grain supply [3] Group 3: Regional Impact Variability - Different regions are expected to experience varying levels of impact; while the U.S. may be relatively insulated in the short term due to pre-season fertilizer purchases, Europe, Australia, and regions in the Southern Hemisphere may face greater disruptions [3] - This situation could increase demand for U.S. grain exports and elevate global prices [3] Group 4: Broader Commodity Market Implications - The conflict underscores the growing role of commodities as a hedge against supply shocks, with a broad risk exposure in the commodity market potentially driving up inflation and hindering global growth [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Trump's proposed visit to China in May is short - term positive for US soybean prices, raising the valuation of domestic protein meal. On the other hand, the customs' relaxation of inspection standards for Brazilian soybean imports is negative for protein meal prices. Overall, the price of protein meal has fluctuated greatly recently, lacking certainty, so it is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude in the short term [12] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information**: Trump plans to visit China from May 14th to 15th, and the two sides are in communication. From March 5th to 12th, the US exported 300,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.79 million tons this year, a year - on - year decrease of 8.84 million tons. The US exported 80,000 tons of soybeans to China during the week, with a cumulative export of 10.98 million tons to China this year, a year - on - year decrease of 10.65 million tons. As of the week of March 20th, 2026, the domestic sample soybean arrival was 16.78 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.48 million tons, and the sample soybean port inventory was 5.13 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52 million tons. The USDA's March forecast for the 2025/26 global soybean production is 427.17 million tons, a decrease of 0.99 million tons from the February forecast and an increase of 0.028 million tons from the previous year. The inventory - to - consumption ratio is 29.54%, a decrease of 0.01 percentage points from February and 0.3 percentage points from the previous year [10] - **Fundamental Assessment**: The multi - empty scores for various indicators such as the US soybean 5 - 7 spread, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and others are given, and the overall short - term recommendation is to wait and see [13] - **Trading Strategy Recommendation**: Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies recommend a wait - and - see approach [14] - **Supply - Demand Balance Tables**: Provide the supply - demand balance tables of global soybeans, US soybeans, Brazilian soybeans, Argentine soybeans, global rapeseeds, and Canadian rapeseeds, including data on beginning inventory, production, import, export, consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio, as well as their环比 and year - on - year changes [15][16][17][18][19][20] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: Present the spot price trends of soybean meal in Guangdong Dongguan and rapeseed meal in Guangdong Huangpu from 2022 to 2026 [24] - **Basis of Main Contracts**: Show the basis trends of the May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [27] - **Inter - month Spread**: Display the 5 - 9 month spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [30] - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread**: Present the spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from 2022 to 2026 [33] 3.3. Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: Include the planting progress, emergence rate, defoliation rate, and good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans from 2021 to 2025 [39][42] - **Weather Conditions**: Compare the precipitation of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina with the same - period average, and provide the precipitation and temperature anomalies of soybean - producing areas [46][49] - **US Soybean Export Progress**: Show the current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds [56][59][62] - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation**: Present the soybean and rapeseed crushing volumes of major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [65] - **Brazilian Soybean Export Situation**: Show the monthly export volume and exports to China of Brazilian soybeans from 2021 to 2025, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipments to China [68][71] - **Argentine Soybean Shipment to China**: Show the weekly and cumulative shipments of Argentine soybeans to China from 2022 to 2026 [74] 3.4. Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory**: Present the port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [79] - **Protein Meal Inventory**: Show the inventory of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [82] - **Protein Meal Crushing Profit**: Display the crushing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas from 2022 to 2026 [85] 3.5. Demand Side - **Protein Meal Demand**: Show the cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills from 2022 to 2026 [88] - **Farming Profit**: Present the per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers from 2022 to 2026 [91]

Group 1 - The article discusses the unexpected decline of gold as an asset during the recent conflict, contrasting with the historical notion that gold benefits from war [2][4] - It highlights a market shift from inflation concerns to growth concerns, indicating that investors are now more worried about economic recession rather than inflation itself [5][6] - The article notes a collective hawkish shift among central banks, particularly the Federal Reserve, which has led to a collapse of rate cut expectations, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold [6][7] Group 2 - The article examines the potential for agricultural products to take over from declining chemical products, emphasizing rising planting costs and the impact of weather patterns on crop yields [15][16] - It discusses the dynamics of different agricultural products, noting that while chemical products are influenced by oil prices, agricultural products have their own growth cycles that may provide more sustained price increases [18][19] - Specific agricultural products are analyzed, such as cotton, which is supported by rising costs and government subsidies, and sugar, which is influenced by oil prices and Brazilian production decisions [21][24] Group 3 - The article outlines the volatility in the methanol market driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the impact of supply disruptions from Iran [73][76] - It presents data showing a significant reduction in methanol imports and rapid depletion of port inventories, indicating a tightening supply situation [78][79] - The domestic supply of methanol is constrained, with high operating rates limiting the ability to compensate for reduced imports, raising concerns about future availability [80][82] Group 4 - The article highlights the complexities of the apple market, noting low inventory levels but also a lack of quality fruit available for delivery, leading to price discrepancies [58][60] - It discusses the impact of consumer behavior and competing fruits on apple demand, suggesting that while there may be short-term spikes in demand, long-term pressures could emerge [62][66] - The article emphasizes the uncertainty surrounding weather conditions in April, which could significantly affect future apple production and pricing [67][70]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou jujube contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.34%. The temperature of grey jujubes in the main producing area of Xinjiang is generally higher than the same period in recent years, and the jujube trees may sprout ahead of schedule. As of March 26, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes this week was 11,459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70% and a year - on - year increase of 6.07%. With the warming weather, jujubes are gradually entering the off - season of consumption. The spot market's purchase and sales atmosphere is relatively light, and downstream buyers mostly maintain a strategy of purchasing on demand, lacking the willingness for centralized restocking. The overall trading activity is not high, and the market trading sentiment is relatively cautious. It is expected that the jujube price will still be in the bottom - building state in the future [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Summary - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou jujube contract rose slightly, with a weekly increase of about 0.34%. The jujube trees in Xinjiang may sprout ahead of schedule. As of March 26, 2026, the inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 0.70% month - on - month and increased by 6.07% year - on - year. The market is in the off - season, and the trading sentiment is cautious. The future jujube price is expected to be in the bottom - building state. Future trading should pay attention to spot prices and the consumer side [9]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures price**: The price of the Zhengzhou jujube 2605 contract rose slightly this week, with a weekly increase of about 0.34% [12]. - **Top 20 positions in futures**: As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in jujube futures was - 19,731 lots [16]. - **Futures warehouse receipts**: As of this week, the number of Zhengzhou jujube warehouse receipts was 4,273 [20]. - **Futures price difference**: As of this week, the price difference between the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange jujube futures 2605 contract and the 2609 contract was - 350 yuan/ton [23]. - **Basis**: As of this week, the basis between the spot price of Hebei grey jujubes and the main contract of jujube futures was 230 yuan/ton [26]. - **Purchase price of bulk jujubes in the main producing area**: As of March 27, 2026, the bulk jujube price in Aksu was 5.15 yuan/kg, in Alar was 5.65 yuan/kg, and in Kashgar was 6.5 yuan/kg [29]. - **Spot price of first - grade jujubes**: As of March 27, 2026, the wholesale price of first - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 3.95 yuan/jin, and in Henan was 4.15 yuan/jin [33]. - **Spot price of special - grade jujubes**: As of March 27, 2026, the spot price of special - grade grey jujubes in Cangzhou, Hebei was 9.10 yuan/kg, and the wholesale price in Henan was 9.50 yuan/kg [37]. 3.3. Industry Chain Situation - **Supply side - Inventory**: As of March 26, 2026, the physical inventory of 36 sample points of jujubes was 11,459 tons, a decrease of 81 tons from last week, a month - on - month decrease of 0.70% and a year - on - year increase of 6.07% [41]. - **Supply side - Production decline possibility**: The jujube production in the 2025/26 production season is expected to decline [45]. - **Demand side - Export volume**: In February 2026, China's jujube export volume was 2,017,112 kg, the export value was 32,204,511 yuan, the export average price was 15,965.65 yuan/ton, the export volume decreased by 56.25% month - on - month and 28.96% year - on - year. The cumulative export from January to February was 6,627,373 kg, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9.71% [49]. - **Demand side - BOCE Xinjiang jujube trading**: This week, the BOCE Xinjiang jujube "Good Brand" had a small amount of orders [54]. 3.4. Options Market and Futures - Stock Association - **Options market**: The implied volatility of at - the - money options for jujubes this week is presented in the relevant chart [55]. - **Stock market - Haoxiangni**: The price - to - earnings ratio chart of Haoxiangni is provided [57].

Report Overview - Report Date: March 27, 2026 [1] - Industry: Agricultural Products - Researchers: Yulan Lan, Zhenlei Lin, Haifeng Wang, Chenliang Hong, Youran Liu [3] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report Core Viewpoints - **Oils and Fats**: The current oils and fats market is mainly driven by external crude oil. With the ongoing Middle - East conflict supporting oil prices, the demand for biofuel raw materials is boosted, keeping the oils and fats sector at a high level. However, if the macro - situation cools down, prices may correct from high levels due to factors like seasonal palm oil production increases, more imported soybeans, and weak demand. [8] - **Corn**: The supply of corn in the spot market is increasing as the temperature rises, but the remaining grassroots grain is limited. The demand from the feed and deep - processing industries is improving, and the overall supply - demand pattern may remain tight. Corn futures prices may be mainly range - bound and strong, but the upside space is limited. [88] - **Hogs**: The supply of hogs remains abundant, and although the demand is slowly recovering, the supply - demand situation is still loose. Spot prices are expected to be weak and volatile, and futures prices of contracts 05/07 are expected to trend weakly. [131] - **Cotton**: The external cotton market is strong, while the domestic market lacks new driving forces. Short - term prices are range - bound and rising. Attention should be paid to the new cotton planting expectations and actual planting conditions for the 2026/27 season. [137] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oils and Fats - **Market Review and Operation Suggestions**: The oils and fats market is driven by external crude oil. The Middle - East conflict supports oil prices and biofuel demand. It is recommended to buy at low prices and reduce positions when crude oil surges sharply. If the macro - situation cools down, prices may correct. [8] - **Core Points** - **Domestic Spot Changes**: As of March 27, 2025, the price of first - grade soybean oil in East China increased by 130 yuan/ton weekly, the price of third - grade rapeseed oil in East China decreased by 80 yuan/ton, and the price of 24 - degree palm oil in South China decreased by 100 yuan/ton. [10] - **Domestic Three - Oils Inventory**: As of the end of the 12th week of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China was 203.48 million tons, a weekly decrease of 2.09 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.02%, and a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. [20] - **Domestic Oilseeds Supply**: The soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills decreased slightly, and the import soybean inventory in ports decreased. The crushing rate of imported rapeseed increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [21][28] - **Palm Oil Dynamics**: In March 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased, and the export data was strong, supporting the price of palm oil. [34][38] - **CFTC Positions**: Speculative funds reduced their net long positions in CBOT soybeans for the first time in eight weeks, set a record high in net long positions in Chicago soybean oil, and continued to buy net in the CBOT soybean meal futures market for the eighth consecutive week. [42] 3.2 Corn - **Market Review**: The national corn price was adjusted narrowly in the range this week. The futures price of the main 2605 contract on the Dalian Exchange fell by 8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. [46] - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Corn Supply**: The grain - selling progress continued to increase this week, with an overall slowdown compared to the same period last year. The inventory in northern ports increased, and the inventory in southern ports decreased. [49][50][52] - **Domestic Substitutes**: The wheat market was weak this week, and the price gap between corn and wheat widened. [53] - **Imported Substitute Grains**: In January - February 2026, the import of grains increased year - on - year, and the import of some grains increased significantly. The import profit of Brazilian corn is high, and the substitution advantage of imported grains still exists. [54] - **Feed Demand**: From January to February 2026, the national industrial feed output increased year - on - year. The feed demand is expected to continue to increase slightly due to the growth of hog inventory. The average inventory time of feed enterprises increased. [67][73][76] - **Deep - processing Demand**: The starch production rate and output increased, and the processing profit improved. The corn inventory of deep - processing enterprises increased. [80][81] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the corn planting area, yield, and output in China are expected to increase, the import volume remains unchanged, and the demand is expected to increase. [85] - **Outlook and Strategy**: The spot price of corn is expected to be mainly range - bound and strong, and the futures price of contracts 2605/07 is expected to be the same, but the upside is limited. Spot enterprises are recommended to replenish inventory on a rolling basis, and futures investors are recommended to hold long - term long positions and reduce positions on rallies. [88][89] 3.3 Hogs - **Market Review**: This week, the spot price of hogs continued to fall, and the futures price of the main contract LH2605 also declined. The supply was abundant, and the demand was seasonally weak. [90][92] - **Fundamental Overview** - **Long - term Supply**: The price of binary sows decreased. The theoretical pig slaughter volume is expected to change based on the inventory of breeding sows, with a slight increase in the first half of the year. [97][98][99] - **Medium - term Supply**: The price of piglets decreased, and the inventory of piglets decreased slightly. The theoretical pig slaughter volume is expected to change accordingly. [108] - **Short - term Supply**: The inventory of large hogs increased in February, and the proportion of large hogs over 140 kg decreased. The secondary fattening situation was average. [110][111] - **Current Supply**: The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in March increased, and the average slaughter weight increased slightly. [114][115] - **Import Supply**: In January - February 2026, the cumulative import volume of pork decreased year - on - year. [121] - **Secondary Fattening Demand**: The enthusiasm for secondary fattening weakened, and the cost decreased. [125] - **Slaughter Demand**: The slaughtering rate of enterprises increased, and it is expected to rise slightly during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. [129][130] - **Outlook**: The spot price of hogs is expected to be weak and volatile, and the futures price of contracts 05/07 is expected to trend weakly. Futures investors are recommended to hold short positions and reduce positions on dips. Hog - farming enterprises are recommended to hold hedging short positions and reduce positions as they slaughter. [131] 3.4 Cotton - **Weekly Review and Operation Suggestions**: The external cotton market was strong, and Zhengzhou cotton closed up in a range. The domestic spot cotton basis weakened, and the downstream market was generally trading. The USDA March supply - demand report was bearish, but the market has focused on the 2026/27 season. Attention should be paid to the USDA cotton planting intention survey results. [135][136][137] - **Core Points** - **Main Cotton - Producing Countries**: The USDA March supply - demand report adjusted the global cotton supply - demand situation for the 2025/26 season, increasing the output, trade volume, and ending inventory, and reducing the consumption. [138] - **US Cotton Exports**: As of the week of March 19, 2025/2026, the net signing and shipment of US cotton increased week - on - week. [145] - **Textile Enterprises**: As of March 20, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises increased, the yarn inventory decreased, the fabric inventory decreased, and the operating load of yarn and fabric increased. [147] - **Basis and Inter - month Spread**: As of March 27, 2026, the basis of the cotton 05 contract and the 5 - 9 spread both decreased. [158] - **CFTC Positions and Domestic Registered Warehouse Receipts**: As of March 17, the non - commercial net long positions in US cotton increased. As of March 26, the total number of domestic cotton registered warehouse receipts increased. [160]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - Corn futures prices are oscillating at a high level. The international oil price is high due to the ongoing conflict between the US and Iran, which boosts the freight and international corn prices. In the domestic market, the willingness of grain holders to sell has increased with the rising purchase price, but the risk of mildew has also risen due to high - temperature, leading to more high - moisture grain supply. The processing enterprise inventory has slightly increased, and the price increase is under pressure. The wheat substitution effect has strengthened, and the rumored rice auction in April may also have a negative impact on corn prices. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. - Corn starch futures prices have risen and then fallen. The supply of raw material corn has increased, leading to a higher operating rate of corn starch enterprises and increased supply pressure. The inventory has also slightly increased. However, the starch spot market performs well supported by the good price of raw material corn. The short - term market may remain volatile [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - week Summary - **Corn** - The closing price of the main 2605 contract is 2369 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton from last week. The international situation boosts international corn prices, while in the domestic market, the supply and demand situation is complex, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to participate in the short - term [6]. - **Corn Starch** - The closing price of the main 2605 contract is 2755 yuan/ton, a decrease of 43 yuan/ton from last week. The supply pressure has increased, but the spot market is supported by raw material prices. The short - term market may remain volatile [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price and Position Changes** - The corn futures May contract oscillated at a high level, with a total position of 1,124,900 lots, a decrease of 191,807 lots from last week. The corn starch futures May contract rose and then fell, with a total position of 254,131 lots (compared with 284,736 lots last week), a decrease of 30,605 lots [14]. - **Top 20 Net Position Changes** - The net position of the top 20 in corn futures is - 142,948, compared with - 196,157 last week, and the net short position has decreased. The net position of the top 20 in starch futures is - 21,269, compared with - 15,209 last week, and the net short position has increased [20]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipts** - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn are 59,377 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch are 4,650 lots [26]. - **Spot Price and Basis** - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of corn is 2,452.55 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active May contract of corn and the spot average price is + 76.55 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin is 2,900 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 3,020 yuan/ton, with a decline this week. The basis between the May contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin is + 145 yuan/ton [31][35]. - **Futures Inter - month Spread** - The 5 - 7 spread of corn is - 18 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 5 - 7 spread of starch is - 15 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level in the same period [42]. - **Futures Spread** - The spread between the May contract of starch and corn is 386 yuan/ton. As of this Friday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch is 670 yuan/ton [52]. - **Substitute Spread** - As of March 26, 2026, the average spot price of wheat is 2,590.56 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn is 2,452.55 yuan/ton. The wheat - corn spread is 138.01 yuan/ton. In the 12th week of 2026, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch is 819 yuan/ton, narrowing by 16 yuan/ton compared with last week [57]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Situation - **Corn** - **Supply Side** - As of March 20, 2026, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port is 23.4 tons, a decrease of 5.10 tons from last week; the foreign trade inventory is 14.7 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons from last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports is 254.1 tons, an increase of 35.9 tons week - on - week; the shipping volume in the four northern ports is 63.5 tons, a decrease of 11.7 tons week - on - week [46]. - The overall progress of domestic corn sales is 81% as of March 26, 2026, an increase of 3% from March 19, 2026, and a decrease of 6% compared with the same period in 2025 [59]. - In February 2026, the total import volume of ordinary corn is 17.00 tons, the lowest this year, an increase of 9.00 tons (112.50%) compared with the same period last year, and a decrease of 20.00 tons compared with the previous month [63]. - As of March 26, the average inventory of feed enterprises is 31.57 days, an increase of 1.30 days from last week, a week - on - week increase of 4.29%, and a year - on - year decrease of 6.01% [67]. - **Demand Side** - At the end of 2025, the national pig inventory is 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million (0.5%) compared with the end of the previous year. Among them, the inventory of breeding sows is 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million (2.9%) [71]. - As of March 27, the breeding profit of purchased piglets is - 189.87 yuan/head, a decrease of 48.39 yuan/head; the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs is - 344.24 yuan/head, a decrease of 46.56 yuan/head [75]. - As of March 26, 2026, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin is 34 yuan/ton. The corn alcohol processing profit in Henan is - 399 yuan/ton, in Jilin is - 503 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang is 81 yuan/ton [80]. - **Corn Starch** - **Supply Side** - As of March 25, 2026, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions is 406.3 tons, an increase of 7.80% [84]. - From March 19 to March 25, 2026, the total corn processing volume in the country is 63.99 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons from last week; the weekly corn starch output is 33.36 tons, an increase of 1.19 tons from last week; the weekly operating rate is 60.98%, an increase of 2.18% from last week. As of March 25, the total starch inventory of corn starch enterprises in the country is 121.7 tons, an increase of 1.40 tons from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.16%, a month - on - month increase of 1.59%, and a year - on - year decrease of 10.71% [88]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - As of March 27, the implied volatility of the options corresponding to the main 2605 contract of corn is 10.63%, a decrease of 1.81% from 12.44% last week. The implied volatility has oscillated and declined this week, at a relatively high level compared with the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatilities [91].